chocolatejr9
Smash Hero
- Joined
- Sep 30, 2018
- Messages
- 8,413
But by mentioning that there was nothing to mention about the nominations list, you mentioned something about the nominations list.
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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes
- Thread starter TCT~Phantom
- Start date
Jomosensual
Smash Champion
- Joined
- Aug 13, 2018
- Messages
- 2,014
Think that's a first since I started playing
Oof. Okay, let's see how long or short this ends up being. . .
Brexit
Chance: 0%
Xenoblade 2 already has three songs, two Mii costumes and eight Spirits in the game, which cover most of its main cast. Rex' Mii costume in particular was included as an apology for him not making it, with Sakurai even saying that "hopes that it makes you feel like you're playing as him". As Byleth, and, by extension, Corrin have shown, first-party DLC is more likely to be of the promotional variety, and as for that? Xenoblade 2 released over two years ago, and considering that (non-X) Xenoblade games follow the Final Fantasy/Fire Emblem approach to characters and settings, Rex' chances of being the protagonist of another game are pretty much non-existant. There is no shilling benefit to including him. Unless he gets picked up for Smash 6, he's gonna fade into obscurity by the time that Xenoblade 3, or even X2 roll around, and as far as I'm concerned, it's for the better. Which brings me to:
Want: 0%
If I could go below 0% for this want score, then believe me, I would do so without a moment's hesitation. Let me make this clear: I absolutely hate Rex. The original Xenoblade is one of my favourites games of all time, and Xenoblade 2 as a sequel takes pretty much everything that I loved about the game, and at best sort of does it alright, and worst, outright removes it. And Rex - as well as Pyra - himself is a huge part of why I don't like the game. His design is terrible (go ahead and google the term "bad character design", he's literally among the first results that pop up), and him inevitably coming with Pyra would bring a design that's even worse. His writing is, boring atrocious and generic, from a series that already managed to have a pretty good protagonist with Shulk. His voice is annoying. And to actually mention a point that would directly affect Smash, I cannot conceivably see him having an interesting moveset.
Everyone always talks about how "oh, he could come with Pyra, like a dual fighter, and he could switch Blades!!", and honestly, have we even played the same game? Combat in 2 has the driver doing most of the work, with the Blade only dropping in to do something for some special attacks. More likely than not, any Blade that Rex came with would just stand in the background and hold out their hand at him, only actually doing something for maybe a special move or Final Smash. If you want a proper dual fighter with a similar mechanic except better executed, there's always the Astral Chain protagonists. Anyway - even for Blade switching, I hardly see any appeal there. Who'd you even give Rex to get a full team of three? Sure, Pyra's a given but that's only one character. Who are the other two? Mythra? She wouldn't really work, because the weapon and arts she grants Rex are virtually identical to those of Pyra, only with a light element instead of fire. Both of the other Blades that Rex gets as a part of the main story could work, but both are spoilers. The one moreso than the other, but I really can't see said other getting spoiled by Smash, even with what they did with Fiora. The only other option then is to the Byleth route, and give Rex the Blades of the other party members, but even that doesn't work that well. Pandoria's sword form is extremely similar to Pyra's sword, so there's already plenty of potential overlap. Brighid and Dromarch meanwhile also have potential overlap, since both are dual wielded weapons. I know that Dromarch's rings are visually rather distinct from Brighid's whip swords, but even in 2 itself, they already had no issue in cloning both dual dagger and a dual katana animations from the ring ones.
In summation: Don't want this kid. If he somehow still makes it in, he'll be instantly my most hated character in the roster.
The "X" makes it sound cool.
Chance: 35%
I'll freely admit, I'm most likely quite overrating Elma's chances here. Sure, with my earlier statement about first-party DLC being most likely promotional, she's at first glance in a worse spot than Rex, since X is even older. But Elma simply has one thing that Rex doesn't: Potential future relevance. Sure, there's always the potential of an X port coming, which could already help her chances. But even beyond that, a sequel for X is pretty likely. For as much as people want to call it the "black sheep" of the series (???), it still sold around a million copies on the Wii U, and the series' director has stated that he doesn't like working on the same thing too soon after finishing something, meaning that right now, X2 is looking more likely to be the next game than Xenoblade 3. And considering that the original X ended on a cliffhanger, Elma coming back for a sequel is looking pretty much guaranteed.
With Ultimate itself, it's also important to keep in mind that the game still has no music from X, and that not even all of the game's (non-optional) party members have Spirits. The content to be added for a Challenger Pack is definitely there.
Want: 100%
Elma is currently my most wanted character, to the point that both the base roster for Ultimate and first Fighter Pass have left me rather bitter over her lack of inclusion and content for X. With her dual-wielding katana and gun moveset, she'd also provide a suitably interesting moveset, and something we don't really have in the game yet.
Predicting Skull Kid to get around 9.6%.
Predicting Midna to get around 7.8%.
Nominating Any Octopath Traveler rep x5.
. . .I call this post: "Xenoblade 2 and Rex in particular are garbage, and here is why".
Brexit
Chance: 0%
Xenoblade 2 already has three songs, two Mii costumes and eight Spirits in the game, which cover most of its main cast. Rex' Mii costume in particular was included as an apology for him not making it, with Sakurai even saying that "hopes that it makes you feel like you're playing as him". As Byleth, and, by extension, Corrin have shown, first-party DLC is more likely to be of the promotional variety, and as for that? Xenoblade 2 released over two years ago, and considering that (non-X) Xenoblade games follow the Final Fantasy/Fire Emblem approach to characters and settings, Rex' chances of being the protagonist of another game are pretty much non-existant. There is no shilling benefit to including him. Unless he gets picked up for Smash 6, he's gonna fade into obscurity by the time that Xenoblade 3, or even X2 roll around, and as far as I'm concerned, it's for the better. Which brings me to:
Want: 0%
If I could go below 0% for this want score, then believe me, I would do so without a moment's hesitation. Let me make this clear: I absolutely hate Rex. The original Xenoblade is one of my favourites games of all time, and Xenoblade 2 as a sequel takes pretty much everything that I loved about the game, and at best sort of does it alright, and worst, outright removes it. And Rex - as well as Pyra - himself is a huge part of why I don't like the game. His design is terrible (go ahead and google the term "bad character design", he's literally among the first results that pop up), and him inevitably coming with Pyra would bring a design that's even worse. His writing is, boring atrocious and generic, from a series that already managed to have a pretty good protagonist with Shulk. His voice is annoying. And to actually mention a point that would directly affect Smash, I cannot conceivably see him having an interesting moveset.
Everyone always talks about how "oh, he could come with Pyra, like a dual fighter, and he could switch Blades!!", and honestly, have we even played the same game? Combat in 2 has the driver doing most of the work, with the Blade only dropping in to do something for some special attacks. More likely than not, any Blade that Rex came with would just stand in the background and hold out their hand at him, only actually doing something for maybe a special move or Final Smash. If you want a proper dual fighter with a similar mechanic except better executed, there's always the Astral Chain protagonists. Anyway - even for Blade switching, I hardly see any appeal there. Who'd you even give Rex to get a full team of three? Sure, Pyra's a given but that's only one character. Who are the other two? Mythra? She wouldn't really work, because the weapon and arts she grants Rex are virtually identical to those of Pyra, only with a light element instead of fire. Both of the other Blades that Rex gets as a part of the main story could work, but both are spoilers. The one moreso than the other, but I really can't see said other getting spoiled by Smash, even with what they did with Fiora. The only other option then is to the Byleth route, and give Rex the Blades of the other party members, but even that doesn't work that well. Pandoria's sword form is extremely similar to Pyra's sword, so there's already plenty of potential overlap. Brighid and Dromarch meanwhile also have potential overlap, since both are dual wielded weapons. I know that Dromarch's rings are visually rather distinct from Brighid's whip swords, but even in 2 itself, they already had no issue in cloning both dual dagger and a dual katana animations from the ring ones.
In summation: Don't want this kid. If he somehow still makes it in, he'll be instantly my most hated character in the roster.
The "X" makes it sound cool.
Chance: 35%
I'll freely admit, I'm most likely quite overrating Elma's chances here. Sure, with my earlier statement about first-party DLC being most likely promotional, she's at first glance in a worse spot than Rex, since X is even older. But Elma simply has one thing that Rex doesn't: Potential future relevance. Sure, there's always the potential of an X port coming, which could already help her chances. But even beyond that, a sequel for X is pretty likely. For as much as people want to call it the "black sheep" of the series (???), it still sold around a million copies on the Wii U, and the series' director has stated that he doesn't like working on the same thing too soon after finishing something, meaning that right now, X2 is looking more likely to be the next game than Xenoblade 3. And considering that the original X ended on a cliffhanger, Elma coming back for a sequel is looking pretty much guaranteed.
With Ultimate itself, it's also important to keep in mind that the game still has no music from X, and that not even all of the game's (non-optional) party members have Spirits. The content to be added for a Challenger Pack is definitely there.
Want: 100%
Elma is currently my most wanted character, to the point that both the base roster for Ultimate and first Fighter Pass have left me rather bitter over her lack of inclusion and content for X. With her dual-wielding katana and gun moveset, she'd also provide a suitably interesting moveset, and something we don't really have in the game yet.
Predicting Skull Kid to get around 9.6%.
Predicting Midna to get around 7.8%.
Nominating Any Octopath Traveler rep x5.
But isn't that in itself something worth mentioning?
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Ridrool64
Smash Lord
Xenoblade Generation 1.5 and 2.
Chance (Rex): 10%, and I'm gonna be generous since I don't know if his Mii Costume counts as a DLC one or not. It's close enough to base game that I could see an exception, but once it's sold separately he's dead. Still, the fact that Sakurai even lamented Rex's exclusion in the first place is a sign that he COULD be one of the characters he'd go back to later. Aside from that, well, everything else everyone else said applies.
Chance (Elma): 0%. Hear me out on this one. Let's see: Elma has a few things going for her, like X not having a lot of content, or the potential for a new port of a game to promote, unlike Rex who's likely stuck with his current game.
There's just one problem: Rook. Considering that Sakurai has gone after protagonist over most recognizable, marketed character time and again (First there was Robin over Chrom, then we had Corrin over Azura, Hero over Slime, and Byleth over the House Leaders), I cannot possibly see Elma make it in anymore. Can't think of a reason why, if Sakurai wanted to include a character from Xenoblade X, he wouldn't try and work with Rook. Mind you, this is on top of the issues with a Xenoblade X rep over 2.
Want (Both): 20%. I don't give two ****s about Xenoblade in general, but I think they take the cake for least lucky fanbase, at least in terms of Ultimate. I guess the moveset would be cool for both, too. But the thing is that I just... cannot care about these characters. I'd be at least glad to know a DLC character at all, and be... not quite happy, but pleased that other people are happy with the pick. But I can't really say I'm invested in Xenoblade enough to care about them beyond their functions, which they both at least have to themselves.
Paper Mario x 5. Skull Kid and Midna are both Assist Trophies not named Waluigi, and I dunno if their fandoms will show up like Isaac's did. 0.53% for the both of them.
Chance (Rex): 10%, and I'm gonna be generous since I don't know if his Mii Costume counts as a DLC one or not. It's close enough to base game that I could see an exception, but once it's sold separately he's dead. Still, the fact that Sakurai even lamented Rex's exclusion in the first place is a sign that he COULD be one of the characters he'd go back to later. Aside from that, well, everything else everyone else said applies.
Chance (Elma): 0%. Hear me out on this one. Let's see: Elma has a few things going for her, like X not having a lot of content, or the potential for a new port of a game to promote, unlike Rex who's likely stuck with his current game.
There's just one problem: Rook. Considering that Sakurai has gone after protagonist over most recognizable, marketed character time and again (First there was Robin over Chrom, then we had Corrin over Azura, Hero over Slime, and Byleth over the House Leaders), I cannot possibly see Elma make it in anymore. Can't think of a reason why, if Sakurai wanted to include a character from Xenoblade X, he wouldn't try and work with Rook. Mind you, this is on top of the issues with a Xenoblade X rep over 2.
Want (Both): 20%. I don't give two ****s about Xenoblade in general, but I think they take the cake for least lucky fanbase, at least in terms of Ultimate. I guess the moveset would be cool for both, too. But the thing is that I just... cannot care about these characters. I'd be at least glad to know a DLC character at all, and be... not quite happy, but pleased that other people are happy with the pick. But I can't really say I'm invested in Xenoblade enough to care about them beyond their functions, which they both at least have to themselves.
Paper Mario x 5. Skull Kid and Midna are both Assist Trophies not named Waluigi, and I dunno if their fandoms will show up like Isaac's did. 0.53% for the both of them.
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RouffWestie
Smash Lord
Elma
Chance: 0%
Her game didn't leave much of an impact. At this point, the series is already moving on possibly to it's third entry, and she's no longer the face of the latest game. If Nintendo picked any Xenoblade DLC for Smash, I think they'd look at other entries first.
Want: 0%
I did not buy a WiiU, so I don't have any familiarity with it's library. Nothing about X or Elma looks like anything I'd be interested in. I'm ready to see the next entry in the franchise, since so far I haven't really been pulled in yet.
Rex
Chance: 1%
Sakurai acknowledged that they would have put him in, but he arrived on the scene too late. At that point the first Fighter's Pass had already been decided. I'm hesitant to believe additional DLC wasn't being considered at that time, so including Rex as a costume wouldn't make much sense. But in the rare case that Nintendo did consider a second Fighter's Pass after the first set had been decided, I think it's very slightly possible they would choose to add Rex.
Want: 0%
For the record, I'm not super into JRPGs. There's a couple good gems, but majority of the genre is a tough sell for me. I haven't played any Xenoblade games, and I don't think Rex has anything I'm looking for in a Smash newcomer. Like Elma, nothing about him or his game looks like anything I'd like.
Chance: 0%
Her game didn't leave much of an impact. At this point, the series is already moving on possibly to it's third entry, and she's no longer the face of the latest game. If Nintendo picked any Xenoblade DLC for Smash, I think they'd look at other entries first.
Want: 0%
I did not buy a WiiU, so I don't have any familiarity with it's library. Nothing about X or Elma looks like anything I'd be interested in. I'm ready to see the next entry in the franchise, since so far I haven't really been pulled in yet.
Rex
Chance: 1%
Sakurai acknowledged that they would have put him in, but he arrived on the scene too late. At that point the first Fighter's Pass had already been decided. I'm hesitant to believe additional DLC wasn't being considered at that time, so including Rex as a costume wouldn't make much sense. But in the rare case that Nintendo did consider a second Fighter's Pass after the first set had been decided, I think it's very slightly possible they would choose to add Rex.
Want: 0%
For the record, I'm not super into JRPGs. There's a couple good gems, but majority of the genre is a tough sell for me. I haven't played any Xenoblade games, and I don't think Rex has anything I'm looking for in a Smash newcomer. Like Elma, nothing about him or his game looks like anything I'd like.
I like your attitude! Let's show 'em a thing or three! Let's show 'em a thing or three! I like your attitude! I like your attitude! Let's show 'em a thing or three!
Chance: 40%
When it comes to spirit promotions I think Rex is one of the leading candidates.
Something I thought should be brought up: the base game roster for Ultimate had already been decided on by December 2015, with a few slots being reserved for future characters like Incineroar. You might be thinking "if Sakurai really wanted to add Rex to the base game, he'd just save a spot for him until Xenoblade 2 releases!" But there are two things to keep in mind:
The main thing holding my score from being higher is that we currently have Xenoblade 2 content in Ultimate already, with Rex himself being both a spirit and a Mii costume. While there is definitely more room for additional Xenoblade 2 content (especially with the Torna DLC being a thing), there's a chance Sakurai could be thinking "that's enough Xenoblade 2 content, time for me to rep other games through DLC." I think being a spirit/Mii costume in the base game is less damning than if it were to happened during a DLC wave, but I fear that the current Xenoblade 2 content may come back to haunt Rex's chances.
Want: 100%
It's crazy looking back on my experience with Xenoblade 2. At first I didn't really like it since I wasn't a fan of the battle system and the writing was cringeworthy at times. But after getting used to the combat and doing a bunch of sidequests, it became one of my favorite Switch games.
I'd be lying if I said Rex was some deep and complex character. For starters he's the textbook example of a Stock Shōnen Hero not to mention most of his English screams legit made me laugh when I first heard them. While my dream Xenoblade 2 pick would be Morag/Brighid (because flaming whip swords are a new level of cool), Rex would still be an amazing fighter thanks to his blade combos and of course Pyra/Mythra.
Oh and Xenoblade 2's OST is phenomenal. If it hadn't been for my usual three song limit for the music posts, I totally would've posted the themes of Gormott and Uraya. The Mor Ardain theme (second track I posted in today's Rex music post) is also one of my most wanted music tracks for Ultimate. Not to mention if the Torna DLC is counted then we've got a ton of other amazing tracks available for Smash as well.
-----
Elma
Chance: 1%
She's largely been overshadowed by Rex as a result of Xenoblade 2 being a giant success while X sort of just happened on the Wii U. If Elma was going to be playable I think it would've been either as Smash 4 DLC or sometime by the end of Ultimate's first Fighter Pass. With a new season now happening, I think Elma is doomed to join the likes of Sceptile and Micaiah in the somewhat popular picks released under the absolute worst circumstances group.
Want: Abstain
I never played Xenoblade X so I won't comment.
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Skull Kid chance prediction: 5.83%
Midna chance prediction: 4.02%
Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x5
Chance: 40%
When it comes to spirit promotions I think Rex is one of the leading candidates.
- Sakurai greatly enjoyed Xenoblade 2 and even considered it to be a considerable achievement.
- Rex is a very popular Smash request especially in Japan even while being stuck as just a Mii costume.
- Sakurai is aware of Rex's Smash popularity as he apologized to fans that he couldn't be playable when Rex's Mii costume was revealed.
- Sakurai later stated that he most likely would've added Rex had Xenoblade 2 released earlier.
- Recently, Sakurai has stated that he's not thinking about any future Smash game at the moment which makes me think he'll go all in with fan requests like Rex and not bother holding off on them for later.
- The Xenoblade series as a whole has also been becoming more and more popular each year, so there's a chance even Nintendo could shill for it further by adding the protagonist of their most recent game. Yes Xenoblade 2 is a few years old but we still got Byleth months after Three Houses released.
Something I thought should be brought up: the base game roster for Ultimate had already been decided on by December 2015, with a few slots being reserved for future characters like Incineroar. You might be thinking "if Sakurai really wanted to add Rex to the base game, he'd just save a spot for him until Xenoblade 2 releases!" But there are two things to keep in mind:
- There most likely wasn't a playable build of Xenoblade 2 at the time, as it wouldn't release for another two years. Also the first Fighter Pass lineup was most likely decided on throughout 2018, which explains why Sakurai had a build of Three Houses to become familiar with Byleth. Yes Mario and Link have attributes of Odyssey and Breath of the Wild in their movesets which weren't fully available by 2015, but those are just small things that don't take years of planning to add (IIRC Sakurai added BotW elements to Link's moveset after playing a build of it months later).
- The Xenoblade series at the time was still slowly growing so adding someone from Xenoblade 2 wasn't really a priority for anyone. Same for the first Fighter Pass when DLC talks with other companies most likely began throughout 2018 (less than a year after Xenoblade 2 released). As far as first party promotional picks go, Three Houses definitely had priority since Fire Emblem as a whole is much bigger (though I won't deny bias also played a big part as to why we got Byleth).
The main thing holding my score from being higher is that we currently have Xenoblade 2 content in Ultimate already, with Rex himself being both a spirit and a Mii costume. While there is definitely more room for additional Xenoblade 2 content (especially with the Torna DLC being a thing), there's a chance Sakurai could be thinking "that's enough Xenoblade 2 content, time for me to rep other games through DLC." I think being a spirit/Mii costume in the base game is less damning than if it were to happened during a DLC wave, but I fear that the current Xenoblade 2 content may come back to haunt Rex's chances.
Want: 100%
It's crazy looking back on my experience with Xenoblade 2. At first I didn't really like it since I wasn't a fan of the battle system and the writing was cringeworthy at times. But after getting used to the combat and doing a bunch of sidequests, it became one of my favorite Switch games.
I'd be lying if I said Rex was some deep and complex character. For starters he's the textbook example of a Stock Shōnen Hero not to mention most of his English screams legit made me laugh when I first heard them. While my dream Xenoblade 2 pick would be Morag/Brighid (because flaming whip swords are a new level of cool), Rex would still be an amazing fighter thanks to his blade combos and of course Pyra/Mythra.
Oh and Xenoblade 2's OST is phenomenal. If it hadn't been for my usual three song limit for the music posts, I totally would've posted the themes of Gormott and Uraya. The Mor Ardain theme (second track I posted in today's Rex music post) is also one of my most wanted music tracks for Ultimate. Not to mention if the Torna DLC is counted then we've got a ton of other amazing tracks available for Smash as well.
-----
Elma
Chance: 1%
She's largely been overshadowed by Rex as a result of Xenoblade 2 being a giant success while X sort of just happened on the Wii U. If Elma was going to be playable I think it would've been either as Smash 4 DLC or sometime by the end of Ultimate's first Fighter Pass. With a new season now happening, I think Elma is doomed to join the likes of Sceptile and Micaiah in the somewhat popular picks released under the absolute worst circumstances group.
Want: Abstain
I never played Xenoblade X so I won't comment.
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Skull Kid chance prediction: 5.83%
Midna chance prediction: 4.02%
Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x5
To be fair, 2B and Captain Falcon were also some of the first results and their designs are pretty rad.
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Ninjaed
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Nov 7, 2018
- Messages
- 468
I've already talked about this recently. No way to know. I choose to assume it was planned because I don't see why Nintendo wouldn't plan ahead on such a big and important project (which revived the Switch with Odyssey). Not to mention it involved 3rd parties and you've got to negotiate there. That takes time.
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chocolatejr9
Smash Hero
- Joined
- Sep 30, 2018
- Messages
- 8,413
Elma
Chance: 0%
The more I think about it, the more I realise Elma's only way to Smash was through base game. Xenoblade X never had a chance to shine due to the Wii U, and their currently aren't any plans for a Switch port. Plus, while the lack of content is notable, it probably would've been at least acknowledged by now. As much as I hate to say it, Elma's dead.
Want: 90%
From what I've seen, she seems pretty interesting. The dual knifes and guns could really set her apart from the other characters. Unfortunately, I haven't played her game, so I can't say much else about her.
Rex
Chance: 60%
Yes, I know, he's a Mii costume, but look at the facts. He was a hugely requested character, as noted by Sakurai himself. This costume can't even be bought seperately from the Fighter's Pass, making it inaccessible to most. On top of all that, even Japan (who are surprisingly chill with deconfirmations) was apparently upset that he didn't make it into Ultimate (unlike Waluigi, whose outcry was exclusive to the west). Granted, I don't have a proper source on that, so take it with a grain of salt.
Want: 100%
I loved XC2. The world was massive and creative, and the characters were all fun and memorable. Even Rex, who is indeed a Shonen protagonist, goes through a surprisingly relatable character arc, learning to accept that sometimes, life's not fair. People tend to brush off the game because "it's not what I liked", but hey, different strokes for different folks. But I do agree that Rex was robbed in base game, and I would love to see this get rectified while they still can.
Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5
Chance: 0%
The more I think about it, the more I realise Elma's only way to Smash was through base game. Xenoblade X never had a chance to shine due to the Wii U, and their currently aren't any plans for a Switch port. Plus, while the lack of content is notable, it probably would've been at least acknowledged by now. As much as I hate to say it, Elma's dead.
Want: 90%
From what I've seen, she seems pretty interesting. The dual knifes and guns could really set her apart from the other characters. Unfortunately, I haven't played her game, so I can't say much else about her.
Rex
Chance: 60%
Yes, I know, he's a Mii costume, but look at the facts. He was a hugely requested character, as noted by Sakurai himself. This costume can't even be bought seperately from the Fighter's Pass, making it inaccessible to most. On top of all that, even Japan (who are surprisingly chill with deconfirmations) was apparently upset that he didn't make it into Ultimate (unlike Waluigi, whose outcry was exclusive to the west). Granted, I don't have a proper source on that, so take it with a grain of salt.
Want: 100%
I loved XC2. The world was massive and creative, and the characters were all fun and memorable. Even Rex, who is indeed a Shonen protagonist, goes through a surprisingly relatable character arc, learning to accept that sometimes, life's not fair. People tend to brush off the game because "it's not what I liked", but hey, different strokes for different folks. But I do agree that Rex was robbed in base game, and I would love to see this get rectified while they still can.
Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5
I.D.
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Dec 1, 2019
- Messages
- 1,552
Rex
Chance: 0%. He missed the train to Smash Ultimate. His game is too old to shill, it's already represented, ($25) mii costume consolation prize, Nintendo is in charge of DLC so any alleged Sakurai bias is out of the question too. Even if I try to imagine scenarios where Monolith Soft begs Nintendo for a character and they accept, I have a strong feeling Rex wouldn't be the one. He can make it in the next Smash but not this one.
Want: 80%. Haters to the left please. The CHAD salvager and his wife with "Disassociative" Identity Disorder are a perfect fit for Smash. They bring: swords, stance swaps, fanservice, Sakurai ******** about CERO for forcing him to censor pantyshots, content from a great game and immense butthurt over 2 years in the running. What's not to like?
Elma
Chance: 0%. If Rex missed the train then Elma never even departed for the train station in the first place. Seriously you know a character's chances are bad when their supporters make theories based on how little content and love their game has received compared to other entries in the same series. But yeah, game is already represented, game is WAY too old to shill and perhaps most damning, neither Nintendo nor Sakurai seem to give a ****: Sakurai has never talked or even mentioned Xenoblade X and the little content he did put in Ultimate feels more like an obligatory minimum than anything else. Nintendo doesn't seem to be interested in porting XBX to the Switch, enough said.
Want: 30%. Elma is a damn plank of wood, man. You know it's bad when the emotionless robot from Xenosaga feels more alive than her. Speaking of which, she'd be my least wanted "main character" of not just Xenoblade but Takahashi's previous Xeno games too. Everything she can do (artillery, swords, giant robots) other characters can do better or in more interesting ways. Still, I'd take her over no Monolith characters.
Chance: 0%. He missed the train to Smash Ultimate. His game is too old to shill, it's already represented, ($25) mii costume consolation prize, Nintendo is in charge of DLC so any alleged Sakurai bias is out of the question too. Even if I try to imagine scenarios where Monolith Soft begs Nintendo for a character and they accept, I have a strong feeling Rex wouldn't be the one. He can make it in the next Smash but not this one.
Want: 80%. Haters to the left please. The CHAD salvager and his wife with "Disassociative" Identity Disorder are a perfect fit for Smash. They bring: swords, stance swaps, fanservice, Sakurai ******** about CERO for forcing him to censor pantyshots, content from a great game and immense butthurt over 2 years in the running. What's not to like?
Elma
Chance: 0%. If Rex missed the train then Elma never even departed for the train station in the first place. Seriously you know a character's chances are bad when their supporters make theories based on how little content and love their game has received compared to other entries in the same series. But yeah, game is already represented, game is WAY too old to shill and perhaps most damning, neither Nintendo nor Sakurai seem to give a ****: Sakurai has never talked or even mentioned Xenoblade X and the little content he did put in Ultimate feels more like an obligatory minimum than anything else. Nintendo doesn't seem to be interested in porting XBX to the Switch, enough said.
Want: 30%. Elma is a damn plank of wood, man. You know it's bad when the emotionless robot from Xenosaga feels more alive than her. Speaking of which, she'd be my least wanted "main character" of not just Xenoblade but Takahashi's previous Xeno games too. Everything she can do (artillery, swords, giant robots) other characters can do better or in more interesting ways. Still, I'd take her over no Monolith characters.
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
I think it's a first since I started doing nominations and that was in the base game.
Uhhh, source? Can't find anything about it doing even close to a mil
So, nothing. I think your claim of "1% chance they hadn't planned ahead for a Vol 2" is a bit of an exaggeration given the evidence available.
3DSNinja
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Oct 30, 2018
- Messages
- 1,390
I'm abstaining, as ironically despite my love of JRPG's (Persona 3 is one of my top 5 Games Of all time and is one of the few video games that actually made me cry multiple times) I haven't played any Xenoblade games despite the original. They're on my huge backlog tho.
Nominations Freddy Fazbear x5
Nominations Freddy Fazbear x5
Sid-cada
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Jan 19, 2013
- Messages
- 1,784
Rex
Chance - 15% - We have direct word that his costume was meant as a consolation prize for him. So what does this mean now that we have characters they probably didn't plan? I view it as a boost to his chances, but not enough to be a major boost to the top. I think he's probably going to frontline, or his chances are going to badly decrease.
Want - 60% - Not too familiar with him, but he kinda deserves it. Otherwise, the Fire Emblem favoritism may be a bit much to swallow.
Elma
Chance - 0% - Time and again, Sakurai will pick the one who best represents the series core mechanics over anyone else, and she's not the main character. As such, Rook would definitely take priority over her, I think.
Want - 50% - More neutral on her due to not playing her game. I think it will mostly come down to execution on how I would appreciate her.
Nominations
De Blob X5
Chance - 15% - We have direct word that his costume was meant as a consolation prize for him. So what does this mean now that we have characters they probably didn't plan? I view it as a boost to his chances, but not enough to be a major boost to the top. I think he's probably going to frontline, or his chances are going to badly decrease.
Want - 60% - Not too familiar with him, but he kinda deserves it. Otherwise, the Fire Emblem favoritism may be a bit much to swallow.
Elma
Chance - 0% - Time and again, Sakurai will pick the one who best represents the series core mechanics over anyone else, and she's not the main character. As such, Rook would definitely take priority over her, I think.
Want - 50% - More neutral on her due to not playing her game. I think it will mostly come down to execution on how I would appreciate her.
Nominations
De Blob X5
- Joined
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- Messages
- 10,398
- Switch FC
- SW-0351-1523-9047
Not necessarily; he picked Robin and Lucina over Chrom (there's some debate over who the main character in Awakening is, but it definitely seemed like Chrom for the first half, or more, of the game), and Pikachu over the Pokemon Trainer (who, as the playable character and the one who the series' core mechanic of catching Pokemon revolves around, seems like they'd be considered the main character).
Admittedly, I'm somewhat biased (Elma is in my signature as one of my most wanted), but there's still precedent for it. (plus, Elma represented the game as a whole in Xenoblade Chronicles 2, while the rookie was nowhere to be seen)
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Ninjaed
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Nov 7, 2018
- Messages
- 468
That's pretty much it. The game has not one but 2 main characters: for the first half, Robin just follows Chrom around. Your avatar is merely a support character. For the second half, Robin's link to the antagonists puts them on the forefront while Chrom becomes the one to get dragged around by Robin's plot.
It's not too uncommon to have media (be it books, films, games, ...) feature more than one protagonist, but it's easier for people to shove everything into the same box they're used to. So when it doesn't follow what they consider to be the norm, well they try to make it anyway and that leads to sometimes curious debates.
HansShotFirst20
Smash Ace
Chances? 3/10 for either rep. Elma becomes like 5/10 if XCX gets a remaster on the Switch.
In my view XC2 got passed up for Fire Emblem, plain and simple. If Nintendo was gonna push Rex for DLC, they would've done it on the first pass. Now it's probably been too late since the release of XC2.
In my view XC2 got passed up for Fire Emblem, plain and simple. If Nintendo was gonna push Rex for DLC, they would've done it on the first pass. Now it's probably been too late since the release of XC2.
That's not how the rating system here works. If you want your rating to be counted, you need to give percentage-based ratings and explain it for both characters individually.
HansShotFirst20
Smash Ace
As you wish
Elma -- 5%
- Elma probably lost her chance the moment XC2 was announced. Xenoblade X had already failed to surpass the popularity of the first Xenoblade chronicles, and losing recency bias on top of that squashed her chances. That said, her chances jump by a couple percent if a Xenoblade X def. edition gets announced to follow XC1DE.
Rex and/or Pyra and/or Mythra -- 10%
- Rex and Pyra have way more of a chance than Elma ever had. Their game was more popular, they managed to build and actual Smash speculation community around themselves, and they're the MC's of the most recent installment of the Xenoblade franchise. That said, I think XC2 got passed up for Fire Emblem, plain and simple. Sakurai initially claimed that their game released too late to be considered, though Byleth being added conflicts with that, so I think Nintendo just Prioritized FE when pushing a JRPG character from a recent title for the Fighter's Pass (IMO it's better this way, FETH was waaay better than XC2). At this point it's probably been too late since XC2's release for them to be considered for the second Fighter's Pass (ironic, considering the reasoning for them not being added to the first pass)
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
Actually, if people give some other kind of rating (like X/10 or X/5) I just pass that to percentages, that way we don't exclude people who aren't familiar with the rules. But just as long as math allows it, I'm not gonna be making up scores.
Jomosensual
Smash Champion
- Joined
- Aug 13, 2018
- Messages
- 2,014
Ah sweet, time to make everyone's lives harder and give out the first ever 2.5802756171 out of 7 rating
chocolatejr9
Smash Hero
- Joined
- Sep 30, 2018
- Messages
- 8,413
I hate this already.
clearandsweet
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Jul 19, 2014
- Messages
- 273
This is kind of a weird one. Frankly, I'm still surprised/confused that Shulk is even playable in Smash. That game did under a million on the largest install base ever. I mean I guess Bayonetta, Ike, Earthbound, ect are all kind of in a similar situation...
XCX did about the same numbers, and on a Wii U only install base at that, so I guess sales aren't much of a factor. I beat it and thoroughly enjoyed the world and Elma as a character. I loved how it positioned her and the avatar: you're just her subordinate the entire game and it's kind of her story.
She's also got a ton of fun to be had in her moveset. What was it? Full Metal Jaguar?
...
I have double checked and yes it is FMJ and that is stupid and amazing. And yeah I'd love to see some mech properties or art buffs/debuffs somewhere in there for a gimmick. Overall, I think highly of Elma and XCX as a whole, but I'm not sure this game has the kind of support/evergreen nature that is worth representing.
Elma's chances: 2%
Want: 65%
I remember thinking similar things about XC2. The world design is staggering. The gameplay is very fun. The progression/blade systems/side quests were all incredibly enjoyable. In fact, I enjoyed all my time spent with XC2, right up until the very end.
I think Rex is a pretty lame protagonist, and director Tetsuya Takahashi literally said they didn't want to tell a complicated story so they stuck to simple shounen tropes and he kind of hates it. And yeah, it sucks. His design sucks, his personality is fine but bland, and his journey to the harem end kind of sucks too. Also why does Pyra have such massive tiddies. Oh right, because who cares.
It's a great game and RPG, but the characters and story aren't ones I look back on fondly. I think that's mirrored in the reception of the game and how it's dropped off markedly since the month following its release (in a way that Xenoblade Chronicles 1 didn't, afaik).
Rex's chances: 4%
Want: 5%, give me Finch or Morag for Smash Bros instead.
I think the best bet for more XC reps in Smash is to wait for whatever Monoliftsoft is doing next and ride that shill pick. I remember they were pretty pumped about it in some interviews.
XCX did about the same numbers, and on a Wii U only install base at that, so I guess sales aren't much of a factor. I beat it and thoroughly enjoyed the world and Elma as a character. I loved how it positioned her and the avatar: you're just her subordinate the entire game and it's kind of her story.
She's also got a ton of fun to be had in her moveset. What was it? Full Metal Jaguar?
...
I have double checked and yes it is FMJ and that is stupid and amazing. And yeah I'd love to see some mech properties or art buffs/debuffs somewhere in there for a gimmick. Overall, I think highly of Elma and XCX as a whole, but I'm not sure this game has the kind of support/evergreen nature that is worth representing.
Elma's chances: 2%
Want: 65%
I remember thinking similar things about XC2. The world design is staggering. The gameplay is very fun. The progression/blade systems/side quests were all incredibly enjoyable. In fact, I enjoyed all my time spent with XC2, right up until the very end.
I think Rex is a pretty lame protagonist, and director Tetsuya Takahashi literally said they didn't want to tell a complicated story so they stuck to simple shounen tropes and he kind of hates it. And yeah, it sucks. His design sucks, his personality is fine but bland, and his journey to the harem end kind of sucks too. Also why does Pyra have such massive tiddies. Oh right, because who cares.
It's a great game and RPG, but the characters and story aren't ones I look back on fondly. I think that's mirrored in the reception of the game and how it's dropped off markedly since the month following its release (in a way that Xenoblade Chronicles 1 didn't, afaik).
Rex's chances: 4%
Want: 5%, give me Finch or Morag for Smash Bros instead.
I think the best bet for more XC reps in Smash is to wait for whatever Monoliftsoft is doing next and ride that shill pick. I remember they were pretty pumped about it in some interviews.
Renmazuo
Smash Cadet
- Joined
- Nov 27, 2019
- Messages
- 65
Ignoring for a moment that this "article" is talking about the first Xenoblade and not XB2, this is one of the most biased things I've ever seen, with most (if not all) the quotes taken out of context and rife with blatant misinformation to make it look as if Takahashi hates Xenoblade. I encourage you, and anyone else reading this, to not spread this garbage.
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
Dixie Kong
18.08% Chance - 70.52% Want
First time we rated her she got 22.57% chance and 67.42% want. This was back in the pre-Joker days when people were hoping for big Nintendo characters and K. Rool's announcement was still fresh enough that people were satiated for DK newcomers. Last time we rated her she got 14.17% chance and 81.92% want (which was, before this rerating, the highest want score for any character). This was right after Banjo, which probably made people want to complete the Rare crew - still, that's a precipitous fall in want, so Dixie's fans have their work cut out for them. As for the rise in chance, the reveal of more DLC and the inclusion of Byleth are our likely culprits here.
Winner of predictions was
Cadillac
with a precise 19.00%
Honestly, I'm surprised that Dixie didn't beat Isaac's chance. But I guess I was expecting higher scores all around. Ah well.
Bandana Dee
21.70% Chance - 74.41% Want
First time we rated him he got 55.58% chance and 82.48% want. This was also just in the post-release window and yeah, he was the king of the world. Most likely first party (and second only to Steve) and most wanted by a mile. I guess he was seen as having nothing against him, with no Kirby newcomers in base game, and tons of popularity to get him a spot. This is what months of "would have fit better in base game" does to a character in speculation, I guess. Last time we rated him he got 8.88% chance and 66.02% want. He tanked in chance because by this point (post-E3) people were certain we'd only get third parties, and unlike Dixie he couldn't even be an Echo (which many felt was in the cards). Can't really explain drop in want aside from the classic people want what's likely. He recovered great both in chance and want - once again, the usual suspects of Byleth and more DLC can explain it.
Winner of predictions was
Sari
with 22.86%
Bandana Dee should be called Crown Dee, as he retakes both his crowns. He's now the likeliest first party character (with the same caveats of the confirmed Master Hand and the disconfirmed Akira Howard), beating Isaac's fresh score of 20.45%, and the most wanted first party character (unlike Dixie's previous want score, he couldn't pass Crash to be the winner overall).
18.08% Chance - 70.52% Want
First time we rated her she got 22.57% chance and 67.42% want. This was back in the pre-Joker days when people were hoping for big Nintendo characters and K. Rool's announcement was still fresh enough that people were satiated for DK newcomers. Last time we rated her she got 14.17% chance and 81.92% want (which was, before this rerating, the highest want score for any character). This was right after Banjo, which probably made people want to complete the Rare crew - still, that's a precipitous fall in want, so Dixie's fans have their work cut out for them. As for the rise in chance, the reveal of more DLC and the inclusion of Byleth are our likely culprits here.
Winner of predictions was
Cadillac
with a precise 19.00%Honestly, I'm surprised that Dixie didn't beat Isaac's chance. But I guess I was expecting higher scores all around. Ah well.
Bandana Dee
21.70% Chance - 74.41% Want
First time we rated him he got 55.58% chance and 82.48% want. This was also just in the post-release window and yeah, he was the king of the world. Most likely first party (and second only to Steve) and most wanted by a mile. I guess he was seen as having nothing against him, with no Kirby newcomers in base game, and tons of popularity to get him a spot. This is what months of "would have fit better in base game" does to a character in speculation, I guess. Last time we rated him he got 8.88% chance and 66.02% want. He tanked in chance because by this point (post-E3) people were certain we'd only get third parties, and unlike Dixie he couldn't even be an Echo (which many felt was in the cards). Can't really explain drop in want aside from the classic people want what's likely. He recovered great both in chance and want - once again, the usual suspects of Byleth and more DLC can explain it.
Winner of predictions was
Sari
with 22.86%Bandana Dee should be called Crown Dee, as he retakes both his crowns. He's now the likeliest first party character (with the same caveats of the confirmed Master Hand and the disconfirmed Akira Howard), beating Isaac's fresh score of 20.45%, and the most wanted first party character (unlike Dixie's previous want score, he couldn't pass Crash to be the winner overall).
Your extra noms
Artix
15
Awakining
5
BowserKing
5
Cadillac
10
Calamitas
5
DanganZilla5
15
DaUsername
57
Delzethin
5
GoodGrief741
38
Icedragonadam
10
NintenRob
100
Nemuresu
10
Perkilator
5
Sari
5
Ramen Tengoku
5
Troykv
15
Wunderwaft
10
I have no idea what chance score to give them so I'm gonna abstain on that. Bu
Rex want 98%
I really like Xenoblade 2, it has a lot to offer in terms of stage, music and a likely unique character. I want to see what Sakurai would do with the blade mechanic. 3 songs and a handful of spirits is not enough
Elma want 70%
She'd be cool no doubt, I find the music of X less than desirable for the most part but it's still a shame we don't have have Uncontrollable and that flying song. Much final smash anyone?
Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5
Prediction for tomorrow, pain and misery (4% both)
Rex want 98%
I really like Xenoblade 2, it has a lot to offer in terms of stage, music and a likely unique character. I want to see what Sakurai would do with the blade mechanic. 3 songs and a handful of spirits is not enough
Elma want 70%
She'd be cool no doubt, I find the music of X less than desirable for the most part but it's still a shame we don't have have Uncontrollable and that flying song. Much final smash anyone?
Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5
Prediction for tomorrow, pain and misery (4% both)
- Joined
- Apr 8, 2018
- Messages
- 11,449
- Switch FC
- SW-3204-0809-5605
Elma Fudd
Chance: 1%
And that’s being just a teeny generous. One benefit of the doubt that Sakurai might add her.
Want: Abstain
I’ve never properly played a Xenoblade game. Therefore, I can’t give fair judgement on how much I would want another character from that series.
Captain Rex, execute Order 66
Chance: 40%
Rex’s design wasn’t finalized in 2016, which was when the roster was. Because of this, Sakurai likely couldn’t get early access to XC2 like he did with TH. Therefore, with more time to get a feel of him, there might be an OK chance of seeing Rex (even if not much).
Want: Abstain
Again, I’ve never properly played a Xenoblade game. If I just gave out a 0% just because I want characters like Crash Bandicoot more, I’d make myself look like I’m closing my mind off.
Skull Kid: 5%
Midna: 5%
Noms: Ring Fit Adventurer x5
Chance: 1%
And that’s being just a teeny generous. One benefit of the doubt that Sakurai might add her.
Want: Abstain
I’ve never properly played a Xenoblade game. Therefore, I can’t give fair judgement on how much I would want another character from that series.
Captain Rex, execute Order 66
Chance: 40%
Rex’s design wasn’t finalized in 2016, which was when the roster was. Because of this, Sakurai likely couldn’t get early access to XC2 like he did with TH. Therefore, with more time to get a feel of him, there might be an OK chance of seeing Rex (even if not much).
Want: Abstain
Again, I’ve never properly played a Xenoblade game. If I just gave out a 0% just because I want characters like Crash Bandicoot more, I’d make myself look like I’m closing my mind off.
Skull Kid: 5%
Midna: 5%
Noms: Ring Fit Adventurer x5
Icedragonadam
Smash Master
- Joined
- Jul 16, 2014
- Messages
- 4,093
- Switch FC
- SW-5227-6397-6112
Elma
Chance: 0.01%
Still doubt that characters who are already represented in a non-playable manner will be promoted since it wouldn't benefit Nintendo. Xenoblade X is the black sheep of the franchise as well which hurts too.
Want: 50%
She'd be a nice addition. But unfortunately she has pretty poor timing right now.
Rex
Chance: 1%
Same thing with Rex. Xenoblade Chronicles 2 has representation with spirits and music already. While the only 1st party DLC character Byleth from FE Three Houses had no content from his game prior to his reveal. And I doubt it wouldn't change here. And it also hurts that he was a mii costume bundled with the Fighter's Pass Vol 1.
Want: 65%
In general I do feel Xenoblade should get another rep. But I'm afraid it's too late for another one for this game as all three Xenoblade games already have content represented in Smash already.
Skull Kid Prediction: 2.11%
Midna Prediction: 2.02%
Nominate Darksiders Rep x10
Chance: 0.01%
Still doubt that characters who are already represented in a non-playable manner will be promoted since it wouldn't benefit Nintendo. Xenoblade X is the black sheep of the franchise as well which hurts too.
Want: 50%
She'd be a nice addition. But unfortunately she has pretty poor timing right now.
Rex
Chance: 1%
Same thing with Rex. Xenoblade Chronicles 2 has representation with spirits and music already. While the only 1st party DLC character Byleth from FE Three Houses had no content from his game prior to his reveal. And I doubt it wouldn't change here. And it also hurts that he was a mii costume bundled with the Fighter's Pass Vol 1.
Want: 65%
In general I do feel Xenoblade should get another rep. But I'm afraid it's too late for another one for this game as all three Xenoblade games already have content represented in Smash already.
Skull Kid Prediction: 2.11%
Midna Prediction: 2.02%
Nominate Darksiders Rep x10
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- Joined
- Mar 5, 2019
- Messages
- 2,436
How would promoting/upgrading characters not benefit Nintendo? It would benefit them because...Money. You don't think a character like Waluigi, Rex or Isaac would make money?
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Ridrool64
Smash Lord
Here's the new totals.
Chance Key: Green = Frontrunner (50+%), Blue = Solid Shot (35+%), White is Possible (20+%), Orange is Feasible (10%) and Red is below that, Pipe Dream.
By chance:
Want key: Pink = Community Stars (#FF69B4) [65+%], Brown = Fan Favorites [#8B4513] (60+%), Yellow = Popular (40+%), Purple is Average (25+%), Black is Unpopular (below 25%).
By want:
Chance Pass is the same as last time, but our Want Pass is complete! (Crash Bandicoot, Bandana Dee, Phoenix Wright, Dixie Kong, Lara Croft, and Isaac).
Chance Key: Green = Frontrunner (50+%), Blue = Solid Shot (35+%), White is Possible (20+%), Orange is Feasible (10%) and Red is below that, Pipe Dream.
By chance:
- Ryu Hayabusa: 59.48% Chance
- Crash Bandicoot: 59.26% Chance
- Lloyd Irving: 50.29% Chance
- Dante: 49.38% Chance
- Phoenix Wright: 43.94% Chance
- Geno: 42.50% Chance
- Sora: 40.58% Chance
- Arle Nadja: 39.29% Chance
- Heihachi Mishima: 37.58% Chance
- 2B: 35.41% Chance
- Sol Badguy: 31.00% Chance
- Lara Croft: 29.50% Chance
- Reimu Hakurei: 24.98% Chance
- Bandana Dee: 21.70% Chance
- Isaac: 20.45% Chance
- Waluigi: 19.81% Chance
- Dovahkiin: 19.69% Chance
- Nightmare: 18.74% Chance
- Master Chief: 18.27% Chance
- Dixie Kong: 18.08% Chance
- Tracer: 17.37% Chance
- Ragna the Bloodedge: 14.25% Chance
- Rayman: 11.53% Chance
- Spyro the Dragon: 9.58% Chance
- KOS-MOS: 8.87% Chance
- Neku Sakuraba: 6.46% Chance
- The Knight: 4.62% Chance
- Thrall: 3.07% Chance
- Doomguy: 2.86% Chance
- Vault Boy: 1.82% Chance
- Hat Kid: 0.85% Chance
Want key: Pink = Community Stars (#FF69B4) [65+%], Brown = Fan Favorites [#8B4513] (60+%), Yellow = Popular (40+%), Purple is Average (25+%), Black is Unpopular (below 25%).
By want:
- Crash Bandicoot: 75.78% Want
- Bandana Dee: 74.41% Want
- Phoenix Wright: 70.91% Want
- Dixie Kong: 70.52% Want
- Lara Croft: 69.06% Want
- Isaac: 67.22% Want
- Ryu Hayabusa: 64.32% Want
- Dante: 64.23% Want
- 2B: 64.09% Want
- Geno: 62.93% Want
- Master Chief: 60.94% Want
- Waluigi: 60.75% Want
- Arle Nadja: 60.50% Want
- Reimu Hakurei: 60.05% Want
- Nightmare: 57.27% Want
- Sora: 54.44% Want
- Neku Sakuraba: 53.89% Want
- Heihachi: 53.60% Want
- Rayman: 52.35% Want
- Spyro the Dragon: 52.04% Want
- Sol Badguy: 51.18% Want
- The Knight: 50.12% Want
- Lloyd Irving: 47.85% Want
- Dovahkiin: 47.40% Want
- Doomguy: 44.15% Want
- Ragna the Bloodedge: 37.19% Want
- KOS-MOS: 35.24% Want
- Thrall: 26.50% Want
- Hat Kid: 23.69% Want
- Tracer: 22.73% Want
- Vault Boy: 20.40% Want
Chance Pass is the same as last time, but our Want Pass is complete! (Crash Bandicoot, Bandana Dee, Phoenix Wright, Dixie Kong, Lara Croft, and Isaac).
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
I'd buy the **** out of that want pass.
- Joined
- Mar 5, 2019
- Messages
- 2,436
We would be taking a big L if none of the top 6 characters with the highest chances got in. I'm sure we'll get some of them though.
Day over.
Rate Skull Kid and Midna from the Zelda series.
Predict Rillaboom, Cinderace, and Intelleon from Pokemon Sword/Shield.
Megadoomer
-----
Music Post
Here are some songs to get in the mood for today's characters:
Skull Kid
Midna
I know that last Midna song has almost nothing to do with her, but that won't stop me from using this opportunity to post the best TP song not in Smash.
Rate Skull Kid and Midna from the Zelda series.
Predict Rillaboom, Cinderace, and Intelleon from Pokemon Sword/Shield.
Megadoomer
-----
Music Post
Here are some songs to get in the mood for today's characters:
Skull Kid
Midna
I know that last Midna song has almost nothing to do with her, but that won't stop me from using this opportunity to post the best TP song not in Smash.
warpenguin55
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Aug 20, 2018
- Messages
- 490
Double Abstain. I don't really feel like talking about these 2. If I change my mind later i'll make a new post
Noms: Gnar x5
Noms: Gnar x5
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Skull Kid
Chance: 1%
Skull Kid's assist trophy for Ultimate didn't even get a special reveal; they just quietly announced it on the official Smash website shortly after the November 2018 Direct. That pretty much says all I need to know about how Sakurai views Skull Kid and whether he'd have priority over other assist trophies like Waluigi, Isaac, etc. Despite being a fairly popular Zelda request for Smash, we may not even get another Zelda rep. Even if we do there's a chance they might just add a BotW2 character to promote that game instead.
Want: 75%
Zelda representation in Smash is currently really bad so we need some popular non-Triforce users to fix that. Skull Kid would be a great candidate since Majora's Mask is one of the most beloved games in the series. Also a Clock Town stage would be sick.
-----
Midna
Chance: 1%
Another assist trophy that isn't Waluigi or Isaac. Again I just don't see them adding Midna especially when her support is much less vocal than most of the other assist trophies.
Want: 65%
Midna is a cool character and Twilight Princess is an amazing game despite it being cool to hate on. Like Skull Kid, Midna is definitely one of the best Zelda characters to add that isn't a series regular like Zelda or Ganon.
-----
Chance predictions:
Rillaboom: 12.35%
Cinderace: 10.89%
Intelleon: 4.08%
Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x10
Chance: 1%
Skull Kid's assist trophy for Ultimate didn't even get a special reveal; they just quietly announced it on the official Smash website shortly after the November 2018 Direct. That pretty much says all I need to know about how Sakurai views Skull Kid and whether he'd have priority over other assist trophies like Waluigi, Isaac, etc. Despite being a fairly popular Zelda request for Smash, we may not even get another Zelda rep. Even if we do there's a chance they might just add a BotW2 character to promote that game instead.
Want: 75%
Zelda representation in Smash is currently really bad so we need some popular non-Triforce users to fix that. Skull Kid would be a great candidate since Majora's Mask is one of the most beloved games in the series. Also a Clock Town stage would be sick.
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Midna
Chance: 1%
Another assist trophy that isn't Waluigi or Isaac. Again I just don't see them adding Midna especially when her support is much less vocal than most of the other assist trophies.
Want: 65%
Midna is a cool character and Twilight Princess is an amazing game despite it being cool to hate on. Like Skull Kid, Midna is definitely one of the best Zelda characters to add that isn't a series regular like Zelda or Ganon.
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Chance predictions:
Rillaboom: 12.35%
Cinderace: 10.89%
Intelleon: 4.08%
Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x10
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
These two are really weird to rate, so I'm just gonna go with my gut.
Skull Kid (A Ghost Without a Past)
Chance: 10%
I'd say Skull Kid is, at least as of right now, the most popular Zelda newcomer. That can probably be attributed to his conspicuous absence for most of Ultimate's reveal cycle, coupled with the Moon being an AT, leading many to believe he was in. However I'm not sure how well he did on the Ballot, and with Skull Kid's support fluctuating through the years and never being one of the top dogs of speculation, I think he'd need a good showing in the Ballot to truly be in play.
I guess demand for a Zelda newcomer in general is very high, and so, like Castlevania, that could get Sakurai to pick a character from the series to satisfy the whole group (here's hoping he doesn't consider Young Link to be that character because hoo boy). But I think that Sakurai just (erroneously) thinks Zelda representation is complete with just the main trio. So I'm not seeing a Zelda character getting in.
Want: 100%
We need more Zelda characters. No question. With how many memorable and iconic characters show up in them, it's stupid to believe that they aren't a crucial part of the series that shouldn't be represented.
And nowhere can you see that more clearly than with Skull Kid. One of the most iconic Zelda characters, with the Mask being famous iconography. He's probably the most iconic Zelda villain that isn't Ganon. I think Skull Kid would be a great character to have as a fighter, you can get really weird and dark with him. And it'd be much better than his dumb AT.
Beast Rider
Chance: 8%
Skull Kid has the upper hand because he's more popular. I don't think this is a situation where relevance helps much.
Want: 100%
Midna's my preferred Zelda newcomer. This imp would have a super fun moveset, using her hair as giant fists and maybe even riding a giant wolf. What's not to like?
Noms: Kiryu x5
Rillaboom prediction: 11%
Cinderace prediction: 6.22%
Intelleon prediction: 1.5%
Skull Kid (A Ghost Without a Past)
Chance: 10%
I'd say Skull Kid is, at least as of right now, the most popular Zelda newcomer. That can probably be attributed to his conspicuous absence for most of Ultimate's reveal cycle, coupled with the Moon being an AT, leading many to believe he was in. However I'm not sure how well he did on the Ballot, and with Skull Kid's support fluctuating through the years and never being one of the top dogs of speculation, I think he'd need a good showing in the Ballot to truly be in play.
I guess demand for a Zelda newcomer in general is very high, and so, like Castlevania, that could get Sakurai to pick a character from the series to satisfy the whole group (here's hoping he doesn't consider Young Link to be that character because hoo boy). But I think that Sakurai just (erroneously) thinks Zelda representation is complete with just the main trio. So I'm not seeing a Zelda character getting in.
Want: 100%
We need more Zelda characters. No question. With how many memorable and iconic characters show up in them, it's stupid to believe that they aren't a crucial part of the series that shouldn't be represented.
And nowhere can you see that more clearly than with Skull Kid. One of the most iconic Zelda characters, with the Mask being famous iconography. He's probably the most iconic Zelda villain that isn't Ganon. I think Skull Kid would be a great character to have as a fighter, you can get really weird and dark with him. And it'd be much better than his dumb AT.
Beast Rider
Chance: 8%
Skull Kid has the upper hand because he's more popular. I don't think this is a situation where relevance helps much.
Want: 100%
Midna's my preferred Zelda newcomer. This imp would have a super fun moveset, using her hair as giant fists and maybe even riding a giant wolf. What's not to like?
Noms: Kiryu x5
Rillaboom prediction: 11%
Cinderace prediction: 6.22%
Intelleon prediction: 1.5%
Jomosensual
Smash Champion
- Joined
- Aug 13, 2018
- Messages
- 2,014
Do it anyways. Most of the characters I nom get 0s but I want to see them on here because they're still big names or I just want them to get rated.
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
I remember when I nominated Kyle Hyde for months. I was pleasantly surprised with how many people were down with the idea, even if just a little bit. You should go for it.
DrifloonEmpire
Smash Champion
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2019
- Messages
- 2,233
Skull Kid
Chance: 10% - It could honestly happen. One of the issues surrounding Zelda demand is that they're not rallying around a single character (ala DK with K Rool and now Dixie), but of all of the characters proposed he seems like the most likely. Absent during the prerelease period, Moon is an assist, and out of all Zelda options he has the most demand. It really hinges on whether or not Sakurai wants to add another Zelda character, since they haven't gotten a newcomer since Brawl. There's also the lack of recency for Skull Kid, but fan demand can be enough to make up for it. There's no doubt that he had a strong showing during the ballot days, so hopefully it's caught his attention.
Want: 50% - I've never played Majora's Mask, but I love the game's concept and am really hoping to see Zelda get another rep soon. Unlike other series (looking at you, Fire Emblem), Zelda is a household name and one of Nintendo's biggest franchises, yet on the character side of things it hasn't gotten a lot of love. It really needs a new character outside of the main trio, and Skull Kid would be a rep that brings a lot to the table. Plus he'd be a way more interesting representative for the N64 games than Young Link.
Midna
Chance: 5% - Probably the second most requested non-BoTW Zelda character, Midna's got a nice healthy fanbase, though not quite as healthy as Skull Kid. While she also has the issue of recency, Twilight Princess HD did get to have a connection to Breath of the Wild via the Wolf Link Amiibo, and Wolf Link himself appears in-game, so she does have a spark of relevance there. But for the same reasons as Skull Kid, her chances aren't too likely. If Nintendo's gonna do a first party pick, it'll more than likely be promotional (which more than likely means Fire Emblem. No, Modern FE fans, salt is not something you should be preaching for), which means she more than likely won't be chosen...
Want: 50% - ...which is a shame because a duo of her and Wolf Link have so much moveset potential. We have yet to see a mounted/animal riding character in Smash, and her small size means that she wouldn't have the problem Ridley originally had. She could pull off all sorts of crafty things, along with Wolf Link giving her powerful melee attacks and speed. And of course, like above, I think Zelda more than deserves a new unique rep.
Nominations:
Bubsy x5
Predictions:
Rillaboom: 18.35%
Cinderace: 10.94%
Intelleon: 4.86%
Chance: 10% - It could honestly happen. One of the issues surrounding Zelda demand is that they're not rallying around a single character (ala DK with K Rool and now Dixie), but of all of the characters proposed he seems like the most likely. Absent during the prerelease period, Moon is an assist, and out of all Zelda options he has the most demand. It really hinges on whether or not Sakurai wants to add another Zelda character, since they haven't gotten a newcomer since Brawl. There's also the lack of recency for Skull Kid, but fan demand can be enough to make up for it. There's no doubt that he had a strong showing during the ballot days, so hopefully it's caught his attention.
Want: 50% - I've never played Majora's Mask, but I love the game's concept and am really hoping to see Zelda get another rep soon. Unlike other series (looking at you, Fire Emblem), Zelda is a household name and one of Nintendo's biggest franchises, yet on the character side of things it hasn't gotten a lot of love. It really needs a new character outside of the main trio, and Skull Kid would be a rep that brings a lot to the table. Plus he'd be a way more interesting representative for the N64 games than Young Link.
Midna
Chance: 5% - Probably the second most requested non-BoTW Zelda character, Midna's got a nice healthy fanbase, though not quite as healthy as Skull Kid. While she also has the issue of recency, Twilight Princess HD did get to have a connection to Breath of the Wild via the Wolf Link Amiibo, and Wolf Link himself appears in-game, so she does have a spark of relevance there. But for the same reasons as Skull Kid, her chances aren't too likely. If Nintendo's gonna do a first party pick, it'll more than likely be promotional (which more than likely means Fire Emblem. No, Modern FE fans, salt is not something you should be preaching for), which means she more than likely won't be chosen...
Want: 50% - ...which is a shame because a duo of her and Wolf Link have so much moveset potential. We have yet to see a mounted/animal riding character in Smash, and her small size means that she wouldn't have the problem Ridley originally had. She could pull off all sorts of crafty things, along with Wolf Link giving her powerful melee attacks and speed. And of course, like above, I think Zelda more than deserves a new unique rep.
Nominations:
Bubsy x5
Predictions:
Rillaboom: 18.35%
Cinderace: 10.94%
Intelleon: 4.86%
DaUsername
Smash Ace
- Joined
- Aug 6, 2013
- Messages
- 910
- Location
- In that corner over there
- NNID
- DaUsername
- Switch FC
- SW-1418-0536-1998
Okay, I had a whole thing typed out for today, but when I hit post it erased most of it, WTF happened?
Last edited:
Louie G.
Smash Hero
SKULL KID & MIDNA
CHANCE: 1% EACH
I'll lump these two together because their situations are pretty much the same. Zelda is in dire need of a new character, but that doesn't mean it's going to get one. In my eyes these two are the best candidates, they're both a couple of the most popular / iconic Zelda characters whose prominence doesn't stray far beyond one game (Majora's Mask and Twilight Princess, obviously). While these two have had notable fan support over the years, it was clearly not enough to get them beyond AT just yet. If you ask me, Skull Kid probably should have been on the base roster but that's neither here nor there.
There's just no real reason to do this right now. If we get any first party characters I believe they're going to fall under two categories. You either have a character with massive fan support, or (more likely) a character from a recent title that Nintendo wants to promote. Unless we're getting a Majora's Mask or Twilight Princess port / remake on Switch, which I doubt, these two don't really have much going for them right now. They're popular, but not as popular as Waluigi or Bandana Dee if we're taking into account first parties who could be carried by fan demand.
And uh, of course, they're also Assist Trophies. The aforementioned Waluigi would likely take precedent over them and pretty much every other AT. Sad but true.
SKULL KID WANT: 90%
MIDNA WANT: ...also 90%
I really like these two, if you couldn't tell by my assessment I'm pretty disappointed that neither of them stand much of a chance. I think they'd both be great additions toward a series that desperately needs something new. Skull Kid was a character I felt to be pretty likely for the base roster, so I was surprised to see him nonchalantly dropped onto the website as an Assist Trophy again. I mean, why not at least combine him and The Moon to have him summon it crashing down? I don't get this decision, I really don't. But I feel like Skull Kid is actually one of the most iconic Nintendo characters not yet playable, probably the biggest name out of the one-shot Zelda villains, I really do think he's earned it and would be a lot of fun.
Midna I didn't have as high of hopes for, but I like her for uh... several reasons. Just as long as she's imp Midna as she should be. She'd be a great inclusion.
PREDICTIONS:
CINDERACE - 27.50%
RILLABOOM - 22.00%
INTELLEON - 7.80%
NOMINATIONS - TRAVIS TOUCHDOWN x5 - Who else would it be?
CHANCE: 1% EACH
I'll lump these two together because their situations are pretty much the same. Zelda is in dire need of a new character, but that doesn't mean it's going to get one. In my eyes these two are the best candidates, they're both a couple of the most popular / iconic Zelda characters whose prominence doesn't stray far beyond one game (Majora's Mask and Twilight Princess, obviously). While these two have had notable fan support over the years, it was clearly not enough to get them beyond AT just yet. If you ask me, Skull Kid probably should have been on the base roster but that's neither here nor there.
There's just no real reason to do this right now. If we get any first party characters I believe they're going to fall under two categories. You either have a character with massive fan support, or (more likely) a character from a recent title that Nintendo wants to promote. Unless we're getting a Majora's Mask or Twilight Princess port / remake on Switch, which I doubt, these two don't really have much going for them right now. They're popular, but not as popular as Waluigi or Bandana Dee if we're taking into account first parties who could be carried by fan demand.
And uh, of course, they're also Assist Trophies. The aforementioned Waluigi would likely take precedent over them and pretty much every other AT. Sad but true.
SKULL KID WANT: 90%
MIDNA WANT: ...also 90%
I really like these two, if you couldn't tell by my assessment I'm pretty disappointed that neither of them stand much of a chance. I think they'd both be great additions toward a series that desperately needs something new. Skull Kid was a character I felt to be pretty likely for the base roster, so I was surprised to see him nonchalantly dropped onto the website as an Assist Trophy again. I mean, why not at least combine him and The Moon to have him summon it crashing down? I don't get this decision, I really don't. But I feel like Skull Kid is actually one of the most iconic Nintendo characters not yet playable, probably the biggest name out of the one-shot Zelda villains, I really do think he's earned it and would be a lot of fun.
Midna I didn't have as high of hopes for, but I like her for uh... several reasons. Just as long as she's imp Midna as she should be. She'd be a great inclusion.
PREDICTIONS:
CINDERACE - 27.50%
RILLABOOM - 22.00%
INTELLEON - 7.80%
NOMINATIONS - TRAVIS TOUCHDOWN x5 - Who else would it be?