Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Guynamednelson]

It would rather make the work easier.

Not really. ATs have certain corner cuts designed to make them much easier to process than fighters, bosses or even some background cameos. In case you're wondering, this means AT Rathalos has lower-quality textures than the boss.

 

[Ninjaed]

Why pursue Ridley while they could have made him a boss again by using his Smash 4 model yhey made a few years before and hasn't appeared in a new game for years instead of going for much bigger fish ?

Banjo & Kazooie are from Microsoft. I don't think I need to explain why it's a good idea to have a partnership with them.
Ridley is in the base roster.

Edit: actually I'm not quite sure what you meant anymore...

 

[Guynamednelson]

Banjo & Kazooie are from Microsoft. I don't think I need to explain why it's a good idea to have a partnership with them.

Do you not remember people doubting Banjo-Kazooie due to Halo and Minecraft also being owned by Microsoft?

 

[Kalaam]

Not really. ATs have certain corner cuts designed to make them much easier to process than fighters, bosses or even some background cameos. In case you're wondering, this means AT Rathalos has lower-quality textures than the boss.

True, but it could serve as a base. I say "could". But even if they do a fighter model from scratch (and likely redesign him a bit if it's based on a remake) they wouldn't have to touch the AT. Which can be disabled when the fighter is played anyway.

Banjo & Kazooie are from Microsoft. I don't think I need to explain why it's a good idea to have a partnership with them.
Ridley is in the base roster.

Edit: actually I'm not quite sure what you meant anymore...

Why would that even matter, base or dlc ? Limiting your options because of things you did years before, when you have the possibility of doing more now is...weird. I really don't get why you are so deadset on him.
Thinking that they are unlikely is fine, but being so categoric to say they are impossible is stupid.

 

[Ninjaed]

Why would that even matter, base or dlc ? Limiting your options because of things you did years before, when you have the possibility of doing more now is...weird. I really don't get why you are so deadset on him.
Thinking that they are unlikely is fine, but being so categoric to say they are impossible is stupid.

Who is talking about limiting options? I said in my post that promotion from one game to another is completely possible, with an example to boot. Nothing stops them from giving us boss Ridley with fighter Ridley if that's what you're asking, but they'd make so in the base roster. With DLC, Nintendo will want to make money. Like it or not that's their #1 priority. And considering all the great candidates to choose from (with even companies like Blizzard pitching in to get in), AT promotion is too low to even be considered with only 6 precious slots remaining.

 

[Guynamednelson]

With DLC, Nintendo will want to make money. Like it or not that's their #1 priority

Oh, I know. And guess what? It's inevitable that whoever they choose will make money regardless of whether or not they have enough arbitrary hype points, because this is a game with 17 million+ copies sold and rabid fanbase that always wants more.

 

[Kalaam]

With DLC, Nintendo will want to make money. Like it or not that's their #1 priority. And considering all the great candidates to choose from (with even companies like Blizzard pitching in to get in), AT promotion is too low to even be considered with only 6 precious slots remaining.

Then give me one reason why Isaac, for example, wouldn't make money ? Especially if he is used to promote a new Golden Sun game. It's an old character with a lot of support, that has been requested for a long time and is quite known among the fans already. If Byleth, who was considered impossible because too recent, could get in and sell, there is ZERO reasons Isaac couldn't.
Not that it WILL happen, but it CAN.

 

[clearandsweet]

Sometimes I forget that not everyone on this site or at large is following every Camelot-relevant thing that happens and piecing together timelines in youtube videos.

Waluigi - 10%

Want - 80%

Waluigi would absolutely make a fantastic addition to Smash Bros. I've always loved the idea of him representing Strikers and Tennis and the other spinoffs, which he kind of does in his assist trophy moveset. Now just his crotchchop taunt from Strikers, plz. I imagine he'd have Game and Watch's moveset non-sequitur concept alongside Ridley's lanky vulnerability. Would be a very fun pick.

My concern is two things, really.

• What is he promoting?
• What is his stage/music?

The stage and music and cameos have been almost as big a selling point for the DLC passes as the character themselves. Unless we put a golf course or something themed that way in Smash... I dunno. Same with his music. I think you have to work really hard and get pretty creative to make it interesting on account of just how MUCH Mario content is already in Super Smash Bros. If he had something for his own, like a game or staring role, I think his chances would be much better.


SPEAKING OF WHICH, I honestly think we're far past the point of Camelot (and EDP2, see my post here) working on Mario Golf. Feel free to come back and laugh at me if I'm wrong.

It's been over two years since the Takahashi siblings left development on Aces. This is a company with all the engine and assets (from Aces, of course) and experience and manpower help they would need to bang out a golf game in 9 months. But they haven't. So what are they doing?

Well, during that time, due to Smash Ultimate, talk about and requests for Golden Sun skyrocketed. I go into the timeline in the video. And they've always said they'd come back to Golden Sun if there is fan demand.

TL;DR - Camelot is extremely likely to be actively working on a Golden Sun game for the Switch.

That said, I think Isaac, Felix or some other new Venus Adept has not a good, not a great, but THE BEST chance to be DLC in Fighter's Pass 2. Think about it. Can any other character claim to:

• Satisfy the fans as THE most requested fan character left from the Smash ballot who is not yet playable in the game.
• Revive a dormant Nintendo franchise, especially one in a genre with only Pokemon in it.
• Shill for an upcoming game
• Not have to pay a third-party any licensing fees

If you're trying to make money, ALL of these are the most important factors.

Hey, I'm biased. I want what I want. But still, the proof is in the pudding.

Isaac - 75%

Want - 100%

Nomination: Octopath Travelers x5

 

[Ninjaed]

Then give me one reason why Isaac, for example, wouldn't make money ? Especially if he is used to promote a new Golden Sun game. It's an old character with a lot of support, that has been requested for a long time and is quite known among the fans already. If Byleth, who was considered impossible because too recent, could get in and sell, there is ZERO reasons Isaac couldn't.
Not that it WILL happen, but it CAN.

Making money or making more money, which would they pick do you figure? Xenosaga could've gotten a new game but the market analysis apparently nipped it in the bud. That's how these things work.
Also Isaac may be requested and have a fanbase, but so do other characters: Dante, Ryu Hayabusa, Lloyd, etc... Some characters even got in despite little demand. That argument means very little.
Show me proof that a new Golden Sun game is coming or evidence that Nintendo has been seriously considering the option recently and I'll gladly reconsider, since Nintendo would then have genuine reasons to advertise it. Until then, I care nothing for "what ifs". They won't affect my reasoning, and ofc nor my score.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Making money or making more money, which would they pick do you figure?

Apparently I should remind you once again that their deal with Microsoft didn't involve much bigger franchises of theirs.

 

[Kalaam]

I've been using that proof over and over again but you do not listen.
It's fine if you're not super optimistic, but you've done nothing but antagonize the Isaac support thread because they don't aggree with you and present arguments going against yours.
Golden Sun got a trademark, new, and that kind of stuff is only done when you are working on a game.
Sure, the project could never come to fruition and get cancelled before official announcement. But this is still proof of Nintendo considering using the franchise in the near future.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Oh boy, it's gonna be one of THOSE days, isn't it? It doesn't help that I know people are gonna be upset at me.

Isaac and Waluigi
Chance for both: 0%
Yes, I still think Assist Trophies deconfirm even in this "new era" of DLC. For one, they actually went through the effort of programming and modeling these characters to appear via item summoning. This would imply they felt that the character would be better off as an extra in battle. Secondly, although this is prone to change, all previous promotions happened in the subsequant game. As of this writing, no Assist Trophy has been promoted in the same game they appeared as an Assist Trophy in. Though again, this IS prone to change. Also, I have to ask, have the ATs ever been updated? I know that Spirits have had their names updated with the addition of new Spirits, but has anything similar happened with ATs? One more thing, the Waluigi controversy was only relevant in America. As far as Japan's concerned, he doesn't even exist. I'm just mentioning this now because one of the characters we're rating soon DID get backlash from Japan for their deconfirm. It's called foreshadowing.

Abstain on Isaac Want. I've never played Golden Sun.

Waluigi Want: 0%
I have been a gamer for the better part of my life, and I STILL don't understand why Waluigi is so popular. He was literally created to fill in a spot on the Mario Tennis. THAT'S IT. Say what you will about Daisy's addition, at least she had previously appeared in Super Mario Land. Waluigi is, and always will be, a filler character, no matter how much the meme community tries to will a solo game into existance.

Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5

 

[Guynamednelson]

This would imply they felt that the character would be better off as an extra in battle

Not necessarily. The only reasons Krystal isn't among our fighters is because Wolf was easier to make late in Brawl's development and she would conflict with what 4's newcomers focused on, for example.

Also, I have to ask, have the ATs ever been updated? I know that Spirits have had their names updated with the addition of new Spirits, but has anything similar happened with ATs?

The name of Akira's martial art in the training menu was changed from "Bajiquan" to "Hakkyoku-ken" in a patch. ATs that conflict with KoF Stadium's gimmick are disabled on that stage.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Not necessarily. The only reasons Krystal isn't among our fighters is because Wolf was easier to make late in Brawl's development and she would conflict with what 4's newcomers focused on, for example.

The name of Akira's martial art in the training menu was changed from "Bajiquan" to "Hakkyoku-ken" in a patch. ATs that conflict with KoF Stadium's gimmick are disabled on that stage.

Oh, well that's good to know.

 

[Deleted member]

Waluigi

Chance: 0.1%

I guess it's certainly possible that budgetary constraints could affect Vol 2, so using a preexisting model and making a fighter out of it wouldn't be as costly as making an entirely new model fresh out of the gate. That said however, that's the only thing ATs have that would make them look more favorable by Nintendo than Spirits. Much like how I don't see any spirits turning into Fighters until it actually does happen, it's more of the same for ATs.

Now onto Waluigi. He'd most likely be the "cheapest" character for Vol 2 with what I said earlier and would probably sell like hotcakes because of the giant mix of ironic and legit fan demand there is out there for him. If Nintendo are going to be as cheap with Vol 2 as they are with their joycons, I guess it wouldn't really be as unexpected as I imagine it would. Then again, I still don't really see that being the case still with Vol 1 bringing in characters from games that weren't in Smash before. We may not know about Vol 2 right now, but I don't really expect it to be any different from Vol 1 unless you mean to tell me Waluigi would be in Smash as the Mario Kart Tour rep or something even though Waluigi is still a character who's already in Smash in some fashion and wasn't initially playable in MKT during release. Overall, I wouldn't put Waluigi's chances any higher than 1%.

Want: 7%

Honestly, I'm not interested with Waluigi becoming playable. Despite the amount of fan demand there is for him, he's pretty much the household staple for all ATs like Lyn and Dr. Wright, so I find him to be in the perfect role for Smash. I'm not really interested in characters who are already in the game either by spirits or ATs becoming playable now, so Waluigi becoming a fighter in Vol 2 is way less appealing to me than adding a character who has never appeared in Smash before like all the characters from Vol 1.
-------------
Binding of Isaac

Chance: 0.1%

It's the same thing I said earlier in Waluigi's chance part except Isaac has the unfortunate case of being an inactive IP from Nintendo. I don't really see any Golden Sun remakes happening to revitalize the series in the horizon, so he's a pretty much dead in the water for his chances like every other AT.

Want: 10%

I've never played Goldun Sun nor do I think I'll ever get around to playing them anytime soon. I don't really care about him either, but I would probably prefer him over Waluigi cause at least he seems to have some decent abilities like those giant hand things.
-------------
Predictions:
It's not Hat Goomba Gamexplain - 28.27%
Dixie - 44.5%
-------------
Noms:
Devolver Digital Rep x5

 

[Louie G.]

WALUIGI

Chance: 7.5%
Let's talk. I really don't want to have to give this character any more than a zero... not because I don't like Waluigi, but because by all means he should be completely out of the picture. But Waluigi is a very special case, the backlash from his disconfirmation is unlike any that I've seen prior, arguably trumping even Ridley in terms of sheer outcry from a movement that seemingly formed overnight. As we all know, Waluigi is an Assist Trophy right now, so we can assume that means he wouldn't be playable... right?

Well I might be a bit of an extremist regarding this kind of thing, but hear me out. DLC has been going longer than we have before and we know that nobody is thinking about a "next time" at the moment. Lots of people say "Waluigi is a lock for next Smash", which I would generally agree with, but I don't think that's on the forefront of anyone's mind right now. What I'm getting at is I think that the decisions made for the base game are largely separate from what can happen moving forward.

One thing that always stands out to me is Chrom still appearing in Robin's Final Smash. People try and make excuses about this and say it doesn't matter, but you have to consider - if Robin's FS was shown off prior to Chrom's reveal with Chrom in it, everyone would assume he was straight up disconfirmed. If this mattered that much to Sakurai and Co, Chrom probably would have been excluded from the game since it was clearly too much effort and not enough time to create a brand new FS and victory poses for Robin. But making fans of the character happy took precedent over what technically "makes sense". While we don't get to see this happen too often, it tells me that a character's pre-established role is something that feasibly could be fallen back on in the right circumstance.

So how does this work for an Assist Trophy? Pretty easy, you just prevent them from appearing while they're in a match. Alucard doesn't show up in Wii Fit Studio for example, because of the mirrors. Clearly this kind of programming / toggling wouldn't be that complicated. So now that we've addressed that this is possible, what exactly does this mean for Waluigi?

If an Assist Trophy gets promoted to a playable character, it will be Waluigi. There is no contest. He's far and away the most popular of them all, and Nintendo is well aware that if they promoted anyone else a new wave of Waluigi backlash would follow. Nintendo themselves has addressed Waluigi's popularity on several occasions, and that's the big thing worth acknowledging for me. Bottom line, since Nintendo is giving Sakurai the characters to develop, Waluigi seems like someone who would come up in conversation once or twice. Would Sakurai veto Waluigi saying he's already an AT? Maybe, but the cases I brought up tell me that may not be that much of a problem.

So I have quite a bit to say about this, do I think Waluigi is going to be in the game? Not really. He doesn't really fit the current direction of DLC, it's hard to imagine Waluigi filling a complete fighter's pass. Sure, Waluigi Pinball is an easy stage pick, but adding new music and spirits... you could, it's Mario there's more than enough to work with. But the focus definitely seems to be on "new game worlds" and how to make Smash a bigger crossover than it already is. Bringing in another main series Mario character... that doesn't quite do the trick.

I just wanted to have some fun assessing this because while I don't think Waluigi will be playable in Smash Ultimate, I do think people are a bit too confident in their criteria of who's out of the picture. We're at the point where it's at least possible for them to change their minds a couple times.

Want: 55%
I like Waluigi, I think he'd be super fun in Smash and I'd probably play him a lot. I've always had an affinity for the character and although the stale memes have sort of warped my perspective on him, deep down I still can't help but root for the guy. Out of everyone who could be DLC though... Waluigi isn't someone I particularly want to happen right now. I would be happy with it in the long run, but eh... I'd rather them try something different. No doubt the reaction would be legendary to witness though, so that alone makes me open to the idea.

ISAAC

Chance: 0.1%
Now here is a character who I can say with relative confidence is not on the table right now. People have gotten this idea about Golden Sun remakes somehow, but from what I've heard this doesn't go beyond a few fake leaks and speculation... but mostly just being hopeful. I think it's possible we could see the series revitalized at some point in the future, but with nothing to show at the moment I'll be judging this on the current situation and not what-ifs. If Golden Sun sees a resurgence then we can reassess Isaac's chances.

Isaac is certainly one of the more popular ATs to have been shot down this game, but I still stand by what I said before. If an Assist Trophy gets promoted to a playable character, it will be Waluigi. Sure, they could both get promoted in the next game or something, but as of now I don't see one promotion, let alone two, and Waluigi would get precedent over any of them. Sorry to say, but Isaac is going to have to wait his turn.

...and I'm all for being open-minded about this, but multiple people giving Isaac over 70%??? What the hell???

Want: 45%
Isaac is fine. He's not a character who I've ever been completely enamored by, but it would be cool to see Golden Sun see its grand return and I'm sure he would be fun. Personally it would leave a bad taste in my mouth for Isaac to get in over a Rhythm Heaven character, considering the latter is a bigger series and almost received a character in Smash 4. Like, it'd be fine but I would be a little bit petty about it. Separate from that Isaac is ok but again I would rather just wait until next game instead of seeing him promoted as DLC.

PREDICTIONS:
Dixie Kong - 8.75%
Bandana Dee - 12.75%

NOMINATIONS - TRAVIS TOUCHDOWN x 15

 

[NessAtc.]

Isaac (Golden Sun)

Chances: 50%
Want: 100%

There's really no other character I've wanted in Smash. His skillset is extremely diverse, he'd bring even more rocking music, and not least of all he's a pretty solid fan pick. This is disregarding the vast amounts of circumstantial evidence leading to a new Golden Sun entry as well. Assist Trophies are very much fair game in DLC, and I have no idea where this "it'd be a waste of money" comes from. You're not removing the assist trophy, and even if you were, you're repurposing the assets for the playable version, so it's not a waste of money anyway. There's being a purist, but then there's being unreasonable.

Waluigi
Chances: 0%
Want: 30%

Now, this may seem like bias shining through, but here's the situation; Waluigi is one of those characters that you can more or less just throw in at any time. And yet he's remained an assist trophy for Brawl, Smash 4, and Ultimate. Not only has Nintendo been aware of the Waluigi demand, they've been aware since the beginning. It's abundantly clear that Waluigi's demand is not what is keeping him out, but rather his lack of relevance to his own series. He is very much a space-filler character in spinoff games and not much else. Even Piranha Plant is more relevant to the Mario series than Waluigi is, making an appearance in mainline Mario games from the beginning. Meanwhile, Waluigi is just delegated to spinoff hell. THIS is the reason Waluigi repeatedly gets passed up; Sakurai either doesn't care enough about Waluigi to really do much more with him, Waluigi lacks anything he alone could do that nobody more relevant couldn't, i.e Toad, or both.

Also, talking about "he'd be the first Assist Trophy promoted" when we've already had three, and none of them were him... even if you add "first promotion in DLC" is that really so special of a title at this point? There's not any sort of grandiose entry lined up for Waluigi even if he did get in, at least not any more than other characters.

 

[Louie G.]

https://www3.wipo.int/branddb/en/showData.jsp?ID=IDTM.M0020181436968

A Golden Sun trademark was also in examined state in Indonesia as of August 2019, So there's that

Trademarks are cool to keep track of and all that, but unless it's a brand new title this kind of thing is always uncertain. More often than not it doesn't add up to very much, all it means is that Nintendo still owns Golden Sun. Maybe we'll see a rerelease in some fashion if we get some sort of GBA Switch online function or whatever.

 

[NessAtc.]

Trademarks are cool to keep track of and all that, but unless it's a brand new title this kind of thing is always uncertain. More often than not it doesn't add up to very much, all it means is that Nintendo still owns Golden Sun. Maybe we'll see a rerelease in some fashion if we get some sort of GBA Switch online function or whatever.

Except there's never been a case where a trademark was simply for a digital re-release. Even for when the original two games were added to Wii U VC, they didn't make a new trademark. They had two already running anyway, so there wasn't any point. When the newest trademarks were put out, all of the GS trademarks were also still active.

A trademark is only for brand protection, NOT IP protection. It's designed to have zero confusion with consumers as to what product is legitimate and what product isn't. Unlawful use of a trademark is a pretty big offence, after all.

 

[Kalaam]

I like how getting a full on new trademark issued and validated, confirmed not being a renewal by several circumstancial evidence is "baseless rumors"

 

[Pinguino21v]

AT promotion is too low to even be considered with only 6 precious slots remaining.

Prove it.


Waluigi
Chance: 20%
He doesn't bring a new franchise among the fighters, and he hasn't a strong gimmick. However, he is a big request.
Want: 80%
I like the character, and he would be wacky.

Isaac
Chance: 50%
He brings a new franchise among the fighters, and he has a strong gimmick. Moreover, he is the last long-term request aside Geno, had a lot going for him before the launch, outcry when revelead, and several hints leading to a new Golden Sun, therefore a contender for advertisement. If there is an upgrade, I strongly believe it will be him.
Want: 100%
He is my first and only real want. Anything else is optional.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Did an influx of people from the Isaac thread come in today? I was definitely not expecting him to get so many chance scores ranging around 50% and above.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Did an influx of people from the Isaac thread come in today? I was definitely not expecting him to get so many chance scores ranging around 50% and above.

Wouldn't be the first time. Remember Geno's day?

 

[Guynamednelson]

Did an influx of people from the Isaac thread come in today? I was definitely not expecting him to get so many chance scores ranging around 50% and above.

You can blame me for that. Although it would've been inevitable for regulars from a character's thread to show up when they're being rated.

 

[Louie G.]

Except there's never been a case where a trademark was simply for a digital re-release. Even for when the original two games were added to Wii U VC, they didn't make a new trademark. They had two already running anyway, so there wasn't any point. When the newest trademarks were put out, all of the GS trademarks were also still active.

A trademark is only for brand protection, NOT IP protection. It's designed to have zero confusion with consumers as to what product is legitimate and what product isn't. Unlawful use of a trademark is a pretty big offence, after all.

https://wccftech.com/capcom-trademarks-dino-crisis-power-stone-darkstalkers/

Capcom recently filed new trademarks for a long list of classic franchises, including Dino Crisis, Darkstalkers, Power Stone, Bionic Commando, Mega Man Legends, Cyberbots, Puzzle Fighter, Breath of Fire, Ghosts 'n Goblins, Rival Schools, Strider, Samurai Sword, Powered Gear, Progear, Last Duel, Captain Commando, Vulgus, Black Tiger, and more. They’re really covering the gamut!

Capcom filed new trademarks for all of these series. I highly highly doubt that they have plans for every single one of them. It's a common practice to refresh these trademarks. Remember the Mach Rider trademark way back during the Grinch leak? What a coincidence that was, I still can't get over how well that kind of stuff lined up. Clearly though, it didn't mean much.

And even then... if we do get a new Golden Sun, it's not even guaranteed that Isaac would even be the main protagonist, let alone be in Smash. And if we got a remake, the latter point still applies.

I'm sorry if I sound so dismissive and negative, I don't like hounding on people for the characters they like but 50% and higher for an AT is pretty ridiculous.

 

[Jomosensual]

Wouldn't be the first time. Remember Geno's day?

Or Reimu's day last year when there were multiple 100s

 

[Megadoomer]

Did an influx of people from the Isaac thread come in today? I was definitely not expecting him to get so many chance scores ranging around 50% and above.

Usually, it seems that if a character's being rated, someone will post in their support thread about it.

At least it counters out the 0% scores from people who have never played the games and have no interest in them, but choose to rate the character's chances anyway. (there are multiple people who did that just for Isaac on this page alone, and he's almost certainly not the only character that this happens to)

 

[Kalaam]

Sounds normal for people from the support thread to come rate the chances of the character, they are the ones most aware of the situation of the character that could improve his chances.

 

[Sari]

Before I do my ratings, I'm gonna post my thoughts on assist trophies/spirits since we'll be talking about them for the next few days or so:

Since the first season pass characters had already been decided on before Ultimate was finished, I had almost no faith in one of them being an AT/spirit character. I just couldn't see Sakurai deciding that someone like Waluigi would be playable at the same time they were working out their assist trophy. That said however, we're now in our first ever second season of Smash DLC so in a weird way it's like speculating on an entirely new game. Sakurai has said multiple times over the past few months or so that he is not thinking about any future Smash game at the moment. Because of this I really think he's gonna go all in with requested characters and not care about any supposed "rules." Not having an AT show up in battle under certain conditions also takes like a second to do as seen with Knuckles not appearing on the Green Hill stage for example.

Also I'm just gonna say right now who I think the three likeliest AT/spirit promotions are:

• Waluigi
• Geno
• Rex

I'll talk more about Rex during his upcoming RTC day but in a nutshell I think he's in the same position as Chrom was after SSB4.

-----

Waluigi

Chance: 40%
As far as assist trophy promotions go, Waluigi is without a doubt the lead candidate. He is very highly requested to the point where even Nintendo is aware of how much fans want him.

Want: 100%
Waluigi has always been one of my favorite Mario characters. He's hilarious, wacky, and would also be a great way to represent some of the Mario spin-offs if needed. Just give the poor guy his chance already!

-----

Isaac

Chance: 20%
Another AT candidate with a decent chance of being promoted (probably the 2nd most likely AT promotion imo). Golden Sun has a ton of content to choose from and Isaac has always been a big request, so I can see him being promoted after Waluigi.

Want: Abstain
I never really got that far into Golden Sun so I'll just abstain on his want rating.

-----

Bandana Dee chance prediction: 22.86%
Dixie chance prediction: 25.84%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x5

 

[I.D.]

Waluigi

Chance: 0%. Leaving "promotions" aside (which I don't believe are happening) I just get the feeling Sakurai isn't interested at all in this guy. Remember that "just because you try hard doesn't mean you'll make it" thing? I can honestly imagine Sakurai vetoing him or at least heavily resisting his inclusion.

Want: 10%. He is kinda funny. Otherwise I don't care.

Isaac

Chance: 0%. A dead, failed, obscure franchise with no legacy, influence or impact to speak of getting a DLC spot in Smash? Get outta here. And promotions still aren't happening.

Want: 0%. I can think of hundreds of RPG characters that I would prefer before anyone from Golden Sun. One of the few games where I barely remember anything that happened despite finishing it.

 

[Kalaam]

How fun, still people who knows nothing and just come and hate. And then they talk about "objectivity"

 

[chocolatejr9]

How fun, still people who knows nothing and just come and hate. And then they talk about "objectivity"

Hey, I abstained on Isaac's Want because I never played Golden Sun. Though I did give a 0% Chance, so that may not count...

 

[clearandsweet]

Did an influx of people from the Isaac thread come in today? I was definitely not expecting him to get so many chance scores ranging around 50% and above.

It's almost like he's one of the most consistently requested and realistically feasible characters to make playable in Smash Bros.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

It's almost like he's one of the most consistently requested and realistically feasible characters to make playable in Smash Bros.

So is Waluigi yet he's given several 0's when he's in an arguably better position than Isaac.
I have a lot of sympathy for the Golden Sun fans, but even if I was a fan I'd still give him 20% at most.

 

[Pinguino21v]

At least it counters out the 0% scores from people who have never played the games and have no interest in them, but choose to rate the character's chances anyway. (there are multiple people who did that just for Isaac on this page alone, and he's almost certainly not the only character that this happens to)

Amen.

So is Waluigi yet he's given several 0's when he's in an arguably better position than Isaac.

You can't say that objectively. Compared to Waluigi, Isaac has (1) a new serie represented in the fighter pool, (2) a strong unique moveset/gimmick potential with earth magic and summoning (djinns), (3) more potential for the DLC pack containing a stage, musics and spirits and (4), depending on what is going on the backstage, a potential advertisment for a game.
Don't get me wrong, I prefectly understand someone would think that upgrade won't happen, I prefectly understand someone giving Isaac a low chance, but Waluigi is not in a better position than Isaac.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Well today turned out to be much more reasonable than I expected. Instead of a war against AT disconfirmation it's turning out to be more of a mild nagging.

Suits me well as I've gotten 3 hours of sleep in a 40-hour period.

Golden Sun was also given a new item in Ultimate as well, which does show that Nintendo still recognizes the franchise.

There's no new Golden Sun item. Sadly it turned out to be a generic Smash original.

Why would they take the time to make a 3D model, code in all they need to make an AT only to later make them playable?

Why would they not? If five years ago you didn't want to eat an apple it doesn't mean you can't want to today.

They can be promoted to playable (e.g. Isabelle) but only from one game to another

So you already know that people's opinions on characters change with time. That should answer all your questions.

What would they gain from doing so?

Money.

The character is already there, people are already talking about them. Mission complete. Of course, they'd be talked about more if they were playable

Well you contradicted yourself super quick, that was easy.

This would imply they felt that the character would be better off as an extra in battle.

Or they just couldn't make the character playable at the time given the resources they had available. We have had scrapped characters later become fighters.

Say what you will about Daisy's addition, at least she had previously appeared in Super Mario Land.

So, Waluigi was just created as a pair for Wario and that is bad, but Daisy was created as a stand-in for Peach and that is okay?

Even Piranha Plant is more relevant to the Mario series than Waluigi is, making an appearance in mainline Mario games from the beginning.

I do really hope that nobody actually believes this is true. Just because something's in a game doesn't mean it's important.

Our next fighter will be the Sun, one of the characters with the most videogame appearances across several franchises.

 

[Cadillac]

Hey, I abstained on Isaac's Want because I never played Golden Sun. Though I did give a 0% Chance, so that may not count...

At least you didn't call GS a failure.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Well today turned out to be much more reasonable than I expected. Instead of a war against AT disconfirmation it's turning out to be more of a mild nagging.

Suits me well as I've gotten 3 hours of sleep in a 40-hour period.


There's no new Golden Sun item. Sadly it turned out to be a generic Smash original.

Why would they not? If five years ago you didn't want to eat an apple it doesn't mean you can't want to today.

So you already know that people's opinions on characters change with time. That should answer all your questions.

Money.

Well you contradicted yourself super quick, that was easy.

Or they just couldn't make the character playable at the time given the resources they had available. We have had scrapped characters later become fighters.

So, Waluigi was just created as a pair for Wario and that is bad, but Daisy was created as a stand-in for Peach and that is okay?

I do really hope that nobody actually believes this is true. Just because something's in a game doesn't mean it's important.

Our next fighter will be the Sun, one of the characters with the most videogame appearances across several franchises.

I meant at least Daisy appeared in a proper Mario game and wasn't exclusive to spinoffs (though I will admit, she may as well be spinoff exclusive). Sorry if I wasn't clear on that.

 

[clearandsweet]

I meant at least Daisy appeared in a proper Mario game and wasn't exclusive to spinoffs (though I will admit, she may as well be spinoff exclusive). Sorry if I wasn't clear on that.

Imagine Sakurai being like well we could throw in another Mario character... Daisy and Waluigi have both been in all these sports games, pretty much exactly the same representation... of course Daisy could be a clone of Peach, so that's basically all the development time saved so, that's nice. OH WAIT.

OH MAN THIS CLINCHES IT.

SHE WAS IN THAT ONE GAMEBOY GAME FOR A FEW FRAMES. WE CAN PUT HER IN NOW BOYS. POP OPEN THE BUBBLY.

 

[Cadillac]

Imagine Sakurai being like well we could throw in another Mario character... Daisy and Waluigi have both been in all these sports games, pretty much exactly the same representation... of course Daisy could be a clone of Peach, so that's basically all the development time saved so, that's nice. OH WAIT.

View attachment 264386

OH MAN THIS CLINCHES IT.

SHE WAS IN THAT ONE GAMEBOY GAME FOR A FEW FRAMES. WE CAN PUT HER IN NOW BOYS. POP OPEN THE BUBBLY.

I'm really curious how did she get in as a fighter when she has nothing different with Peach, save for basic motions and voices.
Even Richter has some difference. I've seen someone saying she's a glorified skin.