Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Freddy Flintstone
Chance: 0%
First of, while there have been debates about Smash Bros and violence before, I think a series known for its spooky jumpscares and references to child murder might not be appropiate for this family friendly fighting game. Perhaps it can be worked around? Perhaps it cannot? I don't see Nintendo picking Freddy anyhow. Undertale and Cuphead couldn't get playable fighters despite those games being far more popular in the east and releasing on the Switch with way more fanfare. And Fnaf's peak of popularity has already been reached some time ago. It's just old news now. Not seeing why it would get a fighter over other indies.

I'm also not sure if a challenger pack would be able to do the Fnaf games justice. Honestly, having Freddy, who is almost always motionless yet keeps you on edge just run, jump and roll around on Corneria while holding a Pokeball would remove any form of intimidation from him. Moveset might also be a huge problem, Freddy's screams might be spooky in the context of a horror experience but in a fighting game they'd just get annoying. Then you'd also have to think of how a Fnaf stage would work with its very limited music selection. This is one of the characters I'd think Sakurai would veto against due to Freddy just not being a good fit as a fighter. Mii costume at most! Though I even doubt that's happening.

Want: 0%
I'll complement Scott on what he has achieved but I hold little interest in Fnaf. (no not because it's too scary shut up) First game looked pretty neat but I could care less for anything after that. Even assuming I was a fan of the series, it wouldn't change the problem of Freddy just not fitting in a platform-fighter. There are other indie characters who deserve better, heck other characters from the horror genre too. Thinking about it, Fnaf getting a challenger pack while RE only having some spirits sounds a bit insulting.

Kiryu: 20.43%
Alucard x15

 

[3DSNinja]

Oh no...
chance:30%: I honestly believe Freddy is the most likely indie. All the FNAF games are on Nintendo systems, he's fairly popular, and he has a lot of moveset potential and would represent a genre unrepresented in Smash Bros.
Want:100%: I get that people are going to be mad. But I honestly really like the FNAF games. And Freddy could be a unique character that could have lots of potential. Also FNAF doesn't have bad music, you literally only took from the first three games! Not FNAF World, or sister Location, or Custom Night gives
Look, I would be totally down with Freddy as playable. I'd also be down with him as a mii costume with Don't Go as the music track. I just like these games and also would love horror representation in Smash.
Nominations: Minato Arisato x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Oh no...
chance:30%: I honestly believe Freddy is the most likely indie. All the FNAF games are on Nintendo systems, he's fairly popular, and he has a lot of moveset potential and would represent a genre unrepresented in Smash Bros.
Want:100%: I get that people are going to be mad. But I honestly really like the FNAF games. And Freddy could be a unique character that could have lots of potential. Also FNAF doesn't have bad music, you literally only took from the first three games! Not FNAF World, or sister Location, or Custom Night gives
Look, I would be totally down with Freddy as playable. I'd also be down with him as a mii costume with Don't Go as the music track. I just like these games and also would love horror representation in Smash.
Nominations: Minato Arisato x5

Let me ask you: How does Freddy have "a lot of moveset potential"? Most people here agree that coming up with a viable moveset is difficult. The only thing that Freddy does is scream. He could maybe lunge and scratch, but that's about it.

 

[3DSNinja]

Simple.

FNAF World.

You have every incarnation of Freddy's moveset from World to pull from.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Let me ask you: How does Freddy have "a lot of moveset potential"? Most people here agree that coming up with a viable moveset is difficult. The only thing that Freddy does is scream. He could maybe lunge and scratch, but that's about it.

I don't want to be that person, but I know a Youtuber named BrawlFan1 who made a relatively decent moveset for Freddy.

 

[Deleted member]

Markiplier Rep

Chance: 2%

FNAF is still a very big franchise that has like 10 games, a novel, and a movie that's seemingly stuck in development Hell since 2015, but that's pretty much all it has right now. The biggest problem with FNAF in Smash has to do with the gameplay of the games itself since it's a point and click game where you have to watch out for animatronics. The animatronics themselves don't really have much moves in their arsenal like a few horror related characters do like Pyramid Head or Nemesis, so if Sakurai were to add Freddy, his moveset would probably be mostly original to Smash unless he decides to take inspiration off of FNAF World or Freddy Fazbear's Pizzeria Simulator (though I've never played those games to judge if Freddy has a moveset to base off of). There is potential in a Freddy Fazbear Mii Costume though that would probably fit with the lore of the series, so I wouldn't say his chances are absolutely 0%.

Want: 24%

He isn't my cup of tea for a fighter at all, but it would be pretty funny to see since Freddy's the least expected meme pick for DLC. He's 1 of those characters that sounds so stupid it might actually make me want to see him in Smash, but then again, he feels like a character wished by the Monkey's Paw to me. Since I don't expect ambient FNAF sounds being an OST for Smash, it'd be so strange to see the Pizzeria stage but with music from FNAF World cause of how much of a mood killer it'd be for a Horror series.
--------------------
Predictions:
Kiryu: 41.16%
--------------------
Noms:
Devolver Digital Rep x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Star Fox on acid

Double zeroes

Five Nights at Freddy's has easily proven itself to be nothing more than a fad. While it did have some impact on the industry, spurring a wave of copycat low budget, low effort, YouTuber jumpscare-bait horror games, that's not precisely a positive impact, so I won't count it in its favor. Quality-wise... Let's just say that, like many popular games of the past decade, it's more entertaining to watch than to play, and as an old-school guy that's the most damning thing I can say about a game. I guess you could theoretically have a moveset making him kinda like a killer robot, iirc there was this other Freddy doll that had like sawblades and ****.

But really, why would Sakurai include him? I dunno if his series made a splash in Japan, it's clearly past its prime, whatever audience it has can probably also be drawn to Smash through other viral games like Minecraft or Fortnite, they're not really games that have any mindspace anymore. Considering we've gotten Mii Costumes like Sans and Cuphead, from the "cool" and "grown-up" indie crowd, I wouldn't even expect to see Freddy pop up.

Noms: Ryo Hazuki x5
Kiryu prediction: Finally, after all these years...
38%

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Chances: 30%. Though I think it's more than likely to be a Mii costume, it's a very notable franchise and easily can have content in Smash. But a ton are pretty notable too. Spirit Event is also possible. It doesn't lack any popularity either.

Want: 100%. I feel it's extremely deserving of content, being a good mainstay Indie series overall. But to be honest, I think any game franchise is worthy of content to begin with. I at best take issue with how it's implemented, not the idea it shouldn't be allowed. I'm not even against non-game franchises, but I respect the developer's decision on that, and I also understand why they're actually impossible(licensing problems).

No predictions or noms, to clarify.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Amaterasu/Monster Hunter pre-Freddy Fazbear

Mii Costume: Quote x135
Reporter & Wrestler x130
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Gex x110
[Rerate] Paper Mario x110
Ryo Hazuki x95
Chun-Li x90
Bubsy x90
Big Daddy (BioShock) x90

100 - 51

Segata Sanshiro x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x75
Decidueye x75
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x73
Gnar (League of Legends) x70
Meowth x69
Falinks x67
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Concept: Darksiders rep x60

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Earthworm Jim x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x33
Terra Branford x33
Concept: DLC music packs x30
[Rerate] Kratos x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x25
Alucard (Castlevania) x25

Under 25

Sirfetch'd x20
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x19
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Zeraora x15
Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game x15
Concept: New Zelda character x15
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x13
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Concept: Level-5 rep x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Ahri (League of Legends) x10
Black Shadow x8
Chell x8
Concept: Returning stages x7
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Otto Matic x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Lora and Jin x5
Concept: Contra rep x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x5
Minato Arisato x5
3 Mage Sisters x2

Mii Costume: Quote wins its tie against Reporter & Wrestler to take the number one spot. Paper Mario and Gex are now neck and neck in fourth place. Ryo Hazuki nabs sixth place, leaving Chun-Li, Bubsy, and newcomer Big Daddy tied for seventh.

Concept: Darksiders rep passes the 50 nom mark.

Alucard flies out of the under 25 club.

Today's new nominees are Minato Arisato and concepts Contra rep and Civilization series stage with music (Standalone). They all have 5 noms.

 

[amageish]

Chance: 2%. I stand by my statement that Indie Games are not off the table for playable characters, but FNAF's lack of regular Japanese localizations makes me think it's effectively off the table. I'd be shocked if Sakurai hasn't played it, as he seemingly plays an insane amount of games (including western ones) and FNAF's impact on the indie horror scene is huge, but I don't see Nintendo of Japan selecting Freddy for inclusion. Heck, Toby Fox had to function as his own translator for discussing the Sans Mii Costume and I don't imagine Scott Cawthon has the skillset to do that...

Want Score: 2%. I've played some FNaF. They make funny games to play with your friends on Halloween. I don't really want him in Smash, but I can't deny that I would be entertained by the resulting fireworks.... If we have to have a character that causes a complete community meltdown, then I'd rather Freddy over Jonesy.

If he does get a Mii Costume, I'd nominate The Colder Stone from Freddy in Space 2 (which is itself a remix of Stone Cold from FNAF World) as the song he comes with.

Nomination: Concept: Level-5 Rep x 5

 

[BowserKing]

Freddy Fazbear

Chance: 10%. The franchise has been on the Nintendo Switch for a few months now, giving the franchise a boost. That and it being an indie rep could help out a bit, giving the bigger representation of Indie games in this game. Competition is a concern, and chances are, if we are getting a robotic bear, it's Monokuma, but that is not impossible however.

Want: 55%. Freddy would be a surprising character, but either way, he would be fun to play as. I think he has potential, including jump scares as a counter for instance. I can see Luigi freaking out, but also Ridley trying to challenge him to prove who is deadlier. Either way, Freddy would be a fun choice, but chances are, he would mostly likely be a mii costume.

Prediction: Kiryu (10%)

Noms: 2 for Echo: Dark Bowser (14E) and 3 for Decidueye

 

[Calamitas]

Welcome to Frederick's Fanatical Fitness Hour. . . wait, wrong Freddy

Chance: 0%
The best that an indie characters has managed to become are Spirits, Assist Trophies and premium Mii costumes. If there's gonna be a playable indie characters, it's going to be one that has had a more lasting popularity, and not a fad that only really lasted a couple of months. I'm sure that the series still has its fanbase, but it has dropped off significantly. And all this isn't even getting into the question as to whether or not the series has any presence in Japan, which I severely doubt.

Want: 0%
No. I respect what the series' creator has managed to accomplish based on taking the criticisms from another failed project to heart, but I have zero interest in the series myself. And I most definitely do not want to see it in Smash.

Predicting Kiryu to get around 19.39%.

Nominating Concept: New Zelda character x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Freddy Fazbear

Chance: 0.5% - Freddy's seen better days. Hugely popular and influential towards the horror genre a few years ago, it's really lost a lot of steam since the third game, especially with the very short development time between games. While it was smart for Mike to strike while the iron was hot, I feel like it caused problems for the series down the road. I can also see moveset being a potential issue. Like other horror characters (such as the Resident Evil Protagonists), Freddy's abilities feel most unique and most interesting (and intimidating for that matter) in his own setting. Take him out of that and you have Freddy jumping around and doing flips. While this sounds hilarious, it isn't true to the character at all, and Sakurai's goal is to make his characters as faithful to the source material as possible. It's why we don't have Heihachi after all.

Nintendo representation isn't an issue. The first three games were released on the Switch back in November, though this comes with its' own caveat of being too late for the second Fighter's Pass.

Then there's the matter of popularity in Japan. Not only is it less popular than other western-made indies like Undertale and Cuphead, but the premise of the series as a whole is pretty much lost on a Japanese audience. The cultural context is missing. What made the Freddy concept so novel is that it played on something we all experienced as kids: animatronic shows at pizza places like Chuck E. Cheese and Showbiz Pizza that scared us. Japan doesn't have these kinds of pizza places, so the cleverness of the idea is lost in export. This translates into popularity, so it's not likely at all that Freddy would be chosen.

Want: 25% - Honestly Freddy would be an absolutely hilarious addition regardless, and I do at least have some positive memories of the first game before things really fell apart. Though I do think that he'd work better as a Sans-style Mii Costume, or a stage based on the Pizzaria instead since Freddy as a stage element could easily play to his strengths and be a more faithful interpretation.


Nominations:
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x5

Predictions:
Kiryu - 30.43%

 

[Cadillac]

Oh no...
chance:30%: I honestly believe Freddy is the most likely indie. All the FNAF games are on Nintendo systems, he's fairly popular, and he has a lot of moveset potential and would represent a genre unrepresented in Smash Bros.
Want:100%: I get that people are going to be mad. But I honestly really like the FNAF games. And Freddy could be a unique character that could have lots of potential. Also FNAF doesn't have bad music, you literally only took from the first three games! Not FNAF World, or sister Location, or Custom Night gives
Look, I would be totally down with Freddy as playable. I'd also be down with him as a mii costume with Don't Go as the music track. I just like these games and also would love horror representation in Smash.
Nominations: Minato Arisato x5

"Most likely indie"
Ok, I don't like to argue with people, but what about the other popular indies?
Quote? The Knight? Or even Reimu? They are quite popular with more moveset potential.

 

[Trevenant]

Simple.

FNAF World.

You have every incarnation of Freddy's moveset from World to pull from.

But that’s a spin off game. If Sakurai were to hypothetically represent Freddy in Smash he wouldn’t go for the FNAF world variant as from what I can gather, that game completely strips all the major horror aspects that makes Freddy of notoriety.

Sakurai designs character in a very specific way which makes sense for the character. In that case Freddy needs to be scary but every potential moveset I’ve seen incorporate aspects of FNAF world just make Freddy look like a plush toy. Mic tossing and pizza throwing? That doesn’t make sense for a character who is known for activating at night in an attempt to murder the night guard. And that’s just the basic stuff.

FNAF World just wouldn’t be a suitable resource to pull from unless Sakurai was being forced by someone to put him In the game as it goes against the way Sakurai designs characters and he really doesn’t have much potential from the original games. Basing Freddy off of FNAF world would be like basing Mario off of Mario Party at least to some extent.

 

[Deleted member]

Chance: 0%
I can't think of anyone Sakurai would Freddy over. Can you?
And like others said, I'm not going to try and to slap together a moveset for him.
Want:0%
I've never played a FNAF game. I don't even know where to get one.

 

[Ninjaed]

Freddy Fazbear

Chance: 0%
Mushroomguy said it all, I don't know what else I could add honestly. I don't see FNAF as a fighter in smash because horror, indie fad, etc. I would have seen it as an AT though. Would definitely fit the bill. Intangible + invisible... a small light or something that creeps up if you turn your back on it... and once close enough, BOO!!! That could be dope for an AT actually.

Want: 0%
Never played it, only saw gameplay footage and... down with jumpscares. Those are a blight against humanity and deserve to burn in hell. The concept of FNAF is decent enough but ugh, jumpscares ruin it for me, even as a mere spectator. Ironically, the "horror" aspect is not even why people liked the games anyway. It was for the lore to dig out... which kinda ended up being a huge mess. Kinda like Kingdom Hearts, really. Don't forget to buy those books to get that crucial info you need!

Predictions: Kiryu Kazuma - 42%

Nominations: Segata Sanshiro x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Freddy Fazbear
Chance: 0%
He's Indie, he's done for. I have 0 faith in the fact that an indy character will get anything better than a super mii costume. Another thing, how would you do the moveset? How do you do jump scares in smash? Sakurai cares about making characters feel as close to their games as possible, and I don't think there's a way to make Freddy feel satisfying for his fans.


Want: 0%
Hard pass from me. There are better horror and indie reps than him.


Predict: Kiryu 7%

Noms: Gnar x5

 

[NintenRob]

Fred the fazbear

Double 0
Look, I don't hate Fnaf as much as others, but I just don't see it happening. Fazbear himself isn't exactly much of a character, not does he do much. And despite being the face of the franchise. He's honestly not that important, or interesting (last I looked that stuff anyway) Springtrap is honestly a much bigger deal to me, being purple guy and all that. I could definitely see a Mii Brawler costume happening, it's honestly a perfect fit. But playable character is just a huge stretch.


Nominate Character who is not the star of their game x5

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Kazuma Kiryu from the Yakuza series.

Predict The Blob from de Blob.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Yakuza mood:

Spoiler: Yakuza Music

 

[Cadillac]

Abstain. I don't know anything about the Yakuza series.

Prediction
The Blob: 2%

Noms
Hornet(Hollow Knight) x5

 

[Perkilator]

Kiryu
Chance: 75%
Definitely one of the more popular pure SEGA characters. We technically do have 3 SEGA characters, but the two after were born in companies that simply affiliated with SEGA. had all games afterward (ports included) funded by Nintendo to the point of technically being a Nintendo character, and was from a company SEGA bought out.

Want: Abstain
Never played Yakuza, so I have no real connection to it. Like all the other games I have no real connection to, I can’t give a fair judgement in the Want category. But I can say that when it comes to representation of SEGA, Kiryu would be a pure SEGA rep.

de Blob: 0%

Noms: Sirfetch’d

 

[jamesster445]

Kazuma Kiryu

Chance: 50%
Want: 20%
Kiryu in Smash? Meh. I'll take it or leave it. Yakuza isnt some legacy series that defined a genre or anything like that. But he'd probably be neat.
Kiryu in Tekken on the other hand... Not only is this something Yakuza fans have wanted for much longer. The Yakuza series crossing over with the Tekken universe is a more natural fit both tonally and aesthetically.

Nominations: Lora and Jin

 

[chocolatejr9]

Kazuma Kiryu

Chance: 50%
Want: 20%
Kiryu in Smash? Meh
Kiryu in Tekken on the other hand...

Nominations: Lora and Jin

Not to sound rude, but I think you'll need more than that. Also, what does Tekken have to do with this?

 

[Ridrool64]

Just like a dragon.

Chance: 50%, what I consider a fitting in between vs. 35% and 65%. because I believe he will get in under a condition. I can't see him getting in while Arle is on the table, mostly because she beats him in legacy and has had more relevant fan demand, in addition to a more "unlike anything else" moveset. However if she's not an option for any reason, this guy is the new SEGA front-runner. He basically meets all the same beats as her, except his western popularity has been around for I'd imagine a longer period of time and he's not nearly as associated with Nintendo, which gives him an edge in having a totally new market to appeal to. However if we're getting him, it's probably as the first character. Maybe I could see fourth, too, but this is definitely a "holy **** they put this character in?" kind of situation, fittingly enough a lot like Joker.

Long story short, this guy has a good shot at being Joker 2.

Want: I'll be generous, and give him 0.5%. At least he's like Snake as a character who looks more realistic/serious than the series actually is. It's better than another Sonic rep. But I think I speak for myself at this point.

Paper Mario x 5. In what world does de Blob stand a ghost of a chance at getting anything? 0.35%.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Kazuma Kiryu

Chance: 30% - Based on what we've seen with Joker, he's more than likely on the table for a potential next SEGA rep, and this time a full-on first party one. Arle is often cited as competition but despite her growing presence, Kiryu may have the edge based on worldwide popularity alone, always being an international series while Arle was Japan-exclusive for most of her run. However, Kiryu also suffers for having no Nintendo representation at all (something even Joker had with the Q games), so despite the new market he would bring in I don't feel like it'd be quite enough for Nintendo.

Gonna abstain on want, though when it comes to a second first party SEGA rep my vote goes to Eggman or AiAi.


Nominations:
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x5

Predictions:
de Blob - 0.28%

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Kiryu
Chance: 10%
Yakuza seems like a series SEGA really wants to push as of late, tho not really on Nintendo however. Only precence that series has on a Nintendo platform is a JP exclusive shoddy port of the first two games on the Wii U which didn't do great from what I've heard. We did get Joker, so I guess it might not be a big deal but on the other hand no Yakuza game got as much praise from the industry as P5 did. When it comes to another SEGA character Puyo Puyo seems like the way bigger franchise, atleast in Japan, so Arle's definitely some stiff competition. I'd personally see Nintendo going for her over Kiryu.

Want: Abstaining, tho Yakuza will be on my radar when I'll get my hands on a ps4.

De Blob: 0.51%
Alucard x5

 

[Sari]

Abstaining completely since I'm not too familiar with the Yakuza series and I'm in a crappy mood to be doing a proper writeup. All I'll say is that I have higher priorities when it comes to additional Sega characters, specifically Arle Nadja and a certain other Sega character who I will be nominating soon once Quote's Mii Costume gets locked into the schedule.

The Blob chance prediction: 1.21%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x5

 

[Ninjaed]

Kiryu Kazuma

Chance: 30%
I'm of the mind that Arle isn't getting in because that interview, etc, blah blah blah. Talking about Kiryu here but had to mention Arle since she's the other strong Sega candidate. Now that that's out of the way, let's talk yakuza.

First, it's the spiritual successor of Shenmue, a game which at the time was a pioneer in several aspects. Picking Kiryu would also be giving tribute to that game as well as to Yu Suzuki (look him up).
Second, Yakuza is pushed forward by Sega quite a bit. Sonic is obviously Sega's flagship, then you have Puyo Puyo and Total War, the Atlus games... and then Yakuza. With both Total War and Puyo Puyo seemingly out of the competition (no Puyo Puyo in fighting games, Total War for obvious reasons) and Atlus getting Joker, next in line is Kiryu.

The other potential candidates would be Akira (Virtua Fighter but he's an AT), Alicia or Selvaria (Valkyria Chronicles), Axel Stone (Streets of Rage), Ryo (Shenmue), Sakura (Sakura Wars)... and Segata Sanshiro (because you must play seriously! Play the Sega Saturn, or he will come and get you!). The likes of Ulala, Vyse, Joe Musashi or AiAi are too obscure nowadays to be seriously considered. As for Phantasy Star (Online 2), Sega was quite content with it staying in Asia until recently so it's virtually unknown elsewhere.

What makes Yakuza stand out compared to those other candidates is the fact that like I said, Sega loves its Yakuza franchise quite a bit. Not just that, Yakuza is a regular at getting excellence awards at the Japan Game Awards, and Yakuza is becoming quite well-known around the world. Kiryu is even sometimes stated to be a Playstation figure/icon. With all that in mind, Sega has plenty of reasons to push Kiryu for Smash - quality games that are waiting for a larger audience to know about them, which Smash will allow them to reach.

Want: 100%
Now to talk about why Kiryu would be a good addition! If Sakurai stays faithful to the original material, Kiryu's taunts would refill his Heat. How awesome would it be to play a character you "have" to taunt with to play optimal? As for the moveset, you'd likely get 3 (or 4) styles, possibly switching mid-combo between them. As for what they do... a picture is worth a thousand words, so here's a video featuring each style individually (6:40 if timestamp failed):

and one where you can see style switching:

Still... please don't give Kiryu a generic counter. Please! Pretty please?

Predictions: The Blob - 0.7%

Nominations: Segata Sanshiro x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Like a Gangster

Chance: 30%
If we get a Sega character I think it's him. Yakuza is a big franchise, but not unattainable big, which fits the profile of last pass very well. Sorry Arle, but I think it's Yakuza, not Puyo Puyo, that Sega's trying to push as a worldwide triple-A franchise. Yakuza's got a long history but it was only recently, with the one-two punch of Kiwami and 0 that it struck gold with Westerners. Since then they've had hit after hit, but Sega clearly wants to keep momentum going. Sure, Puyo Puyo may be an institution at this point, but it is what it is; the second Sega character that got in Smash was Bayonetta and the third was Joker, so Sega likes to prioritize their new hotness and Smash's marketing powers. I think Arle could end up getting in because of history and fan demand, but with those statements regarding Puyo characters fighting I'm not really seeing it.

Want: 90%
Kiryu would be super funny, almost Snake-like levels. This tough guy straight from the crime-ridden streets of Kamurocho suddenly being thrust into the weird and wonderful world of Smash fits Yakuza's humor so well you have no idea. The mechanics lend themselves really well for a cool moveset.

The only thing I'd regret is that he wouldn't come with an Assist Trophy because Majima Everywhere should be a thing in Smash.

Noms: Ryo Hazuki x5
The Blob prediction: 0.5%

The likes of Ulala, Vyse, Joe Musashi or AiAi are too obscure nowadays to be seriously considered. As for Phantasy Star (Online 2), Sega was quite content with it staying in Asia until recently so it's virtually unknown elsewhere.

I wouldn't go so far as to calling AiAi obscure, Monkey Ball recently got a game. I guess Space Channel 5 did as well but that's VR exclusive so I get people not hearing about it.

And you are aware that Phantasy Star got Western releases before the Online games were a thing, right? Even if we restrict ourselves to PSO, a lot of people around the world still knew about it and played it pre-localization from what I gather.

 

[Ninjaed]

I wouldn't go so far as to calling AiAi obscure, Monkey Ball recently got a game. I guess Space Channel 5 did as well but that's VR exclusive so I get people not hearing about it.

And you are aware that Phantasy Star got Western releases before the Online games were a thing, right? Even if we restrict ourselves to PSO, a lot of people around the world still knew about it and played it pre-localization from what I gather.

While it's true Monkey Ball recently got a new release, it's nowhere near as well-known nor acclaimed as Yakuza (despite youtubers like Alpharad making videos on it). It's more of a fad, lacks staying power. And yeah, Ulala got her VR appearance in February but like you said, VR exclusive. That's why I cited them as "too obscure". A bit of an overstatement obviously, but with Smash DLC in mind, they can't be candidates. They'd be more AT, mii costume or base game material, not DLC fighters. I just didn't want to make my wall of text any longer.

And yeah I'm aware Phantasy Star got western releases before that. In fact, I played a few of them myself, but they were fairly niche back then. The general western public isn't really aware of the existence of this franchise, or what's it's about. Though I'm a bit perplexed... you say a lot of people around the world still knew about it and played it? I've no memory of that being a thing. If true, I'll have a few words to eat back.

 

[Deleted member]

Predict: 0%
Idk who Kiryu is and that should tell you what I think. At least Terry and Mai represented an entire console. Maybe he has some popularity in Japan, I wouldn't know and it doesn't affect my opinion.
Want: 0%
As I said, I don't know who he is. I'm not trying to come off as rude or anything, I just don't know this man.
I nominate Alucard? x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Freddy Fazbear pre-Kazuma Kiryu

Mii Costume: Quote x140
Reporter & Wrestler x130
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
[Rerate] Paper Mario x115
Gex x110
Ryo Hazuki x100
Big Daddy (BioShock) x95

100 - 51

Chun-Li x90
Bubsy x90
Segata Sanshiro x85
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x80
Decidueye x78
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Gnar (League of Legends) x75
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x73
Falinks x72
Meowth x69
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Concept: Darksiders rep x60

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Earthworm Jim x50
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Alucard (Castlevania) x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x33
Terra Branford x33
Concept: DLC music packs x30
[Rerate] Kratos x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x27
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Sirfetch'd x25

Under 25

Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game x20
Concept: New Zelda character x20
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x19
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Zeraora x15
Concept: Level-5 rep x15
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x13
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Ahri (League of Legends) x10
Concept: Contra rep x10
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x10
Minato Arisato x10
Black Shadow x8
Chell x8
Concept: Returning stages x7
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Otto Matic x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Lora and Jin x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5
3 Mage Sisters x2

Paper Mario passes Gex and ties with Mii Costume: Hollow Knight for third place. Big Daddy beats Chun-Li and Bubsy out of the top seven.

Sirfetch'd reaches 25 noms.

Today's new challenger is [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep, with 5 noms.

While it's true Monkey Ball recently got a new release, it's nowhere near as well-known nor acclaimed as Yakuza (despite youtubers like Alpharad making videos on it). It's more of a fad, lacks staying power. And yeah, Ulala got her VR appearance in February but like you said, VR exclusive. That's why I cited them as "too obscure". A bit of an overstatement obviously, but with Smash DLC in mind, they can't be candidates. They'd be more AT, mii costume or base game material, not DLC fighters. I just didn't want to make my wall of text any longer.

And yeah I'm aware Phantasy Star got western releases before that. In fact, I played a few of them myself, but they were fairly niche back then. The general western public isn't really aware of the existence of this franchise, or what's it's about. Though I'm a bit perplexed... you say a lot of people around the world still knew about it and played it? I've no memory of that being a thing. If true, I'll have a few words to eat back.

I still wouldn't go so far as to call series like Monkey Ball and Phantasy Star obscure, I 100% agree with you that their Smash chances aren't great but their games are still remembered as Sega classics. At least, among the crowd that still remembers that kind of stuff.

As for PSO, yeah, pretty sure people have been playing that with English patches for a while now. It's amassed a pretty sizeable Western following, which is why the announcement that they're finally localizing it made such a splash.

 

[Jomosensual]

Kazuma Kiryu

Chance 35 - Probably one of the more likely Sega picks for Smash. Not a ton of people are asking for him, but the series is very popular and well known. I think there's a very big Joker esque feel to this character where there's plenty of reasons to think about them in Smash but nobody really is for some reason or another. Under the radar pick for sure.


Want 60 - Seems like a character with good moveset potential and that could be pretty fun to play. For Sega characters there's only really Eggman who I think is close to my level of interest right now.

Predictions
Mr Blob - .31 %

Noms
Big Daddy x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I know nothing about Yakuza.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[Ninjaed]

I still wouldn't go so far as to call series like Monkey Ball and Phantasy Star obscure, I 100% agree with you that their Smash chances aren't great but their games are still remembered as Sega classics. At least, among the crowd that still remembers that kind of stuff.

As for PSO, yeah, pretty sure people have been playing that with English patches for a while now. It's amassed a pretty sizeable Western following, which is why the announcement that they're finally localizing it made such a splash.

Ah I think you misread! I didn't say they're obscure, I said they're TOO obscure. Or in other words, overshadowed by bigger fishes. And I didn't realise for PSO. Guess I'd have to give it a higher score if it ever shows up in the nominations.

 

[3DSNinja]

pls
Chance:50%: He's the Sega frontrunner due to Arle being kinda dead. As well, Yakuza is a pretty big and iconic series and Sega really only has one character (Bayo is moreso a Platinum/Nintendo rep and Joker is all Atlus), which makes him even more likely.
Want:100%: I love the Yakuza games and Kiryu could be a really interesting character. Also he could partially represent Shenmue, as Yakuza is a spiritual successor to that,and Shenmue is an amazing series that deserves recognition.
Nominations: Minato Arisato x5

 

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

... I'm gonna talk about Yakuza now


The Yakuza series, also known as Ryu ga Gotoku (Like A Dragon) in Japan, is an open world beat em’ up crime drama made by SEGA. The Yakuza series is one of SEGA’s flagship titles, raking in 12 million sales since the series debut in 2005. Additionally it has had 8 mainline games, multiple remakes of earlier titles, multiple spin-off series, crossovers, a movie, a radio drama, a stage play, and other various merchandise. It's recieved critical acclaim as well, the series won a perfect score from famitsu with Yakuza 5, and got a near perfect score with Yakuza 6.


While always a strong contender in the east, the Yakuza series has found popularity in west recently with the release of Yakuza 0, a prequel that acted as a new entrance point for many new players. Now the western sales of the series meet the same popularity it has in Japan, so the series is increasingly more well known worldwide.

Yakuza games primarily protagonist is Kazuma Kiryu, known as the legendary “Dragon of Dojima” in the criminal underworld of Japan. Despite his fearsome reputation and his unmatched skill in martial arts, Kiryu follows a strict code of honor and is often only pulled back into the criminal world in order to protect those he cares about.

Much like the Metal Gear series, the Yakuza series touches on mature and series themes, but also enjoys a plethora of humorous and over the top antics. These can be found mostly in the side mission and mini games, which can range anywhere from filming a music video, singing karaoke, hiring an actual chicken as a manager, going to the arcade to play video games, getting harassed by your stalker rival every 5 seconds, playing dress up, going to a disco, or even just answering the phone. A lot of the humor lies in how stoic Kiryu takes every single situation seriously, despite how crazy it can get. Kiryu would be right at home with the wacky nature of Smash.

Even the combat of the game has an element of brutal but humorous slapstick to it. Taking a lot inspiration from martial arts movies, Kiryu will finish off opponents in over the top and unorthodox ways, dishing out brutal beat downs and often using improvised weapons. Such as smashing people over the head with a bicycle. While the finishers can be humorous, Yakuza doesn’t stray away from being serious when it needs to be, such as with the boss battles which can be real hype especially with the series top notch music.

Kiryu already has more than enough moves he could use when adapted into Smash Bros. Potential unique gameplay mechanics for Kiryu is that he could switch between fighting styles that change up some of his moves and attributes like they does in some of his games. Such as the balanced Brawler style, the quick attack but weak grabbing Rush style, and the super armored b heat meter is a gauge that increases based on how much damage Kiryu does and depletes if he takes damage, getting enough meter might him to use a powerful heat action attacks. Lastly a lot of Yakuza combat revolves around you picking up common items and using them as improvised weapons, so having some sort of mechanics revolving around items would be very fitting. Either being able to summon his own items like Peach or Diddy Kong, or maybe having Increased power when using melee items in a certain fighting style. Either way one of his Smash attacks needs to be a bicycle smash.

I feel that Kiryu has a pretty similar situation as Joker did. He’s a popular SEGA owned series more associated with Sony but still has appearances on Nintendo consoles that recently got big in the west while having a Japanese focused setting and a protagonist that is a criminal with a heart of gold. I’d say Kiryu has the added benefit of also being reoccurring and a legacy. If Nintendo doesn’t mind going to SEGA again for this pass, I see Kiryu having a decent chance. He also has had multiple appearances on Nintendo consoles and even crossed over with Nintendo characters before.

- - - - -
TL;DR

45% chance for Kiryu


85% Want for Kiryu

me if Kiryu gets in

 

[BowserKing]

Kazuma Kiryu (Not the Godzilla Kaiju)

Chance: 10%. He is a common requested character, and so far there have been no disconfirmations so far. He is also Sega owned, and while we technically have 3 fighters, there could be room for a fourth, since Sega has been with smash since Brawl. Competition is a concern, but then again, I have seen stranger fighters get in. That is all I going to say about that.

Want: 50%. I think he could be fun to play as, and who knows, his moves could be deadly yet fun. I could also see him fighting off certain fighters that are villains or at the very least criminals, with Joker as an ally. Overall, he could be fun, but I don't know too much about him, so I think I will stop it right here.

Prediction: Mr.Blob: 10%

Noms: 2 for Echo: Lord Fredrick (67E) and 3 for Concept: Second F-Zero Rep

 

[3DSNinja]

By the way, I will do an essay analyzing Persona 3 if we get another Sega character.