Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[TCT~Phantom]

Are we still on a two-day basis?

Yes, day will end later tonight.

Abstaining x 10 to boss rush myself.

 

[Sid-cada]

Tracer

Chance - 1% - Yeah, that AMA is enough to make me say that she isn't that likely. While their may be some wiggle room, I think an NDA would stop stuff like this in their tracks.

Want - 40% - A little nervous on how OP she could be. Rewind is basically "that hit didn't happen" button. Even if she didn't get the heal with the original ability, the ability to instantly negate the knock back and positioning of a character is a bit too much for my tastes. Otherwise, I'm kinda eh on her.


Diablo

Chance - 0% - Sakurai typically chooses the first character in the franchise to best represent the mechanics of their home series gameplay. Diablo, as far as I'm aware, can't do that. Take into account the completion he faces, and I have very little hope in him.

Want - 50% - Diablo's an eh for me. He's just a character I don't care about.


Warcraft Representative

Chance - 0.05% - Right now, Blizzard's too busy trying to fix the disaster that was Reforged. World of Warcraft is going strong-ish, though I doubt a switch port is in the works. I struggle to think why they would choose one, given that there are other characters who would probably be able to bring in more excitement.

Want - 50% - Another just there character. I don't have a strong opinion.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over

Rate Sephiroth and 2B, predict Mimikyu, Meowth, and Lycanroc.

 

[Perkilator]

Again, abstain. I just wanna rate new characters already.

Mimikyu: 10%
Meowth: 40%
Lycanroc: 10%

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo x3
Sakura Shinguji ×2

 

[Sari]

Some songs for today's characters:

Sephiroth

Spoiler: FFVII Music

2B

Spoiler: NieR: Automata Music

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Abstaining on 2B.

Sephiroth
Chance: 3%
Although another FF rep seems possible, I don't see it being a FF7 rep. And that's if SE will even consider another rep. Sephiroth just has too much competition from his own franchise, not to mention the rest of SE, and combined with the already low chances of another SE rep...well, no.

Want: 30%
The FF7 Remake was great, but...there are many others who are way higher on my list. Sephiroth wouldn't be my #1 most wanted FF character either.

Noms: Amiya X5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Sephiroth

Chance: 5% - Nintendo's good relationship with Square Enix continues, so no doubt they'll get another rep at some point. Alongside that, Cloud's amiibo is due for a rerelease in September/October, which would definitely pair well with a Sephiroth release. Sephiroth has his fair share of fan demand, just had his game see a big remake, and is an iconic villain in gaming, so what's holding him back?

A few things, one being major competition both within his own franchise and within Square Enix as a whole. Nintendo may not go for another Final Fantasy 7 rep, and there are other big characters in Square Enix like Geno and Sora who they may choose instead. Fuethermore there's the issue of content. Most Square Enix characters come with little content, and while it was more lenient for Dragon Quest, Final Fantasy 7 is a much different story. They couldn't even get any in-game artwork for Cloud's fighter spirit, so I highly doubt they'd be able to get enough content for a full-on Challenger Pack.

Sephiroth has a chance but has a good amount holding him back.

Want: 10% - Want for other Square Enix characters aside, if we get another Final Fantasy rep I'd much rather see someone from 1-6. Those games have a huge legacy on Nintendo systems and have even crossed over with Mario, so I think it'd be better to represent those games rather than double dip on Final Fantasy 7.


2B

Chance: 20% - Could very well be a Joker-esque pick of this pass. Both Platinum and Square have a good relationship with Nintendo and Sakurai really likes the game. So he may petition for her much in the way he did for Joker. There's also the fact that Sakurai and Yoko Taro are friends, albeit recently and they met for their famous dinner after the pass had already been negotiated. She also has her fair share of fan demand, so she definitely has a solid shot.

However, she does have a few obstacles of her own. Square Enix competition aside, there's Nier's (and by extension, all of Drakengard's) complete lack of a Nintendo presence. Yes, Joker only had Persona Q, but at least Persona's parent series Shin Megami Tensei has a significant Nintendo presence, and the Switch is still getting spinoffs like Scramble even if it can't have the main series games. By contrast, there's no plans to bring any of Drakengard's games to Switch, and the Switch isn't even getting the upcoming rerelease of Nier: Replicant. Because of this, Nintendo has little to gain from advertising the character. Yes, "Go play Banjo-Kazooie on Xbox", but the Bear and Bird are on a whole different level than 2B. They were long-demanded former first party characters who were a massive financial success. Furthermore, it further fueled the partnership between Microsoft and Nintendo. Meanwhile, Nintendo's already got plenty of Square Enix and Platinum games of their own, and they gain nothing from advertising a series that's on every system EXCEPT theirs.

There's also the matter of 'Smash is for good boys and girls". While Sakurai was a bit of a hypocrite given Bayonetta's inclusion, I don't think Yoko Taro would be happy about seeing her censored for inclusion, especially given the amount of detail he intentionally included when modeling her butt.

Want: 0% - The game certainly has its' merits, but I couldn't care less about 2B. I didn't really care for Joker's inclusion, so to see another Nintendo-irrelevant contemporary choice added in the remaining five slots for the foreseeable future would not be something I'd want to see. I played part of the game with a friend but the unsettling bizarreness and nihilist themes really turned me away from it, and 2B is a character where half of her popularity comes from sex appeal. She's just not a character that interests me and to see her get in over characters with greater fan demand and legacy would be extremely disappointing. Plus she's already been in tons of crossovers, so her inclusion wouldn't be anything special anyway.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5

Predictions:
Mimikyu - 1.32%
Lycanroc - 2.12%
Meowth - 10.33%

The two Gen 7 Pokemon will definitely get low scores due to only current-gen Pokemon usually getting the Pokemon newcomer spots. Meowth will deifinately see slightly higher scores due to Game Freak's bias, but even then there isn't much of a reason to push for Meowth and designing a challenger pack around him would be difficult.

 

[GoodGrief741]

They couldn't even get any in-game artwork for Cloud's fighter spirit, so I highly doubt they'd be able to get enough content for a full-on Challenger Pack.

One fighter, one stage, two songs and two spirits fulfills the requisites of a Challenger Pack just fine if need be. Keep in mind that, unlike the first Pass, this Pass wasn't even advertised as including Spirits, and we've already seen Min Min come with a reduced amount, so it's not out of the question that a character comes with few-to-none Spirits.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

One fighter, one stage, two songs and two spirits fulfills the requisites of a Challenger Pack just fine if need be. Keep in mind that, unlike the first Pass, this Pass wasn't even advertised as including Spirits, and we've already seen Min Min come with a reduced amount, so it's not out of the question that a character comes with few-to-none Spirits.

That's fair, though even on those standards the amount of content would be disappointingly low compared to the rest of the pass. Even with the rights issues, Dragon Quest was still able to get 8 songs along with a full spirit board.

 

[fogbadge]

sepiroth
chances: 50% i can see it happening. SE cant seem to make a game with cloud with putting sephiroth in as well so i can see them suggesting him to nintendo. and i can believe nintendo would reconize his popularity and in turn suggest him to sakurai because of that. its hard to say if sakurai would go for it but i wouldnt put it past him. mind you i wouldnt put anything past him at this point.
want: 70% there are other ff characters id like more but im not against it. after finally playing ff7 all the way through (by which i mean the original ff7 not the remake of only the first part of the game) it has led me to support a little more. because i finally saw what made him the iconic villain that he is as opposed to all the other times i saw him where really he was just riding on that iconicness where they expected you to know what a great villain he is.

abstain on 2B, i dont know anything about her game nor do i want to know anything about a game that reward people for looking up the main character's dress. platinum has issues

nominate nate adams x5

big characters in Square Enix like Geno and Sora who they may choose instead.

sora isnt square enix

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

sora isnt square enix

He's complicated

 

[fogbadge]

He's complicated

no he isnt he owned by disney and only disney

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Seperioth
Chance: 1%
I get that FFVII and Sephiroth are hugely iconic and that the remake recently released but the amount of FF content in Smash is so minimal that I'm not sure they'd even want to double dip with that series. Getting another fully fledged character from an already represented series is already unlikely since there's likely more appeal in expanding the crossover with new series and FF especially would be a long shot in that regard. I know jack about what happens behind the scenes but I assume Nintendo would prefer to have a new Square Enix series added where they know they could get more away with, such as the last two Square franchises we've rated.

Want: 12%
Eh, I still have to play FFVII but I do agree it needs its representation fixed. Since I'm not huge on any Square Enix character I'd be fine a double dip, despite me not expecting it. He'd have a very interesting moveset as well, compared to other Square options imo. That blade of his would have to be shortened significantly tho, let's not lie.

2B continued
Chance: 10%
Competition from other Square properties and the Nier series having zero presence on Nintendo does not give me much confidence in 2B. Yes, you can say Joker negates the latter as well as the former for getting in before Arle and that 2B could be in the same position as him but I'm not sure if lightning will strike twice. Atleast Joker has Q2 and Scramble and the SMT series on his side while we still don't have any sign of anything Nier related coming to Switch. But who knows, maybe Nintendo really doesn't care about that and thinks Yoko Taro's bond with Sakurai is reason enough.

Want: Abstaining

Mimikyu: 3.22%
Lycanroc: 4.82%
Meowth: 9.58%
Magolor x5

 

[Lyncario]

Sephiroth
Chance: 4%
Sephiroth has some things going for him, those things being that he's one of the most known and popular vilain in gaming, that he has good relevance again thanks to the FFVII remake, and also that he has a decent ammont of fan support. However, Sephiroth would also be a second FFVII character, and not only do we have yet to see a 3rd party series in Smash with 2 unique characters, but also FFVII has one of the most complicated copyright in all of gaming, seeing how Cloud got almost no additionnal content despite being base game in Ultimate.So yeah, he's unlikely.
Want: 90%
However, Sephirot would be sick as hell. He's not my favorite coice for a secnod FF rep anymore, that goes to Tidus, but he's still second because of how awesome he is and how awesome he would be in Smash. His moveset would be incredibly fun, even if he would turn out to be absurdly overpowered, which would honestly be part of his awesomeness. Also, One Winged Angel in Smash, that would be amazing.

2B in Smash or not 2B in Smash
Chance: 25%
This may be a bit high, but I feel that 2B is oddly likely. She would be a bit like Joker, as Nier Automata isn't on Nintendo systems, but she is still incredibly poplar and from a company with a good relationship with Nintendo that would make it work. Is she a "good girl", or at least good enough for Smash? More than probably, yes, and even if she wasn't she can most likely get covered up like Palutena was for Sm4sh, so I don't think of it as a true problem. I just feel ilke she's more likely than what some people think she is, probably due to Joker being in Smash.
Want: 95%
Nier Automata is an amazing game, and 2B is not only very cool, but she also has a big moveset that could translate very well to Smash. Between the swords, spears, and fists, she would be incredibly fun. Also Nier music in Smash would be so great too.

An edit because I fogot predictions and nominations

Meowth: 4.2%
Lyncanroc: 1.1%
Mimikyu: 1.15%

Nominations: SMT rep x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

One Winged Angel but with a long as **** sword

Chance: 21%

This is difficult to rate but I'll try my best. Sakurai did mention that he had regrets with Ultimate and there is a good chance that the lack of FF content is one of those regrets. So I could see Sakurai going back to FF7 and give the game the content it deserves. Heck with the lack of content it makes it easy to make a challenger pack for Sephiroth. It also helps that FF7 is now the most recent FF game thanks to the remake. Sephiroth is one of the most requested FF characters and he is a prime candidate for a secondary FF7 rep. Heck, he is downright an iconic gaming villain.

Now for the obstacles. Where do I even begin? Once again Square Enix is packed. You got not only heavily requested characters from other series but FF alone has several popular and requested characters including fellow FF7 characters like Tifa. Also, it might be difficult to balance the range of his sword. Yes I know Min Min, but just take a look at how fast Sephiroth uses his sword compared to any other character using a long-ranged weapon. It's bananas and this is assuming that we even get another FF character. You could also say that Sakurai could just cut his losses and focus on other series. At this point it's hard to either way but overall I can't be too confident in him.

Want: 50%

On one hand, Sephiroth would be really cool and would be able to give FF7 some of the content it needs. On the other hand, I kind of want other FF games to get the spotlight. In particular I just got back into FFXV so I'm kind of leaning towards Noctis in terms of want. But I can't lie, Sephiroth would be more hype, especially since Noctis has already been a guest fighter in another fighting game so it won't feel as fresh or exciting. Just my opinion though.

______________

A character that guest starred in a Bamco fighting game

Chance: 15%

Last time I rated her, I was way too harsh on her. So this is an opportunity to fix that. She is in a very similar situation to Joker where her game has practically made a name out of itself and Sakurai really likes the game. He also made friends with Nier Automata's creator although that happened when the pass was already made. 2B herself also has a surprising amount of requests and Nier Automata is a critically and financially successful game so it is definitely on Square Enix's radar.

But unlike Joker her game as well as her parent series Drakengard have never been on a Nintendo system whatsoever. They could announce a port of Automata alongside her inclusion, sure, but that still doesn't make it a great choice for Nintendo when Square Enix's other characters have more Nintendo connections.

Want: 1%

I still don't care for her. Square Enix has other characters I'm much more interested in. I like playing as her in Soul Calibur 6 but just because a character has good moveset potential, that alone does not mean I want them in Smash.

Predictions:
Mimikyu - 8%
Lycanroc - 5%
Meowth - 9%

Noms: Ezio x5

 

[BowserKing]

Sephiroth

Chance: 5%. While is a well known villain, his chance is very low, given how poorly Final Fantasy is represented. I’m surprised that he is not even a spirit in this game. If he were to show up, he could be a spirit or a Mii Costume, but it’s mostly a pipe dream, but since some other Square Enix franchises are getting better representation, Moreno Final Fantasy spirits or even a playable fighter would be a great choice.

Want: 60%. I’m surprised that Sephiroth is not in the game, and I think he would a fun character to play as, as long as his moveset makes references to his game. Plus if he joins the fight, we can finally get one winged angel as a soundtrack. Overall, I hope for more Final Fantasy representation and Sephiroth being playable would be a decent choice.

2B

Chance: 10%. Her chance is quite decent, due to her popularity, and her fighting skills. But if She does get in, there would be a bit of censorship, but if Bayonetta got in, then 2B could as well. Another thing is that she has not been on a Nintendo device, at least not yet.

Want: 60%. I think she would be a good choice for a Square Enix Rep and she would be fun to play as as well. I can see her face off against Bayonetta, Joker and R.O.B in a free for all, and I think she has potential in this game as well. Overall, 2B would be a good choice, and who knows, her appearance would promote her franchise a bit more.

Prediction: Mimikyu (15%), Meowth (15%) and Lycanroc (20%)

Noms: 5 for Concept: Second F-Zero Rep

 

[jamesster445]

Sephiroth
Chance: 20%
Want: 40%

I'll be up front in saying that I dont like the guy, never really did. So I wouldnt be too jazzed by his inclusion. But wait this is SE, I'm sure they'll find a way to ruin the secondary content.

2B
Chance: 20%
Want: 50%

Nier's best features are its narrative. While Platinum absolutely put their stamp on the combat, it's nothing more or less impressive than any of their other titles. I think 2B as a Smash rep is a little overrated because of this. But I'd be down solely for the music. And I have a sneaking suspicion that Taro wouldnt be as stingy himself, but the powers that be won't be so generous.

Nominations: Chell x5

 

[fogbadge]

Sakurai did mention that he had regrets with Ultimate and there is a good chance that the lack of FF content is one of those regrets.

when did he say this

 

[DanganZilla5]

when did he say this

He talks about it in this article.

Ok. I might have misremembered it a bit. Near the beginning of the article he talks about how there is always going to be regrets when it comes to development and not everything goes to plan. The regret part seems to just be in general sense, after all every developer has obstacles to deal with.

My statement may be a bit off. But Sakurai mentioned in this article that some series might feel underrepresented when it comes to music.

Basically, it's conjecture, admittedly. Sakurai never directly mentioned any specific regrets. But if you read the music article, he clearly has a level of passion for music. And with the other third party series getting so much music (Castlevania, Street Fighter and Mega Man in particular), FF really stands out in the music department. 2 songs is pitiful, especially coming from a game and series known for the music. So you have to imagine that Sakurai, on some level, does wish he could have gotten more FF music into the game. I'm not trying to put words into his mouth, but the fact that we don't even have songs like One Winged Angel in Smash is certainly something that the developers would have noticed.

 

[Calamitas]

Sehr viel rot (. . .okay, that won't really make any sense unless you speak German)

Chance: 5%
Well, Final Fantasy VII has had an enduring popularity over the years, which also was enough to get Cloud into Smash despite his limited connection to Nintendo over characters from the SNES FF titles. FFVII Remake also came out earlier this year, and was pretty successful and acclaimed. But the positives on Sephiroth's chances end there. As a third-party character, he inherently has fierce competition with other character from his parent company, and it just so happens that with Square Enix, there's plenty of competition. Between the likes of a Bravely Default character, 2B, Chrono, Lara Croft, (sigh) Geno and even another Final Fantasy character that isn't from VII, there's just far too many characters that I see as having a far better chance than he does. What also doesn't help is that from the looks of it, any content from FFVII is just a legal nightmare of rights that are divided up between many different people, so I'm having a hard time seeing Sakurai and his team wanting to go through this process all over again to get Sephiroth.

Want: 15%
He'd be kinda cool, I guess? Never played FFVII (though I intend to at some point), but there's plenty of Square Enix characters I'd rather see.

2B or not 2B, that is the question for this Fighter Pass

Chance: 25%
In the past, I've heard several people refer to 2B as a sleeper pick, who's actually really likely, and honestly? . . .I just don't see it. Sure, Nier Automata has been a widely successful game in 2017, which was enough to get Joker and Persona 5 into Smash, but that's just the thing. Persona 5 was the latest installment in a long-running series, whereas Nier Automata was the sequel to an ultimately rather niche game. Pretty much every third-party character in Smash has a rather long history to look back on (in terms of their series at least, Joker of course had his debut in 2017), and with that perspective, I don't really see 2B as being that likely. Still enough for 25%, though.

Want: Abstain
Don't have a PS4, so I never played Nier Automata. Therefore, no want rating from me.

Nominating Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x5

Predicting Meowth to get around 6.43%
Predicting Mimikyu to get around 2.33%
Predicting Lycanroc to get around 1.06%

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Sephiroth

Chance: 5%

I think if Square were to get another character, Nintendo would pick one from a new series rather than another FF7 character. I don't see this as likely when there are a treasure trove of other characters, even within FF to go for.

Want: 5%

I'd rather have characters from other Final Fantasy games or other Square Enix franchises get in. There's just too much competition in terms of my personal wants for me to give him a high score.

Abstain on 2B

 

[Calamitas]

I think if Square were to choose another character

They aren't, though. Character choice still comes down to Nintendo and Sakurai.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Whoops, looks like I missed a few days. Ah well.

Length Vs. Girth, the JRPG.
Chance: 3%
As Final Fantasy reps go, I think he's pretty up there honestly. I'd even suggest he might be THE most likely Final Fantasy character since Remake is currently ongoing. Or at least someone from FF7 would be and it's either him or one of the two lead ladies in Tifa or Aerith.

Sephiroth is...and I know this word gets banded around a lot, iconic as a video game antagonist sitting alongside Bowser, Dr. Eggman and Ganondorf in terms of sheer fame. Which isn't bad considering he's really a one and done type of character.

Remake brings him kicking and screaming back into the limelight so if Sakurai approaches them about another Final Fantasy character there's a chance they'll suggest him.

Want: 40%
One Winged Angel is a jam, and we all know it. For that alone I'm boosting him 10%.

That said, I've never found Sephiroth particularly engaging as a character and whilst I respect his icon status in the video game hall of fame, I can think of Square characters I'd be far more excited for...namely Tomb Raider's Lara Croft who is arguably one of the few characters Square owns that beats him out in terms of icon status.

Pencil Girl
Chance: 15%
Let's not beat around the bush, Nier Automata has become a critical darling. Between 2B's striking design, the fun mechanics of the title in repeated playthroughs(no spoilers tho plz) and the fluid combat, it's no wonder the game was positively recieved.

People suggest her outfits a little too revealing but...is it? She's nowhere near as exposed as Mai is, with the worst being some leg on show and a bit of cleavage. Maybe I'm just numb to sexualised designs but that doesn't seem particularly lewd to me?

Want: 50%
I've yet to play Nier Automata having only gotten a hand me down PS4 a month ago, but it alongside Spider-man are on my "I MUST HAVE THESE GAMES" list. At current she's hard to judge since all I have to go on is the fanart community and the murmerings from the fans about how good the game is, so I'll keep her at a neutral 50%.

Still below Lara overall.

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x10

Predictions:
Meowth: 11%, Mimikyu: 4%, Lycanroc: 3%
I'm predicting everyone will be gunning for a Sword and Shield Pokemon if we get one in FP2. Meowth will do better because Team Rocket and he's always a relevant and important Pokemon in the anime as a result, but the Sun and Moon mon are already deemed news so old it might as well have been delivered by Postman Slowpoke.

 

[cashregister9]

Sephiroth
Chance: 3% - there are more Final Fantasy games than VII
Want: 3% There are more Final Fantasy games than VII

2B
Chance: 50% Nier has been crossing over lately.
Want: 95% Nier automata was a very good game and 2B could be quite unique.

 

[SharkLord]

I'm beginning to think I'm a habitual overrater.
Sephiroth
Chance: 30%. Final Fantasy is pretty darn iconic, FF7 especially. It helps that A: Remake has released recently, and B: FF7 isn't really represented beyond Cloud from Final Fantasy™. Seph would sell pretty well. On the other hand, Nintendo may want to go for another series, or just a more broad representation of the franchise.
Want: 50%. Not that big a Final Fantasy fan, but Sephiroth could definitely be cool with his oversized nodachi and magic, and he'd come with some pretty sweet tunes. Being the first DLC villain is nice, too.
2B
Chance: 60%. There's no denying that Nier: Automata is a success story. It's PlatinumGames' first major success, it's what got Yoko Taro mainstream recognition, it's sold millions of copies and has gotten lots of crossover content and even stage shows, etc. I could easily see 2B being the Joker of the pass. Plus, Nintendo seems to be on good terms with Square Enix, so that's a plus. On the other hand, there's a fair bit of competition, especially with Nier's lack of presence on Nintendo systems. There's also the whole "Good boys and girls only" thing, I guess, but she's closer to Bayonetta than Mai. It shouldn't be too hard to cover her up.
Want: 70%. I'd be pretty pleased with 2B. She's got a unique design, she could do some fun things with pods, weapon swapping and Doof-approved self-destructing, and Nier music is great. I'd definitely support her inclusion.

Predictions
Mimikyu: 2.13%
Meowth: 8.92%
Lycanroc: 3.96%

Nomination: Klonoa x5

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Kefka is better.

Chance: 1%

He's a video game character. That's it. I mean yeah he's one of the most iconic villains of gaming, but i don't think that makes him likely. We still have yet to see a Third Party franchise getting a non-echo newcomer, and while i see that as inevitable for the next entry, i see this game focusing on bringing new franchises or even companies on Smash. As of now Square seems to be satisfied with the minimal representation of FF despite the constant critcism, and i do not see the Remake changing their tune at all.

Want: 0%

No thanks. If we were to get another FF rep, i want Terra to be the one, or hell, any FF protagonist, even Lighting, before Sephiroth. I get that people want more FF content in Smash and i do so too, but i want it to be more Final Fantasy content, not just 7.

Butt Joke.

Chance: 3%

I believe that people are overrating 2B. Not here exactly but in other sites. Yes, Automata is really successful, but it's only one success in an otherwise really damn obscure series that is barely even known. Do people know that game is even a sequel? or that it's a spin-off of the Drakengard series? and none of the games so far have even touched a Nintendo system. Yes, Joker doesn't have Persona 5 on Switch, but at least other games related to Persona and SMT have been on Nintendo systems, same goes for the large FF franchise. Here we are talking about franchise that probably doesn't even know the word Nintendo.

Some people say this could be a Joker situation. I understand what they mean by that. Sakurai wants to add a character who is unexpected that comes from a hot new game that brings its franchise into the mainstream............but i don't see lightning striking twice.

1-Joker had timing. Just as Persona 5 was still fresh in people's minds, Joker was likely chosen for the Fighter Pass in advance and announced in the Game Awards (1 year between P5's release and Smash annonucement worldwide, almost 2 years in Japan since it was released in '16). It's been 3 years since Automata's release and nothing has come out of it. I feel Soul Calibur 6 was the game that capitalized on Automata's sucess by featuring her as guest. and while does not disqualify her by any means, it means that the magic timing Joker had it's lost on Her.

2-There's this desire among people that most Smash DLC reps will now appeal to outsiders, meaning that characters that are popular among the Smash Bubble are unlikely, dumb, unlikely and not profitable and instead will feauture brand new unique franchises outsie of Smash's demographic! But is that true?
Well Banjo seemingly disproves this argument singlehandedly, since it was the hardcore community among the Smash circles that pushed for him, and while it's true that Hero isn't popular in Smash circles, that is mostly in the west, in Japan they seemingly go hand in hand, and Byleth while extremely controversial, it's not hated beacuse Fire Emblem doesn't mesh with Smash's core choices, its that people are seemingly tired of the overexposure of the FE series in Smash. The only other character that fits this criteria of beign an outside is Terry, but at least Terry's games have been featured on Nintendo Switch thanks to Arcade Archives.

So you have this character that got a really popular game in an otherwise really obscure franchise (lacks prominence and iconicness, the franchise as a whole, not 2B) that is not even featured in Nintendo systems (lacks accessability, which louie g mentioned in Reimu's day, and after thinking of it, yeah i rated Reimu waaaaay too high), that is barely requested in Smash and only recently have been talking about to a small amount (lacks popularity in Smash circles, although she IS a popular character in her own right when talking about gaming). Yeah i don't see her happening. Just like there's no "Next K.Rool" or "Next Ridley" there's no "Next Joker", the only thing she had was timing, and that is gone, and i don't even think a Port could save her either.

Maybe in the future Nier will become a super iconic or at least really prominent and popular series and 2B will become one of its most popular characters..........or it could be a "Pogs effect" and this be the last time we see Nier beign heavily talked about, and seeing how Square treats its franchises im pretty sure it's the latter.

Want: 0%

And im glad because Dear Venus im tired of people talking about this ****ing game. Look im pretty sure it's fantastic and it deserves it's praise but good lord, i know Hype Backlash is gonna take effect on me cause it will not live up to it. No "muh females" or "muh uniqueness" will change that. As for Square reps, i only want Geno, maybe Terra if we really need another FF rep (and i don't think we do). Everything else can go to the Spirit or Assist category.

When it comes to Third Parties in general i would rather have them be accessible on Nintendo platforms or be associated with Nintendo, like Bomberman for example. This one does not do it for me.

Noms:
Vi (Bug Fables) X5

 

[Blankiturayman]

Sephiroth
Chance: 10%
It's no question that FFVII is one of the most known FF's out there, and Sephiroth himself is pretty known to go with it, but, I don't really see it. I think the most he has going right now is FFVIIR, which has done pretty well. Whether Nintendo wants to go with him or not is up in the air, personally, I think there are other SE characters they could go with at the moment, both in and outside FF.
Want: 30%
Sephiroth is cool, his battle theme goes without saying as well, I think his really, really long sword could be fun to see in how they'd implement it. Maybe give him some magic that Cloud doesn't have. But well... to be honest, there's other SE characters I'd prefer, again, both in and outside of FF before they add another FFVII character.

2B
Chance: 20%
Nier: Automata has done really well. I agree with most that she could be in a "Joker" situation at the moment should they go with her. New, popular game, done a surprising success, could gain demographic... but still, I'm not sure, call it a hunch but I'm not too good on her chances. Still though, I could see her. I'd say the "zero Nintendo connection" Nier has also doesn't help it much, depending on how they go about it.
Want: 25%
From what I've seen, I'd like her moveset. It sounds like it'd be pretty fun, but again, like with Mr. One Wing above, I'd prefer other SE characters first. Still though, I'd be okay with her.

Nominations: Proto Man x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Vicious

Chance: 20%
Sephiroth is one of the most iconic villains in gaming, from one of the biggest games ever, and he is sure to be huge hype bringer if included. Plus, FF7 is back in the public eye big time because of the remake. And given FF's lack of content, I can see Nintendo wanting to flesh it out through another pack. A couple of things to keep in mind: licensing for FF7 isn't difficult, it's expensive. You just have to get more parties on the table (Square Enix, Uematsu, Nomura?) all asking for a paycheck. This is no different from Dragon Quest, where the IP holder, character designer and composer all own their work; they still made it work. The other thing to keep in mind is that the FF content we have was negotiated way back in 2014. Things could very well have changed, particularly in the matters of budget and sway that Smash and Sakurai hold in the industry. So, all in all, I think we could get at the very least a pack with content comparable to Dragon Quest.

Now the cons, obviously, are the competition. I don't think being from a represented series matters as much as any, but there's still a lot of other Square Enix candidates and I could easily see any of them making the cut instead.

Want: 100%
Sephiroth is one of the characters Smash needs to actually become what it's claiming to be. He is the RPG villain. Just imagine all the dream matchups come true!

Like tears in the rain

Chance: 5%
This is pretty low, I know, but I've come to think that 2B's chances were inflated by the Smash community. She was always seen as parallel Joker, and I get it. Both from modern masterpieces of Japanese game development, released in 2017, from franchises with long histories that were still niche until their game broke out into the mainstream with massive sales. Both were even PS4 exclusive (for a while, at least). Automata even outsold Persona 5, so if Joker can get in, surely 2B is soon to follow, right?

Well, no, because while those are striking similarities, I think it's in the differences that the problem lies. The main one is that no NieR or Drakengard game ever made it on a Nintendo console. We've never had a character get in under those conditions. Given how every Square Enix series in contention (even Deus Ex!) satisfies that, I really don't think Nintendo will look at that. The other difference, that's pretty minor but isn't to be ignored, is that Persona 5 was a GOTY nominee, and Automata wasn't. It should've been, but it was snubbed for PUBG (that aged well). So Persona 5 has some additional prestige that Automata doesn't.

None of this is insurmountable, and I keep half-expecting a port of Automata to hit the Switch and make me feel much better about her prospects. But that's not it. We also know that Sakurai and NieR's creator Yoko Taro hadn't met until after the Pass was decided. That's a big no-no in my book. Could they have done all of the licensing without Yoko Taro being involved? Maybe, but I doubt it given how much personal authorship Taro has over his games and over 2B in particular. Giving her a low percentage just in case there were shenanigans, but it's clear that I don't think she's in.

Want: 90%
NieR Automata is a work of art and I'd really want to see it join the world of Smash. 2B would have a kick-ass moveset, really bringing that Platinum complexity. And also please, let us fight as Weight of the World plays. I need that.

Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Mimikyu prediction: 2.30%
Lycanroc: 1.85%
Meowth: 5.75%

 

[fogbadge]

He talks about it in this article.

Ok. I might have misremembered it a bit. Near the beginning of the article he talks about how there is always going to be regrets when it comes to development and not everything goes to plan. The regret part seems to just be in general sense, after all every developer has obstacles to deal with.

My statement may be a bit off. But Sakurai mentioned in this article that some series might feel underrepresented when it comes to music.

Basically, it's conjecture, admittedly. Sakurai never directly mentioned any specific regrets. But if you read the music article, he clearly has a level of passion for music. And with the other third party series getting so much music (Castlevania, Street Fighter and Mega Man in particular), FF really stands out in the music department. 2 songs is pitiful, especially coming from a game and series known for the music. So you have to imagine that Sakurai, on some level, does wish he could have gotten more FF music into the game. I'm not trying to put words into his mouth, but the fact that we don't even have songs like One Winged Angel in Smash is certainly something that the developers would have noticed.

well thats the thing if sakurai never said anything specific then for all we know this is the exact number of songs sakurai wants

 

[DanganZilla5]

well thats the thing if sakurai never said anything specific then for all we know this is the exact number of songs sakurai wants

Fair enough. But I think it would be better to say that Sakurai is ok with the music. Not to nitpick what you say, I do agree that Sakurai is perhaps fine with the content that FF has and will cut his losses. That is something I did bring up in my rating.

 

[Jomosensual]

Edit: Submitted to soon

****. Now I typed a ton and then navigated away. Guess edits dont get saved like drafts do. Don't feel like retyping it all out so I'm gonna double abstain

Predictions
Lycanroc - .11
Mimikyu - .45
Meowth - .35

Noms
Jin Sakai x3
John Marston x2

 

[Sari]

I'll abstain altogether since I'm really busy atm. All I'll say is I'd be down for 2B despite not having played her game yet (which is why I really want Automata to be ported to Switch).

-----

Chance predictions:
Mimikyu: 1.80%
Lycanroc: 4.00%
Meowth: 4.00%

Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Tracer/Diablo/Concept: Warcraft rep pre-Sephiroth/2B

Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x255
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x225
Tidus x215
Nate Adams x205
[Rerate] Ezio x190
Shuichi Saihara x181
Moogle x175

150 - 101

Alex Mason x145
[Rerate] Frisk x135
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x130
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x130
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x121
The Stretchers x120
D.Va x115
Red (Angry Birds) x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Billy Hatcher x110
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x110
Echo: Xion (Sora) x110
Sakura Shinguji x110
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x105

100 - 51

Klonoa x100
Proto Man x85
Concept: Deltarune content x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x75
Boss: Ender Dragon x73
The Terrarian x65
Concept: Rocket League rep x65
Hades (Kid Icarus) x65
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x62
Amiya (Arknights) x60
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x60
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x59
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x55
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x55
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x55

50 - 25

Giygas x50
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x50
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x50
Gooigi x50
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x50
Dr. Goomba Tower x45
Magolor x45
John Marston x42
Jin Sakai x41
Stage: Bowser's Castle x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
Ghirahim x35
Boss: Rayquaza x34
Concept: Returning stages x31
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
[Rerate] Monokuma x30
Yoshimitsu x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x25
Concept: Fortnite character x25

Under 25

Echo (Olimar) x21
Black Shadow x20
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x20
Lora and Jin x20
Concept: Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed x20
Chell x18
Zeraora x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Cynthia x15
Taranza x11
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Vi (Bug Fables) x10
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x10
Tetra x10
Demi-fiend x10
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x7
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Kass x1

Nate Adams captures over 200 noms.

Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep negotiates for over 100 noms.

Austin the Butler serves up over 50 noms and is saved from the purge. Concept: Boss Rush, which was already safe, also crosses the 50 nom mark.

Yoshimitsu cuts past 25 noms.

 

[SharkLord]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Tracer/Diablo/Concept: Warcraft rep pre-Sephiroth/2B

Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x255
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x225
Tidus x215
Nate Adams x205
[Rerate] Ezio x190
Shuichi Saihara x181
Moogle x175

150 - 101

Alex Mason x145
[Rerate] Frisk x135
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x130
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x130
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x121
The Stretchers x120
D.Va x115
Red (Angry Birds) x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Billy Hatcher x110
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x110
Echo: Xion (Sora) x110
Sakura Shinguji x110
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x105

100 - 51

Klonoa x100
Proto Man x85
Concept: Deltarune content x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x75
Boss: Ender Dragon x73
The Terrarian x65
Concept: Rocket League rep x65
Hades (Kid Icarus) x65
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x62
Amiya (Arknights) x60
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x60
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x59
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x55
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x55
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x55

50 - 25

Giygas x50
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x50
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x50
Gooigi x50
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x50
Dr. Goomba Tower x45
Magolor x45
John Marston x42
Jin Sakai x41
Stage: Bowser's Castle x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
Ghirahim x35
Boss: Rayquaza x34
Concept: Returning stages x31
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
[Rerate] Monokuma x30
Yoshimitsu x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x25
Concept: Fortnite character x25

Under 25

Echo (Olimar) x21
Black Shadow x20
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x20
Lora and Jin x20
Concept: Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed x20
Chell x18
Zeraora x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Cynthia x15
Taranza x11
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Vi (Bug Fables) x10
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x10
Tetra x10
Demi-fiend x10
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x7
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Kass x1

Nate Adams captures over 200 noms.

Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep negotiates for over 100 noms.

Austin the Butler serves up over 50 noms and is saved from the purge. Concept: Boss Rush, which was already safe, also crosses the 50 nom mark.

Yoshimitsu cuts past 25 noms.

Did my rating not make the cut? Because if I did meet the quota, I think my nomination might not have gone through.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't care about either.

Nominations: Dr. Goomba Tower x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Did my rating not make the cut? Because if I did meet the quota, I think my nomination might not have gone through.

You didn't reach the necessary amount of sentences, sorry.

 

[fogbadge]

Nate Adams captures over 200 noms.

ive done that all by myself?

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain, again.

Nominate content from currently unreleased game x5

Prediction 3% for whatever

 

[SharkLord]

You didn't reach the necessary amount of sentences, sorry.

Dangit. Do I at least keep the extra nominations from that round, or are those a one-round thing?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Dangit. Do I at least keep the extra nominations from that round, or are those a one-round thing?

Those were for that specific day.