Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Blankiturayman]

Let's see...
Chance: 70%
Pretty high in comparison to most of my ratings lately but yeah, I think it's more likely than not than all the costumes come back, even if one of them happens to be promoted to playable. I'd be more surprised overall if they didn't all come back, but it certainly isn't impossible. It just more than anything feels natural that they'd return. They've been slowly bringing them back with every character, almost without fail, so it's only a matter of time before they even run out of "returning" costumes to use. The ones remaining are pretty decisive as most of them could be characters proper (barring maybe Chocobo) so I wonder if whether one of these is "promoted" the costume wouldn't return. I could see them bringing the costumes back just to have them in that case, since it wouldn't take all that much work, probably.

As for the "deluxe" upgrades, I don't find that as likely. As it's gone so far most of the returning costumes have returned just "as is" from 4. The "deluxe" treatment seems to be reserved mainly for new costumes. Though, it definitely isn't impossible, there just hasn't been a precedent yet. We'd have to wait and see to see if this happens or not, but I'd say it'd be simpler for the devs to just bring back the already-made costumes from 4 as they have until now. Though it is worth noting that some costumes have been modified, such as Gil if I recall correctly, so again, not impossible.

Want: 40%
I'll be honest, I'd rather some of these were playable characters proper, but aside from that: I think I'd be alright with it. Pretty much just giving a neutral score here because I've been thinking it could happen it up until this point, but it's not something I'm all that excited about. Just good to get remaining content. Besides, out of the remaining ones, I'd probably get a few. It would be nice if they did get upgrades because some looked pretty rough in 4.

Noms: Worms x10

 

[Lionfranky]

Mii costumes return...

Chance: 85%

Yeah, I am giving this high chance due to previous pattern. It's easy to reuse previous assets. The only roadblock would be licensing issue, but that's much hassle for something less significant like Mii costumes. I can see all of them returning. The only one who could see upgrade is Monster Hunter imo, but that's still not guarantee. Considering how Bandai Namco hasn't been getting much favor, I doubt they are enthusiastic about getting another playable, let alone Nintendo and Sakurai.

Want: 90%

I'm all for it mostly because it would put an end to few long lasting speculations. Although Bandai Namco doesn't seem to be willing to go further, Lloyd costume returning means higher chance for Agumon who is one of my most wanted. I just want Geno speculation put to rest. And I want Dante or Phoenix Wright over Monster Hunter.

Nom: Characters that don't have their games on Nintendo platform x 10

 

[Sari]

Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment)

Chance: 60%
Unless one of these characters becomes playable I think this is probably going to happen. I’ll go through all of the characters one by one and see how likely they are to become playable:

• Monster Hunter + Rathalos costume: Could possibly become a character to promote the new MH games next year, but at the same time the costumes could do that as well. Can easily be paired together for a single release that's for sure.
• Geno: For Geno it's pretty much a 50/50 at this point in that he'll either be a character or a costume. I do think that if Geno isn't going to be a character then he is definitely going to be deluxe costume'd. It just makes too much sense.
• Lloyd: With each character reveal I've been becoming less and less confident in Lloyd's chances especially after what happened to Heihachi. I won't be surprised at all if he gets costume'd next. I think Lloyd is 100% going to appear in Ultimate but it'll either be as a costume or a character.
• Chocobo Hat: I speak for pretty much everyone in that this is the least likely character to become playable. Unless licensing issues with SE are a thing, we will definitely be seeing this again.

A bit off-topic but I just can't see more than one of these characters getting promoted. So if Geno gets in then I feel like Lloyd is done for. Not much to go off that assumption but it's just a hunch.

Want: Abstain
I’ll abstain from a want score. Granted I don’t really like Geno and never got all that attached to Lloyd, but actively rooting against a character's chances feels a bit mean-spirited so I won't give a score.

Nominations:
Mii Costume: 2B x10

 

[Megadoomer]

Chance: 50%. I could see most of them returning as Mii costumes (as we saw with Heihachi and Gil, Namco-Bandai seems content to have their Mii costumes return at random, even if they have nothing to do with the character that's being revealed), but there are a few that I'm questioning. Mainly Geno and Monster Hunter (though I guess that could be justified by it being different sets of armour, as opposed to a specific Monster Hunter character), though Lloyd might stand a chance at being made playable. (maybe? I'm not super familiar with the Tales Of series - I've only played enough of Symphonia to get the full party) Chocobo and at least one of the Monster Hunter costumes seem likely to return, but the other three don't feel like a guarantee.

Want: 10%. I've wanted in Geno in Smash for at least 15 or 16 years now, so to see him relegated to a Mii costume again would be annoying. It would be like K. Rool in Smash 4, or Isaac being brought back as an assist trophy at the last minute, all over again - a Mii costume is a poor substitute for a playable character when it comes to a character with a ton of demand behind them. (it's a poor substitute for a playable character in general, but for characters like Sans or Travis Touchdown, I just found it impressive that they got into Smash in some form) While I'd prefer other Capcom or Bandai-Namco characters, I can't say that I'd want popular choices to be confirmed as not being playable.

 

[BowserKing]

Remaining Mii Costumes return

Chance: 40%. If they have the Chocobo Costume return, I would be proud that we get Final Fantasy Mii Costumes. Monster Hunter and Lloyd costumes would more likely to appear. As for Geno, I think he is likely to be playable.

Want: 60%. It is not Higher, since I want Geno to be a playable fighter. But the other Mii Costumes would be just as fun as the other Mii Costumes. That is all I am saying for that.

Deluxe Treatment

Chance: 5%. I don’t really see this happen, since the returning Mii Costumes are not in Deluxe treatment, so it would not make sense to make those deluxe. Besides that, it’s clear that they will not be deluxe Costumes.

Want: 50%. I think Deluxe Mii Costumes are best saved for characters who don’t have Mii Costumes yet, like Gardivoir or Glass Joe. But I am now completely against the idea, but I don’t know how long it will take.

Noms: 5 for Stage: Bowser’s Castle

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Smash 4 Mii Costumes Return

Chance: 90% - I'm very confident that this is happening. It was just a hunch with Heihachi but with Gil returning with Steve, every costume is on point to return. If we group the two Monster Hunter costumes together (as they're from the same franchise), then we have one IP of Mii Costume returning with each remaining character. 4 IPs, 4 costumes. Aside from potentially Geno (due to his Smash fanbase popularity), I don't see any of the current miis being upgraded to Deluxe. Monster Hunter is heavily speculated to get a Mii Costume upgrade but not every big game gets a promotion (though they could always upgrade one Hunter costume and keep the other, who knows), and I don't see any of the others getting an upgrade, from Namco's conservatism in adding characters to heavy competition within Square Enix, I'm honestly expecting these guys to stay Mii Costumes. Plus the licenses would be easy to get (though I'm only a bit uneasy on Square), I don't see why not.

Want: 100% - So many of my favorite characters benefit from this that I have to give it a high rating. Lloyd being out means that both major obstacles are out of the way for the Prince of All Cosmos (though Namco's lack of character additions still hurts him). Monster Hunter being out means that Phoenix Wright basically becomes the Capcom frontrunner, while Monster Hunter could also pair well with Dragonborn, another of my most wanted. I'd love to add in Square into this, but Gex has many other hurdles that this would end up irrelevant. I'd be very happy if this happens, and while I'd feel sad for fans of characters like Lloyd, it still helps several of my most wanted characters heavily.


Nominations:
4x Strategy Rep x5
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x5

 

[Champion of Hyrule]

Chance: 30% I don’t think all of them would get promoted, but Monster Hunter and Lloyd have a pretty good chance in my book since Heihachi got in. I’m not sure about deluxe treatment, though

Want: 50% Monster Hunter armour would be perfect as a Mii Costume, but I would prefer Lloyd and Geno as playable characters

Noms: Captain Syrup x5

 

[ahemtoday]

All SSB4 Costumes Return

Chance: 95%

This is probably the highest chance rating I'll ever give. This is because I think the only thing that would keep these costumes out of the game is if they got in as a character. Although saying it like that makes me wonder if even that's necessarily a hurdle. In any case, I'm basically betting against these characters, and as someone who doesn't think anyone is likely, I can actually go above 50% on this one. Even having five characters who all have to be deconfirmed can't stop me here, because I don't think any of them is in.

• Monster Hunter is already represented via the Rathalos boss fight. Even with ARMS, which was in a similar situation, getting a fighter, it would strike me as strange to do the same for a third-party series. Same goes for the Rathalos armor.
• Lloyd is probably the one of these that actually stands a chance in my opinion. Still, like I said, I don't think any character can be called likely, if only for the sheer amount of candidates.
• Geno's never struck me as particularly likely. Yes, he has fan requests, and Sakurai expressed interest in adding him once like ten years ago, but we got Piranha Plant at this point, so I think it's clear he has other priorities.
• Chocobo is not getting in a fighter. I apologize to all the Chocobo fans.

Want: Abstain

Yeah, this is a little too broad for my tastes. There's a character that I dislike in here, but I'm not willing to put characters I have no real opinion on in the crossfire for that.

Noms: Junpei x9, Filia x1

 

[Megadoomer]

• Geno's never struck me as particularly likely. Yes, he has fan requests, and Sakurai expressed interest in adding him once like ten years ago, but we got Piranha Plant at this point, so I think it's clear he has other priorities

To clear up some misconceptions here: the interview was four years ago (at the tail end of Smash 4's development, or after development had finished), and Geno (much like Chocobo) is owned by Square-Enix, so Piranha Plant's inclusion has nothing to do with his chances. (They're owned by different companies)

 

[chocolatejr9]

Concept: Remaining Mii Costumes Return

Chance: 95%
Honestly, I think Cutie Gwen put it best. All of the remaining Mii costumes can easily be paired up with other characters. The Monster Hunter costumes can go with pretty much any Capcom rep. Likewise, Geno and Chocobo can go with any Square Enix rep. Heck, if we look at what happened with Heihachi and Gil, then you could argue Lloyd can come with literally ANY JRPG character. To put it bluntly, it's a matter of WHEN these costumes come back, not IF.

Abstain on want. I don't have any opinions on these costumes.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma x10 (I believe I did enough for extra noms)

 

[Inue Houji]

Mii Costumes return
Chance: 15%
I'm all in on Lloyd, so I doubt it. They could potentially add someone like Yuri instead, or just have the costume in addition, but that's not likely.
I'm doubtful on the chocobo costume too, with how difficult working with Square Enix seems to be.

Want: 1%
I want Lloyd, and a mii costume is more likely to deconfirm him than not.
Even so, I doubt I'll ever buy a Mii costume unless they come with a music track.

Nominations
Beat x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Gil's out, who's next?

For this concept's chances, I'll just divide the score in 5 and assign up to 20% to each costume depending on how confident I am that it'll return (or get upgraded to premium).

Monster Hunter and Rathalos Armor: I've paired these two together because they're from the same franchise and thus would probably come under the same circumstances. Anyway, with Capcom's Mii Costumes steadily returning in groups (think the X and .EXE costumes), I think it's all but guaranteed that these two also return. It could be with any character marginally related to Monster Hunter (the connection between Minecraft and Gil is tenuous, but it's there), or with a Capcom character. Much has been made about Monster Hunter's chances and I agree that it's a strong possibility, but even if Monster Hunter is a playable character I think the Mii Costumes would still return, a la Erdrick coming with an Erdrick's Armor Mii Costume (which technically isn't Erdrick's outfit but rather the DQ I protagonist's outfit but I digress). These two bring the score up to 40%

Lloyd Irving: he could go either way. He's easily Bandai Namco's frontrunner, and possibly the only one of their characters that has a realistic shot at playability. But Bandai Namco's blatant disinterest in having their characters playable and the steady pattern of their Mii Costumes also returning really makes me lean towards Lloyd being a Mii Costume with some other JRPG protagonist. I'll give him 15%, bringing the score up to 55%.

Chocobo: Chocobo is coming back. There's no doubt about it. The only way I could see Chocobo not coming back is if Square Enix isn't having a DLC character at all, but I see it the other way; I'm confident that Square Enix is getting a DLC character because there's still two Mii Costumes that haven't returned and I don't see those coming with a non-SE fighter. Square Enix loves DLC and I doubt they'd be leaving that money on the table. And given the identity of our last Mii Costume, who I doubt won't be in Ultimate in either capacity, it all adds up to us getting our bird-horse back. Chocobo gets 20%, so we're up to 75%.

Geno: of course it was going to come down to Geno. That's, like, the unofficial motto of Smashboards. But, yeah, Geno is either Square Enix's third fighter or a Mii Costume coming with Square Enix's third fighter. I don't see a timeline where the Geno costume is mysteriously absent (and I don't want to see it, given the theories that would inevitably emerge). I'll say it's a coin toss as to which is which. Out of all of the Mii Costumes he's also easily the one I see getting the premium treatment; Smash fans' love for him would make the extra work and licensing for Beware the Forest's Mushrooms worth it cash-wise. (I'd say Chocobo is second in line for premium treatment, but the Mii Fighter proportions might be a bad fit for a full body Chocobo costume and song licensing might be more expensive for that). Let's give Geno 10% and that brings the total to 85%

Want: 0%
The only one of these characters I don't want to see playable is Chocobo. Every other Mii Costume would be a waste in my book, since I don't even buy them. Getting Beware the Forest's Mushrooms would be cool, but I'd rather gamble on Geno being playable as he would bring that song anyway. There's zero reason for me to want this to happen.

Noms: I wanted to nominate Agent 47 but he has no support thread! You've let me down, Smashboards...
So, anyway, while I work on making the best Hitman thread I can, I'll nominate the next character on my list. Marina Liteyears x10!

 

[Jomosensual]

Mii Costumes return

Chance 90 - Think there's a really good chance given how recent trends have gone with the mii costumes. Chocobo isn't going to be a playable character so I have no doubt it's coming back in the future. Lloyd seems less likely as all the Bandi Namco costumes keep coming back while the remaining DLC character spots shrink with no new BN characters coming in each time. Monster Hunter isn't usually repped by the hunter itself so I expect to see it back too. Geno is the only real question it seems. Think he's either a costume or a character, leaning deluxe costume at the moment but would not be surprised at all if he's a fighter

Want 50 - I don't really care either way. Chocobo isn't going to be playable so I don't care if it's a Mii costume or not. Lloyd I'd like but if he's not in it wouldn't break my heart. I don't really want Monster Hunter due to his competition being more interesting to me. Geno I'd like to see to finally just end the saga. So yeah, 2 I don't cares, 1 yes, and 1 no for returning as Mii Costumes roughly comes back to an even 50%.

Predictions:
Some very mad Smash fans again

Noms:
John Marston x5
Riptor x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Everyone Mii costume is here!

Chance: 50%

This one is very difficult for me to rate. Let's break this down.

Chocobo - Definitely not going to be a character despite how iconic it is. I do think there is going to be a Square Enix character in this pass and Square does seem to want any content of theirs attached to the same Mii costume wave. So I think this is going to happen with how many Square characters are in contention.

Monster Hunter costumes - I do think Monster Hunter is more likely than not to be playable. But even if he does get playable status I can see both Mii costumes returning because at least in my eyes they won't be redundant and hey they have already been created so either way I think they will be brought back eventually. Even if a Capcom character doesn't happen they did get a bunch of costumes last pass without any playable characters.

Lloyd Irving - Up until now I have been leaning on this concept being more likely than not but here is where some doubt kicks in. See, I get that Bamco has seemingly been chilling in the background, not worrying about getting anymore characters in Smash. I get that, but I still have a feeling they might get a character in this pass. And if Lloyd gets in, there is no point in bringing back his costume. But to be fair there are several other characters in Bamco's library that could get in and if they did, Lloyd's costume would undoubtedly follow.

Geno - This is the big reason why I chose a 50%. I don't like giving out 50% as it feels too easy, but it's exactly how I feel. Geno is definitely getting something, and I'm 50/50 on him being a deluxe Mii costume or a playable character. It's hard to know where to lean as Geno is the biggest anomaly in Smash speculation so both scenarios could easily happen.

So overall, I'm just going to say this is either happening or not. There are still many factors in play so I can't say for sure where to lean on this topic.

Want: Abstain

First thing I want to say is that I do want all of these to come back in some shape or form. But I do not want all of these characters to come back as Mii costumes. I would not mind Chocobo as a Mii costume and with Lloyd I don't really care because I want other Bamco characters more than him so I would not be upset seeing him as a Mii costume. I would not mind seeing the Monster Hunter costumes come back if they come with a playable Monster Hunter, otherwise I would be disappointed if they come back by themselves with no playable character because that kills the chances of a rep happening. Though I guess either way I would not mind the Mii costumes returning as it is more Monster Hunter content so in that sense it would be good. As for Geno, I do want to see him become playable. I would be fine with him getting the deluxe treatment as long as he comes with Beware the Forest's Mushrooms but if he is coming, I would rather it be in playable form.

So just like most concepts with multiple characters, I can't choose a single score.

Noms: Among Us character x10

 

[Perkilator]

I believe we should be predicting TGA now?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I believe we should be predicting TGA now?

Sorry my doggo needed a walk and was holding me up from posting this.

Geno/MH/Lloyd rerate with extra steps

35% Chance

This is not me copping out and just saying lol it might happen who knows. I feel this hinges on all three not getting into Smash. I'm just gonna exclude Chocobo for a hot second since it is not happening and lump Rathalos into MH.

Lloyd: Oh how the mighty have fallen. I once when I was optimistic that we could see 3+ seasons of DLC thought Lloyd was a strong choice. Now with 7 DLC characters added via the passes Namco has still chosen not to get content. A prime competitor for the Namco slot, Heihachi, was Mii Costumed in June. Normally, You think that would help Lloyd. But the longer the game goes and the more of Sm4shs mii costumes keep coming, it feels almost inevitable that Lloyd would get Mii Costumed. Another thing that I think hurts him is that being frank, Lloyd got a lot of mileage out of ToS being a staple game on the Gamecube. I feel that Tales having a decent history as a long running rpg for a time overshadowed other choices, namely from say Falcom. Nowadays, I would argue that Adol (and to a lesser extent Estelle and Rean) has with him. I think though what hurts him the most is Namco's ambivalence to putting anyone else into Smash from their library. Maybe Nintendo and Sakurai are avoiding doing so to appear as if they are biased. The point stands, Namco seems hesistant to outright put in more content. If he somehow doesn't and we get a Season 3 (which I always will stress is super likely), I would change my tune a bit.

Monster Hunter (Rathalos armor too I guess): Monster Hunter is weird to speculate on. On paper, it makes so much sense to get into the game. Capcom is friendly with Nintendo. MH is huge and just got its international breakthrough. And yet... I do not feel as confident in this one. I guess my main beef is the fact that we have Rathalos as a boss. This gives me the gut hunch that perhaps this is the extent of MH content we might get. In the past (at least prior to MvC I) we know the MH team wanted in crossovers their representation to be primarily the monsters. While that changed in MvC I, it might have genuinely lead to MH getting Rathalos as a boss/AT instead of a character. I think MH makes a ton of sense when you put Rathalos aside. When you include it into the discussion, MH is in this weird limbo. I would say that imo MH makes by far the most sense overall for another Capcom character. I would prefer Amaterasu, Dante, or Phoenix Wright, but speaking frankly, MH just makes the most sense. I Think MH is the hardest of the three to discuss, because it all hinges on how you feel about MH getting more content afterwords. I think it is a decently likely outcome, but the minute those Mii Costumes show up its dead as disco.

Geno: Oooh boy. The big one. The one everyone wants to talk about. Let me start with this. I am 100% certain Geno will show up in this game. Whether it is as his Sm4sh Mii Costume, an upgraded deluxe Mii Costume, or as a character is up in the air. I say this all the time on the RTC discord, but Geno is the most unique character in speculation. This is a character with one game that did not even come to Europe. From a Mario Spin off. That is owned by another company. If the character did not have the fan demand that he had, Geno would not be even entertained right now. In fact, in Sm4sh speculation, he actually was not entertained that much. Compare the Sm4sh geno thread to his thread now. People seemed resigned to the fate of it never happening. And then Cloud showed up with a Geno Mii Costume, and Sakurai mentioned liking the character. Suddenly, the world seemed brighter for Geno fans. I know RTC is a mediocre method of this sort of speculation, but look at it like this. In Sm4sh, Geno struggled to get any strong ratings in chance, and his want was below 40% at points. Now, Geno is someone who creeps into the top tiers of want and chance. The Everyone is here motif and fan requests have helped the little guy a ton. In particular, Banjo, K Rool, and Ridley all show that these longstanding fan requests are being looked at somewhat realistically. So, he is happening, right? Well... here's the thing. Geno has a ton of popularity, but he has just that. Unlike those other characters, Geno's future is basically non existent. Even the Banjo franchise, which is dead right now, is probably going to get revived at some point and get a game or two ported to the switch. Geno is not going to do anything for a long time until SMRPG 2 exists. And that is a huge if. Unless that game ever comes out, Geno has no future outside of Smash. This is a character that only really is talked about because in no small part his fan demand is quite large (especially on here). I have not even dived into his competition. I could easily see Square wanting to push a newer face that would get them more publicity to their games, such as 2B and especially right now Neku. Regardless, Geno has a solid shot, but it is not super likely.

Basically I went through and subtracted the % of each character happening, leading me here.

0% Want

Look, I am fine if Geno does not come. I play Mii gunner a lot and I am a huge Neku stan. I also would not be lying if I said that I would rather have another Capcom character than MH. But I still want Lloyd man. I love ToS. I love Lloyd's design. I think the character would be a ton of fun to have in Smash, in no small part because his game is one of the best on the Gamecube. It also does not help that I despise playing as Mii Swordfighter, arguably in my opinion one of not only the five worst characters competitively, but also one of my least favorite characters to play as. I would want a character I care about to get something more.

Neku x 10

TGA predictions time. Predict new announcements, what you expect, etc. Maybe the categories if ya want, go nuts.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Literally all I expect is this

TGA's never worth staying awake at like 1-5AM on a work day either way so I don't care.

Velvet Crowe x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Only in Smash speculation can playing dress-up spell doom.

Chance: 55%. While I can believe it is going to happen, I'm not too sure it's guaranteed, especially as I think at least three of the four have something of a case. I am pretty sure Geno's is either coming back or getting a remake because I can't see him in at all, but in Monster Hunter and Lloyd's cases while I no longer actively predict them I could still see them happening, and even Geno could surprise me. Really, only Chocobo's is guaranteed to come back. However, I think it's likelier than not that all of these return.

Want: 60%. I really don't exactly care about Mii Costumes one way or the other. This would most likely shoot down Lloyd, who I do want, but if it isn't Arle it's only a minor pain to see somebody get kicked out. Oh well. And besides, as much content as possible is fine. I've more or less stopped wanting Geno entirely and Monster Hunter is somebody who I'm not particularly interested in.

Arle x 5. Can't BS my way to a x 10 this time. One houring again.

As for TGA predictions... no Smash. If there is, it will probably be a third party notable in the west, including Crash, Fortnite, Team Fortress 2 and whatnot. Aside from that, I don't know what to expect, but I will be watching to see if Among Us takes the positions it was given as well as a teaser for the new map.

 

[Perkilator]

I only expect one thing:

TLoU ****ing 2 will win in at least one category.

As for wants, I only wish for a CP8 reveal (not that I expect it).

Vectorman: 1%

Noms:
Crazy Dave x5

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I only expect one thing:

TLoU2 ****ing 2 will win in at least one category.

As for wants, I only wish for a CP8 reveal (not that I expect it).

Noms:
Crazy Dave x5

Ah yes.

My favourite game


The Last Of Us 2... 2

 

[Sari]

The Game Award Predictions 2020

Games that I think will win each category:

Spoiler: TGA Winner Predictions

• GOTY: TLOU2 OR Ghosts of Tsushima (leaning more towards TLOU2)
• Best Game Direction: TLOU2
• Best Narrative: TLOU2
• Best Art Direction: Ori and the Will of the Wisps OR Hades
  • Probably the only award I think TLOU2 won't win. If it actually does win this then I'm probably just gonna turn off the show.
• Best Music: TLOU2
• Best Audio Design: TLOU2
• Best Performance: Ellie or Abby (I'm thinking maybe Abby because of all the death threats Laura Bailey got for it)
• Games for Impact: Tell Me Why (just a guess, never heard of these games until now)
• Best Ongoing: Fortnite
• Best Indie: Hades (if not that then probably Fall Guys)
• Best Mobile Game: Among Us
• Best Community Support: Fortnite
• Best VR/AR: Half-Life: Alyx
• Innovation in Accessibility: TLOU2
• Best Action: Uh... Doom Eternal? (this is a hard one)
• Best Action/Adventure: TLOU2
• Best Role-playing: FFVII Remake
• Best Fighting: MK11 Ultimate
• Best Family: Animal Crossing: New Horizons
• Best Sim/Strategy: XCOM Chimera Squad
• Best Sports/Racing: Tony Hawk Pro Skater 1+2 OR FIFA 21
• Best Multiplayer: CoD: Warzone

Not even gonna attempt to guess the content creators and tournament related nominees because I know literally nothing about them.

TL;DR I think The Last of Us 2 is going to win just about everything.

Now for games that I want to win... only thing I'm really rooting for is Streets of Rage 4 in the Best Action category (unlikely but let me dream).

In regards to Smash, I'm exactly 50/50 on whether we'll get a reveal or not. If we do get a reveal then As for the Smash character I'm gonna guess it'll be Fortnite/Jonesy because what better way to end this insane year than with this? Some other characters I have a hunch on happening are Crash, Neku, Phoenix Wright, Ryu Hayabusa, and Trevor from GTA for some reason.

Other predictions:

• A lame comedy skit involving Among Us.
• Lots of Fortnite ads/cringe.
• Someone who wins an award says something stupid/cringeworthy.
• The Wolf Among Us II trailer (it's been literally an entire year with basically no news on it).
• Tons of salt from the Smash fanbase no matter what happens tonight.

-----

Vectorman chance prediction: 1.00% (if we are predicting that today)

Nominations:
Mii Costume: 2B x10

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Abstaining on predictions

Vectorman: 1.65%
Beat x5

 

[Lyncario]

My predictions for TGA 2020:

Ghosts of Tsushima willl win goty, Among Us will win best multiplayer game despite releasing in 2018, Re:FFVII wins best rpg, Animal Crossing wins best family game, and I have no idea for the other categories.

Also I don't expect a Smash reveal at all.

And I can say for sure that people will be very disapointed (as usual), and that there will be high drama over TLoU2 gaining any awards.

 

[GoodGrief741]

So I'd like to apologize for being so late with this. I was aware that it had been a while since the last update but you know, college and stuff got in the way, I figured it could wait for a while. But I hadn't realized that it had been nearly a month. Again, I'm very sorry. The good news is I'm on break now so I should be able to do calcs weekly.

Spoiler: Calcs

Impa
18.60% Chance - 69.52% Want
Last time we rated her she got 4.60% chance and 27.32% want, but the comparison is apples to oranges since this recent rating was specifically AoC Impa whereas the other one had been all-encompassing.
Winner of predictions was Mr. MR with 19.654%

Alex Mason
1.57% Chance - 17.25% Want
Winner of predictions was GoodGrief741 with 1.47%

Frisk
2.59% Chance - 45.00% Want
Last time we rated them they got 15.59% chance and 43.57% want. What happened since that time? Well, a little thing called Sans' Mii Costume. That explains the precipitous drop in chance, and also why want stayed around the same.
Winners of predictions were DrifloonEmpire and GoodGrief741 with 2.81%

Scorpion
14.62% Chance - 63.29% Want
Winner of predictions was BowserKing with a precise 15.00%

Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief
17.19% Chance - 60.60% Want
Winner of predictions was Sari with 12.50%
There was a lot of confusion on whether Bethesda's characters counted for this rating, so scores varied accordingly.

Chibi-Robo
1.21% Chance - 52.31% Want
Last time we rated him he got 4.52% chance and 63.59% want. It's worth noting that Chibi was our first rating after Joker was revealed so he got the brunt of the "characters you wouldn't expect to be in Smash" train of speculation, and yet he still performed better than now. I guess it's to be expected, with Skip's future not looking good, but it's surprising to see that also affect people's want for him. Or maybe it's the past 2 years of third parties and third party centered speculation.
Winner of predictions was DrifloonEmpire with a near-exact 1.22%. Both he and GoodGrief741 (with a 1.26%) earn 10 extra noms!

Red
12.13% Chance - 29.11% Want
Winner of predictions was GoodGrief741 with 11.74%

The Knight
10.00% Chance - 59.38% Want
First time we rated him he got 5.87% chance and 41.67% want, back in the pre-Hero days when Silksong hadn't even been announced. Second time we rated him he got 9.09% chance and 37.32% want. This was in the sweetspot between Silksong's announcement and Sans' Mii Costume, so it was looking bright for the little guy. Last time we rated him he got 4.62% chance and 50.12% want. This was after Byleth when everyone was expecting the indie Mii Costume trend to continue with him as the next in line. Since then, nothing has happened to this guy. No news on Silksong, and no Mii Costume. So why the all-time high scores? Well, simply put, so little had changed for him that most people simply abstained, leaving only the fans to rate him, thus inflating his score. The low participation matches this (for reference, Miriam's day doubled the amount of ratings).
The winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi by virtue of being the lowest prediction, with 13.32%

Miriam
3.77% Chance - 59.29% Want
The winner of predictions was DrifloonEmpire with 3.43%

Maxwell
8.18% Chance - 67.93% Want
First time we rated him he got 5.50% chance and 63.50% want. Last time we rated him he got 3.73% chance and 48.37% want. Honestly there's no explaining the difference in scores since Scribblenauts is in the same place as a franchise since 2018, so I guess his fanbase is really growing. Good for Maxwell!
The winner of predictions was Blankiturayman with a precise 8.00%

Hajime Hinata
5.27% Chance - 55.91% Want
The winner of predictions was BowserKing with a precise 5.00%
It's worth pointing out that Hajime had a single chance score of 35% - whereas the rest were mostly below 5%. Take out that outlier and he'd end up with 2.30%

Cynthia
2.08% Chance - 34.77% Want
The winner of predictions was DanganZilla5 with a precise 2.00%

Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment)
70.38% Chance - 47.93% Want
The winner of predictions was GoodGrief741 by virtue of being the highest prediction, with 73.85%
This concept is the most likely concept (and overall highest chance score) in all of RTC, supplanting Mii Costume: Hollow Knight.

And with no further ado, the extra noms list

3BitSaurus 5
Artix 15
Awakining 5
Blankiturayman 10
BowserKing 10
DanganZilla5 5
DaUsername 97
Delzethin 5
DrifloonEmpire 20
GoodGrief741 83
Icedragonadam 5
Inue Houji 20
Mr. MR 65
NintenRob 55
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 5
Sari 5
SKX31 5
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 54
WeirdChillFever 10
Wunderwaft 5

 

[fogbadge]

hmm i predict that the games i like will barely win anything cause thats what always with these things. i also think that while its possible we'll see something smash related we shouldnt really count on it cause it happened once before.

now that i think about it are the golden joysticks still a thing? i must look that up sometime this isnt the place for that

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

TGA... I'm traumatised by how awful last year's show ended up and not wanting to risk losing another 4 hours of my life to watching it live again - I'll probably be playing Doom, Mortal Kombat, Puyo Puyo... Something to keep me busy, but at the same time I want to know what happens...

Spoiler

As for my basic predictions/wants, even if I haven't played/finished some of these games:
GOTY: I really hope TLOU2 doesn't win GOTY after Naughty Dog's horrible crunch and Druckmann's ego trying to force this game as "I MADE GAMING'S CITIZEN KANE AT THE COST OF MY EMPLOYEES SAFETY! ALL HATERS GO LOSE YOUR CAPS LOCK LOLOLOL" Good god, thanks to the overhype, the clickers in the first game and the trainwreck narrative TLOU2 ended up being, I really want something else other than it to win GOTY. I'd be rooting for: Animal Crossing, Doom Eternal, FFVII Remake, Ghost of Tsushima or Hades walk away as GOTY.
Best Audio Design: Ghost of Tsushima or Hades.
Narrative: Final Fantasy VII Remake/Ghost of Tsushima
Games for Impact: Spiritfarer
Accessibility: TLOU2 (Probably the one of the few good things I've heard about it outside of story mishandling)
Best Action: Ghost of Tsushima/Doom Eternal
Best Action-Adventure: Ghost of Tsushima/Assassin's Creed: Valhalla
Art Direction: Hades
Score: Doom Eternal
Best Performance: Daisuke Tsuji (EN) and Kazuya Nakai (JP) for Jin in Ghost of Tsushima
Best Ongoing: Apex Legends
Best Indie: Fall Guys or Hades
Best Mobile: Among Us or Genshin Impact
Simulation: Microsoft Flight Simulator
Best Sports/Racing: Tony Hawks Pro Skater 1+2
Best Community Support: Apex Legends/Fall Guys
Best Role Playing: Final Fantasy VII Remake - But if Geoff got rid of his hate or ignorance of the series, Xenoblade Chronicles Definitive Edition
Best Fighting Game: Granblue Versus, but it's probably going to be Mortal Kombat because of brand recognition.
Best Family: Animal Crossing: New Horizons, Fall Guys or Crash 4
Best Multiplayer: Animal Crossing, Fall Guys or Among Us
Ideally in another timeline, I'd say the Content Creators awards should go to the Hololive talents like Fubuki, Gura or Korone or Scott the Woz, since he seems to be a pretty funny and likable guy.
Best Debut: Rajj or Carrion
Best VR/AR: Half-Life: Alyx
Have nothing to say about e-sports after this year.

As for other general predictions, I have a 50/50 prediction for a Smash Bros reveal, and as for which one it could be, the 'safe' speculator thinks someone like Ryu Hayabusa could be revealed, and it might tie-in with the rumored Ninja Gaiden Trilogy listing. Other things I suspect are likely more cringe trailers like the disastrous Dungeons and Dragons game filmed from horrible over-the-shoulder view and cringeworthy ads that are just drawing out this event for longer than it should go on for anyway.

Sigh, I just hope that karma bites Druckmann's ego and that none of these "Jonesy is in Smash loolol" rumours are true. Because while Steve and Minecraft have redeemed themselves in my eyes, NOTHING can redeem Fortnite's existence to me.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Gameplay/footage or trailer for God of War: Ragnarok.

No Smash reveal. Disappointment occurs.

Trailer for the upcoming live-action Mortal Kombat movie.

Ghost of Tsushima wins GotY. TLoU 2 fans throws a fit.

 

[Lionfranky]

I'm 50/50 on Smash reveal. It's been only two months since Steve was revealed. That may be too close to each other, but who knows? This pandemic screwed up the original schedule, so they may reduce time gap this time.
Based on what I saw, Ghost of Tsushima is winning. TGA is based on popular votes like Golden Joystick, but this time, anti TLOU2 crowds are uniting on GoT. That game is getting more votes than TLOU2. I can't wait to see expression of those who said "See Golden Joystick? TGA will be same!! Those guys are vocal minority!!"
God of War Ragnorok trailer
Few more heavy hitters

Nom: Characters that don't have their games on Nintendo platform x 10

 

[DanganZilla5]

Game Awards 2020 Predictions

• TLOU 2 wins a bunch of awards.
• TLOU 2, Ghost of Tsushima, and Animal Crossing are my top 3 picks for most likely GOTY winner. I'm leaning on Ghost of Tsushima.
• A lot of my award predictions are the same as Sari.
  • Best Indie: Hades
  • Best Mobile Game: Among Us
  • Best VR: Half Life Alyx
  • Best Role-Playing: FF7 Remake
  • Best Family: Animal Crossing
  • Best Multiplayer: COD Warzone
• I'm hoping Streets of Rage 4 wins something.
• There will be an Among Us skit that will probably be cringy.
• Some game announcements. Maybe a new Nintendo announcement like Metroid Prime Trilogy and DLC announcement for some random game. Maybe Bayonetta 3 will finally get some news but it probably won't happen.
• Now for the big one: Smash. I think it's likely we will see something and I'm putting my bets entirely on Geno. Even before the event from two days ago, I just have a gut feeling Geno will probably be next. Little hints and evidence have built up for him over time so I feel like it's only a matter of time. I get the skepticism that he is not TGA material, but Geoff Keighley seems to be pushing for a Smash reveal for TGA and maybe the timing just lines up with Geno.

Are we doing predictions? If so: Vectorman - 0.80%

Noms: Among Us character x10

 

[SneakyLink]

Nintendo just announced there will be a fighter at the Game Awards.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

A new Super #SmashBrosUltimate fighter will be revealed tonight at #TheGameAwards! Tune in to the show, beginning at 4pm PT, to be ready for the reveal! pic.twitter.com/Lkw9fRrizl

— Nintendo of America (@NintendoAmerica) December 10, 2020

Crash for Smash dammit!!!

 

[Lyncario]

And so, I already get one thing wrong for sure. Oh well, I'll gladly take that L, because at least it will be a good surprise for when I wake up tomorow.

 

[BowserKing]

Prediction for the game awards

New Smash Bros fighter reveal, it’s basically confirmed recently. But who would the fighter be. My most likely bet is Shantae, due to her being an indie rep and a fun choice. But I have a few other ideas, like Sylux, Adeleine, Lugia, a new Legend of Zelda fighter, a Pokémon from Sword and Shield, Crash, Geno (but I prefer it if Geno is the final fighter of the second fighter’s pass), Fawful and multiple others.

Any news for the upcoming games would also be appreciated.

Also Smash Bros having a chance to win best the fighting game award, which is not impossible, but if it does not, I won’t be upset.

Noms: 5 for Stage: Bowser’s Castle, 5 for Boss: Rayquaza and 5 for Echo: Bowser

 

[Aerospherology]

Expecting: Ryu Hayabusa
Hoping: Crash
I wish it would be possible there: Geno
Dreading: Jonesy

 

[Lyncario]

Also Smash Bros having a chance to win best the fighting game award, which is not impossible.

It's not even one of the nominees, since you know, it came out late 2018 and got an award in the 2019 TGA.

 

[Perkilator]

It's not even one of the nominees, since you know, it came out late 2018 and got an award in the 2019 TGA.

Know what’s weird? It’s not even in the “Best Ongoing Game” category.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Alright, I had a minute to think about the Smash reveal, and here's what I think: whoever it is, Nintendo seems to be confident enough to show them at an event with hundreds of people watching. Notice how Byleth, Min Min, and Steve were all shadowdropped prior to this. Here, Nintendo WANTS people to be talking about the new character. That doesn't necessarily mean it'll be a big name, mind you, but that seems to be Nintendo's plan. As for the rest of the event, all I can say is that TLOU2 will most likely win a bunch of awards, many of which it didn't deserve.

If we're doing nominations, then [Rerate] Monokuma x10 (I believe I did the right amount of sentances).

 

[Jomosensual]

Game Awards Predictions(only predicting the bigger awards):
Game of the Year - Final Fantasy 7
Best Narrative - Ghost of Tsushima
Best Art - Last of Us 2
Best Performance - Ashley Johnson as Ellie
Best Indie - Fall Guys
Innovation - Watch Dogs Legion
Best Action Game - Doom Eternal
Best Action/Adventure - Last of Us 2
Best RPG - FF7
Best Fighting Game - Mortal Kombat 11
Best Family Game - Animal Crossing
Best Sim/Strat - Gears Tactics
Best Sports game - Tony Hawk Pro Skater
Best Multiplayer - Among Us

As for new stuff, I'm gonna go bold and predict a new NCAA football game! I'll preorder it and be super excited and then it'll just be reskinned Madden with a horrible dynasty mode and I'll just go back to playing 14 soon enough. ****ing EA Sports. We'll also get some more info on the upcoming League of Legends console games and an official Bioshock 4 reveal. Along with that the Kratos and Master Chief skins for Fortnite get official reveals as well.

When I typed this out last night I said no Smash reveal. Obviously that's wrong now. I'm sitting on 2 choices right now. 1 is Crash, who is a western icon and a perfect choice to reveal at what was supposed to be a western event. Crash also has solid ties to the awards. The other is Ahri, who has ties to the awards after how many LOL reveals there were last year. There's also a lot of Esports awards being given out on the show so it would make sense to have her reveal be here with likely a lot of that crowd watching. Really feeling solid on these 2, although I wouldn't be shocked if it's someone big and completely out of left field.

Predictions:
Lots of salty people tomorrow when it's once again not Geno

Noms:
John Marston x 10

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Well now that we got a Smash reveal being announced tonight.

Hoping: Crash or Doom Slayer
Expecting: Jonesy

 

[fogbadge]

hmm i predict that the games i like will barely win anything cause thats what always with these things. i also think that while its possible we'll see something smash related we shouldnt really count on it cause it happened once before.

now that i think about it are the golden joysticks still a thing? i must look that up sometime this isnt the place for that

wow that aged badly pretty quickly

should i go again?