Everyone's favorite genie
Chance: 16%
After thinking about it, Shantae is actually in a good spot. I'm confident that base game spirits don't deconfirm FP2 characters and Shantae is one of the few indie characters that has a realistic shot of getting in. She has legacy dating back to 2002, she is heavily requested, every game has been on a Nintendo console, and she has unique moveset potential with not just her hair whip, but her ability to transform into a variety of creatures which has a lot of potential. She does have competition from fellow indie characters Quote and Reimu, but the fact that Shantae got a spirit says something about the level of respect that the Smash team has toward Shantae. I think Quote has an edge over Shantae due to Cave Story's importance and origin in Japan, but Shantae is not too far behind. The only thing is that I'm still not too confident in us getting an indie rep. If we haven't gotten one at this point, I'm concerned we might not get even one by the end of this second pass. Still, if there was a time to get an indie character, it would probably be now as Sakurai wants to make this the biggest game he can make.
Want: 60%
I've only played a little bit of her games so I can't say I'm a fan. Still, her moveset potential with her transformations could be wicked cool and is something we don't see a lot in Smash. Shantae herself is cute and would bring a lot of personality to the table. I can imagine her teaming up with Isabelle which is heartwarming. Plus I would be happy for her fans and her inclusion would mean we finally got an indie character! We are really overdue for one of those.
Bombs away!
Chance: 15%
Konami has not been discussed a lot in speculation despite having some notable franchises like Bomberman, Contra and (I"m pretty sure) Frogger. Doing research, Bomberman has quite a legacy with him appearing over 70 games and him having dozens of his own games. He even has manga and anime. Wow, I think Bomberman might just be an underrated contender. He has plenty of Nintendo history, he is moderately popular, has relevancy, and unique moveset potential consisting of having to strategically place bombs. The only thing is that he is not very requested and I don't see him being one of the first couple assist trophies to be upgraded. Characters like Waluigi overshadow him when it comes to sheer popularity and requests. Not to mention competition from fellow Konami series/former NES icon series Contra.
Still, Konami is a company that could get a rep in the second fighters pass and judging from the Castlevania content, they don't seem to be a hassle to work with, contrary to what many people seem to think. I honestly think Bomberman is a solid contender and that we should discuss Konami more as they are a Japanese company with popular legacy franchises that have little to no representation in Ultimate.
Want: 70%
This is a bit high considering that I've never even played a Bomberman game. I've just been looking at them from a distance through videos and while I'm not too interested in them due to being multiplayer focused and me being a mostly single player person, they have a charm to them that I like. Bomberman has a cool and unique design and the thought of what he could bring excites me. Having a mostly bomb-centric moveset sounds interesting and I would like to see what that would look like. The stage potential is also awesome. You could have a stage with multiple elevations and gaps (similar to Wrecking Crew stage) where bombs are randomly placed and you have to get out of the way to avoid them. It would be a chaotic and very fun stage and that alone makes me want to give Bomberman a high want score. Bomberman has certainly deserved a potential spot with his legacy.
A knight that fights with a shovel?
Chance: 16%
You can tell I've warmed up to the idea of assist trophy upgrades. Indeed, this is another of the likeliest indie characters who could get in. Shovel Knight has been proven to be an indie icon. His game has done exceptionally well critically and financially and it spans over to all kinds of systems. Shovel Knight has remained relevant with a lot of DLC and spinoff games. Judging from some research, Shovel Knight is well known in Japan and the fact that he, an indie character, got an assist trophy says a lot. Yes, being an assist trophy does really hurt a characters chances and again, Quote will probably be the indie rep if we ever get one, but assist trophies are not a death sentence. Same thing with Bomberman. If Sakurai wants to make a character playable, he will.
It's really hard to tell if and what assist trophies could get upgraded. We could easily get zero or just one promotion. It's hard to know for sure since we don't know any characters from the second fighters pass yet. However, Shovel Knight is popular and requested, and if Nintendo listened, we might just get some assist trophy upgrades.
Want: 68%
I've had Shovel Knight Treasure Trove on my Switch for months now and haven't played it yet. What am I doing. Anyway, despite not playing the game I have a level of respect for the game and I think Shovel Knight is very cool, design and moveset wise. They did do a great job on the model for his assist trophy. Here's to hope that he gets upgraded as I'm curious to see how his moveset would work and I'm hoping that we finally get an indie character. Same for assist trophy upgrades, I'm hoping we get one of those because that would be mind blowing and open the door for a wide range of characters.
Predictions:
Amaterasu - 25%
Monster Hunter - 17%
Noms: Crypto x5