Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[DrifloonEmpire]

DrifloonEmpire DrifloonEmpire You gave 5 noms to Prince of All Cosmos and 5 to Zavok, but you didn't have extra noms. Which one will it be?

Ah, my mistake, thought 10 noms day was yesterday! ^^; The 5 noms will go to Prince of All Cosmos!

 

[Sid-cada]

Melmetal

Chance - 0% - Melmetal is so awkwardly timed, being a sort of in-between generation Pokemon. They basically exist just to be a tie-in for Go and the main series, and have mostly been discarded as of now. He's just another mythical Pokemon in it's ever increasing list, and he doesn't stand out much when all eyes are on the next DLC chapter.

Want - 35% - He's basically just a metal golem made of Mercury. He might be cool if they put more emphasis on the liquid elements, but as of now he's rather bland. Even his signature move is just hitting with both arms. Wow, that's interesting...

Dragapult

Chance - 0% - Popularity ends up meaning little, given how far in advance the Pokemon promotions are chosen. As of now, the popularity of Dragapult I think is too soon to capitalize on, and they would have a character chosen far in advance, assuming one is chosen at all.

Want - 45% - Ghost-Dragon fighter jet is cool, but I've been burnt out on Pokemon. I'd rather not have any at this point.

Toxitricity

Chance - 0.5% - Toxitricty has some interesting promotional appeal. We even know thanks to a Ultra Sun and Moon poster that they had a Dynamax form for him even then. Still, it seems to have taken a back seat compared to other Pokemon, and I doubt that this Pokemon will be chosen over one more promoted.

Want - 45% - Same as above. Cool concept that is held back from being here because I'm sick of Pokemon right now.

Urshifu

Chance - 1% - I can only see this if Covid caused a big enough delay to cause interference with planing. Otherwise, he's already aged out, as the next DLC is coming.

Want - 35% - I don't think form-swapping will be a thing. As a result, I'd rather have a more fantastical Pokemon, thank you.

Cinderace

Chance - 10% - If there were to be a Pokemon chosen, I'll place my bets here. The most promoted of the guaranteed popular starters, Cinderace has also shown itself to be the most popular starter of this region. That said, it's hard to gauge how likely a Pokemon is in the first place, as the spirit event may be a hit and it could be that others will get priority over promoting the current generation of Pokemon.

Want - 40% - Cinderace has a cool concept, but I'd rather not have yet another fire type Pokemon on the roster. I'd rather take Rillaboom.

Rillaboom

Chance - 1% - I can only see this if Sakurai values completing the starter trio. Otherwise, he's the least popular and promoted of the starters, so I can't see it happening.

Want - 50% - I'd like the starter trio for Pokemon to be completed, but that's about all I have to say. Pokemon fatuge is setting in.

Inteleon

Chance - 5% - Not quite as popular as Cinderace, but Inteleon seems like the sort of character that Sakurai naturally likes. I can see him choosing Inteleon if he really feels like he can make a better choice, but I think otherwise Cinderace will be pushed enough that Cinderace has the upper hand.

Want - 40% - Could be cool, but like I said I would prefer another Grass type. I'm tired of Pokemon anyway.


Nominations

Monster Hunter X10

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Your reasoning is false, Dragapult is the most popular Galar Pokemon, being even more popular than Toxtricity. It's also the 11th most popular Pokemon overall.

Thanks for bringing that up. I haven't played much of Sw/Sh lately so I appreciate the knowledge behind Dragapult. Interesting how he's 11th there

 

[GoodGrief741]

Abstaining on all of the Pokemon today. Like, every single one of them. My Pokemon fanboy days ended long before Sword & Shield came out, and honestly I think we have enough Pokemon reps as is.

Noms: Amiya x10
God bless 10 noms day.

Sorry, but you only get 10 noms if you rate all the Pokemon.

 

[Folezicle Lives!]

A suggestion for a rate their chances. How about a Tetris99 stage as an end dlc? Its been a bit of a hit and seems to be pretty active atm.

 

[SharkLord]

A suggestion for a rate their chances. How about a Tetris99 stage as an end dlc? Its been a bit of a hit and seems to be pretty active atm.

Whenever we rate chances, we're allowed to nominate a character or concept. Save that idea for when you rate, so you can put them in your nominations.

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Sorry, but you only get 10 noms if you rate all the Pokemon.

Wait, so if I don't rate I only get 5? OK...

Noms: Amiya x 5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Oh, it's a 10 noms day?

I better edit my nominations.

Incidentally, I actually think Sirfetch'd has a better shot than a lot of the non-starter gen 8 Pokemon at current thanks to Ash having a Galarian Farfetch'd, which is the ONLY Galar region Pokemon he currently has.

Wouldn't that be something? We'd get a current gen Pokemon and an anime swordsman in one. Smash fanbase riots!

 

[Jomosensual]

We just rated a lot of these Pokemon so I'll drop a bunch of past ratings in now

Cinderace, Rillaboom, and Intelleon here:

Cinderace
Chance 25 - I think if we get a starter as playable, and I think if we get a Pokemon it'll be a starter, Cinderace had a good shot since it feels like Nintendo has a solid love for the fire starter for whatever reason. There's a reason to pick them with the DLC coming out this Summer and Fall(hopefully, who knows what else Coronavirus could do). And Cinderace is pretty popular worldwide. I wouldn't be shocked to see it be a Pokemon rep added in. Only major knock I have is that we got spirits for Pokemon already, and while I don't think those are necessarily killers like the anti Pokemon people are pushing since there weren't any major players taken out with the spirits and there was only 4 of them, it still does make we wonder why those were added in the first place. Not that they had to save spirits for the series with plenty more out there, but with so much content out there I think there's still a chance, but less of one. Also, uniqueness of moveset is a bit of a question with 2 fire types in the game but Sakurai could probably find a way around that.

Want 45 - Was my starter pick in the Gen 8 games. I wouldn't hate it just for that. Not sure I'm really interested getting another fire starter but I wouldnt reject it either. Feel like this is the one that would get the most meltdowns and the level of annoying those are also drops my rating very slightly.

Rillaboom
Chance 25 - Think in general Rillaboom would be the lowest chance score if it wasn't for people requesting a grass type starter. That carries a little weight here because while there's some Pokemon fatigue going around, its the one that has the highest moveset potential as well. Also, as we've seen with Byleth and Corrin, when Sakurai gets a character to work on that he knows might not be the most well received he usually pulls something out of his bag of tricks to try and make them as uncontroversial as possible, such as making Byleth use all the relics instead of just the sword or Corrin having one of the most unique and in my opinion, fun moveset in the game. I could see the same situation happening here to try and calm the people that would go ape**** over another Pokemon. Think it's about even with Cinderace right now.

Want 50 - Yeah, I'd like it. A rhythm based moveset could be really fun to play and it would be unique for sure. We could also finally put to bed the Pokemon type triangle requests which would be nice.

Intelleon
Chance 10 - Yeah, I dont think this one is too likely. Water based weapons are really cool, but we have a lot of them with Greninja already. It also doesn't have the popularity the grass type has or the overall popularity Cinderace has. Feel like if I had to put my chips in the middle on a Gen 8 starter then Intelleon isn't the one I'd go with.

Want 40 - Could be fun to play as. Probably the Pokemon I'm the least interested in seeing get in, and people are going to be annoying about this one too so that doesn't do any favors here.


Also, as an aside note, if you think any of the "controversy" with the games is going to be the reason a Pokemon character doesnt get in, then you're probably way too far into whatever bubble you're in. The national dexers complaints and whatever else went on that I tuned out after a while didn't stop it from being one of the best selling switch games of the year, and based on that Nintendo will ignore it completely

Predicts for the day 2 of Pokemon
Melmetal - .5
Obstagoon - .5
Toxtricity - 6.8
Urshifu - 5.1

Noms:
Falinks x5

Melmetal and Urishifu next

Melmetal
Chance 0 - Can't see this happening. If we get another Pokemon it's going to be a 8 gen rep, either if that's DLC or base game. Melmetal missed its chance pretty big. Moveset is a little bit of an issue but it could be fun, and seeing it just straight up eat a metal fighter would be hilarious. Overall yeah, I cant see this happening with the shear number of pokemon they could pick

Want 50 - Very neutral on this. Dont really care either way. Like the Pokemon but I dont feel like I need it in Smash. Like I said above eating metal fighters could be really fun and ROB beware.


Urshifu
Chance 5 - Better chance than the other 2 due to the Pokemon DLC being due out this summer and fall. There's the possibility where Urshifu is too new based on when the DLC packs were decided and when the Pokemon DLC and Urshifu were created and decided. If there's a shill pick out there though then Urshifu makes the most sense.

Want 20 - Hard to get excited about a Pokemon who's not even out yet getting into Smash. I'll take it over some other picks but there's other Pokemon I'd rather get.

And I'll do new ratings for the last 2

Toxtricity
Chance 15 - Last time I gave him a 10%. Only real thing that's changed is that the Pokemon of the year poll came out and it got 2nd overall for gen 8 so I'll give a small boost for that. Otherwise it seems like Toxi has a solid following for both Smash and in general. Also would probably be pretty unique. Not sure about new mechanics but theres likely something to do here.

Want 60 - I dont have a burning want for Toxi like I do a lot of the others I want in the game, but seeing it get in would be cool. There's some fun musical stuff you can do with him and I dont think he'd be hated. Much worse picks out there for Pokemon

Dragapault
Chance 15 - Think the Pokemon of the year poll helped it get into the smash radar a bit. Could Dragy actually get in though? Well maybe. It would have a pretty unique design since we don't really have any ghost or ghost like characters in the game. So that takes care of the new mechanics or playstyle issue now. We still have the issues of the spirit event coming at a bad time(still doesn't deconfirmed when there's 8 trillion others that can come but the timing was still not great) and that the poll may not actually effect anything at all since it happened after the DLC was picked. There's a chance that the rep is just coming later and they just saved a Gen 8 rep a slot though so who knows.

Want 50 - Don't really care. Haven't even found a Dreepy yet in the games so I didn't use the Pokemon much. Feels like it would be an interesting pick bit if it went to a different non starter pokemon I wouldn't care too much. Would probably be really unique however so I'd take it

Predictions
Elma - 15%
Lara - 18%

Noms - Think I have 5 extras on top of the 5 bonus ones from today so I'll do a weird one with:
Jin Sakai x1
John Marston x1
A non Steve/Chief Microsoft rep x13

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Quick question: Are we going to do the fixed schedule again when the next fighter swings around? If so, can we at least shorten down the list considerably? We've been doing this for like two months now and we're still not done yet.

I'd prefer it if this was the last time we're having a fixed schedule in this thread, or atleast for a while untill the homestretch with Character 11. Pretty sure most of us are getting tired of rating Crash, Master Chief, Hayabusa, Geno, etc one after another. If a character really is due for a rerate we should get the opportunity to nom them instead of being forced another fixed schedule with a bunch of other characters whose positions haven't changed and don't need a rerate.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Quick question: Are we going to do the fixed schedule again when the next fighter swings around? If so, can we at least shorten down the list considerably? We've been doing this for like two months now and we're still not done yet.

Not for the next fighter no.

 

[Perkilator]

Not for the next fighter no.

To be honest, I'm not exactly sure why the fixed schedule was a good idea to begin with.

 

[Calamitas]

To be honest, I'm not exactly sure why the fixed schedule was a good idea to begin with.

Pretty sure that barely anyone thought that. I sure didn't.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

To be honest, I'm not exactly sure why the fixed schedule was a good idea to begin with.

If you had objections, here is a thought.

Maybe you should have voiced your concern when I posted it. Just a thought. I explicitly asked for any issues with it to be pmed to me when I proposed it. I saidAnd would ya look at that, no one did. The complaints started...after it was implemented. You has the opportunity to make your case against it. You didn’t. Simple as that.

Pretty sure that barely anyone thought that. I sure didn't.

Once again. If you had issues, you should have written me about them in the week period where it was prior to the schedule. You don’t get the right to complain now when I gave you time to complain and make feedback. There literally was a week where people had the option to make feedback on the fixed schedule, Pm me about it, and would ya know? The feedback was taken. It was condensed, some characters were added and cut. Maybe next time you feel strongly about something, you can pm me like I asked people to do about their complaints and feedback when it was posted instead of going on after the fact.

Further “discussion” , ie pointless complaining after the fact, of the fixed schedule on here will be considered thread derailment.

 

[Perkilator]

If you had objections, here is a thought.

Maybe you should have voiced your concern when I posted it. Just a thought. I explicitly asked for any issues with it to be pmed to me when I proposed it. I saidAnd would ya look at that, no one did. The complaints started...after it was implemented. You has the opportunity to make your case against it. You didn’t. Simple as that.


Once again. If you had issues, you should have written me about them in the week period where it was prior to the schedule. You don’t get the right to complain now when I gave you time to complain and make feedback. There literally was a week where people had the option to make feedback on the fixed schedule, Pm me about it, and would ya know? The feedback was taken. It was condensed, some characters were added and cut. Maybe next time you feel strongly about something, you can pm me like I asked people to do about their complaints and feedback when it was posted instead of going on after the fact.

Further “discussion” , ie pointless complaining after the fact, of the fixed schedule on here will be considered thread derailment.

Ah, okay...fair enough. I guess I was too on board to rate Crash and Sora again to really care.

 

[SharkLord]

I was fine at first because I'm new here and haven't gotten to rate all these characters, but I think once is enough for me.

 

[3DSNinja]

I did raise objections and said it was pretty dumb when this came up.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I did raise objections and said it was pretty dumb when this came up.

Did you PM me? During the whole week where I said to PM me if you had complaints? Let me check. Oh no you didn't. I was explicit in saying if you had any issues or thoughts to PM me. So I say it is pretty dumb for you not only to continue this after I gave my formal warning.

 

[3DSNinja]

...oh, i didn't.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain on a full write up, but I will give some brief commentary on every Pokemon, especially since everyone else hit the major points already. For the three starters, Cinderace by far is the most marketed of the three, and while all three of them have new Gigantamax forms, and Rillaboom has the fan demand, Cinderace is looking to be the one Game Freak pushes. Furthermore, in the Gen 8 anime, Scorbunny is Goh's starter and the new opening shows that it will become Cinderace soon enough. It is being pushed as a second mascot for this series alongside Ash's Pikachu, so Cinderace by far has the biggest advantage of the trio.

Melmetal grows less likely the further we get from Gen 7, and was pushed as an in-between generations Pokemon. However, Melmetal's promotional period is over, Gen 7 already has a rep, and Smash has never promoted a past gen Pokemon outside of Mewtwo, who was a returning veteran. However, the new opening for the Gen 8 anime has a shot of Ash's Alola companions sans Lillie outside of the Pokemon School, showing that Ash will be returning to Alola to visit his friends (YESSSSS!!!!!). This implies that this will include his Pokemon, one of which is Melmetal. While this is a bit of a stretch, it still could be a point in Melmetal's favor.

Dragapult and Toxtricity are notable for being both naturally popular and placing 1st and 2nd respectively on the Galar section of the Pokemon of the Year poll, and the former has the coveted Pseudolegendary status while the latter is implied to have had its' development started early on, it's Gigantamax given extra significance. While promotional often trumps popularity, these two very much could surprise us, especially since the latter still has promotional points.

Urshifu remains the predicted shill pick for the pass, and while all eyes are on Crown Tundra now, Nintendo more than likely intended for FP7 to be announced at E3, a mere week before Isle of Armor's release. If this is the case, then it was likely the original intent if Urshifu is indeed part of the pass. But he has to come within the next two slots or his window is up.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x10

Predictions:
Lara Croft - 10.63% - Expecting decent but not huge scores due to competition within Square Enix, along with her more western popularity.
Elma - 23.91% - Expecting a LOT of overrates despite all signs pointing towards Rex.

 

[Perkilator]

I believe we should be moving on now?

 

[SharkLord]

I believe we should be moving on now?

Yeah, I believe it's been a day now.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I was aiming to end it at midnight sharp.one hour warning.

 

[Calamitas]

Alright, I think this is the next day already? Judging by the current time, it should be. I'll just post my rating now already, since I have it ready to go and am short on time right now.

The only character that could make me instantly buy the entire pass

Chance: 35%
And I feel 35% is still a bit generous. Anyway, I'll try to refrain from doing too big of a write-up, since I feel that most of it will fall on deaf ears. Main reason why I feel Elma would be picked for Rex is because unlike him (with 2 being very much a one-and-done kinda game), she's very likely to have actual future relevance. X ended on a cliffhanger, and Elma's cameo appearance in 2 did a good amount of teases and sequel-bait in the party chats involving her. Considering that we know that a new Xenoblade game is already in the works, and that series director Takahashi gets bored if he does the same thing multiple times, a sequel to X is pretty likely, especially since other staff members have experienced interest in making one in the past.
Now for Smash specifically, in her DLC appearance in 2, there was some tease with a character going "It's everyone's dream seeing Shulk and Elma together!", which pretty glaringly excludes Rex, who's also at the scene. . . but considering that that entire thing came from a game update in September of 2018, I doubt that that specifically means anything, considering Fighter Pass Volume 2 was most likely a consideration at best at that point, since Ultimate itself hadn't even been revealed yet. Unless of course that was meant as a kind of "oh if we get a new character it's her!!!" kinda tease. . . which yeah, fat chance.
Now, as far as content already in Ultimate goes, the lack of much of anything for X is much more glaring than for 2. Of course, with music there's the point to consider that it was composed by Hiroyuki Sawano, and that there might be some ownership issues there. . . but considering that they had absolutely no issue in getting back two of X' tracks for 2's DLC on (what seems to be Monolith Soft's near constant shoestring budget), I don't think that that's much of an issue. As it stands though, the amount of content that X has in Ultimate I feel is comparable to the amount of content ARMS had pre-Min-Min, and well, look how that turned out.
At the end of the day though, this all is still just enough for me to give a 35% chance. Nice as it is to have some point in Elma's favour, there's still four letters holding her back: "Wii U". The game may have done pretty well for a Wii U title - despite some people insisting on calling it a flop that sold poorly - but at the end of the day, it's (currently) still just that, and we're firmly within the Switch era even if the year currently feels a lot like one from the Wii U era.

Want: 100%
I mean. . . you've seen the long write-up up there, you've seen the character name gag I've made. This should come as no surprise. And I don't think I need to anything else.

Minecroft

Chance: 10%
Compared to the wall of text above, this will be short. Lara has a long history in gaming, and is an iconic character, so she has that going for her. However, there are several quite big points against her, namely being a Western third-party character, and standing in competition with tons of other characters owned by Square Enix. I firmly believe that we are going to see "smaller" Japanese third-party characters before we're ever going to see a big Western third-party character, so for her chances, I'm keeping them pretty low.

Want: Abstain
Never played a Tomb Raider game. No want rating from me.

Predicting Jibanyan to get around 8.63%
Predicting Agumon to get around 23.41%

Nominating Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Lara Croft

Chance: 10% - Lara Croft's main points of favor come from her historical aspects, and that is very much something that would appeal to Sakurai. Her games are extremely famous and have sold millions of copies. Nice and simple. A gaming icon like her sounds like a shoe-in, right?

Problem is, there are also a lot of points against her. Firstly is her competition within Square Enix. it is one of the most hotly contested catagories now that the two flagship franchises are out of the way, and while Lara has a decent amount of fan demand, other Square reps far surpass her. There's also the fact that her series isn't doing as well as it used to, it has a relatively poor Nintendo showing, and she just isn't that popular in Japan. Plus with Nintendo choosing the characters I don't see Sakurai singling her out to campaign for.

Overall a gaming icon with a solid shot but a lot of hurdles to jump over.

Want: 10% - I wouldn't mind if she got in and she could bring some interesting moves to the table, using bows, ropes, etc. But I have to give her a low score due to wanting her fellow Eidos character Gex. Still, if she got in I'd certainly respect the decision.


Elma

Chance: 5% - Ultimately Elma missed the boat, her biggest chance would've been as Smash 4 DLC and that's long passed. Furthermore, while having an above average performance for a Wii U game, Nintendo is more than likely looking towards the Xenoblade games with the much bigger sales. Furthermore, while she did get in as Xenoblade 2 DLC, so did Shulk and Fiora, so it wasn't special treatment for her, but it does still show that Monolithsoft likes the game. Though, Nintendo is choosing the characters, and I don't see them going for Elma for two reasons.

First, while it was stated that MonolithSoft's staff was interested in remaking X at some point, there's the fact that Smash doesn't tend to promote remakes. We didn't get Sceptile for OmegaRuby/AlphaSapphire, we didn't get Alm or Celica for Echoes (Thank God), and so far Xenoblade Definitive Edition hasn't yielded anything. So based on that precedent I don't see them making a special case for Elma.

Second, and most important, there's inter-series competition. You all know who I'm talking about. Xenoblade 2 was the game that really solidified the series as a viable franchise to Nintendo and Rex is ultimately more popular with the fans. Japan prefers Rex, Sakurai wants Rex. And we got ARMS, more than likely Sakurai will petition for Rex's inclusion. And I highly doubt they'd double-dip on Xenoblade for DLC.

Want: 15% - I prefer Rex myself, but Xenoblade isn't topping my list of favorite franchises, and ultimately there are first parties I'm much more invested in. Plus JRPGs have gotten a ton of love in Smash DLC, so I hope to see some more variety.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5

Predictions:
Jibanyan - 5.39% - The YO-KAI Watch craze has really fizzled out in Japan and has continued to decline. Expecting a lot of low scores, especially in comparison to Professor Layton.
Agumon - 10.34% - Expecting some decent scores as well, but also expecting a lot of hesitance in regards to Namco due to competition, especially given the common "Lloyd or Nothing" expectations.

 

[DanganZilla5]

I am not going into my ratings yet since I don't think the day is officially over but you guys are not giving Lara Croft enough credit, at least in my opinion and I will explain why in my rating. But again the day isn't over so I will stop here since its off-topic.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

And my internet died smh.

day over, rate Lara Croft and Elma, predict Jibanyan and Agumon.

 

[Calamitas]

And my internet died smh.

day over, rate Lara Croft and Elma, predict Jibanyan and Agumon.

So just to make sure, do mine and DrifloonEmpire's Ratings already count?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

So just to make sure, do mine and DrifloonEmpire's Ratings already count?

 

[Sari]

Some music for today's characters:

Elma

Spoiler: Xenoblade X Music

Lara Croft

Spoiler: Tomb Raider music

-----

Elma

Chance: 5%
The best chance Elma ever had at getting into Smash was during SSB4's DLC cycle, while her best chance at Ultimate was during the first Fighters Pass. Now with the first Fighters Pass now over, Rex is seemingly back in the game which is a giant blow to Elma's chances considering how big Xenoblade 2 is. Xenoblade X is the least popular entry of the three main games so I just can't see Elma being picked over Rex.

Want: Abstain
I have yet to play Xenoblade X so I won't comment.

-----

Lara Croft

Gonna quote my Lara rating from the end of February since not much has changed regarding her chances.

Chance: 30%
Lara is a gaming icon who like Crash was very big in the PS1 days and had a successful reboot within the last ten years or so. She is a very recognizable character in the public eye and was even used in various mainstream commercials in the late 90's/early 2000's. When it comes to us getting another Square Enix character she is definitely one of the underrated frontrunners.

As for Lara's recent appearance in Brawlhalla, I don't think it hurts her chances at all. In fact I'd honestly argue that this actually increases her chances because it shows Square Enix is fine with Lara appearing in crossovers. It's also worth noting that just a few weeks ago, an official Lara Croft skin was confirmed for Rainbow Six Siege. Makes me think Square is bent on promoting Tomb Raider through crossovers similar to SNK's various guest appearances within the past few years.

Want: 90%
I recently got into the Tomb Raider series and I still can't believe I never gave it a chance sooner. I'm a sucker for artifact hunting stories like Indiana Jones and Uncharted so I instantly got hooked on the idea of Lara appearing in Smash after giving her games a try. I do hope that she sports her classic outfit in Smash though since I like it much better than her reboot design.

-----

Jibanyan chance prediction: 5.00%
Agumon chance prediction: 5.00%

Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x5

 

[Calamitas]

Well that's not very helpful.

 

[Simnm]

Are we going to do predictions if a direct is announced?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Are we going to do predictions if a direct is announced?

 

[Lyncario]

Lara Croft
Chance: 25%
Lara has many things going for her. One of them is that she is Lara Croft, one of the most iconic and important character in gaming history. Furthermore, TOmb Raider has incredible sales, both for the classic era and modern era, with Tomb Raider 2013 being Square Enix's second best selling game of all time, behind only Final Fantasy 7, and their 3rd best selling series behind Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest, so it's not one that can just be overlooked like that. Furhtermore, something that goes in her way is that Square Enix is not stingy like many think they are, it's just that Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest have shared ownership with the composers and illustrators, while Tomb Raider is fully owned by them. So Lara has big pluses in form of relevance, massive importance to gaming history, massive sales, and being owned by a Japanese company despite her western origins, in top of having history with Nintendo with games on Gamecubes and the Wii. However, Lara does have a minus which is that she doesn't have a lot of fan demand. However, fighter pass 1 showed that you could get in despite not having that much fan demand if you were important enough and were popular enough in certain regions and Japan, and while Lara is not as popular in Japan as she is in Europa and America, she is still decently popular there. Really, Lara is one of if not the biggest sleeper pick in Smash speculation. She is pretty much like Snake if he never joined in Brawl.
Want: 95%
Lara is not only one of the most iconic and popular character in gaming history, but she's also one of me favorite. Tomb Raider has been a series I got into in my early teenage years and I absolutely loved it, with Lara becoming one of my favorite heroine. I would welcome her in Smash with open arms since she is absolutely aweomse, and her moveset would be really cool and creative, especialy if it's a mix of her classic and reboot self where she use her guns, her bow, the man relics she gets, and many other things.

Elma
Chance: 0.1%
I'm sorry, but Elma is just not hapening. The latest Xenoblades are Xenoblade 1 HD and 2, so even if the series got a promotional pick it wouldn't be her, and I don't think that a remaster of Xenoblade X is likely at all, considering that Monolith is working on a new project after Xenoblade 1 HD from when we last heard of them. I see absolutely no reasn as to why she would get in over Rex, or even another first party character. The only reason as to why she wuold join would be if she had overwhelming fan support, but it's not at this level.
Want: 85%
Which is an absolute shame, because Elma is awesome, and Xenoblade X is also awesome, one of the best Wii U games out there. The music in that game would be so cool to hear in Smash, and her moveset would also be loads of fun. And finaly, I will say it, Elma was robbed of being in the base game of Ultimate. It's understandable that Rex did not make it in due to time constraint, but come on, ELma was right there for a second Xenoblade rep, especialy snice her game released in April 2015 and the develpoment of Ultimate started at the end of 2015. Elma is one of the characters who actualy got robbed of being in Smash and it's very sad.

Edit because I forgot nominations and predictions again

Predictions:
Jinbanyan: 14.5%
Agumon: 9.2%

Nominations: SMT x10 (I think that I still have 5 extra nominations)

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Guys I think "" should be taken as a yes.

The one character that would make Resetera happy
Chance: 2%
She appeared on an official Xenoblade anniversary artwork alongside Shulk and Rex so that's something.
Anyway, the only condition where Elma makes it in is if a general Xenoblade rep was decided upon and the Xenoblade directors liked her enough to choose her. I don't know what goes on in their mind however and it doesn't really matter with Nintendo at the helm who are way more likely to just immediately go for her competition. The Wii U exclusivity and really be considered a deathblow and I don't think a followup to or remaster of X would be in the works ehen the DLC lineup was chosen.

Want: 15%
Have not played a Xenoblade game but I'd prefer her to Rex based on XB2 being a bit too "anime" for my liking. Looks more interesting in moveset as well imo with her dual blade-pistols. XBX also seems like it's in higher need of representation with Elma's spirit being the only content it has to my knowledge.

Abstaining on Lara

Jibanyan: 6.24%
Agumon: 4.86%
Deltarune content x5

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain. I kinda regret not speaking my opinion on the fixed schedule sooner.

Jibanyan: 20%
Agumon: 30%

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo x3
Sakura Shinguji ×2

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Lara Cricket.

Chance: 5%

While undeniably an iconic character, she is not as popular as she used to be in the early 00's. Not unpopular, but still. The big problem i have is that beign iconic while a great merit on its own right, it does not make you guaratee to be in Smash. I have seen barely any interest to get her in this game, not from the Smash Fans, not from the casuals, etc. and unlike Joker i don't see a good timing situation here.

Want: 0%
No thanks. The only Square "Reps" i want are Geno (who i don't see as a Square Rep) and Terra. I would rather have Lara on a PS All Stars Sequel instead. (and yes i know i gave Crash a really high want score, i did say i had Childhood bias)

Her face looks like Brie Larson, that's probably why i dislike her.

Chance: 3%

Xenoblade X is old news, Period. Some people will say "BUT IT'S TOO EARLY TO MAKE UP A PATTERN 123OIJ21IJ3!!!" and i have to disagree on that. Xenoblade clearly follows on the footsteps of other JRPGS like FF or Tales, where every brand new entry in the franchise introduces a brand new cast of characters that become the new focus. The cameo of Elma in XB2 does not change things. Also the fact that Sakurai went out of his way to state that he considered Rex yet didn't even said **** about Elma, to me, confirms that should Xenoblade get another chararacter, it's gonna be treated in the same way as Pokémon and FE, the most recent main character from the most recent game.

"B-B-B-B-BUT SHE COULD GET A REMAKE/PORT AND THAT WOULD MAKE HER RELEVANT!!!!!1112.

Dude, Remakes usually don't mean ****. Last time i can remember a remake/port of an old game that got MAJOR content was the Gerudo Valley Stage from Ocarina of Time 3D in Smash 3DS, and the Pokémon Trainer that clearly uses the FR/LG design (which at time of Brawl's development, was among the most recent Pokémon games) but other times? Not so much.

Did we get Celica from Fire Emblem Echoes in Smash Ulimtate? No, Did we get Skull Kid (who is far more popular than Elma ever was, and the requests for a New Zelda rep have been a thing for longer than Elma ever has been) after the Majora's Mask 3DS remake? (which was released in the same year Smash Ultimate started development) No. Did we get Sceptile after Omega Ruby and Alpha Saphire? NO.

Remakes don't make you automatically likely. Elma's game could get a remake and STILL be easily passed over with no real issue, just like when she was passed over when Smash Ultimate was beign developed (did i mention Xeno X was released just a few months before Smash Ultimate started development? and she seems to have been passed over by Sakurai who had more interest in Rex)

Yeah Xeno X content is lacking in Ultimate, but again, means likely nothing. Isaac wasn't an AT in Smash 4's base game and has little to no content in there, and he didn't make it as DLC. If anything the lack of content of Xeno X in Smash Ultimate is kind of the proof that the game is largely forgotten and they have moved on.

To make matters worse........she isn't exactly super popular, despite what some people might tell you. People don't hate her, but when you see Smash requests, outside of that Ballot Period from April 2015 to October 2015 (when Xenoblade 2 wasn't a thing and Elma was "relevant"), she has never been a major request. Rex on the other hand, aside from beign more recent, is just more popular and requested all around. Among Japanese fans Rex is one of the most requested Smash reps of recent year alongside Bandanna Dee, and he's not too far off in the west either.

Elma is more of a sloppy seconds, and even if Elma started getting more popular recently, the popularity that Rex had on 2017 and 2018 (before Fighter Pass 2 was beign made) trumps any popularity Elma used to have, both his game (it helps Xeno 2 was released on an actually successful console and released earlier on its life cycle, as oposed to beign released on a DOA system that was on its last legs) and his presence in Smash circles. and if Sakurai had to choose between a heavily requested character from a really popular game that came out recetnly that he even considered to be playable, over a character that is less requested and popular and comes from a less recent, less popular game that he didn't even considered (or at least, not mentioned in public) the answer is clearly skewed towards one over the other.

Elma isn't a Banjo, nor a K.Rool. She is not this super popular request that persist to the end. She is a Zoroark, a Michaiah, a character that relies on relevancy and timing to get in, and failed, and now has become a face of Yesterday. Popularity and relevancy aren't everything, but she isn't just competing with Rex, she is competing with a LOT of characters, both First and Third Party. So even if Rex stays a Mii Costume (which is completely possible) i see it more likely for Xenoblade to stay with Just Shulk, instead of getting Elma as an additional character.

Want: 1%

I don't care about Elma at all. She has some nice moveset potential, but i rate my desire on my personal attachment, not because they have some "cool" idea, and i have no interest in Xenoblade X at all. Some people dislike Rex's design (and i can understand that, he is a little too basic) but i hate Elma's design. Trying to explaing is like explaining why i hate eating Rotten Eggs. Her boring, dull face that lacks passionate emotion and feels dead on the inside, the color scheme that is really dark, etc etc. I could go on but i think it's not necessary for now.

Also, im really getting tired of.............ahem, "certain" Elma fans. Not gonna point fingers because i don't like that, but if there's any character whose "fanbase" turned me off a character, it's Elma, no question Not because they are "TOXIAC Q"!!!!11", it's just that i found some of them really obnoxious. I don't want to start a war.........but i don't want Elma either.

The only reason i gave her a 1% is simply because:
1-If i had to choose between a Nintendo character i don't care about VS a Third Party i don't care about, i chose the former because i Think that Smash Bros Should be mostly focused on NINTENDO.
2-Again, she has some cool moveset ideas, but until i see her in action in Smash, all i can say is: "NO thanks"

Noms:
Vi (Bug Fables) X5

 

[Lamperouge]

"It's everyone's dream seeing Shulk and Elma together!"

Which we did...in Xenoblade Chronicles 2.

I have no idea why you keep bringing that up as a point towards Elma's potential inclusion in Smash when it was clearly just a cute fourth wall break and nothing else.

 

[fogbadge]

predict Jibanyan and Agumon.

jibanyan and agumon? im gonna enjoy that day despite everyone saying theyve no chance

lara croft
chances: 50% i can see it going either way. lara croft is widely known as clearly an icon in gaming, at least in the west not sure about japan. however her wide reconizablity and popularity (i think) seems like just the sort of thing thatd be all shed need to get in. if smash really is to be about all of gaming now then she fits the bill rather well i think.
want: 0% no thank you. ive never played any of her games and i never will. i have no respect for the character, the people who made her in the first place. id go in to why but im not sure on the rules about disusing the area id be going in to. she was made by people who had similar thinking to the people who made a certain creepy member of the roster. thats not the only reason why i dont like her but we dont have time for everything.

elma
chances: 10% i dont think shes impossible but i think theyll be going for rex. xenoblade x was the least successful of the 3 and while elma does have her large fan base, rex's is bigger. most of the arguments in her favour would also apply to rex the only one ive seen that doesnt is the leack of xenoblade x music. which im just gonna say i dont buy rather than say something that may set someone off. elma may forever be stuck in this weird place where sakurai doesnt even think about the characters who are there.
want: 75% i do actually quite like her. when the game was coming out i was convinced i wasnt gonna like her but then i got the game and i did like her and all my hate was focused on someone else. elma is a cool character with great moveset potential and i would welcome her in smash. however her fans bug me a lot and they always have done long before xenoblade 2 was announced. so i feel like her inclusion will be soured by her fans becoming even more irritating.

nominate nate adams x5 even though tomorrow will probably prove that its not a good idea

 

[Calamitas]

Which we did...in Xenoblade Chronicles 2.

I have no idea why you keep bringing that up as a point towards Elma's potential inclusion in Smash when it was clearly just a cute fourth wall break and nothing else.

'Cause if it was meant for that game in particular, then I don't see why they didn't include Rex in that line. Wouldn't be the first time that devs have teased Smash in their own game. But again, like I said in the very post you quoted, it's not like I believe it actually matters at this point.