Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[warpenguin55]

Temp deleting my post while I edit my Ammy rating.

 

[DanganZilla5]

When it comes to Amaterasu my thoughts have not changed since the last time we rated her so I'll just quote myself. With Resident Evil seemingly deconfirmed due to the spirit event, her chances are looking better so ignore any mention of Resident Evil in my post. Still, Phoenix Wright and Dante are big hurdles for her.

The most stylish Doggo

Chance: 38%

This is an interesting character to discuss. Let's break it down.
Points toward her inclusion:

• Okami is on Wii and Switch and Okamiden was a DS exclusive.
• Amaterasu and her series have gained a cult following and has been moderately requested to be in Smash.
• A very distinct and appealing art style, combined with unique moveset potential, would make her stand out from all the other characters.
• A new game has been teased (but not confirmed).
• Plenty of spirit, music, and stage picks.
• Capcom rep, a company who is very open to having their content in the game.

Points against her inclusion:

• Stiff competition from Resident Evil, Phoenix Wright, Dante, and Monster Hunter, with some of these being gaming juggernauts, and Amaterasu is not as requested as some of them.
• Okami is more of a niche character compared to other Capcom characters, not obscure by any means, but gets overshadowed by the company's juggernauts.
• Not very relevant compared to, again, Capcom's other franchises. Relevancy is kind of a weak argument at this point thanks to Banjo, but it does still hurt a character's chances. There has not been a brand new Okami game in almost a decade and we still aren't sure a new game is coming out anytime soon. Although Okami has been kept alive by remasters and ports which helps and the game does deserve it.

With all this in mind, I think Amaterasu has a decent shot and she has enough merit to be a part of the biggest crossover of all time. However, her stiff competition from equally, if not, more important and iconic franchises like Resident Evil in particular, hurts her chances quite a bit. It's difficult to give her an exact score between so many arguments for and against her, and we have been blindsided before with Joker and Terry, and I believe she might be another character used to surprise us as well, but I'm confident in my rating. She is likely, but on the lower end of likely.

Want: 70%

I have a confession: I've never played Okami. I swear I will play it one day, I just have a big backlog of games. Anyway, I have seen gameplay footage of Okami and omg, the game is instantly interesting with its art style and combat system. It does definitely seem like a fun game and a great experience. Not to mention, every person I know who has played Okami or Okamiden, enjoyed the game and people speak so passionately about the game and Amaterasu herself. She does seem like a very good choice for DLC and her inclusion in the game would get people more interested in Okami, which it definitely deserves. Just typing this makes me want to get the game. You know what, the game is only $20. I may get it soon.

*Insert any pop culture reference to a group of people who hunt monsters*

Chance: 10%

I do have some confidence in Monster Hunter due to the series being popular more than ever, plus its legacy and Nintendo history. MH World brought the series to the forefront and overall the future of the series is looking very bright. However, there are several things that almost kills the chances of Monster Hunter happening. First, you have to wonder why they didn't announce Monster hunter when they announced Rathalos. I understand limited time and budget for the base game, but Monster Hunter wasn't even in the first fighters pass. That means that when Nintendo negotiated for Rathalos, they weren't interested in the Monster Hunter. Second, I believe one of the producers of the series stated that they are more interested in using the monsters in crossovers rather than the hunters themselves. While we do have Monster Hunter in Marvel vs Capcom Infinite as a counterpoint, that statement still really hurts the hunter's chances. Not to mention heavy competition from fan favorites Phoenix Wright and Dante.

Want: 80%

While I would prefer Phoenix as the Capcom rep, I would still really enjoy having the Monster hunter in Smash. The series has incredible music, fantastic hunter armor and monster designs, and a plethora of cool moveset potential. Lances, Gunlances, hammers, Bowguns, Switch Axe, Insect Glaive, etc. The potential is humongous for a sick moveset. There is also a variety of great stages to choose from, and overall the series has a unique charm to it and I would love for it to have more representation.

Predictions: Freddy Fazbear - 3% (hahahahahaha....hahahahaha man this is going to be an interesting day)

Noms: Concept: Contra rep x5

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain on Ammy

Monster Hunters, Inc.
Chance: 50%
It’s technically already in through its two songs and Rathalos as both a boss and an Assist Trophy, plus the Monster Hunter Mii costumes from Smash 4. However, this doesn’t necessarily rule out a fighter.

Want: 30%
Wouldn’t exactly be against it, but not bug on it either. I played an Iceborne demo back at E3 2019 and it WAS fun, but not exactly easy to get into.

Freddy Fazbear: 0%

Noms: Sirfetch’d x5

 

[Cadillac]

Abstain on Amaterasu. I hardly know about her other than some basic stuff.

Monster Hunter

Chance: 9%
Now this is an interesting case. Back in Smash 4 there were Monster Hunter Mii costumes, but cut in Ultimate. There was a Rathalos AT reveal, and people thought Monster Hunter was going to be revealed as a fighter, but there was no reveal. Same goes for Fighters Pass 1. MH is a popular Capcom franchise, and I think Capcom is willing to support Smash, so I can see Hunter making in. However, it's kind of odd for Hunter to be revealed as a fighter way after the Rathlos AT reveal. There is still a chance that MH will return as a costume as well. Overall, I think MH has good chance, but the timing will be a bit off in my opinion.

Want: 67%
Never played Monster Hunter before and I don't really know much about them other than they hunt monsters(duh) and they use different weapons. But it would be a cool addition nonetheless. Those armors look amazing. They could work similar to Byleth and use different weapons for different moves, but I kind of hope they use the sword and shield combo from the costumes as normals and use different tools as specials. I really liked the design of the Hunter's knife set.

Prediction
Freddy Fazbear: 3%

Noms
Hornet(Hollow Knight) x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

I'll be abstaining on Ammy too.
The true monster is you
Chance: 0.2%
I'm not the type of person to rate a character lowly for being similar to somebody else on the roster but I will say Byleth with their multi weapon moveset make me even less confident in a playable Hunter. That, and I'm of the opinion that Rathalos might be enough representation. Their shot was with the base game. Right now, I don't see Monster Hunter getting anything beyond the Smash 4 costumes returning. And, while their franchises don't pull up as many numbers, it seems to be wildly agreed Dante and Phoenix are likelier and huge competition for the Hunter.

Want: 1%
Monter Hunter seems like a difficult series to get into for me compared to other Capcom franchises. I also can't really get attached to the Hunters themselves since they're pretty much blank slates. Might have a cool playstyle but that's not what I'm looking for currently. (I will admit I still would've preferred them to Byleth tho)

Freddy: 0.87% oh boy
Alucard x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Amaterasu
Chance: 15%
Nothing's really changed for Ammy. She seems to be possible, but not on the same level as Phoenix or Dante. Solid 3rd choice though.

Want: 25%
Amaterasu is nowhere near the top of my list. I wouldn't be mad if she got in, but I wouldn't be super excited either.

Monster Hunter:
Chance: 0%
Here's what I don't get about Monster Hunter. If they were going to be in the game, why wouldn't they have been announced with Rathalos? You'd have to assume that Nintendo would have got the rights to use Monster Hunter when they got Rathalos. They'd probably be able to get them both at the same time. So why exactly would Monster Hunter not have been in the base roster? We already know Capcom was willing to give characters for the base roster from getting Ken. The DLC sales argument could be used here, sure. But in that case, why would Monster Hunter not have been in Fighters Pass 1?

Finally, we have his competition, mainly Phoenix and Dante. Phoenix is a highly requested character who's games have all been on Nintendo platforms. Dante is getting his games ported over to the switch, which was a condition he needed to get in smash as stated by his creator.

We also have that statement of "Monsters are the main focus of the game, not the hunter" or something like that. That hurts him alot.

Want: 0%
This one would piss me off. Not because I hate the character, the Monster Hunter series, Capcom, or anything like that. It would piss me off because what in the actual **** was going on here? Why hold him off until Fighters Pass 2 when you probably got the rights to use him during the base roster? Why are you going back for Monster Hunter but not Geno, Rex, or Waluigi? Why are Dante and Phoenix being ignored for a character that missed his chance? Monster Hunter is one of the least logical picks out there for Smash Ulitmate. Future smash games, fine. But not for this one


Predict: Freddy 2.5%

Noms: Gnar x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Alright, time to dust off the old template. I'll be honest, I've missed doing these posts. *Ahem*...

THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE

Day 405: Freddy Fazbear (Five Nights at Freddy's)
Day 406: Kazuma Kiryu (Yakuza)
Day 407: The Blob (de Blob)
Day 408: Crypto (Destroy All Humans!)
Day 409: Concept: Octopath Traveler rep
Day 410: Carmen Sandiego (Carmen Sandiego)
Day 411: Travis Touchdown (No More Heroes)

In this last day Freddy Fazbear reached 300 noms and Octopath Traveler rep passed Carmen Sandiego. But otherwise this top seven has been the same for a while, so hardly any surprises.

Your new top seven consists of Reporter & Wrestler, Mii Costume: Quote, Mii Costume: Hollow Knight, Gex, Paper Mario, Chun-Li, and Bubsy.

I remember when Hollow Knight's Mii Costume was in the top seven and Quote's entered the nominations list, now they're both in the top seven together. It's really been a while since we started the fixed schedule.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Shantae/Bomberman/Shovel Knight pre-Amaterasu/Monster Hunter

Reporter & Wrestler x130
Mii Costume: Quote x130
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Gex x110
[Rerate] Paper Mario x105
Chun-Li x90
Bubsy x90

100 - 51

Big Daddy (BioShock) x85
Ryo Hazuki x85
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x75
Decidueye x75
Segata Sanshiro x75
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x70
Meowth x69
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Falinks x65
Gnar (League of Legends) x65

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Earthworm Jim x50
Concept: Darksiders rep x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x33
Terra Branford x33
Concept: DLC music packs x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
[Rerate] Kratos x25
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x25

Under 25

Alucard (Castlevania) x20
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x19
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Zeraora x15
Sirfetch'd x15
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x13
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Concept: Level-5 rep x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Ahri (League of Legends) x10
Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game x10
Black Shadow x8
Chell x8
Concept: Returning stages x7
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Otto Matic x5
Concept: New Zelda character x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Lora and Jin x5
Magolor x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
3 Mage Sisters x2

 

[Jomosensual]

Monster Hunter

Chance 4 - I dont think this is happening. If there was interest in a playable MH rep I think we would have gotten it in the base game with Rathalos being announced. There's also the issue of competition from a stacked Capcom lineup and the fact that Byleth has basically what the hunters moveset could be now so even though there would be different weapons it wouldnt feel very unqiue. Dont see this happening.

Want 0 - No interesting in the Hunter. Dante and Phoenix interest me a lot more and so does something like another Street Fighter rep. Also, I dont want another boring generic avatar character in the game. Overall, it's a no from me here.


Ammy
Chance 10 - Think this is the 3rd or 4th most likely choice for Capcom reps depending on how I feel about Street Fighters chances on the day. Somewhat requested, although less than the big 2. Also is somewhat well known although once again less than the top 2. Would be a very unique character so that's a big thing for her but otherwise I think there just might be too much ahead of her right now

Want 20 - I'd rather get Dante or Phoenix in Smash first. After that sure, why not. Also don't really have any connection to the character so it's tough for me to find interest in this. Love the art style though. That's some really cool looking stuff and would be fun to see on Ammy's eventual stage.

Predictions
Freddy .5%

Noms:
Big Daddy x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain on both. I don't know anything about either of them.

Nominations: Magolor x2, [Rerate] Andy x3

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Having a bit of a stressful day so I'm gonna keep things brief for now and abstain on both (plus my rating for Ameterasu hasn't really changed since last time).

Though in regards to Ameterasu, she's a great choice with Nintendo history and some incredibly unique moveset potential, but is mainly held back by competition and a lack of new releases, though softened by Okami HD's release on Switch a couple of years ago. She has a decent amount of fan demand and not all DLC picks have been top demand choices but characters like Dante and Phoenix Wright have louder and more prominent fandoms, which may make or break her chances as a Capcom rep.

As for Monter Hunter, much of the same applies, with the added roadblock that most DLC fighters didn't have content in the base game. We already have a couple of Monter Hunter songs along with Rathalos as a boss (with his own stage no less) so if anything Monster Hunter's biggest shot was base game. There is the odd absence of the Mii Costume (while other Capcom costumes have returned) but it could easily come with another character instead.

Nominations:
Concept: Civilization series Stage with music (Standalone) x5

Predictions:
Freddy Fazbear - 5.43%

 

[BowserKing]

Amaterasu

Chance; 10%. While we already have 3 Capcom Reps, Amaterasu would be a unique choice, since she is wolf based, but she also has deadly abilities. There is competition between her, the other Capcom Reps and other fighters, but who knows, she could get in. Chances are, she may not be the next Capcom rep, but who knows.

Want: 60%. She would be fun to play as, and her teaming up with Wolf or Lucario is a no brainer. Her attacks would be quite deadly and fun, and who knows, I could see her franchise get more popular. That is all I'm going to say about that.

Monster Hunter

Chance: 15%. We technically got Monster Hunter Representation, in the form of Rathalos as a boss and assist trophy, but the Monster Hunter could make it in. Competition would be a concern, but Monster Hunter would do better then most Capcom reps, due to them not being playable yet. But then again, who knows.

Want: 50%. I honestly prefer it if a monster from there is playable, but I think the Monster Hunter would be fun to play as. And I'm 100% sure that Monster Hunter would fight Rathalos as the final boss in classic mode. I can see them fight Ridley as well. But then again, who knows what will happen.

Prediction: Freddy Fazbear (10%)

Noms: 2 for Falinks and 3 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion

 

[Sari]

Amaterasu

Chance: 5%
Phoenix and Dante are big hurdles when it comes to another Capcom character. I just can't see Amaterasu getting in over any of those two, even with Okami being a classic.

Want: Abstain
Didn't get far into Okami so I won't comment. I will say when it comes to Capcom characters, Okami is on the higher end of my interests.

-----

Monster Hunter

Chance: 10%
We got Rathalos as both a boss and assist trophy as well as two Monster Hunter songs in the base game. While I do think that base game characters have a shot for the second Fighters Pass (see my giant writeup on Rex's chances), I feel like Monster Hunter is set in stone when it comes to content. They'll probably just release the Monster Hunter Mii Costumes from SSB4 and call it a day. Like I said with Amaterasu, I feel like both Sakurai and Nintendo would focus on introducing non-represented Capcom series into Ultimate instead.

Want: Abstain
I never got into the MH series so I won't comment.

-----

Freddy Fazbear chance prediction: 1.84% (well this day is going to be... something)

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x5

 

[Ninjaed]

Monster Hunter

Chance: 1%
I'm of the mind that Monster Hunter is already represented in Smash by Rathalos who is both an AT and a boss. MH somply missed their opportunity, though the franchise was given 2 accolades already so it's honestly not that bad. Besides, when I think "Monster Hunter", I think "monster-hunting", not about the character you control. It makes more sense for MH to be represented by a famous monster than by its generic avatar.

Want: 5%
While the concept could have some interest, I don't see what it could bring to Smash that's so fresh and unique that it'd deserve the slot more than other candidates. That's part of why I give it such a low chance score btw, but that also affects my want score as I'd like crazy new stuff in my DLC pack.

Amaterasu

Chance: 15%
Strong points include: a good history with Nintendo including a Nintendo-exclusive sequel, mad potential for a fresh, unique and fun moveset, not being a humanoid, some cult following (excellent game btw, worth a try... shame some of my friends couldn't get past the artstyle) like Xenoblade had before Shulk was introduced, Japanese folklore (she's litterally named after the japanese sun goddess, the entire game is a love letter to japanese folklore)... If the games had sold more, I'd have definitely seen Okami become a new flagship for Capcom. And that's where the case for Ammy starts to crumble down... it's sadly not as big nor famous as Ace Attorney or Devil May Cry. On top of that, unlike Xenoblade, Okami is not 1st party and it's about DLC not base game so that definitely shoots holes where it hurts the most. It could still happen if Sakurai convinces the higher-ups she has the best potential... and that's assuming Capcom gets a new rep in the first place.

Want: 100%
One of my most wanted by far. She's one of those candidates where you wonder what her moveset should be, not what it could be. There's so much to take from her game... except the painting mechanic, for obvious reasons. Speaking of, I wonder how that could be implemented. Maybe have those ink eggs (they always looked like eggs to me, okay?) as a gauge for her specials. Like, down b would draw a temporary platform beneath her to land upon, like those nenuphars on the water. Or side b blowing the wind. Or... okay I'll try to contain my excitement, sorry.

Predictions: Freddy Fazbear - 1.1%

Nominations: Segata Sanshiro x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Day 404: Ratings not found

Chance (Amaterasu): 25%. I could see her getting in before Phoenix Wright, who I still expect a Spirit event of, but she is probably not getting in before Dante. However that's not really why I gave her this rating, it's mostly because Okami's future has been relatively uncertain, what with the most recent game in the series being Okamiden back in... 2011? The original game lives on through re-releases, sure, but there's not really much of a promotional reason to go after her. Sakurai would go for Ammy, but I don't think Nintendo would.

Chance (Monster Hunter): 1%. I'm thinking that the Mii Costume for them (or rather, the Rathalos Armor) is gonna come back. I think they missed the boat with the base game having Monster Hunter content. As others have said, it doesn't make sense to include them now when they could've been in the base game. Were it not for that little incident I'd be going far higher, but as it stands I think the MH ship sailed when they put in an entire boss fight dedicated to Rathalos. However they themselves aren't in the game yet, so this could be MH's ticket to victory.

Want (Amaterasu): 70%. Easily the only Capcom character I actually care about individually. Okami is nothing short of a masterpiece, and I reccomend everybody go out and play it. While I usually don't get the hype for quadrupeds, I do for this one in particular.

Want (Monster Hunter): Spoiler warning, I don't care about this character. 15%. It'd be higher if I actually liked what I had of Monster Hunter but this isn't for me. Plus, I'm not entirely sure what this character could bring anymore after Byleth basically stole what would've been their main hook. Sure, they wouldn't be a clone of Byleth, that's not what I'm saying. But overall a lot of their magic, the "WOW! So many weapons in one moveset!" thing that MH could've had was sniped.

Paper Mario x 5. I think Freddy's a lock... for a Mii Costume, so 0.43% since we're rating him getting in. There will also be at least 4 0%'s.

 

[GoodGrief741]

One of these characters is a dog and the other one hunts so add Phoenix and we've got the Duck Hunt trio

Amaterasu
Chances: 5%
I can't really see her getting in over Phoenix or Dante. In the Capcom fight, Phoenix beats everyone in the popularity and Nintendo history departments, while Dante currently is the biggest and most relevant series in play (give or take Monster Hunter). Both are series that defined their genres, while Okami is just an excellent specimen of it. Both those series have more sales and more relevance. What helps Ammy is that her game keeps getting rereleased - so clearly Capcom cares or sees potential in it, you don't see them porting Viewtiful Joe everywhere. And she does have a sizable request base, maybe second only to Phoenix as far as Capcom goes.

Want: 85%
I'd love to see Ammy get in, especially because it would 100% have the Bayonetta effect and turn her series from cult classic to just classic. But yeah, Phoenix and Dante are first for me, hence why the score isn't higher.

Monster Hunter
Chance: 1%
I'll just echo everyone else and say that I think Monster Hunter is more appropriately represented through the monsters than through the hunter. I know the devs agree, and I'm pretty sure Sakurai agrees. The content we got kinda backs that notion as well, so I wouldn't expect more than the Mii Costume back.

As for want, I think Monster Hunter should still get a character. There's a ton they could bring moveset-wise (anyone who feels that 4-weapons Byleth fulfills all that potential clearly hasn't even seen gameplay of Monster Hunter) and I think a full-on stage with music would be pretty cool. It's one of Capcom's biggest series so I think it certainly deserves more than a boss in a half-assed stage to sometimes face in Classic Mode.

But on the other hand I've only barely played Monster Hunter, and there's like 4 Capcom characters I want more than Monster Hunter, so instead of giving a low score I'll abstain.

Noms: Ryo Hazuki x10
I'm just realizing that I got Yakuza on the board and now I'm doing the same with proto-Yakuza.

Freddy Fazbear prediction: everyone will give 0% and then 3DSNinja will give like an 80% so let's assume there's over 10 answers, that gives us around a 6.7%

 

[Proceleon]

Amaterasu
Chance 25%: If it's a Capcom classic from the Wii era, then Ammy's pretty much number one. Dante may be slightly edging her out, but she's a very prominent Nintendo ally.

Want 63%: I do want her the most out of Capcom's selection though, so she gets a good score here.

Monster Hunter
Chance 3%: They're nowhere near likely now that we've gone this long with any more than a Rathalos.

Want 10%: Not super keen on them, but lugging around a sword or club twice the size of your body is an interesting concept.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Shantae
10.89% Chance - 54.28% Want
First time we rated her she got 7.17% chance and 48.96% want. This was before Joker's reveal, when being a Spirit was seen as a death sentence. Still, despite completely dissimilar situations, Shantae's scores are startlingly similar. Last time we rated her she got 10.25% chance and 44.94% want. I think it's worth pointing out that Shantae is infamous in this thread for having a large contingent of fans that give out high scores - yet despite that, yesterday, not many showed up, and the scores are eerily similar. That may point to people giving her better scores when not faced by her fans, which, if I was a supporter, I'd certainly take note of. Also of note is that despite many feeling she would be overrated, it was you, the thread usuals, who gave her these high scores.
Winner of predictions was Ninjaed by virtue of being the lowest prediction, with a precise 13.00%

Bomberman
4.16% Chance - 55.00% Want
Last time we rated him he got 9.94% chance and 64.25% want. This was during a semi-hypothetical rating where any notions against ATs were discarded. Yet his drop in want was noticeable. I was surprised when calculating these scores, as both Bomberman and Shovel Knight got tons of zeroes in want, even from people claiming to have played and liked their games; I guess for some people, the character already being in the game is all it takes for them to become a bad pick.
Winners of predictions were warpenguin55 and Jomosensual both with a precise 4.00%

Shovel Knight
5.03% Chance - 48.71% Want
Last time we rated him he got 5.15% chance and 53.21% want. Same as Bomberman, and same potential explanation for his dip in want.
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 4.89%

This is all moot now, as today an interview with Yacht Club came out where they express their desire for Shovel Knight to be in Smash, so the dude's basically disconfirmed.

Ye who hast extra nomes

Artix 15
Awakining 5
Calamitas 5
DanganZilla5 15
DaUsername 57
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 38
Icedragonadam 10
Jomosensual 5
NintenRob 110
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 10
Perkilator 5
Ramen Tengoku 5
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 10
warpenguin55 5
Wunderwaft 10

Anyway, just in case someone didn't read it (I don't even know if people read the calcs), an interview with Yacht Club games came out. It talks about their wishes for Shovel Knight in Smash and how Nintendo never approached them for anything beyond an AT, they then mention how they hope he gets in for the next Smash or some other game in the future. I think that's enough to call Shovel Knight disconfirmed as well. I'd do the big thing where I write Disconfirmed in bold and put in his noms and scores, but his scores are right above and he has no noms so I'll skip the fanfare.

Still, a shame.

Amaterasu
Chance 25%: If it's a Capcom classic from the Wii era, then Ammy's pretty much number one. Dante may be slightly edging her out, but she's a very prominent Nintendo ally.

Want 63%: I do want her the most out of Capcom's selection though, so she gets a good score here.

Monster Hunter
Chance 3%: They're nowhere near likely now that we've gone this long with any more than a Rathalos.

Want 10%: Not super keen on them, but lugging around a sword or club twice the size of your body is an interesting concept.

That's a strange criteria. Just because she's on the Wii she's the number one Capcom character? Even then, Dead Rising, Monster Hunter, Ace Attorney, and Resident Evil (among others) are Capcom franchises present on the Wii.

Now that I think about it, even though it's the best version, Okami isn't even originally a Wii game. So obviously this can only mean that the true number one Capcom reps are Zack & Wiki.

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain

Prediction on Freddy 0%

Nominate someone who isn't the main character x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Spoiler: Calcs

Shantae
10.89% Chance - 54.28% Want
First time we rated her she got 7.17% chance and 48.96% want. This was before Joker's reveal, when being a Spirit was seen as a death sentence. Still, despite completely dissimilar situations, Shantae's scores are startlingly similar. Last time we rated her she got 10.25% chance and 44.94% want. I think it's worth pointing out that Shantae is infamous in this thread for having a large contingent of fans that give out high scores - yet despite that, yesterday, not many showed up, and the scores are eerily similar. That may point to people giving her better scores when not faced by her fans, which, if I was a supporter, I'd certainly take note of. Also of note is that despite many feeling she would be overrated, it was you, the thread usuals, who gave her these high scores.
Winner of predictions was Ninjaed by virtue of being the lowest prediction, with a precise 13.00%

Bomberman
4.16% Chance - 55.00% Want
Last time we rated him he got 9.94% chance and 64.25% want. This was during a semi-hypothetical rating where any notions against ATs were discarded. Yet his drop in want was noticeable. I was surprised when calculating these scores, as both Bomberman and Shovel Knight got tons of zeroes in want, even from people claiming to have played and liked their games; I guess for some people, the character already being in the game is all it takes for them to become a bad pick.
Winners of predictions were warpenguin55 and Jomosensual both with a precise 4.00%

Shovel Knight
5.03% Chance - 48.71% Want
Last time we rated him he got 5.15% chance and 53.21% want. Same as Bomberman, and same potential explanation for his dip in want.
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 4.89%

This is all moot now, as today an interview with Yacht Club came out where they express their desire for Shovel Knight to be in Smash, so the dude's basically disconfirmed.

Ye who hast extra nomes

Artix 15
Awakining 5
Calamitas 5
DanganZilla5 15
DaUsername 57
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 38
Icedragonadam 10
Jomosensual 5
NintenRob 110
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 10
Perkilator 5
Ramen Tengoku 5
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 10
warpenguin55 5
Wunderwaft 10

Anyway, just in case someone didn't read it (I don't even know if people read the calcs), an interview with Yacht Club games came out. It talks about their wishes for Shovel Knight in Smash and how Nintendo never approached them for anything beyond an AT, they then mention how they hope he gets in for the next Smash or some other game in the future. I think that's enough to call Shovel Knight disconfirmed as well. I'd do the big thing where I write Disconfirmed in bold and put in his noms and scores, but his scores are right above and he has no noms so I'll skip the fanfare.

Still, a shame.


That's a strange criteria. Just because she's on the Wii she's the number one Capcom character? Even then, Dead Rising, Monster Hunter, Ace Attorney, and Resident Evil (among others) are Capcom franchises present on the Wii.

Now that I think about it, even though it's the best version, Okami isn't even originally a Wii game. So obviously this can only mean that the true number one Capcom reps are Zack & Wiki.

Forgive me for my skepticism, but do you have a source on the Shovel Knight thing?

 

[Icedragonadam]

Rule 63 Wolf Link. Wait that's the other way around.

Chance: 10%

She's one of those darkhorse picks. Unfortunately she has competition by Dante and Phoenix Wright. Bother of whom had more games and success than her series does.

Want: 50%.

She'd be interesting. Especially with the paintbrush.

Pokemon, Digimon- I mean Monster Hunter

Chance: 0.1%

Monster Hunter already has content in Smash. Rathalos is a boss, Assist trophy and spirit. And the music Monster Hunter has is in the Other section.

Want: 10%

I have no interest in this series. And I got a bad impression with their portrayal in MvCI.

Nominate Darksiders rep x10

Freddy Prediction: 4.55%

 

[Wunderwaft]

Amaterasu

Chance: 15%
Poor Ammy has seen better days. Her one game has been ported multiple times and Kamiya has spoken of interest in collaborating with Capcom and making a sequel. It hasn't happened yet and it doesn't seem there will be any news about the franchise in the future. As a result Amaterasu remains as a character that Capcom ignores unless it's a crossover game with all of Capcom IPs. She's not the most popular Capcom character nor is she the most successful one.


Want: 55%
I think Amaterasu would be pretty cool, I still hasn't played her game but from what I've seen from MvC she'd be pretty neat. There are still other Capcom characters I'd prefer.



Monster Hunter

Chance: 40%
Everyone is underrating the possibility of a Monster Hunter rep. It is no secret that Monster Hunter has become one of Capcom's most successful franchises, with MHW becoming the best selling Capcom title ever. I don't see Rathalos as a hit against Monster Hunter's chances, if anything I see it as a boon, especially since it appeared in the base game and not DLC. Monster Hunter could have had much more spirits of monsters added yet we got nothing. Nothing added in DLC, only Rathalos. Hell, the mii costume of Monster Hunter still hasn't come back. I believe it's the only Capcom Mii costume that still hasn't come back. Sure, the possibility that the costume could return in future packs exist, but the possibility that the costumes are held back because there might be a Monster Hunter fighter also exists.

Monster Hunter is a large franchise with rich Nintendo history and mainstream worldwide popularity. I don't think the Rathalos boss fight hinders a Monster Hunter fighter being included in the future, especially since we don't have the base game to hinder us anymore.


Want: 90%
I would reaaally love it if Monster Hunter gets a playable fighter. It's one of the most fun experiences I've had while gaming and it introduced me to a lot of new friends. A playable Hunter would be really exciting with how so many weapons are available, from something as simple as a greatsword to something as ludicrous as a gunlance. The Hunter would be an excellent addition to Smash.



Predictions: Freddy 3.8%
Nomination: Kratos x5

 

[3DSNinja]

abstaining on both.
Nominations: Minato Arisato x5 (any noms for the Persona 3 Protag, Makoto Yuki, or Sakuya Shiomi are all for this guy btw)

 

[GoodGrief741]

Forgive me for my skepticism, but do you have a source on the Shovel Knight thing?

Oh, sure, I thought it would have spread around already, but here:

https://www.fanbyte.com/features/how-shovel-knight-became-the-stan-lee-of-indie-game-cameos/

 

[Ninjaed]

So… What about the money? Does Yacht Club get paid for all these guest spots? Again, it varies. If Shovel Knight appears as a paid add-on of some sort, then of course the studio receives some financial kickback. But the character usually acts as a free unlockable character or NPC, something Yacht Club allows developers to do equally free of charge.

Nice! That obviously helps bolster his popularity which is a smart move, but it's also a bro move. Still, RIP Shovel Knight's chances to be playable in Smash - though a dedicated AT is already more than so many get.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Nice! That obviously helps bolster his popularity which is a smart move, but it's also a bro move. Still, RIP Shovel Knight's chances to be playable in Smash - though a dedicated AT is already more than so many get.

I think the fact that they'd be willing to do it for free also really helps Shovel Knight's chances for a future game.

 

[Ridrool64]

Chance Key: Green = Frontrunner (50+%), Blue = Solid Shot (35+%), White is Possible (20+%), Orange is Feasible (10%), Light Red is Very Unlikely (5%) and Deep Red is below that, Pipe Dream. With so many unlikely characters/concepts, I decided to split the bottom tier.

By chance:

Spoiler: Chance Totals

1. Ryu Hayabusa: 59.48% Chance
2. Crash Bandicoot: 59.26% Chance
3. Lloyd Irving: 50.29% Chance
4. Dante: 49.38% Chance
5. Phoenix Wright: 43.94% Chance
6. Geno: 42.50% Chance
7. Sora: 40.58% Chance
8. Arle Nadja: 39.29% Chance
9. Heihachi Mishima: 37.58% Chance
10. 2B: 35.41% Chance
11. Sol Badguy: 31.00% Chance
12. Lara Croft: 29.50% Chance
13. Cinderace: 26.63% Chance
14. Reimu Hakurei: 24.98% Chance
15. Bandana Dee: 21.70% Chance
16. Isaac: 20.45% Chance
17. Waluigi: 19.81% Chance
18. Dovahkiin: 19.69% Chance
19. Nightmare: 18.74% Chance
20. Master Chief: 18.27% Chance
21. Dixie Kong: 18.08% Chance
22. Rex: 17.52% Chance
23. Tracer: 17.37% Chance
24. Rillaboom: 16.11% Chance
25. Ragna the Bloodedge: 14.25% Chance
26. Inteleon: 12.41% Chance
27. Toxtricity: 12.34% Chance
28. Rayman: 11.53% Chance
29. Urshifu: 11.43% Chance
30. Shantae: 10.89% Chance
31. Spyro the Dragon: 9.58% Chance
32. KOS-MOS: 8.87% Chance
33. Echo Fighters as DLC: 7.53% Chance
34. Elma: 6.48% Chance
35. Neku Sakuraba: 6.46% Chance
36. Standalone Stage DLC: 5.74% Chance
37. Skull Kid: 5.46% Chance
38. The Knight: 4.62% Chance
39. Midna: 4.33% Chance
40. Bomberman: 4.16% Chance - 55.00% Want
41. Thrall: 3.07% Chance
42. Doomguy: 2.86% Chance (would be in the Deceased, but we gave him ratings, so should I move him there?)
43. Obstagoon: 2.18% Chance
44. Vault Boy: 1.82% Chance
45. Melmetal: 1.71% Chance
46. Hat Kid: 0.85% Chance

Want key: Pink = Community Stars (#FF69B4) [65+%], Brown = Fan Favorites [#8B4513] (60+%), Yellow = Popular (40+%), Purple is Average (25+%), Black is Unpopular (below 25%).

By want:

Spoiler: Want Totals

1. Crash Bandicoot: 75.78% Want
2. Echo Fighters as DLC: 75.40% Want
3. Bandana Dee: 74.41% Want
4. Phoenix Wright: 70.91% Want
5. Dixie Kong: 70.52% Want
6. Standalone Stage DLC: 70.88% Want
7. Lara Croft: 69.06% Want
8. Isaac: 67.22% Want
9. Ryu Hayabusa: 64.32% Want
10. Dante: 64.23% Want
11. 2B: 64.09% Want
12. Geno: 62.93% Want
13. Skull Kid: 61.30% Want
14. Master Chief: 60.94% Want
15. Waluigi: 60.75% Want
16. Arle Nadja: 60.50% Want
17. Reimu Hakurei: 60.05% Want
18. Nightmare: 57.27% Want
19. Midna: 57.17% Want
20. Bomberman: 55.00% Want
21. Sora: 54.44% Want
22. Shantae: 54.28% Want
23. Neku Sakuraba: 53.89% Want
24. Heihachi: 53.60% Want
25. Rayman: 52.35% Want
26. Spyro the Dragon: 52.04% Want
27. Elma & Sol Badguy: 51.18% Want (tied)
28. Rex: 50.95% Want
29. The Knight: 50.12% Want
30. Lloyd Irving: 47.85% Want
31. Dovahkiin: 47.40% Want
32. Doomguy: 44.15% Want
33. Toxtricity: 41.62% Want
34. Ragna the Bloodedge: 37.19% Want
35. KOS-MOS: 35.24% Want
36. Cinderace: 27.71% Want
37. Rillaboom: 27.47% Want
38. Inteleon: 27.00% Want
39. Thrall: 26.50% Want
40. Hat Kid: 23.69% Want
41. Tracer: 22.73% Want
42. Melmetal: 21.10% Want
43. Vault Boy: 20.40% Want
44. Obstagoon: 18.27% Want
45. Urshifu: 16.46% Want

The Deceased: (gonna roll with what GoodGrief and Sari say.)

1. Ring Fit Trainer (90 Nominations) | Spirit Event
2. Shovel Knight (5.03% Chance, 48.71% Want) | Interview

Takeaways: Despite all expectations, Shantae actually got many more reasonable scores, that ended up averaging out to what it would've been when... her fans were around. Shovel Knight is considered dead, but not Doom Slayer, despite being in the same position? I dunno. Bomberman got the likely usual for Assist Trophies who aren't named Waluigi or have a flood of supporters.

 

[Shinuto]

Damn Shovel Knight....wha happened?

 

[Cadillac]

Damn Shovel Knight....wha happened?

There was an interview about Yacht Club Games, who said that Nintendo approached them with the AT idea only. So Shovel Knight was out from the start.

 

[[Maple]]

Amaterasu

Chance: 10%

I can't see Capcom going for Ammy when there is other franchise with way more commercial potential.

Want: 25%

I've never played Okami but she has a cool design. Not my first choice for a Capcom rep but a cool one.

Monster Hunter

Chance: 15%

It is still one of Capcom's biggest IP and a true monument in Japan, but I feel like The Hunter would have been way more logical for the base game alongside the rathalos.

Want: 100%

I LOVE Monster Hunter. I have so many good memories playing it with my friends. The intense combats, forging armor and weapons, the OST, etc. It has a special place in my heart. My first pick for a Capcom rep.

 

[Calamitas]

The Sun Rises, again

Chance: 45%
I'm not going too deeply into my rating here, since we just rated Amaterasu towards the end of last October. Okami is a cult classic game that has been ported to every modern console since the PS3 and XBox 360, and even had a Wii port since then. Amaterasu would be one of the most unique potential DLC newcomers, by not only her vast variety of powers, but also by simply being an exclusively quadruped fighter. Her main competition from Capcom right now are either Dante or Phoenix Wright, and while I'll admit that it's easier to see them getting in first, I don't think it's an impossibility for Ammy to get in before them.

Want: 100%
I mean, last time we rated here it was pretty much exclusively because I pushed for her with nominations. Okami is still one of my favourite games of all time, and I'd love to see it represented in Smash.

Their name is "Hunter", first name "Monster"

Chance: 5%
We already got Rathalos. If a playable character from this series was in the cards, it would've already long since happened. But, as can plainly be seen, it hasn't happened yet.

Want: Abstain
Never played the Monster Hunter series. It is also doesn't exactly seem all that interesting to me personally.

Predicting Freddy to get around 0.38%.

Nomating. . . uhhh, let's see. . .
Let's go with Concept: New Zelda character x10

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate... ugh... Freddy Fazbear from Five Nights at Freddy's...

Predict Kazuma Kiryu from the Yakuza series.

We're done with double days for the time being so keep in mind that these upcoming ratings won't be as long as the ones we've had over the past few weeks.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the cheap jumpscare game that literally every clickbait Youtuber has played mood:

Freddy songs

Spoiler: Five Nights at Freddy's Music

It's funny that the Shantae/Bomberman/Shovel Knight day was the most fun I ever had creating the music posts. Two ratings later, I'm now searching for these songs through an incognito tab because the last thing I want in my Youtube feed is FNaF crap.

 

[Perkilator]

Not even worthy as Mii Cotume Fodder
I’m abstaining completely. I’m not touching this subject with a 39,000 1/2 foot pole.

Kiryu: 50%

Noms: Sirfetch’d x5

 

[Cadillac]

Day over.

Rate... ugh... Freddy Fazbear from Five Nights at Freddy's...

Predict Kazuma Kiryu from the Yakuza series.

We're done with double days for the time being so keep in mind that these upcoming ratings won't be as long as the ones we've had over the past few weeks.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the cheap jumpscare game that literally every clickbait Youtuber has played mood:

Freddy songs

Spoiler: Five Nights at Freddy's Music

It's funny that the Shantae/Bomberman/Shovel Knight day was the most fun I ever had creating the music posts. Two ratings later, I'm now searching for these songs through an incognito tab because the last thing I want in my Youtube feed is FNaF crap.

Wow. You really seem to hate FNaF. Can't blame you, though.

Freddy Fazbear
Chance: 0%
Was really big back in 2014-2015. I remember checking every youtube video about this game and get excited for the sequel. It did make a huge impact in horror games. However, that's about it. I've never really seen genuine supporters out there, or evidences about him getting in. Sure it's Sakurai, so he might pull something. But currently, I think the best that he's going to get in is a Mii costume.

Want
0%
Ha ha, no.
I used to really like this series, but not now. Like I said before about Shovel Knight, for the indies I would do anything to see Hornet playable in Ultimate. Also if he gets in he might divide the community way worse than Byleth did. I like to see people going crazy over reveals, but not to the point where it's just arguments.

Prediction
Kazuma: 12%

Noms: Hornet(Hollow Knight) x5

 

[RouffWestie]

Freddy
Chance: 5%
The game definitely made it big in the West. How much It succeeded in Japan might be more important. I don't think Freddy's left enough of an impact in their hometown that Nintendo would choose him for DLC in Smash.
Want: 1%
Would be worth a laugh and nothing more. I never played the franchise and it doesn't look like something I'd be into. Might prefer him being mii costume d.

 

[Sari]

Spooky jumpscare bear

Chance: 0.1%
Like I said a few days ago, it's hard to imagine an indie character becoming playable especially with other indies getting smaller roles in Ultimate. At best, I can see Freddy being a Mii costume especially since it could be another deluxe outfit that covers the face like the Sans and Cuphead costumes.

Want: 0%
I'd take literally any character over this. I never liked the FNaF series and there are just a ton of indies I'd rather see instead. Oh and if that wasn't bad enough, while doing the music post I learned that the FNaF series has lackluster music that wouldn't fit in Smash. Hard pass.

-----

Kiryu chance prediction: 8.94%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x5

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Freddy

Chance: 0.001%
I sincerely highly doubt it for numerous numerous reasons. The style doesn’t fit in Smash at all, both from a genre perspective and individually as a series (not saying horror or violent games can’t get in). Smash is a game for all ages, and while we have Snake, Bayonetta, Joker, and RE spirits and Fatal Frame ATs, the difference is that the characters of FNAF that are the most iconic are the monsters themselves.

When you include a RE or Fatal Frame Rep, you would probably include the human protagonists, not the actual monsters, and you could keep the game at a rating for kids by just focusing on the protagonist's abilities and not including the actual horror elements (same goes for Snake, Bayonetta, and Joker). You can’t do that for Freddy, the protagonist is completely unseen and not iconic at all compared to the monsters, so the creepiest part of the game are the characters that would be represented and their appearance themselves (not that it matters at all because this rating is for Freddy himself, not the series). Not to mention that the horror comes not from realistic monsters, but from the “ironic clown” trope where something meant for kids is turned into a brutalized form, which honestly makes it even less for kids and more difficult to tone down.



Want: 0%
I really can’t think of another video game character I would like less. I would honestly take Fortnite characters before this, and that’s saying a lot. I already stated how I don't think the style belongs in Smash at all, and there are just hundreds and hundreds of characters I would rather have first.

Also I never cared for cheap jump scare games to begin with, and thus don't have any fondness for the series to start.

 

[Ridrool64]

SmashBoards is never ready to discuss Freddy.

Chance: I actually believe that Five Nights at Freddy's is basically destined to get content at some point. The series is widely known and has quite the following, though it never reached the height of heights it did around 2014-2016. And, joking or not, many have had an interest in seeing the bear come to the series. And I think this will happen, 100%. ...as a Mii Costume. Now, as a Fighter? 0%. I am pretty confident that Freddy won't be playable proper in this game, but it's because I can't see a future where Freddy doesn't get a Mii Costume.

Want: 5%. I dropped the series a while ago and I can't quite remember why. Still, between the battle of the horrific non organic bears, I think Monokuma would be the better choice. And I don't see any actual music potential from the series everybody knows Freddy for. This is probably where Sakurai would finally have a character he can't envision in Smash at all, and it's not necessarily for the moveset but for the things surrounding them.

Paper Mario x 5. Your opinion on if Arle is getting in will likely affect what you think of Kiryu. But I don't expect the scores to be too far apart. 39% on the dot.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Freddy Krueger Fazbear

Chance: 1%

hahhahaha. No. Not gonna happen. FNAF was a fad and while it's still getting games to this day for some reason, its popularity has died way down. It's not a very (genuinely) requested series and it being an indie series definitely hurts. We have Shovel Knight, Quote, Hollow Knight, Reimu, etc. These are characters whose games have received critical acclaim and would fit so much better in Smash than FNAF ever would. Plus I can't see what the moveset and music selection would look like. What would Freddy even be able to do? Damage enemies with screams? This is one of the few series where Sakurai would have a challenging time representing it with enough content that is true to the series of origin. I have to agree with people here and say that Freddy would fit best as a Mii costume or at least a spirit.

Want: 0%

I give very few characters a zero (In fact, I think this is my first zero), so this is saying something. First, despite being a horror fan, I was never that interested in the games. I watched some videos but never had the urge to play them. Second, Freddy would certainly cause a lot of drama, maybe even more so than Byleth. I don't want that. Byleth was bad enough, but this would (rip and) tear apart the community. Third, Freddy is far from the type of character I want to see In Smash. We have Crash Bandicoot, Dante, Phoenix, Doomguy, Master Chief, Quote, Lara Croft, Geno, etc. An excellent lineup of potential and if Freddy toke up one of the six slots, I would be very disappointed. And of course, even when it comes to bear characters, I would 100% choose Monokuma over this guy. I think I've made my point clear. I would be fine with Freddy as a Mii costume or if FNAF got a spirit event, but dear god no when it comes to a playable spot.

Prediction: Kiryu - 35% (an underrated character when it comes to speculation)

Noms: Concept: Contra rep x5

I just want to say, I'm getting more excited for the rating of my man Crypto. I will wait to say more for his day but I'm hyped and will be making a giant post for his rating.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Freddy Fazbear

Chance: 10%
Okay, maybe this a little generous. Five Nights at Freddy's was a phenomenon when it first came out, and is still relatively popular today (at least enough to warrent sequals, books, etc). Also, the games are on the Switch, so he at least has Nintendo presence. Still though, I doubt he'd be the first character they'd use to represent indie games or horror games. Indie horror games, maybe, but not one or the other.
Want: 25%
Honestly? I'd take it so long as they make him interesting. They could reference pretty much anything from the franchise, be it the main games or the spinoffs (the song Stone Cold from FNaF World would fit Smash like a glove). Though I will admit, there are other characters I'd rather have first.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Freddy Fazbear

Chance 0 - Def no. Indie character so that's probably not going to happen. Also nobody is really asking for this character in Smash which will effect Freddy's chances big as an indie rep. Im also not sure what the moveset would be and the music doesn't get me interested either. This isn't going to happen

Want 30 - It would be kinda funny at least. Other than that I don't really want or need Freddy in Smash. I dont have an issue with seeing FnaF Mii Costumes in the game but overall I'm not really that interested in anything else.

Predictions:
Kirya - 25%

Noms:
Falink x5
Big Daddy x5