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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
My predictions:

Well obviously we're getting Smash. Right now I'm feeling that Crash, Geno, Hayabusa and Jonesy could be revealed. Which means that I'm going to predict that none of them is FP8 because come on, I'm obviously not gonna get it right.

As for other reveals/trailers, I think Nintendo will definitely have something aside from Smash. Either BotW2 (probably not), Metroid Prime Trilogy or 4, or Bayo 3 come to mind. Or maybe an unannounced game but that seems unlikely because Nintendo usually prefers to announce stuff on their own terms. From Sony I think we could get either GoW Ragnarok or Horizon Forbidden West, plus Ratchet & Clank. That rumored new Silent Hill is supposed to be revealed tonight as well. From Microsoft I really expect very little, maybe Psychonauts 2 or Hellblade 2. Fable if I'm being optimistic. I think we could get something from Sonic's delayed anniversary announcements. Bravely Default and No More Heroes could have a repeat showing. Activision will have either the next Crash game or Overwatch 2. Capcom should be getting started with announcing the two leaked February titles, though those could very well come in a Direct instead. Battlefield 6 I imagine could get a reveal here since E3 got canned. From Bethesda I think we'll see the next game from one of their smaller studios (so Deathloop, GhostWire, or whatever Machineworks is doing). And we'll probably get a ton of crap from Riot.

Edit: oh yeah we're probably going to get a lot of ****ty movie trailers since Tom Holland, Gal Gadot and Brie Larson are all presenters. Uncharted is a guarantee, Wonder Woman 1984 will also probably be there (**** you Former Bros.) and as for Brie Larson... I dunno. She might just announce Best Family Game since she's a big fan of Animal Crossing, and if Samus is actually in Fortnite then she might announce that too (she's a Metroid fan and has lobbied for the role of Samus in a live action adaptation)

Now, for the awards. I think GotY is between Ghost of Tsushima and Animal Crossing, with The Last of Us Part II having a shot at an upset. Direction is probably Last of Us, Art Direction I feel could be anyone, Music is between legends Gordon, Uematsu and Santaolalla, Ongoing is Fortnite, Indie is Hades, Mobile is Among Us, VR is Half-Life Alyx, Accessibility is Last of Us, Fighter is Mortal Kombat 11, RPG is Final Fantasy VII Remake, Family is Animal Crossing, Sim is Flight Simulator, Sports is THPS1+2, Multiplayer I think could go to either Animal Crossing or Among Us, Debut Game is a big question mark but it should go to Carrion, Anticipated Game is Breath of the Wild 2.

Action is a crapshoot because Doom is infamous for being nominated for Game of the Year in 2016 and losing Best Action to a game that wasn't even nominated for GotY (Titanfall 2). So I think it could be anyone, but I'm rooting for Streets of Rage 4.

Action-Adventure I think is the canary in the coalmine on whether the critics stuck to their guns or ended up siding with the backlash. If they give it to Ghost of Tsushima, expect it to win Game of the Year. If they give it to Miles Morales or, god-forbid, Assassin's Creed, then it's anyone's game. If The Last of Us does win, then we could very well be looking at a GotY for it.

So uh yeah, those are my in-depth predictions for tonight. Look for them to be all wrong and we end up with Reimu in Smash, Metal Gear Solid 6 being announced and Hades winning GotY.

Noms: Marina x10
If we're predicting Vectorman, 3.2%
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
[Rerate] Monokuma x160
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x155
Qbby x150
John Marston x140
Crazy Dave x140
Worms x140
Mii Costume: Monika x135

150 - 101

[Rerate] Neku x129
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x127
D.Va x115
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x105
Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x105
Boss: Ender Dragon x103

100 - 51

Zero (Mega Man) x95
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Stage: Bowser's Castle x91
Riptor x90
Boss: Rayquaza x85
Velvet Crowe x85
Fulgore x84
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Mii Costume: 2B x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Giygas x71
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55
Junpei (Zero Escape) x54

50 - 25

Concept: Among Us character x50
Tetra x45
Echo (Bowser) x40
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30
Ryza (Atelier) x25
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x25

Under 25

Yarn Yoshi x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x15
[Rerate] Master Chief x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Filia (Skullgirls) x13
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x12
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Estelle Bright x10
Mii Costume: Zagreus x10
Mii Costume: Madeline x10
Regigigas x10
Marina Liteyears x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x5
Firebrand x1

John Marston, Crazy Dave, and Worms all pass Mii Costume: Monika. The trio is tied at fourth whereas Monika falls to last place.

Beat and Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms skate past 100 noms.

Junpei has found a way past 50 noms.

Joining the noms list today are Marina Liteyears, with 10 noms, Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo, with 5 noms, and Firebrand, with a single nomination to its name.
 

warpenguin55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
490
Predictions:
Smash: The character will be a LoL rep. It will probably be one of the 6 playable Ruined King characters (Ahri, Braum, Yasuo, Illaoi, Miss Fortune, Pyke). So probably Ahri or Yasuo
The Ruined King twitter account teased that we'll be getting new info, so anyone who cares about that, there ya go.

Other stuff: IDK

Why have I been seeing so many people saying it's Jonesy? Did I miss something?
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Why have I been seeing so many people saying it's Jonesy? Did I miss something?
A conversation leaked recently between Geoff Keighley (the guy who runs TGA) and Donald Mustard (Fortnite person) and allegedly it was said that Fortnite is coming to Smash. In what capacity it wasn't specified but people suspect it could be a fighter.
 

fogbadge

Smash Obsessed
Joined
Jun 29, 2012
Messages
22,813
Location
Scotland
[Rerate] Monokuma x160
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x155
Qbby x150
John Marston x140
Crazy Dave x140
Worms x140
Mii Costume: Monika x135

150 - 101

[Rerate] Neku x129
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x127
D.Va x115
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x105
Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x105
Boss: Ender Dragon x103

100 - 51

Zero (Mega Man) x95
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Stage: Bowser's Castle x91
Riptor x90
Boss: Rayquaza x85
Velvet Crowe x85
Fulgore x84
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Mii Costume: 2B x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Giygas x71
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55
Junpei (Zero Escape) x54

50 - 25

Concept: Among Us character x50
Tetra x45
Echo (Bowser) x40
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30
Ryza (Atelier) x25
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x25

Under 25

Yarn Yoshi x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x15
[Rerate] Master Chief x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Filia (Skullgirls) x13
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x12
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Estelle Bright x10
Mii Costume: Zagreus x10
Mii Costume: Madeline x10
Regigigas x10
Marina Liteyears x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x5
Firebrand x1

John Marston, Crazy Dave, and Worms all pass Mii Costume: Monika. The trio is tied at fourth whereas Monika falls to last place.

Beat and Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms skate past 100 noms.

Junpei has found a way past 50 noms.

Joining the noms list today are Marina Liteyears, with 10 noms, Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo, with 5 noms, and Firebrand, with a single nomination to its name.
oh hang on. do we still get noms today?
 

Mr. MR

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Sep 5, 2011
Messages
115
Predictions:

Sorry I have been gone for weeks but I’ll be back eventually... and today...

Game of the Year: Ghost of Tsushima
Best Game Direction: Ghost of Tsushima
Best Narrative: Not the Last of Us 2, so it's Ghost of Tsushima
Best Art Direction: I'm going to give it to Ghost of Tsushima
- I haven't played any new games this year besides Nintendo so I'm going to say Sushi Ghost all the way down because its probably the one I would want to play first.
Best Music: idk Ori and the Will of the Wisps
Best Audio Design: Ghost of Tsushima
Best Performance: idk as long as its not TLoU2, so give it to Ghost again
Games for Impact: None of them because none of them made an impact enough for me to know about them
Best Ongoing: No Man's Sky
Best Indie: Hades because it's a nom for GotY
Best Mobile: Among Us doesn't belong here but it's here and it will probably win
Best Community Support: Fortnite idk
Best VR/AR: probably Alyx
Innovation in Accessibility: idk ACV
Best Action: Doom
Best Action Adventure: Ghost
Best Role Playing: Final Fantasy
Best Fighter: Uh Street Fighter
Best Family: Animal Crossing
Best Sim/Strategy: Crusader Kings
Best Sports: Tony Hawk idk
Best Multiplayer: Among Us
I lost the will to keep going...

Ok, now on to the real winner...
Smash Prediction:
As much as I hate it, Fortnite has a good chance.
Crash is another good pick that would probably fulfill the hype.
Out of the games that are in the GotY category I think Doomguy (despite the deconfirm) and maybe Sephiroth have the best chance. Though I don't think they will win it.

Scenario 1:
We get Jonesy and we watch him floss over our crushed hopes and dreams. It won't be just Fortnite in Smash but also the Greater Nintendoverse in a Fortnite event.

Scenario 2:
I don't think we will get a Mii Costume reveal but if we do it's going to be lots of Fortnite and probably a Doomguy Mii Costume and MAYBE Final Fantasy Music.
Crash becomes our new overlord as he spins to win.
Fortnite gets a whole Nintendo crossover event.

Scenario 3:
Doomguy and Isabella are reunited. We get Fornite Mii Costumes and possibly FF Mii Costumes and music and the Fornite Nintendo crossover is mostly in Fortnite. This is the one I probably want the most, but it probably wont happen.

Noms: Mii Costume: 2B x10
Predict?: idk 2%
 
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PeridotGX

Smash Hero
Joined
Jun 8, 2017
Messages
9,031
Location
That Distant Shore
NNID
Denoma5280
Predictions:

  • Samus in Fortnite
  • A new Pokemon in Pokemon Go, like Meltan
...that's it for non-Smash predictions. I really need to work on that. Anyways, there are a few characters I think might happen. I don't know why, but my gut is saying 2B. It kinda makes sense, I guess, she's similar to Joker in how she's a non-Nintendo recent hit. Jonesy... could happen, but I think it's mostly fearmongering after Steve, who's kind of similar. I also don't think we're getting Crash, Geoff's hint was way too on the nose to be real. Other than 2B, I think we could see Dante, Frisk, Waluigi, and Lyoid Irving.

Noms: Regigigas x10
 
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D

Deleted member

Guest
The Game Awards 2020

Here's my predictions on the nominees starting from the bottom of the list to GOTY:

Best Esports Team: Dallas Empire
Best Esports Host: Goldenboy
Best Esports Game: Valorant
Best Esports Event: LoL World Championships
Best Esports Coach: Zonic
Best Esports Athlete: Showmaker
Best Debut Game: Carrion
Content Creator of the Year: Alanah Pearce (I see her on my twitter feed often even though I don't follow her)
Best Multiplayer: Among Us
Best Sports/Racing: F1 2020
Best Sim/Strategy: Microsoft Flight Simulator (not sure why simulators and strategy games are bundled together but ok)
Best Family: Animal Crossing
Best Fighting: MK11 Ultimate
Best Role Playing: FF7 Remake
Best Action/Adventure Game: Ghost of Tsushima
Best Action: DOOM Eternal
Innovation in Accessibility: TLOU 2
Best VR: Half-Life Alyx
Best Community Support: Fall Guys
Best Mobile Game: Genshin Impact
Best Indie: Hades
Best Ongoing: Fortnite
Games for Impact: If Found (never heard of this game but I imagine it's some hard hitting stuff)
Best Performance: Ashley Johnson as Ellie
Best Audio Design: TLOU 2
Best Score and Music: DOOM Eternal
Best Art Direction: Ori & the Will of the Wisps
Best Narrative: Hades
Best Game Direction: Half-Life Alyx
Game of the Year: Hades (of all the years for an indie game actually having a chance to win GOTY, 2020 is it)

Now since we're guaranteed to see a new Smash fighter, it's come down to 3 picks for me: Jonesy, a Gen 8 Pokemon, and Zagreus. Inman Khan was not subtle when he mentioned Sonic shooting Mario while tweeting about Fortnite, and given that no comment thing about Smash awhile back, I guess it makes all the more sense that it lines up to Jonesy. Granted, Inman Khan ****posted earlier today about Samus grabbing Jonesy through a portal, but for all we know, he's playing 4D chess with us and Jonesy is actually in Smash but not in the way he mentioned it'd be. Other than Fortnite, a Gen 8 Pokemon sounds plausible as well. I don't know about y'all, but the timing kinda feels right for a SwSh Pokemon to be revealed since we just came off 1 of the biggest reveals in Smash history. Lastly, Hades is a great game, so I say Zagreus is a wildcard for a reveal tonight. When the game was unveiled for the first time, it was during TGAs on the same year Joker was revealed, so it'd be quite something to see it come full circle for Zagreus to be revealed for Smash 2 years after.

And that's basically it. I'm not gonna delve unto what games will be revealed cause there probably won't be anything that'd get me to think hey that looks promising so why bother.

Noms:
A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x10
 

NeonBurrito

Smash Ace
Joined
Aug 10, 2013
Messages
727
Location
(´・ω・`)
Just going off of a gut feeling here, I think Crash is going to be tonight's newcomer.
Game of the Year will go to TLoU2, even if I personally would've rather had Ghosts of Tsushima or Hades take it.
 

DaUsername

Smash Ace
Joined
Aug 6, 2013
Messages
910
Location
In that corner over there
NNID
DaUsername
Switch FC
SW-1418-0536-1998
I was originally gonna predict there would be no first party Nintendo announcements (I was right last year!) but it looks like Nintendo themselves have already proven me wrong on that.

Anyway, I see two major possibilities for the next Smasher.
1. Jonesy the funny Fortnite man (Because I can't have nice things.)
2. A mobile gacha "character" like Katalina or something (Same reason as above.)
I'd love to be wrong here, but I probably won't be.

As for other Nintendo announcements, we'll probably get another reminder that Bayo 3 exists, and probably not much else.

Non-Nintendo announcements will include various Fortnite updates, movies, and other stuff I don't care about.

As for the Awards themselves, TLOU2 will win more awards than it should, DOOM Eternal will win less awards than it should, Nintendo will win Best Family Game and nothing else, and Among Us will win Best Multiplayer despite being released in 2018. (But then again, it's not very often where a game doesn't become popular until two years after release.)

Noms: New Zelda Character x5 (or x10 if I qualified IDK how this works.)
 
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3DSNinja

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 30, 2018
Messages
1,390
Predictions:
Ghosts wins GoTY like it rightfully deserves
Persona 5 Royal doesn't get best RPG like it deserves.
FF7R wins Best Narrative even though Ghosts deserves it.
The character is Ryu Hayubusa, Phoenix Wright, or Crash Bandicoot.
The Ninja Gaiden Trilogy is revealed.
Prime 4 trailer.
Prime Trilogy for Switch reveal.
If I am lucky, Danganronpa 4 gets revealed to the shock of everyone.
Persona 6 teaser trailer.
. .yea that's all I have right now.
Nominations: Neku x5, Peppino x5
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
NEVERMIND I WAS WRONG
SEPHIROTH FOR SMASH
Holy **** I never saw it coming, but ya know what? More Final Fantasy is better!
I remember calling this way earlier in the year abd promptly forgetting about it for a while. Damn
 

Neosonic97

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
304
I don't know what I was expecting, but it surely wasn't this.

Can't say I'm not happy for Final Fantasy fans though. And you can't say he's not recognizable! As soon as One-Winged Angel started playing, I instantly knew who it was.
 

Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
4,439
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Congrats to Sephiroth.

Also RIP pretty much every Square Enix character. Granted they could still technically happen but a lot of them (Geno, Neku, etc.) are looking a lot less likely now.
 

Mr. MR

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Sep 5, 2011
Messages
115
Out of the games that are in the GotY category I think Doomguy (despite the deconfirm) and maybe Sephiroth have the best chance. Though I don't think they will win it.
Even though I thought about the possibility I still can't believe it
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Posted this on discord but here's my breakdown of what this means now

Winners - Chun Li, Alucard, and Sonic reps.

Losers - 2B, Geno, Chrono, Lara Croft, and all the other SE reps

Unsure - Sora. Disney might be saving him
 

Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,398
Location
New Jersey
The real GOTY of 2020 is Puyo Puyo Tetris 2, which is sadly disqualified due to coming out too late. So I don't care what game takes the number one spot. I am interested in seeing the Among Us reps, though.

Also, welcome to the great fray, Sephiroth!

True confirmations: The man himself. Because Cloud got in already, secondary third parties are now eligible in Smash! Cloud also appears to have an updated Final Smash? It might have just been a special thing for the trailer.

Likely disqualifications: Other characters from Square-Enix better start worrying. Not getting two MS reps in one pass could be a coincidence, but the fact that they've continued to be spread out withIn particular I will single out Geno as a dead man walking. If his Mii Costume ISN'T coming back, it just means it was cut. Same goes with Chocobo to a greater degree.

Keep an eye on... (Likelier)
  1. Dr. Eggman, Chun-Li, Alucard - These guys by far benefit the most from this reveal. All of them are iconic, popular characters whose biggest weakness was the "one unique third party per franchise" thing. Arguably in Eggman and Chun-Li's case, it was their last weakness left, as Min Min opened the door to Spirits. I wouldn't expect them very soon, but down the line (maybe a game or two), any roster prediction without at least one of these guys is going to be laughable. Since I don't imagine the Assist Trophy was his biggest obstacle, well, Alucard got a bonus.
    1. Honorable mentions are DLC Mii Costumes Tails, Knuckles, Zero and Slime. I won't hold Alucard's Assist Trophy against him.
  2. SEGA & Capcom: The big two remaining third parties without content in the Volume 2 era to a significant degree. Everybody else either came with so much there's little left to add (SNK), already got another rep (Microsoft, Square) or has a Mii Costume (Bandai Namco). There's three spots left, so you might want to check them out. That being said, either of them getting Mii'd would be unsurprising, especially Monster Hunter.
  3. Already represented franchises in general: Not exclusive to third parties, but any of these guys would make for an earthshaking enough reveal for TGA/E3. It's a good day to want these guys.
  4. Unbalanced characters are back, baby. DLC Privilege returns with a vengeance.
You can ease off on... (Less Likely)
  1. A first party dominated pass: Two third parties back to back, something I would not expect. Again, it's still possible,
  2. Characters from unrepresented franchises from a company already on the roster: This one varies, for some it's minor and for others it's "you're going up against Dr. Eggman", but generally there's a reason those franchises got in first. In particular, the most notable characters in descending order of severity affected: Most SEGA reps (Arle, Sakura, Axel, Kiryu), lesser Capcom reps (Viewtiful Joe, Frank West), major Capcom reps (Dante, Phoenix Wright, Monster Hunter*). Other veteran third parties I'm not counting on to begin with, but if you are, they go here too.
  3. Big third parties, again: To a lesser extent. They still have one more chance, at E3 2021, but Steve + Sephiroth are likely budget eaters. If that passes and any big characters like Crash, Heavy, Doom Slayer or others like that.
  4. Depends on Sephiroth's Mii Costumes: The remaining Mii Costumes, in particular Lloyd and Monster Hunter, from Smash 4.
Sephiroth has opened the door for many faces, so it'll be interesting to see how speculation develops.
 
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Hydreigonfan01

Smash Master
Joined
Aug 24, 2018
Messages
4,653
The real GOTY of 2020 is Puyo Puyo Tetris 2, which is sadly disqualified due to coming out too late. So I don't care what game takes the number one spot. I am interested in seeing the Among Us reps, though.

Also, welcome to the great fray, Sephiroth!

True confirmations: The man himself. Because Cloud got in already, secondary third parties are now eligible in Smash! Cloud also appears to have an updated Final Smash? It might have just been a special thing for the trailer.

Likely disqualifications: Other characters from Square-Enix better start worrying. Not getting two MS reps in one pass could be a coincidence, but the fact that they've continued to be spread out withIn particular I will single out Geno as a dead man walking. If his Mii Costume ISN'T coming back, it just means it was cut. Same goes with Chocobo to a greater degree.

Keep an eye on... (Likelier)
  1. Dr. Eggman, Chun-Li, Alucard - These guys by far benefit the most from this reveal. All of them are iconic, popular characters whose biggest weakness was the "one unique third party per franchise" thing. Arguably in Eggman and Chun-Li's case, it was their last weakness left, as Min Min opened the door to Spirits. I wouldn't expect them very soon, but down the line (maybe a game or two), any roster prediction without at least one of these guys is going to be laughable. Since I don't imagine the Assist Trophy was his biggest obstacle, well, Alucard got a bonus.
You forgot Raiden from Metal Gear, who also has a spirit.
 
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Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,398
Location
New Jersey
Oh, sorry, how did I miss him?... well, I do think less likely of Konami because of the Bomberman Mii Costume coming out of season.
 
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