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Lara croft
Chance-50%
With lara being one of the most iconic female video game characters,i can see it happening.
I dont think being owned by square holds her back too much as i think that tomb raider operates differently than the other ips owned by square.
Want-50%
Being quite iconic and all,shed be pretty cool.
With that being said,im not going to actively campaign for her solely due to tha fact that there are other characters that i want way more than her.
Master chief
Chance-50%
I can see sakurai picking masterchief due to how much hype it will generate in the western smash community.i dont think know that much in the east holds him back too much as picks like ridley and banjo kazooie were much more popular in the west than the east,however ridley and banjo kazooie were at least known somewhat in the east and i dont know the thing could be said for masterchief.
Want-0%
Id rather have steve and i feel like masterchief getting in might dash his chances.i simply have a bigger childhood connection to minecraft than halo.
Chance - 10% - Iconic back in the day, but today? I feel like there's been something of a downturn. Her three most recent games have sold well, but have had diminishing returns. Combined with the competition between other notable franchises in the likes of Geno and 2B, it's hard to give her a complete good graces.
Want - 40% - She does nothing for me. I don't care for her, and I'm not exactly interested in her. While there is some notable mention of her, I find her disappointing in comparison to Square Enix's other choices.
Master Chief
Chance - 0.5% - Only if you go super technical does Chief have an appearance on a Nintendo console, which I consider that a basic requirement for entry. While it might happen on a stretch, I don't think this is supper likely at all.
Want - 30% - I recognize he's an industry important and all, but the thought of someone so removed from Nintendo is too foreign an idea for me to accept. I'd rather have third parties at least claim they have some importance to Nintendo, you know?
While I'm sticking with my belief that assist trophies won't be promoted, there is a small possibility that the rules could be broken. However, Waluigi would fit better in the base roster rather than as a DLC character, so there is a very high chance the ship has already sailed. If we get a Smash game after Ultimate many years from now, expect Waluigi to be a highly discussed candidate due to being highly requested.
Want - 50%
I unironically would like to see Waluigi in Smash, not just for the memes, but whatever he brings with him. He could have a moveset that revolves around the Mario sports games (like his depiction in Smash which has him in his appearance in the Mario Tennis series. It would be hilarious if a move of his involves him screaming "WAAAAH!", which is actually a move in a Brawl mod iirc.
Isaac
Chance - 0.01%
Isaac is in the same situation as Waluigi, being a highly requested character who is an assist trophy, though he isn't as highly requested as Waluigi. Here, I'm giving him the same chance as Waluigi, as I'm sticking to my "assists deconfirm" belief, though there is a small chance he could get in. Isaac is another character who I feel would fit better in the base roster despite being from a series not having a playable character. Although something to keep in mind is that "dead franchises" (Golden Sun hasn't had a new game in a long time) don't stop a character from getting in, as we learned from Banjo and Terry. Like Waluigi, if we get a Smash game after Ultimate, expect him to be a discussed candidate for the next entry.
Want - 10%
Personally, I don't have much of a connection with Golden Sun considering I've never played any of the games in the series, so I can't say too much about it. That being said, there are people who grew up playing Golden Sun and are still hoping for Isaac.
Waluigi
Chance: 1%
Before I said I thought Waluigi still had a shot to get in. I've changed my mind, I think he's pretty much dead. Not only is he a spirit, he's an assist trophy. That's a double deconfirm. The only thing going for him is the fan outcry from almost 2 years ago.
Want: 10%
I don't really get the Waluigi for smash hype train. I've never really been too into Waluigi. I think he would be better as a base roster pick.
Isaac
Chance: 0%
Same thing as Waluigi. Spirit + Assist Trophy = Deconfirmed. His series is dead too. I'm pretty sure this isn't happening.
Want: 45%
I thought Isaac was cool when I first found out who he was in brawl. I probably though I played his games before(I didn't). Not against him getting in.
Wa Wa Waaaaah Chance: 0%
Unless Sakurai goes madder than ever before, we all know Assist Trophy purgatory is where he stuck. Whenever Assist Trophies are promoted, usually they’re promoted in the game after the one where they’re an Assist Trophy. Like here:
- was an Assist Trophy in Brawl, and was promoted in Smash 4.
- and were Assist Trophies in Smash 4, and were promoted in Ultimate.
And even that mercy seems unlikely at the moment.
Want: 0%
I enjoy Waluigi as a character, but…I’d rather he stay an Assist Trophy. Especially if there’s just going to be unnecessary circlejerking.
Praise the Golden Sun!
Chance: 0%
Again, same with Waluigi, he has no chance because he’s already an Assist Trophy. Assist Trophies aren’t promoted in the same game they’re an Assist Trophy. That’s a waste of money and resources.
Want: Abstain
Never really cared much for Golden Sun. However, I understand he’s a popular request and respect that, not much more to say.
The Camelot Bros, it seems. It's surprising how two popular ATs are both from Camelot.
Came to see if people rated them 0% just because they are ATs, and I'm not surprised.
Waluigi
Chance: 10%
Character who made fans salty when revealed as an AT. I don't know much about him, but from what I heard he can use bunch of sports such as tennis or golf. His fans' massive outcry might've made Nintendo rethink about his inclusion.
Want: 67%
I generally prefer Isaac over him, but if Isaac can't get in, Waluigi is ok.
Isaac
Chance: 12%
Slightly rating Isaac higher than Waluigi since there was a thing about trademarks, and we might get some kind of GS soon. Also, there was a person saying NoA got hate calls when he got revealed as an AT, so there's the popularity. Apparently NoA was taken back by it, too. With the new GS trademark things and the popularity, he can advertise and please the fans at the same time.
Want: 100%.
Wasn't interested with him before the Grinch. But then I saw Isaac AT in the direct, and he seemed cool so I started playing Golden Sun. I loved it. He has so many moves in his arsenal, and the AT only uses magic hands to push opponents from the stage. That's a waste of potential.
Lara Croft
29.5% Chance - 69.06% Want
Winner of chance score predictions was a two-way tie between Jomosensual
and DanganZilla5
who both guessed 30.00%
Not much to say; almost the exact same as Lara's last rating in November where she got 29.75% Chance and 54.21% Want. Only major difference is that Lara saw a slight increase in want, most likely a result of more people willing to giver her a shot as her name keeps getting brought up more often in Smash speculation.
Master Chief
18.27% Chance - 60.94% Want
Winner of chance score predictions was Jomosensual
with 20.00%
Last time we rated Chief was a very long time ago: in December of 2018 where he got 4.33% Chance and 31.17% Want. A few days before that rating, the Development Director of the Halo series posted a tweet where he flat-out said Chief would not be DLC in Smash, hence the low chance score and why we haven't rated him since then. With a new wave of DLC arriving and fellow Microsoft character Banjo now in Smash, Chief definitely seems a lot likelier than before. His want score also went up significantly as a result of no longer being a hurdle for Banjo's inclusion.
-----
Winner of chance score predictions receive 5 extra noms (or 10 noms in the case of Jomosensual today).
Waluigi
Chance:10%; He's an assist trophy. However he is very popular. I'd say he's the second most likely assist trophy.
Want:100%: He's so much fun in SSF2. He could also give us more Mario spin-off representation.
Isaac.
Chance:40%: Isaac is so much more likely because his community didn't threaten Sakurai. But besides that, the trademarks heavily imply a new Golden Sun, which could easily make him a shill for that game.
Want:100%: Golden Sun is an amazing game that deserves representation in Smash. And a character that can earthbend would be awesome.
Alright, so this is probably gonna end up being a filibuster on Assist Trophies' chances rather than a specific look into either character. But very briefly, I'll point out that these characters have everything going for themselves. For Waluigi, he's an iconic and incredibly popular character in the most famous gaming franchise ever. We've had multiple comments from Nintendo on Waluigi's exclusion, so we know they're aware of the demand. He has mainstream appeal, hardcore appeal, and, for whatever it's worth, appeal with the meme crowd. This isn't a Smash bubble character, this is a character for every demographic; you could absolutely have him as an E3 reveal, or as a pass opener, or as a mic drop whenever you want because he'd just get so much press. As for Isaac, definitely a Smash bubble pick, but as far as those go he's one of the likeliest; AT or not, he's one of the most demanded, reps a new series, and therefore there's no argument that he can't come with a stage, music, Spirits, etc. If a Pass is third party only, then yeah they're dead. But given last Pass, that's not likely. So, for most people, the only thing that kills their chances is being an AT.
I have yet to see a convincing argument for why Spirits and ATs disconfirmed. Everytime I've seen one discussion about it ends with either "you can't prove they don't disconfirm" (which isn't how burden of proof works, logically speaking) or "well, just because they aren't disconfirmed doesn't mean they'll happen". To the latter... Yeah, no ****. That's the entire basis of speculation. When people say Hayabusa or Crash or Travis are likely, they don't mean they'll happen. They just mean they have several things in their favor and few against them. This community gives characters 0% chance when all they've got against them is their own perception of what Sakurai could or couldn't do. Which is insane, seeing how our own mistaken preconceptions of the last Pass led us to believe there wouldn't be any first-party characters, which bit everyone in the ass big-time.
For the record, this doesn't mean that you have to think ATs are likely. Likelihood is a matter of opinion. But I think calling ATs disconfirmed does nothing except hide said opinions instead of disclosing them and leaving them up for debate. You can think ATs are disconfirmed because, for example, you think they wouldn't be hype enough (subjective!), or because you think Sakurai considers them representation enough (no proof), or because they can't bring new stages and music (which they totally can!). Basically, what I think is that such an easy, consensus claim, hides nothing but opinions and weak arguments.
Basically, want I endeavor to do today (or more accurately, when my flight lands) is to try and dismantle the faulty arguments behind ATs being a death sentence.
Now, as for chance, I'll give Waluigi a 50% shot, he's the first AT that would probably be promoted unless Sakurai really struggles with a moveset. As for Isaac, 35%, as he only really gets in if getting new series is a priority or if Sakurai really wants to go the fanservice angle this time around. Or, I guess, if they want to promote a new GS. As for want 100% for both, Waluigi's absence is seriously a travesty especially when characters like Rosalina, Dr. Mario and ****ing Piranha Plant are in. He's much more iconic and popular than those and probably than other Mario fighters as well. As for Isaac, give Golden Sun some love. Amazing games that should definitely continue, but I'll gladly take joining the Smash pantheon and the recognition that'll come with it.
Noms: Kiryu x5
Dixie prediction: 27.8%
Dee prediction: 40.33%
Waluigi! How many times do we have to explain this?
Chance: 6%
I feel like Waluigi's ship has sailed by now. I do believe assist trophies could be upgraded, though I'm not confident in that happening. Waluigi has been a big topic of discussion within the community about how much fan requests he get and exactly what he would bring to the table. To me, Waluigi has enough merit to be in Smash. He could pull a bunch of stuff from the Mario spinoffs like different sports equipment, as well as music. So he definitely could bring new things to the table, maybe even with something cool like a Mario Party stage.
The problem is that he has been requested for years and we know that Nintendo and Sakurai are aware of all the requests. Yet, he isn't a playable character by now. I just have this feeling that Sakurai doesn't think too highly of Waluigi and doesn't think he is a good fit for the roster. When you combine that plus competition from other first parties like Isaac and there only being 6 more slots left, you have a recipe for a dire situation. I do give him the benefit of the doubt though because he would be one of the first assist trophies upgraded.
Want: 65%
Just make Waluigi a playable character so people will stop begging, please Nintendo. At this point, the fans deserve it and they have certainly made their voices heard. As for my thoughts on Waluigi, I'm not a huge fan but I think he's cool and we could use more content from Mario spinoffs (again Mario Party content nudge nudge Nintendo get the hint). I could definitely see him having a fun moveset and finally, he would make my friends happy.
Isaac Newton
Chance: 7%
He's in a similar situation as Waluigi. A fan favorite character who is an assist trophy. I give him a slightly higher score because he is from a new franchise (by new I mean not represented by a playable character) and would probably be easier to make a moveset for him. But again, I'm not confident in assist trophy upgrades. There have been discussions about a possible new Golden Sun game and if that came true, that might be the final push to get Isaac in Smash. But overall I'm not very confident in his chances.
Want: 70%
Isaac has great moveset potential and tons of great music. He is a character that should be in Smash by now. He has lots of fan requests and his inclusion would make tons of people (including some of my friends) happy. He just makes a lot of sense and would round up the roster nicely.
Predictions:
Dixie Kong - 20%
Bandana Waddle Dee - 20%
I"m imagining a wide variety of scores for these two. It's going to be an interesting day.
Chance: 20%
I would say that he has a significantly higher chance than most Assist Trophies due to the sheer fan outcry (to the point where Reggie acknowledged it and an article in the Washington Post was ran along with numerous other media outlets). I still don't think it's super likely to happen, but if there are AT promotions, I'm pretty sure he's the one (even if he's not my personal most wanted AT promotion).
Want: 60%
I'd say he's tied with Toad/Toadette for the next most important Mario character on my tier. I'm not that personally invested in him joining Ultimate, but I would've taken him over characters like Plant and I'd admit he'd probably get in over characters like Dr. Mario, Pichu and Young Link if it wasn't for "Everyone is here". Among ATs, there are a couple that are higher up on my want lists, but he's certainly nowhere near the bottom.
Isaac:
Chance: 15%
I'll give him probably the 2nd highest chance for a AT, most others would get a 1%. He certainly has the 2nd loudest fan outcry behind Waluigi, and his support thread on this site is probably one of the most enduring ones compared to most of the other Assist Trophy support threads which have mostly died out since the base game release. Of course, I've already said who's the most likely AT promotion, I certainly have my doubts about them doing even one, let alone a 2nd one, but I'd think he'd be next in line after Waluigi.
Want: 100%
Isaac still remains one of my most wanted 1st Party reps from a non represented universe. His AT appearance remains one of the biggest disappointments of the November Direct.
I mean waste as in getting rid of its Assist Trophy role and putting in unnecessary work that undoes the work that went into the Assist Trophy in the first place. More specifically, creating entirely new animations for something the devs already went to the trouble to animate as an Assist Trophy, which was probably already a lot of work.
WALUIGI •CHANCES: 50%
It’s a real toss up for me on him. Since he was one of the bit ATs to be shown off early, Nintendo probably has probably considered him since then. But also, what stage, music, Spirits, etc. could he bring to the DLC? I have no clue. But Sakurai has surprised us many times before. He could even be a bonus like Plant was.
•WANT: 60%
Now, if I was asked this years ago, the rating would have been much lower. But these past 2 years, Waluigi has grown on me and it’s so bizarre that he’s not playable yet in one of the biggest “party” games there. It’s not right.
ISAAC •CHANCES: 75%
The desire for him (and a new Golden Sun game) is getting stronger and stronger whether you know it or not and Nintendo should know this by now. After such a brutal “deconfirmation” of Isaac (and many others) as an AT, it basically woke up the Golden Sun community to stop going into hiding and actually make our voice heard. With rumors of Camelot’s new project/game leaning towards a new Golden Sun game, Isaac would be a perfect opportunity to promote the new game. Like Hero did for DQ11. He can easily bring a stage, new music, new spirits, etc.
•WANT: 100% & beyond!
Since Melee, my top 3 most wanted have been Sonic, Isaac and Simon. 2/3 now in. Isaac is the FINAL character I need as a fighter. We don’t have any character who can earthbend, create giant magical hands, use Pokémon-like elemental creatures called Djinn, summon divine gods/beasts/demons, or basically be the Avatar: Master of all four elements. He would be very unique to the roster.
Dixie: 60%
BWD: 70%
Nominate: Doom Slayer (Not sure if I’m doing it right)
I mean waste as in getting rid of its Assist Trophy role and putting in unnecessary work that undoes the work that went into the Assist Trophy in the first place.
There's no need to get rid of the AT at all, we have several characters pulling dual roles (Chrom being a fighter, FS and Mii Costume, Duck Hunt and DK being fighters and stage elements, Toad and Tom Nook being in several movesets, etc).
More specifically, creating entirely new animations for something the devs already went to the trouble to animate as an Assist Trophy, which was probably already a lot of work.
I mean waste as in getting rid of its Assist Trophy role and putting in unnecessary work that undoes the work that went into the Assist Trophy in the first place. More specifically, creating entirely new animations for something the devs already went to the trouble to animate as an Assist Trophy, which was probably already a lot of work.
That was already 2-3 years ago. Why would they care about it now? Think about it. "This character is a heavily demanded character that can please the fans and(for Isaac) promote an upcoming game. But nope! I've already worked on his AT over 3 years ago and it would be a waste to make a new animation even though the fans would love it!" It's ridiculous!
Big Daddy (BioShock) x85
Ryo Hazuki x80
Chun-Li x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x70
Decidueye x68
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x66
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Mii Costume: Quote x65
Ring Fit Adventurer x65
Meowth x64
Segata Sanshiro x60
[Rerate] Paper Mario x60
50 - 25
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Earthworm Jim x50
Bubsy x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x31
Concept: Darksiders rep x30
Concept: DLC music packs x30
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x25
Under 25
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x23
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x22
[Rerate] Kratos x20
Gnar (League of Legends) x20
Terra Branford x18
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x17
Zeraora x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x10
Falinks x10
Black Shadow x8
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x7
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Sirfetch'd x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Concept: Level-5 rep x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Ahri (League of Legends) x5
Otto Matic x5
[Rerate] Steve x5
Chell x3
Magolor x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
3 Mage Sisters x2
Taranza x1
Kazuma Kiryu fights past 200 noms.
Ring Fit Adventurer runs past 50 noms.
Today's new nominee is a rerate of Steve with 5 noms.
Chance: 30% - Since people are insistent that rules don't exist (and this is coming from a Waluigi supporter), it's honestly a hyper toss-up as to his chances. On one hand he's a Mario frontrunner and has several years of requests. His exclusion and relegation to assist trophy resulted in such backlash that Nintendo had to take notice. Reggie officially acknowledged the reaction and Nintendo now knows just how much people want this character. Sure, he hasn't had a game of his own, but he's been in Mario spinoffs for over 20 years and has three Smash appearances as an assist trophy. His personality as a cheated gives him so much hilarious moveset potential, and he could easily bring in moves to represent the spinoffs since most of the current Mario cast in-game sticks to mostly main series titles for their inspiration. All it really takes is the OK from Sakurai at this point.
On the other hand, a lot of work goes into assist trophies and it may be weird from a marketing standpoint to have the face of assist trophies suddenly become playable, Still, the sales Waluigi would generate would more than offset any confusion, and we just have to see which path Nintendo chooses.
Want: 100% - This character is hilarious, has a lot of history, has a lot of moveset potential, I don't know what else to say! and as a huge fan of the Mario series I'm always happy to have the series gain another rep. And Sakurai got super creative with a generic enemy in Piranha Plant, I honestly can't wait to see what Sakurai would come up with!
Isaac
Chance: 5% - While he'd be a strong contender for Smash 6 base roster, I don't see him being promoted as DLC. If Nintendo's gonna promote an assist trophy, it's going to be Waluigi, who got special recognition for his demand. Furthermore Golden Sun as a franchise lays dormant and hasn't been very financially successful. Isaac's main claim to fame is the fact that he is represented as an assist and was brought back specifically for Ultimate, along with his small but vocal fan demand. Golden Sun was also given a new item in Ultimate as well, which does show that Nintendo still recognizes the franchise. But overall, I just don't see him being promoted for DLC when there are more profitable options. Ans if it's one thing Nintendo cares about, it's sales numbers.
Want: 50% - I have no experience with the franchise and don't care much for his design (plus JRPGs already got a lot of love in Pass #1). However, I'm giving him a decent want score since I honestly feel a lot of sympathy for his fans. Isaac was an assist in Brawl, absent from 4, and finally been brought back as a late reveal assist trophy alongside Shadow. They had so much teasing them during Ultimate's prerelease. The Golden Sun reference in one of Sakurai's images of the day, the reveal of the Golden Sun healing circle as an item, the delay of Isaac's assist reveal until the last minute, and much more. Pair that up with the false hope caused by the Grinch Leak and you have a serious uphill battle for Isaac's fans. Someday I do hope Isaac makes the roster so that his fans may finally have their moment in the sun.
Nominations:
Bubsy x5
Predictions:
Dixie Kong - 74,83%
Bandana Waddle Dee - 53.56%
But it is looking unlikely imo. But let's look at them individually
Waluigi
He's got a lot going for him, and lot against. He's a very famous and extremely popular Mario character with many games under his name. He's wacky and zany and the possibility of a playable role has been acknowledged. But he's hardly important. To this day he's never had any real significance aside from being essentially roster filler. He hasn't even had an RPG appearance. He's got stiff competition from Mario as well, Toad and King Boo. King Boo especially I think many underestimate.
And because Waluigi doesn't really have much to his name, it's hard to imagine him getting bundled with a stage and music. Do you just go Waluigi Pinball? And just done random spin-off songs we don't have yet?
I'll go 5% chance, 90% want
I do want that assist barrier broken, and I want more First Party characters.
Now Isaac
While Golden Sun certainly has its fans, Nintendo doesn't seem to care much about it anymore. Also Mii Costume doesn't help matters. Unlike Waluigi though, stage and songs to go with is no issue, even spirits if we get more. It's too difficult to really call. But unless we get another Banjo I don't think it's happening. And I wouldn't put Isaac on Banjo's level
Chance is 4% (I do think Waluigi is probably the most likely to break the assist curse) 70% want
Before I do my scores, I wanna get this out of the way: the inevitable additions to the totem.
Chance Key: Green = Frontrunner (50+%), Blue = Solid Shot (35+%), White is Feasible (10+%), and Red is below that, Pipe Dream.
By chance:
Ryu Hayabusa: 59.48% Chance
Crash Bandicoot: 59.26% Chance
Lloyd Irving: 50.29% Chance
Dante: 49.38% Chance
Phoenix Wright: 43.94% Chance
Geno: 42.50% Chance
Sora: 40.58% Chance
Arle Nadja: 39.29% Chance
Heihachi Mishima: 37.58% Chance
2B: 35.41% Chance
Sol Badguy: 31.00% Chance
Lara Croft: 29.50% Chance
Reimu Hakurei: 24.98% Chance
Dovahkiin: 19.69% Chance
Nightmare: 18.74% Chance
Master Chief: 18.27% Chance
Tracer: 17.37% Chance
Ragna the Bloodedge: 14.25% Chance
Rayman: 11.53% Chance
Spyro the Dragon: 9.58% Chance
KOS-MOS: 8.87% Chance
Neku Sakuraba: 6.46% Chance
The Knight: 4.62% Chance
Thrall: 3.07% Chance
Doomguy: 2.86% Chance (widely considered out of the running)
Vault Boy: 1.82% Chance
Hat Kid: 0.85% Chance
Want key: Pink = Community Favorite (#FF69B4) [60+%], Yellow = Popular (40+%), Purple is Average (25+%), Black is Unpopular (below 25%). Crash. however, is a major outlier, being the only character to break 75%. Him and Wright are the only characters to break 65%, and by association, 70%. In order for things to make sense, I had to use a different scale.
By want:
Crash Bandicoot: 75.78% Want
Phoenix Wright: 70.91% Want
Lara Croft: 69.06% Want
Ryu Hayabusa: 64.32% Want
Dante: 64.23% Want
2B: 64.09% Want
Geno: 62.93% Want
Master Chief: 60.94% Want
Arle Nadja: 60.50% Want
Reimu Hakurei: 60.05% Want
Nightmare: 57.27% Want
Sora: 54.44% Want
Neku Sakuraba: 53.89% Want
Heihachi: 53.60% Want
Rayman: 52.35% Want
Spyro the Dragon: 52.04% Want
Sol Badguy: 51.18% Want
The Knight: 50.12% Want
Lloyd Irving: 47.85% Want
Dovahkiin: 47.40% Want
Doomguy: 44.15% Want
Ragna the Bloodedge: 37.19% Want
KOS-MOS: 35.24% Want
Thrall: 26.50% Want
Hat Kid: 23.69% Want
Tracer: 22.73% Want
Vault Boy: 20.40% Want
Reimu hangs onto the top 10 for dear life as we get closer and closer to shoving her out of the most wanted. Arle and even the Chief himself also have to worry. Nightmare and Sora are no longer among the top 10, and currently the list is small enough that the top 10 are the biggest notable names. Spoilers for how this day is going, but I think at least Reimu's goose is cooked for top 10, and Arle is probably going down too. If not today, tomorrow.
I'm very surprised that Lara ranked so highly? You'd think people would talk about her more in regards to Smash, but... not really?
As for chance, it's about what you'd expect, though Chief got a lot less of a rap than I expected.
Now for the main event.
----
That guy who calls you lousy
Chance: Now, this is the most interesting chance rating yet. Waluigi is an Assist Trophy, and if Smash 4 is any indication, you're done if you have an active role in battle. However his special fan demand case where he, above all other Assist Trophies, got a humongous outcry. What applied in Smash 4 does not necessarily apply here, lest Ridley be taken out of the roster. Waluigi is a peculiar case, because those who dismiss him (for chance) rely mostly on assuming it can't, or at least it won't, because it hasn't, a trend all too common to Smash speculation that many, including myself, have fallen victim to.
Questions Nintendo might be asking: What do we gain from adding him? How good is his attach rate prospected to be? Is there a new audience, or do we already have a character that connects to that audience?
Questions the dev team/fans might be asking: Can Sakurai give him a fun, interesting moveset, be it through references or new stuff made up for Smash (the answer is YES)? What sort of content can Waluigi bring; that is, does he meet the requirements for a full Challenger Pack? While a stage would be easy because Waluigi Pinball, music (outside of stuff like Waluigi's Island and Destruction Dance) and especially Waluigi related Spirits would be a massive challenge. But it is more than likely doable... maybe other spinoff characters for Spirits?
More than anything, though, the case of Waluigi is interesting mostly because I believe he is the one and only Assist Trophy with a real shot. Did he genuinely fail to make it in, or will we be all given a purple surprise at any point? Waluigi could come at any time. He truly is the wildcard that Nintendo has in the wings. He's considered a Goku-level pipe dream right now, and despite not having a game to himself, this guy getting in is going to turn heads around the globe.
More than Crash (but less than Arle), Waluigi heavily relies on the pass being decided on in 2019, or at least Volume 2 being decided on in 2018. If it was... I think he's a lock, 100%. If it was decided early on, though, he might be genuinely screwed because of his base game content. 0%. For that reason, I will give him a 50% chance of happening, as when the pass was decided upon is key in my eyes.
Want: This is not going to be half as complex, 65%. Waluigi, in my eyes, is important even though he doesn't have starring roles. Because, well, generations upon generations grew up with games he's in, pick him and go. From his hilarious taunts, to the skits he got up to in the GameCube and early Wii era, Waluigi was, and is, an icon of unspoken genres that are technically not represented. As well, while many dismiss them as mere spinoffs, I think the fact that "mere spinoffs" outperform not only main series Mario, but even Pokémon the cash cow, says a lot. On an objective scale, I think Waluigi is the second most important Mario character missing from Smash's roster, behind only Toad. It's a bitter pill to swallow since I'd rather have him, but I believe he's more important than Paper Mario, as while I think the latter had incredible games and has fantastic potential, Waluigi remains popular and relevant to this day while PM seems to have fallen on hard times. For the same reason, I honestly believe he is more important than Geno, too.
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"Oh, wait, which way was the 3DS/Wii U DLC tryouts?"
Chance: 5%. Isaac's fandom didn't give up because he was an Assist, but I believe only one character stuck in that role has the star power and outcry to open the door, and that's Waluigi. The hype for Isaac was mostly squashed, even if a bunch of fans have stuck around, after not only the Grinch leak was busted, but his Assist Trophy came back. I don't think it was nearly enough to reach mass claim, however. With that, I think Isaac, and basically most other Assist Trophies, are gonna sit in the bin of death. Isaac could probably see the light of day in the next game's base roster, though.
Want: 35%. I've used him in Brawl mods and SSF2 so I've seen what he can do. For what it's worth, though, I'm not exactly a fan of his home game. This is a character definitely for the fans, and not much else.
Paper Mario x 5, even though I just said he's less important than Waluigi. Dixie Kong and Bandana Dee are in much the same boat, but the DK fandom is sated while Kirby's is not. Dixie, 6.39%. Bandana Dee, 14.02%.
Lara Croft
29.5% Chance - 69.06% Want
Winner of chance score predictions was a two-way tie between Jomosensual
and DanganZilla5
who both guessed 30.00%
Not much to say; almost the exact same as Lara's last rating in November where she got 29.75% Chance and 54.21% Want. Only major difference is that Lara saw a slight increase in want, most likely a result of more people willing to giver her a shot as her name keeps getting brought up more often in Smash speculation.
Master Chief
18.27% Chance - 60.94% Want
Winner of chance score predictions was Jomosensual
with 20.00%
Last time we rated Chief was a very long time ago: in December of 2018 where he got 4.33% Chance and 31.17% Want. A few days before that rating, the Development Director of the Halo series posted a tweet where he flat-out said Chief would not be DLC in Smash, hence the low chance score and why we haven't rated him since then. With a new wave of DLC arriving and fellow Microsoft character Banjo now in Smash, Chief definitely seems a lot likelier than before. His want score also went up significantly as a result of no longer being a hurdle for Banjo's inclusion.
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Winner of chance score predictions receive 5 extra noms (or 10 noms in the case of Jomosensual today).
I'd be very surprised if any base game content decided what characters won't be DLC. Obviously characters won't get in if they wouldn't be able to fill a new spirit board or have a unique stage, but I don't think that's a major concern for most spirits/ATs people discuss upgrades for...
Waluigi: 20%. I definitely could see it happening. Waluigi's fan demand is intense and ever-present, to the point where it has basically entered the mainstream as the quintessential common Smash request. My question is how Sakurai would decide to represent him in terms of non-character content. A Mario Tennis stage could work. A Spirit Board of a bunch of Waluigis would be funny. It'd be a funny character, though I imagine his pack would effectively become the DLC character equivalent of a ****post when spirits/stage are considered...
Want: 30%. Honestly, I mostly would just want to see the internet freakout. I'd be highly entertained by it for a short while but, honestly, I don't think the novelty would last very long for me personally. The memes would be legendary though.
Isaac: 20%. I'd raise these odds if Camelot's next project is revealed to be a Golden Sun game, but I'll leave it at this for now in case it is revealed to be more Mario Golf. Isaac is a popular character from a series that, while "niche" in name, a lot of people seem to have fond memories of. His Smash fanbase, while not the biggest, is certainly one of the most persistent, having existent as far back as Brawl. Golden Sun has a few songs in the base game and some spirits, but certainly nothing prohibitive - I mean, they don't even have all the party members or villains yet.
Want: 100%. Isaac is a character I like a lot, even if my memory of Golden Sun has faded with age. I also just generally hope Camelot will be let out of Mario spin-off prison one day... I enjoyed Aces a tonne, but that's partly because of it having a very GS-esque story.
Was planning on calling them Lauren Craft and Minister Chef but forgot on the day of the rating
Before I jump into the AT ratings, I just want to start by saying that while I don't think we get any AT promotions, these two and probably Shadow are the most likely ones by far. And while ATs weren't going to happen for Fighters Pass 1, I think now that we're on our 2nd round there's a chance they're back in play. Now into the actual ratings
Waluigi
Chance 10 - The issue I have here(other than the big one) is that I'm not sure what extra content he could bring to the game. Waluigi Pinball could be a stage. Not sure of what music tracks he'd have and for spirits I have completely no idea either. We know the fan demand is here though so that's no problem. I'm just not seeing where all the other stuff is going to come from here unless they shove him into Warioware(which isn't something they should do) and give him a bunch of stuff I dont know about from there. He's probably going to have to wait until Smash 6 for his time. His recent spike in popularity and relevance makes him feel like easily the most likely choice to be an upgrade.
Want 60 - Yeah, Id be down for this. Waluigi is a good deal of fun and one of the few big first parties who aren't in that really should be. IDK if Id main him, but I really think he should be here.
Isaac
Chance 10 - Tons of fan demand here help carry the case and unlike some other AT and Spirit promotion he still has plenty of extra content that could come with him. No stages, 2 music tracks, and one mii costume aren't enough to make me think there's a problem here. Only thing that's really a question mark for me is the spirits but there's probably an easy way around it. The main issue here is relevance which is why I think he's not in the game already. That, and it's still unclear if there are any future plans for the Golden Sun series. There's been rumors for a while now that we would be getting a new game and nothing materialized. And if there's no plans for more GS content in the future I have a hard time seeing Nintendo picking Isaac when we'll have a Pokemon expansion pass to promote along with.... uh.... whatever's coming this year that they haven't bothered to announce for whatever reason(seriously Nintendo, we're all dying for a direct soon.) Point being here is that most first party characters included as DLC have either been returning vets or characters who were here to promote a new game. Isaac fits neither. With Waluigi there's always a new Mario game in development so that's easy enough, but with Isaac that's his biggest hurdle.
Want 60 - Isaac screams moveset potential. I don't really know that much about the series or character but everything I've seen about him make it look like he would be super unique and fun. Plus his fanbase is probably the 2nd most tortured behind the Geno one right now and they're nowhere as annoying as the hardcore Geno fans have become so I have no issue with wanting to see them happy. Seems like a pick most would at least be chill with.
Isaac
Chance - 75%
He's the next character off the top of the ballot. Or at least I'd be very surprised if he wasn't. AT decisions are so far removed from the DLC FP2 decisions; ignoring a character just for being an AT would be super silly. Everybody is totally sleeping on him imo; idk why everyone thinks all these third party randos or even Geno have any more chance than him. Banjo's playable, so he has a shot even without a series revival, but if a new GS is somehow on the way, then that only spikes his chances.
Of course a lot of people disagree with probably most of that but there ya have it.
Want - 99%
Nobody gets 100%, but Isaac has a lot of unique attributes and represents one of the most critically acclaimed games on its system. He's also been long requested since Brawl.
Waluigi
Chance - 30%
I think there's other big requests that are ahead of him in line still, but he's getting closer to the front. But him being an AT, as with Isaac above, doesn't discount him.
Want - 50%
He's an interesting character and has quite a few reasons to make it in at some point. I wouldn't say I share a special connection to Waluigi, but he's popular and can bring a lot to the table. Another Mario rep isn't really a problem given the importance to Nintendo, especially if it's for a big name like this.
I guess to start off I should clarify, I don't find myself rating by percentages very accurately, so the percentages could seem off to my own feelings
Example: only about 1-3 things get to 100% want for reference, to show they are my most wanted.
Isaac:
Chance: 15%
Unfortunately, while I think he deserves to be much more likely, I have to rate him begrudgingly low as I do with similar cases thinking cases. Decently requested, but Golden Sun hasn't had a new game in quite some time and while the fan support is there, with how DLC is going unfortunately (which isn't even to my liking), it doesn't really feel they would aim for him too much.
Want: 35%
Probably would be higher if I've played Golden Sun (or more at least, have Dark Dawn but only played it for about 5 minutes), but I don't really mind the idea of including him, I'm not really much of a supporter myself either and while I think some other suggestions which are also as overdue to be in as much, if not more are way too underrated, which isn't really his fault to begin with I suppose and doesn't make him much worse.
But he's a fine suggestion in the end really, and makes a fair amount of sense too, so I'd be happy for his fans after waiting for so long.
Waluigi:
Chance: 35%
I genuinely believe the big Waluigi demand could help him quite some, but in the other hand, I also don't feel it'll skyrocket it too high for this installment at least.
Want: 50%
Well it's Waluigi, what can I say. Yeah he's a very overrated request and definitely not the most long overdue character, not even for Mario either that being Toad. But in the end if we put that aside which is something the fandom is responsible for anyway, he's still a fairly straightforward request with tons of personality.
Besides, I like Waluigi.
Waluigi's a genie Chance: 30%
When Nintendo is at the helm I think any upgrade is possible, even Assist Trophies. That said, Walugi is by far the likeliest out of any of them. Being a mainstay Mario character does that but if that isn't enough, his AT reveal caused an uproar reaching outside the Smash bubble into the mainstream to the point where multiple articles were written about it. I'm sure Nintendo caught wind of this and would grasp at just how profitable he would be. Implementing a whole challenger pack around him might be tough, especially a Spirit board, but I don't think that would hold him back in the end.
Want: 65%
Mostly just to be living the moment seeing the internet react to him. I don't play Mario spinoffs often nor do I play Waluigi in said games but I do see the potential for a wacky and zany fighter.
He delayed the September direct guys! Chance: 0.1%
I did just say Waluigi is the likeliest AT to be upgrated and I stand by that. Isaac or Golden Sun as a whole are just nowhere near as popular as him. The Golden Sun series has been dormant for a long time. I recall sayings about how Isaac was never even considered to be playable for Ultimate and that people at Nintendo where suprised at the negative reaction at him being an AT again (don't quote me on this). Regardless, Golden Sun isn't mainstream so I don't think it changes much even if Isaac would technically introduce a new world to Smash.
I see people here giving him a high score due to the Golden Sun trademarked being renewed? I'm not familiar with the situation but I don't think trademark renewals often amount to anything. Even if a new game is in the works, it still doesn't guarantee Isaac a spot.
Want: 50%
I haven't played the series but getting another unrepresented Nintendo franchise would be nice I guess, tho I'd prefer Rhythm Heaven in that regard. Still, I'm not losing any sleep over the role he has now.
Dixie Kong: 5.52%
Bandana Dee: 19.67%
Reporter and Wrestler x5
Alrigth.
Isaac: 60%
Just the fact that nobody believes in it because of the AT reputation and all makes me think he'd create great hype just for that.
But given all the contextual evidence I think he likely is in pass2. If not, he is a 95% for Smash 6 anyway.
With last year's trademark, the consistent support he had over the years and especially since Ultimate's speculation started, representing an era which has basically no representation in smash, and that the 2nd pass was likely decided last year around august/september and they didn't have a lot of time to negotiate 3rd parties at least for the beginning of the pass and they have to be constantly working on a character, I think he is more likely as one of the first characters of that second pass.
Waluigi: 50%
More or less for the same reasons as Isaac, I just think he is less likely because he wouldn't promote a new game the same way Isaac would.
Since there is already a lot of mario characters too, that could play a part. But then again, it didn't prevent Byleth inclusion.
Not as popular? He polled 2nd only to Banjo on the SmashBros reddit poll last year. In fact he nearly always polls higher. I'll give you he's more recognisable, since Isaac doesn't have the mainstream presence, but Sakurai literaly said in a Direct that this doesn't matter.
Anyway, here's mine to kinda explain my thoughts.
Waluigi Chance: 15%
Waluigi is in a weird spot where he's one of the last remaining Mario characters you'd normally expect in a party/sports game (without going into Goombas and the like). So at this stage he really feels left out. But on the other hand, I can kind of understand his exclusion.
-He doesn't have his own game series (Wario does)
-His stage potential is lacking (it's there but all I can think of is Waluigi Pinball or a Tennis court)
-He's from an existing franchise, or game world as he put it (if we're to believe Sakurai is trying to cross over as many as possible, then another Mario rep goes against that)
-He is still an assist trophy and although I think it's possible for them to be promoted if Sakurai wants, it's not been confirmed so the chance has to be lowered.
Waluigi Want: 10%
As for want, I'm fairly indifferent wabout Waluigi, but I think his inclusion would be funny and it'll make a lot of people happy he's in. His inclusion would hopefully open the door to other assist trophies like Isaac getting in.
Isaac Chance: 40%
Isaac is in the same boat as Waluigi in that he's an assist trophy, but here's my reasoning as to why he might have a shot over Waluigi.
-He has always polled pretty high in the build up to ultimate and in the ballot exit poll. He would often be in the top 5, under Ridley, K. Rool and Banjo. He does have fan demand, evidence by the disappointment of so many that he was made a Trophy again.
-Isaac is from an unrepresented franchise. Even though he's had a presence in Smash since Brawl, and he now has the spirits, the mii costumes to go along with his assist trophy, still no playable fighter or stage.
-Speaking of which, he has great stage potential (Venus Lighthouse most likely), stage cameos, loads of great music.
-He has so much potential in his moveset since he has so many abilities to draw from in his original game, but the most likely is his Earth psynergy, which lets him manipulate the ground and plants. It would be unique to smash in such a degree.
-Here's the kicker: Camelot and Nintento EPD2 have been quiet for about 2 years. What are they working on? If not Mario Golf, then it could be a new Golden Sun game. On top of that, a new Golden Sun trademark was raised in 2018, that got approved late 2019. This doesn't guarantee anything, but I don't see Nintendo paying for a TRademark for nothing.
But yes, he is an assist trophy. In my eyes this is the only thing holding him back from Ultimate. Literally the only thing. But I still think if Sakurai accepts Isaac in this round of DLC he will just find a way around it. Even if the trophy is disabled whenever Isaac fights, like he already is on some stages.
Isaac Want: 100%
Obviously. I am a big supporter of Isaac and there is a lot of bias in my perspective, I could be completely off ball on how Nintendo feels about it. I just think his chances are a lot higher than most. I'm pretty sure if we're getting 1st party reps in this 2nd fighters pass, they'll have to dip into spirits at this point. So upgrading an assist trophy isn't entirely out of bounds, I feel.
Chance: 30% - I do think he has a decent chance, if only because his sudden burst of popularity made it so far out into the public that even Reggie was asked about it. He's an interesting case where it seems like he enjoys more popularity from the casual playerbase (places like Reddit and Twitter) than the hardcore speculation community, as he's most often just been a middling request around these parts, so from Nintendo's point of view he'd be a character that appeals to a pretty wide audience, and of course a chance of some good PR given the reaction to his deconfirmation way back.
The one big question looming over him is of course whether ATs are up for upgrades or not. I kinda see the point that there's a pretty significant gameplay element attached to them, but at the same time I also feel that if they want to add a character, they're not going to let something they have complete control over get in their way. Some people suggest that they could just disable the AT as long as the character is being played, but I think they do care about having a clear distinction between characters and ATs for clarity's sake, and as such they'd probably remove the AT altogether. In Waluigi's case that's really not a particularly big deal, because his AT has been in action since Brawl, and it's still all the same assets from back then, just slightly touched up, so as far as AT promotions go he's in a pretty good spot regardless of how they'd choose to do it.
The last thing to take into consideration is potential competition in the form of Geno, who I generally consider more likely. Now, I'm really not sure whether they'd actually be competing with each other, especially taking the different ownership situations into account, but there's always the chance that Nintendo don't want two packs dedicated to the same series (and three DLC characters in total). On the other hand, if there's any franchise that can justify getting that much content, it's Mario. It's not a major thing, but I do think it's at least worth bringing up.
Want: 65% - Waluigi is always fun to have around, so I'd be down for it. It's not a priority for me to see him in the game, but like with pretty much every Mario character, there's good reason for him to be in, and he'd bring his own unique appeal.
Isaac:
Chance: 5% - I hate to be harsh towards this guy, because the support behind him is so honest, but I struggle to see a scenario where he makes it in. Isaac is popular, that much is true, but if they want to appeal to the hardcore speculation community with a Ridley/K. Rool/Banjo type of addition, then there's nowhere else to look than Geno atm. Isaac is a clear step down the ladder from that level, and unfortunately for him that's pretty much his only gateway into the game given the bad spot his franchise finds itself in atm. If we get a new Golden Sun featuring Isaac, then that would provide another reason for him to get in, but I heavily doubt that'll happen, and until then he's not so overwhelmingly popular that he can overcome his deficiencies. In a lot of regards he's almost there, it wouldn't take much for him to become a frontrunner, but ultimately he falls short imo.
Want: 60% - I mostly give this moderately positive rating because I have a lot of time for his fanbase, which has always been pretty tactful in comparison to so many others. Seeing a revival happen through Smash is always very charming as well, so it'd be cool to see how Golden Sun content would look and sound with a fresh coat of paint. I don't have any personal experience with either him or his series, but I'm always up for seeing longtime fan requests get in.
The thing about Waluigi is, that I think Nintendo intentionally makes him an AT. Pretty sure back in Sm4sh Sakurai made a picture of Waluigi AT saying "Just because you try hard doesn't mean you get in" or something like that. I would be ok if they decides to break it though.
Ah, bugger, missed the last day again. . . oh well.
Wah-lelujah Chance: 25%
Out of all the Assist Trophies, I honestly think that Waluigi has the best shot. His snub received a lot of mainstream attention all over the Internet, to the point that Reggie himself was asked about it in an interview. Additionally, he's also probably the one first-party character that I could see as an opener to Fighter Pass Vol. 2 on a similar shock level as Joker was for the first one.
Want: 100%
I want the guy. Not really anything else to say there.
Not Felix
Chance: 10%
Well, others have already said it, and I've already said it, but if there's gonna be an AT promotion, then Waluigi is most likely first in line. With the status of his series and lack of mainstream success or appeal, Isaac has simply too much working against him. But support for him was pretty vocal during the pre-release period of Ultimate, so who knows.
Want: 90%
Personally I'd prefer Felix over Isaac, but I'd honestly be okay with either. Again, not much else to say here.
Nominating Any Octopath Traveler rep x5.
Predicting Dixie Kong to get around 11.11%.
Predicting Bandana Dee to get around 6.79%.
Both - Chance: 0%
Why would they take the time to make a 3D model, code in all they need to make an AT only to later make them playable? ATs have always been there as a consolation prize. They can be promoted to playable (e.g. Isabelle) but only from one game to another, not within the same game. It'd make no sense, especially considering Nintendo is calling the shots. What would they gain from doing so? The character is already there, people are already talking about them. Mission complete. Of course, they'd be talked about more if they were playable but why pursue those ATs when they have much bigger, juicier fish to angle? Nintendo the corporation definitely wouldn't pick them for DLC.
Waluigi - Want: 0%
I dislike the character. I don't think I need any more reason.
Isaac - Want: 70%
Used to be one of my most wanted, but the fanbase couldn't tolerate speaking ill of Isaac's chances, resorting to mocking me and all to shut me up. Maybe I was wrong, maybe I was right. What is certain is that their reaction was wrong and tarnished my memory of a character I once loved... just like Geno. I'm saddened by this state of affairs but what can you do. That aside, Isaac definitely has potential for a very interesting moveset. It'd be hard to rep Golden Sun with just 1 kit, but I'd love to see what that'd give.
Chance: 15 to 20%. The 15% is due to his popularity, him being a Mario character, and him representing spinoff. The 20% is if he gets a bigger role, which might be possible, but most likely in a Wario game. While he is an assist trophy, he is one of the most likely characters to get promoted (I see Shadow have a higher chance of being promoted). Competition also contributes to this factor.
Want: 55 to 60%. I see potential in him going smash, and he would be fun to play as. And as long as characters are fun to play as, they are fine by me. However, there are characters I rather get in as the next Mario Rep (Fawful, Geno and Dark Bowser), or get promoted from being summoned to being playable (Shovel Knight, Bomberman, Krystal, Midna, Shadow or Knuckles and Lugia), but Waluigi could work, and if he gets in, some parts of the community would die down.
Issac
Chance: 15%. While his franchise have not seen a game ion a very long time, Issac getting in could revive it, but it's not guaranteed. Like Waluigi, Issac is also an Assist Trophy, but he skipped out of the fourth game. He has a chance of being promoted, and has similar ratings to Waluigi. Competition would put a dent, but Issac has a good chance of appearing in the game.
Want: 90%. I think Issac would totally be a fun character to play as, and with more knowledge to his home games, he has lots of potential moveset ideas. But who knows, Rathalos could be a boss in his classic mode to represent one of his bosses in his home games. Overall, Issac has tons of potential to appear in this game, and we could use more soundtracks.
Predictions: Dixie Kong (15%) and Bandanna Dee (15%)
Noms: 2 for Falinks and 3 for Echo: Lord Fredrick (67E)
Tbh I don't see how making a model 3 years ago hurts the chances of anything. It would rather make the work easier.
Nintendo litteraly has nothing to lose, how could this be considering "wasting work done before" ? Any person doing creative work would tell you that redoing something they did years ago but more complete would tell you it is not.
Why pursue Ridley while they could have made him a boss again by using his Smash 4 model yhey made a few years before and hasn't appeared in a new game for years instead of going for much bigger fish ?
was an Assist Trophy in Brawl, and was promoted in Smash 4.
