Gals with Guns
Elma
Chance: 7%
I just want to start off by saying I thoroughly believe Elma would've absolutely been a newcomer in the base game if not for "Everyone is Here!" There was a lot going in her favour with that as the one big exceptions since Sakurai prioritized bringing back all veterans which limited the amount of newcomers he could add during pre-release. (I'm not too upset by this considering it meant Cloud returned so...I guess I'll take that trade) I also believe that she may have been considered when Corrin was chosen for Smash 4's DLC as well.
Now before inevitably talking about Rex. Let's talk about Cross/Rook first since there are some who believe that they could be chosen over Elma. And while Cross/Rook is technically the player character, they do play a secondary role in the game's story to Elma. Not to mention when it comes to Xenoblade Chronicles X specifically Monolith seems to favour using Elma to represent the game in cameos, marketing, etc. So with that in mind if X gets a character it will more than likely be Elma.
Now with regards to Rex, personally I'm not confident in Rex's chances, and while I'm not necessarily saying he won't be added
because of his Mii Costume specifically, but moreso because 'Xenoblade Chronicles 2' already got a pretty significant showcase with a decent amount of added content (for a game without a character and stage) within the post release period. And with an apology from Sakurai for not adding him in the game which from precedence actually tells me he won't be added in the this game at all. Sakurai's spoken about adding as many worlds as possible which focusing on another game such as X would fullfill that goal. Technically, yes, this would be considered a different development period for this game, but (barring another Mii costume gets added later for another character from 2) I don't think we'll get another focus on XC2 in this fighter's pass at all. Of course this could be moot if the producers do urge Sakurai to add Rex in the second pass similarly for Min Min. But of course the devs could also just as easily push for Elma as well if they wanted. One important note we have to keep in mind for what Sakurai is looking for in this Pass is how each fighter is bringing something new to Smash with regards to how they play (with Min Min being the currently only example atm)
BUT this means nothing regarding if he'd choose Rex or Elma since this can apply to both of them really; Rex can utilize his Blade Pyra/Mythra/etc, and Elma has the weapon switching as well as her Overdrive. But both do have something unique to bring to the table.
Regarding a Switch port for X or an X2 sequel. I don't particularly think it would make much of a difference. Theoretically it coouuld influence Sakurai's decision if he approaches Monolith at the right moment and they are working on a port/sequel at the time, but it's highly unlikely and even if they are in the works, as of now Pokemon Trainer and ZSS are really the only characters who were added due to being part of a recently released remake, despite lots of potential fighters that could've been added.
A quick tl;dr, Sakurai's statements on 'new worlds' as well as focusing on unique playstyles could work out in Elma's favour. X doesn't have much content in the game so pretty much anything added be it a stage, music, and additional spirits would all be new content to Smash. I'm particularly not confident on Sakurai revisiting XC2 moving forward unless pressured by the devs, and if he decides to add a character from X Elma is more than likely going to be the one he goes with. That said she's currently part of a game that is last Gen and not the most recent entry in it's respective franchise which does indeed drop her chances quite a bit (I remember I once rated her nearly 90%, which was before 'Everyone is Here!' which is likely the wall that
ultimately blocked her chances from getting in the game)
Want: 100%
Second most wanted newcomer overall, with Xenoblade Chronicles X easily being my favourite Xenoblade game and one of my favourite games of all time. Logged in pretty close to 300 hours exploring Mira, which totally needs a stage in Smash in some form (like I'll take anything but NLA tbh, Primordia, Noctilum, Sylvalum, etc) I thoroughly enjoyed her as a character in that game, her class Full Metal Jaguar is one of the most fun in the game. And for pete's sake we need some of that music in Smash! Sawano did an excellent job composing this game (even if some tracks are divisive amoung fans)
----
Lara Croft
Chance: 30%
Personally I feel people do sleep on Lara's chances as she's an industry icon as her status has extended to even getting multiple feature films. Being owned by a company who has already contributed to Smash's roster is highly beneficial for her cmpared to most other western icons. While yes, Square has a whole slew potential fighters from various franchises, but I feel its important to note that fighters are typically chosen for their own merits rather than how they compare to other characters, especially if those characters are from different IPs. If for example 2B or Geno gets chosen I don't think it would really affect Lara's chances directly one way or the other. Tomb Raider is a HUGE franchise lest we forget. And Lara Croft (while true not at her peak) is still a household name and one that has that mountain of a legacy to back her up.
Want: 95%
She's definitely up there. This is pretty much the only possible chance we'll get to see a legendary matchup between Lara Croft and Samus Aran in an official crossover especially one as big as Smash Ultimate. The prospect as is, is enough for me to want her in Smash. I trust Sakurai can come up with something neat for the archeologist to stand out in Smash's roster. Say what you will about her demand or popularity amoung Smash fans, but I think people underestimate how much of an impact her reveal would be, should she happen.
: We have actual demons of varying shapes and sizes, the most notable of which has ice powers and a distinctive sillouhette, plus various humans who can command said demons, and yet we settle for some shmuck with nothing but a knife, a gun, and a generic super mode? Really?
