Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[WaddleKing]

The one thing I'll disagree with. Even if these three were promotional picks, representing other Generations is important, especially in a series that's already bloated with blatant Gen 1 favoritism. Especially since Greninja was already popular long before Smash 4, and both it and Lucario had great placements in the Pokemon of the Year poll.

That said, back in the Smash 64 days it should've been Meowth who was the second Pokemon instead of Jigglypuff, especially given that Meowth has had continual relevance through the anime as a major character while Jigglypuff fell from prominence all together. Jigglypuff is only still here due to her being Original 12.

I think the difference between those save Lucario is that unlike all those, Meowth has actual multi generational relevancy (even beyond the anime such as in spin-offs and promotional materials), having held notable presence in pretty much all of them in a similar vein as Pikachu though to a lesser scale obviously, generation 6 is the one he likely held least relevancy in but even there he still held more than all those others (besides Lucario again) held outside their debut generations (and gen 2 too in Jigglypuff's case).
Making him feel less like a gen 1 only rep compared to Jigglypuff like you mentioned, and more in similar vein as Pikachu and Lucario in representing multiple parts of the series through multiple generations as they have remained evergreen.

Either way I'd say it's not even worth comparing them to begin with really.

 

[Calamitas]

. . .Okay, that Pokémon day ended sooner than I thought it would, so I'll still throw out my ratings and hope that I'm under the cut-off point.

Money Cat

Chance: 0%
While Meowth has received a minor push in the form of getting a Alolan form, a Galarian form, and a Gigantimax form, it's stil lfar from being in the spotlight. Past precedent for Pokémon newcomers is that it's always the ones from the latest generations that get picked, and I don't see that changing for this DLC period.

Want: 0%
I would've liked it for earlier Smash titles. But at this point, I'm simply so fed up with the general Generation 1 favouritism from all official channels that I don't want to see a new playable Generation 1 Pokémon ever again.

If it were an influencer, you could call it Lycansubscribe

Chance: 0%
Similar reasoning for Meowth. Generation 7 is over, and with it, the chances for Lycanroc.

Want: 20%
Which is a shame, because it is probably one of my favourite Pokémon from the Generation. I'm not sure which of its form I'd like the most for Smash, but I could see all three of them bringing interesting things to the table.

Pikachu ja nai, Mimikyu da yo!

Chance: 0%
Again, same chance reasoning as before. Generation 7 is done, and so are Mimikyu's chances.

Want: 15%
Another one I would have actually liked to see happen. But alas, we just had to have Incineroar, because wrestler.

Gonna skip out on predictions and nominations since the next day already started.

 

[SharkLord]

Lloyd Irving
Chance: 65%. Tales is an iconic action RPG, and one of Bamco's major pillars. It helps that Lloyd is a major request as well. There's a couple things stopping me from rating him higher. The first is his Mii Costume, which Heihachi has proved can come back at any time. The other is the fact that he has to contend with other Tales of candidates, namely Yuri and Velvet. Still, I think Lloyd is pretty likely out of them all. As for Bamco not feeling the need for another rep... Does it really matter? Nintendo is choosing the reps, and Sakurai at least seems to have some influence. It's up to them to choose, and I don't think Bamco would say no.
Want: 65%. Usually I'd be pretty neutral, given my lack of knowledge on the series, but Lloyd calls to me. He's got a cool design, he's got a unique dual-wielding style, and his combo-centric gameplay sounds right up my alley. I know jacksquat about Tales, but aside from that Lloyd checks all my boxes.
The Chosen Undead
Chance: 50%. Dark Souls is not to be slept on. This is the game that was so hard, it became the measuring stick of difficulty and created it's own subgenre of tough, but fair gameplay. It has global appeal as well, thanks to a mix of JRPG roots and Western aesthetics. A Dark Souls character has the possibility of being a darkhorse for the pass. The one major obstacle for CU themselves is the fact that Solaire seems to have become a bit of a mascot for the series, and he serves as a bit of competition for him.
Want: 55%. Again, I'd usually be pretty neutral due to knowing jacksquat, but they honestly seem pretty cool. We don't have any real full-body armor medieval knights in the roster yet, and a game with a more explicitly European flavor would stand out pretty well against the anime-inspired designs. I think they'd be pretty cool.
Kos-Mos
Chance: 10%. Probably not happening. Her main draw is that she's MonoSoft's mascot and the predecessor of Xenoblade, but if we're getting a Xeno rep Nintendo would probably go for Rex, or maybe Elma. Kos-Mos just doesn't have the profitability, recency, or fan demand to get ahead of Rex, much less every other candidate.
Want: 40%. Eh, I guess she could be cool. I don't think we've gotten cannons of her size yet (Assuming that is what she uses in Xenosaga; I only know of the canon from XC2), and it would be fun to blast the **** out of everyone. Still, she doesn't really grab me the way the others do.

Abstain of predictions, I don't feel like rating all seven at once.

Nomination: Klonoa x5 (Not a more fitting time for him, is there?)

 

[fogbadge]

abstain on all three i dont know much about any of them bar i really dont want lloyd to get in

nominate nate adams x5

Tomorrow is the Gen 8 Day. Predict Dragapult, Toxtricity, Urshifu, Melmetal, Cinderace, and Rillaboom. Also so no one complains even if it is the second worst starter of all time Intelleon is going into the mix as well. Predict all 7. Will also give out double noms for people who predict each one the best.

two things, 1: melmetal isnt really a gen 8 and 2: we're rating the worst ever starter so dont be so harsh on intelleon

 

[frozolloyd]

I'm interested to see if the thread lowers the chance of all of the Namco picks with the Heihachi costume or raises it. In my opinon, the costume says nothing on Namco as a wholes chances (keep in mind Megaman costumes were added as DLC before Ryu), and not having a costume revealed just means they are still in the running. Anyways, lets AGO.

The Darkest of Dark horses (Chosen Undead): Chance 40 percent
Out of all the character that are speculated, this is the character I feel gets slept on the hardest. Not only is Dark Souls one of the most influential series of the past 10 years, but it also is probably one of the most popular games in Bamco's library. Not to mention the series got an amiibo when the game was released on switch, which is extremely rare for a third party to get. Being blunt, this would be the pick to set the internet on fire, if there was one coming from Bandai Namco. The only problems I see are A. the series as a whole has never been that popular as a pick within the smash community B. the game on the switch has probably sold most of what it would sell, meaning it might not be high priority to Nintendo and C. while the game is really good, the actual moveset of the chosen undead might be a bit lacking, though I don't think this will matter in the end. Either way, if Tales of isn't the Namco rep, I would be willing to bet Dark Souls would be there pick.
Want: 40 percent
I have always respected the series, but I've never been a huge Dark Souls player. If they gets, I'll be happy and they definitely deserve it.

The result of making ambiguous statements, Vergeben (KOS MOS): Chance: 5 percent
Since this one always cause trouble in the thread (Lloyd and her are always rated on the same day, which is how I know), lets start with the positives. She has a very loyal fanbase, even if they aren't as big as the other Bamco reps fanbases, her moveset would be really cool and Monolith really, really likes her. Okay now lets go with the negatives. First, she doesn't hold a candle to Lloyd or most Bamco reps when it comes to popularity within the Smash fanbase. Unlike the Tales of series, Tekken, Digimon, Soul Caliber and Dark Souls, Xenosaga hasn't been relevant for over 10 years, with it being reduced to making small cameos in other more popular series. We know it doesn't have a game coming out soon, as the remaster was announced to not even leave early production, which is a big red flag if she was about to appear in Smash, a series famous for revitalizing older franchises. She also has the problem of competing with more well known and popular franchises within Bamco, due to Bamco not getting a character since early Smash 4. And everything I mentioned isn't usually extremely bad by themselves (there has been an exception to every factor I listed), the bigger problem is that she has all these factors going against her simultaneously and no big positive to offset them, unlike Megaman, Banjo and K rool. The final nail in the coffin for me is that it has been confirmed that Nintendo is choosing the DLC, meaning Monolith and Sakurai have no influence on who gets chosen. And when you looking at the Bamco reps from a Nintendo point of view, I find it hard to believe they would see her as their number one pick compared to her competition.
Want: 5 percent. Never have played her games, but I would vastly prefer any other Bamco rep.

The dufus in red (Lloyd Irving): Chance 60 percent
By my profile name, you can already tell my most wanted. But lets start simple. The Tales of series at this point is Namco's go to JRPG, it has been regularly been getting games on Nintendo up to the Wii U, and then was given another game on the switch. In fact, Nintendo systems have gotten a lot of exclusive Tales of games before, showing that their relationship has always been pretty good. It also is in the top 20 best selling Japanese franchises, gets a festival every normal year and regularly gets anime based on said games. I don't think it would be controversial to say that Tales of has long earned its spot if it were to get into Smash.
Now on to specifically Lloyd. The game he comes from, Tales of Symphonia, has always been a game heavily related with Nintendo. His first game was released on the Gamecube and sold 1.1 million on the Gamecube alone, which was insane numbers from an install base of 20 million as a JRPG. His game was so successful it got a sequel on the Wii that was an actual Nintendo exclusive game. Currently, Tales of Symphonia is still the best selling Tales of game of all time, as well as the most sold Tales of game in the West by FAR. Its remaster also was released on Steam in 2016, so it isn't exactly like he hasn't been around all this time. He also has always been the most popular Bamco rep in the smash community, tied with Heihachi. And with Heihachi now gone, that means he is a shoe in for the Bamco slot, right? Well there lies the problem. While I believe Tales of as a series is very likely, he also has to compete with Yuri from Tales of Vesperia, who has other assets Lloyd doesn't. Meaning, I could see Nintendo choosing either one realistically. There is also the chance, as others have mentioned, Bamco gets nothing yet again and all we Tales of fans get is a mii costume. We will have to wait and see.
Want: 100 percent. His playstyle has ALWAYS been my favorite playstyle of the protagonist and he comes from a game I have a ton of nostalgia for. If he actually was added and there were no leaks ahead of time, I probably would cry during his reveal trailer.

 

[Blankiturayman]

Lloyd Irving
Chance: 55%
When it comes to Namco characters, I'm sure this one is at the top. Lloyd has been a popular pick for a while, he's appeared in fangames and whatnot even for a long while, and it goes without saying that Symphonia is one of the most known Tales games (western-wise, at least). This even got him a costume back in 4, where Sakurai cited that if they were to go for Tales, they'd probably go for him. The question now is, whether that remained over time, and whether Nintendo found it right to add a Tales character. I think that if they did, it'd make sense. Sure, Tales might not be the biggest RPG series, but when juggernauts like FF and DQ are already in the game, you start getting into ones that don't need to be at legendary levels like this one. Of course, given Heihachi's mii was missing then came back, there's no reason Lloyd's wouldn't do the same, or that they picked another Namco character, or even another Tales character (could be Yuri). Time will tell, but I think Lloyd's in a good spot at the moment.
Want: 60%
I like this guy, his moveset could be really fun from what I've seen, love most of the Tales music that I've heard, overall I'd be pretty happy with him. If another Tales character made it I wouldn't mind either. A character from this series overall would be very nice.

KOS-MOS
Chance: 10%
This is the highest I can give her, I'm even sure some would call this too high. Xenosaga hasn't been around in a while, not even rereleases or anything of the sort, there's a somewhat small vouch for it, but Harada recently attempted a "market appeal" and it didn't go well enough for remasters, making it seem very unlikely they'd get them any soon. KOS-MOS also not only has to contend with characters in her own company (Lloyd above, Dark Souls, would have added Tekken before Heihachi here, maybe even Klonoa.) but with other characters in the "Xeno" subseries of games, namely bigger and more recent requests like Elma, Rex, or even another character from XC1 (who I'd be all fine with, personally). The only way I could see her being chosen, is by Monolith. It's clear they still see her as an important character to them (she was even front in their anniversary poster) and keeps making cameos whenever she can. But this would take a very, very, slim chance that they'd go to Monolith, ask for a general Xeno rep, and they give KOS-MOS. There's even the chance they don't and go for Rex for recency or somesuch. But oh well, I can dream...
Want: 100%
Which is why it's a shame to me she's not likely at all. I really liked Xenosaga. She's got loads of moves and weaponry that'd make her fun, and I think she'd make perfect contrast with Shulk as a second character for the overarching Xeno series, not to mention how Monolith still values her. But it is what it is, I'd be satisfied with any kind of appareance from the overall Xeno series at this point (which is why I'm glad Shulk himself made it back in 4). At least she's not as unlikely as Fei.

Chosen Undead
Chance: 35%
It goes without saying that Dark Souls became a huge hit. This alone could make it likely for a character from this game to make it, and it'd make sense that they'd go with the main character first. I've seen other suggestions, Solaire, Artorias, but let's be honest, when have they not gone with a main player character first? Even Min Min had the "actually, all ARMS characters are protagonists!" narrative. I think if they were to go with a character from this series, which seems likely given how it's already on Nintendo and done extremely well all-around, plus catches a demographic that might not be on the game yet, Chosen Undead would be first in line. That being said, I'm not entirely sure they would. There could be other choices from Namco they could go with first, especially since this character is more FromSoft than Namco. It just so happens to be owned by them.
Want: 30%
From what I've seen, would be nice, but admittedly I don't have much attachment to Dark Souls. I'd be okay with a character from this series, I like the look, and I think they're more than deserving of being in the game. But still, not feeling THAT much on it, to go and support fully or such. At the very least I'm sure they'd be fun to play.

Nominations: Proto Man x5

Abstaining on predictions this time.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

JRPG spikey boi
Chance: 33%
Tales of is a huge franchise and probably the next rpg rep in line and definitely the most likely from Namco. Things have been looking better than ever for Lloyd with Heihachi deconfirmed and Lloyd's own Smash 4 costume absent. I'm still a bit hesitant on him cause we can just as easily have his costume return later on and still not get a second Namco rep after all this time. Or they'll potentially pick some other Tales protagonist over him. He's the most demanded put probably not the most popular or relevant overall. I know Sakurai would pick but I'm not 100% sure Nintendo would. Still calling him the most likely from his franchise tho.

Want: 5%
I saw a copy of the game at my local game store which I may consider but currently Lloyd as a character doesn't do much for me.
I'd be happy for his fans but I'd gladly take other Namco characters like Nightmare or the Prince over another JRPG protag.

Dank Souls
Chance: 25%
Dark Souls has become iconic and borderline mainstream in the west and would kinda bring in a new audience being wrpg fans and fans of soulslike games in general. It has made its Nintendo debut not long ago and even has an Amiibo, one of the few third party games to have those. However, it has been over a year since the Switch release and the other games aren't yet confirmed to come to my knowledge. Also, I think the world of Dark Souls may be considered a bit too...dark for it to be represented with a challenger pack. Just seems like a franchise Nintendo would be hesitant to go for. The Tales series is still more likely imo. Honestly, my gut feels like we're getting a Solaire costume and they'll leave it at that.

Want: 7.5%
I would like to try out Dark Souls sometime soon but the Chosen undead seems like an avatar sorta character and I don't really know how to feel about those. Has to do with the character in Smash potentially not matching your build from the game. Dark Souls also may or may not compete with Hollow Knight for a spot due to sharing the similar dark and moody aesthetic.

Kokomo
Chance: 0.1%
Her series is confirmed to have no future by people at Namco due to how unprofitable it is. Nintendo would have to know that as well, so picking KOS-MOS over other viable Namco characters wouldn't make any sense buisness wise. Her XB2 appearance also doesn't help at all when we don't even have the main characters of that game playable.

Want: 0%
Not interested. Don't really see myself looking for Xenosaga anytime soon. Almost every other Namco pick has a better excuse being in. There are many better choices for third-parties in general.

Dragapult: 7.43%
Toxtricity: 21.87%
Urshifu: 19.96%
Melmetal: 1.44%
Rilaboom: 12.84%
Cinderace: 26.48%
Inteleon: 9.35%
Deltarune content x5

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain
Nominations: Shuichi Saihara x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

If he's twice the swordfighter, is that better or worse for Smash fans?

Chance: 50%
Lloyd is by this point the obvious and absolute frontrunner for Bandai Namco, to the point where I'm confident in saying that he either gets in as a fighter or back as a Mii Costume and Bamco gets nothing. Heihachi proves that nobody's safe, and Bandai Namco forgetting they even have a character in Smash doesn't exactly bode well. But, really, any other character from the company is the underdog at best. Tales is one of the biggest JRPG series, especially in Japan, and we always get RPG characters. In comparison, Katamari and Soul Calibur are smaller series, and the other two we're rating today, well, see below. Much has been said about how we could potentially get another Tales character. I don't think so. Recently, the discourse has been turned into "Lloyd is Smash popular and Yuri is Tales popular", and that's just forgetting all the other things Lloyd has in his favor. He isn't just the one most popular with Smash fans, but with the overall mainstream audience; Symphonia is still the best selling game in the franchise. From the other JRPG protags we got in Smash, it's always the one from the best selling game - which, yeah, makes sense, as that's usually the one that has the biggest mainstream appeal. Lloyd also has the advantage of being seen as a Nintendo character, which led to years of support, probably a great placement in the Ballot, and eventually his Mii Costume and Sakurai's comment of "who else but Lloyd?". So, that's why I think Lloyd curbstomps Yuri in the chance department. Aside from him, Velvet's tenure as "the newest" is almost up, and I don't see Nintendo promoting Tales of Arise when it's not coming to Switch.

Want: 90%
Symphonia's a classic, and really that's all I need to support Lloyd. Every time we rate him reminds me of how I want to boot it up one more time, someday I surely will.

Roll forward, stab, stab, roll sideways, stab, roll backward, roll forward, stab, stab...

Chance: 5%
Dark Souls' success and influence in the gaming world is not to be understated, but I think it's like Monster Hunter where a fighter is just not the best way to represent it. Gameplay in Dark Souls is slow and choppy and full of hitstun, where you bide your time because any mistake could mean the end of you. That translates really poorly to Smash, and if you take that out you just have a generic dude in armor with a sword, hardly that compelling. I think a stage, a boss, or even a Mii Costume is the way they'd go for this series.

Want: 10%
Like I said, I think it'd be a bad call, though I'm not against the series getting a fighter as it more than deserves it. But I'd just prefer to get a fighter from one of the many other series that also deserves one, plus has moveset potential. If the moveset's good I'd change my tune.

Her chances are like a speck of dust in the cosmos

Double zeroes. This is usually the part where I'd counter common arguments in her favor but I've yet to see any. She's just a character from a hoax that caught on because "Sakurai always surprises us". Xenosaga is a failed series, had no impact, got no accolades, and sadly barely even got a cult following. It's not coming back anytime soon, we have confirmation of that. What reason would there be for KOS-MOS to be in Smash? From Nintendo's perspective, from Sakurai's perspective, from the consumer's perspective, there's none. She'd be lucky to get a Mii Costume, though I dunno if I'd want that because that'd probably vindicate her fanbase.

Noms: ****ing Tidus x5 ( TCT~Phantom are we still doing the 10 noms thing?)

Predictions
Toxtricity 12.34%
Urshifu 11.43%
Melmetal 1.71%
Rillaboom 16.11%
Cinderace 26.63%
Intelleon 12.41%
Dragapult 10.08%

 

[TCT~Phantom]

GoodGrief741 not today, tomorrow tho for sure.

 

[BowserKing]

KOS-MOS

Chance: 10%. Her chance has not changed really much, so not much to discuss. However, her chance could increase in the future, but who knows.

Want: 50%. I don’t know too much about Xenosaga, but she would be fun to play as. Overall, she would be a surprising choice for a Smash Bros rep.

UnDead

Chance: 10%. His chance has not really changed much, so his chance is a slight one. Again his chance could increase in the future however.

Want: 50%. He would be a fun character to play as on the other hand. He could also be a fun Mii Costume. Overall, he would be a surprising choice for a Smash Bros Rep.

Lloyd

Chance: 25%. Of all the NAMCO characteres, he is one of the most likely to get in, since Heihachi became a Mii Costume. Things appear to look bright for him in Smash.

Want: 55%. I prefer it if Kloana would be the next NAMCO Rep, but Lloyd would be fun to play as. I can see him fight Ike and Pac-Man in a fight. Overall, Lloyd would be a fun choice for Smash bros.

Prediction: Rillaboom, Cinderace and Intelleon (25%), Melmetal (15%), Urshifu (15%) and Dragapult and Toxtricity (20%)

Noms: 5 for Echo: Olimar

 

[DanganZilla5]

Villager's side special

Chance: 60%

Lloyd is Bamco's frontrunner. Hands down. Tales Of is popular in Japan, has a following in the West, and is a successful long-running JRPG series which the Japanese market seems to really love (to the point where 3 of the 5 characters in the first pass were from that genre). Lloyd himself is also highly requested and Sakurai himself said that Lloyd would be the best rep for the series. He could have changed his mind, but considering that Symphonia to my knowledge is still the best selling and one of the more iconic games in the series, I would put all my money into Lloyd being the Tales rep.

My biggest concern is that we could easily get his Mii costume back though. It's very well possible, considering that Heihachi is a popular and requested character, yet he got his Mii costume back so suddenly so no one is safe. I'm also questioning if we will actually get another Bamco character since they seem to be chilling back in that regard. Still, I think Lloyd is one of our frontrunners in general. Though I will say that other Bamco franchises do have good reasons to be in Smash as well so I don't think it's Lloyd or bust.

Want: 55%

I still haven't played any of the Tales Of games and I'm still not a big fan of Lloyd. With that said, I have been warming up to him. He would be a big deal and we don't have a dual sword wielder in Smash so he would be unique. I still want Agumon, Nightmare and Klonoa more though.

____________________

Pauline is the Dark Souls of Smash

Chance: 20%

I think Dark Souls is underrated in Smash speculation. The series is iconic and mainstream, especially in the West and has seen some success in Japan. It is so well known that it has become the gold standard of difficulty, at least according to certain journalists that compare it to unrelated series like Crash, funnily enough. I agree that Chosen Undead would be difficult to implement in Smash, though it is possible. He would just be more of a defensive character who has to find holes in the enemy's playstyle. It could work, especially if they add spells to mix up the moveset.

One thing I have to ask though. Some people say that Solaire might be chosen as the playable character. Why? He might be more recognizable and got an Amiibo, sure, but he has even less moveset potential than Chosen Undead, who is the playable character. Why would they go with Solaire instead of Chosen Undead?

Overall, I think Chosen Undead has a good shot. The biggest hits toward him is that Dark Souls has limited Nintendo connections with just one game on the Switch and Bamco is filled to the brim with popular characters whose franchises have more Nintendo history. But Dark Souls has enough influence in the industry to warrant getting a character.

Want: 30%

I've tried Dark Souls but I'm just too much of a noob to not get recked and be able to get far into it. With that said, the atmosphere is up my alley. I'm a big fan of horror as I've stated many times so I'm giving this score mostly for the stage and some of the music is really good too. Chosen Undead does have some moveset potential, though I can't see him being super unique. And once again there are other Bamco characters I want more.

_______________

KOS-MOS

Chance: 0.01%

This is the very definition of a character who only got the spotlight thanks to fake rumors and situational evidence. She has no reason to be in Smash. Bamco straight up shot down a HD collection because they didn't think it was going to be profitable. As of now, Xenosaga has no future and when you also take into consideration all the series that Bamco has, KOS-MOS' chances drop like fox in Melee. Why would Bandai Namco choose her when they have Tales Of, Digimon, Soul Calibur, and Dark Souls? Her series isn't exactly well known either and while she has a cult fanbase, it's not nearly enough to negate all her negatives.

Want: 0.10%

Just because a character has a cool design and moveset potential does not mean I want them in. KOS-MOS does not interest me. I feel like I might be a bit too harsh on her, but that's because there are only 5 more chances of my favorites getting in and when it comes to cult characters, I would need to have really enjoyed their games to support them. Xenosaga is not part of this category for me and I would not be upset at all if KOS-MOS doesn't make it. It would not be so bad if I did not have several horses in the Bamco race, but I do.

Predictions:
The Gen 8 starters - 15% for all 3
Urshifu - 30%
Dragapult - 6%
Melmetal - 1%
Toxtricity - 13%

Noms: Ezio x5

 

[I.D.]

Came here as per SharkLord's invitation.

Kosmos Obey Strategical Multiple Operation System

Chance: 50%

Yep. If for whatever reason Rex and friends aren't coming from Monolith she's next in line, and I'm pretty confident in a Monolith character coming at least. I mean it's so obvious that those guys love her, how many characters do you know that are kept alive long after their series has ended? Reading interviews, articles, official material, etc, it becomes apparent they see her as a sort of symbol for their studio as a whole more so than any other character. It's not that hard to envision getting a character that is meant to rep Monolith's history, rather than a specific individual game. Kosmos is my personal dark horse bet of this pass.

"But who cares what Monolith thinks?" Well, we literally just got a character chosen simply because the developer of her game wanted her over any others, obviously not the same situation but it goes to show that developers have a considerable amount of sway, at least quite a bit more than what was previously thought anyway.

"But why would we get a character for Monolith in general rather than a specific game?" Not unprecedented, we got the SNK mascot almost a year ago who is blatantly representing SNK as a whole and not Fatal Fury (seriously how much content of Terry's pack is from Fatal Fury, 20% at most?). As for why, well, Monolith has quickly become Nintendo's biggest subsidiary during the past decade and even outside of Xenoblade they assist in the development of a lot of big Nintendo first party titles. Splatoon? Yep. Animal Crossing? You got it. Their biggest success story in this area however is without a doubt Breath of the Wild, according to interviews 50% of the development team for that game was composed of Monolith staff and that game went on to sell almost 20 million copies, demolishing every previous Zelda entry, making it surpass Mario for the first time and now Nintendo is having them work once again on its direct sequel. Pretty good resume!

"But why would Namco allow it?" Why not? They've already allowed them to do whatever they want with her even after being bought by Nintendo. Why would it be a problem here? And judging from Sakurai's comments in Terry's presentation it doesn't even seem they care that much about their representation. I think people focus too much on Namco in general (and also that Nintendo cares about "fair" representation between third parties or something), just look at the characters she's paired with here. The reality is nobody wants Kosmos for Namco. They want her for Monolith. Over a decade later there's almost no overlap left between Namco fans and Monolith fans, and there shouldn't be. Trying to group them together just creates pointless animosity between the two groups.

"But Harada said..." If you are familiar with Harada you know that the man has an obvious disdain for the Nintendo Switch, not unlike a few other Japanese third party developers. Whatever market analysis is telling him that a simple, cheap collection of ps2 ports wouldn't be profitable is the same market analysis that is telling him not to port any of his other games to the Switch. As Monolith keeps growing and becoming more successful so does interest in them, and Monolith existed before being bought by Nintendo, as much as some people want to pretend that they didn't.

And that's pretty much my case I guess.


Want: 90%

While the crazy weeks of December 2019 led to a lot of anger and frustration, I got something positive out of it: it got me to finally revisit the Xenosaga games (originally I only played the first one, almost 15 years ago) and it made me realize just how much Xenoblade inherits from them, and why these games were so important for this studio. From the superficial similarities, to the shared themes, to even certain gameplay elements (Xenosaga 2 essentially having a turn based prototype of Xenoblade 2's break -> topple -> launch -> smash combo system), funnily enough it also made me realize that Future Connected contained more throwbacks to Xenosaga than any of the other two other Xenoblade games, meaning Monolith themselves aren't willing to forget anytime soon either. Takahashi truly wasn't exaggerating when he said Xenoblade wouldn't exist without their experience from Xenosaga. It just made me appreciate the story of this originally small team of disgruntled ex-Square employees so much more. It's a story that is just as important as post-Nintendo Monolith and that I feel deserves to be represented. And why not represent it with a battle android with a crazy arsenal of nanomachine weapons.

Finally I have something else to say... I know having to deal with crazed, super gullible fans is frustrating but the level of anger displayed here over half a year later is almost comical. You'd think a place that has to deal with the Geno fanbase on a daily basis would have more tolerance for this type of stuff. I mean, wishing she doesn't get a mii costume because that would be "vindicating" her fans? How petty can you be LMAO

Oh, abstaining from the other two

 

[Jomosensual]

Nothing has changed for Lloyd and KOS MOS so I'll repost what I had on them last time

KOS MOS

Chance 1 - So, we're all in agreement that leaks mostly carried this right? Not that there isn't some stuff that helped her case which I'll get to in a minute, but nobody would have found her likely if literally every single leak between Terry's release and the VGAs didn't have her on it. Was a pretty damn extreme case of leaks piggybacking off each other so badly that it blew everything up. Now, for the positives on her. KOS MOS has a lot of Xenoblade connections, which is probably why she was in the leaks to begin with. And since Sakurai wanted Rex but couldn't get him in I suppose KOS MOS wouldn't have been a bad compromise for that. Now, other than the leaks all being dead, I think there's one major thing that's a complete killer here for KOS MOS, and it's that a Xenosaga remaster was planned but canceled because they thought it wouldn't make enough money. That doesn't feel like something you do if your character is going to be in Smash, especially if they're lesser known like KOS MOS. If I didn't know that I'd go about 10 percent, but with that out there I really don't think she's coming and will live on with Steve as characters people thought were locks who's invite never made it to them.

Want 40 - KOS MOS seemed like an interesting character for moveset potential. I probably would have given her a shot if he was DLC. There's others I'd rather get though and I don't really have a connection to the character.

Lloyd now

Lloyd

Chance 50 - One of the more likely characters right now. Namco still has nobody since Pac-Man and with 11 spots for DLC, Namco getting 0 just feels weird. Out of all the Namco reps Lloyd makes the most sense too. Heihachi was giving Sakurai some issues with trying to convert a 3D fighting game to 2D, Agumon is more known for the anime by a bit, Nightmare's series isn't pushed as hard as others, and KOS MOS was mostly just a product of leaks. The Mii Costume is also still gone along with the rest of the Namco ones, which could mean something from them is coming soon.

Want 50 - Seems like a baseline inoffensive pick for me. Not the most interesting character but is fairly well known and from a series that's somewhat popular. Wouldn't go crazy over his inclusion but I don't I'd take issue with it either. Think I'd rather get Agumon for the Pokemon vs. Digimon fights that 10 year old me would have gone ape**** for.

And I'll abstain from Chosen Undead because I don't feel like typing something for him

Predictions
Rillaboom - 15.76
Intellion - 2.45
Cinderace - 12.46
Melmetal - .45
Dragapult - 20
Toxtricity - 17

Noms
Jin Sakai x3
John Marston x2

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Wise fwom youw Gwave.

Abstain. That's it, i just wanted to make this joke.

Next.

Villager's Side B.

Chance: 60%

Yeah, this is one of the most likely Third Parties for this Pass. For one, Namco hasn't gotten another character in Smash yet. It doesn't make it likelier (because you would think they would have gotten another one by now) but seeing how other companies have gotten more content since Smash 4, namely Capcom and Sega, it's not impossible to think Namco and Nintendo might show interest in bringing more content, but which content? from which franchise?

Tekken could have easily been that franchise. It's one of the most well known and best selling fighting game IPs, and Heihachi was considered for Smash 4 but didn't make it in the end, so one would think this would be the obvious choice.........and yet, it's once again a Mii Costume like in the previous game. So what's left? Well, in my personal opinion, the most likely (and only likely) choice to actually be the Namco newcomer is Tales of Symphonia's main hero: Lloyd Irving.

Tales is one of the the biggest JRPG franchises in the world of gaming. It's probably the most popular Action RPG series next to Kingdom Hearts (there's also YS, but that franchise is far more nicher in comparison) beign composed of over 15 "mothership" titles (Phantasia, Destiny, Symphonia, Abyss, etc) 11 "escort" titles, 5 spin-off titles, 5 animated adaptations, etc etc etc. It's fair to say this franchise while not mega mainstream, it's popular and successful enough to be worthy of a spot in Smash Bros when compared to similar Third Party franchises. It also has a connection to Nintendo systems, since its first title: Tales of Phantasia, released on the Super Nintendo and later in the GBA worldwide. I could argue Tales managed to find it's footing in the West way before the likes of Dragon Quest did.

Now, that speaks well of the Tales franchise, but not exactly of Lloyd. Why him? Tales, Like Final Fantasy, is a franchise that features (usually) individual self-contained stories featuring its own rotating cast of Characters that changes each title, and Lloyd hasn't starred in a "mothership" title for years, so him and not the most recent one?

Well, first of, Tales of Symphonia (Lloyd's game) is the game that is attributed to the franchise managing to get an audience in the west, one of the reasons Nintendo fans have a certain overlap with Tales fans since the game was released on the Nintendo Gamecube worldwide (which made it stand out a lot more than it's PS2 counterpart which only released in Japan) and is without a dobut to this day, one of the most fondly remembered games in the series, especially in the west, and it helps it's the best selling game so far (over 3 million copies). It also helps he has appeared in a lot of other games outisde of his Mothership title, like Soul Calibur Legends, the spin off games like Tales of Fandom Vol. 2, Tales of Link, Tales of VS. etc, etc, etc. The impact this game left can be seen in Lloyd's popularity.

While he is not the most popular Tales character or even Hero (that honor goes to Yuri Lowell) but when it comes to Smash, Lloyd is THE most requested character from Tales to enter Smash. For comparison, Alucard from Castlevania is the most popular character, but nobody requested him for Smash...........well vocal requests for CV characters were actually uncommon, but when it happened, it was ALWAYS, ALWAYS the original Barbarian Vampire Hunter: Simon Belmont (Who by the way, has had far more appereances and crossovers than Alucard ever had) and guess who got in Smash.

I can easily see the same happening for Lloyd. The likes of Yuri may be more familiar to the Tales Fanbase, but a lot of people have shown far more interest in Lloyd joining Smash. Just look at how much fanwork ideas are there for Lloyd's potential debut, and his requests seem to have been notable enough for him to have gotten a Mii Costume back in Smash 4............which is suspiciously missing. Everybody talks about Geno but i reckon Lloyd's costume absence is just as mysterious and interesing, if not more.

Now you may say "BUT PHOENIX, HEIHACHI WAS A COSTUME IN SMASH 4 AND YET IT CAME BACK IN ULTIMATE DESPITE BEIGN ABSENT FOR OVER A YEAR SINCE THE GAME'S RELEASE". True, true, but that's in my opinion the main difference between Heihachi and Lloyd: One was extremely hard to make a moveset out of, in the words of Sakurai himself. Could he have done it? Sure, if he tried hard enough. After all he made a moveset for Ridley, Falcon, and a ****ing Plant.

But what makes Lloyd special is well..................it's literally very easy to translate his moveset into Smash. Have you played Smash? imagine it having less aerial moves, RPG elements like stats and focusing on stamina by default, and having a plethora of custom moves..............congrats! You just played TALES!

Okay that's a little exxagerated, but it's still true. The Tales series has 2 main attack buttons: The normal one which uses basic attacks (which easily could be used for Jabs, Titles, etc for Smash) and a "special" which uses abilities called Artes, which can be customized to the Player's content similar to the Mii's Costume moves. This makes Lloyd an extremely easy to implement into Smash, as much as Mega Man, Simon, and Banjo.

Compare that to Heihachi who could have a moveset, but Sakurai likely wanted that moveset to be faithful to Tekken's mechanics, this is an issue that's non-existent for Lloyd. Yeah he's a sword user, but at the very least he's a dual wielder, which makes him stand out enough. Not every character must bring a super gimmick to make themselves special, and Lloyd's faithful moveset honestly is specail enough on his own.

A Main character from a really popular game that is one of the most beloved entries in a long running best selling franchise (and it's among the best selling too!) that has a presence worldwide and on Nintendo platforms, is requested in Smash circles enough to have been thrown a bone, and his moveset is so easy to make it's almost like blueprints for a Smash moveset.

Yeah, this is THE Namco rep in my eyes. Finally somone who can catch up to Ryu Hayabusa in chance in my score.

Want: 25%

Yeah.........too bad i haven't played Symphonia yet. I played Vesperia and i can say this series could be right on my alley, but i don't have a way to play it. Rest assuered, should TOS ever enter my hands, my want score will likely be far higer.

Cosmos from the Fairly Odd Franchise.

Chance: 1%

Yeah im on "It's Lloyd or no one" camp here. Xenosaga is part of the "Xeno" META series, as in it has similar ideas to Xenogears and Xenoblade (which is in Smash) But that's it.......

The franchise, in the words of Namco, was a financial dissapointement and hasn't gotten a new entry since 2006, with no plans of continuing it foward. Yeah, Kos-Mos appears in Namco crossovers, but that doesn't mean anything. Morrigan appears in Most VS games, but her series is SUPER dead, and i don't see her making it over Dante and/or Phoenix Wright.

Terry's franchise, Fatal Fury, hasn't gotten a new game since 98, but he lives on as a legacy character, he is the symbol of how far SNK has come along and his perfect attendance in KOF is proof of that, it helps that is Terry is among THE most popular SNK characters alongside KOF icons like Kyo Kusanagi and Iori Yagami, so he's a top dog in SNK circles. Banjo hasn't gotten a new game since '08, but Banjo Kazooie in its heyday was FAR more iconic, popular and talked about than Xenosaga has been in its entire life, the BK series is seen as the most iconic franchise of Rare (one of the most fondly remembered developers of the 90's) in the eyes of many, and it's popularity among the Smash fanbase EXPLODED into the heavens the second Phil Spencer said a word. Kos-Mos? Can barely remember some people talking about her at all. Not in Smash 4 days, not in Base game days, and certainly not nowadays.

There's almost no major interest in having this character in Smash like Banjo (meaning she is not popular among Smash/Nintendo-centric circles), nor is this character a top dog among the compnay like Terry Bogard (meaning she is not popular among outsider/non-Nintendo) circles. This wouldn't be such an issue if Xenosaga was decently successful and was still going, but for a franchise that has been dead around the time Third Party talk in Smash became popular (Snake was announced at E3 '06) and only lives by cameos of Namco games that only really, really, REALLY hardcore gamers care about..........yeah, not a chance at all. Especially with all the competition from outside (Nintendo characters now on the table, Third Parties like Crash and Steve) and even inside (if Heihachi couldn't even make it, i don't see any reason or circumstance would she could, espcially when Lloyd is pretty much the obvious choice in every single step)

and no, the Xenoblade 2 cameo means nothing to me. I see her as Spirit fodder at best.

Want: 0%
and thank Venus for that, because i really did not want Kos-Mos. I still remember when everybody though Kos-Mos was this super likely character for Fighter Pass 1 to end with.........and then we got Byleth instead. This is the ONE time im happy Byleth got in, no irony here.

Im not a fan of Creator's Pets, and Kos-Mos gives me vibes of this. Despite the franchise beign dead, they still keep pushing this character over and over as if it was this super iconic mascot, and while im happy to see lesser known characters get the spotlight sometimes, it's getting really tired with this one.

Doesn't help im not a fan of her character archetype at all, and her moveset doesn't appeal to me in the slightlest. Next

Noms:
Vi (Bug Fables) X5

 

[Lyncario]

Wise fwom youw Gwave.

Abstain. That's it, i just wanted to make this joke.

Next.

You get mad respect from me for doing that.

 

[GoodGrief741]

If for whatever reason Rex and friends aren't coming from Monolith she's next in line, and I'm pretty confident in a Monolith character coming at least. I mean it's so obvious that those guys love her, how many characters do you know that are kept alive long after their series has ended? Reading interviews, articles, official material, etc, it becomes apparent they see her as a sort of symbol for their studio as a whole more so than any other character.

The guys at Monolith sure do love her, but they aren't picking characters.

It's not that hard to envision getting a character that is meant to rep Monolith's history

It's not? Why would we get one? Doesn't sound like something Nintendo would do.

"But who cares what Monolith thinks?" Well, we literally just got a character chosen simply because the developer of her game wanted her over any others, obviously not the same situation but it goes to show that developers have a considerable amount of sway, at least quite a bit more than what was previously thought anyway.

The ARMS devs didn't decide there would be an ARMS character, Nintendo did. All we know is that Sakurai asked for Yabuki's input on who it was. And that's not precedent for Nintendo telling Sakurai to get a rep from a specific company or developer, only a series.

"But why would we get a character for Monolith in general rather than a specific game?" Not unprecedented, we got the SNK mascot almost a year ago who is blatantly representing SNK as a whole and not Fatal Fury (seriously how much content of Terry's pack is from Fatal Fury, 20% at most?).

The grand majority of SNK's franchises all share a universe. Notably, the one that doesn't, Metal Slug, got a minimum amount of content despite being arguably the best known of them all.

As for why, well, Monolith has quickly become Nintendo's biggest subsidiary during the past decade and even outside of Xenoblade they assist in the development of a lot of big Nintendo first party titles. Splatoon? Yep. Animal Crossing? You got it. Their biggest success story in this area however is without a doubt Breath of the Wild, according to interviews 50% of the development team for that game was composed of Monolith staff and that game went on to sell almost 20 million copies, demolishing every previous Zelda entry, making it surpass Mario for the first time and now Nintendo is having them work once again on its direct sequel. Pretty good resume!

Being a good and prolific subsidiary in no way means they're going to get a rep just for that. We don't see characters added because they're "the EPD rep" or "the Retro rep" or "the Intelligent Systems rep", we get characters because of the characters themselves.

"But Harada said..." If you are familiar with Harada you know that the man has an obvious disdain for the Nintendo Switch, not unlike a few other Japanese third party developers. Whatever market analysis is telling him that a simple, cheap collection of ps2 ports wouldn't be profitable is the same market analysis that is telling him not to port any of his other games to the Switch.

Occam's Razor, what's likelier? That Namco lets a guy make poor business decisions because of some grudge or that market analysis determined that there isn't an audience for a series of games that already failed to find one?

Hell, even if it's wrong, the fact remains that Namco went public with a market analysis that says "KOS-MOS + Switch = no money". Why would Nintendo take a gamble and make her a fighter you need to pay for?

As Monolith keeps growing and becoming more successful so does interest in them, and Monolith existed before being bought by Nintendo, as much as some people want to pretend that they didn't.

Sadly, as great as it'd be if people were aware of the developers behind the games they love, they're just gonna connect the games to Nintendo (the most famous name attached to them). I don't think Monolith's name is getting any more famous than it already is.

(Post with noms and calcs coming up)

 

[I.D.]

The guys at Monolith sure do love her, but they aren't picking characters.

I am well aware.

It's not? Why would we get one? Doesn't sound like something Nintendo would do.

I didn't say we would or should get one. Just that it wouldn't be surprising as something similar has already happened.

The ARMS devs didn't decide there would be an ARMS character, Nintendo did. All we know is that Sakurai asked for Yabuki's input on who it was. And that's not precedent for Nintendo telling Sakurai to get a rep from a specific company or developer, only a series.

As you said, all we know is that Sakurai listened to Yabuki. You and I don't know whether the Nintendo shadow council decided on their own that they would "promote" ARMS, a game already out of print, 3 years later with no external interference or if the ARMS devs made some sort of request.

The grand majority of SNK's franchises all share a universe. Notably, the one that doesn't, Metal Slug, got a minimum amount of content despite being arguably the best known of them all.

And it still got content. And it still wouldn't change the fact that most of the content isn't from Fatal Fury, a distinct series. Also not the greatest argument considering Kosmos makes a playable appearance in Xenoblade.

Being a good and prolific subsidiary in no way means they're going to get a rep just for that. We don't see characters added because they're "the EPD rep" or "the Retro rep" or "the Intelligent Systems rep", we get characters because of the characters themselves.

Nothing in this universe guarantees a spot in Smash other than being the avatar character of the latest Fire Emblem game, but that doesn't mean it doesn't help.

Occam's Razor, what's likelier? That Namco lets a guy make poor business decisions because of some grudge or that market analysis determined that there isn't an audience for a series of games that already failed to find one?

Your Occam's Razor can be used to argue the opposite: what's likelier? Harada being biased or all the market analyses of games related to him genuinely failing when it comes to Switch? (That's not even getting into countless other instances of individual Japanese developers ignoring Nintendo systems against common sense)

Hell, even if it's wrong, the fact remains that Namco went public with a market analysis that says "KOS-MOS + Switch = no money". Why would Nintendo take a gamble and make her a fighter you need to pay for?

Namco didn't go public with anything. All evidence of Harada's supposed efforts and market analyses exist solely within his own twitter posts. They hold as much weight as him saying on twitter he would convince Sakurai not to add characters he gets spammed with. We don't even know that "KOS-MOS + Switch = no money" is the case since for all we know Harada's market analysis consisted only of PS4 owners which is his platform of choice anyway.

Sadly, as great as it'd be if people were aware of the developers behind the games they love, they're just gonna connect the games to Nintendo (the most famous name attached to them). I don't think Monolith's name is getting any more famous than it already is.

We'll see about that

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Meowth/Mimikyu/Lycanroc pre-Lloyd Irving/Chosen Undead/KOS MOS

Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x260
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x240
Tidus x230
Nate Adams x210
[Rerate] Ezio x200
Shuichi Saihara x186
Moogle x175

150 - 101

Alex Mason x145
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x140
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x140
[Rerate] Frisk x135
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x121
The Stretchers x120
Echo: Xion (Sora) x118
Sakura Shinguji x117
D.Va x115
Red (Angry Birds) x115
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x115
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Billy Hatcher x110
Klonoa x105

100 - 51

Proto Man x95
Concept: Deltarune content x86
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x75
Boss: Ender Dragon x73
Hades (Kid Icarus) x70
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x67
The Terrarian x65
Concept: Rocket League rep x65
Amiya (Arknights) x65
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x64
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x55
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x55
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x55

50 - 25

Giygas x50
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x50
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x50
Gooigi x50
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x50
Dr. Goomba Tower x50
Magolor x50
John Marston x47
Jin Sakai x46
Stage: Bowser's Castle x40
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x40
Concept: Fortnite character x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
Ghirahim x35
[Rerate] Monokuma x35
Boss: Rayquaza x34
Concept: Returning stages x31
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
Yoshimitsu x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25

Under 25

Echo (Olimar) x21
Black Shadow x20
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x20
Lora and Jin x20
Concept: Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed x20
Chell x18
Zeraora x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Cynthia x15
Vi (Bug Fables) x15
Taranza x11
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x10
Tetra x10
Demi-fiend x10
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x7
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Young Wizard (Wizard101) x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Kass x1

Holy ****, there's actually nothing to discuss. Uhhh... Well, fun fact, seems like most of you weren't aware that yesterday was a 10 noms day, because very few used them.

Thankfully I also have calcs so this post is longer than four lines.

Spoiler: Calcs

Neku
24.82% Chance - 68.33% Want
Last time we rated him he got 6.46% chance and 53.89% want. Obviously, the announcement of the anime and frequent rumors of a sequel have helped the lad.
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 22.45%

Agnès
25.15% Chance - 49.38% Want
Winner of predictions was Lyncario with 26.70%
Interestingly, Agnès got a higher chance score than Neku while lower want. Common consensus is that Bravely Default, already having a sequel with another one confirmed and one of Nintendo's biggest 2020 titles, is in a better place than TWEWY right now; however, the layman thinks Neku is cooler than Agnès, while Bravely fans like other characters more.

Tracer
8.53% Chance - 35.33% Want
First time we rated her she got 19.15% chance and 36.68% want. This was after Joker's announcement, so predicting big third party characters without Nintendo connections was all the rage. Last time we rated her she got 17.37% chance and 22.73% want. This was after Overwatch was announced and released for Switch, along with the announcement of Overwatch 2, but any goodwill was negated by the Blitzchung fiasco. Between then and now, attitudes toward Blizzard have softened enough that Tracer has at least managed to recover to her original want score, but the AMA disconfirmation hit her chances hard.
Winner of predictions was Jomosensual with a precise 9.00%

Diablo
8.24% Chance - 48.89% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 8.55%
For whatever reason Diablo saw very few ratings (8 for chance and 9 for want), which is pretty low all things considered (compare to Tracer who had 15). Even the Warcraft concept, which was a surprise, saw more ratings. Just something to take into account, I guess. (The Neku/Agnès and yesterday's Pokémon day also saw few ratings, with yesterday actually matching Diablo)

Concept: Warcraft rep
7.56% Chance - 33.46% Want
This was a last minute addition so there were no predictions, but you all got nominations for it so... Everyone's a winner!

Sephiroth
10.38% Chance - 38.25% Want
Last time we rated him he got 13.45% chance and 36.04% want. I don't know how, but Square Enix proving they aren't actually stingy the FF7 Remake releasing somehow made his chances go down.
Winner of predictions was Sari with 11.07%

2B
17.92% Chance - 43.73% Want
First time we rated her she got 21.72% chance and 46.18% want. Last time we rated her she got 35.41% chance and 64.09% want. Between those two instances the only thing that changed for her is that she might have been redundant for the first Pass because of Joker, but not so anymore for the second one (already confirmed by the time of her second rating). But it seems that her many cons, not the least of which being that Sakurai never met her creator until December, seem to have caught up with her and her chances got cut in half. Alongside that, it appears that a sort of hatedom for her has developed, or at least that's what I gathered from the ratings, which is surprising (though maybe it shouldn't be, as Nintendo fans still can't play her game).
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 18.50%

Meowth
2.28% Chance - 49.75% Want
Winner of predictions was NintenRob with a precise 3.00%

Mimikyu
1.94% Chance - 39.00% Want
Winner of predictions was Sari with 1.80%

Lycanroc
1.96% Chance - 38.86% Want
Last time we rated it it got 11.07% chance and 40.51% want. It seems it's around the same amount of people who want it since the day of Joker's reveal (it was actually that day; I remember because I gave my ratings on the bus coming back from buying Smash Ultimate the night of TGA), but the arrival of Sword and Shield tanked his chances.
Winner of predictions was GoodGrief741 with 1.85%

All three Pokémon saw their chance scores inflated by a single user, who gave them all 15% (you can probably guess who). Without them, the scores would actually be 0.46% for Meowth, 0.07% for Mimikyu and 0.33% for Lycanroc. Mimikyu in particular stands out as having only two score being over 0%, being the aforementioned 15% and a paltry 0.5%. So, the ones who won extra noms certainly have somebody to thank for this!

List of extra noms

Artix 15
Awakining 5
Blankiturayman 5
Calamitas 25
DanganZilla5 15
DaUsername 97
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 30
Icedragonadam 5
Jomosensual 5
KingofPhantoms 5
Lyncario 5
NintenRob 35
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 15
Sari 10
SKX31 5
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 30
Wunderwaft 5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't care for any of these guys.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Thanks C chocolatejr9 for sparing me the double post

You and I don't know whether the Nintendo shadow council decided on their own that they would "promote" ARMS, a game already out of print, 3 years later with no external interference or if the ARMS devs made some sort of request.

We do know that Nintendo chooses characters because that's what we were told. Any statement arguing the opposite should have some evidence backing it. Even if the ARMS devs requesting a character to Nintendo is what's led to its inclusion, the buck still stops at Nintendo. And there's a clear financial distinction between the ARMS devs requesting that Nintendo include a character they own and benefit from including, and Monlith theoretically asking for a character they created, only to then clarify that they actually want a third party character that would require licensing and wouldn't benefit Nintendo in the slightest. It's a pretty ludicrous scenario, and since it's the only one that leads to KOS-MOS being selected, that makes her chances ludicrously low.

And it still got content. And it still wouldn't change the fact that most of the content isn't from Fatal Fury, a distinct series. Also not the greatest argument considering Kosmos makes a playable appearance in Xenoblade.

You're comparing apples to oranges. It's like saying that, say, Iron Man getting into Smash and bringing content from all the Marvel universe means that we could also get a DC rep, being Rorschach.

Nothing in this universe guarantees a spot in Smash other than being the avatar character of the latest Fire Emblem game, but that doesn't mean it doesn't help.

You claim that being a prolific developer within Nintendo helps its chances of getting a dev rep, but we have no evidence nor precedent pointing to it helping at all.

Your Occam's Razor can be used to argue the opposite: what's likelier? Harada being biased or all the market analyses of games related to him genuinely failing when it comes to Switch?

The simpler explanation there is still that the producer for a huge developer and publisher knows more about the profitability of its products than you do.

 

[7NATOR]

I'l be quick about this

Lloyd

Chances: 50%

Tales of is a big franchise in Japan, and there has been demand to add a Character from the Series. Lloyd has been the most demanded for Smash from the Franchise. His Mii Costume is missing. I think the Dual Swords aspect could be cool, and the Combos with the Special canceling of his artes could alos be cool from what I've heard

However, I Know Lloyd isn't actually the most popular character in even the fanbase. It's Yuri. there's even other characters above him. Heihachi's Costume returned out of the blue (it did fit ARMS Fighting game theme), so it's not concrete we're getting a Namco character at all. Could have balancing issues with the Combos, but I don't think it's no where as big of a Problem as it is with other potential characters (Dante)

50/50. Could see him in, could not

Want: 50-70%

His Playstyle seems like it would be cool. I'm not into Lloyd like that though. However Lloyd goes to 70% if they bring in Scott, Lloyd' First VA that voiced Robin in teen Titans. That would be awesome

Chosen Undead

Chances: 5%

Darks Souls is influental Franchise in gaming. Very popular. however the gameplay aspect of Dark Souls I don't think could be easily Implmented in Smash. there other other options even within Namco. Don't see it

Want: 40%

I don't really see how his moveset would be that cool in the context of Smash. Otherwise though nothing else to say


KOS-MOS

Chances: 20-30%

She definitely has that Android girl design that we don't have in Smash. Lots of Cool stuff she can do as she's a 1 Woman Army. Monoliths loves her, Harada has been trying to get the Franchise revived, her as a character has outgrown the Franchise due to her popularity. The KOS-MOS Mod Takedown video may or may not have merit. It hasn't been fully Solved on that case

however, her franchise is dead, and apprantly was deem unprofitable for a Remaster (or was it Remake, those are big differences). Stiff compettion with Lloyd and other Tales of Characters, Stiff Competetion with Rex, Elma, other Xeno Characters. I wouldn't say the most Iconic character or comes from the Most Iconic franchise. I'll keep her in mind, but yes

Want: 80%

Never Played any type of Xeno game, but she has a Really Cool design and has alot of Cool stuff to do from what I've seen. Just cool. yes

 

[I.D.]

We do know that Nintendo chooses characters because that's what we were told. Any statement arguing the opposite should have some evidence backing it. Even if the ARMS devs requesting a character to Nintendo is what's led to its inclusion, the buck still stops at Nintendo. And there's a clear financial distinction between the ARMS devs requesting that Nintendo include a character they own and benefit from including, and Monlith theoretically asking for a character they created, only to then clarify that they actually want a third party character that would require licensing and wouldn't benefit Nintendo in the slightest. It's a pretty ludicrous scenario, and since it's the only one that leads to KOS-MOS being selected, that makes her chances ludicrously low.

We were also told that Sakurai was personally sent to negotiate with Square for Dragon Quest (not Hero) and apparently he even had enough freedom to think of requesting Slime on his own in case he didn't get Hero. We were also told that Rare employees approached Nintendo employees regarding Banjo during E3 2018. Truth is, none of us knows for sure how the process works but it probably isn't something as rigid the average poster on this forum imagines and it no doubt involves a lot of discussion.

You're comparing apples to oranges. It's like saying that, say, Iron Man getting into Smash and bringing content from all the Marvel universe means that we could also get a DC rep, being Rorschach.

Not at all. Kosmos makes a playable appearance in Xenoblade 2. She's there, in the game. With a design co-owned by Nintendo even. I don't know crap about western comics, I imagine it would be more like someone not from Iron Man's world but who gets to appear with him in Marvel movies.
Oh, and it doesn't change the fact that Metal Slug got content. Saying "it doesn't count" is not very convincing.

You claim that being a prolific developer within Nintendo helps its chances of getting a dev rep, but we have no evidence nor precedent pointing to it helping at all.

Yabuki is responsible for the immense success of Mario Kart. Yabuki got his waifu in Smash.

The simpler explanation there is still that the producer for a huge developer and publisher knows more about the profitability of its products than you do.

Woah woah woah, easy bro. Just having us a conversation. No need to get heated.

 

[GoodGrief741]

We were also told that Sakurai was personally sent to negotiate with Square for Dragon Quest (not Hero) and apparently he even had enough freedom to think of requesting Slime on his own in case he didn't get Hero.

Actually Sakurai did approach Square Enix to ask for Hero. He did have the backup plan of Slime, but only if they said no to Hero, and it had been discussed with Nintendo previously.

Source: https://www.siliconera.com/masahiro...imates-hero-dlc-director-philosophy-and-more/

We were also told that Rare employees approached Nintendo employees regarding Banjo during E3 2018.

Actually, that interview only states that Rare and Nintendo had their initial meeting in E3 2018, not that Rare initiated. See for yourself: https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2020-01-29-who-saved-rare (It's a long interview, the relevant part is around the midway point)

Not at all. Kosmos makes a playable appearance in Xenoblade 2. She's there, in the game. With a design co-owned by Nintendo even. I don't know crap about western comics, I imagine it would be more like someone not from Iron Man's world but who gets to appear with him in Marvel movies.
Oh, and it doesn't change the fact that Metal Slug got content. Saying "it doesn't

My bad on using a poor example. But the point was that Terry gets to be an SNK rep because most of SNK takes place in a single universe, much like with Marvel or DC. That doesn't apply to most cases, and it certainly doesn't apply to Monolith where their three franchises legally can't take place in a single universe.

In other words, Terry isn't representing SNK, he's representing the KoF-verse. Much like Simon and Richter aren't suddenly Konami reps because they came with a song from Getsu Fuma Den.

The whole point is moot anyway because Monolith isn't an IP holder. But, say KOS-MOS got in, not by her own merits, but as a "Monolith rep". Would that mean we'd get Xenogears and Xenoblade content with her? Because if not, then she could hardly be said to be representing Monolith as a company, but rather simply Xenosaga.

Yabuki is responsible for the immense success of Mario Kart. Yabuki got his waifu in Smash.

I take it this is a joke.

Woah woah woah, easy bro. Just having us a conversation. No need to get heated.

I don't see how pointing out that Harada is probably better informed and less biased about the profitability of Xenosaga could be taken as an insult.

 

[I.D.]

Actually Sakurai did approach Square Enix to ask for Hero. He did have the backup plan of Slime, but only if they said no to Hero, and it had been discussed with Nintendo previously.

Source: https://www.siliconera.com/masahiro...imates-hero-dlc-director-philosophy-and-more/

My bad on Hero but

From Sakurai’s side, he says that requests to add in a Dragon Quest representative have been around for a long time, but he felt it wasn’t possible. However, Nintendo approached Sakurai, saying it might be possible, and so he ended up doing the presentation proposal with the intent of working with Dragon Quest, although what from Dragon Quest would be worked out later on. If he was told ‘no’ to Hero and ‘yes’ to Slime or something like that, he’d do it, but Sakurai felt Hero was the best option. That said, he did know that there would be many hurdles to working on Hero.

Sakurai literally prepared a presentation proposal without nobody even knowing what exactly from Dragon Quest he would get. This is pretty much what I mean by the process not being rigid. I also don't see anywhere that his Slime backup plan was something arranged with Nintendo.

Actually, that interview only states that Rare and Nintendo had their initial meeting in E3 2018, not that Rare initiated. See for yourself: https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2020-01-29-who-saved-rare (It's a long interview, the relevant part is around the midway point)

My bad.

My bad on using a poor example. But the point was that Terry gets to be an SNK rep because most of SNK takes place in a single universe, much like with Marvel or DC. That doesn't apply to most cases, and it certainly doesn't apply to Monolith where their three franchises legally can't take place in a single universe.

In other words, Terry isn't representing SNK, he's representing the KoF-verse. Much like Simon and Richter aren't suddenly Konami reps because they came with a song from Getsu Fuma Den.

Arguing that Terry represents the KoF-verse instead of SNK feels moot when all of SNK's big series belong there. Well Metal Slug doesn't but it also got 4 songs with him anyway (versus one song from an obscure game heavily based on Castlevania 2 despite technically not being a Castlevania).

The whole point is moot anyway because Monolith isn't an IP holder. But, say KOS-MOS got in, not by her own merits, but as a "Monolith rep". Would that mean we'd get Xenogears and Xenoblade content with her? Because if not, then she could hardly be said to be representing Monolith as a company, but rather simply Xenosaga.

Xenogears wasn't developed by Monolith.
But yeah, she could, why not? Using Xenosaga content is obviously not that hard (as evidenced by Monolith using it over and over even after joining Nintendo) and then Xenoblade is already owned by Nintendo, so... where's the problem? Just for **** and giggles add some original Project X Zone stuff while we're at it too.

I take it this is a joke.

Kinda. It goes back to my original point of developers input actually being taken into account. And it would seem to me a successful developer would have more goodwill available to them to make suggestions. But you're right, no hard proof.

I don't see how pointing out that Harada is probably better informed and less biased about the profitability of Xenosaga could be taken as an insult.

It seems like you are trying to shut me down by saying I have no idea what I'm talking about. But Harada isn't a machine, he's a human whose thoughts and opinions can be analyzed. Recently in the newcomer thread for example there was a discussion about Sakurai's biases for Kirby and a conversation like that can't happen if people simply say "well Sakurai knows better than all of you anyway, occam's razor says Sakurai's Kirby games are simpy worth a lot more than everything that came after him"

Errr to be honest I need to get some sleep so the conversation ends here but it seems like the crux for why we can't see eye to eye (and correct me if I'm wrong) is that you see this character as an impossible because in your view it's a licensing nightmare that nobody benefits from. But from my view, when you look at who the parties involved actually are, they are so close together anyway any discussions and negotiations are little more than a formality. Nintendo and Bamco are so close they are developing Smash Ultimate (among other things). Monolith is a Nintendo subsidiary (duh). Monolith has continued to do contracted work for Bamco even after joining Nintendo, and Bamco allows them to use content created by them with almost seemingly no restriction (not just Xenosaga, they've made and posted Baten Kaitos and Project X Zone art on their website too). Monolith benefits on a personal level, Bamco makes more money from DLC sales (not like they are making any right now! other than Heihachi's mii costume...), and Nintendo gets another character to sell, who happens to appear in Xenoblade 2 and whose merchandise they are already selling anyway. And while that certainly isn't the most ideal form of XB2 promotion it's still several steps above Sakurai advertising the XBone in Banjo's presentation while people laugh in the background.

Kosmos isn't even the monolith character I'd bet on. That's still Rex and co. But if not them, Kosmos is definitely my second bet.

 

[Perkilator]

I think I'll cover the lack of Chosen Undead talk with a meme I made not too long ago:

(Pls ignore the other two)

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Lloyd

Chance: 55%

I feel that Lloyd is more likely than not.

+Lloyd's costume is missing, implying they may use him in another way.
+Sakurai has stated Lloyd is a popular request and has implied any Tales character would have to be him.
+His moveset is easy to visualize.
+Tales is a large long standing franchise that has a fair amount of history on and off Nintendo consoles.
+Appeal seems to be global.
+All franchise competition from Namco is seemingly gone.

-Lloyd may not be a character Nintendo wants to market
-Yuri may be picked instead

Overall, I just feel good about his chances which is great cause he and Phoenix Wright are my most wanted characters.

Want: 100%

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Abstain on KOS-MOS.

Tales of "does having 2 swords make you a different kind of swordfighter?" (Lloyd Irving)

Chance: 20%
If there's going to be another JRPG rep, I think Lloyd will be it. He's a very popular character and arguably the biggest Bandai Namco candidate. The Tales of series has long-standing legacy rivalling that of Final Fantasy. Did I mention that we haven't seen a Lloyd Mii costume yet?

The biggest obstacle in Lloyd's way, I think, is that there may not be another JRPG rep. We already got 2 of those in the first pack - Joker and Hero. He also might not be very...sellable, lacking a true surprise element.

Want: 25%
A few years ago I played a bit of Tales of Vesperia, up to the point where they arrive at the besieged town near the beginning. That's it. My entire experience with Tales.

I personally have no connection to Lloyd whatsoever, except for in Super Smash Flash 2. Even within Tales I'd prefer if Yuri got in, since his game is the one I played. That said, I wouldn't really mind if he got in, but...

Bandai Namco has another character I'd much rather support.


I died (Chosen Undead)

Chance: 8%
Dark Souls is influential enough in the RPG industry to merit a check on the "popularity" box, and that's not to mention all the memes. (My personal favorite is the one where the Chosen Undead and a couple of other characters dance their way out of the tutorial dungeon in DS1 while "Take On Me" plays.) That said...the Chosen Undead doesn't fit in Smash. He's...too clunky, and wouldn't have a very fitting artstyle either.

The Chosen Undead also has competition not just from other western RPG reps, but also from other Bandai Namco characters, which is probably the biggest obstacle to his inclusion in Smash.

Want: 60%
Which is quite a shame, actually, because I like FromSoft and their works. Bloodborne remains my favorite, but I'd be lying if I didn't think Dark Souls was cool. Dark Souls' legacy is undeniable, and if Nintendo could actually pull off the Chosen Undead it'd be sick.

Noms: Amiya x5

 

[3BitSaurus]

Wow, it's been a while, huh?

KOS-MOS
Chance: 1%
Series is currently inactive and is considered niche and unprofitable by their original makers? Check. Kept alive only by cameos and appearances in crossover games, making her basically Namco's Morrigan or Captain Falcon? Check. Some fan support, but not nearly enough to be considered a "Smash Bubble" pick? Check.

Yeah, I don't see this happening. Only notable Namco characters I'd call less viable than her are, I dunno, Prince of All Cosmos and Klonoa... and that's not good for her chances. At all.

Want: 10%
Eh. Could be fun, I suppose, but I can't lie, it would feel a bit like a slap to the face when Xenosaga's more well-known cousin got snubbed like, twice, even though it's a first party series.

Lloyd Irving
Chance: 50%
I think at this point, if any third party costumes get promoted, it will be either Lloyd or Geno. With Tekken having been slain with Heihachi's costume returning, it does put Tales as the most likely Namco franchise for DLC. Only question is: Lloyd has the advantage of being the "Nintendo Tales protagonist", but would that be enough for him to be selected over Yuri? Or a newer protagonist, for that matter?

That's why I feel like the ol' "Coin Toss" chance applies here: either it happens or it doesn't at this point. Regardless, Tales as a series has pretty much checked every box that would warrant a Smash appearance.

Want: 50%
Neutral on him. I guess dual swords would be cool, but Smash Flash 2 did not give me a good impression on his playstyle. Dunno, felt a bit too much like "Cloud, but with two katanas instead of the Buster Sword". I hope that if he gets in, Sakurai can pull more elements and mechanics from Tales, because that series is certainly not lacking in cool battle mechanics.

Chosen Undead
Chance: 20%
Arguably the dark horse of Namco. DS is one of the genre defining games of the 2010s (yes, I'm aware Demon's Souls is from the 2000s) and I feel like the aesthetic could really be made to work in Smash. Only question is how to bring some of its... less PG creatures in, I suppose. But the series has more than enough merit.

Want: 50%
Also neutral. I think it's a good opportunity for a level-based character, given how experience works in DS. But I would also find it interesting if DS representation came in the form of a Boss - it's arguably what the series is known for, much like Monster Hunter.

Predictions
Cinderace: 15%
Inteleon: 9.2%
Rillaboom: 5.3%
Urshifu: 15%
Dragapult: 7.5%
Melmetal: 2.8%
Toxtricity: 8.1%

Nominations
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x 5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Not the 'Tails' rep I want
Chance: 40%
Sakurai loves a cheeky swordsman. Tales is popular. There's a missing Mii outfit of Lloyd. Namco have actually helped out with Smash Bros and yet they've only ever got Pac-Man whilst Capcom, Sega, Konami and Square have all got multiple characters in first. Heck, some of them have their third character in already, whilst hard working Namco is lagging behind.

One of Lloyd's biggest competitors in Heihachi recently got Mii costume deconfirmation, and he's probably the 'biggest' Namco character in terms of Smash support left...

...then again, Tales fans also love Yuri, and Yuri may even beat Lloyd out for popularity within his series so maybe Sakurai wants to rethink his original Tales stance.

Want: 20%
I know Lloyd is popular, but I haven't seen a fan movset yet that makes him interesting to me, I'm sorry. I'm sure he has unique sword skills, but I am genuinely just sick of Swordsmen additions at this point, be they from a JRPG(aka 'anime') or not. I'll throw 20% his way for being a new series and popular, but nothing Lloyd does with his blades particularly stands out other than there's two of them...

Flying through the KOS MOS
Chance: 2%
KOS MOS has had a fair few cameos and crossovers, notably semi recently she's even been in Xenoblade 2 meeting Rex and Pyra alongside Elma, Shulk and Fiora and honestly every single one of those names stands in KOS MOS's way. I just don't feel like Xenosaga will be included over Xenoblade, which Nintendo don't need to mess around with negotions with.

Want: 0%
Like I said, I am kinda done with swordsmen at this point...or swords themselves in KOS MOS' case. Even if I wanted a blade, I'd pick Elma over KOS MOS who is (IMO) a more enjoyable individual.

UNDEAD UNLUCK
Chance: 20%
Dark Souls is huge. Actually if we're honest here it's probably a bigger deal than the Tales series is and maybe even Tekken. "Souls like" has become a blanket term in gaming and there's been dozens of copy cat clones of this series, with even Solaire getting his own Amiibo.

Chosen Undead doesn't have an exact design since he's an avatar but I guess he could have alts with different armour? He has competition from Solaire in his own franchise too who is a fan favourite and was the one to get that aforementioned amiibo.

Want: 30%
It's another swordsman. Okay, you don't HAVE to use a sword, you can use an axe or a halberd or a spear, but there's SEVEN CATOGARIES OF SWORDS in Dark Souls, with A WHOPPING 50 DIFFERENT SWORDS, so there's a good chance he'll be a swordsman.

Dark Souls is a game I respect and the world is great, but I don't feel like Chosen Undead would make for a very compelling character. Aside from the trademark roll, I'm not sure what the Chosen Undead can offer as a character.

Predictions
Cinderace: 30%
Inteleon: 7%
Rillaboom: 7%
Urshifu: 12%
Dragapult: 5%
Melmetal: 0.5%
Toxtricity: 10%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x 5

 

[Ypsen]

I didn't chose that undead

Abstain on this one, I didn't even know Dark Souls had a protagonist since I don't know jack about this franchise.

Red, red, red. Does my outfit stand out that much ?

Chance : 33%

I know it's way lower than everybody's expectation, but I do believe the main reason we raise Lloyd's chance that high is because he's in the center of every discussion about potential DLCs, even when people doesn't want him. He's relevant and popular that for sure, and I don't need to list all of the reasons since it has already been done by you all.
There's a trend among smash fans, wich is only to consider seriously the characters who are already the center of attention, (because of popularity, rumors, leaks, relevency/logic...). That's why Joker, Terry and Min Min inclusion were a big surprise to everyone, and I'm sure if they were discussed as potential characters before their announcements, they would have been listed as "low chance". It's also explained (in a way) why everybody was freaking mad over Byleth, because a FE character was not anticipated by a lot of Fans only focused on popular choices and trends for the DLC.
When I tried to focus only on the reasons why Nintendo would promote Tales in Smash in this current era, I found no reasons why they'd chose Tales over any other franchises which are profitable in the current market. There's only Vesperia DE, which is more than a port than a remaster on Switch and doesn't bring much attention, so we can't say Nintendo is making or planning any profits other the Tales of licence at the moment. Worst, the next mothership Tales of is announced on every other platforms except the Switch. You must remember that the release date or the promotion of a game is fairly important in the competitive market, and Nintendo surely has some JRPG on his sleeves. Promoting a game wich could heavily compete (it's Tales of after all...) with your own planned JRPG games could be a very bad move.
But at least Banjo proved that the DLC could be only fanservice moves (all the other had a marketing goal, even Terry) even if it's a rare occurence. So Lloyd being a favorite and coming from a japanese juggernaut is already a very good thing for him, but the popularity alone makes him compete with a lot of other very popular characters that Nintendo could chose for another fan service DLC. So yeah, one in three chance sounds reasonnable to me.

Want : 100%
Tales of Symphonia is my second favorite video-game of all time, and Lloyd being my oldest pick for Smash (since Melee). There's only Isaac I'd choose over him. He's not my favorite Tales character, but oddly enough, I see him fitting the smash roster more than any other Tales character.


KO's-MOS

Chance : 15%

I find very funny that since everybody realise that she has been pushed by the rumors of leaks, people try finally to consider the market perspective to rate her chance. I wish we could do that for every character. That being said, putting her in the "near impossible" spot is way too exagerrated. Especially since she's in a very similar spot than Isaac (before the DLC), minus Isaac's popularity for Smash. Her licence being dead and the producer announcing the licences is not enough profitable is definitively a heavy argument against her, but she's far from being the only character to be in this case. Actually, like I said, Isaac is in the same spot (the produced said they stopped the serie because it wasn't enough profitable for the amount of work they put in this franchise). But everybody thought Isaac was a shoe-in, ranking him with like 80% chance of appearance. I know, Isaac has other arguments (fortunately !), but so does KOS-MOS.
She's basically Monolith mascot and has a deep bond with the J-RPG in general. Monolith's doing greater than ever (and still referencing her) could decide to revive her or to use Smash in order to revitalise the attention brought to her serie. It's all depend of what Monolith soft decide for the future, and that, we don't know. Shulk was already a very strange pick back in the day, because XenoB wasn't popular at all but Nintendo and Monolith already decided to push this franchise forward with an heavy game on the WiiU, something we didn't know. We can't deny the possibility of a return of Xenosaga (could be linked with XenoB's lore tbh) or any plan to bring back KOS-MOS. Her chances are definitively low, but she's still a JRPG icon from an editor doing great at the moment. Ranking her near zero is ridiculous in my humble opinion.

Want : 70%

I only played Xenosaga II a few hours back in the day. I freaking loved the game but my brother sold his PS2 so I never finished it. I also watched the anime right after. Then I kept seeing KOS-MOS appearing in a lot of games : Soul Calibur, Baten Kaitos, Project X zone, Tales of, Xenoblade... So this character kinda stuck into my head. Plus, I still want to play her games someday. And since I'm vouching for a port of her trilogy, seeing her joining Smash could eventually help that a lot.

 

[GoodGrief741]

That's why Joker, Terry and Min Min inclusion were a big surprise to everyone, and I'm sure if they were discussed as potential characters before their announcements, they would have been listed as "low chance".

Terry and Min Min weren't seen as low chance, SNK as a whole got good ratings on this thread, even if it was underestimated, and everyone and their mothers was talking about Min Min as one of, if not the frontrunner for the ARMS rep.

It's also explained (in a way) why everybody was freaking mad over Byleth, because a FE character was not anticipated by a lot of Fans only focused on popular choices and trends for the DLC.

It was nearly unanimous that a Three Houses character was one of the safest bets for Fighter Pass 2. While being in the first Pass caught people by surprise, I think that's negligible in regards to the negative response; it was all about them being yet another Fire Emblem.

When I tried to focus only on the reasons why Nintendo would promote Tales in Smash in this current era, I found no reasons why they'd chose Tales over any other franchises which are profitable in the current market. There's only Vesperia DE, which is more than a port than a remaster on Switch and doesn't bring much attention, so we can't say Nintendo is making or planning any profits other the Tales of licence at the moment. Worst, the next mothership Tales of is announced on every other platforms except the Switch.

What are Nintendo's reasons for promoting Persona, Banjo-Kazooie and SNK?

Especially since she's in a very similar spot than Isaac (before the DLC), minus Isaac's popularity for Smash.

That popularity's a big difference though.

But everybody thought Isaac was a shoe-in, ranking him with like 80% chance of appearance.

Uhhhh, no?

Monolith's doing greater than ever (and still referencing her) could decide to revive her or to use Smash in order to revitalise the attention brought to her serie.

Monolith doesn't make the decisions though.

Shulk was already a very strange pick back in the day, because XenoB wasn't popular at all

The game that was localized because of an overwhelmingly massive fan campaign wasn't popular?

she's still a JRPG icon

 

[Calamitas]

You need to use at least 99 of each type of Core Crystal to get her

Chance: 5%
Not really seeing it. KOS-MOS has appeared in a few crossover games, sure. . . but those are all for games that are already quite old at this point, and her cameos have slowed down significantly since then. Sure, she was in the Project Cross Zone games and Xenoblade 2, but those were developed by Monolith Soft. And since they have this weird obsession with this character (up to and including modelling several other future characters after her), it's not surprising that they'd put her in. Nintendo and Sakurai however? I'm not seeing it. Not when her series was ultimately deemed so unprofitable that it was passed over for an HD remaster by Bandai-Namco.

Want: 15%
I'd get a bit of laugh of it since she'd technically also qualify as a Xenoblade 2 rep, but that's all about I can say for KOS-MOS. I wouldn't mind her inclusion too terribly much, but I don't really want her that much, either.

It's "Dark Soul", the famous protagonist of the hit franchise, Dark Souls! Known for his famous quotes: "Everything is darkest before the soul" and "Every soul has its dark"!

Chance: 20%
. . .Jokey ****posts aside, Dark Souls is a very successful series, and widely known. Its legacy alone would enough to warrant a spot in Smash. But with a playable character? I'm not so sure. I could see a Spirit event or a stage for the series, but I don't think that Nintendo and Sakurai really have much of an interest in seeing a playable character for it.

Want: 30%
I played the Switch release of Dark Souls and liked it well enough. I could see myself getting some enjoyment from a DS character. But it's still nothing that I actively want all that much, especially since all the music I heard from the series is rather underwhelming. Hell, I even turned off music in my playthrough entirely after a while, since the song that played in Firelink Shrine got on my nerves.

Shoto Todoroki

Chance: 35%
I'll keep this short. Tales Of has a long history, is probably the biggest franchise of Bandai-Namco currently not represented in Smash, and has fan demand, with Lloyd in particular being acknowledged by Sakurai in an interview in the past (I think?). However, based on how the entire life span of Smash 4 and Ultimate have gone thus far, I'm starting to believe that Bandai-Namco have no real interest in getting another one of their characters in Smash, which in turn probably also affects Nintendo's and Sakurai's stance in the matter, since Bamco is helping with development. As of right now, I'm willing to believe that it's more likely that we're gonna see Lloyd's Mii Costume return with another JRPG character on this pass, instead of him making it in as a playable fighter.

Want: Abstain
Never played any Tales Of game, and don't really have an interest in the series either. No want rating from me.

Predictions. . . oof. Okay.

Melmetal - 0.23%
Rillaboom - 36.72%
Cinderace - 34.83%
Inteleon - 12.53%
Toxtricity - 27.33%
Dragapult - 14.37%
Urshifu - 29.46%

Nominating Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x5

 

[Ypsen]

Terry and Min Min weren't seen as low chance, SNK as a whole got good ratings on this thread, even if it was underestimated, and everyone and their mothers was talking about Min Min as one of, if not the frontrunner for the ARMS rep.
I'm talking before an arms rep was announced. Very few people was talking about Arms since the release of the full base roster. As for Terry, the discussion about SNK only began after the leaks and rumors about a SNK rep. Before that, it wasn't even considerate since how niche and old SNK appears to a lot of smash fans.

It was nearly unanimous that a Three Houses character was one of the safest bets for Fighter Pass 2. While being in the first Pass caught people by surprise, I think that's negligible in regards to the negative response; it was all about them being yet another Fire Emblem.
Actually, there's was two major opinions. Some did think that 3H character was inevitable, others strongly believed this wasn't possible because the FP seemed to be third party only. In any case, Byleth was often overlooked or discarded as viable pick by a lot of people.

What are Nintendo's reasons for promoting Persona, Banjo-Kazooie and SNK?
Persona 5 Scramble, Samurai Showdown and SNK 40th anniversary collection. Banjo seems to be fanservice, like I said.

That popularity's a big difference though.
Sure, but still... a 80% gap ? That's ridiculous, especially when the near 0% argument is based on a fact that also applies to Isaac.

Uhhhh, no?
I was among the Isaac Fanbase, both on french and english forums. The support and prediction that Isaac got was absolutely unreal (and unrealistic). Which it lead eventually to Anti-Isaac fanbase, mostly on Gamefaqs and Jeuxvideo.com

Monolith doesn't make the decisions though.
Of course, but them and Nintendo could decide together. If they have plans that profits Nintendo.

The game that was localized because of an overwhelmingly massive fan campaign wasn't popular?
No it wasn't. Operation Rainfall did manage to bring Xeno to the west, but to the public, Xenoblade was totally unknown. Hence the "nobody" rants about Shulk back when he was announced, or even the hihgly skeptical arguments about him after the ERSB leaks. Even I, who was a huge fan of Xenoblade at the time wasn't sure if it was real just because of how niche Xeno was (and I was already aware of the Rainfall operation, wich actualy motivated me to support the operation MoonFall for Majora's Mask 3D). Outside the JRPG fandom, Xenoblade barely existed.

View attachment 282910
If she wasn't, she wouldn't appearing in so much videogames and anime. She's isn't the most popular icon, but she still is nonetheless. I have a few friends who doesn't play so much JRPG, but they know her because of Soul Calibur. An icon is a type of character where eventually, you can't escape it.
But she had better days, that's for sure...

 

[GoodGrief741]

Ypsen

Re: Persona 5 Scramble, SamSho and SNK collections
If those games are enough for Nintendo to consider adding a character, then so is Tales of Vesperia DE.

Re: Isaac
Isaac's fandom perceiving him as likely should be no surprise. But outside of that you'd struggle to find anyone giving him great odds. But Isaac's likelihood has little to do with KOS-MOS' as they are nowhere near the same position, in terms of ownership and popularity.

Re: KOS-MOS is an icon because she keeps getting appearances
She keeps getting appearances because her creators love her, you yourself acknowledged that. If you think KOS-MOS is a character who will inevitably be recognized by anyone, you've a really skewed experience.

 

[fogbadge]

Lloyd being my oldest pick for Smash (since Melee).

youve wanted a 3rd party since before we knew we could have them?

 

[SharkLord]

youve wanted a 3rd party since before we knew we could have them?

People have wanted Sonic and Banjo since Melee, with varying beliefs on their chances. This shouldn't be too much of a surprise.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

youve wanted a 3rd party since before we knew we could have them?

I'm more concerned that they wanted Lloyd since before Tales of Symphonia existed.

 

[SharkLord]

I'm more concerned that they wanted Lloyd since before Tales of Symphonia existed.

I'd imagine they meant "Since the GameCube era."
Either that, or they had a fully-functioning Monado about a decade before Xenoblade was a thing.

 

[Ypsen]

Ypsen


Re: Persona 5 Scramble, SamSho and SNK collections
If those games are enough for Nintendo to consider adding a character, then so is Tales of Vesperia DE.
It's the time frame wich is important in this case. Lloyd could have been profitable at the beginning of the first FP, but not after. The game I listed were announced or released in a perfect time frame when the characters were announced. Of course, IF Nintendo chose to advertise suddenly out of nowhere ToV, it would raise Lloyd's chance. But Like I said, Nintendo doesn't really give Tales of so much attention lately.

Re: Isaac
Isaac's fandom perceiving him as likely should be no surprise. But outside of that you'd struggle to find anyone giving him great odds. But Isaac's likelihood has little to do with KOS-MOS' as they are nowhere near the same position, in terms of ownership and popularity.
I never struggle to find anyone giving Isaac great odds. Sadly, the majority of realistic prediction (below 50) I found was from the anti-Isaac fanbase themself (too bad their arguments were utterly stupid though...). There was people who was pretty neutral on Isaac, but even so their bet was around 50% chance.

Re: KOS-MOS is a JRPG icon because she keeps getting appearances
She keeps getting appearances because her creators love her, you yourself acknowledged that. If you think KOS-MOS is a character who will inevitably be recognized by anyone, you've a really skewed experience.
No, she kept getting appearances because her creators love her, but also because she is popular. It's undeniable she's getting less and less popular by the time, but she undoubtly left an impression on the JRPG fandom. Defenition of icon : "someone or something that is famous, especially considered to be a representation of a value, idea, etc" You could find a lot of reviews on magazine or random facts that proves her popularity.

youve wanted a 3rd party since before we knew we could have them?

I was what ? 10 or 12 ? I didn't even know what 3rd party meant at the time. Tales of Symphonia was a Gamecube exclusive (at the time), so I thought Lloyd was a Nintendo character. I started to understand the 3rd party concept thanks to Brawl.

EDIT : yeah, I meant the Gamecube era, I played ToS way after Melee. But at the time I was 100% convinced that Lloyd or Kalas (didn't know BK wasn't popular...) would be part of the next Smash. I was puzzled when I saw Snake got into the game instead of Lloyd. Then again I discover Tales of has it own franchise only after the release of ToV... Good ol' days...