Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[DrifloonEmpire]

Light mode?

seriously i can barely read it

I use light mode and normally the text is MUCH darker than that. I have no idea what could've happened there.
Also people give light themes too much flak. When did 90% of the internet suddenly develop vampire eyes?


Now for the ratings!


Dixie Kong

Chance: 30% - First party characters that aren't shill picks are in a bizarre spot right now. We don't know what the approach of the second pass will be, whether they go for heavy hitter third parties and promotional picks (god help us if another FE game is announced) or if Sakurrai will use these extra slots to implement some fan favorites. After the addition of King K. Rool, Dixie has definitely gained a boatload of momentum as the new DK frontrunner. With Nintendo wanting to bring back some Rare magic with Banjo and K. Rool, along with their newfound partnership with Microsoft, things are looking bright. Now obviously she's now wholly owned by Nintendo and has appeared in recent DK games, but she was created by Rare so she kinda has that momentum. It really depends on whether or not Sakurai wants to add another DK character, and her only real competition would be Cranky Kong or a Funky Kong echo. But Nintendo has definitely taken notice of her growing fan demand, something that's definitely eclipsed Cranky and Funky.

Furthermore is the strange lack of Tropical Freeze content, or modern DKC content as a whole. The stage based on Returns was removed in this game (likely due to stage transitions), and while DK has four stages it represents nothing past the 90's. Rumble Falls wasn't brought back and what we have is two Rareware DKC-based stages, the generic Kongo Jungle, and 75m for Arcade DK. Dk still makes Nintendo a lot of money and there's definitely a benefit to representing the modern games. Dixie could easily come with Tropical Freeze content (her first playable main game appearance in a long time), which covers Modern DK and promotes the Switch port of Tropical Freeze as a bonus. She can also save a bit of development time by pulling some hitbox data and a couple of moves from Diddy, which definitely adds to hear appeal from a financial standpoint. And if she's not DLC then I see her as a frontrunner for Smash 6, so either way Dixie's got a bright future ahead of her!

Want: 100% - Had a blast with the original DKC games and the two modern ones, and was absolutely thrilled with K. Rool joined the roster. The modern DK games have some of the most creative ideas I've ever seen in a platformer, so seeing it get more representation in Smash is always a plus! Plus Dixie is super fun to use in Tropical Freeze and has a lot of moveset potential, I think she'd make for a wonderful addition!


Bandana Waddle Dee

Chance: 25% - The Kirby frontrunner, he's in he same situation Dixie is in, and like the DK series Modern Kirby isn't well represented in Smash. Making his first playable appearance in Returns to Dreamland, he'd represent the era perfectly, and would come with an excellent stage and fantastic music. Plus there's Star Allies which Bandana Dee is in, which makes for an easy promotional tie-in as well. The modern Kirby games are also known for their in-depth movesets for copy abilities, and Bandana Dee uses a permanent version of Spear Kirby's moveset, so the moveset ideas are practically already done, saving time in the process!

The big obstacle for Bandana Dee (outside of what Dixie also faces) is Sakurai's view of the Kirby series. While content from 64 and Modern era Kirby games slowly accumulates in Smash, he seems to only desire content from what I'd call the "Sakurai Four" (Kirby's Adventure, Kirby's Dreamland, Kirby Super Star, and Kirby Air Ride). 90% of Kirby content in Smash comes from those four games, and because of this I doubt Sakurai will show much desire to add him. While he technically originates in Super Star, his main claim to fame is the modern games, which gives him an unfortunate (and honestly unfair) disadvantage. Though, fan demand got other "written off by Sakurai" characters into the game like Ridley, so it may eventually force Sakurai to change his mind. It's also now confirmed that Nintendo chooses the characters, and if they see the money in Bandana Dee they could definitely persuade Sakurai.

Want: 100% - I love the Kirby series and Returns to Dreamland was one of my favorites of all time. The fun gameplay, well-designed levels, in-depth copy abilities, and fantastic music, I would love to see this represented in Smash! And what better way than with Bandana Waddle Dee? He's got a cute design and a fun moveset (in fact, Spear was one of my favorite abilities in the game!), and with no characters with a spear-based moveset I think he's got a good niche to fill as well! And like many have said, Kirby deserves a new rep. He's still very successful yet hasn't gotten a newcomer since Brawl. Kirby has a long and storied history, he deserve to have more of it represented in Smash.


Nominations:
Bubsy x5

Predictions:
Rex - 24.76%
Elma - 28.56% (people are gonna overrate her for sure)

 

[I.D.]

Chance for both: 0%

They are already represented in the game. The content they could bring is harder to pinpoint. No games for them to shill in the horizon.

Want for both: 25%

I don't dislike the characters but I don't particularly care for them either. The DK and Kirby characters I prefer are already playable in the game.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Wanya
Chance: 33%
A bit biased but not without reason.
I'll repeat that I don't believe in base game Spirits still being a death sentence currently and also that I don't think the new pass will be drastically different from the first.

FP1 ended on FE which does mean first-parties were never off the table, so I'm expecting atleast one more volume 2. Many think that spot would likely go to a SwSh Mon. I would've agreed with that if it weren't for that inconveniently timed Spirit event, which gives me serious doubts of that game getting a playable rep. With that out of the way, does Bandana Dee have what it takes to be chosen by Nintendo? Imo, it's likelier than many would think.

Kirby, as a series has thrived over the years and, as a brand has bloomed in Japan and Bandana Dee is a fan favourite over there, even earning himself some merch. In a speculation scene with Third-parties dominating, BWD is still doing pretty well there. (yeah, it's been a long time since the ballot but I have a theory it's not the only time they listened to fan requests if anybody's interested) He has also basically cemented his presence in the series at this point and likely isn't leaving anytime soon. Not everybody is a fan of him, obviously, but I still think his overall popularity eclipses the dislike for him (which seems to mostly come from the west so that won't matter). I think most people would just be neutral at worst towards him honestly. I see enough visual appeal in him to consider him a viable character to sell as DLC.

Would he make for a good challenger pack tho? Kirby's already represented but since our last character was FE I don't why not. Different situation, I know but with how much modern Kirby stuff got neglected, there's more than enough material to work with. Take an interesting local from any of the last 4 main games, make some spirits out of characters/bosses that weren't represented already, remix some music and they'd be done. A bit reaching and forced sure, but not impossible. Sakurai might be indifferent but I don't think he'd be the guy to veto against a character for those reasons.

Would he have competition? I have already said I believe Pokémon is out of the running, and by that logic so is Astral Chain. Xenoblade is also not in an optimal position. It also feels way to soon for any BotW2 character. The only characters I'd see being some threat to him are Ring Fit, some mobile character (grimaces) and Waluigi unironically.

So overall, fairly possible. Not a guarantee but a character I can picture under the right conditions.

Want: 100%
The characters I want the most are usually the ones I spent the most time writing about. Anyway, Bandana Dee is a good lad. He'd be fun to play. He would bring some overdue Modern Kirby stuff with him. And at this point, I want him to see the people calling him Hat Goomba to get dunked on.

Shoulda been a base game echo honestly
Chance: 1%
See above. Sorry but Dixie screams "Ken-like echo" to me and that ship has sailed for those types of fighters at this point.

Besides that, I gave Bandana Dee every benefit of the doubt but she doesn't share any positives with him despite arguably being in the same boat. For starters, she just isn't as popular in my eyes, making her a harder sell for DLC. The demand for her has dwindled significantly since Ultimate's release. As opposed to Dee who just has a large amount of Japanese fans to back on.

More importantly, DKC isn't in a good position rn. Tropical Freeze released in early 2014, that's a six year gap ignoring the Switch port. A new game isn't happening soon with the current state of Retro studios. Kirby on the other hand has been getting games left and right.

When there are multiple other bigger characters available, I don't see Dixie being chosen sadly.

Want: 50%
I won't lose sleep over her not being included. I do feel bad for her tho. They had the perfect opportunity to put her in yet it didn't happen. It's kinda strange to me that Dark Samus got in before her.

Rex: 41.75%
Elma: 18.95%
Reporter and wrestler x5

 

[JCKirbs]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 15%
I personally think that 1st Party DLC is still kind of in a rough spot, even after the inclusion of Byleth. Also, the DKC series already got a full-fledged rep in the base roster of Ultimate (K. Rool), so I doubt that they'd wanted to push more promotion for the DKC series unless it's not too late to bundle Dixie with some more Tropical Freeze representation. If not Tropical Freeze, I personally believe that the chances of a brand new DKC game being currently in the works are pretty slim. Granted, I would like to happily be proven wrong if this means that Dixie could promote that game (given that she's a playable character or something). Overall, there really isn't much I could point to in order to have more confidence that she could be more plausible for DLC than she already is.

Want: 90%
I've never been a super-fan of Dixie Kong, nor a primary advocate for her inclusion, but every time I think about her I wonder... Why isn't she in Smash yet?
Her level of importance towers over the likes of Cranky Kong, Funky Kong, or the ever-so-stylish Swanky Kong, and she has been with the Donkey Kong Country series since the 2nd entry. She's fun, peppy, and just as memorable as the other DK reps that are currently in Smash as of now. Not to mention that I'd be perfectly fine with more DKC representation entering the world of Smash (considering that K. Rool brought next to nothing with him, like pretty much all of the base newcomers aside from the Belmonts). Overall, as the days go by, it's pretty strange that we're still living in a world that doesn't have Dixie Kong in Smash.


My Precious Bandana Dee

Chance: 25%
Similarly to Dixie, Bandana Dee's chances are also still unfortunately low. For some reason he missed the base roster, and now he is practically forced to be compared to the level of amazement that would come from including 3rd Parties instead. The only reason(s) that I'd rate his chances slightly over Dixie is that Kirby hasn't gotten a single rep since Brawl, so someone like Bandana Dee would hardly be something to scoff at in that sense. Also, new Kirby games are still frequently in development, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the announcement of a new entry fairly soon. If not, Star Allies could still potentially be utilized since it's the newest non-port entry into the series (but perhaps Nintendo/Sakurai would want to opt for something newer, regardless).

Even then, perhaps that's just a small spark of optimism speaking, because it's clear that the Kirby series could easily be tossed away like nothing for the rest of the DLC.

Want: 100%, or as high as the percentage can rise.
The current state of Kirby representation in Smash is absolutely pitiful, but that's not even the primary reason why I want him in Smash.
I have advocated time and time again for Bandana Dee's time to shine in the wonderful world of Smash. Even with the verbal and visual beatings that the Smash Community has thrown at him, nothing in the slightest has deterred me from supporting him. I used to want him in merely because he'd complete the "Defenders of Dream Land" team established in 2011. But as time went on, I began to appreciate him more and more as a character. He basically encompasses everything that I admire out of a character like him. At face-value, he's not the most dazzling, exciting or extremely interesting Kirby character, (or a character in general) but he still completely pierces through the idea that he's just a basic, normal, generic character who just happens to look a bit more different than the rest of his species. That's basically his character arc, becoming a strong, fierce warrior and the sole representative of Waddle Dee kind. I don't think that there's a Smash candidate exactly like that, and that's basically what makes him special in my view. Joining Smash would be the Ultimate reward that he his gone without for far too long. A reward for his courage, determination, and differentiation from otherwise being a simple, carefree being of Dream Land.

 

[BowserKing]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 25%. First of all, she is quite a commonly requested character. Second of all, since King K.Rool got in, the chance of Dixie Kong getting in is higher. Third of all, her debut game is quite popular, and her appearance in Tropical Freeze helps her chances out too. Competition would be bit of a concern, but she has a big chance of appearing in the game, even if she would most likely be an Echo-Fighter.

Want: 100%. She is one of my most wanted Echo-Fighters, as well as fighters overall. I think she would be very fun to play as, with her Bubble gum Popgun being her Neutral Special, Guitar as her down special and her hair being used as her up special (like a propeller) and her grabs and throws, giving her a unique moveset, while sharing some with Diddy Kong. I think she would be a worthy addition to the roaster, and a fun moveset, and being a new echo to bring variety to the roaster.

Bandanna Dee

Chance: 25%. Bandanna Dee is quite a requested character, and he has some chances of appearing. One reason is because he is from Kirby, and we need another Kirby rep (We technically did get a new Kirby rep in the form of Dark Meta Knight, but he is an alternate costume). Competition is still and issue, but he could have a chance.

Want: 100%. Bandanna Dee would be fun to play as, with a spear user being unique. I can already a few round ideas, including a fight against Piranha Plant, and a Kirby free for all with Kirby, King Dedede and Meta Knight. Bandanna Dee would be a worthy addition to the roaster, because a model of a Waddle Dee is in the game, and all we need to do is use that model, give it a few changes and a moveset, and ta da, instant fighter. It saves time and work that way.

Prediction: Rex (10%) and Elma (15%)

Noms: 2 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion and 3 for Concept: Second F-Zero Rep

 

[11th]

Busy. Will finish Dixie and general cleanup later. Hopefully this day is calmer than the last...


Bandana Waddle Dee (Re-re-re-rate) (Original Post / Re-Rate #1 / Re-Rate #2)

Spoiler

Chance: 4% (1/25) (↑2%) - Given that the second pass was decided well after Ultimate released, I no longer see base game spirits as an issue. It's also confirmed that something is brewing for the Kirby series, as HAL was hiring new staff specifically for it back in September and October. With HAL's trend of releasing new main games every 2-3 years, and Star Allies having wrapped up DLC in November 2018, it's seems fair to assume that the next game will release between late 2020 to 2021, which would line up well with the pass.

And yet, I can't help but remain cautious... Pessimistic, even. Does Nintendo feel like Kirby is a series worth promoting? It has always been very "stable", but that could be seen as a pro or a con. If they do want to promote it, would they pick Bandana Dee, or someone else? I suppose the main issue there is whether or not the Kirby next game will include him in some major role again, or if he'll fall back into a more supporting role as he did in Triple Deluxe and Planet Robobot. There's also the way that Kirby has been treated in the past two Smash games, with Dream Land 1, Adventure, and Super Star getting most of the focus, but that may be less of an issue if Nintendo is choosing the pass.

All in all, I would probably place the Kirby series itself as ~10% (1/10) for a slot on the pass out of first party picks, and Dee as the most likely pick for the series, but that's not enough to give him a huge boost compared to my last rating.

Want: 100% (→0%) - How badly do I want him, you may ask? At this point, I would honestly accept an Assist Trophy, Mii hat, or even a quick cameo in Dedede's animations. Anything beyond being one of ~1400 .pngs... Please just recognize his existence, Nintendo and/or Mr. Sakurai. He's a good apple boyo.

Dixie Kong (Re-re-rate) (Original Post / Re-Rate #1)
Chance: 2% (1/50) (↓1.125%) - Note: Last rating was before we had seen Joker, so it was a bit higher than it would have been if we had rated her after. That's literally the only reason why her rating has seemingly dropped. That aside, the big concerns I have are that, while not unpopular, she has never been a "huge" request due to K. Rool taking the spotlight for DKC. While I've heard rumors of something coming, we also have no confirmation of a new DKC being in development.
Want: 45% (↑5%) - I kind of want to save 50%+ for my active wants (even if there aren't many currently), but I do still like her and think that she has definitely earned her spot in history. The least I can do is bump her up a bit as my most wanted "passive" character.


Skipping noms for now. May or may not add them later.

 

[Pinguino21v]

Dixie
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

BWD
Chance: 15%
He has a really strong fanbase, especially in Japan. He, Waluigi and Rex are the top contenders for newcomers of existing series without a new entry coming. If it happens.
Want: 0%

Rex: 25%
Elma: 15%

 

[InASnowBoundLand]

Dixie Kong:
Chance: 100%
Want: 100%

She is called the last Nintendo All Star for a reason. And unlike most characters rated, you will actually be able to meet her in real life at Universal Studio's Donkey Kong attraction. You may even be able to buy her beret at the gift shop. Dixie Kong will continue to be a major part of the DK series and will likely be a main playable character in the next DK game, which may come out soon and coincide with the 2nd fighters pass. She is a cool character with a great design and numerous abilities that could make her a fun and unique fighter in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Dixie Kong:
Chance: 100%
Want: 100%

She is called the last Nintendo All Star for a reason. And unlike most characters rated, you will actually be able to meet her in real life at Universal Studio's Donkey Kong attraction. You may even be able to buy her beret at the gift shop. Dixie Kong will continue to be a major part of the DK series and will likely be a main playable character in the next DK game, which may come out soon and coincide with the 2nd fighters pass. She is a cool character with a great design and numerous abilities that could make her a fun and unique fighter in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate.

Universal has a Donkey Kong attraction?

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Universal has a Donkey Kong attraction?

It will. It's one of the confirmed sections for the Super Nintendo World Park that will be opening in the Universal Studio locations in Japan, Orlando, Hollywood, and Singapore in the next decade or so.

 

[Ridrool64]

I'm gonna pretend no new Kirby/DK games are coming out between now and 2022.

No more monkey business? No, more monkey business!

Chance: 15%. Dixie was once one of the big two contenders for a Donkey Kong representative... back in base game. Then King K. Rool happened and we all know how that went down. But she became a popular Echo request, but once Isabelle showed up she underwent a split between people who wanted her as an Echo and people who wanted her to have her own spot. Ultimately she ended up as neither in the base game. Instead, she sits as one of the special spirits that can be enhanced.

On paper, a Spirit, especially one from the base game, stands a better chance than Assists, because they're not even on the battlefield, right? Except I don't think of Dixie as having stuff to show off. But I'm not sure about that. While her fandom never quit, Dixie overall hasn't had the legendary push Waluigi got, for example. I am torn on if base-game content matters nor not, but right now I believe it doesn't. But it could. And even if it did... she doesn't have the fan demand push of Waluigi, Bandana Dee, or Rex, even. Dixie, right now, feels like somebody who might have to wait for next time, if there even is one, and if there's room for her. There's also the issue of Challenger Pack content; like Waluigi, while a stage and music would be easy, Spirits is going to be difficult.

Want: 50%. Yeah I don't quite care about Dixie as much as most others here. Definitely more interested in third parties. Still, she would only make the game better for being there in the fray.

Octorok with a headband

Chance: 20%. Now, Bandana Dee is somebody who I'm thinking stands a chance, but he goes behind Waluigi. In general, though, Bandana Dee is one of the most popular Japanese fan requests, and I'd actually wager the same of the west, defo being near the top of most regions. But... he couldn't make it so many other times, despite seeming so likely. I don't know WHY that is, but I think the issue here is that Bandana Dee... well, I don't know what it is. Maybe it's just a gut feeling. But individually I think he competes with too many people, as a Nintendo rep, a Kirby rep, a modern Kirby rep, and even a Spirit promotion. His Spirit being the evolved form of a base Waddle Dee may also be an indicator of what Sakurai thinks of him, as simply a fancier Waddle Dee. With that in mind, I wouldn't be too surprised if he misses the boat again.

Want: 40%. I'm actually bigger on the idea of most other Kirby characters, like Adeleine, Gooey, and even something like Susie when it comes to modern Kirby in particular. I kinda prefer how they are totally new designs to the world of Kirby. That being said, Bandana Dee has definitely earned his spot, and would make enough people happy that I wouldn't really care.

Rex is going to be controversial. Does his Mii Costume count as a DLC one? 12.40%. Elma is probably going to get high marks because for some reason Rook is never brought up. 17.76%.

Paper Mario x 5. Tempted to go DLC Music today, but I think I want to wait for Paper Mario's day.

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstaining on Dixie cause I honestly don't have a solid estimate on her. Dee tho...

Our Bandana Clad Boi

Chance:75%: Easily the likeliest first party IMO, due to his immense popularity. He's the most popular character in Japan, and is one of the fan favorites here in the States. As well, Kirby has a lot of content missing and is a big franchise that could easily get another rep. Dee is also the biggest Kirby character not in Smash and the fourth main character alongsides Kirby, King Dedede, and Meta Knight.
Want: HELL YES: I NEED HIM IN SMASH. NOW.

Alright on a serious note, Dee is my most wanted that has a shot. (Shadow's dead unless FP3 happens). And a spear wielder would be great, with him having a huge moveset in Star Allies that combined with Parasol and Beam and the Elemental abilities could make him very unique and fun to play as.
Also, he could bring back Waddle Dee Army as a Final Smash. Need I have more justification? (Honestly would give him a 100% for Waddle Dee Army alone)

Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5

 

[amageish]

As I said before the Waluigi/Isaac ratings, I do not think being a part of base game content directly hurts your odds, with the problem being if you can't provide new stages/spirits easily. I will also add now that I don't think Sakurai would be thinking about anyone "getting their chance another day" at this time, given how much he's been stressing his disinterest in thinking about sequels right now.

Dixie Kong:

Chance: 20%
So, the third protagonist of the DK franchise. Her problem, as others have stated, is that giving her a full spirit pack and stage would be... relatively challenging. There are spirits you could add, including quite a few enemies from the DK Returns titles, and you could probably fill a Banjo-sized spirit board with them, but I think it would end of looking very obviously like they were throwing together a spirit board just for the sake of completing the DLC requirements. A new DK game set in a relatively-new setting being announced within the two years would provide an easy excuse to add her in though.

Want Score: 75%
I like Dixie. I like her moveset. Her guitar is cool. If she gets in, I'd be pretty happy.

Bandana Dee:

Chance: 25%
So, the fourth protagonist of the Kirby franchise. I'm giving him slightly higher odds then Dixie Kong because of Sakurai's historical tendency to focus on the older Kirby titles. While this could go against him if Sakurai had some sort of moral objection to modern Kirby biasing its relative exclusion, I think it would actually make representing Bandana Dee fairly simple, as including a stage and a spirit board based on Kirby Star Allies would feel unique from all of the other Kirby content by default. I would also be very shocked if there wasn't a new Kirby game between now and Winter 2021.

Want Score: 40%
Kirby Star Allies provides a blueprint for how basically every Kirby character would play in Smash and, frankly, most of the other characters are more fun to me. Bandana Dee is adorable, but a bit too vanilla for my subjective taste in Dream Friends.

 

[NintenRob]

Ooooof, this is a hard one.

Let me start by saying I think both of these characters SHOULD be in. They're major players in their respective franchise and in many ways would make their franchises feel complete in terms of representation. Especially in terms of songs and stages they would bring. But for whatever reason none of them are playable yet. And it doesn't help that every character from fighter pass 1 were all the central characters of the game they're from (I know Dixie Kong was the star of her own game ages ago, but that was ages ago). It's just hard to really grasp what we're getting for fighter pass 2. But I'll try my best with scores

Chance 35% for Bandana Dee
36% for Dixie Kong

They're in pretty similar situations, obviously songs and stages would likely be from more modern entries of their franchises (both of which are extremely lacking right now). Tropical Freeze and either Return to Dreamland or Star Allies. Or maybe something entirely new for Kirby. Dixie is slightly higher because there is a minute chance they do some bonus echoes and she's one of them.

Want 100% Bandana Dee
Bandana Dee is my number 2 most wanted, I have no idea why he's not playable yet. It's stupid. I will always prefer first party characters. Nintendo is why I love Smash Bros, I don't want then to abandon the Nintendo stars still remaining

Dixie want: 95%
I see her as essential, that's why I want her. I don't really care if she's unique or an echo. I just think she should be in. I want to go back and finish Tropical Freeze but what I've played is phenomenal and it's a crime the we have no stage and minimal music from that game.

Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5

Xenoblade prediction 17% both

 

[GoodGrief741]

I'm currently working on the noms list and calcs. Meant to post them earlier, sorry for the lateness.

What content can she even bring? She would need a spirit board, we already have a ton of DK spirits. She would need a new stage, which may or may not be a problem, idk if there is an option for one or not.

Check my post, I talk about how easy it would be to have content for Dixie and Dee.

What I'm thinking is the biggest blow against her is that she would need a completely unique moveset. Dixie Kong has always been speculated as being a semi clone/echo of Diddy Kong.

Uh, no she isn't. At most, some are okay with seeing her as an Echo. But many aren't. She could easily be unique too, so that's not really a hurdle for DLC.

Shadow's dead unless FP3 happens

What changes between now and an FP3 that would allow Shadow to happen then but not now? If you think ATs are still disconfirmed for FP2, they'll still be disconfirmed for FP3.

 

[P47]

For the record I don't think being a spirit affects the probability of being a FP2 DLC character.

Dixie Kong
Chance: 10%
More of a gut feeling but I just don't see it happening this time around. If Nintendo wants another DK character, she'll be the one 100% but I think that's a decent if. She's had a following for quite a while though so anything can happen.

Want: 75%
Not clamoring for her but I would have 0 complaints. Shame she didn't make it in Brawl. Also I should really play some DK games

Bandee
Chance: 25%
Bandana Dee has almost everything going for him. Extremely high popularity (especially in Japan), very relevant (prominent role in a crap ton of games last decade), and he's a main character in one of Nintendo's best selling franchises. Key word though is almost and the things he doesn't have going for him brutal.

1. The Smash Team does not care about non-Sakurai Kirby games. It's one thing to be biased towards the games Sakurai developed, it's another to neglect the ones he didn't.
   • 0 remixes of Kumazaki Kirby. Very few of the others (Shimomura, Flagship, etc)
   • Not nearly enough music in general (which is a travesty cuz Kirby music is incredible)
     • Robobot and Star Allies, the 2 most recent mainline games have a combined 3 songs.
   • 0 stages
   • 0 Assist Trophies
   • 0 Mii Costumes (not even a blue bandana)
   • Missing spirits of a lot of main characters, notable villains, recurring enemies
     • Including an entire mainline game in Kirby 64
2. Nintendo doesn't seem all that interested in advertising Kirby to the west (and by extension: western Nintendo fans don't seem all that interested in Kirby). This is purely anecdotal but I feel like Kirby gets overlooked by so many people and that the only games that get attention are Adventure, Superstar/Ultra, 64 every once in a blue moon, Star Allies (but only as the butt of people's jokes), and Epic Yarn. There's a lot of ignorance around and no **** you're not going to see a reason why there should be another Kirby character/think it should (not just want, should) be Marx if the only game you've played is SSU.

If Nintendo wasn't picking the DLC the score would be much lower
For the record, I think we should've had both Magolor and Bandana Dee playable in Smash by now.

Want: 100%
My absolute most wanted (well besides Taranza I guess but that's actually never happening nor should it before Bandee, Magolor, Adeleine, DMS, etc). Kirby is my #1 favorite franchise and I have no shame in admitting that I'm completely obsessed with it (listen to Kirby music daily, have a Taranza plush on my desk, consider Robobot to be my favorite video game ever and Star Dream's theme to be my favorite vg song ever, 170+ hours in Star Allies don't ask, etc) and that it's gotten me through some rough patches. I will gladly eat so much crow in regards to that chance score if Bandee makes it in.

Nominate: Taranza x5

 

[Dorayaki]

The problem with your logic is you keep expressing it in terms of mistakes. The current status of characters isn't a mistake nor would it be rectified as such. So that doesn't matter. They don't need to view anything as a mistake for upgrades to happen.

I mentioned that Nintendo might not agree the current roster is a mistake, but that's the problem here. If they don't think they should had included certain characters in their mind, they would not think this should be fixed with the DLC power. And also, Nintendo have mentioned similar thoughts in the direct and speech do far.

Like I already said, Nintendo is just making decisions as always, choose fighters from tons of choices, most of the characters would remain unchosen in the end. That is pretty much a common result everyone can forsee.

 

[Megadoomer]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 40% - along with Toad, Dixie seems like a character who really should have been a playable character in Smash Bros. by now, at least in my eyes. She's one of the core members of the Donkey Kong cast, and the main character in one of the series' core titles. Between that and Tropical Freeze, she'd make a ton of sense. However, it's hard to gauge how first party/Nintendo characters are going to be handled for DLC.

From the limited amount of DLC that we've gotten, first party characters have either been series veterans, blatant promotional picks, or Piranha Plant, which was an unusual/unorthodox character that was offered as a bonus for early buyers of the game. Dixie would make a ton of sense, but I'm not sure how likely she'd be based on what we've seen.

Want: 80% - like I said, Dixie would make a ton of sense. As far as a new Donkey Kong character was concerned, both for Smash 4 and the build-up to Ultimate, I preferred K. Rool, but Dixie seems like an incredibly obvious pick who's being left out for seemingly no reason.

Bandanna Waddle Dee

Chance: 30% - Bandanna Waddle Dee has become part of the core Kirby cast since the Wii era, even making appearances in games where Meta Knight and Dedede don't show up (like Kirby and the Rainbow Curse on the Wii U). His moveset pretty much writes itself, and he seems to be popular in a wide variety of regions. However, from what we've seen, Sakurai tends to prefer referencing the Kirby games that he was involved in (Dream Land, Adventure, Super Star, Air Ride - it's telling that Nightmare, of all characters, gets an assist trophy while a villain as prominent as Dark Matter just gets spirits or stickers).

It's understandable from a creator's point of view, but frustrating from a fan's point of view. Regardless, as much as I'd like to see him included, I don't know how likely it will be unless Sakurai starts to incorporate more content from Kirby games that he didn't direct.

Want: 85% - a moveset would be easy enough to make based on Return to Dream Land alone, and including his other appearances would only boost that potential. I find it weird that Kirby hasn't had a new playable character in Smash since Brawl, two console generations ago. Kirby Star Allies shows us that there's a ton of potential for Kirby characters that's not getting taken advantage of (similar to how Hyrule Warriors shows us dozens of potential playable Zelda characters), and while there are other Kirby characters that I'd want to see playable at least as much (Adeline, Marx, Dark Matter), Bandanna Waddle Dee is the most prominent.

Also, dismissing him as a Goomba with a hat is like dismissing Terry as "Hat Ken", or saying that K. Rool would be a Bowser clone, or saying that Ridley would be a Charizard clone - all it seems to do is show that you haven't actually looked into the character in question.

 

[Brindor]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 25%
I think people have been riding on Dixie seriously since at least the Brawl days when Diddy got in, predicted by many countless times to get in each subsequent game and then virtually appearing in all fake leaks and rumors on top of it. She now has one of the biggest fandoms in the newcomer forum, although the moniker given to her as the "Last Nintendo All Star" is a bit of a stretch IMO. (That belongs to Captain N.)
I doubt she'll get in this time though, I think DK has already gotten it's gen worth of Smash Bros content with K Rool and then second cousins Banjo and Kazooie jumping aboard too.

Want: Abstain

Bandana Dee
Chance: 25%
Similar to Dixie in many ways, really what I've written could just be applied to him too
Want: Abstain

Nominating Cooking Mama x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Isaac/Waluigi pre-Dixie Kong/Bandana Dee

Freddy Fazbear x245
Kazuma Kiryu x210
The Blob (De Blob) x185
Crypto x175
Carmen Sandiego x165
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x160
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x150

150 - 101

Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Reporter & Wrestler x115
Gex x110

100 - 51

Big Daddy (BioShock) x85
Ryo Hazuki x80
Chun-Li x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x75
Mii Costume: Quote x70
Ring Fit Adventurer x70
Meowth x69
Decidueye x68
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x66
Brian (Quest 64) x65
[Rerate] Paper Mario x65
Segata Sanshiro x60
Bubsy x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Earthworm Jim x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x31
Concept: Darksiders rep x30
Concept: DLC music packs x30
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
[Rerate] Kratos x25
Gnar (League of Legends) x25
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Falinks x25

Under 25

Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x23
Terra Branford x18
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x17
Zeraora x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x10
Concept: Level-5 rep x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Black Shadow x8
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x7
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Sirfetch'd x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Ahri (League of Legends) x5
Otto Matic x5
Concept: New Zelda character x5
Chell x3
Magolor x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
3 Mage Sisters x2
Taranza x1

Bubsy glides past 50 noms.

Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates, Kratos, Gnar, and Falinks all cross 25 noms.

Your new concept for today is New Zelda character, with 5 noms.

I mentioned that Nintendo might not agree the current roster is a mistake, but that's the problem here. If they don't think they should had included certain characters in their mind, they would not think this should be fixed with the DLC power. And also, Nintendo have mentioned similar thoughts in the direct and speech do far.

Like I already said, Nintendo is just making decisions as always, choose fighters from tons of choices, most of the characters would remain unchosen in the end. That is pretty much a common result everyone can forsee.

Day's changed, so please keep conversation relevant to today's topic.

 

[Organization XIII]

I mentioned that Nintendo might not agree the current roster is a mistake, but that's the problem here. If they don't think they should had included certain characters in their mind, they would not think this should be fixed with the DLC power. And also, Nintendo have mentioned similar thoughts in the direct and speech do far.

Like I already said, Nintendo is just making decisions as always, choose fighters from tons of choices, most of the characters would remain unchosen in the end. That is pretty much a common result everyone can forsee.

Except they rethink characters' place all the time and it's never seen as a mistake. No placement needs to be seen as a problem for them to want to upgrade. The mentality that they need to feel they goofed is wrong. There's plenty of other reasons why characters couldn't be on the roster to begin with other they felt it was the "right choice" and their plenty of reasons to upgrade besides the current placement was the "wrong" choice.
They aren't fixing anything with DLC power and there's no reason too. It's simply adding a character they didn't or couldn't at the time something the dev team does often.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Female Diddy

Chance: 30%

Dixie Kong is one of the most requested and significant first party characters left. I do believe she has enough content to bring in terms of a stage, spirits and moveset (especially stages, there is tons of locations including ones outside of a jungle. Maybe a stage from one of the minecart levels? Could be interesting). Also, Dixie came close to being in Brawl which is notable. With a brand new pass, I"m confident that base game spirits don't hurt her chances at all. Dixie is also certainly the next Donkey Kong rep with how significant she is to the series.

I Just wish we knew more about the pass and how many more first party characters we are getting. When it comes to Smash 4 and Ultimate DLC, the focus has been mainly on third party characters, so I'm not expecting a lot more first party characters, hence the somewhat low rating. Still, I think she is one of the likeliest first party characters alongside Waluigi, Isaac, Rex, and the next character I'm about to talk about (I feel like I was a bit too harsh on Waluigi's and Isaac's chances but oh well).

Want: 7%

Sorry Dixie Kong fans. I'm not a big fan of the Donkey Kong games so she wouldn't do anything for me. Plus if she plays anything like Diddy, I won't use her often because I very rarely play as Diddy. There are just a lot of characters I'm more interested in (even when it comes to female characters. Lara Croft, Arle, etc.). Still, I would like to see her fanbase be happy and I think she is one of the most deserving first party characters.


Bandana Bartle Doo

Chance: 30%

Very similar situation to Dixie Kong. Highly requested, important to their series, moveset and new content potential, and overall should have been a character by now. Sakurai doesn't seem that interested in content from the Kirby games he wasn't involved in, which does hurt Bandana Dee's chances. My thoughts are pretty much the same as Dixie Kong's so I don't have a lot of unique things to say about him. Definitely one of the likeliest first party characters.

Want: 60%

Not a big Kirby fan, but he would make my friends happy and he has a spear which is cool. I give him a 5% want boost from my previous score because I've come to appreciate him more and I think he is one of the most deserving first party characters. Plus he is cute and very charming.

Predictions:
Rex - 35%
Elma - 18%

Noms: Crypto x5

 

[Deleted member]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 15%

I honestly believe Dixie has It tough between her being a Mii Hat, her Spirit and the fact I personally expect more third party characters this Pass.

Want: 50%
I would like her in the same way I would like anyone else, tbqh

Bandana Dee

Chance:15%
Same reasons as Dixie

Want: 60%
I add an extra 10% since I would personally welcome a new Kirby rep quite a lot.

 

[Perkilator]

Hey, Dix!
Chance: Unknown
It's up in the air, just like Dixie with her hair. Vol. 1 ending on prove 1st parties aren't off the table, but she likely isn't high on whatever priority list.

Want: 30% (I guess? Not super attached or anything)
With the DLC having a bit more time for characters with unique playstyles, I wouldn't mind having Dixie having such uniqueness. Besides, she's way too different from to be his Echo, anyways.

W a n y a
Chance: Unknown
Like I said, 1st parties are totally on the table. However, between Bandana Dee being a longtime fan request and Sakurai prioritizing the games he made, the former is in a weird situation right. And this is assuming Spirits don't confirm.

Want: 70%
Screw the Hat Goomba nonsense. Bandana Dee might not be my most wanted Kirby character (that goes to Adeleine and Ribbon), but he'd still be great to have!

Rex: 40%
Elma: 18%

Noms: Ring Fit Adventurer x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Isaac
20.45% Chance - 67.22% Want
Last time we rated him was during a special day when we rated ATs assuming they were on the table, or their chances for Smash 6. He got 10.54% chance and 59.42% want. At that point he was seen as the third-likeliest AT after Waluigi and Shadow, but now he's passed both of them. Obviously with Vol 2 announced many who saw ATs as disconfirmations don't anymore and Byleth showed that first-party characters can get in. As for want, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that a huge contingent of Isaac supporters came to the thread to post their ratings, so that might have helped.
Winner of predictions is BowserKing by virtue of being the highest prediction, with a precise 15.00%
Isaac is now the most likely first party character (aside from the disconfirmed Akira Howard and Master Hand, for whom we held a rating that coincidentally landed a couple of days after leaked copies showed he was playable in WoL) beating Elma's score of 20.41% all the way back in the days of Waiting for Joker. If that's the score that gets the highest chance for first parties, then yikes, but then again many people see ATs as disconfirmations and many more see Waluigi as the only AT with a shot, so I don't expect this record to last long. Still, it does show that sentiment towards first-party characters has been growing, so maybe thank your local Byleth next time you see him.

Waluigi
19.81% Chance - 60.75% Want
Last time we rated him he got 14.81% chance and 69.17% want. Again, same conditions as Isaac, and then he was the chance and want winner for ATs. Chance probably went up, again, by Vol 2's distance from base roster decisions, and Byleth. But, shockingly, his want went down?! What happened?? Only thing I can think of is that Isaac fans rated him low because they see him as competition. That's a pretty precipitous drop. Alas, Waluigi, thou art the eternal loser. Can't even win in the category where he's widely seen as the frontrunner.
Winner of predictions was Sari with 16.87%

Extra noms people

Artix 15
Awakining 5
BowserKing 5
Cadillac 5
Calamitas 5
DanganZilla5 15
DaUsername 57
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 38
Icedragonadam 15
NintenRob 100
Nemuresu 10
Perkilator 5
Sari 5
Ramen Tengoku 5
Troykv 15
Wunderwaft 10

 

[Sari]

Today I went to get a drink of lemonade at my workplace's kitchen and I noticed the plastic cups were made by the company Dixie. What are the odds?

Chance: 20%
Ignoring things like spirits for just this moment, Dixie is probably one of the frontrunners when it comes to another Nintendo character in general. She is very popular, has a ton of legacy, was planned to be in Brawl, and is now the most popular DK character not in Smash thanks to K. Rool's inclusion. Of course she has to compete with other more more recent Nintendo characters not to mention they could just make the pass mostly third party like last time.

Want: 95%
Dixie has always been my favorite character in the DK series and is among one of my most wanted first party characters. I honestly can't believe we've gone this far in Smash's lifespan without her being playable. Her inclusion just makes so much sense that I can't even imagine anyone being mad about it.

-----

Abstaining completely on Bandana Dee. He's just one of those characters in Smash speculation who I never got the hype behind, though it's mainly because I never really played the Kirby games so I just won't comment.

-----

Elma chance prediction: 11.80%
Rex chance prediction: 20.41%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x10

 

[ZeroJanitor]

Dixie Kong:

Chance: 15%
I think as far as getting a character as DLC who is already in the game as a spirit, Dixie has gotta be at least in the top 10, maybe even top 5 of likely candidates. But I don't think she would be the number one pick in that category, and so far we don't even know if they're willing to do that. So I think there's a chance, but not a particularly great one.

Want: 100%
Dixie Kong has been one of my favorite video game characters since playing DKC2 as a child, and with DK and Diddy making all kinds of cameos in the Mario games, you can't help but notice she hasn't utilized very much since the SNES days (she had her own game, after all!). It seems unfair how often she gets left out, and having her in Smash would be hugely validating for people like me who secretly always thought she was cooler than DK himself.

Bandana Dee:

Chance: 25%
Bandana Dee is in a similar situation as Dixie, but I think the two things that give him just a bit of an edge are: Bandana Dee's support seems just slightly more vocal, and Kirby not getting any new characters since Brawl means that series might be seen as being due for new blood.

Want: 80%
Bandana Dee is a cute character who is fun to play as in the Kirby games and I think he would have some cool stuff. Even though he's not a character I actively root for, I definitely respect the reasons people want him in Smash and I would be excited to see him get in and I think he'd be fun to play.

 

[3DSNinja]

I'm currently working on the noms list and calcs. Meant to post them earlier, sorry for the lateness.

Check my post, I talk about how easy it would be to have content for Dixie and Dee.

Uh, no she isn't. At most, some are okay with seeing her as an Echo. But many aren't. She could easily be unique too, so that's not really a hurdle for DLC.

What changes between now and an FP3 that would allow Shadow to happen then but not now? If you think ATs are still disconfirmed for FP2, they'll still be disconfirmed for FP3.

Nah, it's that Shadow wouldn't be first priority.
FP2 will have an assist upgrade, but Shadow would be second or third, not first.

 

[Cadillac]

I can nom 5 more times? Cool.

 

[Jomosensual]

I can nom 5 more times? Cool.

5 per day unless it's a special day or you win predictions, yes

 

[Cadillac]

Abstain on Dixie. I hardly know her.

Bandana Dee
Chance: 21%
He's one of the more popular characters that got the spirit treatment. I can see him being promoted to a fighter. We also don't have a genuine spear user in Smash.

Want: 65%
Not as Hornet/Isaac, but still pretty cool nonetheless. Really cute too. It's time for a new Kirby fighter.

Prediction
Rex: 24%
Elma: 9%
Noms: Hornet(Hollow Knight) x5

 

[TheYungLink]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 25%.

Many of us Dixie Kong fans aren't too hot on her prospects. Some of us, such as myself, feel that Dixie Kong could financially work best as a standalone purchase, separate from a larger pass and coming with no music or stage, at a cheaper price. Remember Piranha Plant? They cost $4.99 rather than the challenger pack price of $5.99, and a cheaper price could incentivize people to buy Dixie Kong.

However, Nintendo has only greenlit the Fighter's Pass Vol. 2, not any more standalone DLC characters beyond or alongside the 6 challenger packs announced. Given that all challenger packs so far have introduced new worlds, with new music, a unique stage, and a slew of new spirits native to that new world or game (the latter in Fire Emblem: Three Houses' case), the chance of Dixie Kong headlining a challenger oack is very slim. One could argue that a Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze stage, with a slew of brand new rips or remixes from that game (plus Dixie's other adventures, DKC2 and DKC3), and sole spirits of DKC2, DKC3, and Tropical Freeze enemies / bosses could feasibly work as a challenger pack, but given the pattern we have to work with regarding the first Fighter's Pass, it's unlikely that Nintendo feels Dixie Kong is exciting enough to attach all of this to her.

Despite that, my chance is 25% rather than anything lower because, at this point in time, we are unsure of how Fighter's Pass Vol. 2 will go. Maybe Nintendo DOES feel like having a bunch of Nintendo characters from established franchises become purchasable, and includes them with a stage, music, and spirits to sweeten the deal no matter who the character is. I don't expect Nintendo to leave out third-party characters altogether, but part of me thinks that, unlike with Fighter's Pass 1, we will get at least two Nintendo characters this time, rather than one.

Want: 100%.

Many series have, more or less, their core cast playable if more than their respective main protagonists can be played as. Mario, Zelda, and thanks to Smash Ultimate being very generous, even Metroid all have the heavy hitters from each series playable. Kirby may or may not feel complete depending on your view on Bandana Waddle Dee, but putting that aside, many series feel "complete", and if they don't, that's generally because either their series is dormant (Kid Icarus doesn't have Medusa, Hades, or Viridi playable cuz their last game was from 2013), or their latest entry has a contested reception (Star Fox doesn't have Peppy, Slippy, or Krystal playable, but Star Fox Zero is very controversial). I of course refer to series with recurring protagonists, and thus don't refer to games like Pokémon, Fire Emblem, or Xenoblade with rotating protagonists.

That said, Donkey Kong is nearly complete. There's DK, Diddy Kong, and King K. Rool, all from the first DKC game (DK's modern redesign, I mean). Main character, sidekick, and villain. But starting with the second game, another core cast member was introduced: Dixie Kong. She was the other playable character in DKC2, and the main character in DKC3. Keep in mind: those latter two games don't let you play as DK, so, for all intents and purposes, despite Dixie being introduced in DKC2, she has firmly established herself as much of a main character as DK, Diddy, and K. Rool. The latest game in the series, Tropical Freeze, brought her back after a huge period of absence, with much rejoicing from fans. Unfortunately, that game was from 2014, and while it got a financially successful port for the Switch in 2018, it's still seen as an old game by many.

It would be a darn shame if, due to simple bad timing, she couldn't get included in Smash Ultimate in time to join her DKC brethren. I want Dixie Kong playable in Smash a lot because she would more or less "complete" the series, and I wouldn't really demand too hard for other DK characters after her. Even as someone who would like to see Cranky Kong or Funky Kong, neither of them feel as "needed" as Dixie Kong, imho. Her absence on the roster is widely considered one of the most confusing among Nintendo characters, and for good reason. It's not that Dixie is the most demanded Nintendo character, not by a long shot: it's that she feels the most missing. So, hopefully, Nintendo can squeeze Dixie Kong into Smash Ultimate while they're blowing our minds with more awesome third-party character picks and stuff.

 

[Mamboo07]

Bandana Dee
Chance: 19%
Due to the whole Super Star and games directed with Sakurai bias, it's likely that Bandana Dee won't be in the DLC Pass. (Kirby hasn't gotten a new rep since Brawl.)

Want: 100%.
I. FREAKING. WANT. HIM SO MUCH!!!

Dixie Kong
Chance: 24%
It's very unlikely she won't get into the DLC Pass. (Not much about this.)

Want: 75%
Wouldn't mind her in Smash.^-^ (Not one of my most wanted, but would make fans of Dixie happy.)

 

[Ridrool64]

It's that time, folks. I've decided that when it comes to concepts, I will put them into a separate league once we have done 10 non-Fighter concepts. This means that stuff like Mii Costumes, DLC Music Packs, Assists added in updates, and Standalone stage DLC are in their own league. Stuff like Echo Fighter pass and Company rep concepts still relate to playable characters, so they go in the main league alongside the individual characters we rate.

Chance Key: Green = Frontrunner (50+%), Blue = Solid Shot (35+%), White is Feasible (10+%), and Red is below that, Pipe Dream.

By chance:

Spoiler: Chance Totals

1. Ryu Hayabusa: 59.48% Chance
2. Crash Bandicoot: 59.26% Chance
3. Lloyd Irving: 50.29% Chance
4. Dante: 49.38% Chance
5. Phoenix Wright: 43.94% Chance
6. Geno: 42.50% Chance
7. Sora: 40.58% Chance
8. Arle Nadja: 39.29% Chance
9. Heihachi Mishima: 37.58% Chance
10. 2B: 35.41% Chance
11. Sol Badguy: 31.00% Chance
12. Lara Croft: 29.50% Chance
13. Reimu Hakurei: 24.98% Chance
14. Isaac: 20.45% Chance
15. Waluigi: 19.81% Chance
16. Dovahkiin: 19.69% Chance
17. Nightmare: 18.74% Chance
18. Master Chief: 18.27% Chance
19. Tracer: 17.37% Chance
20. Ragna the Bloodedge: 14.25% Chance
21. Rayman: 11.53% Chance
22. Spyro the Dragon: 9.58% Chance
23. KOS-MOS: 8.87% Chance
24. Neku Sakuraba: 6.46% Chance
25. The Knight: 4.62% Chance
26. Thrall: 3.07% Chance
27. Doomguy: 2.86% Chance
28. Vault Boy: 1.82% Chance
29. Hat Kid: 0.85% Chance

Want key: Pink = Community Stars (#FF69B4) [65+%], Brown = Fan Favorites [#8B4513] (60+%), Yellow = Popular (40+%), Purple is Average (25+%), Black is Unpopular (below 25%). With the addition of new characters that pass a certain threshold, I have decided to add a new level for want.

By want:

Spoiler: Want Totals

1. Crash Bandicoot: 75.78% Want
2. Phoenix Wright: 70.91% Want
3. Lara Croft: 69.06% Want
4. Isaac: 67.22% Want
5. Ryu Hayabusa: 64.32% Want
6. Dante: 64.23% Want
7. 2B: 64.09% Want
8. Geno: 62.93% Want
9. Master Chief: 60.94% Want
10. Waluigi: 60.75% Want
11. Arle Nadja: 60.50% Want
12. Reimu Hakurei: 60.05% Want
13. Nightmare: 57.27% Want
14. Sora: 54.44% Want
15. Neku Sakuraba: 53.89% Want
16. Heihachi: 53.60% Want
17. Rayman: 52.35% Want
18. Spyro the Dragon: 52.04% Want
19. Sol Badguy: 51.18% Want
20. The Knight: 50.12% Want
21. Lloyd Irving: 47.85% Want
22. Dovahkiin: 47.40% Want
23. Doomguy: 44.15% Want
24. Ragna the Bloodedge: 37.19% Want
25. KOS-MOS: 35.24% Want
26. Thrall: 26.50% Want
27. Hat Kid: 23.69% Want
28. Tracer: 22.73% Want
29. Vault Boy: 20.40% Want

Waluigi BARELY shoves out Arle of the top 10 most wanted characters, while Reimu was screwed either way. Isaac, meanwhile, I think was overrated since there was an unusual influx of characters. Even though Isaac had a higher score, I feel like Waluigi is the real winner here because people who weren't invested in Waluigi showing up gave him the time of day.

Next time: Waluigi loses his spot in the top 10, as Bandana Dee is almost assuredly going to pass him. Dixie too, most likely. In fact if I were Chief I'd be worried. Bandana Dee's chance, however, is uncertain, and Dixie's is unlikely to be too high. While I don't think either Rex or Elma will do well among the regulars here in terms of chance, I imagine that their wants will break 50% at worst, and if either of them have their support threads participate, will probably crack the top 10 again.

Currently I consider the top 10 the best part. By the end of the fixed schedule, I'll make it the top 15. Once we hit 50 slots, top 20. When we hit 100 spots, top 35. So on and so forth.

If we had a chance pass: Ryu Hayabusa, Crash Bandicoot, Lloyd Irving, Blue-Tier #1, Blue-Tier #2, White-Tier

If we had a want pass: Crash Bandicoot, Phoenix Wright, Lara Croft, Isaac, Brown-Tier #1, Brown-Tier #2

 

[Laniv]

Bandana Dee

Chance: 23%
Even now, there is a chance. I'll admit it's a small one, but still a chance.

Want: 100%
He's cute and could be a "small character, big weapon" type of fighter. Bring him to me.


Dixie Kong

Chance: 23%
Same deal as Bandana Dee. The spirit does kinda throw a wrench in her chances.

Want: 100%
One of the last Nintendo Classics™ left imo. I still say she should've been added since Smash 4.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Bandana Dee

Chance: 23%
Even now, there is a chance. I'll admit it's a small one, but still a chance.

Want: 100%
Bring him to me.


Dixie Kong

Chance: 23%
Same deal as Bandana Dee

Want: 100%
One of the last Nintendo Classics™ left imo

I believe it’s minimum two full sentences for each want and chance rating to be counted.

 

[Dukemon102]

Dixie Kong

Spoiler: Dixie Kong's History

One thing to start: She would NOT be an echo fighter. And she was not made one for a reason. Moving on.

Chance: 25%
After getting and I feel I can be more optimistic about her chances. Since she's also a Rare character and they would want to include another one for the next pass since both of them have had a bombastic positive reception. But also, that makes me worry that they think we have enough.
Also, there's the sad record Nintendo holds treating the DK Franchise very poorly, practically killing its popularity in the 2000s because they never did anything decent with it until Retro came to the rescue. Also the extremes we have even had to reach to get Sakurai and Nintendo to even consider another DK rep are absurd, we would have never ever gotten if it wasn't for the massive ballot campaign, even with him in, DK's representation in terms of stages and music selection still feels lacking. Which would be fixed with a Dixie challenger pack. But will Nintendo even consider her when they are always ignoring DK franchise's existence besides , and Jungle Level theme? We will have to wait and see.

Want: 100%
My most wanted character since Melee (Yes, I wanted her to join Brawl so badly along with , sadly how things turned out). DKC2 is my favorite game of all time, I can't stop playing it. TF comes close, and I love DKC3 as well, I think it's extremely underrated.
I have played those games countless of times and there is always a common playable character there, Dixie. She's the most fun character to use in all those games, her animations and attitude are full of personality, if you have played DK64 and you think is the member that has always played the guitar and loved rock and metal music, you are very wrong.
I love her and I'm sad that 20 years after, Smash still has the last one of the main DK protagonists left out. Please join as soon as possible Dixie.


Bandana Waddle Dee

Spoiler: Bandana Waddle Dee's History

Chance: 75%

With the little guy I am more optimistic, because of how huge the demand for him has become in the entire world. I always see him scoring high on every fan poll, when and were dominating 1st, he was always close in 2nd to 5th place. The Kirby series hasn't had anything since Brawl. It's about time they give the franchise something new besides more retro content from Sakurai's games. Which like DK, is very easily corrected with a Fighter Pack based on the modern games from the Kumazaki era. If a first party gets added, I think it's very likely for Nintendo to propose him. Otherwise they would be intentionally ignoring the wishes of the fans (And japanese fans, Dee is very huge there too).

Want: 100%
The Kirby games I like the most are the ones that were directed by Kumazaki (Director of Superstar Ultra until Star Allies). What those games have in common? Yeah, Bandana Dee is always there. He proved to be a courageous and loyal servent in Revenge of the King, challenging Kirby even when he knew he would lose just to protect his king, that made me appreciate and remember him, so when he became playable in Return to Dreamland. I was very surprised and glad to see him. He has had a perfect attendance record in all the games since then and his moveset is so easy to make, it's almost a joke he hasn't been included into Smash yet. DLC pass 2 is his perfect and last chance to be there with the rest of the Kirby quartet, please make it happen.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain on Dixie Kong. I know nothing about her.

Bandana Waddle Dee
Chance: 35%
I will admit, I'm probably being a little generous. We only have the bare minimum of modern Kirby content in Ultimate's base game, so he definetly has material to bring. Plus, he's incredibly popular in Japan, from what I heard. Problem is, Sakurai seems to prefer HIS Kirby content above all else, and it shows.
Want: 100%
Bandana Dee is my most wanted first-party character. He's from a franchise I absolutely adore, and his basic premise is surprisingly endearing. As such, I long for the day where The Legend of Dee becomes one of the "Nintendo All-Stars", as they're called. Or he gets his own side mode in the next Kirby game. Whichever comes first.

Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5

 

[RouffWestie]

Dixie Kong
Chance: 0%
Donkey Kong IMO is not going to be lucky enough to get more than K Rool in ultimate. I don’t have faith in Nintendo recognizing Dixie’s popularity among their 1st-party characters. Most likely she’ll be a better potential newcomer for the next game.
Want: 100%
Yes!!! Dixie Kong is an instant purchase for me. I have a lot of fond memories of DKC2 and 3. I have a strong desire to see how she'd be translated into Smash.

Bandanna Dee
Chance: 0%
Another popular character I don’t think Nintendo would pick as DLC. If they choose to wait until the next Smash and include him as a base newcomer, it would be an easier way to include him. Paid DLC is not a good fit for him.
Want: 80%
A solid newcomer choice. Ideally, my pipe dream 1st choice for a new spear-user in Smash is Lilty, and there are other Kirby newcomes I'd jump out of my seat for, but Bandanna Dee would be a good choice regardless. He gets a lot of attention in Kirby games, something I have to congratulate their developers for. It's rare for newly introduced side characters to actually stick around in Nintendo games.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Dixie Kong:
Chance: 5%
Can't see it happening just with the overall treatment DK tends to get. Yeah we got K. Rool but that was after huge fan push.
Dixie, frankly, should have been in by now. Either Sm4sh or Ultimate at least.

Want: 100%
Aside from Toad/Captain Toad, Dixie is the character I feel deserves to be in this Nintendo fighting game most.
Edit: I've said everything I have to say about Dixie in the past. She's great, she's memorable, she's so much more than Diddy in drag. Let me helicopter spin, play guitar and maybe even use animal buddies.

Bandana Waddle Dee:
Chance: 3%
Like Dixie, can't see it happening. Sakurai loves his series but I don't think he see's waddle dee as anything but fodder.

Want: 100%
After Toad and Dixie, Bandana Dee is my biggest want and a true Nintendo star. Alas I can't see him making it for some reason.
Edit: I feel like the spear moveset would be fun and functional too.