Takamaru
3.36% Chance - 59.56% Want
Last time we rated him he got 1.41% chance and 39.92% want. This was rated presuming that his AT was no issue, yet he still grew in both areas by a lot. Maybe people are more lenient to Assist Trophies, or Nintendo characters. Or it could be that being rated with Lip and Mach Rider made him look better than when he was rated with the likes of Waluigi and Isaac.
Winner of predictions was
Ridrool64
with 3.20%
Lip
7.49% Chance - 62.14% Want
Last time we rated her she got 3.92% chance and 48.94% want. That was just a couple of days after Joker's reveal, so of course things looked quite grim for her. Between then and now, we've gotten two first-party characters and Panel de Pon got an international release, which explains her rising scores.
Winner of predictions was
Sari
with a near-exact 7.50%. .01% off! So you get 10 extra noms.
However, I should point out that there was a single outlying score that put Lip at over 40% chances. Without that, she'd have gotten a 5.09% chance.
Mach Rider
3.29% Chance - 57.31% Want
Last time we rated her she got 2.93% chance and 57.92% want. Honestly, not much has changed for her since then (this was when we were waiting for Joker to release).
Winner of predictions was
Ridrool64
again with 3.20%
Chorus Kids
11.32% Chance - 76.69% Want
Last time we rated them they got 10.69% chance and 54.50% want. The small surge in chance could be explained away by Byleth and Min Min being included since, but over 20% rise in want? I got nothing, that's just astonishing.
Winner of predictions was
waddledeeonredyoshi
with 10.66%
In a shocking turn of events, the Chorus Kids are now the second most wanted character!
Karate Joe
8.75% Chance - 75.82% Want
Last time we rated him he got 9.94% chance and 47.97% want. He took a slight dip in chance, so I guess perception of likelihood shifted from him towards the Kids a bit. But, damn, that's a nearly 30% difference in want!
Winner of predictions was
waddledeeonredyoshi
with 8.89%
And Karate Joe is the third most wanted character, right after the Chorus Kids.
Rhythm Girl
6.68% Chance - 72.73% Want
Last time we rated her she got 5.02% chance and 37.25% want. She was rated a few days after the other two, and the pattern is the same: a small change in chance (positive, like the Kids), and massive rise in want.
Winners of predictions were
Sari
and
NintenRob
with a precise 5.00%
Unlike the other two, Rhythm Girl barely misses out on the top 5 most wanted characters (she's 6th). She does however make it into the top 5 for first-party characters, landing 4th place.
Obviously it's quite surprising to see three Rhythm Heaven characters all nabbing +70 want scores in the same day. While normally you'd see that in characters where the fans really came out in droves to rate them, that wasn't the case here, and in fact the ratings were mostly the usuals (I don't think the RH thread was even notified). I can think of a few reasons why this happened though. One, there were few ratings. This by itself doesn't explain why the ratings were so positive, though it might be that people with negative opinions simply abstained. Two, ARMS getting a rep despite not much of a promotional bent might have made people more keen to get characters from new, unrepresented first-party franchises. Three, the future of the franchise is in doubt, which could've led fans to want a Smash rep more urgently to save or even level up the franchise. Four, I noticed that many marked the inherent moveset uniqueness of any of these characters as a positive, so that could be playing a big part. Either way, Rhythm Heaven basically runs the most wanted, and with most of the big dogs of speculation already having been rated in this rerate schedule, it looks like it'll be so for a long time.
Geno
39.88% Chance - 63.85% Want
First rating (post-Nov 1st Direct, pre-release): 18.10% chance - 43.03% want
Second rating (post-E3, pre-Terry): 8.09% chance - 54.39% want
Third rating (post-Terry, pre-Byleth): 39.71% chance - 61.90% want
Fourth rating (post-Byleth, pre-ARMS rep): 42.50% chance - 62.93% want
Won't go in-depth to why Geno's scores changed through time because it seems self-explanatory given each "stage" of speculation. However I'll mention that Geno pretty much seems to have settled, as the last three ratings have yielded similar scores.
Winner of predictions was
YoshiandToad
with a precise 37.00%
Sora
34.78% Chance - 68.38% Want
First rating (post Nov 1st Direct, pre-release): 15.87% chance - 38.64% want
Second rating (post E3, pre-Terry): 7.32% chance - 47.47% want
Third rating (post-Terry, pre-Byleth): 39.40% chance - 63.67% want
Fourth rating (post-Byleth, pre-ARMS rep): 40.58% chance - 54.44% want
Sora's scores, unlike Geno's, aren't clear cut at all. The first 2 ratings are obvious, but the last 3 are pretty odd. Why was his chance score higher when we started getting Nintendo characters than after? And why did it fall between them and now, when we have a Kingdom Hearts game coming to Switch? And how do you explain that erratic want? I think it'd be better if we stopped rating Sora on the same days as Geno, given how they're sometimes seen as competition and that might be affecting the scores.
Winner of predictions was
waddledeeonredyoshi
with 34.68%
Sora is now the fifth most wanted third party character!
These two characters' roles as controversial choices was incredibly notable this time. Both their want scores were on track to get 80+ scores, and then they tanked. Though I wonder if Sora's controversial with the Geno fans that came to the thread to support their guy, or with the Smash fandom in general...
Rayman
22.86% Chance - 59.00% Want
First time we rated him he got 36.86% chance and 59.88% want. This was for the pre-release window; so I don't even know if his Spirit was a known factor. Second time we rated him he got 8.15% chance and 64.03% want. This is from after E3, and it's safe to say that the sentiment was that Spirits disconfirmed at that point in time. Last time we rated him he got 11.53% chance and 52.35% want. Obviously things got a bit better with the confirmation of further DLC, but it wasn't until now, with the Spirits barrier completely gone, that make have decided to be more confident in him. Want seems to come and go, but with no new games that's probably just cause of the whims of participants.
Winner of predictions was
DrifloonEmpire
with 23.43%
Travis Touchdown
43.45% Chance - 55.00% Want
First time we rated him he got 12.88% chance and 43.00% want. This was solely on the promotional potential of Travis Strikes Again, which now seems quaint in comparison. Last time we rated him he got 45.28% chance and 62.86% want. This is where his chances seem to lie after the bombshell announcement of No More Heroes III at TGA. But strangely enough his want really fell. Maybe the hype isn't as strong now? It's been pretty long since then and we've had little more in the way of advertising for it.
Winner of predictions was
Blankiturayman
with a precise 45.00%