Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Guynamednelson]

SHE WAS IN THAT ONE GAMEBOY GAME FOR A FEW FRAMES.

In a role that could've easily been Peach's, nonetheless. She had no need to be created until Waluigi was, and even then Toad could've been Peach's tennis partner.

 

[Sid-cada]

Waluigi

Chance - 2.5% - If there ever was a person capable of escaping the Assist Trophy prison, I think it's Waluigi. He's simply too noticeable in outcry to not be noticed. That said, the lack of surrounding material to make a complete set is problematic. As of now, characters are sold by their extra content almost as much as the characters themselves. Waluigi is something of a homeless vagabond in terms of Mario continuity; he's shown up in spinoffs, but lacks things that would be seen as connected to him would make a fully fledged DLC group difficult. Also given DLC's propensity to focus on things that aren't in the game, and I'm not very confident that would happen.

Want - 50% - Cool if it happens, don't particularly care if it doesn't. It would mostly come down to execution of how Waluigi gets in. I'd still be much happier with Toad, but I guess I can take him.

Issac

Chance - 0% - His franchise is dormant, and possibly even dead. As a result, he really only appeals to his decaying fan base, and those that have latched onto him through smash speculation, and even then he isn't a universal love like, say, K. Rool, Ridley, or Banjo was. He only really appeals to 2 fairly niche audiences, most of whom already are on board. Unless something tells us different about how DLC is being chosen, I do not see how this is going in his direction at all.

Want - 75% - Which is a shame, as I feel like he could have been an interesting character. I haven't played the games, but from a synergy standpoint I can appreciate his inclusion.


Nominations

De Blob X5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Gotta say, the notion that Isaac somehow isn't a hugely demanded character like Ridley, K. Rool, Banjo, and Geno is weird to me when Isaac has consistently performed similarly or better to those characters in polls.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

In a role that could've easily been Peach's, nonetheless. She had no need to be created until Waluigi was, and even then Toad could've been Peach's tennis partner.

Funny thing is, Peach was technically Toad's Partner in the N64 game, in fact Peach and Daisy weren't automatically paired together in the actual game. She was originally brought back as a caddy for Luigi since Mario had Peach in NES Open Tournament Golf.

And hey, if Toad was Peach's partner in spinoffs we would have never gotten Toadette, so BOO to that idea. (I know she wasn't created until Double Dash, I was just saying as a hypothetical for the series).

 

[Cadillac]

I call it: The winners of the Waluigi and Isaac prediction would still be very far from the actual result.

 

[Simnm]

Issac
Chance-5%
I dont think nintendo would try to promote issac espacially since he is from an inactive franchise.with issac being an assist trophy which means that his chances are even lower,however,i can see sakurai picking him due to his fan demand.

Want-30%
He'll be cool and that it will satisfy a significant amount of fans.issac does not seem that interesting to me speciffically with that being said.

Waluigi
Chance-10%
I can see sakurai picking him due to the fact that there is a high demand for him.i also think if nintendo would choose a assist trophy to promote i think that they will waluigi over issac due to waluigi coming from mario,a more active franchise than golden sun.

Want-90%
He would be really fun addition.waluigi has always been faovourite of mine and seeing in smash would be reay cool.

Nominations:steve×5[Rerate]

 

[Guynamednelson]

And hey, if Toad was Peach's partner in spinoffs we would have never gotten Toadette, so BOO to that idea. (I know she wasn't created until Double Dash, I was just saying as a hypothetical for the series).

I'm not saying it should happen.

I call it: The winners of the Waluigi and Isaac prediction would still be very far from the actual result.

To be fair this thread did think several newcomers we did get were unlikely.

 

[Kalaam]

This thread is basically always wrong xD
Mostly because most people here rating characters don't know any better and just give a low percent because they either don't want it, or just don't want to bother researching it.
Makes me laugh when someone says Golden Sun is dead while a new trademark is filled right after thee devs last game finishes developpment, that they haven't announced any new game in 2 years and it just got a ton of representation in ultimate for a "dead" franchise.
The community has never been this active, it's far from dead, and it's likely bringing the serie back.

 

[Pinguino21v]

even then he isn't a universal love like, say, K. Rool, Ridley, or Banjo

"Universal" is a bold assumption. I discovered these three characters thanks to Smash, and I am glad for them and their fans, but I have literally zero interest in them, and that is probably the case for a lot of the younger people who didn't grow with them too.
Actually, these three characters are exactly like Geno or Isaac: long-term requested less renowned characters asked by the people who grew up with their games. No more, no less.

And even then, it's not like if you needed to be universally loved to get included...

There are always being a few low-key inclusions in every iterations of base game and DLC content.

Gotta say, the notion that Isaac somehow isn't a hugely demanded character like Ridley, K. Rool, Banjo, and Geno is weird to me when Isaac has consistently performed similarly or better to those characters in polls.

The story is written by the winner.

It's a shame everyone seems to forgot how the speculation before the launch pushed Isaac to high heights: strong demand, lot of (false) hints, fake leaks, in a lot of expection lists.

You and I are certainly subjective, but so do are a lot of people on this board: most likely a demographic consisting mostly of Americans, of young adults who grew up with home consoles (NES, SNES, GC), plateformers and Metroid; more than with portable consoles and J-RPGs.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Not exactly the best example there when she is pushed as AC's new mascot due to her popularity.

 

[Pinguino21v]

Not exactly the best example there when she is pushed as AC's new mascot due to her popularity.

I never said otherwise. This example, among the 6 others, was used to illustrate the argument "not needed to be universally loved to get included". Isabelle was indubitably not universally loved in this community.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Waluigi: 20%

I mean, it could happen, but they proved time and again that Waluigi isn't a character high on their priority list for potential Mario newcomers. If Daisy and Piranha Plant make it before Waluigi, you know he's just not very egible to be a fighter. Not impossible, because of requests and popularity, but definitely not likely.

Want: 50%

Warmed up to Waluigi in Smash quite a bit. He's not as much of an eyesore to me now that so many characters are in Smash already. He's decently well requested, and I'd actually like it if he made it. However there's other Mario characters I want more.

Isaac: 50%

The trademark thing is a hint towards a new Golden Sun. Isaac is also very high requested even since before the likes of Ridley and K.Rool got in. Around Smash 4 for example, he was about as much requested as Roy and Shulk. Less than Mewtwo, Mega Man, Ridley and K.Rool, but definitely one of the more requested characters. We got a Mii costume, his AT back and lots of other things that give Golden Sun the most attention of all the franchises that don't have a playable character. That's kinda big. I see Isaac making it in, but he's reliant on a new game of course.

Want : 100%. I ****ing love Golden Sun.

 

[Amped_Form]

Before I do my ratings, I'm gonna post my thoughts on assist trophies/spirits since we'll be talking about them for the next few days or so:

Since the first season pass characters had already been decided on before Ultimate was finished, I had almost no faith in one of them being an AT/spirit character. I just couldn't see Sakurai deciding that someone like Waluigi would be playable at the same time they were working out their assist trophy. That said however, we're now in our first ever second season of Smash DLC so in a weird way it's like speculating on an entirely new game. Sakurai has said multiple times over the past few months or so that he is not thinking about any future Smash game at the moment. Because of this I really think he's gonna go all in with requested characters and not care about any supposed "rules." Not having an AT show up in battle under certain conditions also takes like a second to do as seen with Knuckles not appearing on the Green Hill stage for example.

Also I'm just gonna say right now who I think the three likeliest AT/spirit promotions are:

• Waluigi
• Geno
• Rex

I'll talk more about Rex during his upcoming RTC day but in a nutshell I think he's in the same position as Chrom was after SSB4.

-----

Waluigi

Chance: 40%
As far as assist trophy promotions go, Waluigi is without a doubt the lead candidate. He is very highly requested to the point where even Nintendo is aware of how much fans want him.

Want: 100%
Waluigi has always been one of my favorite Mario characters. He's hilarious, wacky, and would also be a great way to represent some of the Mario spin-offs if needed. Just give the poor guy his chance already!

-----

Isaac

Chance: 20%
Another AT candidate with a decent chance of being promoted (probably the 2nd most likely AT promotion imo). Golden Sun has a ton of content to choose from and Isaac has always been a big request, so I can see him being promoted after Waluigi.

Want: Abstain
I never really got that far into Golden Sun so I'll just abstain on his want rating.

-----

Bandana Dee chance prediction: 22.86%
Dixie chance prediction: 25.84%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x5

It’s possible but it’s unlikely, honestly. I guess Rex is the expectation as Sakurai did mention of why he couldn’t get into smash in the first place.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Waluigi:

Chance: 40%
I think if any assist trophy looks like a front runner in regards to being upgraded, it's Waluigi. Like, seriously, when you have videos like this one with millions of views, and when you have Reggie talking about how the outrage over Waluigi's AT appearance was big enough for Nintendo to notice, it becomes quite clear that Waluigi has generated a lot of noise despite being not playable. The only other character to generate similair noise was Ridley back in Smash 4. I believe we'll get a fan favorite character in pass 2, and I don't see why Waluigi shouldn't be counted among the possible candidates for that role. He's popular, he's very requested, and Nintendo acknowledges his demand.

People believe assist trophies are impossible to upgrade as DLC because of whatever reasons. Even though many fighting games have already done the NPC promotion before, people seem to think Smash might be the exception and every single character already represented in Smash that isn't a fighter has zero chance to be promoted. It's an odd idea but it's a fairly popular one among the fandom.

The main argument against AT's not being able to be promoted is "it hasn't happened yet", which doesn't seem concrete to me since you could say the same thing to a lot of characters that "haven't happened yet" before they got in. NPCs not being able to be promoted to be a playable character is a misconception the fandom had even though neither Sakurai or Nintendo said promotions are not happening of any kind.

It is likely? No.
Is it impossible? Hell no.

I believe Waluigi has a chance of being playable, and if it ever happens then that's another fan rule we can throw away.


Want: 100%
My most wanted character for over ten years and still counting. I think Waluigi fits Smash really well and he's someone who arguably should've been playable already. If his moveset is anything close to the other three Bros then I'll have fun with him for sure.



Isaac

Chance: 20%
There is one main problem I see with Isaac's chances, is a new game actually coming out? People theorize that there could be a new game coming out, what with the trademark and Camelot being silent for 2 years. If a new game is coming out then this score will go much higher, but since we're talking about a game that we don't even know is in production, it makes ranking this character quite difficult. I will say that Golden Sun doesn't have any playable characters, so in a way that's one point in it's favor.

The trademark could mean nothing in the end, or it could mean a new game. At the moment I see Isaac as a possibility, albeit an unlikely one. Isaac's fate for Smash ultimately depends on if a new Golden Sun is coming out or not. We'll just have to wait and see.


Want: 70%
Originally I wasn't that interested in the character even though I played the original Golden Sun years ago. But over time I have come to appreciate the potential that Isaac could bring with him, what with him being a geomancer. I do wish to come back to Golden Sun and play it's sequel, but I don't think I'll ever have enough time for that in the near future since my backlog is already so clogged up.



Nomination: Kratos x5

Prediction:
Bandanda Dee 29.7%
Dixie Kong 22.7%

 

[Ninjaed]

By the way, what do you guys think of the recent Junko "leak"?

 

[chocolatejr9]

By the way, what do you guys think of the recent Junko "leak"?

As much as I want Danganronpa in Smash, I know a fake leak when I see one. That being said, I'm glad people are talking about the possibility. Keep in mind, Ryu Hayabusa didn't become popular until AFTER he showed up in leaks.

 

[11th]

For reference: I'm currently guessing that we'll get two first party fighters through the second pass, and that both will be at least somewhat promotional. (ex. One existing character from an upcoming or recent release, and one new character from an upcoming release.) With that in mind...


Waluigi
Chance: 0.5% (1/200) - I don't know if Nintendo would feel the need to "promote" Mario, as it's already the best selling video game franchise ever. Even if they did go for it, I feel as though they would prioritize the main and "side" (ex. RPG) Mario games, which doesn't help Waluigi as he is still stuck in the kart & sport games. There's also the matter of his Assist Trophy status. Now, I won't claim that it's "impossible" for ATs to make the jump, but the fact that he has been repeatedly turned down, even when Nintendo seemingly started calling more of the shots with Ultimate, does not bode well for his chances.
Want: 0% - I consider "0%" to be "neutral", as there are almost no characters that I'm actually against. That said, I'm indifferent to Waluigi. He's just one of those character archetypes that doesn't usually click with me.

Isaac
Chance: 1% (1/100) - I do think that Isaac is in a slightly better position than most ATs, as he is fairly popular in the core Smash fanbase and he would represent a new series. But even if the rumors about a new Gold Sun being in development do end up being true, it may not actually help him specifically. Nintendo and Mr. Sakurai don't always go for the original protagonist when bringing in a new series (ex. MOTHER, Final Fantasy, Persona, and Dragon Quest), and may instead focus on the theoretical new protagonist to help advertise the new game. If this rating were for Golden Sun as a whole, I'd feel more comfortable putting it a bit higher, but I do think Isaac's best chance has come and gone with the base game.
Want: 5% - He could bring some good songs. Other than that, though, I don't have strong ties to the series and am fairly indifferent to him making it or not.

Predictions - Bandana Waddle Dee, 30.10% / Dixie Kong, 29.90%
Noms - Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x5


It feels weird to not skip noms.

 

[Ninjaed]

As much as I want Danganronpa in Smash, I know a fake leak when I see one. That being said, I'm glad people are talking about the possibility. Keep in mind, Ryu Hayabusa didn't become popular until AFTER he showed up in leaks.

What exactly makes you think it's fake? I won't say it's real but I'd like to know the arguments against it. For instance, I know people have said that the face looks too weird and Monokuma wouldn't even be in the character selection cropped image, but it's not a splash art. It's a 3D model without the lightning and all from the stages. Quality-wise, Junko's model is rather close to Pokémon Trainer's which looks a bit iffy as well.

So yeah, what makes you think it's fake?

 

[chocolatejr9]

What exactly makes you think it's fake? I won't say it's real but I'd like to know the arguments against it. For instance, I know people have said that the face looks too weird and Monokuma wouldn't even be in the character selection cropped image, but it's not a splash art. It's a 3D model without the lightning and all from the stages. Quality-wise, Junko's model is rather close to Pokémon Trainer's which looks a bit iffy as well.

So yeah, what makes you think it's fake?

Me personally? The quality of Junko's model. If it was just the Monokuma model, it'd actually be somewhat believable for me because that one looks more polished. Junko's... not so much. I get that she's a human character and thus would (presumably) be harder to work with, but it's really inconsitant in some places, mostly in the attempts at censorship (because let's be real, if Junko gets in, she's getting censored).

 

[N3ON]

I notice some of the high Isaac scores are predicated on a hypothetical. People are speculating Isaac might get a new game and then giving scores reflective of him already having had that game announced.

I don't think that's how this works.

Scores should be predicated on the current situation. Otherwise almost any character got could a bump on the basis of "if they get a new game".

 

[Kalaam]

The current situation indicate that a new game is likely coming.
It's not a random, baseless "IF Golden Sun gets a new game", it is "considering that Golden Sun is likely having a new game".

Of course, if we had actual confirmation that the game is coming, the scores would be higher.
However, disregarding informations is just as dumb and partial as saying, say, 100% without any basis. Otherwise we migth as well give 0% to every character because they haven't been confirmed.
It's a speculation thread, so let's speculate.

 

[GoodGrief741]

By the way, what do you guys think of the recent Junko "leak"?

This is very much off-topic.

I don't know if Nintendo would feel the need to "promote" Mario, as it's already the best selling video game franchise ever. Even if they did go for it, I feel as though they would prioritize the main and "side" (ex. RPG) Mario games, which doesn't help Waluigi as he is still stuck in the kart & sport games.

First off, DLC isn't meant to promote anything. At best, the ability to promote a new game is a plus but nowhere near a necessity.

Second, how are the sports and Kart games anything but side games? They're even more alive than the RPGs, and if sales are taken into account, the Kart games are the main games.

Nintendo and Mr. Sakurai don't always go for the original protagonist when bringing in a new series (ex. MOTHER, Final Fantasy, Persona, and Dragon Quest), and may instead focus on the theoretical new protagonist to help advertise the new game.

They always go with the most popular/iconic protagonist, though, so unless a new GS game is released super soon and becomes an instant classic, far surpassing the previous games, I'd still expect Isaac.

I notice some of the high Isaac scores are predicated on a hypothetical. People are speculating Isaac might get a new game and then giving scores reflective of him already having had that game announced.

I don't think that's how this works.

Scores should be predicated on the current situation. Otherwise almost any character got could a bump on the basis of "if they get a new game".

It does work if you're certain of the hypothetical. For example, people have given scores dependant on us getting more DLC or all characters being third party, which ended up being hypotheticals with different values of truth.

 

[Organization XIII]

Really the chances for both characters are actually 33%. As it stands the biggest fan requests are Isaac, Waluigi, and Geno. One of those characters will be added as the fan character. If we are lucky more then one but with how the roster usually pans out the character we actually ask for are far in the minority so don't expect a lot, but one of them for sure will come.

 

[Ninjaed]

Really the chances for both characters are actually 33%. As it stands the biggest fan requests are Isaac, Waluigi, and Geno. One of those characters will be added as the fan character. If we are lucky more then one but with how the roster usually pans out the character we actually ask for are far in the minority so don't expect a lot, but one of them for sure will come.

Um... We already got fan characters. Ridley, KKR, Isabelle... and Banjo & Kazooie in DLC. What makes you think they'd be willing to give us even more?

 

[Cadillac]

Um... We already got fan characters. Ridley, KKR, Isabelle... and Banjo & Kazooie in DLC. What makes you think they'd be willing to give us even more?

Money. Simple.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Money. Simple.

Not trying to sound rude, but do you mind elaborating?

 

[Guynamednelson]

Not trying to sound rude, but do you mind elaborating?

People will buy these characters simply for being more content for a game that sold 17+ million.

 

[Cadillac]

Not trying to sound rude, but do you mind elaborating?

Basically, whether it's Isaac, Waluigi, Geno, Rex&Pyra etc. They have lots of fans. What better ways to persuade these fans to buy the challenger pack or FP2 than adding said character into the roster?

 

[amageish]

Um... We already got fan characters. Ridley, KKR, Isabelle... and Banjo & Kazooie in DLC. What makes you think they'd be willing to give us even more?

In general, I would challenge the idea that "fan characters" are a specific sub-category in Smash Bros roster selection. Smash Bros has a large enough fanbase that most characters do have fan demand somewhere, even if it isn't a mainstay pick in the circles that we operate in here on SmashBoards.

That said: I assume they will pick characters who are popular in some regard, as they do want to sell the characters. A lot of people will buy the entire pass, but characters having something unique/engaging about them as a selling point is likely to be one motif from the first pass that will continue into the second one.

 

[Organization XIII]

Um... We already got fan characters. Ridley, KKR, Isabelle... and Banjo & Kazooie in DLC. What makes you think they'd be willing to give us even more?

Um literally because we got those characters. Besides, there's always a character the community wanted that gets added. In terms of newcomers, the fan requests are the minority but we always get them. I don't think Sakurai will ever completely ignore the fanbase. It'll never be the majority focus of additions but we will always see a character that's been requested.

 

[ceterisparibus]

I do find some of the assumptions held regarding GS to be...overoptimistic given how trademarks are just a formality to ensure that Nintendo's IPs don't go into public domain. It's in no way a good indicator of a new game coming.

Rather, i think it is more important to see how Nintendo views the IP (no new game for many years, camelot stuck in Mario Golf hell, other JRPGs taking up the space). There's nothing to show that its going to see a resurgence.

 

[BravadoMan_13]

Waluigi

Chance - 50%

- I'm going on a limb and saying that Waluigi has a 50% chance. Yes I know he is already an AT and the chance of him being promoted in-game to playable are low in general. Waluigi has been buzzing a lot in recent months. Reggie has mentioned that the fan demand around Waluigi is being heard by Nintendo. Doug Bowser recently acknowledged Brian Gilbert's tweet about his Waluigi video. Since K. Rool, Ridley, and Banjo & Kazooie got into Ultimate (who were all highly requested characters for years), Waluigi has risen towards the top characters not in Smash as playable despite his AT status

Don't forget that the WASHINGTON POST reported on the exclusion of Waluigi back in 2018. These factors don't outright confirm Waluigi for Smash, but they should be worth noting. If there is an assist trophy that can/will shatter the '"ATs can't be promoted with the same game" rule, it's Waluigi for sure. If Chrom can be a part of Robin's FS and playable at the same time, then why not Waluigi?

Want - 100% + 50

- Waluigi is at the top of my most wanted character list for Smash without a doubt. I've wanting this guy in Smash for years and years. He would complete the Mario/Luigi/Wario/Waluigi bro quartet in Smash. Waluigi alongside Dixie are two characters that are truly missing pieces to the roster. Waluigi deserves the spotlight after years in the shadows. It's his time to shine and have the glory.

Isaac

Chance - 38%

- Isaac has somewhat of a shot to get in. He has been among the bigger names not in Smash and Golden Sun doesn't even have representation in playable character though there is the Isaac AT, music, and the spirits. I don't see him getting in first as far as ATs go, though it would be a surprise to be sure, a welcome one. Nintendo was pretty surprised at the response when Isaac was revealed as an AT in that November direct. It would be nice to see Golden Sun to the public whether it's a remake or a new series entry.

Want - 100%

- I've always wanted Isaac ever since I saw his AT back in the Brawl days. Some see Isaac as a swordsman, but he is much more than that. His Djinn and Earth Psynergy would make him stand out much more. Currently ranked #3 in most wanted list.

 

[RouffWestie]

Waluigi
Chance: 0%
Nintendo chose the DLC, so I have a feeling the only first-party DLC will be limited to Fire Emblem, Pokemon, and, maybe just maybe if we're lucky, Pink-Gold Baby Metal Dr. Mario reskins. Otherwise, I think they're going to stick with franchises they don't own. His only chance in my opinion is going to be in a roster decided by somepne who isn't Sakurai nor Nintendo.
.
Want: 98%
Waluigi was a character I played as in as many Mario Party and Mario Kart games as Daisy. I definitely want him to be added. He's one of the only Nintendo characters left I am attached to. He has been creatively introduced by many fans already, but I still have a lot of interest in seeing what would be done with him in an official Smash.
Isaac
Chance: 0%
Again, Nintendo chose the DLC. They're not exactly interested in Golden Sun anymore, though they already haven't been for a long time. When it comes to first party IPs, it's clear they're trimming the fat, only ever taking a risk when absolutely necessary. It's more financially viable to rely on a small pool of highly successful IPs than a huge variety of moderately successful IPs.
Want: 1%
He's pretty much already found his place among the other underappreciated Nintendo characters in fangames and mods. These are the only places I think he'll show up in anymore. I've accepted it, so I'm not very crazy about even considering Nintendo giving him a second chance (because I just don't see them wanting to give him a second chance.) Would have been cool to see them bring back one of their smaller IPs into the Switch era, but eh, they don't really do that anymore.

 

[Kalaam]

Who do you guys actually think has any chance ?
It seems like everything is a 0%.

 

[Cadillac]

Who do you guys actually think has any chance ?
It seems like everything is a 0%.

Pretty sure Reimu was rated 10-20% or something. I'm too lazy to do research.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Who do you guys actually think has any chance ?
It seems like everything is a 0%.

Ryu Hayabusa, Crash Bandicoot, and I believe someone else got pretty high chance scores on their days.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Want: 0% - I consider "0%" to be "neutral", as there are almost no characters that I'm actually against.

Abstain or 50% would be neutral. 0% is the lowest possible rating you can give to a character, so that would indicate a character you are fully against. The scale is from 0 -100.

 

[Jomosensual]

Who do you guys actually think has any chance ?
It seems like everything is a 0%.

Scroll up for the full standings of characters we've rated since FP1 ended

 

[GoodGrief741]

Abstain or 50% would be neutral. 0% is the lowest possible rating you can give to a character, so that would indicate a character you are fully against. The scale is from 0 -100.

That is not true for everyone, I've seen many people give 0% as neutral.

 

[DaUsername]

I missed Ryu's day? Dang it, that's what i get for not paying attention. Just let the record show that I would have given him a high chance score like everyone else did.

Anyways, Waluigi time, I guess.
Chance: 0.01%
Waluigi has been highly requested for nearly a decade, but when it was time to add a new character to Smash Ultimate, someone else was chosen over him.
Was it a more popular character? No.
Was it a more important character? No.
Was it a more recent character? No.
It was a plant.
If that isn't an obvious indicator that nobody involved with the development of Smash cares about him, i don't know what is.
Want: 75%
I would be very glad if I was proven wrong, though. I am one of the many people who has wanted Waluigi in for years, and I definitely think he'd be a fun character to play as.
But hey, at least there's Brawl Minus.

First Party Lloyd
Chance: 0.01%
Unfortunately, Golden Sun is dead, and even if a new game were to be announced today, it would be too late. In Nintendo's eyes, there is no reason to make Isaac playable in Smash because there isn't any new game to shill. They can just add new FE or Pokemon character that nobody wants because at least they'd be more recognizable. If GS isn't still dead by the time Smash 6 rolls around, he might have a chance, but as of now, it's not happening.
Want: 50%
I'm giving 50% mainly because he's from an unrepresented Nintendo franchise, but as for the character himself, i don't know. I know there's a lot of magic stuff he does, but he also has a sword. At this point, I'm just kinda sick of swirdfighters in general.
But hey, at least he's in Proje-oh wait, never mind.

BD prediction: 40%
DX prediction: 30%
Noms: Gen 8 Pokemon x5