Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

If I pull that off would you die?
Chance: 0.01%
Everything that was taken as a hint during base game speculation didn't matter after we learned he'd still be an Assist Trophy. Despite having some notable popularity in the Smash bubble, Skull Kid's still a more niche pick heavily affiliated with some specific game that released quite some time ago, remake included. Said game also aIready having a stage, and could be considered as represented well enough. Don't see Nintendo going for a character like this. Likeliest Zelda character we could get at this point is a botw2 character and even that I consider iffy.

Want: 25%
I haven't played Majora's Mask but I guess he'd be fine. Would probably be my pick for a new Zelda necomer as I do agree it is deserving of another one. He's kinda like Geno but not as irrelevant, not owned by a third-party and not competing with characters considered higher priority.

Mid-tier
Chance: 0.01%
Faces the same problems Skull Kid does. Assist Trophy, her game is already represented, a promotinal pick being likelier, etc. Unless there's a TP port in the works that will be revealed in the Nintendo Direct they just refuse to show and they somehow decide to promote her of all characters, I consider her ship having sailed. (or her wolf having ran kekekek)

Want: 1%
I've played like 10 minutes of TP on the Wii years ago and never went back despite still owning it. Has more to do with the hardware than the software really. Regardless, I'm not interested in Midna. I'm not a huge Zelda geek but Skull Kid still the more appealing choice to me. Admittedly there are Nintendo characters I'd still chose over both.

Rillaboom: 16.34%
Cinderace: 14.85%
Intelleon: 6.59%
Reporter & Wrestler x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

I'm gonna talk about these two at the same time since they are in a very similar situation.

Chances:
Skull Kid - 8%
Midna - 2%

Legend of Zelda has not been lucky when it comes to newcomers. We have not had a new character since Brawl (or a unique character since Melee). When it comes to Skull Kid, he is probably the most requested LoZ character and even he has not gotten in yet. It really does feel like Sakurai doesn't want to include any characters outside of the main 3 characters (besides Sheik who is Zelda anyways). The fact that his assist trophy was quietly announced on the website doesn't help his chances either. Neither the fact that his requests fluctuates and he's barely within the top 5 most requested first party characters, maybe not even (This is just an educated estimate, I have no hard evidence to back this up). What I'm saying is that I'm confident in him not being a priority when it comes to assist trophy upgrades. Other characters like Rex, Waluigi, and Isaac just have louder fanbases and other reasons for priority like popularity in general and being a potential shill pick.

All of this also applies to Midna, though she is not requested as much as Skull Kid. I don't know what is up with LoZ representation, but it seems like side characters don't have much of a chance due to being mostly from just one game. Besides, even if we do get another LoZ rep, it probably would be from BOTW 2 as a shill pick.

Want:
Skull Kid - 65%
Midna - 25%

I really do want another LoZ character because god dam it the series deserves it. Skull Kid is cool and would bring content from Majora's Mask which is a creepy and atmospheric game (which is up my alley as a horror fan). His design is unique and I'm curious to see what kind of moveset he would have.

As for Midna, she just doesn't interest me. I would rather have Skull Kid. If she rides on Wolf Link then that boosts my want up as that would be really cool and has so much moveset potential. Otherwise, I would have to see her moveset to really appreciate her.

Predictions:
Rillaboom - 25%
Cinderace - 12%
Intelleon - 5%

Noms: Crypto x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain on both. I don't know anything about either of them.

Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5

 

[Ninjaed]

Skull Kid

Chance: 0%
He's an AT and not even first in line in the Zelda franchise to get in. He's a character a number of fans like but isn't suited to be a full-fledged figher in Smash I find. The Majora Mask-wearing kid is not happening in Smash... Ultimate, at least.

Want: 0%
I don't really see the appeal in this character. I've never liked him much, but the Majora Mask is nice in how pretty creepy it is. Still, I wouldn't want to play it nor Skull Kid in Smash. I mean, there's so much better to be had with Majora's Mask. You could have a mask-wearing Link with different attacks/properties on his attacks depending on the mask he's wearing for instance. That's already a concept I'd be so much more down with.

Midna

Chance: 0%
Same as Skull Kid, she's an AT and not first in line. Both her imp + wolf and adult form show tons of promise but sadly her game isn't getting any younger. She missed the train and we now have Lana, Linkle or a BotW2 character to consider among others - if we even get a Zelda character as DLC in the first place. There are 6 of them + quite a few items for that series already after all.

Want: 80%
Like I said, you can make such nice concepts with either form or even both merged into a single moveset. I'd definitely love to play as her and it helps that she was so great in her game. Imp Midna plays a bit weird in HW but that doesn't take away from how enjoyable it is to smack enemies around with her massive hand hair while zooming about.

Predictions:
Intelleon - 2%
Cinderace - 3%
Rillaboom - 21%

Nominations: Segata Sanshiro x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Elma/Rex pre-Skull Kid/Midna

Freddy Fazbear x265
Kazuma Kiryu x220
The Blob (De Blob) x190
Crypto x185
Carmen Sandiego x175
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x165
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x160

150 - 101

Reporter & Wrestler x125
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Gex x110

100 - 51

Ring Fit Adventurer x90
Big Daddy (BioShock) x85
Chun-Li x85
Mii Costume: Quote x85
Ryo Hazuki x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x75
[Rerate] Paper Mario x75
Decidueye x71
Meowth x69
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x68
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Bubsy x65
Segata Sanshiro x60

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Earthworm Jim x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Concept: Darksiders rep x45
Falinks x37
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Gnar (League of Legends) x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x31
Concept: DLC music packs x30
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
[Rerate] Kratos x25
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25

Under 25

Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x23
Terra Branford x23
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x19
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Zeraora x15
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Concept: Level-5 rep x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x10
Black Shadow x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Sirfetch'd x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Ahri (League of Legends) x5
Otto Matic x5
Concept: New Zelda character x5
Gran/Djeeta x5
Chell x3
Magolor x3
Concept: Returning stages x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
3 Mage Sisters x2

Today's new challengers are Gran/Djeeta, with 5 noms, and Concept: Returning stages, with 3 noms.

 

[Iko MattOrr]

Today's new concept is Returning stages, with 3 noms.

so I'm late I guess... well.

Spoiler: post

Skull Kid
Chance: 0%
I strongly believe that assist trophies are not going to be promoted in the same game. Skull Kid is an assist trophy, so if we want to have a chance to see him playable, I'm pretty sure we have to wait for the next game.

Want: 40%
Majora's Mask is my favorite Zelda game, though I don't see much moveset potential in Skull Kid. I'd prefer Majora's Mask to be represented through a decloned Young Link who uses masks and ocarina songs as specials (song of storm to cast thunders and rain, song of healing to dispell enemies from power-ups and charged moves while slighty healing them a bit as a side effect, song of time to mess with time maybe in a similar way as Bayonetta, etc.). I'm not against the idea of Skull Kid though, I just can't think of a good moveset for him.

Midna
Chance: 0%
"I strongly believe that assist trophies are not going to be promoted in the same game. Skull Kid is an assist trophy, so if we want to have a chance to see him playable, I'm pretty sure we have to wait for the next game." Yes, the same thing... I don't have anything else to say on this subject. If copying the sentences doesn't count, then take it as an abstain.

Want: 60%
Twiliight Princess is one of my least favorite Zelda games. Regardless, Midna grew on me a lot through the years... she has an unique style and identity, she stands out from all the other Zelda characters, I would even say Nintendo characters overall.
So, I wouldn't mind Midna in Smash, though I prefer if she's in with Wolf Link, or at least a random wolf. Midna riding a wolf is her most iconic iteration.
Though there are Zelda characters who I want more, such as Ganon in his classic form.

 

[BowserKing]

Skull Kid

Chance: 15%. He is very popular, and his main game is well received. He being a villain also helps with the cause. While he is an assist trophy and a few spirits, he might have a chance to appear in this game. Competition would be an issue, but he has powers unique enough for him to get a chance of appearing in this game, if not then the sequel.

Want: 99%. He has lots of potential ideas for a moveset, and he would totally be fun to play as. Who knows, he could use the moon as a final smash, giving yet another assist a promotion. I can also see Link and Ganondorf put aside their differences and team up against him. Skull Kid would be a fun character and that what matters.

Midna

Chance: 15%. She is another popular request, in a game that is well loved. While she is an assist and two spirits, interestingly enough, her true form is absent, most likely due to censorship issues. Her Imp form would be the most likely form who will get in however, and even then, competition would still be a challenge to her, but she could pull it off.

Want: 100%. She is my most wanted character from the Legend of Zelda franchise, and I think she would totally be fun to play as. A character using her hair as attacks, we need some of those. I can also see her partnering with Wolf. Also we got a Twilight Princess rep once again, after the reps for that game went from 3 to 0 in an instant. Midna is a great choice for the next Legend of Zelda Rep.

Predictions: Inteleon, Cinderace and Rillaboom (25%)

Noms: 3 for Returning Stages, 3 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion, 2 for Decidueye and 2 for Falinks

 

[warpenguin55]

I want to nominate who I want, but even if she gets to be rated I'm the only one who voted for her and everybody else will just rate her chance 0% because she's an indie.

Vote her up anyway. If it's Hornet (assumption based on pic in the signature), there's actually a case for her to not be a super costume imo. Not going much further than that since it's not her day.

 

[Jomosensual]

Skull Kid

Chance 0 - AT that's not Issac, Shadow, or Waluigi, so the chance of him being playable isn't great. His AT wasnt even featured in the direct and was silently added to the website, so I feel like that shows how interested they are in making him playable, which is very little.

Want 40 - Could be a fun concept. Not a big LOZ player but Skull Kid is a really important part of the franchise he'd have a different moveset at least. Also his AT is very annoying so seeing it less wouldn't hurt my feelings. Lastley, it would be nice to get a LOZ character that isnt a Link or Zelda in the game too


Midna
Chance 0 - An AT that isn't Isaac,Shadow, or Waluigi again and this time she's also not the most requested character from her own series to be an AT upgrade. Not a good combo there. It appears there's some moveset potential but way too much above her to work around.

Want 20 - Don't really know that much about her. Like I said above, she had some moveset potential it appears which is good. I know less about her than I do Skull Kid so I'd rather have him

Predictions
Rillaboom 14%
Cinderace 17%
Intellion 8%

Noms:
Falinks x5

 

[I.D.]

DaybreakHorizon You have to either choose one character to nominate or distribute your 5 noms between the two. (Unless Gran and Djeeta are the same character, in which case I apologize. I'm not familiar at all with Granblue)

Djeeta is just the female version of Gran, the avatar character.

 

[Calamitas]

I have no joke for this, so I'll just let you know that in the German version, they're called "Horror Kid"

Chance: 10%
This is simple. We haven't had a proper Zelda newcomer since Melee, and I don't see this changing with DLC. Skull Kid has a minor chance for the sheer fan support he got during the pre-release time of Ultimate, but I don't really see it being enough to get him to playable.

Want: 65%
Even though Majora's Mask is my favourite Zelda game, and one of my favourites games of all time, I don't really see the potential they'd have as a Smash fighter, even with me playing them a bunch in Hyrule Warriors. Nonetheless, a proper Zelda newcomer is long overdue, and I'd still be up for Skull Kid if they were to make it in.

We've had Twilight Princess Zelda for two Smash games, yet we can't get the Twilight Princess from Zelda Twilight Princess

Chance: 3%
Midna is a very popular character, to the point that she was the first character who originated from one game in particular revealed for Hyrule Warriors. However, I've never really seen this popularity extend to Smash or Smash speculation, which in my eyes really hurts her chances. Personally, I feel that Midna's best shot would've been base roster. . . in Brawl. I firmly believe that if Sakurai had the same mindset for the Brawl roster that he has now, she'd be in since that game. But in this day and age, I don't think she has much of a chance.

Want: 100%
Twilight Princess was my first Zelda game, and Midna in particular is probably one of my favourite characters in the entire series. Regardless of whether they'd go with imp Midna by herself like in HW, purely Twili Midna, also like in HW, or with a combination of Wolk Link and Midna, I'd absolutely want her.

Predictions:
Intelleon - 6.23%
Cinderace - 16.83%
Rillaboom - 19.62%

Nominating Any Octopath Traveler rep x10.

 

[GoodGrief741]

not even first in line in the Zelda franchise to get in.

Who would you say is?

 

[NintenRob]

Hoo boy

Skull Kid
Chance 9%
Skull Kid is tricky. Of all the characters not to be playable, he probably has the most representation of any character.

He has:
An assist trophy
A Mii costume
Another assist trophy that is thematically tied to directly to him
Said assist trophy appearing in the background of a stage
An Ace spirit that evolves into a legend spirit
An icon
Another Mii hat tied directly to him
Mii Costume actually shows up in the main menu when hovering over vault


All this tells me Skull Kid is in their radar no doubt, I think when we do get a Zelda newcomer, it's going to be him. This is more than anyone else by a large margin. I'm almost convinced he actually was almost planned to playable. But it feels like that time has passed and many fans have moved on. I don't have that much hope for assist trophies being upgraded. But if they do, I do think he'll be among the first alongside Isaac and Waluigi.

Want 1000% (or just 100% whatever)
My most wanted, I was the guy who was vocal about him well before Loz18 or that stupid chair theory or the Moon assist trophy showed their faces. I was there for whole rollercoaster during pre release. I almost miss it, not the dumb fan theories. But it was nice seeing someone I like get surrounded by so much love. Majora's Mask is my favourite game. It bothers me a little how its little lacking in content compared to the other 3D Zelda games. Especially music. It breaks my heart that all we have is a remix of the series main theme, and remix of that remix. Give me Clock Town, give me Song of Healing, Give me Stone Tower, Give me Deku Palace. Just put in the entire soundtrack in and I'll be satisfied.


........
......

Oh yeah Midna

Chance 1%
She's certainly popular, but as said above, if we get a Zelda newcomer (especially one who's an assist trophy) it's gonna be Skull Kid. Perfect world we get both masked imps. But I genuinely think Skull Kid just has the better chance

Want 20%
A little low, but I'll be honest, if she got in before Skull Kid, I'd be a little but hurt. Doesn't help that I don't like Wolf Link. Perfect world, we get both. I think both should be playable. But if just one, I one thousand times prefer Skull Kid.


Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5

Prediction
Just got 12% for all 3

 

[Cadillac]

Do it anyways. Most of the characters I nom get 0s but I want to see them on here because they're still big names or I just want them to get rated.

I remember when I nominated Kyle Hyde for months. I was pleasantly surprised with how many people were down with the idea, even if just a little bit. You should go for it.

Vote her up anyway. If it's Hornet (assumption based on pic in the signature), there's actually a case for her to not be a super costume imo. Not going much further than that since it's not her day.

Thanks. I got some confidence.
Now, onto chances:

Skull Kid
Chance: 8%
All ATs have a chance now, and he's popular. However I'm not sure if his demand was as strong as Isaac or Waluigi. You know Waluigi, and apparently NoA got hate calls over Isaac. If an AT is promoted, I think it's gonna be one of these 2. Still, he's a popular character and we never got a new LoZ newcomer since Melee, so Sakurai might consider him for a new LoZ villain.

Want: 60%
Not my most wanted, but pretty cool. We could really use some new LoZ character right now, and although I prefer Ghirahim for a Zelda rep, Skull Kid is a good pick.

Midna
Chance: 3%
Like I said with Skull Kid, the two most popular ATs are immensely popular. Not sure if Midna is the same level as them.

Want: 50%
Neutral. She's an important character, and she might bring something cool even if she's alone, or with Wolf Link. But I'm not really enthusiastic about her.

Prediction:
Cinderace: 0.5%
Inteleon: 0.5%
Rillaboom: 0.5

Noms: Hornet(Hollow Knight)x 10

 

[Brindor]

Skull Kid:
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%
Assist trophies are a hard deconfirm. I have no experience with Skull Kid so I'm not actively rooting for him or want him.

Midna:
Chance 0%
Want 50%
Same as above. I like sassy lil' Midna but again I don't think there's any getting around being deconfirmed for her. That and I'm sure she's falling out of favor for new Zelda characters like Linkle or from BOTW.

nominating Cooking Mama x5

 

[Ninjaed]

Who would you say is?

Hard to say really. You have Impa who is one of the few recurring characters and has seen positive feedback with her moveset and overall design in HW. There's also Linkle who fights completely differently from Link, and I could definitely see her getting in if they have plans for her in the future. Mask Link would be another great creative asset, allowing Sakurai to represent the Zora etc in Smash. Another version of Ganondorf (e.g. Toon) could also be interesting. For instance, HW Ganondorf dual wields swords whilst using dark magic. Or it could be BotW2 Ganondorf (or BotW2 someone). Lana could be another candidate if they're planning on making a HW2 in the future (I doubt she wouldn't appear in the sequel). I'm sure I'm forgetting more. Like the Great Fairy... err... nah let's forget about her and her creepy face. Brr.

At any rate, from any perspective (financial, popularity, fan request, relevance, moveset potential, unique and fresh addition to smash, ...), I fail to see how Skull Kid would be able to score first when Zelda has so much more to offer. Midna less so but she's still not in a good position, sadly. With already 6 reps, any addition has to be carefully thought out... but I think Sakurai's mindset with them in Smash is to slightly update their moveset and appearance over time. They're AFAIK the only ones receiving that treatment.

Skull Kid:
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Midna:
Chance 0%
Want 30%

nominating Cooking Mama x5

You'll probably want to have at least 2 sentences to explain your scores if you don't want them to be ignored

 

[Cadillac]

Hard to say really. You have Impa who is one of the few recurring characters and has seen positive feedback with HW. There's also Linkle which fights completely differently from Link, and I could definitely see her getting in if they have plans for her in the future. Mask Link would be another great creative asset, allowing Sakurai to represent the Zora etc in Smash. Another version of Ganondorf (e.g. Toon) could also be interesting. For instance, HW Ganondorf dual wields swords whilst using dark magic. Or it could be BotW2 Ganondorf (or BotW2 someone). Lana could be another candidate if they're planning on making a HW2 in the future (I doubt she wouldn't appear in the sequel). I'm sure I'm forgetting more. Like the Great Fairy... err... nah let's forget about her and her creepy face. Brr.

At any rate, from any perspective (financial, popularity, fan request, relevance, moveset potential, unique and fresh addition to smash, ...), I fail to see how Skull Kid would be able to score first when Zelda has so much more to offer. Midna less so but she's still not in a good position, sadly. With already 6 reps, any addition has to be carefully thought out... but I think Sakurai's mindset with them in Smash is to slightly update their moveset and appearance over time. They're AFAIK the only ones receiving that treatment.



You'll probably want to have at least 2 sentences to explain your scores if you don't want them to be ignored

Why don't we give the mask switching ability to Skull Kid?

 

[Perkilator]

Skull Kid from the Wild West vs. The princess whose game was represented for two whole games yet she was only an Assist Trophy
Chance for each: 0%
Like I said for Waluigi and Isaac, Assist Trophies are essentially a deconfirm. Plus, why go through the trouble of animating them as an Assist Trophy and then throwing that time away by making them fighters?

Want for each: Abstain
Skull Kid I like as a character, but I not particularly attached to him. Same for Midna.

Rillaboom: 33.3%
Cinderace: 33.4% (Yes, I am biased towards the Scorbunny line)
Intelleon: 33.3%

Noms: Ring Fit Adventurer x5

 

[Guynamednelson]

Plus, why go through the trouble of animating them as an Assist Trophy and then throwing that time away by making them fighters?

Again, these ATs are recycled from Smash 4, so you're saying that they wasted hard work by promoting Dark Samus and Isabelle in this game.

 

[Perkilator]

Again, these ATs are recycled from Smash 4, so you're saying that they wasted hard work by promoting Dark Samus and Isabelle in this game.

Dark Samus and Isabelle were promoted AFTER the game where they were Assist Trophies. What I meant was promoting Skull Kid and Midna in the SAME game where they're Assist Trophies.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Dark Samus and Isabelle were promoted AFTER the game where they were Assist Trophies. What I meant was promoting Skull Kid and Midna in the SAME game where they're Assist Trophies.

Still, they're copy-pasted from Smash 4. Not a lot of Ultimate-specific work being thrown away there.

 

[RouffWestie]

Skull Kid
Chance: 0%
His popularity was enough to get an assist in Smash 4. Thanks to Majora's Mask Rehydrated, he seems to have retained that popularity, since he returned as an assist. Nintendo is likely content with this and doesn't think there would be reason to add him as a DLC fighter.
Want: 76%
He's a solid choice since he's a highly requested newcomer from a franchise that doesn't have much variety in it's roster representation. I would be more excited for other Zelda characters, but to finally see him make it in would be a pleasant surprise. He seemed like a character that should have been in the base game with how much demand there was for a Zelda newcomer and him in particular.
Midna
Chance: 0%
Another popular Zelda character that was demanded enough to get an assist in Smash 4. Twilight Princess Remastered kept her relevant and she was able to return as an assist. Unfortunately, I don't think appearing in a recent game will be enough to convince Nintendo to add a fighter as DLC. The only exception I think is Pokemon, FE, and Mario, since those are their biggest franchises.
Want: 40%
Make it Midna and Wolf Link pair and I'd give it a clean 100. I really enjoy the concept of duo fighters. Wolf Link and Midna is a unique pair and seeing how they'd work in Smash would be great. I'd rather not see either of them get in on their own. Traveling as the two in the Twilight Realm was a pretty memorable part of the game, I'd want them to stay faithful to that if they ever by some miracle decided to give Zelda a newcomer.

 

[amageish]

As I've been saying lately, I do not think that base-game content directly deconfirms anyone, so that'll effect my ratings.

Skull Kid: 10%
I feel like Skull Kid could be added anytime and doesn't need a traditional "promotional" reason to be added. That said, we also already have a Majora's Mask stage, a decent amount of music, and some spirits. We certainly could add some more content on both fronts, but it would likely feel a bit forced. The other option could be putting Skull Kid in with Hyrule Warriors content, which could make sense as I imagine a hypothetical Skull Kid moveset would be Warriors-influenced, though obviously adding Lana/Linkle/etc would make more sense for repping HW.

Want Score: Abstain. I haven't actually played Majora's Mask? I know that's a cardinal sin amongst Nintendo fans, but 3D Zelda games just never seem to click with me for whatever reason. He's fun in Hyrule Warriors, but that's all I can say.

Midna: 10%
Like Skull Kid, I could see her happening at any time. I'm rating her the same as Skull Kid as I haven't seen much evidence to suggest that he was significantly more popular before the LoZ18 "leak" and speculation surrounding the moon assist trophy. I imagine that the Smash ballot is still their main way of looking at what has had fan demand. She would also have the problem with stage/music/spirits, with similar potential solutions.

Want Score: Abstain. I have played the tiniest amount of Twilight Princess, but am still not hugely into 3D Zeldas. I enjoy her sassy attitude for sure though.

 

[Cadillac]

Skull Kid
Chance: 0%
His popularity was enough to get an assist in Smash 4. Thanks to Majora's Mask Rehydrated, he seems to have retained that popularity, since he returned as an assist. Nintendo is likely content with this and doesn't think there would be reason to add him as a DLC fighter.
Want: 76%
He's a solid choice since he's a highly requested newcomer from a franchise that doesn't have much variety in it's roster representation. I would be more excited for other Zelda characters, but to finally see him make it in would be a pleasant surprise. He seemed like a character that should have been in the base game with how much demand there was for a Zelda newcomer and him in particular.
Midna
Chance: 0%
Another popular Zelda character that was demanded enough to get an assist in Smash 4. Twilight Princess Remastered kept her relevant and she was able to return as an assist. Unfortunately, I don't think appearing in a recent game will be enough to convince Nintendo to add a fighter as DLC. The only exception I think is Pokemon, FE, and Mario, since those are their biggest franchises.
Want: 40%
Make it Midna and Wolf Link pair and I'd give it a clean 100. I really enjoy the concept of duo fighters. Wolf Link and Midna is a unique pair and seeing how they'd work in Smash would be great. I'd rather not see either of them get in on their own. Traveling as the two in the Twilight Realm was a pretty memorable part of the game, I'd want them to stay faithful to that if they ever by some miracle decided to give Zelda a newcomer.

Isn't LoZ bigger than FE?

 

[Ridrool64]

Mr. Mask

Chance: 0.5%. Yeah this was a character who had everything to lose by being Assist'd. However, I believe he has the potential to be a next-game frontrunner if he can regain his pre-release momentum. However for now, I do believe his support being drained massively when he wasn't a frontrunner anymore will spell the end of him.

Want: Eh... 50%. I get it, I think Skull Kid could have an interesting moveset and I've seen a lot of support for the character. But for what it's worth, while Xenoblade has been the least lucky for Ultimate in particular, I think Zelda has had it way worse for longer. So I can't say I'd whine about a Zelda character for Zelda's sake, especially a non-Triforce one.

Got whacked on day 1 of assist trophies

Chance: Assuming we don't suddenly get a Twilight Princess follow up, 0.1%. This the character who never really had half of the push Skull Kid had. I'd be very surprised if she showed up, ever, not only because she's swamped in competition but because her relevance is over and because her support has been very quiet for the bulk of Smash speculation.

Want: 45%. I like Twilight Princess, but Midna wasn't really why. It's mostly Link that draws me in, due to the wolf mechanics. People do suggest them together, but overall I can't say I care about Midna as much. But otherwise, same deal as Skull Kid; don't individually care, but I'd be okay with a Zelda character, especially one that isn't half-assed like "Link but tiny" and "Captain Ganon".

Paper Mario x 5. Cinderace & Rillaboom are gonna fight for the likeliest, but that Spirit event will be considered a convenient poison to those who don't want them: 16.29% for both. Inteleon never had the push those two have, so 4.20%.

 

[AceAttorney9000]

• Skull Kid
  • Chance - 30%
    • There's two big obstacles I see working against Skull Kid, and basically all the other Zelda Assist Trophies. For one, if Assist Trophy promotions end up happening (which, assuming Nintendo isn't deaf and actually cares about fan demand, I think is more likely than people give it credit for), there's already some stiff competition with characters like Waluigi, Isaac, Shadow, Krystal, and Spring Man, all of whom at least have a decent chance. Another thing, there's also the chance that, for an additional Zelda character, we instead get a promotional character from Breath of the Wild 2... and while we know nothing about that game right now, considering Byleth was chosen before their own game was even released, I'm not discounting the possibility. Still, the character does have some decent fan demand in their favor, and in the event that the Ocarina of Time and Majora's Mask 3DS remasters get ported to Switch, Skull Kids could be used an unlikely promotional pick. Overall Skull Kid is possible, but he's gonna have to overcome some serious odds to become playable.
  • Want - 60%
    • While he's not my first choice for another Zelda character in Smash (that would go to either Impa or Lana, both specifically from Hyrule Warriors), it would be neat to see how his fighting style translates over. Plus, he's a memorable, fan favorite villain whose inclusion would make plenty of people happy.
• Midna
  • Chance - 40%
    • Everything I said above in regards to Skull Kid also applies to Mida. Has to compete with other Assist Trophies and a potential Breath of the Wild 2 pick, decent fan demand, could be a promotional pick for Twilight Princess HD Switch port... however, I'm giving her a higher chance score because there's potentially one loophole that could work in her favor: Twili Midna. If her Imp form being an Assist Trophy is somehow too much trouble (which, again, I don't think it is), I could easily see Midna in her Twili form becoming playable instead, either as a unique character, or possibly as a loose Echo Fighter of Zelda (hey, if Chrom and Dark Samus could work as Echo Fighters of Roy and Samus...) I don't know how fans would react to that (I'm assuming most want her playable in her Imp form), but her Twili form would be a way to get the character playable in some fasion.
  • Want - 60%
    • Again, not my first choice for another Zelda character, but would still be neat to see, especially if her Imp form gets in with Wolf Link. If we're getting additional Echo Fighters through DLC, I also think Twili Midna as a Zelda Echo would be a good choice, specifically as a Chrom/Ken-style Echo Fighter that's more different from their base character than usual.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Skull Kid

Chance: 5%
He's an Assist Trophy and a Mii Costume, and Majora's Mask 3D is already 6 years old, so there goes any chance of promotional additions. I'd also except Waluigi to be the AT to be promoted if there are any, and Isaac to be the 2nd. His odds don't look good.

Want: 40%
There are other Zelda reps I'd like before him, mainly Impa and Midna, but I'd take him in a heartbeat over another Link. Majora's Mask is one of my favorite games and all but I'm not that attached to him in terms of Smash personally due to his relatively little screen time in the game compared to the other characters I listed (and his smaller role in Hyrule Warriors). In a perfect world we'd get all three (and Tetra). Looking at my tier list of Zelda newcomers, I guess he'd be my most wanted unique villain Zelda newcomer.

Midna

Chance: 5%
Same as Skull Kid, she probably wouldn't be the first AT chosen and the odds of multiple ATs being promoted are low. Twilight Princess HD is also several years off, so not that much better in the promotional camp.

Want: 100%
I liked her in Hyrule Warriors and her fighting style seems interesting. She's probably my favorite of the one offs due to her sassy personality.

Nom: Terra Branford x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Skull Kid

Chance: 0.01%

Assist Trophy, Mii Costume, and Spirit. Skull Kid is deader than dead already. And he barely has a connection to BoTW2 to promote it.

Want: 50%

Mainly because I do feel Zelda needs another newcomer. But I feel it'd be better for that newcomer to be in the base game instead.

Midna

Chance: 0.01%

Assist Trophy and Spirit(one that can be enhanced as well) already. And it was stated she would never appear in another mainline Zelda game for quite a while at least.

Want: 50%

Again I think Zelda should have another newcomer. But she like Skull kid feel more like Base game characters rather than DLC.

Gen VIII Final Starter Evolution prediction: 9.88%

Nominate Darksiders Rep x5

 

[3DSNinja]

MY BOI
Chance:10%: IMO one of the likelier AT's. Majora's Mask is a fan favorite and he would represent that. As well, he's popular and his AT was a direct port, meaning that it wouldn't be wasting much work.
Want:100%: Majora's Mask is my favorite Zelda, so hell yeah! Also Skull Kid could be a super unique character because we don't have any trickster characters to my knowledge.

Twilight Zelda
Chance: 5%: She isn't anywhere near as popular as Skull Kid. Howver Twilight Princess could get a port of HD which she could promote.
Want:90%: Skull Kid would be preferable, but at this point I would take ANY Zelda newcomer. And Twilight Princess is an awesome game, so I'd be down with more representation for it.

Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Hard to say really. You have Impa who is one of the few recurring characters and has seen positive feedback with her moveset and overall design in HW. There's also Linkle who fights completely differently from Link, and I could definitely see her getting in if they have plans for her in the future. Mask Link would be another great creative asset, allowing Sakurai to represent the Zora etc in Smash. Another version of Ganondorf (e.g. Toon) could also be interesting. For instance, HW Ganondorf dual wields swords whilst using dark magic. Or it could be BotW2 Ganondorf (or BotW2 someone). Lana could be another candidate if they're planning on making a HW2 in the future (I doubt she wouldn't appear in the sequel). I'm sure I'm forgetting more. Like the Great Fairy... err... nah let's forget about her and her creepy face. Brr.

At any rate, from any perspective (financial, popularity, fan request, relevance, moveset potential, unique and fresh addition to smash, ...), I fail to see how Skull Kid would be able to score first when Zelda has so much more to offer. Midna less so but she's still not in a good position, sadly. With already 6 reps, any addition has to be carefully thought out... but I think Sakurai's mindset with them in Smash is to slightly update their moveset and appearance over time. They're AFAIK the only ones receiving that treatment.



You'll probably want to have at least 2 sentences to explain your scores if you don't want them to be ignored

So you think that Linkle, Mask Link, Toon Ganon, HW Ganon, BotW2 Ganon, and Lana are likelier than Skull Kid?

...Yeah, let's just say I disagree.

 

[Calamitas]

Twilight Zelda
She isn't anywhere near as popular as Skull Kid.

Unless you're talking about popularity with the Smash fanbase in particular, I have absolutely no idea where you're even getting this from.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Skull Kid:

Chance: 0% - I'm pretty certain he's done for, he had a chance in the base game (just based off the fact that he had a recent remake and was seemingly missing, the chair conspiracy was... wack to say the least), but at this point in time I don't see him having anything particular going for him. He might be back in contention for future games, I'm at least certain that if we ever get an older one-off Zelda character it'll be him (granted he's technically not a one-off), but for Ultimate's DLC there's nothing that lines up for him.

Want: 100% - Which is a shame because he'd be as great of an addition as they could possibly make at this point. He's iconic, has a ton of personality, and could be our first proper dark magic user. Majora's Mask is also my favorite Zelda game, so that certainly helps.

Midna:

Chance: 0% - Just like Skull Kid, there's no real reason to think Midna will happen. She's probably in an even worse position too, as she's not even had the staying power of Skull Kid, who was at least still requested to some extent up to and including Ultimate. Midna was in a now or never situation back in Brawl, so I don't feel like she's any more likely than someone like Ghirahim.

Want: 0% - I thought Twilight Princess was a bit of a mixed game, and while I didn't dislike Midna, there are a lot of Zelda characters I'd much rather have. I also thought Wolf Link gameplay in Twilight Princess was super clunky, so I'm not particularly excited by the prospect of that being translated into Smash.

 

[Aetheri]

*emerges from the darkness*

No time for more in depth reasonings.

Skull Kid
Chance: 1%
Assist Trophy, somewhat irrelevant, does have some popularity backing them

Want: 90%
I like Skull Kid and am one of those Zelda fans that would appreciate a newcomer for the series.

Midna
Chance: 1%
Assist Trophy, somewhat irrelevant, does have some popularity backing them

Want: 100%
Most wanted newcomer overall. Twilight Princess is one of my favourite games of all time, and I believe Midna could translate well into Smash as a super fun character!

 

[GoodGrief741]

No time for more in depth reasonings.

You should probably make some time then because as it stands most of these scores aren't getting counted.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Elma/Rex pre-Skull Kid/Midna

Freddy Fazbear x265
Kazuma Kiryu x220
The Blob (De Blob) x190
Crypto x185
Carmen Sandiego x175
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x165
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x160

150 - 101

Reporter & Wrestler x125
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Gex x110

100 - 51

Ring Fit Adventurer x90
Big Daddy (BioShock) x85
Chun-Li x85
Mii Costume: Quote x85
Ryo Hazuki x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x75
[Rerate] Paper Mario x75
Decidueye x71
Meowth x69
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x68
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Bubsy x65
Segata Sanshiro x60

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Earthworm Jim x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Concept: Darksiders rep x45
Falinks x37
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Gnar (League of Legends) x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x31
Concept: DLC music packs x30
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
[Rerate] Kratos x25
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25

Under 25

Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x23
Terra Branford x23
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x19
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Zeraora x15
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Concept: Level-5 rep x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x10
Black Shadow x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Sirfetch'd x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Ahri (League of Legends) x5
Otto Matic x5
Concept: New Zelda character x5
Gran/Djeeta x5
Chell x3
Magolor x3
Concept: Returning stages x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
3 Mage Sisters x2

Today's new challengers are Gran/Djeeta, with 5 noms, and Concept: Returning stages, with 3 noms.

DaybreakHorizon You have to either choose one character to nominate or distribute your 5 noms between the two. (Unless Gran and Djeeta are the same character, in which case I apologize. I'm not familiar at all with Granblue)

They're the same character, similar to Robin, Corrin, the Villagers, etc.

I guess while I'm here I might as well chip in:

Skull Kid
Chance: 0%
I don't understand why people think Skull Kid has a legitimate chance. Sure, he's one of the more memorable antagonists in the Legend of Zelda series, and Majora's Mask is one of the more memorable games in the series, but ultimately he's one in a long line of LoZ antagonists, and there's nothing that gives him an edge. If Majora's Mask 3D were recent or he were to be prominently appearing in the series soon I'd say he's unlikely, but as things stand right now I'd say he has no chance.

Also he's an assist trophy, so he's got to fight against that too.

Want: 0%
I'd honestly be disappointed if he got in. There are better picks, even within the Legend of Zelda series.

Midna
Chance: 0%
If this were Brawl era I'd say she has a chance, but it's 12 years later and she still has yet to appear in another mainline Legend of Zelda game. Again, she's one of many in a long line of LoZ side characters and has nothing that gives her an edge. Unless BOTW 2 features her in some major way, or they're making a sequel to Twilight Princess and things just so happen to work out similar to Three Houses, she has no chance.

Want: 1%
I wouldn't be completely disappointed, but I'd definitely question the decision to add her to the game now.

Noms:
Gran/Djeeta x 5

 

[Ninjaed]

They're the same character, similar to Robin, Corrin, the Villagers, etc.

I guess while I'm here I might as well chip in:

Skull Kid
Chance: 0%
I don't understand why people think Skull Kid has a legitimate chance. Sure, he's one of the more memorable antagonists in the Legend of Zelda series, and Majora's Mask is one of the more memorable games in the series, but ultimately he's one in a long line of LoZ antagonists, and there's nothing that gives him an edge. If Majora's Mask 3D were recent or he were to be prominently appearing in the series soon I'd say he's unlikely, but as things stand right now I'd say he has no chance.

Also he's an assist trophy, so he's got to fight against that too.

Want: 0%
I'd honestly be disappointed if he got in. There are better picks, even within the Legend of Zelda series.

Midna
Chance: 0%
If this were Brawl era I'd say she has a chance, but it's 12 years later and she still has yet to appear in another mainline Legend of Zelda game. Again, she's one of many in a long line of LoZ side characters and has nothing that gives her an edge. Unless BOTW 2 features her in some major way, or they're making a sequel to Twilight Princess and things just so happen to work out similar to Three Houses, she has no chance.

Want: 1%
I wouldn't be completely disappointed, but I'd definitely question the decision to add her to the game now.

I'm curious, which antagonists and side characters were you thinking of?

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I'm curious, which antagonists and side characters were you thinking of?

Antagonists:

• Vaati
• Ghiarahim
• Demise
• Ganon
  • Phantom Ganon
• Skull Kid
• Yuuga

Side Characters:

• The Four Champions
• Tingle
• Tetra
• Midna
• Hilda

And I'm sure there are some I'm missing. All of these characters have been named at one point or another in speculation enough for me to remember them. Each of these characters have some valid claim, and none of them have a definitive edge over the others.

 

[Ninjaed]

Antagonists:

• Vaati
• Ghiarahim
• Demise
• Ganon
  • Phantom Ganon
• Skull Kid
• Yuuga

Side Characters:

• The Four Champions
• Tingle
• Tetra
• Midna
• Hilda

And I'm sure there are some I'm missing. All of these characters have been named at one point or another in speculation enough for me to remember them. Each of these characters have some valid claim, and none of them have a definitive edge over the others.

Thanks, there are some that surprise me in the sense that I've never even heard of them in speculation. Meanwhile, you didn't mention a few I've indeed heard about like Impa. Goes to show just how much potential there is for another LoZ rep... though I find it quite uncertain whether we'll even get a new one in Ultimate.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Antagonists:

• Vaati
• Ghiarahim
• Demise
• Ganon
  • Phantom Ganon
• Skull Kid
• Yuuga

Side Characters:

• The Four Champions
• Tingle
• Tetra
• Midna
• Hilda

And I'm sure there are some I'm missing. All of these characters have been named at one point or another in speculation enough for me to remember them. Each of these characters have some valid claim, and none of them have a definitive edge over the others.

I do think that you can give some an edge over others because of demand. I don't think I've ever seen anyone asking for Yuga or Demise.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Looks like Ring Fit's out of the running. I know they got a lot of nominations.

https://twitter.com/NintendoVS/status/1237550841529126912/