Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Mushroomguy12]

Looks like Ring Fit's out of the running. I know they got a lot of nominations.

https://twitter.com/NintendoVS/status/1237550841529126912/

I do wish these DLC Spirit event franchises like Resident Evil, Astral Chain, Ring Fit, if nothing else, could at least get some Mii Costumes and maybe songs down the line so we could at least at some small semblance of playing as them. Obviously not the same as getting playable reps, but would be still better than just some PNGs.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I do think that you can give some an edge over others because of demand. I don't think I've ever seen anyone asking for Yuga or Demise.

Yuga and Demise were certainly popular around the time their respective games came out.

The thing about LoZ characters is that they're all pretty popular, but none of them are so popular as to break out of the core community in terms of significant demand, nor are they popular enough to top the core community compared to picks like Geno and Isaac.

 

[Sid-cada]

Skull Kid

Chance - 3.5% - Out of all the Zelda characters, he probably has the biggest chance. The combination of history and iconicness in both the Zelda fanbase and Smash speculation as well has kept Skull Kid in a relatively good shape to his coppetion. However, he seems to still be stuck in Assist trophy limbo, and that plus time has severely cramped the outlook of his chances and his popularity on top of that. While that might be enough to kill most characters, he's been in the ring long enough that he just barely manages to escape the jaws of outright disconfirmation to me.

Want - 50% - I've never bought the hype that he could have an interesting moveset. I'd much rather have Tettra or Vaati, to give a bit more to the Toon side of Zelda. However, at this point I'm beginning to have a bit of sympathy to his fans, and am reserving judgement on him should he appear.


Midna

Chance - 0.5% - I think the same could be said for Skull Kid for much of what I would say for Mida, except that I don't think she has reached the legendary status of Skull Kid. Majora's mask has been held as a Masterpiece of gaming, while Twilight Princess is a bit more of a contested game. I think she lacks the iconography to attract as much attention or popularity to make it as worthwhile unless something weird happens.

Want - 50% - Mostly an echo of what I think of Skull Kid. I don't know what else to say other than I would much rather prefer Tetra or Vatti.


Nominations

De Blob X5

 

[Jomosensual]

Looks like Ring Fit's out of the running. I know they got a lot of nominations.

https://twitter.com/NintendoVS/status/1237550841529126912/

Ouch. Think RFT was one of the top names for the next schedule, which we're only a couple more days away from

EDIT: Nope, nevermind. It was close though

 

[warpenguin55]

Looks like Ring Fit's out of the running. I know they got a lot of nominations.

https://twitter.com/NintendoVS/status/1237550841529126912/

RIP RingFit

 

[GoodGrief741]

It's with a heavy heart that I type this

Disconfirmed

Ring Fit Adventurer - 90 noms

They were really high up on the noms list, getting around 10 noms per day, so they probably would have gotten into the first or second week after the fixed schedule. I'm currently playing RFA and loving it so I was really looking forward to a rating.

Needless to say I'd advise that anyone who's nominating that character for today's rating change their noms. Perkilator

 

[Cadillac]

Ring Fit is out of the running. Ouch.
It feels like Astral Chain all over again. Good candidate that got the spirit treatment.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Big fat RIP for Ring Fit...

I'm probably gonna be coming back sometime soon when we start rating the Gen 8 mons next. My boi Toxtricity's coming up in 2 days. Not sure who to nominate tho.

 

[Jomosensual]

Big fat RIP for Ring Fit...

I'm probably gonna be coming back sometime soon when we start rating the Gen 8 mons next. My boi Toxtricity's coming up in 2 days. Not sure who to nominate tho.

Our next day has the 3 starters in it too

 

[CrusherMania1592]

RFA definitely hit the ouch mark today.

Big fat RIP for Ring Fit...

I'm probably gonna be coming back sometime soon when we start rating the Gen 8 mons next. My boi Toxtricity's coming up in 2 days. Not sure who to nominate tho.

Welp I'll be here for that.

 

[Jomosensual]

Big fat RIP for Ring Fit...

I'm probably gonna be coming back sometime soon when we start rating the Gen 8 mons next. My boi Toxtricity's coming up in 2 days. Not sure who to nominate tho.

I guess while im at it, if you want more gen 8 mons to get nomed feel free to toss some noms at Falinks

 

[Ninjaed]

I guess while im at it, if you want more gen 8 mons to get nomed feel free to toss some noms at Falinks

I really don't get why the Gen 8 Spirits Event doesn't deconfirm Gen 8 Pokémons tbh. What makes it so different from the others that it doesn't deconfirm?

 

[Sari]

Day over...

...and another week without a Direct announcement as well as nothing but bad news for the past 24 hours. I don't know how much longer I can last.

Rate the final evolutions of the Pokemon Sword/Shield starters: those being Rillaboom, Cinderace, and Intelleon.

The following rating will be another Pokemon day so predict Obstagoon, Toxtricity, Melmetal, and Urshifu.

Megadoomer

-----

Music Post

Here are some songs to get into the Sword and Shield mood (I'll be posting more for the following day):

Spoiler: Pokemon Sword/Shield Music

I really don't get why the Gen 8 Spirits Event doesn't deconfirm Gen 8 Pokémons tbh. What makes it so different from the others that it doesn't deconfirm?

The general argument is that the spirit event was just to promote Sword/Shield since it happened near its release date and that the Gen 8 spirits weren't going to be playable anyway. Personally however, I think the spirit event does hurt a Gen 8 'Mon's chances which will reflect in my rating later.

 

[Cadillac]

Day over...

...and another week without a Direct announcement as well as nothing but bad news for the past 24 hours. I don't know how much longer I can last.

Rate the final evolutions of the Pokemon Sword/Shield starters: those being Rillaboom, Cinderace, and Intelleon.

The following rating will be another Pokemon day so predict Obstagoon, Toxtricity, Melmetal, and Urshifu.

Megadoomer

-----

Music Post

Here are some songs to get into the Sword and Shield mood (I'll be posting more for the following day):

Spoiler: Pokemon Sword/Shield Music

The general argument is that the spirit event was just to promote Sword/Shield since it happened near its release date and that the Gen 8 spirits weren't going to be playable anyway. Personally however, I think the spirit event does hurt a Gen 8 'Mon's chances which will reflect in my rating later.

My counterargument for that is, if you remember, Byleth's showcase was back in November, and Sakurai said he was finished with the lineup. If a SwSh character was going to be added, they would have not gotten a spirit event.

 

[warpenguin55]

I want to throw in a few points that I think apply to all 3 of these Pokemon, and I don't feel like typing it for each one.

• I think we're getting a Gen 8 Pokemon rep. Despite all drama around the National Dex(needless whining imo), Sword/Shield still sold pretty well and was determined to be a pretty decent game at the very least. I also intentionally made all the chance scores add up to 100% because see first sentence.
• Gen 8 is not my favorite region. Gen 6 & 7 are by far my 1st and 2nd place. Gen 8 is probably about 3rd or 4th
• I don't love any of the 3 starter's final evos. I initially hated Cinderace and Inteleon, but they grew on me. I always thought Rillaboom was just OK. Probably my second to last favorite set of starters(Gen 5 was WEAK).
• My ranking of the starters goes Rillaboom, Inteleon, Cinderace. As previously stated, I now think all 3 final evos are pretty OK.
• Pokemon is my favorite Nintendo franchise.
• For some reason, I couldn't find a popularity poll that wasn't from Spring 2019, and the few post release ones I found were all about the 1st stage starers. Either I'm terrible at research or the polls just don't exist(it's probably the former)

Rillaboom

Chance: 60%
OK, so Rillaboom has a few things going for it. First, we have no Grass Type starter (nobody counts Ivysaur when this comes up). People have been asking for a Grass type Starter since Smash 4. Sakurai held spots for Greninja and Incineroar because thought Pokemon was important enough to that. That alone is enough to get at least 1 pokemon over the 25% mark. We also have the fact that the "too new" rule no longer applies due to Byleth. The smash devs do not give a damn about the National Dex garbage either, so that's a pretty invalid thing to hold against these 3.

Want: 70%
I think Rillaboom deserves the slot more than the other 2. He's a lot more unique than the others and I kinda want to see him fight DK. Speaking of DK, you could reuse DK's old Final Smash, but then buff it so it's not like the Smash Ball might as well have just expired, and make plants start smacking people around. Thats literally what his signature move, Drum Beating, is anyway. I'd be lying if I said he was my first pick from Gen 8 though. That would be Sirfetch'd.


Cinderace
Chance: 8%
I think Cinderace has the worst case for being playable in Smash. We've already had 2 different Fire Type starts as their own separate fighters since Charizard went solo in Smash 4. Sure the moveset would be a bit more unique since it would involve probably a lot of kicks, but it seems a little lame for a Pokemon moveset.

Want: 5%
I really don't see how Cinderace makes much sense for the smash rep. A soccer/football theme could be a cool moveset for a character, sure. But I'd really rather have the other 2. Cinderace doesn't do anything for me in terms of a smash appearance.


Inteleon
Chance: 22%
Does anyone else remember that James Bond was discussed for smash(I wanna say it was Melee) at one point because of how well GoldenEye did? Well, you can kinda get that with Inteleon. I'm not saying this is any kind of evidence towards him, just saying that it is a thing.

Want: 15%
My biggest issue is that Inteleon would probably feel to similar to Greninja. I don't really think we need another stealthy, Water Type Starter lizard playable in Smash. At least not yet.


Noms: Gnar x5

I really don't get why the Gen 8 Spirits Event doesn't deconfirm Gen 8 Pokémons tbh. What makes it so different from the others that it doesn't deconfirm?

3 reasons for me
1. There are lots of other options for gen 8 Pokemon spirits
2. Nobody thought the spirits we got had a chance to be a rep anyway
3. I forgot it happened and I don't feel like changing my post

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Gonna rate all three at once.
Rillaboom, Cinderace, and Intelleon.

Chance: 1%

I'm giving them the same chance I would give any characters that got a DLC spirit event from their game. If they were going to be chosen then they probably would have saved those Sword and Shield spirits for their spirit board.

Want: 0%
We have already gotten four newcomers/returning veterans combined from Pokemon in Ultimate. No series has ever gotten more than four newcomers/returning veterans in a single game (that's how much Fire Emblem got in Smash 4). If we were to get 1st Party characters/characters from series that already have reps, there are so many more series I would rather get their core characters than yet another Pokemon.

Noms: Terra Branford x5

 

[Jomosensual]

I really don't get why the Gen 8 Spirits Event doesn't deconfirm Gen 8 Pokémons tbh. What makes it so different from the others that it doesn't deconfirm?

Because only 4 spirits got added in and there's hundreds of options still available. I think it hurts but since there's so many options for them, including DLC and a ton of fan favorite pokemon, that it's not off the table in the same way series like Astral Chain or RE was, who had pretty much all their possible reps or most of them added as spirits

 

[DaUsername]

Okay, let's try this again. Hope I make it in time.

Zelda Assist Trophies
Chance (for both): 0%
First of all, yes, I am in "ATs won't be playable" camp, but even then it wouldn't matter. Midna and Skull Kid are both one-off characters who won't ever be in a mainline game again, so as far as Nintendo/Sakurai seem to be concerned, they don't matter. (You could say the same thing about most of the FE characters too, but you know, special treatment.) On top of that, their games were released a while ago, so they can't even get in as a walking commercial.
Unless one of their games gets remade again, or one of them somehow shows up in a new game, these two will never be playable in Smash Bros.

Want (for both): 75%
The Zelda series has been neglected in terms of newcomers for far too long. The last one we got was just a rehash of a rehash of Link, and that was twelve years ago. I've reached the point where I don't even care who we get as long as they're unique. Skull Kid and Midna are definitely the best choices out of the many potential Zelda characters.

Grass starter prediction: 45%
Fire starter prediction: 35%
Water starter prediction: 25%
Noms: Gen 8 Pokemon x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Gonna rate all three at once.
Rillaboom, Cinderace, and Intelleon.

If we were to get 1st Party characters, there are so many more series I would rather get their core characters than yet another Pokemon.

Ok so while that is true, there's another important thing to remember. Almost none of the other first party series are as important as Pokemon. The only series' that are equal or more important to Nintendo at the current moment are Mario, which has everyone who matters to it's main series excluding Toad(who I don't think is ever coming), and Zelda which at least in my opinion deserves more than just the triforce trio as reps

EDIT: Fixed a sentence

 

[Cadillac]

Ok, let me rate.

The Galar Starters
Chance: 1%
SwSh got spirits post game. I think base game spirits have a chance, but not the post game ones. I said this above, but according to Sakurai, Byleth's presentation was shot in November. He also said the DLC lineup was finalized. SwSh got spirits in November. If they were going to add a gen 8 rep, they would've saved the spirits for the dlc.

Want: 1%
I don't really want another Pokemon rep. Pokemon already have enough fighters, and what I wish for this pass is unrepresented franchises to get their attention they need. If we have to get one, I hope we get someone from an older, unrepresented generation like Gen 5 or a Mystery dungeon rep, like Grovyle & Celebi.

Predictions:
Obstagoon: 1%
Toxitricity: 1%
Melmetal: 3%
Urushifu: 2%

Noms: Hornet(Hollow Knight) x5

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Ok so while that is true, there's another important thing to remember. Almost none of the other first party series are as important as Pokemon. The only series' that are equal or more important to Nintendo at the current moment are Mario, which has everyone who matters to it's main series excluding Toad(who I don't think is ever coming), and Zelda which at least in my opinion deserves and none triforce trio rep

While that is true, Pokemon already has the most characters that any series has had in a single game at any point in Smash history. And as I said before it has already gotten a grand total of 4 combined returning veterans and newcomers within Ultimate alone. So I think it's importance has already gained it enough for this round. Let some of the smaller series eat at the table rather than giving even more food to the billionaire.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

This is gonna be interesting. Overall the spirit event could deconfirm, as important spirits like Zacian and Zamazenta were included. But with a lot of potential options, there's still a lot of room for a Gen 8 starter's spirit board.


Rillaboom

Chance: 50% - Rillaboom's position as a drum user would definitely appeal to Sakurai, and would naturally round out the starter type trio. We have two Fire starters and one Water starter, so a grass starter seems natural. Plus there's a somewhat decent amount of fan demand for Rillaboom and being a starter already gives it bonus points. But I feel like the benefits end there.

Rillaboom and its' base form Grookey are beaten out in both natural (Intelleon) and manufactured (Cinderace) popularity. While all three starters are getting Gigantamax forms and equal love in the upcoming DLC, I don't see Nintendo considering Rillaboom first. There's also the matter of the recently revealed Zarude. Grass monkey, new reveal, perfect for a promotional pick, making for tight competition for Rillaboom. Sceptile was skipped over and I don't see it coming any easier for Grass-Type starters.

Nonetheless, a lot of people are confident in Rillaboom's chances, and even if things are working against it, I can still see it happening!

Want: 70% - While I feel that Sword and Shield have a lot of problems (I'm surprised I'm even allowed to say this without people making threat accusations), 8th Gen still deserves representation (along with Gens 3 and 5 as well). We're long overdue for a grass-type starter and I feel like Rillaboom would be great for filling this niche. It always carries a huge drum around, and a drum beat-based moveset could make for an incredibly unique character, so I'd be all for it! Still I think it's a bit early for a Sword and Shield rep.


Cinderace

Chance: 70% - Out of all of the starters, I feel like Cinderace is Game Freak/TCPI's chosen manufactured popularity pokemon of this Gen, a lot like Greninja. Scorbunny was the first starter shown in the initial trailer, and is so far the only one featured after 20 episodes of the Gen 8 Pokemon anime, being a member of Gou's team (and getting a lot of screen time to boot). There's also rumors of this pass being lower budget, and given Cinderace's humanoid design, it'd be much more cost effective and easy to build a moveset around. Still, we just got a fire type starter, and given that Sakurai chose Incineroar there could likely be a choice given to Sakurai as to which of the three he'd like to make. So it likely comes down to which starter does he think is most appealing.

Want: 70% - While he wouldn't be as interesting as Rillaboom, and Big Chungus jokes aside, I still think Cinderace could make for a fun addition to Smash! If Sakurai really runs with the soccer player theme then we could be in for an interesting ball projectile-based moveset with elemental properties. THey could even have all of Cinderace's moves be done with the feet, kinda like a reverse Little Mac!


Intelleon

Chance: 30% - It could be a contender and does have a notable role as the most popular Galar starter. but despite what fan demand has done in the past, it rarely carries over into Pokemon. A good example would again be Incineroar. Rowlet was by far the most popular Alola starter and everyone very much expected Decidueye. But Sakurai's choice ultimately determined the winner, and outside of that it's usually the manufactured popularity Pokemon like Lucario and Greninja that make the roster. While Intelleon has moveset potential I feel that its' own popularity isn't going to give it a boost.

Want: 60% - Not my favorite of the trio but I think it has moveset potential! It'd likely pull a lot from Shiek and Greninja but focusing on beam moves could be cool. But while I'm always happy to see more non-Gen 1 Pokemon added to the roster, I'd prefer Rillaboom or Cinderace if we have to go with a starter.


Nominations:
Bubsy x5

Predictions:
Obstagoon - 3.94%
Urshifu - 20.46%
Melmetal - 5.33%
Toxtricity - 10.22%

 

[DanganZilla5]

Pokemon Sword and Shield starters final evolutions

Chance: 15% for all three

Nintendo is choosing the DLC and we got Byleth. There is definitely going to be another shill pick and it will probably be Pokemon because it's Pokemon. All three of these Pokemon have merit to them and moveset potential. However, the reason for the 15% is due to the spirit board and the DLC for SW/SH. I have to acknowledge that Byleth's direct was in November and Sakurai said that they already chose the DLC characters, and in that same month the Pokemon spirits were announced. That definitely hurts the chances for the starters but I don't think it's a killing blow though. One point I can bring up is that the starter spirits are only for the first evolution (I'm pretty sure they are not enhanceable). So the final evolutions of the starters don't have spirits yet.

But what makes me not confident in Rillaboom, Cinderace, and Intelleon is the fact that Sword/Shield is getting DLC and some of the new Pokemon revealed like Urshifu, for example, have been getting attention and it's very likely one of them will be the one to become playable. Still, the fact that they didn't make the starter spirits enhanceable into their final evolutions is worth noting and might mean something.

As for the Sword and Shield controversies, I highly, highly doubt that had an effect on anything related to Smash. The game still sold very well and has the potential for a shill pick.

Want:
Rillaboom and Intelleon - 52% for both
Cinderace - 35%

Rillaboom has a very cool design and it would be nice to have another grass type Pokemon on the roster. He has interesting moveset potential and would probably be a heavy character which we could use more of.

The same thing goes for Intelleon (except the heavyweight part). Cool design, interesting moveset potential, and I'm open to having another water type Pokemon.

As for Cinderace, I'm just not a fan of her. I can't see her moveset being too interesting and we just got Incineroar so I wouldn't be too excited for another fire Pokemon. I have nothing against fire types (I chose Tepig and Litten as my Gen 5 and Gen 7 starters respectively) but I'm more intrigued by how they could bring more elements of water and grass into a moveset in a way that we have not seen before.

The thing about Pokemon is that I'm not as big of a fan as I used to be and I'm quite satisfied with the selection that we do have in Smash already. At this point I'm more interested in new franchises.

Predictions:
Obstagoon - 0.90%
Toxitricity - 2%
Melmetal - 0.50%
Urshifu - 20%

Noms: Crypto x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Gen 8 Pokemon Final Starters

Chance: 0.01% While people are debating about base game spirits being a nail in the coffin. Post Base spirits are pretty much agreed to be a death sentence. Yet Pokemon Gen VIII is excused even though the spirit event happened in the same month Byleth's video was shot in and there was a Pokemon Themed online tourney to celebrate it's release.

Want: 1% Byleth left a bad taste in my month mainly for the fears I had that came true. So I'd rather not get a character from Mario, Pokemon, and Fire Emblem right now.

More Gen VIII Pokemon Prediction: 3.4%

Nominate Darksiders Rep x5

 

[jamesster445]

The Galarian Starter Trio
Chance: 50%
Want: 2% (Cinderace), 50% (Rillaboom), 51% (Intellion)

They technically didn't get spirits in the Sword/Shield event, so they're not completely out of the running. That said I'm underwhelmed by their designs, meanwhile there are a lot more interesting mon designs outside the starters. Cinderace gets the lowest score cause his soccer player motif is the least interesting. Rillaboom could potentially be the Rhythymm fighter that I've been waiting for. Meanwhile Intellion's apy motif could be the opportunity for Sakurai to finally add James Bond to Smash. Intellion gets a slight boost because Modders can turn him into Gex.

Nominations: Lora and Jin/Haze x5

 

[3DSNinja]

The dynamic Trio
Chance:0%: We never get two new generations in the same Smash game. As well, the Gen 8 spirits make no sense to have happened if we were getting a gen 8 mon. Also, I feel like Samurai would want to pick a Pokemon that wasn't a starter considering the last two Pokemon were starters, making Toxtricity probably the most likely Ben 8 mon. ALso, if a new Golden Sun is happening, Isaac would make much more sense as a shill because he's much more popular in the smash community. I honestly don't see a gem 8 Pokemon happening.
Want: HELL NO (0%): Honestly my least wanted for ultimate. I would honestly take Goku over these guys. The Ben 8 starters are my least favorite starters except Gen 2. And Gen 8 in general I don't want in Smash except for Sirfetch'd.
Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Cinderace
Chance 25 - I think if we get a starter as playable, and I think if we get a Pokemon it'll be a starter, Cinderace had a good shot since it feels like Nintendo has a solid love for the fire starter for whatever reason. There's a reason to pick them with the DLC coming out this Summer and Fall(hopefully, who knows what else Coronavirus could do). And Cinderace is pretty popular worldwide. I wouldn't be shocked to see it be a Pokemon rep added in. Only major knock I have is that we got spirits for Pokemon already, and while I don't think those are necessarily killers like the anti Pokemon people are pushing since there weren't any major players taken out with the spirits and there was only 4 of them, it still does make we wonder why those were added in the first place. Not that they had to save spirits for the series with plenty more out there, but with so much content out there I think there's still a chance, but less of one. Also, uniqueness of moveset is a bit of a question with 2 fire types in the game but Sakurai could probably find a way around that.

Want 45 - Was my starter pick in the Gen 8 games. I wouldn't hate it just for that. Not sure I'm really interested getting another fire starter but I wouldnt reject it either. Feel like this is the one that would get the most meltdowns and the level of annoying those are also drops my rating very slightly.

Rillaboom
Chance 25 - Think in general Rillaboom would be the lowest chance score if it wasn't for people requesting a grass type starter. That carries a little weight here because while there's some Pokemon fatigue going around, its the one that has the highest moveset potential as well. Also, as we've seen with Byleth and Corrin, when Sakurai gets a character to work on that he knows might not be the most well received he usually pulls something out of his bag of tricks to try and make them as uncontroversial as possible, such as making Byleth use all the relics instead of just the sword or Corrin having one of the most unique and in my opinion, fun moveset in the game. I could see the same situation happening here to try and calm the people that would go ape**** over another Pokemon. Think it's about even with Cinderace right now.

Want 50 - Yeah, I'd like it. A rhythm based moveset could be really fun to play and it would be unique for sure. We could also finally put to bed the Pokemon type triangle requests which would be nice.

Intelleon
Chance 10 - Yeah, I dont think this one is too likely. Water based weapons are really cool, but we have a lot of them with Greninja already. It also doesn't have the popularity the grass type has or the overall popularity Cinderace has. Feel like if I had to put my chips in the middle on a Gen 8 starter then Intelleon isn't the one I'd go with.

Want 40 - Could be fun to play as. Probably the Pokemon I'm the least interested in seeing get in, and people are going to be annoying about this one too so that doesn't do any favors here.


Also, as an aside note, if you think any of the "controversy" with the games is going to be the reason a Pokemon character doesnt get in, then you're probably way too far into whatever bubble you're in. The national dexers complaints and whatever else went on that I tuned out after a while didn't stop it from being one of the best selling switch games of the year, and based on that Nintendo will ignore it completely

Predicts for the day 2 of Pokemon
Melmetal - .5
Obstagoon - .5
Toxtricity - 6.8
Urshifu - 5.1

Noms:
Falinks x5

 

[NintenRob]

This is interesting. Would we get another Starter Pokemon?


At first glance Cinderace appears to be the most prominent, two signature moves. A signature hidden ability that is clearly superior to the others (and identical to the most popular Pokemons hidden ability). And he did score better than the other two

However there are two potential points against Cinderace.

Ash doesn't have Scorbunny, the companion does. Only three Pokemon in Smash come from an evolutionary line Ash doesn't own. (Jigglypuff, Mewtwo, Lucario).

We've just got Incineroar, we already have Charizard. Fire is so overused. Please. At least he's cooler than Incineroar. If he gets in and I buy him, can he replace Incineroar? From existence.


Rillaboom has a fair bit of support, we don't have a fully evolved grass starter yet. I'd rather it not be Rillaboom. He's inferior to both Sceptile and Decidueye. And he'd have to lug around that drum. He does get special appearance in the credits to sword and shield. But he was poorest scorer in the Pokemon poll of these three, by a wide margin.


Inteleon I like, I think the spy motif would be a great moveset. He's in the middle ground in popularity. And Gmax would probably be the easiest to translate into a Final Smash.

But he'd probably overlap with Greninja more than Cinderace would with Charizard and Incineroar.

Obviously Inteleon wouldn't be a Ninja, but he'd likely be speedy character with a projectile. And probably even a higher jumper.


I just don't there's a right answer for Starter this time, and even if there was. They got it wrong last time (yes I'm still salty, I just have to keep telling myself that the one before that was literal perfection)


Final point? Maybe don't pick another starter. They already take up half the Pokemon roster.

Cinderace
Chance: 25%
Want: 55%

Inteleon
Chance: 27%
Want: 67%

Rillaboom
Chance: 22%
Want: 35%

Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5


Prediction
Melmetal: 2.2%
Obstagoon: 0.2%
Toxtricity: 9.8%
Urshifu: 5.6%

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

I'm not gonna bother giving each of them funny names.

Chance: 1% for each
Want: 0% for each
I really do think the Spirit event counts as a deconfirm. The timing just doesn't make sense. They could've easily saved those spirits for a potential inclusion. They weren't for promoting Sword/Shield because 1: They released Astral Chain spirits months after its release 2: Pokémon is the last game that needs to be promoted and 3: I really don't see some spirits being an effective promotion tool anyways. Three Houses didn't get one so why would it be any different here? Let me guess "because it's Pokémon", yeah right.

Also, I don't recall a Pokémon ever getting into Smash due to TPC pushing it. I think characters like Greninja and Incinaroar were all Sakurai's decisions and he doesn't decide the dlc anymore.

I'm quite glad about the Spirit event cause I'm really feeling the Pokémon fatigue as of late. I didn't buy gen 8 cause I didn't think it was worth my time and money. I'm not saying I won't touch the series ever again but at this point having a Sword/Shield rep would give me the same distaste I have for most FE characters. There's a large pool of Nintendo owned characters that I would much rather see and would age better as inclusion.

Btw, the Galar trio have the worst set of final evolutions out of all starters. I don't like a single one of them.

Obstagoon: 0.87%
Toxtricity: 6.14%
Melmetal: 1.02%
Urshifu: 9.88%
Alucard x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Dang this ain't going well for the starters so far. BTW gen 5 has the worst starter set. Serperior can't carry the literal trash that is Emboar and Samurott isn't exactly carrying his weight either. Serperior isn't even amazing, it's above average at best. Just thought I'd correct that little misconception before I went to sleep.

Oh, and some of the salt I'm reading rivals what I find in League of Legends. That's quite the accomplishment.

 

[Cadillac]

Dang this ain't going well for the starters so far. BTW gen 5 has the worst starter set. Serperior can't carry the literal trash that is Emboar and Samurott isn't exactly carrying his weight either. Serperior isn't even amazing, it's above average at best. Just thought I'd correct that little misconception before I went to sleep.

Oh, and some of the salt I'm reading rivals what I find in League of Legends. That's quite the accomplishment.

Gen 5 starters aren't that good for fighter candidates... I would prefer someone like Meloetta, since she might be able to bring back the Zelda/Sheik transformation mechanic.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Absolutely not

Double zeroes

Yeah, of course the Spirit event that happened after Vol 2 was decided disconfirms them. Not because they're Spirits, or because there aren't any Spirits to make a Spirit Board out of. It's because there's literally no reason to make the Spirit event if they were already planning to add a SwSh rep later. It's not like timing is a factor, the event happened too late to promote the game and too early to promote the DLC. And Byleth shows that if they want a fighter, they don't even have to time their release with the game they're advertising.

Keep in mind that I don't hate SwSh, I always thought the Dexit controversy and the complaints about animations were moronic. I do really like Galar itself. But the starters aren't great. Rillaboom is terrible, Intelleon is whatever, Cinderace is okay but honestly underwhelming. Scorbunny I kinda like, the other base forms I really don't. And I'm super tired of the formulaic designs of starters where they're just a cute small animal and then evolve into an anthro and that's it. I'd also like to specifically point out that imo Rillaboom is only supported because of the grass-starter quota bull**** and because of memes so of all three that's the one I'd like the least.

As for Smash, I don't want more ****ing Pokemon. There's too many. And I want Pokemon to stop getting special treatment. I don't care that it's the biggest franchise ever, there's already like 10 of them and one's Incineroar so we've reached bottom of the barrel tier picks.

If we have to get a Pokemon, make it not a shill one. Make it an actually popular Pokemon. Hate to be a Genwunner, but get Meowth, or Eevee. Hell, if you don't want Gen 1, get, I dunno, Gardevoir or Plusle & Minun or Mimikyu. Get creative. Look for something that's organically popular. Sakurai got lucky with Greninja, but nobody wants to feel like they're being sold on something.

And if you have to do the most recent Gen, do something original for the love of God. The game's been out for a while and there's plenty of precedent to show that when planning out a character selection, they save a spot for Pokemon and choose later. So, hypothetically speaking, if they had wanted to get a SwSh Pokemon they could have waited to see who was popular. And starters all the time is predictable, boring, and frankly poor representation of a series that has hundreds of characters more to offer. Give us Zacian or Zamacenta, or Wooloo, or Sirfetch'd, or Toxtricity. Make choices that won't age like milk out in the sun.

But back to my original point, no Pokemon please.

Noms: Kiryu x5
Honestly I don't know how to predict tomorrow's characters because I'm flabbergasted that people are giving scores over 0% despite DLC Spirits. Guess FE always getting special treatment again is a strong argument in favor of Pokemon getting special treatment again. I'm just gonna roll d100s for these.

Obstagoon: 81.35%
Toxtricity: 38.05%
Melmetal: 86.76%
Urshifu: 70.64%

 

[WaddleKing]

If we have to get a Pokemon, make it not a shill one. Make it an actually popular Pokemon. Hate to be a Genwunner, but get Meowth, or Eevee. Hell, if you don't want Gen 1, get, I dunno, Gardevoir or Plusle & Minun or Mimikyu. Get creative. Look for something that's organically popular. Sakurai got lucky with Greninja, but nobody wants to feel like they're being sold on something.

I think to that part right there it kind of comes down to them not realizing they can also rep multiple generations and aspects at once if they handle some of those creatively, if they have the options to have some unique aspects similar to PT but not in the exact same way; such as Eevee using Eeveelutions in some form of manner, Meowth having regional forms as alts and/or using TR associated Pokemon like Wobbuffet to assist it, and things like Gardevoir could possibly team up with Gallade (though unsure how that'd work out honestly, mainly needed another example).

Point is taking innovation with how you make them work, which in turn can lead to greater representation through a Pokemon, especially ones with persistent multi generational relevancy.

 

[Cadillac]

Absolutely not

Double zeroes

Yeah, of course the Spirit event that happened after Vol 2 was decided disconfirms them. Not because they're Spirits, or because there aren't any Spirits to make a Spirit Board out of. It's because there's literally no reason to make the Spirit event if they were already planning to add a SwSh rep later. It's not like timing is a factor, the event happened too late to promote the game and too early to promote the DLC. And Byleth shows that if they want a fighter, they don't even have to time their release with the game they're advertising.

Keep in mind that I don't hate SwSh, I always thought the Dexit controversy and the complaints about animations were moronic. I do really like Galar itself. But the starters aren't great. Rillaboom is terrible, Intelleon is whatever, Cinderace is okay but honestly underwhelming. Scorbunny I kinda like, the other base forms I really don't. And I'm super tired of the formulaic designs of starters where they're just a cute small animal and then evolve into an anthro and that's it. I'd also like to specifically point out that imo Rillaboom is only supported because of the grass-starter quota bull**** and because of memes so of all three that's the one I'd like the least.

As for Smash, I don't want more ****ing Pokemon. There's too many. And I want Pokemon to stop getting special treatment. I don't care that it's the biggest franchise ever, there's already like 10 of them and one's Incineroar so we've reached bottom of the barrel tier picks.

If we have to get a Pokemon, make it not a shill one. Make it an actually popular Pokemon. Hate to be a Genwunner, but get Meowth, or Eevee. Hell, if you don't want Gen 1, get, I dunno, Gardevoir or Plusle & Minun or Mimikyu. Get creative. Look for something that's organically popular. Sakurai got lucky with Greninja, but nobody wants to feel like they're being sold on something.

And if you have to do the most recent Gen, do something original for the love of God. The game's been out for a while and there's plenty of precedent to show that when planning out a character selection, they save a spot for Pokemon and choose later. So, hypothetically speaking, if they had wanted to get a SwSh Pokemon they could have waited to see who was popular. And starters all the time is predictable, boring, and frankly poor representation of a series that has hundreds of characters more to offer. Give us Zacian or Zamacenta, or Wooloo, or Sirfetch'd, or Toxtricity. Make choices that won't age like milk out in the sun.

But back to my original point, no Pokemon please.

Noms: Kiryu x5
Honestly I don't know how to predict tomorrow's characters because I'm flabbergasted that people are giving scores over 0% despite DLC Spirits. Guess FE always getting special treatment again is a strong argument in favor of Pokemon getting special treatment again. I'm just gonna roll d100s for these.

Obstagoon: 81.35%
Toxtricity: 38.05%
Melmetal: 86.76%
Urshifu: 70.64%

The thing for Byleth is, while they were added as a fighter, they did not have a spirit event when TH was released. So I think this further cements my thoughts about we're not getting a Pokemon rep.

 

[Ninjaed]

Storm, earth and fire, heed my call!

Chance: 1%
Not a zero on the off-chance Nintendo decides another pokemon would be nice but... I seriously doubt it. Pokémon SwSh got a Spirits Event at the time of Byleth's release or in other words, at the time of the FP2 announcement. Add to this that there's already 10 pokemon in Smash + dozens of pokeballs + several stages and you get the single most represented series in smash, even more so than the chubby plumber himself. I don't see it happening... then again, I didn't see many doubtful decisions concerning Pokémon coming: dexit, pokemon home, etc. Plus we've gotten Greninja and Incineroar but no standalone grass starter so who knows.

Want: 0%
Too many pokemon. Not liking the design of the starters nor the legendaries, especially Rillaboom's whom I find to be the likeliest. There are so many more interesting reps (even in Pokémon in fact) that I'd really rather not have a gen 8 starter as DLC.

Predictions: (wow are we really voting 4 candidates in a single day?! This has to be a new record)
Obstagoon - 0.4%
Toxtricity - 1.1%
Melmetal - 3%
Urshifu - 5%

Nominations: Segata Sanshiro x5

 

[3BitSaurus]

Gonna rate the three together because I feel the same about them all.

Rillaboom, Cinderace and Intelleon
Chance: 0.1%
Honestly, with the way Astral Chain and Ring Fit were treated in comparison to Three Houses, there's literally no reason for me to believe that Sword and Shield will be any different. If they really wanted to, they would have withheld the Spirits for a DLC Spirit Board. But they didn't. And even if they could add a promotional Gen 8 mon, it would probably one more related to their Expansion Pass at this point.

One last detail is that despite what people say about there "needing" to be a grass starter, thus giving the theoretical best chance to Rillaboom, it's actually good to remember that the Scorbunny line seems to be the one that the anime is pushing the most, and as we all know, anime and merch are a big driving force behind TPC's decisions.

Want: 0%
Look. I'm a long time fan of Pokémon. But Gen 8 is actually the first time where I honestly didn't like any of the final starter evolutions (especially Rillaboom). So that would already be a no for me. Then there's the fact that my two favorite generations were skipped in terms of playable characters and will likely not get another shot because of TPC's policy of pushing only the mons from whatever the "shiny new gen" is and the boat of my excitement for more Pokémon in Smash has sailed a long time ago.

At this point, it's more of the same kind of content and it's not even a really creative choice (Zacian and Toxtricity would have that, at least). If we were to get another Pokémon, I'd much rather it be from an older game, preferably gens 2, 3 or 5.

I wouldn't be mad if one of them got in, but my reaction would be along the lines of Greninja and Incineroar: "Eh, whatever. Next!".

Predictions
Obstagoon: 0.6%
Toxtricity: 1%
Melmetal: 0.2%
Urshifu: 5.4%

Nominations
Ahri (League of Legends) x 5

 

[ZTurtle]

RIllaboom

Chance: 20%
Could happen, but he really doesn't seem to be as popular as the other two. Sure Incineroar was probably less popular than Decidueye overall, but Nintendo's choosing the characters, and I think that'll mean they'll stick closer to what the Pokemon Company wants to promote.
Want: 25%
I like RIllaboom, it was my starter and all, and my favorite of the Galar Starters, but I'd really rather not have more Pokemon in the game. I could see him being fun enough, but not enough to make me actively want him.

Cinderace:

Chance: 70%
Seems to be the one Pokemon Company is priming to be their new Greninja, and it does seem to be the most popular of the three overall currently. I can see them wanting to shill it.

Want: 1%
My least favorite of the trio. It feels so blatantly engineered to be the most popular and such, that I can't help but feel rather negative towards it. I don't hate it, but to see it in Smash, especially when we've already gotten a fully evolved humanoid furry Fire Starter as a Newcomer would leave an unpleasant feeling for me.

Inteleon:
Chance: 25%
Seems more popular than Rillaboom, but for some reason it doesn't strike me as being one that they'd choose. Again, I think that they want Cinderace to be the star-child starter of this gen.

Want: 15%
I actually do rather like Inteleon, but I do honestly think he'd feel kinda redundant since we've got Greninja. Sure the motif of Secret Agent Water Chameleon isn't strictly identical to Water Ninja Frog, but I feel there's enough overlap to make me prefer a more distinct mon.

 

[BowserKing]

Rillaboom

Chance: 25%. While this Pokémon has similarities to Donkey Kong, he is heavily suggested. He is also a grass type starter, which is also heavily requested, and of all the Grass Types, Rillaboom has the least amount of competition. Rillaboom does have some, but chances are, Rillaboom could pull this off and join the fight.

Want: 80%. While I'd prefer it if Decidueye or Sceptile is the next Grass-Type Pokémon, Rillaboom could be fun to play as, and could preform an equivalent to Donkey Kong's former Final Smash. Drums would be a big part of Rillaboom's moveset, setting it apart from the other Pokémon, and overall, Rillaboom would be a fun addition to the roaster.

Cinderace

Chance: 25%. While we have Charizard and Incineroar representing fire type Pokémon, Cinderace has lots of popularity on it's side, plus potential moveset as well. Cinderace does face competition, and Rillaboom might be able to defeat Cinderace due to fans wanting a balance of water, grass and fire types. But who knows who will happen to be the next Pokémon rep.

Want: 90%. I chose the Scorbunny path in Pokémon Shield, and Cinderace is very fun to play as in that game. Cinderace would be fun in this game too. Cinderace has moveset potential, including Double Kick for Side Special, Bounce for Up Special and Pyro Ball for Final Smash. Cinderace would be a worthy addition to the roaster.

Inteleon

Chance: 25%. While we have Greninja as the Third form Water starter, Inteleon has popularity and unique abilities on it's side. It still has competition, not just from Rillaboom and Cinderace, but also from multiple other characters as well. But who knows, Inteleon could show up unexpectedly. We have been surprised before.

Want: 80%. Inteleon would totally be a fun character to play as, it would have moves that are unique to it's style. I mean, it has moves based of snipers, not really much characters have moves based on that. Inteleon would be a fun addition as well, and who knows what will happen in the future, unfortunately outside of E3 for this year, which is upsetting.

Predictions, Obstagoon (15%), Toxitricity (30%) Melmetal (15%) and Urshifu (10%)

Noms: 2 for Falinks and 3 for Returning Stages

 

[fogbadge]

lets see i recon theyve all got the same chance which is about 40% and thats due to the fact that the only first party weve had so far has been from a series we all know sakurai has a thing for. most other reasons ive seen i dont think are actually true, really i dont think theres as much in there way as people think

anyway the wants vary so

rhilaboom 50% hed be a pretty different character so hed bring some cool stuff but hes far from my first choice

cinderace 0% im ok with him but he is based on a toxic culture of violence which i dont think we should validate

intelleon 100% pure bias but hes my favourite and i think hed be the best to play as

 

[RouffWestie]

Rillaboom
Chance: 1%
Rillaboom doesn't have much to offer. It isn't the one being marketed the most, and it isn't prominent in the anime. I have extremely high doubts Nintendo would choose Rillaboom for a Pokemon newcomer.
Want: 0%
I don't have any interest in this Pokemon. I'm not a fan of their design or their potential moveset. Monkeys playing drums isn't a particularly unique idea.

Intelleon
Chance: 10%
I think there's a small chance Nintendo could have seen this and realized how much like it is. They could have chosen this one under the assumption, "this cool water-type was popular, so this one will be too!" Still, I'm not sure they'd stray from the marketing-based tactics they use when Pokemon are being chosen for Smash.
Want: 0%
This thing makes me appreciate the fact that was chosen back in Smash 4. I can't see Intelleon introducing any genuinely new mechanics or styles of combat to Smash. It's just very derivative and predictable.

Cinderace
Chance: 99%
The clearest frontrunner among first-party DLC newcomers. Scorbunny was already revealed to have a major role in the new anime, so at that point it should have been obvious. In the anime it already evolved, so the eventual Cinderace reveal only makes sense.
Want: 5%
I'd call Cinderace one of the more tolerable creations of the modern Pokemon design philosophy. It's still not a very inspired concept (dude what if we made a bunny, but like, it plays soccer XD) so I wouldn't be jumping out of my seat for it. Still, it's almost as good as some of the starters from older generations.