Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[fogbadge]

People have wanted Sonic and Banjo since Melee, with varying beliefs on their chances. This shouldn't be too much of a surprise.

to be fair B&K had only just stopped being nintendo characters

I'm more concerned that they wanted Lloyd since before Tales of Symphonia existed.

ive heard odder

I'd imagine they meant "Since the GameCube era."
Either that, or they had a fully-functioning Monado about a decade before Xenoblade was a thing.

well i had one so its not that strange

I was what ? 10 or 12 ? I didn't even know what 3rd party meant at the time. Tales of Symphonia was a Gamecube exclusive (at the time), so I thought Lloyd was a Nintendo character. I started to understand the 3rd party concept thanks to Brawl.

EDIT : yeah, I meant the Gamecube era, I played ToS way after Melee. But at the time I was 100% convinced that Lloyd or Kalas (didn't know BK wasn't popular...) would be part of the next Smash. I was puzzled when I saw Snake got into the game instead of Lloyd. Then again I discover Tales of has it own franchise only after the release of ToV... Good ol' days...

fair enough

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Sonic and Banjo make sense but I'm surprised Lloyd was such a huge request back then, even if it was the Gamecube era. Third parties weren't a thing yet and big Nintendo all-stars (along with heavily Nintendo-centric third parties like Banjo) hadn't yet made the roster.

 

[SharkLord]

Sonic and Banjo make sense but I'm surprised Lloyd was such a huge request back then, even if it was the Gamecube era. Third parties weren't a thing yet and big Nintendo all-stars (along with heavily Nintendo-centric third parties like Banjo) hadn't yet made the roster.

To be fair, it was a big RPG on a console almost completely devoid of major RPGs. It filled that niche nicely, and it got a lot of love for that. Not that big a surprise when you think about it.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

To be fair, it was a big RPG on a console almost completely devoid of major RPGs. It filled that niche nicely, and it got a lot of love for that. Not that big a surprise when you think about it.

I know, but was he really on the same level as someone like Sonic or Banjo?

 

[SharkLord]

I know, but was he really on the same level as someone like Sonic or Banjo?

Probably not that big, but I'd imagine he'd have been fairly popular.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I know, but was he really on the same level as someone like Sonic or Banjo?

By what measure exactly?

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

People have wanted Sonic and Banjo since Melee, with varying beliefs on their chances. This shouldn't be too much of a surprise.

To be fair, Banjo WAS a Nintendo character in legal terms before Rare moved to Microsoft.

(Source: DK Vine)

Sonic and Banjo make sense but I'm surprised Lloyd was such a huge request back then, even if it was the Gamecube era. Third parties weren't a thing yet and big Nintendo all-stars (along with heavily Nintendo-centric third parties like Banjo) hadn't yet made the roster.

Im pretty sure Lloyd wasn't popular in the pre-Melee era, but the Pre-Brawl era (the period between after E3 2006 and before Brawl's release).

As soon as Snake was announced and Third Parties were now a thing, i wouldn't be surprised if Lloyd was popular back then, since the mid-Os was when Tales started getting hype on Western territories thanks to Symphonia, and it helps that Brawl speculation era was a "Anything goes" wild west scenario, which is evident since it was around this time the likes of Geno started getting support. It was only during Smash 4's pre-release speculation that people went nuts with any fan-rule possible such as "the guest characters must be super iconic (which meant Pac-Man took the spot as the most likely Namco rep)" or "1 character per company (which made Lloyd seem super unlikely since it was Pac-Man who was seen as the de-facto Namco rep)", etc.

Though i only speak from my own perspective, as i am familar with Smash 4's pre-release period, but not Pre-Brawl since i was just a toddler who didn't knew how to use internet (well, i barely did)

 

[Sid-cada]

Lloyd Irving

Chance - 15% - While I know this is a "new cast every game" sort of deal, Sakurai's "Who else but Lloyd?" kinda says to me that if any Tales character gets in, it's him. Thing is, I'm not certain Tales of would be chosen at all. Tales, while not THE RPG compared to the likes of FF or DQ, are at least respectable and notable entries in the Genre. That said, Namco-Bandai have been remarkably restrained when it comes to other content, outside of their retro stuff. He seems like a good candidate, but given how restrained Namco has been I'm not certain how likely he is.

Want - 50% - Eh, I'll have to see his move set to form an opinion. I don't care much about RPGs, including his.


KOS MOS

Chance - 0.05% - When the director said "We can't make even a remake because the higher ups said that it won't be profitable enough," you know that a series isn't in good shape. In addition, she arguably faces competition from a first party franchise, as Xenoblade is essentially a spiritual successor to the franchise, and we all know that Rex deserves at least some consideration to be in the running. Both of those combined make me very skeptical of her chances.

Want - 50% - Again, not a character I care about. I'll have to see her in action to judge her.


Choosen Undead

Chance - 0% - In my mind, Monster Hunter is a more successful game with an extremely similar combat system that has vastly more potential and already has content in the game. I can't see them picking him when Monster Hunter exists.

Want - 40% - As I have already said, Monster Hunter would probably fit a similar Niche while also being more interesting. I'll take one of them over this one.


Nominations

Monster Hunter X5

 

[Perkilator]

For those doubting Chosen Undead...I can kinda see why, but this video by Source Gaming provides some really good points on how Chosen Undead can work.

 

[Ridrool64]

Bamco's trio

So it's been a while, huh? Well, I've been away for two reasons. 1. Persona 5 Royal. 2. I felt my interests gradually start slipping away from me when it comes to this place. Let's crack open the old rating parts of my brain for this one.

Lloyd Chance: 30%. I feel like he's the likeliest of the Bandai-Namco characters we have left, at least out of the Tales characters. He's got popularity, he was previously acknowledged in regards to Super Smash Bros., and the series has been one many laid eyes on in regards to Smash before. But just because he's the likeliest doesn't mean he's actually likely. I have a feeling that like Terry, Pac-Man is considered the end-all be-all of Bandai-Namco's characters, so I think all Bamco reps are very unlikely.

Lloyd Want: 85%. Dude's pretty much my number 5 most wanted right now. Can't say I'd complain if he made it. I feel like he's got the moves, the playstyle and the content to want to back him, and his game is great. Well, yeah.

Kos-Mos and Chosen Undead I'll be abstaining on want for. I don't care to rate them.

Chance, though, for Kos-Mos is probably a 5%. She doesn't have enough advantages to overcome being considered non-profitable to Bamco. But moreover, I still believe Pac-Man is the end-all be-all of Namco so I doubt we'll get another rep from them. Anything could happen, but I don't see enough upsides to her that overcome her downsides.

I won't rate Undead's chances, though. Don't have enough to say on that.

Frisk x 5. Fell down the totem pole a bit, that's fine. Abstaining on predictions for all the Pokémon except Cinderace (18.30%) and Urshifu (19.21%). I expect those two to stand out head and shoulders above the rest.

Edit: Actually, I want to explain what I mean that "Pac-Man is the Bandai-Namco rep" and why I compare him to Terry so often. It's a combination of a few factors, one being how Bamco has gotten actually nothing since Smash 4's base game despite three entire newcomer pools coming and going, two being how Pac-Man and Terry are the ONLY two newcomers to come with content outside of their series out of the third parties (in fact most of Pac-Man's content isn't his.), and lastly both of them are packed with references to other franchises of their company to the extent that only a few major Bamco series aren't represented (and I imagine the same of SNK, but people think they have an even lower chance of addition). Combined these tell me that both of them are considered officially the definitive representative of their company.

 

[DanganZilla5]

I don't like to be that guy, but there has only been one rating within the past 20 hours or so. Maybe it's time to move on.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate the following 7 Sword/Shield Pokemon:

• Dragapult
• Toxitricity
• Urshifu
• Melmetal
• Cinderace
• Rillaboom
• Inteleon

Predict Elma and Lara Croft.

Everyone gets 10 noms today instead of the usual 5 since we're rating so many things at once.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Galar mood:

Spoiler: Gen 8 Pokemon

No way I'm posting 3 songs per character today.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Geez, that's a lot of Pokemon

I'm-a just going to copy my general rating for a Gen 8 Pokemon from several months ago and have them apply to all 7. The only thing's that's changed is Min Min getting pre-existing spirits in her spirit board, but I still think there's a difference between base game spirits and those added near the end of wave 1, so it stays low.

Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance: 1%

Why on earth is it that Ring Fit, Resident Evil, and Astral Chain pretty much are condemned to impossibility by 99% of the fanbase after the DLC spirit event, but Pokemon gets a special exception? If they wanted to put one in, they wouldn't have made the spirit event so late in the first place.

Want: 0%

Possibly one of my least wanted in terms of DLC. The idea of getting an 11th Pokemon (after getting 4 combined Pokemon newcomers and returning veterans in Ultimate alone), before so many other characters, both from series that are already in the game and from series that aren't, would piss me off to say the least. Not to mention Generation 8 itself is plagued by a sea of controversy unprecedented from any previous Pokemon generation (And I personally care about it far less than most of the previous gens). No thank you, Pokemon always gets a shill pick every game, they can more than wait for the next Smash. Incineroar already got to cut the line in front of 20 other more requested characters for the base game just because it was a Pokemon, we don't need the spoiled brat franchise to get another candy when there are so many other starving 1st Party series (and some 3rd Parties) that could use another character far more.

 

[Sari]

Since Min Min's spirit board reuses old spirits, I think the chances of us getting a Gen VIII Pokemon aren't as bad as they were before. Granted the fact there was a spirit event doesn't seem too good for a Gen VIII rep's chances, but I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt that Nintendo would make an exception for one of their biggest series and that the event was just some forced promotional thing.

As for my general thoughts on wanting a Galar Pokemon in Smash: I've been growing more onto Cinderace and have actually been considering getting Sword, but aside from that I don't care about any of the other Pokemon making it in. So for all of the people wanting Galar Pokemon in Smash that aren't Cinderace, avert your eyes from the 0% bombardments in my want scores below.

Also I'm not gonna bother rating Toxitricity or Dragapult because I could barely push myself to write all of this. Abstaining on both of those completely.

Actually scratch that since I have to rate them to get the extra noms.

Urshifu & Melmetal

Spoiler

Urshifu

Chance: 5%
It's one of the most recent Pokemon because of the Isle of Armor DLC. Could actually happen if Nintendo is dying to promote the most recent Pokemon thing (which sadly I can see them doing).

Want: 0%
I hate adding characters just for the sole purpose of being the most recent character and only that. Urshifu just doesn't interest me at all and I'd prefer most of the other Galar options.

---

Melmetal
Why are we still rating this thing?

Chance: 0%
Melmetal was the most recent Pokemon during that awkward period between Gen VII and VIII. That is... pretty much the only thing it has going for it. Well of course there's also...

...Wait no... Melmetal being the most recent Pokemon about 2 years ago is literally the only thing it has going for it...

Want: 0%
Ugly design and just a bore of a Pokemon. I'll take just about any other Pokemon over this thing.

Toxtricity & Dragapult

Spoiler

Toxitricity

Chance: 5%
One of the more likely non starter Pokemon. Toxitricity is fairly popular so I'd put its chance on roughly the same level as Urshifu's.

Want: 15%
Probably the only other Galar Pokemon I'd like to see make it in aside from Cinderace. Has a pretty good design plus a poison Pokemon would be cool.

---

Dragapult

Chance: 5%
It won a recent popularity poll so it is also one of the more likelier Galar Pokemon. That poll may have come in too late and Nintendo/Sakurai may have already decided on a more "safe" pick like one of the starters.

Want: 0%
It's design is actually pretty cool but I really wouldn't want this as a fighter. This just screams pokeball Pokemon material to me.

Galar Starters

Spoiler

Cinderace

Chance: 15%
I think Cinderace is the most likely Galar Pokemon. It's the most popular of the three starters, has the most prominent role in the anime right now (via Raboot), and is clearly meant to be the most marketed Pokemon by GameFreak. The main issue Cinderace has is that it's a bipedal fire-type Pokemon so Sakurai might want to go with someone else since we just got Incineroar.

Want: 75%
Easily my favorite of all of the Gen VIII Pokemon. Has one of my favorite Pokemon designs and being a bipedal fire-type kicker gives me Blaziken vibes. This is probably the only Sword/Shield Pokemon I'd actually really like to see make it into Smash.

---

Rillaboom

Chance: 10%
We haven't had a grass starter in a while and Rillaboom's drum could make it unique. These are all trivial reasons to add a character but I can see Sakurai doing just that, especially with the drum thing since he chose Incineroar over Decidueye for being more unique.

Want: 0%
Ugh please no. Easily one of the ugliest final starter evolutions in the entire Pokemon series. Also I absolutely hate the idea that we need a grass starter just because we haven't had one in a while.

---

Inteleon

Chance: 0.1%
Inteleon is the Dimitri/Claude of the Galar starters. Both Cinderace and Rillaboom just have so much more going for them when it comes to being more likely to get into Smash. I just can't see Inteleon getting in over those two.

Want: 0%
Nothing about Inteleon interests me at all. Again I'm not too crazy on getting another Pokemon character and if we had to get one I'd much prefer Cinderace.

Elma chance prediction: 7.00%
Lara Croft chance prediction: 20.00%

Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x10

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain. This fixed schedule is STILLL driving me crazy. I'm not rating 7 characters, buck off.

Elma: 35%
Lara Croft: 30%

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo x5
Sakura Shinguji ×5

 

[NintenRob]

I'm not going rate 7 characters, abstain

Nominate content from currently unreleased game x5

Prediction 10%

 

[SharkLord]

Cinderace, Inteleon, and Rillaboom
Chance: 30%. Pokemon is one of Nintendo's big juggernauts, no doubt about it. It's not hard to see why they'd want to promote it. That being said, Sword and Shield already got a Spirit Event, using it's mascots and the Pokemon heavily featured in the marketing. I'm not too confident in a SwSh Pokemon's chances, but if we're getting a rep from there, it's probably one of the starters. I'm ranking all three starters equally.

Toxicitry and Dragapult
Chance: 15%. They're popular, yes, but the DLC was finalized well before the poll. Maybe Sakurai could see something cool in them, but they're not that likely.

Urshifu
Chance: 10%. Between the base game, Isle of Armor, and Crown Tundra, IoA is the least profitable. The base game is what you need for the DLC and will make up the bulk of sales, while CT would be the most recent. IoA would have the least amount of spotlight, and it wouldn't make much sense to have a Pokemon from there.

Melmetal
Chance: 5%. They had their time in the limelight, and now that's passed. Don't see them happening.

Want for all but Urshifu: 40%. Don't care too much about most of them. They'd probably be able to do something cool, but I won't be sitting up and cheering for them.

Want for Urshifu: 15%. Out of all the characters I'm tired of hearing, Urshifu takes the cake. They're only pushed because "The shillmon!!" and half the time people don't actually want them. I'm sick of Urshifu and I don't want to see them in Smash.

Predictions
Elma: 36.92% (Probably getting a boost from her support thread)
Lara Croft: 12.63% (About to be sorely underrated)

Nomination: Klonoa x10

 

[Brodemmars]

I believe that Gen 8 has a good chance of being represented, the Spirit event only gave us 4 spirits and the fact that we haven't gotten any new gen 8 spirits since then, not even for the Isle of Armor DLC which would have been the perfect time to give us some, is quite suspicious.


Cinderace
Chance: 70%, the Cinderace line is quite popular and has gotten special treatment from the Pokemon Company in both the games and Anime, it seems pretty evident that they would push it to be the next playable character given the opportunity. Scorbunny also happens to be (Pokemon Producer) Junichi Masuda's favorite galar starter. With all of these factors in favor of Cinderace it's likely that Sakurai would add it if told to do so.
Want: 100%

Rillaboom
Chance: 10%, has some supporters who like it or just want another grass starter but I don't see Nintendo picking this character solely for those reasons nor do I see it as Sakurai's first choice when it comes to choosing characters based on moveset.
Want: 20%

Inteleon
Chance: 12%, maybe has a chance if Sakurai (who happens to own a copy of Goldeneye) wants a add a James Bond like character to Smash, otherwise I don't see it seriously happening when the Cinderace line being heavily promoted by TPC.
Want: 30%


Dragapult
Chance: 2.4%, due to the timing of when the Pokemon was officially revealed and when Sakurai/Nintendo made the final picks for FP2 I don't see this pokemon being a likely pick since it would be quite the gamble on their part to do so.
Want: 70%

Toxitricity
Chance: 2.5%, due to the timing of when the Pokemon was officially revealed and when Sakurai/Nintendo made the final picks for FP2 I don't see this pokemon being a likely pick since it would be quite the gamble on their part to do so.
Want: 20%

Urshifu
Chance: 3%, based on timing I don't expect it to happen unless TPC really wanted to add it just to promote the DLC.
Want: 6%

Melmetal
Chance: 0.1%, not really a Galar Pokemon so I don't see it happening
Want: 5%

 

[cashregister9]

Cinderace, Inteleon, Dragapult, Toxtricity Want-50%
Chance-50% Pokemon is big and popular and these are all good choices for that slot

RIllaboom Want-40%
Chance-50% Rillaboom I think has an equal chance as the others I just think a lot of people want Rillaboom because they are grass

Melmatal Want 30%
Chance 15% Melmetal was a last gen pokemon who isn't that relevant nowadays

Urshifu Want 30%
Chance 5% If ARMS couldn't have any post game characters as Spirits than I don't think that Urshifu who will be irrelevant come November-ish they do not seem likely, Pokemon is the only series I could see breaking this standard

 

[Calamitas]

Oomph. Okay, let's do this.

Ditto but it's made of metal and has evolved

Chance: 0%
I don't see Melmetal happening for one simple reason: It's not even a Pokémon from Sword and Shield. It was introduced in Pokémon GO, and made its first mainline appearance in Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee (and yes, those cound as mainline, the producers have said as much). Melmetal already had its big appearances by Ultimate's release, and I don't see them going back for a Pokémon in DLC like they did with Min Min.

Want: 0%
I don't really like this one. In general it just feels to me that mythical Pokémon past Generation 5 were just tossed out without any actual lore being attached to them, and while Melmetal does actually have a bit of that, it's still largely boring.

Baboom win. Baboom always win.

Chance: 40%
As far as Generation 8 Pokémon newcomer goes, any of the starters has the best shot, in my opinion. And while I doubt that Sakurai and his team really care for the arbitrary "complete the starter type trio!" fixation that fans have, Rillaboom does have some popularity to it, which should be enough to at least get it considered.

Want: 15%
Out of the three Galar starters, Rillaboom is actually my favourite fully-evolved one. This still doesn't change the fact that I found the games to be extremely mediocre and shallow, and therefore don't want a character from them.

"I don't know why you complain - it's not Fire/Fighting! Sure, it looks and acts like one, but it totally isn't, tehee!"

Chance: 30%
Cinderace has the second best shot, I'd say. The reason why I'm giving it a lower shot than Rillaboom is because unlike with Incineroar, I don't really see "football player" as a character archetype that Sakurai would desperately want to have included in Smash.

Want: 5%
Scorbunny was my starter in Sword, but I'm ultimately not too fond of its final evolution. Just how difficult can it be to have a fire starter that, just for once, remains quadrupedal for its final form? Ever since X and Y, it just feels like Gamefreak delibaretly constantly teases the possibility of a fire starter becoming fire/fighting, without actually doing it - despite having a design that might as well be one (outside of Delphox, mind you).
Small rant aside, still no majorly interested in a Sword/Shield rep, so low want score.

Inceleon

Chance: 20%
Not much to say about it at this point. It's a starter, so that helps its chances. But it's also got a not very interesting design and moveset potential, so I'm thinking it's the least likely.

Want: 0%
Really don't like its design. And again, no interest in a Sword/Shield rep.

He YELL

Chance: 20%
Toxtricity has a Gigantimax form which was possible already teased in Sun and Moon, and has some popularity to it. That's all the positives I'm seeing. It really remains to be seen whether's there's gonna be any sort of continued marketing push for it over the course of the generation.

Want: 5%
I liked it enough in Sword and Shield, but I don't really want it in Smash. Again, disappointing games are disappointing.

"Father, I crave violence"

Chance: 0%
I'm not seeing it. Sure, Dragapult has some popularity to it, but that has never really mattered when it comes to Pokémon choice for Smash. More likely than not we're gonna see a starter or a Pokémon that Gamefreak decides to push than a random pseudo-legendary that's reasonably popular.

Want: 0%
It just doesn't do much for me. I don't really care for Dragapult.

Single 30€ DLC purchase style

Chance: 0%
With Min-Min's inclusion, any of ARMS DLC characters were completely ignored. Therefore, I just really don't see any DLC-exclusive characters from any series making it in.

Want: 0%
Pokémon inclusions in general feel like sheer marketing choice shill picks, and a potential inclusion of Urshifu would really just take the cake. And eat it, too. Anyway, I have yet to get any of the DLC for Sword and Shield, since I want to wait until the Crown Tundra is out. What I've seen and heard about the Isle of Armour just. . . really doesn't sound like it's worth it.

Predictions:
Elma: 15.32% - Oh, I can already see how this will go. Me and some other supporters will give her reasonably decent scores (maybe even some outliers giving some way-too-high ones), while fans of a certain other character will just slam her with zeros. It'll be "fun".
Lara: 21.17%

Nominating Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x10

 

[fogbadge]

well well

several gen 8s and one gen 7

chances: well lets see, dragapult 50% i can see it happening, what with him recently being voted top gen 8 pokemon. of course thats based on the idea that sakurai used the pokemon of the year poll to fill in a place holder. toxitricity 50% his fans seem vocal enough that i can see it happening. though i feel he may be the lycanroc of this gen, dont know why. urshifu 25% it could happen but i dont think they promote the dlc over the games as a whole. even if they do surely hed have to contend with kubfu, garlar slowbro and anyone from crown tundra. melmetal 50% pokemon are still pushing pokemon go to the point that they have a character called goh in the anime now so i can believe they would suggest a pokemon who debuted in go. however there is not a lot of mobile gaming in ultimate, despite there being several nintendo mobile games at time of launch the only one with anything in smash is the one from the series sakurai has been accused of favouritism towards. cinderace 50% pokemon have been pushing him as well for reasons i cant grasp. certainly seems to be a degree of favouritism on his part. intelleon 25% and rillaboom 20% really theyre both in the same position. itelleon being voted more popular is the only reason i gave him an edge.

want: dragapult 50% not exactly hype inducing but id take it. hed be unique among the fighters and hed be our first ghost and pseudo legendary. toxitricity 0% i dont get what everyone sees in him. im not a fan of the punk rocker thing and i think he's over rated. urshifu 50% i guess hed be ok but id much rather kubfu. which form would he even be? melmetal 85% i quite like him and hed be great to be in smash. not cause i love go but purely cause i think hes a great pokemon. cinerace 0% truley the inceneroar of this gen. cinderace is based on something with a culture far more toxic than the gaming community and we should not be perpetuating it. rillaboom 50% not really bothered but id take it. quite curious to see what theyd do with the drum. intelleon 90% itd be nice to have the starter i picked. though i think his two previous form would make for more interesting movesets.

double noms today right? nate adams x 10

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Am I really going to rate 7 Sword/Shield Pokémon today?...

OF COURSE I AM! IT'S TIME FOR THE LIGHTNING ROUND, BABY!

Khameleonkazi
Popular and a neat idea for sure. However, we didn't get Garchomp in Brawl, Noivern in Smash 4 or Kokomodo whatever in the base game. They tend not go with the regional dragon when picking Pokémon and I don't see that changing. Dragapult is also never grounded so I don't know how that would work.
Chance: 0.1%

Inner peace
Is it really logical to sell a $30 dlc Pokémon which alot of people likely don't have instead of a Pokémon from base game SwSh. Heck, we don't even have Octolings playable yet so it might be telling. I have trouble seeing Sakurai say: "Yes, if you want to be more familiar with Urshifu, please buy Pokémon Sword or Pokémon Shield for $60 and then $30 on top of that for the Isle of Armour dlc. Great value, yes."
Chance: 0.2%

Nutsnbo-
WHY ARE WE STILL RATING THIS THING?! THE SUNMOON ANIME IS DONE! IT HAD ITS TIME! WHO STILL CARES ABOUT IT ANYMORE?!
Chance: 0%

Poison jam
Heard this guy was the Lucario of gen 8 or something I dunno. Wake me up when it has its own movie where it shakes its own booty. From what I know it isn't anywhere close to that level yet, it still has to proof itself (Not as if that matters to TPC). Also I personally don't see us not getting a starter if we do get a gen 8 mon.
Chance: 0.5%

EXPAND DRUM
Baboom win? Yeah, if TPC, Nintendo and Sakurai cared about type coverage which they don't. Heard the Grookey line hasn't appeared in the anime yet which isn't a good sign.
Chance: 0.75%

Gex
Note to self: never drink tap water at Matsuda's house or go up to TPC and ask for a good game.
Anyway, I don't have much to say for it. I haven't heard about it not appearing in the anime but who's paying attention? Not me. Amongst all the mons we're rating now, one clearly stands above the rest, Intelleon included.
Chance: 1%

Small Chungus
This son of a ***** is without a doubt the likeliest. Its the most popular of the Galar starters because of one reason alone: the anime. I don't watch that **** but judging by all the marketing the Scorbunny line is the prominent mon of the 2nd main character whose name I'm not gonna Google. Almost every Pokemon character in Smash aside from the trainer and pichu I think was relevant to the anime at the time of their inclusion and I don't see that changing.
Chance: 3%
I still hold the Spirit event against these games so that's why I'm still keeping Cinderace low on chance.

Want: 0% FOR ALL THESE MFS!
Seriously, I may prefer some to others, like how I like Intelleon the best of the Galar starters (despite me still being disappointed with its desing, seriously it looks like I can snap it like a twig and what's with the spandex) but I still have nul interest in all of these due to the principle of it. Sword and Shield are games I don't wanna buy nor do I want them advertised to me. I don't want more Pokémon with only 5 slots left especially not from the blandest and most rushed games in the main series. I'm done with post 3ds era Pokémon and hope we aren't rating anymore Gen 8 Pokémon after this.

Elma: 8.42%
Lara Croft: 20.76%
Deltarune content x10

 

[Lyncario]

So, the 7 Pokemons day is today. I might as well get this over with.

Melmetal
Chance: 0%
The seventh generation is over, and so are the Sun and Moon Pokemon anime and the small era of Let's Go being the only Pokemon games on the Switch. If Melmetal was going to join at any time, it would have been in fighter pass 1, but now it's too late for him. Just like Lyncaroc and Mimikyu, he lost his chances to be the gen 7 rep to Incineroar. There's no reason for him to join Smash, no matter how you try to spin it.
Want: 15%
Oh boy, a Pokemon from the Pokemon games I dislike the most and who would be asluggish heavyweight not even that fun to play when you remember we already have Ganondorf and Incineroar to do that but way better. I have no reason to want that thing, especialy when way cooler steel types like Bisharp exist.

The Sword and Shield full Team
Chance: 0%
They are all rated at the same time and with the same score for one reason. In Byleth's resentation, Sakurai said that this presentation was made in November, and that the second fighter pass was already decided. In November, we also got the spirit event for Sword and Shield. Sakurai and his team already knew what the second fighter pass would be at that time, and if a Pokemon would be a part of it. You can argue that the spirit event does not include every possible Pokemon that could join Smash, but even then this spirit event would be worthles and not worth making, and we know that Sakurai and his team have a smaller budget for dlc, so it would make no sense for them to use any money on somehting like that if a gen 8 Pokemon was going to join.

Want
Cinderace: 55%
Cinderace is a cool Pokemon and is very fun to use in game. Cinderace's playstyle would also likely be flashy and cool, meaning that it gets some cookie points for that to get an above average rating from me (35% = average rating from me). But otherwise, most of what Cinderace can do is already done by the football item.
Rilaboom: 50%
I ended up not liking Rilaboom as much as I though at first, but the moves t got in the Isle of Armor dlc makes him way better in my opinion, though I still prefer Cincerace overall.
Intelleon: 45%
I have nothing against any of the Galarian starter, but Intelleon is the less interesting one to me after Rilaboom got the dlc moves. I mean, a James Bond water lizard is a cool idea in concept, but it's very hard to pull off. And Gamefreak made it be alright. That's it, Intelleon is just alright.
Dragapult: 70%
Now, that's one of the coolest gen 8 mons there is. A dragon ghost dual type is something that is found only on Giratina and Dragapult's line, which is already very cool in itself. Also Dragapult is very cool to use, not to forget how cool it's design is.
Toxicitry: 70%
Just like for Dragapult, it's cool, it has an unique (or almost unique for Dragapult) dual type, and it's fun to use. I wouldn't be bothered by either joining Smash.
Urshifu: 35%
Meh, I don't really like this Pokemon all that much, bu I also have nothing against it, so neutral rating.

Predictions:
Lara Croft: 28.9%
Elma: 2.4%

Nominations: SMT rep x10

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Note in advance: I haven’t played Sword/Shield and know very little about the anime. Since these seem to be the main factors in deciding Pokémon, I’m abstaining on chance. I do know the designs of the characters and have watched some trailers so I do know the characters, so here we go with want scores.

Kung Fu Panda
Want: 20%
Urshifu is the most cynical Smash speculation has ever been. Sure, Pokés have had shill qualities before, but bombarding Urshifu to a frontrunner seems to be a product of the groaning inevitability people seem to see a new gen Pokémon as. With a nice and bipedal set potential and that sweet sweet shill recency boosted to eleven, our Kung Fu Panda is the product of what we‘ve come to expect from Pokémon.
Stance-changing is decently fun I guess, but for the rest he‘d be a bipedal brawler and I hope we can expect better from Pokémon.

De Blob
Want: 10%
Oh yeah, he’s a monstrosity, but that is what gives him that undoubtable flair that makes it worth revisiting the Poké-pool every game. Otherwise, yeah it’s amazingly ugly and not even that meant for unique mechanics. Seems to be mostly a Hulk Smash type but made in Spore.

The Dragon that Shoots His Kids
Want: 40%
Let’s look at Dragapult. Floating at all times? Check. Intimidating? Check. Using his minions to do his bidding? Check. Ghostly appeal? Check. Do I want King Boo to do all this? Check.
Plus, that floating like that is just gonna look awkward in motion unless they make it really smooth and have him glide through the air. I think animation-wise he could be really interesting because of that.

Watt ya looking at, punk?
Want: 30%
I like Toxtricity’s design. I think the poison-electric combo is just there to be weird and I don’t think he does anything with the combo, but that works for him in some way. Beyond that, I don’t think the guitar style lends itself for Smash. The low-amp high-amp stuff could be interesting though, but I’m drawing a blank as to what else he could do with it.
If he had a gameplay hook aside from the form changing this want score would double but so far his ecclectic design kinda stands on his own without much stuff to do with it.

Massive Hero Soccer Guy
Want: 60%
Yeah, sue me. I like the design and I like the idea of Pyroball. Sure, it really depends on if they pull off that specific gimmick, but I think if pulled off right he could be a really interesting character. Again, sadly stuck on a middle-of-the-road design but even then I like it enough.

You Only Spy Twice
Want: 40%
On one hand, a sniper style could work really well and could be really unique. On the other hand, out of all the Pokémon, picking the water-based amphibia that sneaks around is....weird. I think animation-wise, he’d be one of the better options as he slithers around, but it‘s an odd pick for a game that already features Greninja.

Oof Baboof
Want: 70%
Oh man if only the designs in this game could be good.
Rillaboom has a wonderful kit, with visually unique flair through his grass typing, a cool playstyle with his stage control drum and a fun personality as the laid-back drummer of the gang.

Non-videogame Mii Costume x10

Elma: 7.88%
Lara Croft: 18.99%

 

[fogbadge]

Am I really going to rate 7 Sword/Shield today?...

OF COURSE I AM! IT'S TIME FOR THE LIGHTNING ROUND, BABY!

Khameleonkazi
Popular and a neat idea for sure. However, we didn't get Garchomp in Brawl, Noivern in Smash 4 or Kokomodo whatever in the base game. They tend not go with the regional dragon when picking Pokémon and I don't see that changing. Dragapult is also never grounded so I don't know how that would work.
Chance: 0.1%

Inner peace
Is it really logical to sell a $30 dlc Pokémon which alot of people likely don't have instead of a Pokémon from base game SwSh. Heck, we don't even have Octolings playable yet so it might be telling. I have trouble seeing Sakurai say: "Yes, if you want to be more familiar with Urshifu, please buy Pokémon Sword or Pokémon Shield for $60 and then $30 on top of that for the Isle of Armour dlc. Great value, yes."
Chance: 0.2%

Nutsnbo-
WHY ARE WE STILL RATING THIS THING?! THE SUNMOON ANIME IS DONE! IT HAD ITS TIME! WHO STILL CARES ABOUT IT ANYMORE?!
Chance: 0%

Poison jam
Heard this guy was the Lucario of gen 8 or something I dunno. Wake me up when it has its own movie where it shakes its booty. From what I know it isn't anywhere close to that level yet, it still has to proof itself (Not as if that matters to TPC). Also I personally don't see us not getting a starter if we do get a gen 8 mon.
Chance: 0.5%

EXPAND DRUM
Baboom win? Yeah, if TPC, Nintendo and Sakurai cared about type coverage which they don't. Heard the Grookey line hasn't appeared in the anime yet which isn't a good sign.
Chance: 0.75%

Gex
Note to self: never drink tap water at Matsuda's house or go up to TPC and ask for a good game.
Anyway, I don't have much to say for it. I haven't heard about it not appearing in the anime but who's paying attention? Not me. Amongst all the mons we're rating now, one clearly stands above the rest, Intelleon included.
Chance: 1%

Small Chungus
This son of a ***** is without a doubt the likeliest. Its the most popular of the Galar starters because of one reason alone: the anime. I don't watch that **** but judging by all the marketing the Scorbunny line is the prominent mon of the 2nd main character whose name I'm not gonna Google. Almost every Pokemon character in Smash aside from the trainer and pichu I think was relevant to the anime at the time of their inclusion and I don't see that changing.
Chance: 3%
I still hold the Spirit event against these games so that's why I'm still keeping Cinderace low on chance.

Want: 0% FOR ALL THESE MFS!
Seriously, I may prefer some to others, like how I like Intelleon the best of the Galar starters (despite me still being disappointed with its desing, seriously it looks like I can snap it like a twig and what's with the spandex) but I still have nul interest in all of these due to the principle of it. Sword and Shield are games I don't wanna buy nor do I want them advertised to me. I don't want more Pokémon with only 5 slots left especially not from the blandest and most rushed games in the main series. I'm done with post 3ds era Pokémon and hope we aren't rating anymore Gen 8 Pokémon after this.

Elma: 8.42%
Lara Croft: 20.76%
Deltarune content x10

wow and i thought my dig at football was mean

 

[YoshiandToad]

Dragon his heels
Chance: 0.1%
Popular for sure with fans, but popularity doesn't always equal playable.
Dragapult has no presence in the anime which if we're honest is usually the thing that the Pokémon Company and Gamefreak use to push what they deem the mascots of the generation. Lucario had a movie, Incineroar and Greninja were Ash's Pokémon, Jigglypuff was heavily involved in the series when she was added and even Pichu had a bunch of shorts dedicated to it.
Dragapult hasn't got anything like that so I cannot see it happening.

Want: 0%
It's just the psuedo legendary of the moment if I'm honest...and ironically Dragonite, the gen one psuedo legendary is actually in Ash's team at current.

Toxic opinions
Chance: 0.1%
Same as Dragapult, no anime importance or showcase, no show IMO. Apart from being popular with Pokémon fans, it doesn't have much going for it.

Want: 5%
I prefer it's design to Dragapult, and it'd be neat to have a non starter as a Pokémon fighter for once. That's literally it though. Can't say I'm too invested since we have two electric Pokémon already on the roster.

Bearly acceptable
Chance: 15%
Something Gamefreak may want to push. DLC. Urshifu's certainly got a shot as the latest legend, and being relatively popular with fans. Again though, no anime appearance hurts it, and if anything Gamefreak may push Zarude over it since it also has a movie coming out.

Want: 0%
I see a lot of people suggest Urshifu could be a stance Pokemon, but it's not like it can change between the two stances in game. It's like claiming Eevee could evolve into it's various evolutions in battle and then back, which is obviously something it's incapable of. Add that this would seem like the most blatant advertisement pick ever, more so than the rest of the Pokemon we're rating today, and it's a big fat zero from me. Also it's pre-evolution is just nicer looking.

METAL GEAAAAAARRRRR
Chance: 0.1%
None. It's last gen. It's not even the latest mythical Pokemon which is now Zarude. Melmetal as far as I'm aware was never popular despite it being pushed by Game Freak to try and advertise Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee. Unlike the above mons though Melmetal has had a role in the anime as one of Ash's Pokemon, so I'll give a 0.1% chance for that.

Want: 0%
It screams Pokeball Pokemon to me. It's design is pretty unappealing to me too overall.

Bunny Boiler
Chance: 55%
Okay so...Goh has a Raboot in the anime. It's his main Pokemon. Goh, for the uninitiated is the deutagonist of the latest anime series and whilst Ash has finally stopped being used exclusively to promote the latest mons with his team full of old fan favourites like Lucario, Gengar, Dragonite, Goh has currently got both Raboot(Cinderace's pre-evolution) as his partner and Sobble on his team.

Scorbunny/Raboot for his part is basically Goh's Pikachu. So I can see a scenario where Cinderace(or more unlikely one of it's pre-evolutions) gets in very easily.

Want: 50%
I'm not the biggest fan of Cinderace's design, I don't hate it it's just a bit meh to me, although I do like both Scorbunny and Raboot's.

If it's going to be a Gen 8 Pokemon, it's going to be either him or Intelleon IMO at current...lest Goh also catches a Grookey which puts Rillaboom up as an option. He's another anthromorphic fire user, but he doesn't really fight like Incineroar so I don't see the issue of it in Smash.

Gorilla's in the missed (opportunity)
Chance: 10%
Right now nobody has Grookey. In fact Grookey is dragging it's heels in the anime with nobody having it...although I don't doubt it will eventually join either Goh or Ash as the grass starter tends to be an anime staple.

As of this moment though I doubt Rillaboom will be pushed forward unless Sakurai insists on the need to balance Greninja and Incineroar with a new grass starter.

Want: 15%
I like Rillaboom, albeit far less than Scorbunny's line. Just feels like we'd be adding a grass type for the sake of adding a grass type. Being a gorilla drummer makes me worry they'll try and re-add DK's old horrific Final Smash and repurpose it for Rillaboom though. Please no.

James Pond
Chance: 25%
Goh's caught a Sobble and that means it's a possibility.

Sakurai also once considered adding James Bond in Melee but due to realistic guns and copyright issues with both Rare, the film industry and the rights to Pierce Brosnan's likeness that was a no go. Intelleon could allow Sakurai to re-explore his idea for a spy style character without any of that pesky red tape.

Want: 13%
I'm curious how it'll work. I'm not 100% sure but I know Sobble has invisibility camoflauge which I feel will translate strangely to Smash if Intelleon can also perform it. Overall it's the starter I'm least invested in.

Predictions:
Elma: 6%
Lara Croft: 13%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x 10

 

[RouffWestie]

Dragapult + Toxtricity + Melmetal + Rillaboom
Chance: 0.01%
These Pokemon aren't in the running from my point of view. They aren't pushed often in any official media so I can't see Nintendo even considering any of these mons. Melmetal almost had some time in the spotlight, but it was kinda short lived and pointless in the end. Most of them are only acknowledged in the Smash community because the Smash community brought them up in the first place.
Want: 0%
None of them are that interesting to me. Beyond that, I'm not a huge Pokemon fan so I could live without another Pokemon addition. Even if I were forced to choose a new Pokemon, I'd probably just pick another Gen 1 rep at random.

Intelleon
Chance: 10%
The small chance Intelleon has is if Nintendo wanted took the literal approach of " was popular, therefore this cool water-type will be too!" As possible as that is, I think Nintendo would more likely go for either Cinderace or the Urshifus. I'm not putting it past them to do something that ridiculously literal after seeing how they've operated for the past decade.
Want: 0%
I like Greninja more when I look at Intelleon. Greninja has covered the concept of a fast and sneaky water-type anthro so thoroughly that I struggle to see what Intelleon could do to without overlapping Greninja in too many ways. It isn't even really what I'd call an amazing concept in the first place.

Urshifu
Chance: 15%
The last time I rated him, I did say there's no reason Nintendo would want to pick it over Cinderace. However, I've realized something; it could easily beef up the roster count while taking an incredibly small amount of effort due to the forms sharing the same model. Now that doesn't make him incredibly more likely, since it's still not in an obvious marketing position, but it's something that I could see Nintendo doing to save time and money.
Want: 0%
Like I said last time, it's an extremely derivative and overdone concept (animal, but with a human fighting style!!) I already don't have any interest in modern Pokemon. Urshifu is just a reminder of why.

Cinderace
Chance: 90%
One of the clear frontrunners for the pass in my opinion. It's pretty much a business as usual pick. Nintendo is pretty transparent about what they aim to push, and even if they can be unpredictable at times, when it comes to Pokemon there's been more than a few indicators that it's not as deep or coincidental as some tend to say it is.
Want: 5%
Same as I said before, one of the more tolerable modern Pokemon, but still not a very inspired concept. It's a rabbit , but it plays a sport; it just makes me say, "eh, whatever." I wouldn't be jumping out of my seat for it, but it's almost as good as some of the older starters.

 

[BowserKing]

Gen 8 Starters

Chance: 25% All three are some of the most likely Pokémon reps to Ben in the ga,e. Rillaboom, due to being a Grass Starter, Cinderace for moveset potential and Intelleon also for moveset potential. It seems like a good choice as well.

Want: 90%. Of the three, I want Cinderace (my starter choice in Shield), and Cinderace is fun to play as in Shield, so it would be fun to play in Smash as well. Rillaboom and Intelleon would be cool to have as well, but to keep this short, I would be proud if Cinderace gets in,

Melmetal

Chance: 10%. Melmetal’s chance is lower for multiple reasons, but that should not make it impossible for it to join Smash. Besides, a Pokémon with metal abilities would be a good choice.

Want: 70%. Melmetal would be fun to play as, and I can see it fight Megaman and R.O.B in battle. Overall, Melmetal would be a great Pokémon for this game.

Urshifu, Toxtricity and Dragapult

Chance: 20% (for Urshifu) and 25% (for the latter 2). Urshifu’s chance is lower due to being DLC for Sword and Shield. But it still has a good chance. Meanwhile, Toxtricity and Dragapult are very popular choices, so their chances are higher.

Want: 70 for Urshifu and 85% for the latter 2. All 3 would be fun to play as, but of those 3, Toxtricity would be my main choice. Overall, the Pokémon’s of this day would be great choices for Smash.

Prediction: Elma (20%) and Lara (15%)

Noms: 5 for Boss: Ender Dragon

 

[DanganZilla5]

I was going to abstain altogether but screw it.

Melmetal

Chance: 0%

GoodGrief described Pokemon perfectly: It's a train that is constantly moving and never stops for anyone. Gen 7 is over. If we are going to get another Pokemon, it will be from Gen 8. If we miraculously get another Gen 7 Pokemon, there is competition, particularly from Decidueye who almost got in.

Want: 20%

I tend to lean toward tank characters so Melmetal would be up my alley. We don't have a mystical Pokemon playable in Smash and I dig his design. But even after recently playing Pokken Tournament I'm still lukewarm toward any Pokemon inclusion as I think we got enough playable Pokemon.

_______________________

Dragapult

Chance: 1.50%

This Pokemon doesn't have much going for it aside from some popularity. It has no presence in the anime which is a big hit and to my knowledge is not getting pushed that much. Yeah, can't see this happening.

Want: 18%

It definitely stands out design-wise, it's a pseudo-legendary Pokemon, and has good moveset potential. I would be fine with it despite it being another Pokemon addition.

_________________

Toxtricity

Chance: 4%

It is one of the more popular Pokemon from Gen 8 and it does have a gigantamax form which I believe is a good sign. Still has no anime presence though so unless if popularity is going to be a big factor in choosing a Pokemon, I can't see him getting in over the starters or a shill pick like Urshifu.

Want: 18%

The design is interesting and I dig that it is a poison/electric type which could make for a fun moveset. Still a Pokemon though so I wouldn't be that hype for it.

________________

Urshifu

Chance: 40%

I have no doubt that we will very likely get a Pokemon during this pass. It will be the Byleth of this pass. Even if Pokemon doesn't need the marketing, they will still want to put in a Pokemon because it's the biggest media franchise. It will sell well regardless because it's Pokemon. With Urshifu being the mascot of the Isle of Armor, it is a prime shill pick with it's competition mainly being the starter Pokemon and the Crown Tundra mascot Calyrex.

Want: 8%

Just because I'm expecting it doesn't mean I'm a supporter of it. It is a legendary Pokemon but other than that this character doesn't interest me much. I'm also hoping that it doesn't get in just so that my pessimism can be proven wrong.

__________________

The Gen 8 Starters

Chance: 25%

This will be the opportunity to address why I think a Gen 8 Pokemon is likely despite the spirit event. The thing is, that spirit event only covered the base game legendaries, signature bird, signature rodent, and the first forms of the starters. It might just be my pessimism, but I still think that we could get a Pokemon even though by that time the selection for Fighter Pass 2 was already decided, according to Sakurai who recorded the Byleth presentation in November if I remember correctly. So while the starter Pokemon spirits are definitely a hit towards the chances of us getting a starter, it is only the first forms of them. Isn't it a bit suspicious to any of you that they only used the first forms of the starters and not the final forms?

Now onto the individual Pokemon, I think it could go either way. Rillaboom is very popular but as we saw from the base game Pokemon, popularity didn't win. Cinderace and Intelleon to my knowledge has more presence in the anime, at least so far, so Nintendo might want to choose one of them. I am thinking Cinderace might be chosen but Sakurai might want to go with one of the other two since he already chose a fire type Pokemon for the base roster. Overall, the three starters encompass different styles and have different reasons to be included so I can't say that there is a frontrunner, assuming that we do end up with a starter Pokemon. We could easily end up with a shill Pokemon for the DLC.

Want for Intelleon: 15%

The design doesn't interest me much but the fact that it is a secret agent archetype is really cool to me. But it is not my most wanted starter despite it having good moveset potential.

Want for Cinderace - 1%

We already had a new fire-type Pokemon for this game so I am not interested in another one. Cinderace just doesn't interest me in terms of design or moveset and I would prefer either of the other two starters.

Want for Rillaboom - 25%

If I had to choose a Gen 8 Pokemon, Rillaboom would be one of my top choices. Smash needs more grass-type Pokemon and I think Rillaboom is really cool from a design and moveset standpoint.

Predictions:
Elma - 10%
Lara Croft - 21%

Noms: Ezio x10

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Hmm....were going all Gen 8 here eh?

Melmetal

Chances: 0% Want 1%

Gen 7 is over and already have a rep (Incineroar) plus already have a steel type in the game (Lucario). Had this came out around Ultimate's release date, I can see metal getting a bit of edge. He's out for me

Dragapult

Chances: 0% Want 1%

This is a very unique fighter here. Floating, ranged fighter, etc. For some reason, I have a feeling Sakurai isn't picking him as he's not popular enough for Smash. It would be nice for Smash to finally have a Dragon type in the game as well.

Toxitricity

Chances: 5% Want 100%

I'm gonna be biased here. Toxi is one of my favorite Gen 8 Pokemon and his moves has potential. While it's true we have Electric and Poison types already, Toxi can add something we've yet to have: sound based moves and guitar types. We've yet to have Chorus Kids in the game which opens more potential for Toxi to hit the musical waves in attacks. He's pretty popular when he first came out and used often. I'm not sure about the competitive scene but I think he has the highest chances of non-Gen 8 starters.

Urshifu

Chances: 45% Want 10%

I feel Urshifu is gonna be a promotional character similar to Roy, Byleth, etc. If we're getting a Pokemon, this one has the highest chances. Plus fighting type with martial arts would be cool to see. I'd like for it to be used for another Pokemon but this one seems most realistic.

Gen 8 Starters

Chances: 30%

Want: Intellion 10%, Cinderace 2%, Rillaboom 30%

We already have two fire types in the game (Charizard and Incineroar). I don't see a reason for Cinderace to take it other than them pushing for Cinderace in the anime because

Spoiler

Goh will have Raboot evolve into Cinderace eventually around the same time as Ash's Riolu to Lucario

. Intellion would be interesting to see with water type moves added to sneaks. Downfall is we have two water types as well (Squirtle and Greninja) which hurts Intellion's chances. Rillaboom I can see the best coming with being Grass final evolutions that we've yet to achieve and adding grass/musical attacks to his moves.

Prediction

Elma - 13%
Lara Croft - 18.5%

Nominations: I can't really think of any to nominate now

 

[GoodGrief741]

Okay, time to squeeze 28 sentences from "It had a Spirit Event. Pls no more Pokemon"

Melmetal

Double zeroes. I like its design but not that much that I'd want it playable. Its time came and went. It's not even a Sword and Shield Pokemon, so I don't think it even benefits from the shill power that gets Pokemon in. Unless they want a rep to specifically promote Pokemon GO, which I doubt.

All the others

Also double zeroes

To all of them goes the same maxim: if they were planning to add a character from Sword and Shield, it wouldn't have gotten a Spirit Event. And I don't want any more Pokemon because there's too many. Plus I don't trust Sakurai to pick them given our last get was Incineroar. Plus even if I wanted a Pokemon, I'd infinitely prefer one from an older gen to break from this cycle of marketing. Plus, I don't like the designs for most of these. Now for the specifics:

Cinderace

I don't like its design that much. I prefer Scorbunny. I'm tired of starter final stages always getting picked. Doesn't even seem like it'd have a super compelling moveset.

Rillaboom

Probably one of the worst designs for a starter I've seen in a while. This one is probably the one I'd hate the most because any traction it gained is a combination of grass-type tokenism and stupid monkey memes. And like Cinderace, I'm having a lot of trouble envisioning it in Smash. Seems like it'd be slow and unwieldy with that big ass drum.

Intelleon

This one is a bit better in the moveset potential department. Meaning it would play as "generic human spy moveset with water special effects". Sad to see that's what Pokemon design's devolved to, but yeah. Either way, another pet peeve of mine is how starters are all anthros nowadays, and I haven't mentioned it yet, so here it is.

Urshifu

Probably the worst possible outcome. A shill rep for DLC for the most recent game. Also a generic martial arts moveset that would probably be better served on many of the actual iconic martial artists. And what the hell even is that design, keep it away from me.

Toxtricity

Now we're entering "would be a good choice if we didn't have 10 freaking Pokemon" territory. I'll admit that I don't exactly love Toxtricity's design. But it at the very least doesn't look engineered for me to like it. And I'd at least like him for not being a starter and for being a popular pick.

Dragapult

First time looking into Dragapult, all I knew is that it's been voted number 1 most popular SwSh Pokemon. Now that I know what it is, and, yeah, I get it. It's a great design, and it's a freaking jet that shoots its children. There's no way the Pokemon Company will promote this one though, so it's pretty much doomed to be a fan favorite and not much else.

One last thing: my preferred Sword and Shield rep is Zacian. But that's the one everyone disqualifies because it was one of the Spirits. Not sure why I mentioned it, I got all the sentences I need, but there you go. Dog with a sword, what will he do?

Noms: ****ing Tidus X10
Elma: perpetually overrated 19.74%
Lara: perpetually underrated 21.69%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Lloyd Irving/Chosen Undead/KOS MOS pre-Dragapult/Toxtricity/Urshifu/Melmetal/Cinderace/Rillaboom/Inteleon

Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x265
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x260
Tidus x235
Nate Adams x215
[Rerate] Ezio x205
Shuichi Saihara x191
Moogle x175

150 - 101

Alex Mason x145
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x140
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x140
[Rerate] Frisk x140
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x121
The Stretchers x120
Echo: Xion (Sora) x120
Sakura Shinguji x120
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x120
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x120
D.Va x115
Red (Angry Birds) x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Billy Hatcher x110
Klonoa x110

100 - 51

Proto Man x100
Concept: Deltarune content x91
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x75
Boss: Ender Dragon x73
Hades (Kid Icarus) x70
Amiya (Arknights) x70
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x67
The Terrarian x65
Concept: Rocket League rep x65
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x64
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x55
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x55
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x55

50 - 25

Giygas x50
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x50
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x50
Gooigi x50
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x50
Dr. Goomba Tower x50
Magolor x50
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x50
John Marston x49
Jin Sakai x49
Stage: Bowser's Castle x40
Concept: Fortnite character x40
[Rerate] Monokuma x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
Ghirahim x35
Boss: Rayquaza x34
Concept: Returning stages x31
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
Yoshimitsu x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Echo (Olimar) x26
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25

Under 25

Black Shadow x20
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x20
Lora and Jin x20
Concept: Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed x20
Vi (Bug Fables) x20
Chell x18
Zeraora x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Cynthia x15
Taranza x11
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x10
Tetra x10
Demi-fiend x10
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x7
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Young Wizard (Wizard101) x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Kass x1

Ezio climbs past 200 noms.

Mii Costume: Alex Kidd reaches 50 noms. It's now safe from the purge.

Echo (Olimar) crosses 25 noms.

DrifloonEmpire You gave 5 noms to Prince of All Cosmos and 5 to Zavok, but you didn't have extra noms. Which one will it be?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Just as a reminder, if you want the full 10 noms ya got to rate everyone. You still get 5 just for participating or abstaining today.

Iron Giant
2% Chance

Melmetal is in a weird spot where it is kind of a gen 7 mon, but it kind of isn't. The fact you could not get it in USUM and it does not seem to be classified as an Alolan mon in Go (for now) points to it not, but the SuMo anime points to yes. The fact it reps go and has a Gigantimax form helps it not be dead in the water at least.

70% Want

It's grown on me. Getting one in game for Sword (traded a crappy trophy shiny for one) helped me appreciate it more. He is a big doof, and the anime sold me on it not just being a boring hulking mass of metal. I guess it is lower because there are other gen 8 pokemon I would prefer.

Brother Bear

1% Chance

I am gonna be blunt, I do not see it happening. For starters, I doubt that GF would want just the IoA repped. The fact Crown Tundra exists also makes me skeptical, since why would you only want half of the DLC repped? To me, this seems like pure flavor of the month. Expect it to drop off in a few months once Calyrex is the new hotness.

10% Want

I do not hate the black bear, but unlike Melmetal I did not grow an attachment to it. Ironic, since IoA is all about getting to know Kubfu and an attachment. I got more of an attachment training a Melmetal I traded for than this thing. It is fun/broken in battle, and the idea of a stance change gimmick is cool... except Min Min already does it and it kinda goes against canon.


Sasquatch
2% Chance
Rillaboom did not win the popularity contest unfortunately, which means his saving grace is moveset potential. I think the idea of a music fighter would appeal to Sakurai in some way, although I think a certain other pokemon would take priority...

80% Want

Which is a shame because I lowkey love this thing. It is a big dumb gorilla with a drum, and I think it would be a blast to play as. It also does not help it has the best Gigantimax form in the game.

The 2nd worst starter of all time, Tepig is no longer lonely anymore
0.1% Chance

There were two reasons this thing was not on the initial schedule. For starters, I think it has basically no chance. I struggle to see a scenario where it is picked. I could see Sakurai liking a drum gimmick, but Intelleon I struggle to see being chosen, Call it a gut hunc.

0% Want

The other reason is I despise this thing. I was going to go into Sword with a Sobble... until I saw this gross abomination. Rillaboom was my first choice. Cinderace grew on me using one to battle other people, and getting a good one myself helped that. I got a Sobble from wonder trade and used it on my in game team, and hated it the whole time. It did its job but I despise this thing. Its gross pot belly, its slender face, the leggings. All of it. Awful. Trash.

Ronaldo
15% Chance

I will now talk about the three that in my opinion are the frontrunners. I know others are not as confident in Gen 8 due to the spirit event, but I do not know if it is as safe to say spirit events deconfirm. The timing is not great, but hey stranger things have happened. I guess this is the cynic in me saying that they might end up shilling Gen 8 because what else is Nintendo going to shill right now? Think of all the upcoming switch games... Yeah. It makes sense they would shill for a game as successful as Gen 8 (even if I have major gripes with it). It also does not help that it would make sense given the two first party DLC characters we got so far. Both Byleth and Min Min do a very specific job: promote what is new on the Switch. In this sense, I think Gen 8 as a whole has a solid chance of getting a fighter, given its success. There are other potential first party picks if you want to promote something on the Switch, but Pokemon is the biggest. Its sales are monsterous.

Now Cinderace has a few legs up. It is decently popular. Now normally, I do not factor in popularity as highly. I mean, the same official poll that is our main barometer has three pokemon we all speculated on more than Incineroar. But here, I think the timing makes sense. Wait to see what would please the most people, and set aside a slot for a Gen 8 pokemon. This would not be too out of the ordinary for Nintendo, we know that in the past for both Greninja and Incineroar the slot was for a new pokemon, not them specifically. At the very least, Cinderace has one key boon over the other two frontrunners: it will have a key role in the anime, as Go will have one most likely. I am a bit jaded on the anime as a barometer though, if ya remember my dog in the race.

50% Want

Ehh, take it or leave it with me. I do like Cinderace and it grew on me a lot. At first I hated the bunny, but over time it has become one of my favorite Gen 8 mons.

That does not mean I would want it in smash. The simple answer is I think it would be really boring to play as. Even if Incineroar showed that a Fire type does not need to have that much Fire Flavor, I think Cinderace just does not cut it for me. It just bores me.

The Clash

40% Chance

Now this seems like the pick if they made one they would go with initially. Toxtricity has everything it needs to be the perfect shillmon. It has a unique design that is quite anthropomorphic. One is given to you for free. It has a gigantimax form. It also is super popular. It even has a special end credits bit. This thing is clearly what GF had in mind as the most popular mon for this gen, and that helps it.

90% Want
Well this thing would be a racket to play as. The idea of a sound based fighter seems so appealing to me, and Toxtricity does that well. It seems so easy to put into smash. Probably my second favorite gen 8 mon. Only reason it is not higher is I have one I would rather want.

Smaug
35% Chance

Yeah, I am the outlier here. The fact this thing took over the Pokemon Day polls makes me think this thing might get the nod. For reference, it got 11th. 11th. While Toxtricity did quite well at 14th, this thing got 11th. For a new mon to place that high, it has to be evaluated pretty strongly. While Dragapult has a bit of an irregular body shape, it is not unreasonable to work with. Yes it flies, but it has hands. I just think it has a solid shot.

100% Want

Hell yes! My favorite Gen 8 mon by a country mile. I think it would be awesome to play as. While I am lukewarm to getting Gen 8 in smash (maybe the right term is numb/accepting of it) I would love it to be this thing. Also the thought of firing Dreepy at people in Smash is something I think would be hilarious.

Nominating Concept:Fortnite Character x 10

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Dragapult

Chances: 0% Want 1%

This is a very unique fighter here. Floating, ranged fighter, etc. For some reason, I have a feeling Sakurai isn't picking him as he's not popular enough for Smash. It would be nice for Smash to finally have a Dragon type in the game as well.

Your reasoning is false, Dragapult is the most popular Galar Pokemon, being even more popular than Toxtricity. It's also the 11th most popular Pokemon overall.

 

[SharkLord]

Your reasoning is false, Dragapult is the most popular Galar Pokemon, being even more popular than Toxtricity. It's also the 11th most popular Pokemon overall.

Yeah, popularity isn't an issue. I do think it would be a bit of a problem if that popularity wasn't made known when the picks were being chosen, which is why I'm standing by my "starters or bust" mindset. Sakurai, Nintendo and Game Freak wouldn't know who would be popular, so they'd just go with one of the starters to play it safe.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Melmetal

Chance: 0%
Yeah, it ain't happening. It's WAY past its relevancy phase, and as shown here, we have at least 6 other Pokemon to choose from.
Want: 5%
Eh, not really for me. That being said, I can understand why anyone who DOES want it would. There's an audience out there somewhere.

Everyone else
Chance: 50%
It's a coin flip at this point. On the one hand, it's Pokemon. Pokemon always gets special treatment in Smash. Plus, they're all from the newest game(s) in the series, so they count as promotional. On the other hand, Gen 8 has been... controversial, to say the least. Granted, the Nat Dex thing was completely overblown, but that's besides the point. Many fans are still divided on whether or not this Gen is any good. Plus, there's at least two instances of negative feedback regarding promotional content in Ultimate. The first was Incineroar, who pretty much confirmed the Pokemon bias. The second was Byleth, who had a lot of pushback due to being from a new game on the Switch, as petty as that sounds. Even so, we don't know yet exactly how this Pass will go. We'll just have to wait and see.
Want: 50%
It really depends on how it's incorporated. A stage based on the Wild Area would be pretty interesting, especially if they include weather effects. Plus, the music is some of the best in the series. Also, each potential candidate could bring something new. Rillaboom would be our first Grass starter. Intellion could incorporate several spy techniques, in a weird revival of the James Bond idea. Dragapult could easily be the Piranha Plant here, having a wacky yet fitting moveset. Heck, even Urshifu could be different from the other martial artists if they found a way to incorporate his stance changing. However, they could just as easily cut corners. I honestly can't see how Cinderace's soccer motif would translate, for example. Plus, I feel like people overexagerate Toxtricity's uniqueness. We'd just have to sit back and hope for the best.

(Did I include the right amount of sentences? I honestly can't tell).

Nominations: Monokuma x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

(Did I include the right amount of sentences? I honestly can't tell).

Yep, you did.

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain
Nominations: Shuichi Saihara x5

 

[SharkLord]

Quick question: Are we going to do the fixed schedule again when the next fighter swings around? If so, can we at least shorten down the list considerably? We've been doing this for like two months now and we're still not done yet.

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Abstaining on all of the Pokemon today. Like, every single one of them. My Pokemon fanboy days ended long before Sword & Shield came out, and honestly I think we have enough Pokemon reps as is.

Noms: Amiya x10
God bless 10 noms day.