Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[cashregister9]

GENO:
Chance: 30% Demand certainly exists for this character and it would weird if Sakurai hasn't noticed. But no one except for Smash bros people even care/know about Geno in the first place.
Want: 10% I never really got the hype for this character

SORA:
Chance 50% Sora's chances are in this weird limbo that I have no idea how to interpret. It is owned by Disney but Nomura needs to sign off and it is just wacky. But not wacky enough to declare Sora ineligible
Want: 100% Kingdom Hearts 2 is my 3rd favorite game of all time. If i could play as the protagonist from it I would be a happy lad

 

[MisterMike]

Ultimately, all that Geno has going for him is his design. If you don't like the design, you're not going to want Geno.

There's also the game that he's attached to that a lot of people love, as well as the amazing soundtrack. Also, joining the Geno Thread gets you to a free Geno Hat for use on your avatar and any meme images.

With other popular characters, even if they aren't into the character itself, people can still latch onto other qualities such as their historical significance, their role in their franchise, and the games they represent. Which makes characters more palatable for the undecided. If you don't like Ridley, you don't have to support him, but since he's still an iconic character and the main villain of a huge franchise, you can still respect his merits and therefore his inclusion in Smash.

I get that, but I can't help but find it a bit... disingenuous. Not even sure if that's the right word for it, but I think it's kind of a **** way to look at things. It reads to me as: You're pretending to be fine with a character you don't want or care for getting in because you can use their history and importance to their home series, or gaming as a whole, as a post-hoc rationalization to make yourself feel a bit better about their inclusion.

With Geno, if people don't like his design, they'll consider him a waste of a slot, so that's why Geno's such a love-him-or-hate-him type character.

Honestly, I think people will consider any character who isn't the one of the ones they want a waste of a slot. In hindsight, Incineroar was a great choice for Smash: It's a well liked character from a super popular series, and it brings a unique fighting style to the table, which was why it was chosen to begin with.

If the point you're trying to make is that the Geno fanbase is large enough to get noticed, I'll absolutely concede. But it was hard to get that from your original statement.

That too, but also that I believe the "Smash Bubble" card is simply used to downplay characters rather than functioning as a valid argument against the character it's used against. Also yeah, I really need to do a better job at structuring my thoughts. Even after spending so long on them, they still end up a bit half-baked at times...

If you acknowledge that you're uninformed, people expect you to concede when other, better informed people tell you that your conceptions are wrong. If you don't know anything about aviation and start arguing with a pilot on how to fly a plane, you've kind of lost already.

The only thing I've been professing here is that I don't believe he has enough material for a fair and balanced moveset, because I personally don't know enough about Kingdom Hearts to come up with a sufficient moveset for him. I'm perfectly fine in condeding this point when others come to challenge it, and someone even linked a Sora moveset video to be that I intend to watch, which was nice.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Noms: Bandanna Waddle Dee x5

Sorry, but we've rated Dee pretty recently, and so he can't be nominated until we're through this schedule we're on.

I get that, but I can't help but find it a bit... disingenuous. Not even sure if that's the right word for it, but I think it's kind of a **** way to look at things. It reads to me as: You're pretending to be fine with a character you don't want or care for getting in because you can use their history and importance to their home series, or gaming as a whole, as a post-hoc rationalization to make yourself feel a bit better about their inclusion.

Think of it what you will, but that there is the explanation for why Geno's so controversial. At least it's something more reasonable than "because he's popular".

 

[fogbadge]

Trying to shame people for liking a character over a theoretical bandwagon is dumb imo. Both Geno and Sora have been stupid popular picks for almost a full decade (Geno almost two decades) so of course they are only going to continue to grow. You would think people who just want others to be happy deserve a little more respect than just being considered to just be mindlessly jumping onto a bandwagon.

Like I get any reason someone would not want either of these characters in, but the idea that fans are annoying or bandwagons are stupid only makes one look like a cynical fool.

i didnt say anything about the people who wanted him so concluding that i must be trying to shame them when i didnt even mentioned them is quite a stretch i must say

It is owned by Disney but Nomura needs to sign off and it is just wacky.

no he doesnt

 

[Cadillac]

Whoever gets in, we're getting the sweet Yoko Shimomura music. I'm looking forward to that.

 

[WaddleMatt]

I knew people were confident in Geno but over 60% jfc

 

[SharkLord]

I knew people were confident in Geno but over 60% jfc

Speaking from experience, bias tends to make a character seem more likely that they actually are. Just look at my Reimu rating. I still stand by her pros I mentioned, but she's probably a bit closer to the 50-60% range, even with me usually being pretty generous with my ratings.

 

[Blankiturayman]

So, I've been lurking this thread for a few weeks, maybe months, I don't remember, but it always seemed pretty fun. I wanted to join in at some point but I wasn't sure when, but I figure that joining now would be fine as I'm pretty attached to these characters (and some coming up from what I read in the list). Sorry if I make any mistakes, but anyways, without further ado:

Geno, the puppet that happens to hold a star inside.
Chance: 50%
I know, this rating is quite high. Nonetheless, I think it's fine, and I'll explain why, even without going into "leaks" (as I believe those to be flimsy). As I'm sure most of us who've been into this stuff for a while, Geno has been a fan request for a long, long, time, and has remained. Of course, he's not the only "big" remaining fan request but nonetheless I think it's important, especially in a game like Ultimate where it seems they're trying to play ball with fan requests. Maybe not so much with DLC, given how FP1 went, but still. I know it'd be silly to compare Banjo and Kazooie directly to Geno, one's the face of a series, one's a character in a RPG that has only made one major appareance-- but nonetheless, the fact that Nintendo was willing to go for Banjo and Kazooie (as they made the selection for DLC) gives me a little hope that they might go for other fan requests, Geno included. Their circumstances are mostly different, but the one thing in common they have is the acknowledged fan support. Sakurai made note of it back in Smash 4, but even then, that was Sakurai, so it's up in the air what Nintendo will go with. (or went with, selection's made already)

Now, the reason this is 50% and not higher is because of well, the Mii Costume. As we've seen with the previous Challenger Pack, a missing Mii Costume from Smash 4 could still come at any time. There's still the chance that Nintendo thought it'd be better to just add the Mii Costume again, and think fans would be satisfied that way. But I would say that the fact it's remained missing up until now did make me raise an eyebrow. I would say that if another SE/Mario character got in before Geno, it'd probably be just that for him. And he does have many competitors in Square Enix alone, so we'll have to wait and see. Nonetheless, I hope this time he can get it, it might be the closest he's ever been. Though I'll say, there's also the chance neither happen, and we're just stuck with the spirit. It'd probably feel anticlimactic but that just happens sometimes.

Want: 100%
Without beating around the bush, I definitely have bias towards Geno. SMRPG was the first RPG I played, I remember a time where people would call it "babby's first RPG" or something like that, haha. It's a very nice game, and it cemented the start of what would be a long-running number of spinoffs (Mario & Luigi, and Paper Mario) that have remained beloved throughout the years. If Geno were to make it, he would be able to capture the feeling of the Mario RPGs from the start, as he's:
-Part of the very first Mario RPG
-A character that would otherwise would not appear much in the mainline series, taking the spirit of Mario RPGs (other characters like this that come to mind are Mallow, of course, and the partners in Paper Mario, Vivian in particular as she's unique)
And last but not least:
-A long running Smash request. So many people know of Geno only because of people wanting him in Smash, it's crazy! I've seen it mentioned in here, but it'd definitely feel like wrapping up a book.
I really hope he can make it this time, but if he doesn't, I'll understand. He's in a very weird position, and SE/Nintendo going for more recent/bigger franchises of their own would only make sense.

Sora, the 33% puppet?
Chance: 45%
Kingdom Hearts is a very, very big franchise. It's stayed along for years, being known all over for its very unique prospect of mixing Square Enix and Disney (seriously, who would've thought THAT would happen before the series started) this alone would make Nintendo very likely to go for it. But to add to it, the series has a strong Nintendo connection. From as early as the GBA, Kingdom Hearts was part of their portable consoles. It's pretty clear that both the series being known and the connection to Nintendo are there, making them very likely to choose it to add to the Fighter's Pass. The only problem I would say that it has, is its "unique" rights. It's well, Disney. Seeing how they are it could be very hard for Nintendo to try to get Sora. But if they are determined to get him I could see them getting over that barrier; it really depends on what they wanna go for. Sora also has a connection to SE (I know he's owned by Disney) which helps adding to it, but much like with the one mentioned above, Nintendo could go for another SE character, one I've thought about is probably a Bravely Default one, to give an example. That series has also been promoted by Nintendo a lot recently. Though I'd say, Kingdom Hearts recently got a rhythm game announced to come to multiplatform, included Switch. That might add up to it a little, but well, who knows? Personally I'm not sure, I thought their chances of trying to go for it were around the same.

This is all without going into how Sora's also a big request. Many times I see him top fan polls, or at the very least get very high on them. Nintendo could've caught up on that but I'd say that the series' own prospect might've made more of an interest for them. The "wild card" here is Disney. I guess we'll have to wait and see too.

Want: 85%
I really like Kingdom Hearts! 2 is an amazing game, and the praise it gets is not undeserved. I've played most of the games, though admittedly not 2.8 and 3, as I don't have the consoles where those are. It's a very fun series, and the moveset potential Sora has for Smash is very high, he's got tons of magic, forms, techniques, you wouldn't be able to put it all into a moveset. I'd also love hearing the music in Smash, you really can't go wrong with Yoko Shimomura. It's just great. Now, this want rating might not be too high, but that's mostly because the last time I played a KH game was long ago. My love for the series isn't as high as it used to be. Maybe if I play a new game it'd reignite, but as it is, it's just like that. Nonetheless, Sora would be a very fun addition and I'd be happy to see him in.

Nominations:
Proto Man x5

Predictions:
Rayman: 35%
Travis: 45%

I think that's that-- again, sorry if I made any mistakes. Man, it went for far longer than I thought lol.

 

[SSGuy]

I knew people were confident in Geno but over 60% jfc

For me personally Geno just seems to be in this really odd position that Erdrick/Hero was in last year. While I initially did not give Hero benefit of the doubt, I cannot deny that his entire speculation period hit on almost the same beats that Geno is going thru the past couple of months. I still give him 65% and I even admitted most of that was just a little bit of bias alone. Part of me still feels like he is just as likely to only get a costume out of this whole thing.

 

[NessAtc.]

FF7 Remake hadn't even begun formal development when negotiations for Cloud would've began in mid 2015. Likewise, Nomura's reaction to Sakurai's request was initially "he's not a character from a new game", so its clear he didn't consider a Cloud a strong advertisement for what Square was cooking up at the time.

In regards to the Chocobo hat, I think it actually detracts from the concept that Square sees Smash as a big advertisement. If you have an opportunity to show off another modern franchise or game through a Mii costume, why would you dip back into Final Fantasy 7? Wouldn't it be smarter to, say, fight for a Slime hat to advertise Dragon Quest or a Lara Croft costume to advertise Tomb Raider?

Who really cares if it hadn't been "formally started development" yet? Like, the news was out there, Square was hyping it up, they had that big ass trailer for their conference, etc. And aside from that, Cloud is still the poster child of the Final Fantasy franchise. We don't have any reason to suspect the higher ups at Square Enix were pushing for a more "relevant" FF character, just that Nomura was perplexed why Sakurai wouldn't want a more recent character.

As for "dipping back into FF", again, it's very clear that Sakurai has substantially more freedom in regards to mii costumes. Because they're already doing a character that works for them, they're more inclined to listen to the prospects of doing just a bit more with the FF representation in Smash.

Of course, not much more, seeing as we do not have any FF spirits aside from Cloud's fighter spirits, nor any extra trophies back in smash 4.

The main reason I believe Nomura was hesitant about Cloud is probably because of Uematsu's role in the whole thing. But Sakurai made it clear that he only wanted Cloud and wouldn't just take any other FF character.

As for "Square doesn't see it is an ad", you really don't need to look any further than the Square spirit events we've gotten over the last few months to know that that's complete and utter bunk. They also made it a point to feature 11 as the more advertised character over someone like Loto. There is a substantial marketing element to Smash, and Square completely and utterly sees it.

 

[GoodGrief741]

For me personally Geno just seems to be in this really odd position that Erdrick/Hero was in last year. While I initially did not give Hero benefit of the doubt, I cannot deny that his entire speculation period hit on almost the same beats that Geno is going thru the past couple of months. I still give him 65% and I even admitted most of that was just a little bit of bias alone. Part of me still feels like he is just as likely to only get a costume out of this whole thing.

Erdrick got leaked tho

 

[Calamitas]

Geno Smash Chronicles

Chance: 15%
I don't really see it. The only thing this character has going for him are his popularity within a very specific subset of Smash fans, and. . . literally nothing beyond that. Sure, his Mii costume may not be back yet, but as other people have already pointed out: Heihachi. And while pleasing fans may be a motivation, I really doubt that Nintendo really considers the legal hassle surrounding the character to be worth it. That said, I don't think that Geno has no chance of making it in, hence the 15%.
Now can we please stop rating this character already? This has to be the third or fourth time already since release that we've rated him.

Want: 0%
I'm European. Okay jokes aside: This is more of an indifferent 0% than a "I'd absolutely hate his inclusion" 0%. If Geno by any chance actually makes in as DLC, my immediate reaction will be an immediate wondering of who's next (unless of course he's the final DLC character). I just don't care.

Project Sora? Oh, you mean Kid Icarus Uprising?

Chance: 35%
Or rather, our king of questionable rights and probability. On the one hand, Sora has massive fan demand that actually isn't confined to a certain sub-section of the Smash fanbase, a decent history with Nintendo, and legacy in general. If he'd make it in, I think it would be a reveal roughly on par with Cloud's in Smash 4, based on the amount of "Holy ****" reactions it would bring. But on the other hand, his series is heavily associated with the decidedly not video game-based Disney animated canon (+some other Disney properties), with him being seemingly even outright owned by Disney. And while it's certainly possible to represent him with just the KH series' own original content, he would still kinda be missing something.

Want: 40%
I never played a KH game in my life (still somewhat foolishly hoping that these compilation games are gonna come to Switch one day. . .), but due to me being friends with several people who are really into the series, I'm pretty familiar with it. Sora isn't really my most wanted by any means, but I suppose I'd like having him in. 'Course, part of me would prefer it if an overly greedy megacorporation has absolutely no hand in Smash, but that'd be honestly rather hypocritical to say, since there's already enough shady companies involved with/represented in Smash, and not even Nintendo themselves is exactly squeaky-clean. There's just no ethical consumption under capitalism.
. . .And I wouldn't be surprised if this was the first time anyone has actually brought up capitalism in a rating here.

For me personally Geno just seems to be in this really odd position that Erdrick/Hero was in last year. While I initially did not give Hero benefit of the doubt, I cannot deny that his entire speculation period hit on almost the same beats that Geno is going thru the past couple of months. I still give him 65% and I even admitted most of that was just a little bit of bias alone. Part of me still feels like he is just as likely to only get a costume out of this whole thing.

Guess I'm really not up to date with the speculation scene, 'cause last I checked we currently don't have a datamined character code name with several insiders that are talking about a Square Enix character.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Geno

25% Chance

Yeah... I will say that Geno is such a unique case that my ratings for him vary based on my mood and what time ya catch me rating him. After Banjo I gave him high marks, but gun to my head right now I think Geno is not as likely as people are saying. Giving Geno over a 50% Chance is always gonna be a risky gamble.

The big thing however that makes me hesitant is the fact that spoilers, Smashboards is an echo chamber and not reflective of the Smash community at large. While Geno has had some persistence due to sheer exposure, he is still a super niche choice at the end of the day. If we lived in the alternative timeline where Chrono was pushed super hard since Brawl, I doubt people would even talk about Geno. The fact of the matter is that as much as I hate to say it, Geno is a bandwagon pick, or at least started as one. The bandwagon might be stable now and there is a diehard following, but Geno's popularity is so integral to his chances that it has to be looked at. The Brawl era speculation is well before my time, but a cursory analysis would say that few characters have stood the test of time as well as Geno has.Brawl speculation was a weird time, but for the most part characters that were popular in speculation either ended up getting in and to a lesser extent or were something people had a general expectation towards . So Brawl kind of was vindicated in terms of some of its big names, but some still lingered. In terms of getting into the game, stand out as the Brawl-era speculation characters that had the biggest push that managed to end up in the game. actually did not have as big of a following in the Brawl era, as DKC fans were pushing a certain monkey first. I also will for the sake of argument cut out cut veterans: they already have a built in appeal and fanbase that kind of puts them on another level. The obvious example is Mewtwo, but given he is still one of the most popular pokemon and was overall the most requested character for 4, he's a bit of a weirder example. Even excluding Mewtwo, notice how one of the first things that they decided for Ultimate was to bring back all characters? It is clear they nderstand that these characters have a built in popularity.

So what was the point of that detour? Well, very few of the super old school popular picks are still out of the picture and still having a strong fanbase. The only other example I would say is Isaac, but that is mainly in the West. Geno has truly stood the test of time for fan demand in a way that many other Brawl all stars did not. I hate to say it, but a great example is Toad. Toad was a super popular request back in the day, but his support has faded outside of a few diehard loyalists. Krystal is another example. What was once one of Brawl's true big names in speculation has more or less faded away completely. The fact that Geno has stood the test of time is something that still amazes me to this day. So that begs the question: why?

Well, I think there are two reasons. First of all, the Mario RPGS in general are pretty good. Every wonder why Paper Mario Origami King was looked at with such scrutiny? It was because the classic Paper Mario and M&L games were dang good. Both games draw their roots rather directly to some extent from Super Mario RPG. The games have similar combat systems and take a more liberal view on the Mario world (or used to, damn you Miyamoto). Geno, while representing Mario RPG itself, is somewhat of a greater representation of Mario RPGs as a whole. If you want to get Mario RPG representation outside of Geno, what are your options? Rolling the dice and hoping Sakurai chooses to not make Paper Mario entirely based on newer content? Fawful, who at this point is toast after Alpha Dream is deader than disco? I think part of the goodwill towards Geno is he is a big symbol of Mario RPGs in general in the fans eyes, rather than just Mario RPG to an extent.

The other reason is he is just kind of cool. The idea of a possessed puppet serving a higher authority complete with a Gatling gun and laser cannon is just cool. He truly would have a moveset that would be unique, especially if themed around timed hits. I think the design of the character is a big part of why he stuck around and drew new fans.

That being said, there are big hurdles for him. Geno is effectively not going to be a strong character in terms of bringing in new fans or promoting a new game. Geno solely exists to make hardcore nintendo fans happy in terms of smash. While Geno does have demand to keep him in the fight, the fact of the matter is he is probably not getting a game unless Nintendo and Square decide Super Mario RPG 2 is happening. But I think the biggest part is that Geno is also pretty niche. He is a the most unique character in smash speculation due to the fact that he is so niche. While Sakurai seems to be willing to play ball, the ball is also in Nintendo and Square's court, who may wish to try something else. Overall, time is gonna tell.

75% Want

At this point, Geno's fans deserve it. While they sometimes can be pretty... culty on their bad days and have a bit of a victim mentality, they have stuck true. And I respect that. Geno also is a character that I think would be super fun to play as. Toss in the fact we would get a Forest Maze remix and likely a lot of songs from the greater Mario RPG spectrum and I am in a good spot.

So why isn't he higher. Well, simply put, I have my eyes set on a different Square character or two...

Sora

30% Chance

Sora has everything going for him. Huge name in gaming, in the limelight right now, tons of fan demand, everything. He really is one of the biggest names not in smash. So why am I a bit bullish on him.

Simple: Disney is hard to work with. Sora getting in means Nintendo and Disney need to play nice. There are a few issues with that. First, Nintendo is entering the theme park business. This might sound dumb, but Disney is known for not playing as nice when people partner with their rivals like Universal. Disney even putting aside petty business squabbles would be a tough act to work with. This is Disney, the biggest entertainment company on the planet. Nintendo would likely not have the same creative liberties that they normally have. I am sure Sakurai if pushed could rep KH with minimal Disney influence shown with at best spirits for Mickey, Goofy, and Donald. But I doubt he would truly be able to.

100% Want

Which is a shame because I am a huge KH fan. It really is one of those franchises I have a soft spot for. Yes half of the games are really flawed, yes I have my gripes with KH3 as a whole, yes the writing is bad, and yes the voice acting is hit or miss. But damn I love these games. KH2FM is in my top ten of all time. I love this franchise, i love its music, I love it so much. Probably helps I am a disney fan.

Also the slimmest possibility of a Roxas "Echo" with the twin keyblades that still fights like Sora makes me giddy.

Nominating Concept: Fortnite character x 5

Day ends around midnight.

 

[-crump-]

Geno

Chance: 7%
(Because Seven Stars.... heh...)
If there’s one thing Geno’s got going for him, it’s his enduring fanbase, which is remarkably passionate about the character and has been since Brawl.

Unfortunately that’s literally the only thing he has going for him. No actual appearances in over a decade, owned by a third party company with a dozen other series they’d rather promote, and he wasn’t even the main character in the one game he appeared in.

I’d wager 95% of the primary market for Geno already owns Smash, and at least half already have the DLC pass purchased. Unless Square has a SMRPG remake hiding under its many sleeves (doubt it), neither company has anything to gain in the way of promotion from adding Geno. From a business perspective he makes absolutely no sense.
Waluigi would get ten times the social media buzz, and he’s from the same series.

The Geno costume from Smash 4 hasn’t appeared yet. The Heihachi costume hadn’t appeared yet either, until it did two months ago. Min Min proves that characters can get in regardless of being spirits in the base game. That’s great, but being a spirit was never Geno’s biggest roadblock. No tiny fragment of circumstantial evidence fans have compiled over the last year changes the fact that Geno is beyond irrelevant, he’s practically non-existent. The only thing he has is the fanbase that refuses to let him fade away, but this time I just don’t think it’s enough.

Want: 75%
...And that’s a shame because I actually think he’s pretty neat. I didn’t love Legend of the Seven Stars, I didn’t even love Geno in that game, but what I do love is seeing beloved characters come back after an eternity of absence. Geno might never appear in anything again, so I do think it’d be nice to finally give his fans, I dunno, a decent render to look at.
Plus he’s got a gun for a hand. That’s neat.

Sora
Chance: 28%
Probably the third biggest series SE has under its belt, Kingdom Hearts is definitely no stranger to passionate fans. Sora has been a decently loud request since at least Smash 4 times, and while the series has yet to grace the Switch, there’s enough history with Nintendo that seeing Sora in Smash wouldn’t be weird.

...Except it would, because of a certain logo hanging from Sora’s big key. Disney ultimately owns the character, and while they probably would play ball with Nintendo I don’t see it coming without some Pinnochio-esque strings attached.

If we get another SE character my bets are still on Lara Croft or 2B, call me crazy but it just seems more likely to me.

Want: 0%
I hate this dude’s design. The massive shoes, the goofy weapon, the dorky voice... I cannot stand Sora. Doesn’t help that I find Kingdom Hearts gameplay dull as hell, either.

Demi-fiend (SMT) x5

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

OKAY I BELIEVE YOU (i know that's Ventus's line)

Chance: 25%

Definetly possible, but not super likely. While the "main" series is not on Nintendo systems, almost every spin off has been on a Nintendo Handheld since the 6th generation so he has presence on Nintendo platforms, hell Chain of Memories was Cloud's debut on a Nintendo system! He is very requested and popular, especially in Japan where he is basically among the top 5.

The reason he is so low isn't because of his lack of merit as a character, if i were to rate him by that he would be far higher! But we can't forget he is owned by Disney. Yeah, Disney.

That doesn't mean it's impossible though. Nintendo and Disney have collaborated for decades. Some of the earliest Game & Watch systems used licensed characters like Snoopy, Popeye, and of Course: Mickey & Donald. Hell even before Nintendo was into gaming they used Disney's licensed with their blessing!

Granted, this was YEARS ago, and the people behind these negotations are likely not gonna be part of the negotiations for Sora's possible inclusion. Disney is supposedly infamous for their protective behavior towards their IPs, such as the Mickey Mouse Copyright debacle (in fact before Sora was created, Square wanted to use Mickey as the main character, but Disney wanted Donald instead)

With that said, Disney doesn't use Sora that much, not because they don't care about him, but because of what i like to call a "Diddy Situation". Back in the late Nineties, Nintendo didn't used Diddy in their Mario Spin Offs, because they saw Diddy as a Rare creation and not a Nintendo creation, and its notable in games like Mario Tennis 64 and the prototype of Mario Kart Double Dash (before Diddy was implemented) so much so that in the "if there was a Smash 2 poll", Sakurai listed Diddy among Rareware characters. It was only after Rare left with Microsoft that they started using him in games, and there is no legal evidence to suggest that Rareware owned Diddy during their tenure with Nintendo.

Using this same logic, one can come to the conclusion that Sora is in the same limbo. Disney owns them, but they can't do anything with him or his franchise unless given permission by Nomura, the man behind the Slaught-err i mean franchise.

Plus, Nomura is friends with Sakurai, so this is possible, just a little complicated. This is one character that would amazing to see due to the legal mumbo jumbo that needs to be done in order to be in Smash, so if Sakurai wants to shock its audience (again), Sora is good candidate for that, but you can't shock your audience if you are seen as super likely though, which is why i rated him so low.

Want: 35%

I wish i could get more excited for him, but i can't. Cloud was fun but his content is ****ing lacking, and Hero does not fare much better outside of having spirits.................and atrocious midis that are supposed to be songs. Part of the "Fun" in bringing new universes in Smash is them bringing all the content they can in Smash, and while im not asking for the Castlevania or SNK treatment, it would be preferable to what Square has been doing with their two main series. At least with Geno i mostly care for the character, but Sora coming with only the bare basics would take away all of the fun.

Also for some reason i wouldn't be surprised if Sora turns into a super annoying character to fight against, since Combo Heavy characters like Bayonetta, even when not OP, are still a ****ing pain.

Another thing is that i don't have that much access to KH at the moment. I only beat Dream Drop Distance on 3DS, and while i actually liked it a lot (ironically enough) i can't say it's enough for me to say that im a fan of the franchise as a whole (and yes, the plotline is needlessly complicated, but not in a Metal Gear haha conspiracy sort of way, im serious when i say they need an actual writer for the franchise's future because ****ING CHRIST) and i would like to at least play his franchise of origin a little more so i can show more excitement...........without having to buy another ****ing system in order to do that.

Maybe his trailer could change my mind.




...........also im expecting that if Sora gets in Smash, Nomura will try to tie in that with the KH Canon lore and **** that ****.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Sora:
Chance: 50% Stuff may work out, stuff may be in the way, hard to tell considering a KH game is coming to switch with Disney stuff

want: 100%. I want this boy in smash so damn bad, you have no idea. Been a fan of KH since KH2

 

[Sid-cada]

Geno

Chance - 7.5% - Geno is hard carried by his long-standing popularity. If it wasn't for the fact that he has been popular for so long, he'd litterally have nothing going for him. In fact, there's evidence that Nintendo is moving past him, as recent Paper Mario interviews state that Nintendo has grown more conservative in how they want to portray the Mario universe. While Sakurai may try to push harder for him, seeing as this is basically a now or never moment, I have no idea if either side is willing to play ball with esentally a character that neither side is interested in using.

Want - 45% - Honestly, I just don't get the appeal. I have many more Mario characters I would like in.


Sora

Chance - 5% - Sora depends entirely on how well Sakurai thinks he can represent Kingdom Hearts without Disney content. Given Sakurai's perfectionist leanings, it would not be surprising if Sakurai determined that he could not properly represent Kingdom Hearts without Disney, even if it's posible to get enough content from the original Kingdom Hearts stuff to make enough of a pack. However, if Sakurai was really into pushing for him, I can see Sakurai being willing to bend for him.

Want - 50% - Sora's an eh character to me. There are other characters I would rather have.


Nominations

Monster Hunter X5

 

[TheBeastHimself]

The way some people respond in this thread make it seem like if you like Geno, you're on the dark side of the force. He's been talked about to death so I can understand the annoyance of him showing up in this thread AGAIN, but at the same time, you can tell some people get annoyed if you're a Geno supporter which to me is plain silly. SMRPG is one of my favorite games and I love Geno's abilities, but who am I kidding? I'm only a bandwagoner.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

the best part about Sora getting in smash would be the kick ass music. If Sakurai adds him, I hope The 13th Struggle is included

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over. Rate Travis Touchdown and Rayman, predict Neku from TWEWY and Agnes from Bravely Default.

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain. This fixed schedule is driving me insane.

Neku: 50%
Agnes: 40%

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo x3
Sakura Shinguji ×2

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain
Nominations: Shuichi Saihara x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain since I don't have the energy for a full writeup. Travis definitely has some momentum with Suda51's good relationship with Sakurai and the leaked No More Heroes 1 and 3 ratings, so he's got new content coming. He feels like a character that in general just has a solid shot, but there's always the possibility that this builds up to nothing. What doesn't help is the current environment of "trust NOBODY!!!" speculation where everything is considered an NDA lie. Thrown in a super trolly creator like Suda51 and it's absolute mindscrew.

As for Rayman, he's in a bizarre spot. Been pushed for years for Smash by Ubisoft and supposedly turned down several times, it's odd that he isn't in by now. Granted Rayman's revival has fizzled out with having nowhere to go, the franchise isn't in the shape it was during the Smash 4 days. Alongside that we had those Ubisoft costumes in Byleth's pack, which could go either way for him. There were no Rayman costumes so this either helps or hurts him a ton.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5

Predictions:
Neku - 15.21% - The sequel and anime are definitely gonna boost people's confidence.
Agnes - 7.37% - While Nintendo-exclusive, expecting lower ratings due to Square wanting to potentially promote bigger franchises along with Bravely being good material for a spirit event like Mana and Octopath were.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

I'd really appreciate if everytime we rerated a character someone would link to the last time we've rated them. Using previous ratings for reference might be helpful for some people.

Ratings coming later today, maybe.

 

[fogbadge]

I wish i could get more excited for him, but i can't. Cloud was fun but his content is ****ing lacking, and Hero does not fare much better outside of having spirits.................and atrocious midis that are supposed to be songs. Part of the "Fun" in bringing new universes in Smash is them bringing all the content they can in Smash, and while im not asking for the Castlevania or SNK treatment, it would be preferable to what Square has been doing with their two main series. At least with Geno i mostly care for the character, but Sora coming with only the bare basics would take away all of the fun.

well sora being owned by disney means SE alleged singyness wouldnt apply here

abstain of both of today's characters, nominate nate adams x5

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Rayman Chance - 35%

I know this probably seems like a low chance, but Rayman is one of the characters I have the most confidence in right now. (alongside Geno) One of the few third parties represented in the base game without a playable character. To me Rayman seems like the most likely candidate for a third party already represented in Smash to get promoted to playable. (even moreso than Bomberman or Shovel Knight)

Rayman Want - 60%

I like Rayman, he's not a character I'm desperate to see get in but I do like him and appreciate him as a game character. Also I'd like to see world map tune from the original Rayman get a remix for Smash.

Travis Touchdown Chance - 15%

I feel like Travis is a character people overrate a little in terms of chances. Granted I don't really have any specific reasoning for this, I just don't see him as particularly probable. Again this looks like I'm giving him a really low chance but the character I'd give the highest chance (Geno) is still only at around 40% chance so it's still very tight. I think now it's just really really hard to say who has the best chance of being part of this fighter pass. There really aren't any characters I'd call obvious frontrunners.

Travis Want - 35%

I can appreciate his connection to Nintendo but I haven't played any of his games so all I have to go off is some game trailers and footage I've seen. He's the kind of character I wouldn't be mad to see get in but also I don't think I'd have much of a reaction either.

 

[Lyncario]

the best part about Sora getting in smash would be the kick ass music. If Sakurai adds him, I hope The 13th Struggle is included

You just made me think of how much that image would be spammed if Sora joined but only got 2 tracks like Cloud

 

[DanganZilla5]

Travis *********** Touchdown

Chance: 55%

This is a high score for a character of this caliber but I have a feeling he could be the Bayonetta of this pass. A character who is mostly Nintendo-based who has a game coming (maybe even 2 if that NMH 1 leak comes true) which means that Nintendo could be trying to push the series. He is similar to some of the characters from the first pass where not many people would say he has a high chance but then would be revealed and blindside a lot of people.

Some people would say Travis wouldn't work in Smash due to his vulgarity and dirty sense of humor but he ain't just about that. He is also cocky, sarcastic, crude, and immature, all of which can be included in his personality and it would still feel like the same character. He also has unique moveset potential. Beam Katana, suplex moves, Death Glove, and interestingly enough, an energy ball attack called Blueberry Cheese Brownie....yeah.

Overall, I just have a feeling Travis could be in this pass. He is the type of what the **** wacky character that Sakurai likes and judging from this picture he seems to have a good relationship with Suda51. And if you look at Wikipedia, Grasshopper has been making games for Nintendo for a long time and they are a Japanese company. I could see them being one of the next new companies to get a playable rep and at the moment Travis is their likeliest character.

Want: 75%

Heck yeah I want this guy in Smash! He is full of personality and would bring a different type of flavor to Smash when it comes to the character, music and stage. The music is catchy and is different from anything we have in Smash. And come on, he has an attack called Blueberry Cheese Brownie. That's all you need to be convinced that this character is cool.

_________________

Rayman

Chance: 25%

With the spirit rule broken, that is one obstacle taken away. Rayman is requested, has Nintendo history, fits in with Smash, and has unique moveset potential. Ubisoft seems so close to Nintendo and they even did a collaboration game with Mario and Rabbids. So it's really surprising that they don't have a character yet. In fact, Rayman's history with Smash is strange. He was the only third party character with no playable rep to have a trophy in Smash 4 and has a spirit in Ultimate. What's preventing me from going higher than this score is that it seems like Ubisoft is fine with the content they have in Smash already and it doesn't help that Rayman isn't that popular or successful in Japan.

So with all of that in mind, I would say Rayman is likely, but not that likely. I would like to give him a 40% because he just seems like a character that should be in Smash. But with everything taken into consideration and the fact that he hasn't gotten a brand new game aside from a Definitive Edition on the Switch and a mobile game (released last year) for several years puts him in a questionable spot. Not to mention while I think Altair is a hit towards this idea, I think Ezio could become a playable character with Assassin's Creed being more relevant and it being Ubisoft's big moneymaker.

I can't wait to talk more about Ezio. This rerate schedule is driving me crazy like everyone else.


Want: 75%

I've played a lot of the PS1 game and I really enjoyed it. Rayman should really be in Smash. I sound like a broken record but it's true. All this teasing is driving me crazy. He is just a perfect fit. He would be really fun to play as with all the things they could do with his floating arms and abilities. He has great music and would bring with him a gorgeous stage.

Predictions:
Neku - 11%
Agnes - 11%

Noms: Ezio x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Rabbidly ravin'
Chance: 40%
So Spirits are okay now, Nintendo and Ubisoft have teamed up this console generation already for a surprising gem in Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle, and Rayman has been on Sakurai's radar at least between the Sm4sh trophy(which was pretty random) and the Spirit.

However, I figured if Rayman was going to be included he'd have made it in either base game or the first fighters pass, which drops my percentage a bit. Currently I have a bit more faith in Crash than Rayman, and I'm not sure why as Rayman seems like he has a lot more going for him. Perhaps I've gotten swept up in the recent Crash revival hype.

Want: 65%
I used to be a bigger Rayman fan, but I can't deny that's dropped off in recent years and I partially blame the revivals of Spyro and Crash for that. With that said if he was included he'd still be by far my favourite DLC character yet.

I think the whole thing with Shantae's dev sending in a pic to Sakurai as a reference 'just in case you want to use our character in Smash' soured me a little too. Because if Ubisoft also did that for Rayman? Not a fan of it.

SCREAMING YOUR FAVOURITE DESSERT AS A POWER UP
Chance: 20%
No More Heroes is great. No More Heroes 2? Even better. No More Heroes: Travis Strikes Back was..okay we don't talk about that one, but I'm sure No More Heroes 3 is also going to be great.

I'm not confident in Travis though in Smash. Yes, he's mostly Nintendo exclusive, yes Bayonetta opened the floodgates for gory, sweary dark haired maniacs to kick the crap out of Mario and friends, but I have to wonder if No More Heroes is even on Bayonetta's level of recognisability.

Travis' games are mature for sure...well, immature honestly, but that's their appeal. Everything from him swearing to bisecting an opponent in two like a hot knife through butter to the save function being him going to the toilet to his recharge system being an elaborate masturbation joke. This is not for good girls and boys.

Want: 60%
I loved the first two games. I'm not exactly excited for NMH3 after Travis Strikes back in all honesty, but the main reason I've never been sold on Travis in Smash is for everything I put in the last paragraph of chance. Censoring Travis, which you'd NEED to do given the context of his titles, just wouldn't be Travis anymore.

I'd actually prefer he was just a Mii Swordsman outfit because frankly I don't think Sakurai can do No More Heroes justice whilst censoring it.

But if Sakurai wants another swordsman character...well, you can do a lot worse than Travis.

 

[Sari]

Music Post:

Rayman

Spoiler: Rayman Music

Travis Touchdown

Spoiler: No More Heroes Music

 

[BowserKing]

Ray-Man

Chance: 20%. Due to Min-Min becoming playable, Ray-Man’s chance of getting in has increased a bit. With that said, he is also the most likely a Ubisoft rep to get in.

Want: 100%. I was rooting for him to get into Smash since 2017, and he would be a fun character to play as. He also has some potential as well. Overall, Ray-Man would make a great addition to Smash Bros.

Travis

Chance: 15%. With a new game coming out, he would make a great choice for a Promotional character for Smash. But the question is when those that game come out.

Want: 70%. He would be a fun character to play as, and he would have some unique weapons and moves that would give him an advantage. Overall, he would be a Great choice for a Smash Bros rep.

Prediction: Neku and Agnes (10%)

Noms: 5 for Boss: Rayquaza

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

****HEAD.

Chance: 15%

No More Heroes, while a niche franchise, has managed to find it footing on Nintendo systems since the Wii. It's probably known as "that one Mature game series that is borderline Nintendo exclusive" so there's some unique appeal this series has over your average family friendly franchise. With that said, it's probably one of the reasons this series is so niche in the first place, and it doesn't have that great timing that allowed Joker to easily enter Smash.

Popularity wise, Travis is not unpopular at all, but he is not as mentioned as other characters. If im honest this is one character will likely get because the creator does nothing but pester Sakurai about him all the time (i mean Sakurai is friends with Kojima, Nomura, and Kamiya, and guess what all of them have their characters in Smash) but Nintendo is choosing th characters in this Pass so this doesn't seem likely in my eyes.

Want: 0%
Hard Pass on this one.

Chance: 1%

On one hand, Spirits are now fully on the table thanks to Min-Min, and its been a while since the negotations of Rayman as a Spirit (probably even before Smash Ultimate was finished and released) so i could see Ubisoft wanting to reconsider. and yes, i fully see Rayman as THE most likely and only likely Ubisoft char in Smash. Rabbids appeared with Mario in a crossover, but Black Mage was in a Mario Sports game and Cloud still had the honor of beign chosen. Rayman may not be the best selling Ubisoft franchise nowadays, but Mega Man got in before RE, Banjo got in Before Steve, Bayo got in over Arle and Kiryu, etc.

So i don't see AC as competition in the slightlest. Everytime Ubisoft opens their mouth regarding a character in Smash, it's always Rayman and the fans do so to. Capcom always was pestered with Mega Man in Smash, and lo and behold he was the first Capcom rep in Smash, fans and Microsoft talked about Banjo in Smash, and he got in before Steve, despite Minecraft beign the best selling game in the world. People only started talking about an AC rep ever since the Mii Costume.......actually no nobody talks abut AC in Smash, outside of maybe a few people here in this website and almost nowhere else. For every character that is not part of the "Smash Bubble" (Joker, Terry, Rosalina,) there are characters that fit in right there with said bubble (Sonic, Mega Man,, K.Rool

Rayman is no indie at all, and a lot of people underestimate his popularity and recognizability, but then against people do that all the time with European characters from all mediums. The only thing truly holding Rayman back is his lack of popularity and presence in Japan, a hurdle that affects almost all western characters not named Crash and Steve. With that said, at least his games have been localized to those audience (japanese versions of Rayman 1 and 2 were released for the Saturn and Dreamcast respectively), so at least that franchise is accessible to them, something i can not say about Reimu in comparison (OFFICIALLY speaking, not counting fan translations)

So why so low then? The Mii Costumes that's why. It's basically the same reason i put Sol on a 1% chance regarding the Kunio spirit, If Ubisoft had Rayman coming to Smash, they would have saved those Mii Costumes for his Pack, and it makes me think this is all Rayman's gonna get. It's only made worse by the fact that those costumes were released alongside the last fighter from Pass 1, so they were likely negotiated very late into development.

Want: 45%

Im not a fan of Rayman, but i loved playing Rayman 2 even if i never beat it. I also would love to try out Origins and Legends but those are not accessible to me right now. He's the only Ubisoft rep i actually would like to see, and Rayman fits well with the Colorful Nintendo cast that i grew to love.

 

[Sari]

We rated Rayman and Travis in February and April respectively. I'm gonna quote my previous ratings (and make a few minor adjustments) since not much has changed since then.

Rayman

Chance: 1%

• We got a bunch of Ubisoft Mii costumes alongside Byleth's release. If Rayman was actually planned to be a character they probably would've released those costumes alongside him. Maybe if the Mii costumes had been in the base game I'd give Rayman more leniency, but with the costumes being so recent I feel like that's all we'll see from Ubisoft in Ultimate's lifespan. It's like how I thought Rex's Mii Costume in the base game killed his chances for the first Fighters Pass.
• The Rayman series is not popular in Japan as the initial release of Rayman Legends was a flop over there as well as the Switch port many years later. I think unpopularity in Japan is a big blow to someone's chances especially when it comes to DLC.
• Would have to compete with Ezio (and possibly Rabbids) when it comes to Ubisoft characters.

Want: 55%
The Rayman games are pretty enjoyable and I can see Rayman being a fun fighter in Smash. While he's far from my most wanted platformer character, I'd be ok with Rayman making it in eventually (not before Crash though).

I know spirit promotions are officially a thing now but I just don't see Rayman being one of them.

-----

Travis Touchdown

Chance: 40%

• Popular request.
• Series is extremely close to Nintendo.
• New big and shiny game coming out this year means he could be a promotional pick like Bayonetta or Byleth. Also while the supposed port of the first game isn't a big factor to his chances I see it as a nice bonus.
• Suda51 expressing interest for Travis in Smash and meeting with Sakurai last year.

It's hard to think of things Travis has going against him apart from general competition. He's pretty much the Ultimate equivalent of Bayonetta in the SSB4 days except with arguably more things going for him.

Also Travis is in no way too inappropriate for Smash. As far as Travis' attacks with his katana go, they'd be no worse than Snake's neck-snapping or Bayonetta/Joker's guns. The only aspect of him that couldn't make it into Smash would be his sword charging animation (for obvious reasons), but they could either just change it to a regular charging animation or just not implement the feature altogether.

Want: 70%
I always wanted to get into the NMH series but was too busy focusing on buying first party games when I was a young lad in the Wii days. Although I have yet to actually play the games as a result of this, I'd be totally down for Travis getting in. He's a hilarious and cool character who would definitely stand out from the rest of the Smash cast.

-----

Neku chance prediction: 19.01%
Agnes chance prediction: 13.26%

Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x5

 

[Blankiturayman]

The Thingamajig
Chance: 45%
So, Rayman's in quite the spot. If you've been following Ubisoft's comments on Smash the past few years, it's more than clear he's the character they'd go with if they had the chance. He's made appareances as a "collectible" (Trophy, Spirit) since 4, funnily enough in 4 not only did he get a Trophy, but a few other characters from the series also did, even with models provided by Ubisoft! It's really funny, looking at the undertones it's like they really want him in. So why isn't he? I dunno, personally I'd assume priorities just get in the way, maybe they'd rather go for other characters... stuff like that. It doesn't help that Rayman isn't very popular in Japan. Hence him making appareances but only as "cameos" of sorts. Well, this aside, Rayman as a franchise has been with Nintendo since 2, and Ubisoft themselves does offer Nintendo games often, so it's possible they made the choice of getting him. The question is if they did, but I think we got a small clue in the last Fighter's Pass.

Remember how Byleth's Mii costume (again with these, haha) pack had Ubisoft ones out of nowhere? And they somehow added two of their bigger franchises, Assassin's Creed and Rabbids? This means Nintendo negotiated with them on DLC, to at the very least, get these costumes. Yet there was one glaring omission... Even now I'm not sure what this means. Maybe that's all the content Ubisoft is getting. Or maybe there's something more? Only time will tell. Of course, you could also say "Well, why would they put the Ubisoft costumes without an Ubisoft character?" and yeah, I agree a bit, but I'd say it could depend on when they decided to put these costumes in. Byleth came out well after FP2 was decided. So yeah, again, only time will tell.

Want: 100%
I'm very attached to this series and this character. Rayman 1 was one of the first games I played (Gold on PC, to be exact). The series is full of charm due to its dream setting, that while almost changing through the games, remains as a notable quality. Rayman himself could be a very fun character, especially if they play on the effect that he has no limbs. There's a lot more abilities he gets through the games that they could use as well, so I think he'd be very fun. I'd also love the music, something unique in Rayman, even up to Legends, is that the music keeps changing from game to game and yet it remains great. I'm surprised they did that much! Rayman 1's OST is still one of my favorites to this day (of course, probably speaking from bias there haha) so it'd be nice to see that. Of course, he'd also fit right in with the roster, as he's quite the cartoony character. Funnily enough, I'm not as much into other Ubisoft franchises. It's just Rayman that I've stuck with this long.

MOE~
Chance: 52%
Quite the high chance for Travis, but I'll get into why: long story short, there's a lot of factors regarding him that, if he were to get in, I'd think "ahh yes, this makes perfect sense." For one, NMH as a series has been with Nintendo for a long while, so there's that closeness factor, to the point that despite only showing about two games (I forget if there were more) at the last Game Awards, No More Heroes 3 had the priority of being one of those. It's a game that's made the spotlight many times, and for a while, Travis Strikes Back was also exclusive to Switch. So it's clear there's that connection.

And of course, there's also the fact that Suda51 definitely wants him in, as he's mentioned it many times. He's made it clear that he isn't many times in the past, but with NDAs and stuff I dunno how it'd go for FP2 (plus those statements were mostly before FP2). Of course this might not mean much as you'd probably be hard-pressed to find developers that don't want their character in Smash, but it's something to keep in mind. I think it could go either way, and if they want a new character that could have good appeal, he'd make sense.

Want: 45%
Admittedly, I've only played NMH1 but it's a very nice game. I really liked Travis' personality in it and if they were to bring him in, I think he'd have a pretty awesome moveset-- he'd probably need to keep his beam katana's energy on check kind of how Inklings keep their ink. But yeah, I don't have as much attachment to this character as I do with others, I think he'd be pretty cool but still. If anything, he would indeed bring some great music with him, and that's going from NMH1 alone. Maybe I'll play 2 and the rest at some point, alongside some other Suda51 games.

Predictions:
Neku: 20%
Agnes: 30%

Nominations:
Proto Man x5

 

[Megadoomer]

Rayman

Chance: 40% - on one hand, Ubisoft had a high profile crossover with Mario, of all series. On the other hand, the Smash developers have gotten permission to include Rayman twice now, and they've only included him as a collectible. I'd say that Rayman's one of the more likely third party characters, along with Geno and Ryu Hayabusa (Geno for reasons that I just mentioned; Ryu Hayabusa for the series' history and the fact that Koei-Tecmo's made multiple Nintendo spin-offs and helped with the development of a main Fire Emblem title), but I'm not sure if the development team's interested in him.

Want: 90% - he's somewhere in my top ten. My score might be higher whenever I get around to playing Rayman 2, but even based on Rayman Origins and Legends alone, he seems like he'd be a great pick with a lot of potential for moves, stages, and music. (even if the mariachi version of Eye of the Tiger likely won't make the cut)

Travis Touchdown

Chance: 20% - even though Suda 51 has publicly wanted to see Travis in Smash for over a decade now, I'm not sure if it will happen unless we get a Joker or Bayonetta situation, where he proves unexpectedly popular with Sakurai or the fans respectively. Travis could easily be toned down, and he'd have a creative moveset (especially if they incorporated bits from Travis Strikes Again), and he's back in the spotlight with a recent release and another game that's supposedly coming out later this year, but his series isn't exactly well-known, even compared to the more obscure third party franchises on the roster. I'd love to see it if it happens, but I'm not sure if it's likely. (then again, I had similar feelings about Bayonetta being in Smash back in Smash 4, and she wound up getting in)

Want: 95% - I've gotten No More Heroes 2 and Travis Strikes Again on launch (might have gotten NMH1 on launch as well, but I'm not sure), and I've wanted to see Travis in Smash ever since Suda brought it up. The No More Heroes games are bizarre and a ton of fun, and I'd love to see what they could do with Travis in Smash given some of the crazy things he's pulled off. I might have to replay some of Travis Strikes Again to see what he can do in that game, but between his lightsaber beam katana, pro wrestling moves, stranger powers that are named after anime characters, and his abilities from Travis Strikes Again, there's a lot of potential. Plus, given how self-aware the series is, his trailer would be great.

 

[SharkLord]

Rayman
Chance: 65%. On one hand, Ubisoft is on good terms with Nintendo, he's a fairly popular request, and Spirits are no longer on the table. On the other, his revival's fizzled out, so there wouldn't be too much to push. But hey, not everyone needs a new game to push.
Want: 40%. He'd be cool, I guess. Of course, that's what I say for everybody.
Travis Touchdown
Chance: 70%. He's got a new game in the works for Nintendo to push, and Suda51's fine with Travis in Smash. All things considered, he'd in a pretty good spot. As for his more mature elements? Just tone them down. Make him charge his sword like a soda can, and leave out the really naughty stuff. We did it for Bayonetta, we can do it for Travis.
Want: 55%. Don't know too much about him, but he sounds legitimately fun and GaMetal's remix of We Are Finally Cowboys is amazing. Just listen to it.

Predictions
Agnes: 32.87%
Neku: 38.91%
Nomination: Klonoa x5
Anyways, are we going to do this when CP7 releases? Because we'll probably only reach Day 500 by the time they actually release. Maybe ditch some of the characters so we can actually get a move on, because these "days" take half a week to get through.

 

[-crump-]

Travis Touchdown, the Crownless King:

Chance: 55%
My dark horse pick for the Fighter Pass.
NMH has close ties with Nintendo, and with NMH3 releasing exclusively on Switch and potentially more from the series coming alongside it, there’s definitely merit to including Travis as a promotional move. Suda51 has stated multiple times that he wants Travis to join Smash, so I doubt it would be hard to negotiate for him, either. Coming from a mature series isn’t really a roadblock seeing as Bayonetta made it just fine. Have him shake the beam katana like a can of soda, bam he’s fine.

Really the only thing keeping me from rating him higher is that NMH is a fairly obscure series, and aside from the aforementioned Bayonetta, most of the 3rd party additions have a significant legacy or a massive fan following, both of which Travis is lacking in. It’s also not clear how many 3rd party characters we’ll get at all in this pass; things starting with Min Min doesn’t make me the most confident there will be more than two or three at max, and there’s a lot of competition

Want: 80%
I’ve always had a fascination with NMH, despite not... actually playing the games (I was too young when they released and nowadays they’re too pricy or hard to emulate) and I think Travis would make a really neat sword fighter. Having a fighter with really strong hits who has to constantly recharge to keep swinging is a neat concept.

________________________
Look Ma, No Limbs:

Chance: 40%
Probably the most likely Ubisoft rep, and an Ubisoft rep does make a lot of sense. That said, Rayman hasn’t done much in a while, and it strikes me as odd they would release Ubisoft costumes with Byleth if they knew there Rayman was in the pipeline.

Want: 30%
Pure indifference. He’d be a fine addition, he makes sense, but his reveal wouldn’t get me excited.

Demi-fiend x5

 

[Lyncario]

Travis Touchdown
Chance: 24%
He has good chances for sure, but I feel like a lot of people overestimate them. Sure, he has NMH3 that's soon coming out as a Switch exclusive, and leaks point to NMH1 also getting ported to the Switch but that's not all there is to the chances of a character. While Suda and Sakurai being friends is certainly a plus, especialy snice Sude said he would be ok with Travis in Smash, Nintendo is choosing the dlc and not Sakurai. However, Travis still has a pretty sizable chance to get in. He also has a good amount of fa nrequest, especialy since Ultimate. The biggest thing he has to worry about is getting a spirit event around the release of NMH3, which could happen either the week it release or over a month after (rip Astral Chain)
Want: 70%
He looks cool, he could be very fun to play as, NMH has some great bangers, and NMH also has history on Nintendo system. He is only so low because I did not play his games, but he's pretty much a "perfect" 3rd party character to add to Smash, just like Ryu Hayabusa is and Erdrick/Hero were befoe they got in.

Rayman
Chance: 22%
Rayman got some things going for him. Not the trademarks he got a while ago, but more the fact that he seemed like a character that could get in if there was just a bit of extra. He got a lot of fan request since Sm4sh in both Europe and the US, though he has almost none in Japan. There's also the fact that Ubisoft and Nintendo go along pretty well together since they had Mario Ravving Rabids and Starlink Battle for Atlas that featured Fox in the Switch version. Of course, this does not confirm him, nowhere near that, but it's still good. He however has the problem of being a western 3rd party character who is unpopular in Japan (for context, K.Rool was popular and first party, Ridley was unpopular but first party, and Banjo was a popular 3rd party werstern haracter in Japan), so that may be really big against him, but I still think that h has a chance since spirits don't disconfirm anymore. Of coure the Ubisoft mii costumes could go against him as why wouldn't they come with Rayman, but they could also go for him, as Rayman wasn't one of them.
Want: 100%
Rayman is one of my favorite character from my childood, and I wanted him in Smash ever since I played Smash. He would be extremly fun, and the concept of a limbless character has yet to be seen in Smash even if Min Min arguably already fufill that, but Rayman could have his own stuff too, like the concept of him using his body parts as projectiles that while it seemed weird at first, grew on me as time passed. So yeah, I would love to have Rayman in Smash.

Predictions:
Agnes: 26.7%
Neku: 19.4%

Nominations:
SMT rep x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

A football joke idk I'm not American

Chance: 43%
Travis is probably the third party character I find the most likely. He's basically an honorary Nintendo character, NMH is known as a Wii series more than anything. And of course NMH3 is the biggest Switch title on the horizon (well, that we have a release window for), and everyone's been getting Bayonetta vibes – as in, Nintendo "adopting" a third party franchise by financing and publishing their games. Travis therefore has corporate synergy very much on his side. And also, he's just the kind of third party character that we should expect given the first Pass: not juggernauts, but smaller, mostly relevant and Nintendo important, franchises.

Want: 90%
I love NMH 1 and 2 (hope they re-release them on Switch because it's a long time since I've played them and I no longer have access to them), I love Travis as a character, No More Heroes feels strangely fitting for Smash and I'd hope that it would level up NMH's standing to where it should be.

This video is sponsored by Rayman

Chance: 11%
I don't think Rayman's getting in. Frankly, I think the reason he hasn't gotten in already is because Nintendo doesn't give a **** about Rayman. He isn't popular in Japan, he doesn't regularly get games released, there's not exactly an incentive for Nintendo to promote him. Hell, Ubisoft's only pushing him because he's the closest fit with Nintendo's stable of cartoony mascots, and therefore the likeliest to amass a Smash following (or at least, if we're playing by the Smash 4 rules of popularity). But make no mistake: Rayman is not Ubisoft's mascot, and they don't have much invested in him either. If Rayman's popularity was higher, I'd look at his odds better, but as it stands, there's plenty of other, more popular characters, many of which wouldn't even require licensing. Aside from that, he's arguably in a worse place than he was in Smash 4 and base game Ultimate, as he grows ever more irrelevant and is unlikely to get new games soon.

I'm the outlier here, but I think Ezio has much better odds as a Ubi rep.

Want: 50%
For his fans, but Rayman does nothing for me as a character.

Noms: Jason and Sophia x5
Tomorrow should be interesting. Who will win? The protagonist of a single game with an upcoming anime and rumored sequel? Or the protagonist of a series with two sequels that doesn't star her?
I'll go with Neku 22.08% and Agnes 15.68%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Yesterday was the first time someone just chose to give their noms to me. Thanks for that AugustusB ! (At least, I'm hoping that's what they meant by "dealer's choice")

Spoiler: Nominations post-Geno/Sora pre-Rayman/Travis Touchdown

Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x235
Tidus x205
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x190
Nate Adams x185
Moogle x175
[Rerate] Ezio x170
Shuichi Saihara x166

150 - 101

Alex Mason x140
[Rerate] Frisk x135
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x121
The Stretchers x120
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x120
D.Va x115
Red (Angry Birds) x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Billy Hatcher x110
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x110
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x105

100 - 51

Echo: Xion (Sora) x100
Sakura Shinguji x100
Klonoa x90
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x90
Concept: Deltarune content x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
Proto Man x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x75
Boss: Ender Dragon x73
The Terrarian x65
Concept: Rocket League rep x65
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x62
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x55
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x55
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x54

50 - 25

[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x50
Giygas x50
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x50
Amiya (Arknights) x50
Hades (Kid Icarus) x50
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x45
Gooigi x45
Dr. Goomba Tower x45
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x40
Stage: Bowser's Castle x40
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
John Marston x33
Concept: Returning stages x31
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
[Rerate] Monokuma x30
Jin Sakai x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
Magolor x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x25

Under 25

Boss: Rayquaza x24
Echo (Olimar) x21
Yoshimitsu x20
Black Shadow x20
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x20
Lora and Jin x20
Concept: Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed x20
Ghirahim x20
Zeraora x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Cynthia x15
Concept: Fortnite character x15
Taranza x11
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Vi (Bug Fables) x10
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x10
Tetra x10
Chell x8
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x7
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Demi-fiend x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Kass x1

Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume passes Nate Adams and takes third place.

Monster Hunter cuts past 100 noms.

Echo: Zeraora, Amiya, and Hades all reach 50 noms and are saved from the purge.

Mii Costume: Alex Kidd escapes the under 25 world.

A newcomer emerges! It's Demi-fiend, with 5 noms.