Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[DrifloonEmpire]

Obstagoon

Chance: 5% - Obstagoon's ship has pretty much sailed at this point. While the Pokemon Company promoted it as the big example for regional variants that got new evolutions, I don't feel that it would be chosen over the starters. It has Obstruct which could make for some interesting defensive play but I don't see it as a Pokemon that Nintendo would want to continue to market or as inspirational by Sakurai.

Want: 20% - Regional variants are one of my favorite concepts in Pokemon and I'd love to see one pop up in Smash at one point. Using defensive play I'm sure something interesting could be created for Obstagoon, but at the same time there are a lot of Pokemon I'd rather see first.


Melmetal

Chance: 1% - As cool as Melmetal is, I think its' chance has sailed at this point. The GO promotion for it is over and it was more marketed for the Gen 7 games with the ability to transfer to Let's GO Pikachu Eevee, along with its' appearance as a member of Ash's team in the Sun and Moon Anime. So they'll likely want to choose a Pokemon that's more tied to Gen 8. That said, though, it did get a gigantamax form that has yet to be released, so we could see Melmetal make a new impact soon!

Want: 40% - Normally I wouldn't give a high rating to the addition of a mythical for marketing, but Melmetal's one of the rare exceptions. While I don't think it'd be easy to come up with an inspired moveset for it, it has a lot of sentimentality factor for me that really makes up for it. That being the Sun and Moon anime. Captured by Ash in Episode 111, it became a fun and still competent member of the team who had tons of funny jokes and great companionship with Rowlet. It pulled its' weight in the team and despite its' swift defeat in the Alola league finals it did more than its' fair share to help Ash achieve his first league victory! (much moreson than fellow marketing Pokemon Lana's Eevee, which mainly existed to be cute. I don't get the whole Eevee craze). The Sun and Moon anime has a lot of sentimental value for me and has become one of my favorite shows, so seeing another piece of it join Smash would be wonderful! Plus one of his buddies from Ash's Alola team (Incineroar) is already on the roster, alongside other Ash Pokemon like Pikachu. Charizard, and Greninja, so he wouldn't be alone on that front either!


Toxtricity

Chance: 5% - One of the fan favorites from Gen 8 and for a good reason. A unique typing, cool design, punk rock aesthetic, and two well-designed forms, it's not difficult to see why it became so popular with the fanbase! It's got a ton of moveset potential yet still has a humanoid stance, so it'd be both unique and easier for the developers to make. If Sakurai wants to try for popular fan requests this pass, then I think Toxtricity would be one he may go for!

Though there are a couple of problems that really hinder Toxtricity's potential inclusion. First would be the fact that it wasn't revealed until the game was released. While Game Freak and TCPi decided to reveal much less info in prerelease than they did for Sun and Moon, Toxtricity wasn't chosen as a Pokemon they wanted to push, and as we've seen before Pokemon they like to push often get added over naturally popular fan favorites. The other factor is the fact that because of this, it's popularity has only been a thing for a few months, and all of it occurring in late 2019, right after the pass was already decided. While they could have reserved a spot for a Gen 8 mon and waited to see what was popular (there'd be little to no negotiations involved so it'd be quite flexible) I don't see it as a realistic situation, unfortunately.

Want: 60% - Super unique design, another poison type for the roster (and one that'd focus on the poison more than Ivysaur did), another non-Gen 1, a lot of potential for cool sound-based moves, and a lot of personality? Sign me up! Toxtricity is a Gen 8 favorite of mine as well, enough to make me breed a competitive shiny! Its' design seems suited perfectly for Smash, and I'd love to see the amount of personality Sakurai would have put into his animations like he did with Incineroar. This would be a Pokemon pick that a lot of people, including myself, would be very happy with!

Also his design is the closest we'll probably ever see to a Deadly Six member getting into Smash xP


Urshifu

Chance: 40% - The one I've been worried about. Bandwagon or not, it feels like things are lining up for it to be the next promotional Pokemon. Byleth was done to promote the Three Houses DLC, so I can see Urshifu doing the same to promote the expansion pass (even with the spirit event). It is given to you in Isle of Armor to accompany you throughout your adventures in the pass and has two different forms it can become, which shows how much they want to push for its' popularity. It's current, it promotes something, and it is a TPC engineered popularity mon, Nintendo would definitely push for it to be added to Smash. Let's not forget that the Isle of Armor is slated for release in June, right around the time E3 was supposed to be. A Smash reveal of Urshifu there right before the release of the Expansions would hypothetically put Urshifu on everyone's minds, which would be seen as good business strategy by Nintendo.

Want: 10% - While I love Karate, along with me wanting to play the DLC before giving a final verdict on Urshifu, at the moment I can't say I'm too excited for it. While bears are cool, I don't see a Karate bear standing out among the cast in terms of moveset uniqueness or design uniqueness. Overall at the moment I just don't see what he would bring to the table other than being a promotional pick.


Nominations:
Bubsy x5

Predictions:
Standalone Stage - 19.34%
Echo Fighter - 12.63%

 

[Ridrool64]

Non-starters

For the trio of Toxtricity, Melmetal and Obstagoon I will give them all 0% chance. I don't think we're ever getting a non-starter, non-legendary ever again, Lucario was the last one considering neither Zoroark nor Lycanroc could make it. Melmetal at least is a Mythical, but I doubt we're gonna get those because consistently available Mythical Pokémon consists of exactly one. And there was a Spirit Event that covered the base game in particular.

I am also going to say that Toxtricity and Obstagoon get a 20% want solely because a non-starter Pokémon after Lucario is as much of a holy grail to me as a non-Triforce Zelda character for many people. Still, I think Gen 8 doesn't deserve a representative, at least not the base game. Melmetal is older than that so it gets a pass, 21%.

Urshifu (Chance): 99% in conjunction with Calyrex, but 50% on its own.

This is one of your two potential new Pokémon reps for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate's DLC, and your promotional pick.

By virtue of being post-launch, it dodges the Spirit Event that whacked the entire base game of Pokémon Sword/Shield, but neither of the DLC parts. Urshifu is an easy fit due to its design and stances, which means that a moveset is obvious, it probably already dances in Sakurai's head, so he wouldn't have reason to reject it even if it doesn't exactly bring anything we can't find in other characters.

But why give Pokémon another spot? Because, Pokémon is money. This is the Nintendo cash cow, and people will eat it up. Why Urshifu over Kubfu or Calyrex? For the former, because Urshifu is the one with the gimmick and the one with the main focus in terms of the Isle of Armor. Why not Calyrex, then? Calyrex, actually could feasibly get in over Urshifu, but only if Sakurai could envision a moveset for it, and only if Nintendo picked the DLC to an extent after. In a sense, I'm not ready to pull the trigger on which one will get in, but I feel like Urshifu has a few more talking points in its favor.

Pokémon is about as ubiquitous as Fire Emblem when it comes to newcomer spots, with Fighter's Pass Volume 1 being literally the ONLY time Pokémon did not get a character added to the game in some form. And Pokémon Sword and Shield, regardless of all their controversies, still managed to make bank. So it's not a promotion for the DLC, but instead, the opposite: a character added to promote Smash by piggybacking off of the popularity of Pokémon, a relatively simple yet brilliant marketing move. Gotta make the dough.

Urshifu (Want): 10%.

In general everything that stands with the starters stands here. Plus, we haven't even seen the bear in action. I would rather not get another character picked before they were given a chance to prove themselves, Corrin certainly wasn't and Byleth was one spot too early to have cleanly proven it. But hey, I won't be too mad about it. The DLC was a redemption story for something I expected to be rolled into a third version.

Paper Mario x 5. Haven't gotten individual stages yet and right now it seems like we aren't going to get any outside of Challenger Packs, 0.53% for those. Echo Fighters are ironically easier to make, and could be bundled with Challenger Packs or sold separately as apologies for extra-long development time. 3.20%, since most people believe that it's all uniques from here on out.

 

[BowserKing]

Obstagoon

Chance: 15%. Given the popularity of Obstagoon, the chance of it appearing is quite decent. Of course, there is other Pokémon that would compete to be the next rep for Smash. That and there is the fact that we technically have two dark type reps, but Obstagoon would still have a chance to be playable for this game, or at least the sequels.

Want: 90%. I did catch an Obstagoon (so I could trade it for ), but I'm currently having my Linoone in training so I could play as one. Either way, Obstagoon would be fun to play as, with some deadly moves, and overall, Obstagoon would be one of the best choices for this game, sequel or this game.

Toxtricity

Chance: 15%. This is another of the many popular Pokémon from sword and shield. The fact that there is two versions would give it uniqueness to the group. Of course, competition, and that we have two electric types would push it down, but we do need another poison type however, and who knows what will happen.

Want: 85%. This Pokémon is one of the most recently evolved ones I got, and I think Toxtricity would be a fun Pokémon to play as, not only with it's deadly electric attacks, but it's poison attacks would give it uniqueness in the cast. Overall, Toxtricity would be a fun addition to the roaster, and who knows who will show up.

Melmetal

Chance: 15%. While this Pokémon did not debut in Sword or Shield, it has popularity and being a steel type that brings in uniqueness to the mix. It being a mythical helps since we technically don't have a mythical being playable (despite Mewtwo being a Mew clone, Mewtwo is a Legendary). Competition is a concern, but who knows.

Want: 80%. Another fun Pokémon to play as, and Melmetal would have some deadly moves that would give in uniqueness in the roaster. I could see R.O.B and Megaman team up with Melmetal against a deadly threat, but who knows. Melmetal would be another fun addition to the roaster and who knows, there could be more potential.

Urshifu

Chance: 10%. I'm giving this rating since we don't know too much about this Pokémon, at least not yet. Competition might defeat it, and chances are, there are other Pokémon that most likely get in before. Plus there is the fact that Urshifu is DLC in sword and shield, so that is something we would look at when that is released.

Want: Since I don't know too much information about this Pokémon, I would say 55% for now. It could have unique moves, and who knows, it could be fun to play as. It also has two unique styles, but which one is getting in? Who knows what will happen, and Urshifu's inclusion would be a fun one, but most likely, Urshifu would be a late entry.

Predictions: Standalone Stages (20%) and Echo Fighters (25%)

Noms: 2 for Echo: Dark Bowser (14E) and 3 for Decidueye

 

[Cadillac]

It's a little disheartening to see how many people are writing off SwSh because, "Spirit event. Wouldn't have made one if DLC character."

I would like to point out that just because Sakurai's statement about the second pass being finalized and the SwSh Spirit event both happened in November doesn't mean the Spirits were made after the pass was finalized. For all we know, the Spirits could've been in the process of being made since late summer/early fall. The fact that we've had three first-parties in a row that recieved Spirits months after their game's release should suggest that some Spirits might either (1) require more time to make than we think, or (2) are set aside for several months as they patiently wait for their turn for a Spirit event.

I'd also like to point out that we're heading toward a very likely scenario where we won't know who the first DLC character is until E3. That's a long gap between Byleth and F6. If they already had SwSh Spirits planned or were already in the process of making them before realizing it would get a DLC character, why wait for what could potentially be more than a year between SwSh's release and the DLC character? Might as well celebrate alongside the launch of the game. It's also possible that they knew people would quickly make a connection after Byleth's reveal if SwSh never received any Spirits.

Who knows? They might celebrate the expansion pass with another spirit event.

 

[Cosmic77]

Who knows? They might celebrate the expansion pass with another spirit event.

Maybe, maybe not. Just laying out some reasons why I think a chance score of "0%" or something close to that might be a little premature and unfair. I feel like people should at least acknowledge that it's still possible even with a Spirit event, and that SwSh of all recent Switch games is probably one of the most likely ones to get a character.

Reminds me of when virtually every first-party character was getting similar scores during the first pass because we got four third-parties in a row.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Abstaining on all but Toxtricity. However, I would like to mention something regarding chances for Gen 8. I don't think they're disconfirmed unless those Pokémon appeared in the spirit event itself. And who appeared in the event? The baby forms of the starters, the box legendaries, and a few random choices like Morpeko.

Toxtricity
Chance: 55%
Want: 100%

Toxtricity is one of the most popular Pokémon this generation, and even placed #2 in all of Galar for Pokémon day. (Only being beaten by Dragapult.) However, calling it "the Lucario of Gen 8" is an overstatement. Was Toxtricity the first Pokémon to be revealed this gen, and get its own movie? No. Back on topic, Toxtricity comes with a lot of moveset potential revolving around its Poison/Electric typing, and its use of powerful sound based attacks like Boomburst and Overdrive.

Toxtricity is also my favorite Pokémon this generation, hence why I nominated it. It's kind of a shame that people are hating on every single Pokémon suggestion because "too many Pokémon". I can understand it for Fire Emblem considering half of the roster shares very similar moves with a select few exceptions, but almost every Pokémon we have on the roster has a wide variety of moves at its disposal, and newcomers bring something entirely new to the table. However, I am getting kind of tired of seeing starter Pokémon, so bringing a Pokémon like Toxtricity to Smash would feel much more exciting. Plus, Toxtricity comes with a massive amount of personality to fit his rocker theme, and has two different forms with different personality types. Gen 8 also comes with great music tracks, and I would love to see them in Smash. Will Tox get in? Not sure. But does it have a decent chance? Yes, at least in my opinion.

Who wouldn't want these guys in Smash?

Standalone stages: 5.24%
Echo Fighters: 0%

Gonna nominate something stupid: Fortnite character x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

It's a little disheartening to see how many people are writing off SwSh because, "Spirit event. Wouldn't have made one if DLC character."

I would like to point out that just because Sakurai's statement about the second pass being finalized and the SwSh Spirit event both happened in November doesn't mean the Spirits were made after the pass was finalized. For all we know, the Spirits could've been in the process of being made since late summer/early fall. The fact that we've had three first-parties in a row that recieved Spirits months after their game's release should suggest that some Spirits might either (1) require more time to make than we think, or (2) are set aside for several months as they patiently wait for their turn for a Spirit event.

I'd also like to point out that we're heading toward a very likely scenario where we won't know who the first DLC character is until E3. That's a long gap between Byleth and F6. If they already had SwSh Spirits planned or were already in the process of making them before realizing it would get a DLC character, why wait for what could potentially be more than a year between SwSh's release and the DLC character? Might as well celebrate alongside the launch of the game. It's also possible that they knew people would quickly make a connection after Byleth's reveal if SwSh never received any Spirits.

Yeah, don't see how a Spirit event takes months to make. That's a stretch. Especially when we don't know when the roster for the second pass was decided, and it could very well have been decided much earlier than when Sakurai recorded the announcement.

 

[Cadillac]

Yeah, don't see how a Spirit event takes months to make. That's a stretch. Especially when we don't know when the roster for the second pass was decided, and it could very well have been decided much earlier than when Sakurai recorded the announcement.

My guess is, that they decided some fighers before Banjo and completed the Fp2 some time after Terry.

 

[Cosmic77]

Yeah, don't see how a Spirit event takes months to make. That's a stretch. Especially when we don't know when the roster for the second pass was decided, and it could very well have been decided much earlier than when Sakurai recorded the announcement.

Wasn't necessarily saying Spirits events themselves take months to create. Just that it might not be as straightforward as them making a few Spirits one week before the planned Spirit event. It's possible that certain Spirits had been completed a long time ago and were put on the backburner until the planned date. Others may have not began development until after their game was released.

In the grand scheme of things, it's all just speculation. Maybe the SwSh Spirits were made in summer, maybe they were made in November. Maybe the pass was finalized before E3 2019, maybe it was finalized only a few days before Sakurai made that presentation in November. It's anyone's guess.

 

[NintenRob]

Oh boy, four ratings?


Melmetal Double 0
Stupid thing is a pain in the ass to get and you can't even evolve Meltan in Sword and shield. It would also make a terrible choice to promote Sword and Shield since its not even in those games without trading. And if it was used to Promote Go, which would be stupid, what would it's stage even be?

Obstagoon Double 0
An early route Final Evolution. It's also the signature Pokemon of the one Gym Leader who can't gmax. He's really nothing special about him. If they wanted a new Evolution, it would likely be Sirfetched. He was way more beloved from the moment of its reveal (shame it's sword exclusive)

Urshifu
Chance 1% Want 0%
The legendary Pokemon of the expansion pass. Problem is it will have two forms that are implied not to be interchangeable since they're set on Evolution, how do you choose which form to take? Also personally I think it's design looks pretty weak for a Legendary

Toxtricity
Chance 30% Want 50%
Finally, one worth rating. Toxtricity is definitely a Pokemon game freak intends to push in some form. That mysterious hillside picture is heavily implied to be Gmax toxtricity and you get it's pre evolution in an egg at one point in the game. And while it does have two forms, gameplay differences are minimal so they can easily work as alts. Helps that it's incredibly popular, scoring second for Galar.


Predictions
Standalone staged 9%
Echoes outside of pass 13%

Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Wasn't necessarily saying Spirits events themselves take months to create. Just that it might not be as straightforward as them making a few Spirits one week before the planned Spirit event. It's possible that certain Spirits had been completed a long time ago and were put on the backburner until the planned date. Others may have not began development until after their game was released.

In the grand scheme of things, it's all just speculation. Maybe the SwSh Spirits were made in summer, maybe they were made in November. Maybe the pass was finalized before E3 2019, maybe it was finalized only a few days before Sakurai made that presentation in November. It's anyone's guess.

But... Why would they finish a Spirit event and keep it in the backburner? I can get a few weeks, but not that long that they made the Spirits and then underwent the entire process of selecting the roster for FP2. It's not really efficient to be making things that far in advance.

Oh boy, four ratings?


Melmetal Double 0
Stupid thing is a pain in the ass to get and you can't even evolve Meltan in Sword and shield. It would also make a terrible choice to promote Sword and Shield since its not even in those games without trading. And if it was used to Promote Go, which would be stupid, what would it's stage even be?

Obstagoon Double 0
An early route Final Evolution. It's also the signature Pokemon of the one Gym Leader who can't gmax. He's really nothing special about him. If they wanted a new Evolution, it would likely be Sirfetched. He was way more beloved from the moment of its reveal (shame it's sword exclusive)

Urshifu
Chance 1% Want 0%
The legendary Pokemon of the expansion pass. Problem is it will have two forms that are implied not to be interchangeable since they're set on Evolution, how do you choose which form to take? Also personally I think it's design looks pretty weak for a Legendary

Toxtricity
Chance 30% Want 50%
Finally, one worth rating. Toxtricity is definitely a Pokemon game freak intends to push in some form. That mysterious hillside picture is heavily implied to be Gmax toxtricity and you get it's pre evolution in an egg at one point in the game. And while it does have two forms, gameplay differences are minimal so they can easily work as alts. Helps that it's incredibly popular, scoring second for Galar.


Predictions
Standalone staged 9%
Echoes outside of pass 13%

Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5

TIL Urshifu is a legendary.

 

[Calamitas]

Okay, four ratings today. . . oof. Well then. Not gonna bother with joke-y names for them, since I can' t really think of any for all four.

Obstagoon

Chance: 0%
It's the final evolution of an early game common Pokémon, with the only standout features that it has going for it being the fact that it's a regional variant, and that it's a new evolution for an old Pokémon, which aren't really big points in its favour. Obstagoon hasn't been specifically marketed since its reveal, and other than the fact that it's Piers' strongest Pokémon, there's nothing special about it in the game, either. It just isn't happening.

Want: 0%
Gonna be honest here, I greatly prefer the non-Galar look of the Zigzagoon line, to the point where I'd actually classify it as my favourite "Rattata clone". I don't hate or even dislike Obstagoon, but I really don't want it in Smash, especially since it is way too humanoid and wouldn't really lend itself to a kind of moveset that only a Pokémon could provide. That's also an issue I have with Incineroar, mind you.

Melmetal

Chance: 0%
Even if we act under the assumption that there's gonna be a promotional Sword/Shield Pokémon for Smash, I severely doubt that it would, or even could be Melmetal. The line was introduced in Pokémon GO, made their first mainline debut in the Let's Go games (which are main series games, as far as Gamefreak is concerned), and isn't even in Sword/Shield without transfering. Also not helping is that is a mythical Pokémon, which I generally don't consider strong contender for Smash fighters.

Want: 0%
I never played Pokémon GO and skipped the Let's Go games, despite being a Pokémon fan since the first generation. I have absolutely no interest in this Pokémon. And as far as mythical Pokémon go, there are several better candidates if you ask me, such as Mew, Deoxys, Darkrai or Victini.

Toxtricity

Chance: 10%
Well, I could see it having some chance. Sure, we did get the Sword/Shield spirit event, but that's the thing with Pokémon: There's so many that it would be ridicilously easy to pick enough from Generation 8 to fill out a dedicated Spirit board for DLC. As for Toxtricity itself, it has proven itself to be quite popular, has some more noteworthy importance in-game, and even has a Gigantimax form. But while these are points in its favour, I don't think that it is anywhere near enough to make it an ultra likely pick for Smash.

Want: 15%
I like it. Used it on my team for a bit during my playthrough of Sword. Having a poison-type Pokémon playable in Smash could be interesting, especially since it has a lot of sound-based abilities. On the grand list of characters I want to see in Smash, Toxtricity still ranks very, very low, though.

Urshifu

Chance: 12%
A good deal of my reasoning for Toxtricity also applies here. Urshifu in particular has the slight advantage of being an upcoming Pokémon, meaning that it has more of a promotional pull to it. . . but on the other hand, it is a legendary Pokémon, which I consider slight disadvantage. Personally, I doubt that Nintendo will want to advertise the DLC for another game with Smash DLC, though.

Want: Abstain.
Neither of the Sword and Shield expansion passes have been released yet, so I don't really have an opinion Urshifu.

Nominating Any Octopath Traveler rep x5

Predicting:
Standalone Stage 3.5%
Echo Fighters 7.92%

 

[GoodGrief741]

I'm sorry that I just counted noms but I had a busy weekend. Now for reasons that everyone is aware of I have free time to do all this stuff on time.

I should mention that very few of you actually have enough reasoning to have your noms counted. It's to be expected, with 3 characters. Still, remember that it's 2 per score - so 4 per character, if you're giving both chance and want scores. You can still edit your posts for today, so make sure you have enough sentences (for reference, today we have 4 characters being rated, so you should have 16 sentences total).

Spoiler: Nominations post-Rillaboom/Cinderace/Intelleon pre-Obstagoon/Toxtricity/Melmetal/Urshifu

Freddy Fazbear x280
Kazuma Kiryu x230
The Blob (De Blob) x200
Crypto x195
Carmen Sandiego x185
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x175
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x170

150 - 101

Reporter & Wrestler x130
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Gex x110

100 - 51

Mii Costume: Quote x100
Big Daddy (BioShock) x85
Chun-Li x85
[Rerate] Paper Mario x85
Ryo Hazuki x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x75
Bubsy x75
Decidueye x72
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x70
Meowth x69
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Segata Sanshiro x65

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Earthworm Jim x50
Concept: Darksiders rep x50
Falinks x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Gnar (League of Legends) x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x31
Concept: DLC music packs x30
Terra Branford x28
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
[Rerate] Kratos x25
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x25

Under 25

Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x23
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x19
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Zeraora x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Concept: Level-5 rep x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Alucard (Castlevania) x10
Ahri (League of Legends) x10
Black Shadow x8
Concept: Returning stages x7
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Sirfetch'd x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Otto Matic x5
Concept: New Zelda character x5
King Graham x5
Chell x3
Magolor x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
3 Mage Sisters x2

Concept: Octopath Traveler rep won its duel against Travis Touchdown, taking sixth place from him.

Today's sole newcomer is King Graham, with 5 noms to his name.

 

[Cadillac]

I'm sorry that I just counted noms but I had a busy weekend. Now for reasons that everyone is aware of I have free time to do all this stuff on time.

I should mention that very few of you actually have enough reasoning to have your noms counted. It's to be expected, with 3 characters. Still, remember that it's 2 per score - so 4 per character, if you're giving both chance and want scores. You can still edit your posts for today, so make sure you have enough sentences (for reference, today we have 4 characters being rated, so you should have 16 sentences total).

Spoiler: Nominations post-Rillaboom/Cinderace/Intelleon pre-Obstagoon/Toxtricity/Melmetal/Urshifu

Freddy Fazbear x280
Kazuma Kiryu x230
The Blob (De Blob) x200
Crypto x195
Carmen Sandiego x185
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x175
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x170

150 - 101

Reporter & Wrestler x130
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Gex x110

100 - 51

Mii Costume: Quote x100
Big Daddy (BioShock) x85
Chun-Li x85
[Rerate] Paper Mario x85
Ryo Hazuki x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x75
Bubsy x75
Decidueye x72
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x70
Meowth x69
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Segata Sanshiro x65

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Earthworm Jim x50
Concept: Darksiders rep x50
Falinks x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Gnar (League of Legends) x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x31
Concept: DLC music packs x30
Terra Branford x28
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
[Rerate] Kratos x25
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x25

Under 25

Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x23
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x19
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Zeraora x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Concept: Level-5 rep x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Alucard (Castlevania) x10
Ahri (League of Legends) x10
Black Shadow x8
Concept: Returning stages x7
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Sirfetch'd x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Otto Matic x5
Concept: New Zelda character x5
Chell x3
Magolor x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
3 Mage Sisters x2

Concept: Octopath Traveler rep won its duel against Travis Touchdown, taking sixth place from him.

If I rated all of them at once, how many sentences do I need to write?

 

[GoodGrief741]

If I rated all of them at once, how many sentences do I need to write?

16

 

[Sid-cada]

Obstagoon

Chance - 0% - Outside of being the first revealed of the Regional Evolutions, Obstagoon has very little to go for him. He's not especially popular or anything, and thus I think is little more than a random Pokemon.

Want - 35% - Not particularly striking for me, I find this pokemon okay but not exactly interesting. There are Pokemon I would much rather see than him.


Melmetal

Chance - 0.05% - Melmetal's a weird one, due to technically being part of an "in between" generation. It's a bit more noticeable compared to some, but I think unless there are much bigger plans for it or Sakurai really takes a shine to it, I don't think this is likely, as it hasn't really taken off like some others.

Want - 35% - It's similar to how I feel about Obstagoon, to be honest. Not quite cool enough for me to be interested.


Toxtricity

Chance - 1.5% - While there are some things going for them, I think they are going to be like Lycanroc last game: somewhat promoted, but not enough to get real serious considerations. Another Pokemon that might sneak in if Sakurai really like him, otherwise he feel out prioritized by other Pokemon.

Want - 40% - While a bit cooler, there are other Pokemon that I think are better. Overall, though, I'm satisfied with where Pokemon is at, and don't see the need to add a new pokemon just because of the new generation.

Urshifu

Chance - 0.5% - While he makes perfect sense, I'm not certain his timing was right for being considered. If he was, I'd probably rate him around 4-10%, but as of now I don't think he was completed in time to be even up for grabs.

Want - 35% - Largely yet another pokemon I'm not overly interested in. Can we at least step away from the humanoids a bit?


Nominations

De Blob X5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Elma
6.48% Chance - 51.18% Want
Last time we rated her she got 20.41% chance and 48.84% want. This happened after Joker's reveal; back then Rex's costume was seen by many as a killing blow while the lack of Xenoblade X content was seen as positive. Now that many see Rex as back in play her chances took a dive (most of the ratings said she has no shot over him).
Winner of predictions was warpenguin55 with a precise 7.00%

Rex
17.52% Chance - 50.95% Want
Last time we rated him he got 5.95% chance and 38.08% want. As mentioned, at that point the question of whether his Mii Costume disconfirmed him had much more of a negative reply (and also, for some reason, many people gave him low scores because they understood his rating as being sans Pyra). Now, while still controversial, his Mii Costume is seen by more as not mattering within the context of a second pass.
Winner of predictions was Icedragonadam with 17.77%
Rex is still a very controversial character, with very high and low want scores. Still, I must admit I'm surprised to see Elma scoring higher than him.

Skull Kid
5.46% Chance - 61.30% Want
Last time we rated him he got 6.01% chance and 63.33% want. Very similar scores; it appears that while wanted and accepted, he simply isn't seen as a likely AT promotion.
Winner of predictions was Sari with 5.83%

Midna
4.33% Chance - 57.17% Want
Last time we rated her she got 2.71% chance and 44.15% want. She slightly rose in chance and noticeably in want - to be honest I can't think of any explanations. But good for her.
Winner of predictions was Sari with 4.02%

Rillaboom
16.11% Chance - 27.47% Want
Winner of predictions was Ridrool64 with 16.29%

Cinderace
26.63% Chance - 27.71% Want
Winner of predictions was Louie G. with 27.50%
Cinderace takes the spot of the likeliest first party character, beating Bandana Dee's 21.70%

Intelleon
12.41% Chance - 27.00% Want
Winner of predictions was NintenRob with a precise 12.00%

I want to mention that while predictions for the starters were very much in favor of Rillaboom, Cinderace ended taking the win, and while Intelleon did end being last, he did so in the high end of predictions and by a much smaller difference from the other two than predicted.

The ladies and gents with extra noms are:

Artix 15
Awakining 5
Cadillac 5
DanganZilla5 15
DaUsername 57
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 38
Icedragonadam 10
Louie G. 5
NintenRob 105
Nemuresu 10
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 5
Sari 10
Ramen Tengoku 5
Troykv 15
warpenguin55 5
Wunderwaft 10

Also you might have noticed that I edited the noms list after the fact. When I was calculating scores I noticed that I'd missed those 5 noms, so I fixed my mistake.

 

[Cadillac]

Spoiler: Calcs

Elma
6.48% Chance - 51.18% Want
Last time we rated her she got 20.41% chance and 48.84% want. This happened after Joker's reveal; back then Rex's costume was seen by many as a killing blow while the lack of Xenoblade X content was seen as positive. Now that many see Rex as back in play her chances took a dive (most of the ratings said she has no shot over him).
Winner of predictions was warpenguin55 with a precise 7.00%

Rex
17.52% Chance - 50.95% Want
Last time we rated him he got 5.95% chance and 38.08% want. As mentioned, at that point the question of whether his Mii Costume disconfirmed him had much more of a negative reply (and also, for some reason, many people gave him low scores because they understood his rating as being sans Pyra). Now, while still controversial, his Mii Costume is seen by more as not mattering within the context of a second pass.
Winner of predictions was Icedragonadam with 17.77%
Rex is still a very controversial character, with very high and low want scores. Still, I must admit I'm surprised to see Elma scoring higher than him.

Skull Kid
5.46% Chance - 61.30% Want
Last time we rated him he got 6.01% chance and 63.33% want. Very similar scores; it appears that while wanted and accepted, he simply isn't seen as a likely AT promotion.
Winner of predictions was Sari with 5.83%

Midna
4.33% Chance - 57.17% Want
Last time we rated her she got 2.71% chance and 44.15% want. She slightly rose in chance and noticeably in want - to be honest I can't think of any explanations. But good for her.
Winner of predictions was Sari with 4.02%

Rillaboom
16.11% Chance - 27.47% Want
Winner of predictions was Ridrool64 with 16.29%

Cinderace
26.63% Chance - 27.71% Want
Winner of predictions was Louie G. with 27.50%
Cinderace takes the spot of the likeliest first party character, beating Bandana Dee's 21.70%

Intelleon
12.41% Chance - 27.00% Want
Winner of predictions was NintenRob with a precise 12.00%

I want to mention that while predictions for the starters were very much in favor of Rillaboom, Cinderace ended taking the win, and while Intelleon did end being last, he did so in the high end of predictions and by a much smaller difference from the other two than predicted.

The ladies and gents with extra noms are:

Artix 15
Awakining 5
Cadillac 5
DanganZilla5 15
DaUsername 57
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 38
Icedragonadam 10
Louie G. 5
NintenRob 105
Nemuresu 10
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 5
Sari 10
Ramen Tengoku 5
Troykv 15
warpenguin55 5
Wunderwaft 10

Also you might have noticed that I edited the noms list after the fact. When I was calculating scores I noticed that I'd missed those 5 noms, so I fixed my mistake.

So next time I can nom ten times?

 

[GoodGrief741]

So next time I can nom ten times?

Next time, or whenever you choose to use them.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Concept: Standalone stage as DLC and Concept: Echo fighters as dlc (echo pass, not part of fighters pass season 2).

Predict Shantae, Bomberman, and Shovel Knight.

Megadoomer

No music post today since I can't really do music for these concepts.

 

[Perkilator]

POKÉ FLOATS HD BABY
Chance: 0%
Right now, it’s looking like all future stages are going to relate to each newcomer in the next Fighter’s Pass. Based on that, standalone stages feels like a not-happening sort of things.

Want(ed): 100%
Which is a shame, because I thought for sure that sixth empty stage slot would mean a standalone stage. It just seemed to conspicuous to not be filled, but I’m glad it is being filled either way.

Smash Bros. Echoes: Shadows of the Fighter’s Pass
Chance: 0%
No way they’d charge you money just to download glorified skins. I’d sooner pay $3 for alternate costumes for every other character (by which I mean $3 for ALL the costumes).

Want: 50%
Besides, they can just add them for free in updates. I know I’d consider doing that if I were in charge of Smash, seeing as it’s just altering an existing character’s data.

Shantae: 50%
Bomberman and Shovel Knight: 10%

Noms: Sirfetch’d x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Double Abstain. I'm a bit burnt out after the 7 Pokemon.

Predict:
Shantae 23%
Bomberman 4%
Shovel Knight 3%

Noms: Gnar x10

 

[Cadillac]

Double abstain. I don't really have anything to say about these two topics.

Shantae: 30%
Bomberman: 10%
Shovel Knight: 12%

Noms: Hornet(Hollow Knight) x10

 

[DanganZilla5]

Poke Floats, Rainbow Road and Pac Maze here we come! Let's go!

Chance: 10%

The only reason why I'm not giving this a lower score is because individual stages was a thing during Smash 4's DLC. However, Smash 4's DLC was more spread out and not as interconnected like Smash ultimate with the fighters pass. There is no indication that we will get more DLC outside of Fighters Pass 2. People have speculated DLC for bonus stages and fighters for a while but the thing is that we haven't had a precedence during Ultimate's lifetime for DLC for anything other than fighters passes and Mii costumes. The only exception is Plant and that is because he was meant to be in the base roster.

I really do believe that Fighters Pass 2 is the end and they will be focusing on that entirely.

Want: 100%

I would love Poke Floats, Rainbow Road 3DS and Pac Maze to return and that will seemingly only happen if they come as separate DLC. As impressive and expansive as Ultimate's stage roster is, those three stages in particular are clear omissions and there is no good reason why those stages were cut. If included, they would make Ultimate's stage roster feel truly Ultimate.


Echo Fighters DLC

Chance: 5%

Most of my reasoning with the DLC stages also applies here. In addition, not a lot of people seem interested in paying for echo fighters on their own and plenty of speculated echo fighters like Dixie Kong and Shadow could easily work as their own unique fighters too. People were willing to pay for Roy and Lucas, but the difference is that they are only half echos and they are veterans. Overall, I'm not seeing this happening. Echo fighters were made to make up for the lack of many unique newcomers and they were favorable because of the limited time of the base game development and the fact that they came with the base roster in addition to everyone else. With DLC, it's a completely different ball game and with Fighters Pass 2 looking to be the only DLC fighters left, I strongly believe echo fighters are done for.

Want: 11%

If this is the only way that Shadow can be playable, then sure. Otherwise I'm not a fan of any of the majorly speculated echo fighters like Dixie Kong or Black Shadow. I think Dry Bowser and Funky Kong would be cool but other than them and Shadow I have no interest in echo fighters at all and even then I would prefer if Shadow was unique. Personally I don't want to pay for echo fighters, especially if they are barely different like Daisy and Richter are. To be fair, I would probably get them still because I love this game and it would increase the roster size, but I would not be hyped for them and I would rather the team focus entirely on making unique fighters.

Predictions:
Shantae - 25% (I'm expecting this to be a repeat of Isaac's day with a lot of her fans flooding in to support her)
Bomberman - 5%
Shovel Knight - 8%

Noms: Crypto x5

 

[Sari]

Standalone stage

Chance: 1%
Don't see it happening. They've already got the stages for the challenger packs planned out so I doubt they'll want to go out of their way to make more. If they were planning on doing some promotional stage they'd probably just release it along with one of the six fighters.

Want: 50%
More stages would be nice and they could even add some old stages that were absent like PokeFloats and Mute City from Melee. I'd still prefer if they primarily focused on characters though plus I mainly play on battlefield/omega variants of stage anyway.

-----

Echo Pass

Chance: 1%
Again I don't see Sakurai going out of his way to make additional content outside of the challenger packs and Mii Costumes. At best I can see an echo fighter releasing alongside one corresponding challenger pack, but I can't imagine a full-on echo pass happening.

Want: 100%
More characters is always good even if it's in the form of just clones. I feel that the idea of echo fighters was wasted since we didn't get that many in the end. Additional echos would easily fix that.

-----

Chance predictions

Shantae: 25.30% (Oh boy it's that time of year again. Expecting a ton of overrates especially since tomorrow's indie direct will probably feature Seven Sirens)
Bomberman: 5.00%
Shovel Knight: 6.00%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x15

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Standalone Stage

Chance: 5% - It could very well happen, especially because "fan rule bad", but at the moment there is no precedent for it. Unlike Smash 4 which had a more spread and varied DLC distribution, Ultimate follows a very rigid structure in the pass format and thus we'll likely only see stages for newcomers. We once thought that we may get older stages as DLC when Sakurai showed an Ultimate screenshot with Smash 4 Battlefield, but he later revealed that it was just an old screenshot from an early build of the game. Thus I believe it's a possibility, but highly unlikely at this point in time.

Want: 50% - I'm pretty fine either way whether we get them or not. There are some returning stages I'd love to see like Poke Floats and Pac Maze. Alongside that if a series doesn't get a character there are some I'd love to see represented as stages. Minecraft would make a fantastic choice if we end up not getting Steve, and a Sid Meier's Civilization stage would be a good way to represent that series (since all of the character choices are historical leaders). But if we didn't get them I wouldn't mind, we already have a fantastic stage selection as it is!


Echo Fighters

Chance: 10% - Again, it's a possibility, but given the DLC structure it is highly unlikely. We could recieve one as a bonus post-pass but as of right now the rigid structure of the pass isn't going to present an opportunity for them. Nobody's gonna pay extra money for a duplicate character unless we get a cheaper echo pass either. So again it's possible but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Want: 50% - Again, I wouldn't mind either way, though there are a few echoes that do spring to mind for me. The biggest one would be Louie from Pikmin as an echo for Olimar. He plays identically in the games, though they can always give him some variation by implementing a Pikmin 2-related mechanic to him such as the sprays!


Nominations:
Bubsy x5

Predictions:
Shantae - 29,35%
Shovel Knight - 4.55%
Bomberman - 2.14%

 

[GoodGrief741]

The reign of Pokemon has ended!

Clones!... Clones... clones... lones...

Chance: 1%
I do think that Sakurai's statement that they're not thinking about more DLC is pretty final. That's not a "we're keeping our options open" statement, it's a "tempering expectations" statement. Due to the ease of developing Echoes I could see one sneaking in if the corporate overlords demand it, so that's why it's not 0%. But potential Echoes for any of the final 6 will just be made into alts.

Want: 100%
Which is a shame, because tons of the characters I want could work as Echoes. Ninten, Black Shadow, regular Shadow, Octoling, Tom Nook, Alph, and if push comes to shove, Dixie Kong. Most of the Echoes are some of my favorite additions in Ultimate, as they give a chance to fighters that Sakurai can't make gimmicky or flashy in this day where that's what's expected. And, I gotta admit, it does make me more lenient when an unorthodox character makes it in as an Echo.

More stages pls

Chance: 5%
I think it's a bit more open with this one. Fighters are fighters, everything else is probably decided after. So I can see them not having plans for any more fighters, but adding stages - perhaps in a more Splatoon/ARMS-esque way of keeping the game alive.

Want: 100%
Again, the more the better. Whether it's returning stages (I don't care I want Rainbow Road back), new ones from new franchises (I think some are better represented by stages than characters), or just a good old promotion (maybe a BotW2 map?), I'll gladly buy them if the price is right.

Noms: Kiryu x5
Ah **** we're rating Shantae tomorrow
Shantae prediction: 38.93%
Bomberman prediction: 17.44%
Shovel Knight prediction: 15.20%

 

[Ridrool64]

And the return of the totals board of Fighter's Pass Volume 2 Speculation!

Chance Key: Green = Frontrunner (50+%), Blue = Solid Shot (35+%), White is Possible (20+%), Orange is Feasible (10%) and Red is below that, Pipe Dream.

By chance:

Spoiler: Chance Totals

1. Ryu Hayabusa: 59.48% Chance
2. Crash Bandicoot: 59.26% Chance
3. Lloyd Irving: 50.29% Chance
4. Dante: 49.38% Chance
5. Phoenix Wright: 43.94% Chance
6. Geno: 42.50% Chance
7. Sora: 40.58% Chance
8. Arle Nadja: 39.29% Chance
9. Heihachi Mishima: 37.58% Chance
10. 2B: 35.41% Chance
11. Sol Badguy: 31.00% Chance
12. Lara Croft: 29.50% Chance
13. Cinderace: 26.63% Chance
14. Reimu Hakurei: 24.98% Chance
15. Bandana Dee: 21.70% Chance
16. Isaac: 20.45% Chance
17. Waluigi: 19.81% Chance
18. Dovahkiin: 19.69% Chance
19. Nightmare: 18.74% Chance
20. Master Chief: 18.27% Chance
21. Dixie Kong: 18.08% Chance
22. Rex: 17.52% Chance
23. Tracer: 17.37% Chance
24. Rillaboom: 16.11% Chance
25. Ragna the Bloodedge: 14.25% Chance
26. Inteleon: 12.41% Chance
27. Rayman: 11.53% Chance
28. Spyro the Dragon: 9.58% Chance
29. KOS-MOS: 8.87% Chance
30. Elma: 6.48% Chance
31. Neku Sakuraba: 6.46% Chance
32. Skull Kid: 5.46% Chance
33. The Knight: 4.62% Chance
34. Midna: 4.33% Chance
35. Thrall: 3.07% Chance
36. Doomguy: 2.86% Chance
37. Vault Boy: 1.82% Chance
38. Hat Kid: 0.85% Chance

Want key: Pink = Community Stars (#FF69B4) [65+%], Brown = Fan Favorites [#8B4513] (60+%), Yellow = Popular (40+%), Purple is Average (25+%), Black is Unpopular (below 25%).

By want:

Spoiler: Want Totals

1. Crash Bandicoot: 75.78% Want
2. Bandana Dee: 74.41% Want
3. Phoenix Wright: 70.91% Want
4. Dixie Kong: 70.52% Want
5. Lara Croft: 69.06% Want
6. Isaac: 67.22% Want
7. Ryu Hayabusa: 64.32% Want
8. Dante: 64.23% Want
9. 2B: 64.09% Want
10. Geno: 62.93% Want
11. Skull Kid: 61.30% Want
12. Master Chief: 60.94% Want
13. Waluigi: 60.75% Want
14. Arle Nadja: 60.50% Want
15. Reimu Hakurei: 60.05% Want
16. Nightmare: 57.27% Want
17. Midna: 57.17% Want
18. Sora: 54.44% Want
19. Neku Sakuraba: 53.89% Want
20. Heihachi: 53.60% Want
21. Rayman: 52.35% Want
22. Spyro the Dragon: 52.04% Want
23. Elma & Sol Badguy: 51.18% Want (our first tie!)
24. Rex: 50.95% Want
25. The Knight: 50.12% Want
26. Lloyd Irving: 47.85% Want
27. Dovahkiin: 47.40% Want
28. Doomguy: 44.15% Want
29. Ragna the Bloodedge: 37.19% Want
30. KOS-MOS: 35.24% Want
31. Cinderace: 27.71% Want
32. Rillaboom: 27.47% Want
33. Inteleon: 27.00% Want
34. Thrall: 26.50% Want
35. Hat Kid: 23.69% Want
36. Tracer: 22.73% Want
37. Vault Boy: 20.40% Want

And now for a new section: the Deceased. This list is updated based on if any potential ratings for them were cancelled, be they nominations or on the schedule but whacked before then.

The criteria are

• Spirit Event: Given it features the character itself, then they can be considered out of the running completely. Meanwhile, while not being in it yourself means you can be rated, as we've seen with the Gen 8 starters and randos, that will mean you get very low scores.
• DLC Mii Costume: People are all but in unanimous agreement that if you end up here, you're done. Frisk and Ezio are in what I will call limbo where I'd wait and see what the mods think, but we have Mii Costumes from their series, and Frisk's comes with a song so I'm very curious to see if they are eligible for nominations or considered disconfirmed by proxy.
• That's about it. I'd add more to the list but we rated Doom Guy despite him being disconfirmed in an interview, and he didn't even get the lowest chance rating. Vergeben hasn't ever said that a particular character was not coming at all, but if he had that information and shared it with us I'd consider adding it to the list.

Ignoring disconfirmations prior to Byleth (basically, starting from Yu Narukami and going up to Cuphead), only Ring Fit Adventurer currently resides here. Unless the Kunio event was after Byleth's reveal, in which case they have a friend. Cuphead was pre-disconfirmed so he doesn't count, and Warframe was never in speculation to begin with.

Elma and Sol Badguy have identical want scores, so if we were to get either one of them, it'd be funny if we got the other too. Cinderace is close, but Lloyd still holds a monopoly on chance > want.

Gonna do today's ratings later.

 

[Jomosensual]

Standalone Stages

Chance 10 - Maybe? I guess I dont really see a reason to. Unless they want to throw us a Pokefloats stage, which would be cool. Gonna leave my final answer at something close to nah, not going to happen because I think it's more likely we get nothing extra with the 6 more challenger packs we already are confirmed to get and that will round out our Smash content

Want 50 - Sure why not. Can't hurt I guess. There's really not much Im dying to see right now but hey, if they want to toss me another stage that's fine by me. Just make it not suck and I'm good.

Echo Pass
Chance 0 - Sakurai said this would likely be the last pass, and I believe him completely on this. I dont think we're getting anything after this unless we get a surprise 7th fighter at the end of the pass. That's not likely either, but it's more likely than an echo. Now could someone come with an echo? Sure, I'd consider that possibilty. But we're not getting a pass of echos only


Want 50 - I'd be fine with it, but there's also not really any echo's id be all that pumped for anymore. Would rather see all that dev time go to 1-2 more characters who are hype as hell to end things personally.

Predictions
Shantae - 45%(this is going to be dumb)
Bomberman - 4%
Shovel Knight - 9%

Noms
Falinks x5

 

[CHAMPIONX9]

New pass? Stages? Aint gonna happen. Corona virus gonna reduce work hours.
/end topic

Next.

 

[chocolatejr9]

New pass? Stages? Aint gonna happen. Corona virus gonna reduce work hours.
/end topic

Next.

I... don't think that's how it works.

 

[CHAMPIONX9]

I... don't think that's how it works.

I know. I know you know. And i know you know that I know.

Next. Post.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Standalone Stages

Chance: 20%
Sure, it could happen. In Smash 4 we got a bunch so it's not unprecedented. I will say it's more unlikely this time however, due to stages already being bundled with every fighter.

Want: 70%
Sure, why not? The more the merrier, but not really dying to see any in particular right now. We do have a much smaller amount of new stages in Ultimate, so those would be nice, or if they want to bring back the few that were missing from old games like Poke Floats or Pac-Maze, both would be fine (although stages like Rumble Falls can stay dead).

Echo Pass

Chance: 20%
Again, unlikely but not impossible. Echoes are more likely than whole fighters outside of the 6 they announced, but we'll just have to wait and see if they're willing to go that extra mile.

Want: 100%
OK, this score largely depends on which echoes they actually would choose. If they choose characters like Impa, Octolings, Black Shadow, and (if she can't get in any other way), Dixie Kong, and others then I'm wholly for it.

Noms: Chun-Li x5

 

[Sari]

New pass? Stages? Aint gonna happen. Corona virus gonna reduce work hours.
/end topic

Next.

I know. I know you know. And i know you know that I know.

Next. Post.

I don't recall anyone giving you authority to decide when days should end, let alone one that hasn't even been out for 6 hours. We don't know what Nintendo's actual plans are and with Ultimate's DLC lasting at least until the end of 2021, anything can happen.

So no, we aren't ending the day yet. Continue with the rating everyone.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Standalone Stage(s):

Chance: 5% - I don't see a big reason why this would happen, maybe if they have a little bit of spare development time they could use it to bring back another old stage, but them having spare development time sounds incredibly unlikely. Another option is to bring in a stage with a deluxe Mii Costume, but you'd kinda think that Cuphead would have been the perfect opportunity for that, if only for the artstyle, and at that point it goes beyond what those deluxe Mii Costume have been so far, which are just quick additions that still manage to give some extended representation to chosen games/franchises. Any reason I can think of just seems very convoluted and unlikely.

Want: 80% - Any additional content would really just be a bonus, I'm not expecting anything else than what they've laid out for us with the 2nd Pass, so since I've got nothing to lose with this one I have no reason to not give it a high score. It wouldn't necessarily be the most exciting thing in the world, but I'd take it.

Echo Fighters Pass:

Chance: 0% - Not only does it seem pretty clear that the 2nd Pass will be the last content we'll get in this game, but even if we were to get more, I highly doubt it'd be in the form of Echoes. It just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to add these kind of characters post-launch, because they're only ever included to begin with to squeeze as much as they can out of the initial development process. With the DLC there's a much clearer plan though, when it's done then that's it, there is no other reason for them to keep on working other than the deadline this time being very loose. That's just talking about a single bonus echo as well, an entire Pass is completely out of the question imo as that just goes completely against how these characters have otherwise come to be.

Want: 100% - Pretty much for the same reason as above, there is no scenario where I wouldn't love to get more characters, regardless of whether they're unique or not. There aren't really any particular Echoes that I want, but that wouldn't really matter much to me at that point, I'd just be appreciative of getting more characters in the first place.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Obstagoon/Toxtricity/Melmetal/Urshifu pre-Concept: Standalone stage as DLC/Concept: Echo Fighters as DLC

Freddy Fazbear x290
Kazuma Kiryu x235
The Blob (De Blob) x200
Crypto x200
Carmen Sandiego x185
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x180
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x170

150 - 101

Reporter & Wrestler x130
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Gex x110
Mii Costume: Quote x105

100 - 51

Big Daddy (BioShock) x85
Chun-Li x85
[Rerate] Paper Mario x85
Ryo Hazuki x80
Bubsy x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x75
Decidueye x75
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x70
Meowth x69
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Segata Sanshiro x65
Falinks x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Earthworm Jim x50
Concept: Darksiders rep x50
Gnar (League of Legends) x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x31
Concept: DLC music packs x30
Terra Branford x28
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
[Rerate] Kratos x25
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x25
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x25

Under 25

Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x19
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Zeraora x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Concept: Level-5 rep x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Alucard (Castlevania) x10
Ahri (League of Legends) x10
Black Shadow x8
Chell x8
Concept: Returning stages x7
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Sirfetch'd x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Otto Matic x5
Concept: New Zelda character x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
3 Mage Sisters x2

Crypto ties with The Blob for third place.

Mii Costume: Quote gathers over 100 noms.

Falinks crawls past 50 noms.

Echo: Dark Bowser escapes the under 25 club.

Your new concept is Fortnite character, with 5 noms.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I can't exactly give a confident answer to something like this.

Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5

 

[CHAMPIONX9]

I don't recall anyone giving you authority to decide when days should end, let alone one that hasn't even been out for 6 hours. We don't know what Nintendo's actual plans are and with Ultimate's DLC lasting at least until the end of 2021, anything can happen.

So no, we aren't ending the day yet. Continue with the rating everyone.

That's what I said on my second post. I know I don't have the authority, so I don't expect anybody to take me seriously. The quality of posts on smash boards is so low, that everyone took me seriously.
No one even call me out for trolling, it's that bad here I can't even satire a sterotypical internet comment.

I'm only doing this because I am bored of the website and wasted enough time here. I just decided to end it by ****posting. All the internet makes sense now. People troll, are mean, and are stupid on the internet because they are bored. What a waste of time. It does make me feel better about it. Like not taking anything too serious.

Anyway I am sorry for any inconvience and annoyance I may have caused. I wish you all good luck on preserving your health.

Last harah

stages.

I think a 20% chance, not because of corona but because Sakurai said we would not get any more characters. This implies that they are getting ready to wrap up and while a stage would be cool, all the characters are getting stages so with six more in the line up its hard to imagine a 7th stage just because.
I don't know if Sakurai feels a need to add a stand alone stage given that we do have a stage creator and that might put stages lower on the priority list.

The other side of the argument is that because its the end Sakurai is trying to squeeze every last drop of budget into the game, so we could end up with stand alone stages since that's less taxing than a character.

Echo fighter pass
2%

If we get echo fighters I dont think we'll get it packaged as a pass but stand alone characters. A pass worth fighters may as well be another character I guess? ????
So i think 2 more echo fighters is within expectations. But honestly, alt skins seems more interesting to me, as that seems to be able to incorporate characters and a new lookfor existing characters.

 

[amageish]

Well... Let's try.

Standalone Stages

Chance: 8%. I definitely like how the Fighter's Passes have served as Season Passes including everything, but I'm surprised this hasn't happened nonetheless. Selling standalone stages was such a cornerstone of Smash 4 DLC, after all. I could see it happening now, especially as they will have to change how the Stage Select looks visually regardless, but I'm not counting on it.

Want: 100%. More stages would be great! It'd be kind of nice to fill in the very few stages still missing from Ultimate and it'd be an easy way to promote upcoming games without giving them full characters. I also was kind of sad that a lot of the Wii U/Switch era didn't get stages in the base game, so it'd be nice for that be rectified now. Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE stage please!

Echo Fighters Pass

Chance: 0%. We're not getting further DLC passes, given Sakurai's comment. I would rate Echo Fighters ~5% if we were rating them as standalones, but I don't think they'd be sold as an "Echo Fighter Pass"...

Want: 100%. I don't get why people are against this idea. We already get cosmetic DLC for Mii Fighters. I don't see why getting fancy new cosmetics for the characters people actually use (no offense Mii mains) would be worse then that? They certainly would take development time, but I think it'd be time well spent for the most part.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Extra stages the competitive side will ban anyway
Chance: 2%
I think that if this was a thing it would've been confirmed by now. They would likely conserve development time and costs right now to make FP2 the most complete it can be. These last few remaining stages might be considered low priority at the moment.

Want: 75%
The more the merrier I suppose, tho I'm not really missing any stage besides 3ds Rainbow Road. It more or less depends on which stage we're talking about and the pricing.

A quarter of the work but half the price
Chance: 0%
Individual echoes? I could see it. A whole pass for them however isn't happening. A set of multiple clones doesn't sound as appealing as fully fleged characters buisness wise. I'd also imagine they wouldn't bother giving each new echo fighter a stage either, which is a big selling point of a pass.

Want: 95%
As long as they'd charge a fair amount and bring additinal content, I'd be down. There's quite a few potential echoes I'd appreciate. Of course I wouldn't complain seeing the general character count go up either.

Shantae: 13.43%
Shovel Knight: 4.89%
Bomberman: 3.11%
Alucard x5