Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Organization XIII]

It's very strange that people keep using being dead as a reason he won't happen. I mean Banjo and K Rool showed popularity can trump that and that happening in the most recent title and his popularity rivaling theirs you'd think people would keep that a little more in mind. Hell, those two have been dead for even longer than he is now. I'm not saying he'll happen but like being dead clearly isn't the death knell it was in games past.

 

[Louie G.]

I mean, I'm sure for most people it's more of a matter of Isaac being an Assist Trophy than anything else. I consider Waluigi a slight exception only on the basis of how frequently Nintendo has acknowledged it, and Nintendo being the ones suggesting the DLC.

Even then, I doubt Waluigi will be playable and I doubt any other AT that much more. Isaac, Skull Kid, Bomberman, they're popular enough and I would be pretty happy if some of these characters could make that jump, but for me and I assume many others it's much more of a "disconfirmed until proven otherwise" situation.

Unlike spirits, ATs are shown much more prominently and required significantly more development time to incorporate these characters into the game. It would probably take a huge movement to convince them to reconsider. Isaac's fanbase is prominent, but has definitely died down at large since his confirmation as an AT, while Waluigi's support shot up after the news. If a new Golden Sun shows itself and if Isaac is the main protagonist or it's a remake, we could reassess this and Nintendo may have more incentive to give this character a boost. For now, I'd say a lot of people have actually been quite generous considering the circumstances.

Isaac went from being completely erased in Smash 4 to both an Assist Trophy and a Mii Costume in Ultimate. It's a jump that was no doubt prompted by his dedicated fanbase. But in my eyes, that tells me it was the most they were willing to do for him at the moment. If Isaac support stays strong for years to come, he'll be a frontrunner as a fan favorite pick in the next game. For Ultimate I think his journey is over.

But I mean, keep fighting! That's what got us Ridley and K. Rool and Banjo. I have no doubt that Isaac can have a future in the series. I just don't see how people are being particularly unfair toward him when I imagine by most people's standards he's been out of the running for some time now.

 

[Guynamednelson]

If a new Golden Sun shows itself and if Isaac is the main protagonist or it's a remake, we could reassess this and Nintendo may have more incentive to give this character a boost. For now, I'd say a lot of people have actually been quite generous considering the circumstances.

Why not let you choose between Isaac/Felix/Matthew/GS4 Protagonist?

ATs are shown much more prominently and required significantly more development time to incorporate these characters into the game

In the case of Waluigi, ATs that were in Smash 4 were copypasted into Ultimate. Saying Waluigi getting promoted as DLC would waste hard work is like saying they wasted hard work by promoting Isabelle and Dark Samus. Hell, even though Isaac had to be remade, he still feels very primitive compared to newcomer ATs.

 

[Louie G.]

In the case of Waluigi, ATs that were in Smash 4 were copypasted into Ultimate. Saying Waluigi getting promoted as DLC would waste hard work is like saying they wasted hard work by promoting Isabelle and Dark Samus.

You put words in my mouth, I didn't say it would be a waste. You can go back and read my assessment of Waluigi's chances where I talk about why this wouldn't be a big deal.

I was comparing Assist Trophies to spirits. It's much easier to imagine the promotion of a spirit to a playable character within the same game than an AT to a playable character, as ATs serve a far more prominent role in the gameplay and are treated as a much bigger deal. A character's presence is already celebrated as an AT, adding them as DLC doesn't serve to expand the world of Smash very much when their role is very clear.

 

[Guynamednelson]

ATs serve a far more prominent role in the gameplay and are treated as a much bigger deal.

Not a big enough deal to ask "Hmm, there are two Moons, which one should we disable?" and have the answer be the one that isn't a background prop.

 

[Louie G.]

Not a big enough deal to ask "Hmm, there are two Moons, which one should we disable?" and have the answer be the one that isn't a background prop.

You're missing my point and clearly didn't go back and read my post. I hope you have a good day anyway!

 

[Xenigma]

I haven't participated in this thread in a very long time, but considering the two characters up for voting right now, I feel obligated to say a few words.

Waluigi
Chance - 50%
I'll start with a simple premise: while FP1 was chosen mid-development of the base game, FP2 was surely chosen well after the fact, which means they can and probably have re-evaluated certain characters that were relegated to Assist Trophies, Spirits, Mii Costumes, and so on. For example, if we take Sakurai at his word that Rex was in consideration for FP1 before ultimately being relegated to the Mii Costume, it's entirely possible he was back in consideration for FP2. After all, they were implementing Nintendo's entire history into base Ultimate, including every character that had ever been playable before, so certain concessions had to be made for who gets to be playable, an Assist Trophy, or whatever else, and with FP2 they now have the opportunity to revisit those decisions and take the opportunity to do even more than they did before. This doesn't guarantee we will see an AT/Spirit/etc promoted to playable, of course, but I think we'd be fools to assume they're out of the picture.

To that end, there is one character who I think is most notorious for missing the roster in Ultimate, and it ain't Geno, but Waluigi. Aside from being very popular, he's the one character I know press interviews have specifically asked about when he was announced as an AT instead of playable, which says a lot all by itself. I do think there's a certain amount of bias against him, nor do I think he necessarily adds much in terms of music/stage/spirit, but it's easy to see him be presented as the Mario Sports character and come with matching extra content. Further, Sakurai's been upfront that Nintendo chooses the characters, not him, and Nintendo surely knows just how popular Waluigi is. As uncertain as I feel about FP2 (I'll be very surprised if the community guesses are even close to the final list), I think Waluigi's chances are far too significant to be ignored.

Want - 75%
I don't particularly want to play as him, but as a such a fan-favorite character and one of the "Camelot Bros", I know I'd be happy to see him make it in.

Isaac
Chance - 25%
As before, I don't think being an AT or anything else should be treated as a deconfirmation for FP2. Now, I don't particularly want to litigate here whether a Golden Sun revival is on the way (as credible a theory as I believe that is), but even without that in the picture, I believe Isaac is one of the few characters currently an AT/Spirit/etc that had a credible chance of being on the FP2 shortlist. Few Nintendo characters enjoy the same level of fan speculation that Isaac has, and his lifetime in Ultimate speculation has been particularly memorable, including fake leaks, fan art, myriad videos, the Golden Sunday campaign, and of course the unusually strong, negative response to his AT reveal. That's the sort of attention that Nintendo can and surely did notice, and thus I think the chances of Nintendo proposing him for DLC are unusually strong. Of course, there's just as much (if not more) possibility that Nintendo has no interest in reviving Golden Sun, never mind devoting precious Smash development resources towards the long dormant franchise, but with so little information about what direction FP2's character choices will go, I think a strong first party choice like Isaac deserves the benefit of the doubt, especially over the myriad of third party choices that dominate speculation talk these days.

Want - 100%
Even if you don't remember me from the speculation days of old, I think the profile picture speaks for itself. By far my favorite potential character for Smash.

Nomination - New Zelda Character x5
With so little to go off of for FP2, I'm most interested in seeing if Zelda will ever get a new Smash character. Maybe it's just the lack of an obvious frontrunner, but it's crazy to me that we have yet to see a new Zelda character since Toon Link in Brawl.

 

[Organization XIII]

You put words in my mouth, I didn't say it would be a waste. You can go back and read my assessment of Waluigi's chances where I talk about why this wouldn't be a big deal.

I was comparing Assist Trophies to spirits. It's much easier to imagine the promotion of a spirit to a playable character within the same game than an AT to a playable character, as ATs serve a far more prominent role in the gameplay and are treated as a much bigger deal. A character's presence is already celebrated as an AT, adding them as DLC doesn't serve to expand the world of Smash very much when their role is very clear.

Actually considering ATs are characters they thought were worth investing more time into in the first place I think it's far more likely we would see a promotion of an AT than just regular spirits. Right now the characters we are getting weren't planned and so this is the exact time to rethink roles and so the characters mostly likely to be reconsidered are going to be the ones they felt deserved more time. With the obvious exception of 3rd parties but there a lot of good reasons some of them don't have roles as prominent as ATs.

 

[clearandsweet]

After seeing literally the entire cast of P5, FE:3H, KOF as well as Tootie and Gruntilda show up in DLC as non-intractable but fully modeled stage assets, I don't think they're afraid to make additional models for almost no tangible benefit (you can't even see Tootie).

In fact, seems like they have character artists/animators/riggers to spare aplenty, and are even looking for work to give them. You don't have to have Bottles to put Banjo in Smash, ffs.

It'd be very easy to put a Felix or Mathew model over the current AT bones and wow no work is lost. Crazy how easy that problem was to solve.

Lemme know if you create any other really trivial mountains from molehills; I'm full of genius ideas.

 

[Guynamednelson]

It'd be very easy to put a Felix or Mathew model over the current AT bones and wow no work is lost. Crazy how easy that problem was to solve.

I think it'd be better for Felix to be an alt/echo while Garet takes over as the AT, as all the moves featured can be learned by him.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Unlike spirits, ATs are shown much more prominently

Uhh not really? I mean, Spirits are the great new addition of Ultimate, they have an entire separate mode, the story revolves around the concept, and they got tons of screentime during the Nov 1 Direct, not to mention they get added for every DLC character and randomly every couple of weeks.

 

[Dorayaki]

It's very strange that people keep using being dead as a reason he won't happen. I mean Banjo and K Rool showed popularity can trump that.

Its been noted that absence from a running franchise and discontinuation of a series are two different topics that are not comparable. Especially in Smash bros the characters don't even have same qualification to begin with.

KRool's debate of not making appearances in any regular game within Switch era is still legit now. Waluigi, despite he isn't totally unheard, could also be considered dead in platforms titles.

I think what matters is whether GS was meant to be a series or an independent title, We still have independent franchises like Ice Climbers, so of course it doesn't effect GS' chance for Smash entry at all.

If anything, we'd rather have to worry whether Nintendo would incline to do more retro reps or prefer more advertising choices. If it's the latter we'd have to get a new GS title first.

Actually considering ATs are characters they thought were worth investing more time into in the first place I think it's far more likely we would see a promotion of an AT than just regular spirits. Right now the characters we are getting weren't planned and so this is the exact time to rethink roles and so the characters mostly likely to be reconsidered are going to be the ones they felt deserved more time. With the obvious exception of 3rd parties but there a lot of good reasons some of them don't have roles as prominent as ATs.

Problem is this is still at the risk of system issues when the assists are still present in the game. I understand Issac was one of the biggest letdown, but the argument should be that Nintendo should had really put them in the base game than regretting their decision. After all Smash 6 could also be a place for redemption (like how Isabelle got promoted in Smash 5) while we haven't really heard DLCs are gonna be used for redemption . Even worse, given many wanted characters failed this round, I doubt that only six remaining slots is able to satisfy all their fans. Even after Issac failed in Smash 4 he still failed to be in either Smash 4 DLC or Smash 5.

"Redemption" is actually like a black hole, and we'd never know if Nintendo really feel sorry about the failed characters.

Regarding to the topic today, only talkibg about Waluigi and Issac' s chance in further future, I think Waluigi to Isaac is 80% to 20 % considering Nintendo's preference for Mario franchise unless GS has a new release.

 

[Organization XIII]

Problem is this is still at the risk of system issues when the assists are still present in the game. I understand Issac was one of the biggest letdown, but the argument should be that Nintendo should had really put them in the base game than regretting their decision. After all Smash 6 could also be a place for redemption as Nintendo never promised that DLC are for that kind of use. Even worse, given many wanted characters failed this round, I doubt that only six remaining slots is able to satisfy all their fans.

Regarding to the topic today, only talkibg about Waluigi and Issac' s chance in further future, I think Waluigi to Isaac is 80% to 20 % considering Nintendo's preference for Mario franchise unless GS has a new release.

The system isn't really an issue at all. They literally already have a system in the game for taking ATs out of circulation based on certain criteria. Also there's no real difference between the series being dormant and the character being dormant. Either way it shows a lack of care of being used and that fan demand can over come that factor and revitalize an interest in using it. And the argument had nothing to do with regretting a decision it's more if they are going to do promotions it is going to be the characters they felt were worth giving preferential treatment to in the first place. Remember it's only the fans who see ATs as a bad thing.

 

[Dorayaki]

The system isn't really an issue at all. They literally already have a system in the game for taking ATs out of circulation based on certain criteria. Also there's no real difference between the series being dormant and the character being dormant. Either way it shows a lack of care of being used and that fan demand can over come that factor and revitalize an interest in using it. And the argument had nothing to do with regretting a decision it's more if they are going to do promotions it is going to be the characters they felt were worth giving preferential treatment to in the first place. Remember it's only the fans who see ATs as a bad thing.

There are still a fair number of questions out there, such as why keep assist trophies if Nintendo is able to handle much more, why we dont have orher fighters being assists (or pokeballs) in the base game, or why only Isabelle and Ridley were the promoted NPCs from last round. From what it shows the reasonable conclusion is still that Nintendo is only making decisions within restricted resource on hand.

The black hole problem is still that we'd never know if Nintendo really try to satisfy fans as much as they can. I can fairly say some of the assist characters seem to be more suitable as fighters, but it's hard to judge whether this is gonna be a fact for those failed candidates to have the priorty for next round, since new faces always exist in every round of newcomers.

 

[Ninjaed]

Right now the characters we are getting weren't planned

Where was this stated? As far as I know, they could've made plans in case DLC does well from the get-go. Sounds like the most logical thing to do.

 

[Cadillac]

Where was this stated? As far as I know, they could've made plans in case DLC does well from the get-go. Sounds like the most logical thing to do.

Here.

Image credit goes to PolarPanda .
This person says "Wave 2 could happen" and this was in November of 2018. Also I'm pretty sure Sakurai said they weren't planning to make a 2nd fighters pass, but I can't put my finger on it.

 

[Ninjaed]

I'd say this proves the exact opposite. Even way back then, there was mention of a potential 2nd DLC Wave. That to me is evidence that they'd already given it thought. Sad to say it's inconclusive though, could be either way really. Thanks for the share though, I'd forgotten about this!

 

[Cadillac]

I'd say this proves the exact opposite. Even way back then, there was mention of a potential 2nd DLC Wave. That to me is evidence that they'd already given it thought. Sad to say it's inconclusive though, could be either way really. Thanks for the share though, I'd forgotten about this!

Not really sure about Nintendo decided they were going to develop DLC 2 back then.
Though it might be me misunderstanding what you said.

 

[Kalaam]

As for the question "why would they not make more AT based on existing fighter", which is a dumb question.
Yeah, why spend time remaking an inferior version of a character that already is very well represented into the game ?

 

[Organization XIII]

There are still a fair number of questions out there, such as why keep assist trophies if Nintendo is able to handle much more, why we dont have orher fighters being assists (or pokeballs) in the base game, or why only Isabelle and Ridley were the promoted NPCs from last round. From what it shows the reasonable conclusion is still that Nintendo is only making decisions within restricted resource on hand.

The black hole problem is still that we'd never know if Nintendo really try to satisfy fans as much as they can. I can fairly say some of the assist characters seem to be more suitable as fighters, but it's hard to judge whether this is gonna be a fact for those failed candidates to have the priorty for next round, since new faces always exist in every round of newcomers.

Ok, so the first question you mentioned makes no sense. Um, Nintendo and Sakurai develop to the best of their ability. They add ATs because they don't have infinite dev time for fighters. I don't get what you're trying to say about them handling more. They have additional dev time now due to extra DLC which is precisely why they would reevaluate certain characters they couldn't make earlier for time constraints. And if you look at every character we got for Ultimate either upgrade was impossible due to being third party or they upgrade of something more than trophies. Daisy, K Rool. and Inklings were Mii costumes and the last two probably would have gotten more due to the demand but we don't get DLC ATs, Isabelle and Dark Samus were ATs, Ridley was a boss, Inceniroar and Byleth didn't exist to get something more in the first place, and the rest were 3rd parties. Also we don't need to know if Nintendo will try to satisfy fans as much as possible. They never do. The characters we actually ask for that get on the roster are very much a minority. That being said they do give us some. They never forget about who the fans are asking for. And right now the top requested characters even among the time frame of when DLC 2 was decided are all in the base game in some way, so I repeat, if we get any promotions it is far more likely we get promotions of ATs than spirits. I know the Smash community has a habit of burying it's head in the sand and ignoring possibilities until Sakurai comes along and shows fan rules never had any merit but we've literally had ATs who have been promoted already, saying something that has already happened can't during DLC as well is just being silly and narrowing scope for no reason.

 

[Aerospherology]

Here.
View attachment 264678
Image credit goes to PolarPanda.
This person says "Wave 2 could happen" and this was in November of 2018. Also I'm pretty sure Sakurai said they weren't planning to make a 2nd fighters pass, but I can't put my finger on it.

Light mode?

seriously i can barely read it

 

[Cadillac]

Light mode?

seriously i can barely read it

The image isn't mine, and I didn't screenshot it either. Sorry.

 

[Dorayaki]

Ok, so the first question you mentioned makes no sense. Um, Nintendo and Sakurai develop to the best of their ability. They add ATs because they don't have infinite dev time for fighters. I don't get what you're trying to say about them handling more. They have additional dev time now due to extra DLC which is precisely why they would reevaluate certain characters they couldn't make earlier for time constraints. And if you look at every character we got for Ultimate either upgrade was impossible due to being third party or they upgrade of something more than trophies. Daisy, K Rool. and Inklings were Mii costumes and the last two probably would have gotten more due to the demand but we don't get DLC ATs, Isabelle and Dark Samus were ATs, Ridley was a boss, Inceniroar and Byleth didn't exist to get something more in the first place, and the rest were 3rd parties. Also we don't need to know if Nintendo will try to satisfy fans as much as possible. They never do. The characters we actually ask for that get on the roster are very much a minority. That being said they do give us some. They never forget about who the fans are asking for. And right now the top requested characters even among the time frame of when DLC 2 was decided are all in the base game in some way, so I repeat, if we get any promotions it is far more likely we get promotions of ATs than spirits. I know the Smash community has a habit of burying it's head in the sand and ignoring possibilities until Sakurai comes along and shows fan rules never had any merit but we've literally had ATs who have been promoted already, saying something that has already happened can't during DLC as well is just being silly and narrowing scope for no reason.

Like I noted, it's just a matter of choice. You agree that Nintendo decides to keep NPCs as part of the game contents while they can only add a medium number of fighters, that's what we get as result.

To be fair, there are still a good number of unused characters outside Smash bros since the NPCs are still just a small amount of characters while much more characters don't even show up in Smash bros. Of course leading reps like Isaac and Dr Wright directly affect the chances for their franchises, but within presented franchises the choices are still a lot. That pretty much explains why Waluigi isn't destined to be a fighter everytime even if Mario franchise always gets good treat.

 

[Guynamednelson]

while they can only add a medium number of fighters

Only getting a medium number of fighters in the base game didn't stop the promotion of NPCs.

 

[Organization XIII]

Like I noted, it's just a matter of choice. You agree that Nintendo decides to keep NPCs as part of the game contents while they can only add a medium number of fighters, that's what we get as result.

To be fair, there are still a good number of unused characters outside Smash bros since the NPCs are still just a small amount of characters while much more characters don't even show up in Smash bros. Of course leading reps like Isaac and Dr Wright directly affect the chances for their franchises, but within presented franchises the choices are still a lot. That pretty much explains why Waluigi isn't destined to be a fighter everytime even if Mario franchise always gets good treat.

I mean even if Sakurai decided to cut all NPC roles I wouldn't expect the number of characters to shoot up by any significant amount. They give us all they are able too. And yes I do agree there's plenty of series not in Smash and we could get a pass full of just those no problem, but like I said if we get any promotions then they will be characters that were considered worth giving more time to in the first place. The key there is promotions. Will we see any? Will it be just franchise currently outside Smash? Only time will tell. But the chance for promotion itself isn't awful when the super heavy fan favorites are among them.

 

[Dorayaki]

Only getting a medium number of fighters in the base game didn't stop the promotion of NPCs.

They did, with a new Smash game right? Problem remains that the result didn't satisfy certain fans, and there is no guarantee that the DOCs are gonna redeem it or it could just repeat the story.

 

[Kalaam]

It seems that people here really like the idea of AT being a death sentence just because.

 

[Dorayaki]

I mean even if Sakurai decided to cut all NPC roles I wouldn't expect the number of characters to shoot up by any significant amount. They give us all they are able too. And yes I do agree there's plenty of series not in Smash and we could get a pass full of just those no problem, but like I said if we get any promotions then they will be characters that were considered worth giving more time to in the first place. The key there is promotions. Will we see any? Will it be just franchise currently outside Smash? Only time will tell. But the chance for promotion itself isn't awful when the super heavy fan favorites are among them.

I mentioned that we should think Nintendo already made obvious mistake when they didn't choose some very potential franchises to be in the base roster. It's either that they're very confident in their market research or they had very wrong points.

Like said we'd not know if Nintendo do feel it's a mistake after the decisions. More precisely they should not had made any mistake cause we could had rather for a much better roster as a result. I mean , do we really have to waste some slots for Nintendo to regret?

 

[Organization XIII]

I mentioned that we should think Nintendo already made obvious mistake when they didn't choose some very potential franchises to be in the base roster. It's either that they're very confident in their market research or they had very wrong points.

Like said we'd not know if Nintendo do feel it's a mistake after the decisions. More precisely they should not had made any mistake cause we could had rather for a much better roster as a result. I mean , do we really have to waste some slots for Nintendo to regret?

The problem with your logic is you keep expressing it in terms of mistakes. The current status of characters isn't a mistake nor would it be rectified as such. So that doesn't matter. They don't need to view anything as a mistake for upgrades to happen.

 

[-crump-]

I haven’t done this in a loooooong time but I gotta drop in and support my tall purple child.

Waluigi
Chance: 25%
If any AT gets upgraded, it’s gonna be him. Waluigi is a popular, recognizable character whose lack of inclusion on the roster made headlines. If he finally got in, it would create quite a buzz.
I don’t believe ATs are a total death sentence, just a large hurdle. Several ATs are already disabled from appearing on certain stages, so why can’t the dev team just disable the Waluigi AT from appearing when someone is playing as him?
...That said, I still don’t see him being incredibly likely. I’m not discounting the possibility, but I’m not getting my hopes up either.

Want: 100%
He and Shovel Knight are literally the only characters that I care about getting in the Smash roster. Waluigi has been one of my most wanted since I was 7 years old. Would main in a heartbeat if he got in!

Abstaining on Isacc because I don’t know much about him and honestly I don’t really care.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Dixie Kong from the Donkey Kong series and Bandana Dee from the Kirby series.

Predict Rex and Elma, both of which are from the Xenoblade series.

Megadoomer

-----

Music Post

Here are some songs to get in the mood for today's characters:

Dixie

Spoiler: Dixie Kong Music

Bandana Dee

Spoiler: Bandana Dee Music

 

[DaUsername]

It seems that people here really like the idea of AT being a death sentence just because.

It's not that I don't want certain ATs to become playable, I'm just keeping my expectations in check.

 

[Jomosensual]

Dixie Kong

Chance 0 - She runs into the same issue I have with Waluigi, which is I'm not sure what original content she could bring. Stage probably wouldn't be that hard to find, but music and spirits on the other hand feel troublesome. There could be some stuff out there but I'm not sure how much, which is a bit of a problem when they've already clarified that they are adding all those things into the game. The other option is a Diddy echo, but we haven't gotten a single DLC echo yet and there aren't any indications we will be getting any more than we have right now. Overall I feel like her best shot was in the base game and we're well past that now. It also feels like the steam behind this character died off a lot after the base game. IDK if that was because it looked like the fighters pass was going to be all 3rd party or what, but the momentum isn't where it used to be now. I feel pretty confident at this point we will not see Dixie Kong as a playable fighter in Smash Ultimate.

Want 10 - I get why people want her in the game, but I have a really hard time wanting Dixie Kong when Cranky is one of my bigger wants and interests me more in every way. Being the original DK puts him above her as far as iconicness goes IMO and I think there's a lot more fun of a moveset for him too. Even if you'd have to explain that he's the original DK it's possible to do that via the moveset and the Sakurai presentation. To get things back on topic, I'm not going to take away from Dixie, but I think Cranky is such a slam dunk good pick that I don't want anyone else from DK first.


Hat Goomba

Chance 1 - This feels pretty dead too. The random generic enemy argument officially died with Piranha Plant but I don't think that's going to end up mattering for this game. There's some Kirby stuff missing from the game so there's at least some content we could get with him. Is that content likely? Well..... maybe not. Apparently Sakurai has no interest in including it since it wasn't stuff he created(or at least that's how I remember people talking about it from when we did Adeline) which leaves us with the same deal as Dixie and Waluigi where there might just not be enough to add into the game. BWD also isn't as popular as Waluigi is right now so I dont think they could get by with just scrapping Sakurai approved stuff together and calling it good for a challenger pack. Like Dixie, I think his best shot was base roster but that's long gone, and the only thing keeping him alive is if Sakurai changed his mind and added the other Kirby content in which is why Im not giving him a flat out 0.

Want 10 - There's not really any more Kirby characters I want in the game. Marx might be interesting but he's a boss but otherwise I think everyone we already have is good enough for me. I'm also not that into a spear fighter character. There's just not that much you can do with a spear that interests me that much. If we're looking towards first party characters I'd rather go a different direction

Predicts
Rex 13%
Elma 4%

Noms
Falinks x5

 

[Calamitas]

The one not featured in the DK Rap

Chance: 16%
Dixie is, too me, in a bit of a spot that's tricky to judge. On the one hand, we know that with King K. Rool, Sakurai and his team already had their eyes on a newcomer for the DK series, and we know that she came very close to making it into Brawl. But the big question right now is, do Sakurai and his team consider K. Rool enough attention for the DK series already or not? They have to be aware of fan requests, considering the newcomers we've gotten so far for this game, but for Dixie. . . I'm kinda doubtful towards her chances. The direction of the last Fighter Pass honestly just as not left me with a lot of faith for first-party characters.

Want: 70%
The only DK games that I ever played were Tropical Freeze and Returns 3D, only one of which even had Dixie in it. But for what it's worth, I did enjoy her the most out of all the possible partners in TF. I don't think that her moveset would really be the most interesting thing in the world, but I think she still has enough potential to be servicable.

Left on read by Sakurai

Chance: 7%
Stoppable force (fan requests) vs unmovable object (Sakurai's possible bias towards his own work with regards to Kirby). I just really don't see Bandana Waddle Dee having much of a chance. To me it just seems like the Kirby series is in much the same boat as the Zelda series, where Sakurai considers its choice and amount of playable characters to already be perfect.

Want: 60%
I'm not really a Kirby fan, and have never played any of the games that prominently feature BWD, but I'd quite like him. Don't really have anything else to say on that.

Predicting Elma to get around 10.01%.
Predicting Rex to get around 28.43%.

Nominating Any Octopath Traveler rep x5.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Dixie Kong:

Chance: 5% - The circumstances around Ultimate's DLC and how every character needs to have a whole pack tailored around them really hurts characters like Dixie imo. There's no doubt that Dixie is a pretty important Nintendo character, but with how DLC has gone so far I don't think Nintendo are too interested in picking characters like her who aren't going to catch a whole lot of attention. At the end of the day Dixie is the 3rd wheel of the DKC cast, and while she's a sensible and somewhat popular pick, she's also fairly unspectacular, because while she does tick a lot of boxes, I don't think there's a single one of those boxes where she does that particular thing better than anyone else, if that makes any sense. Yeah, I rated Waluigi a lot higher, and you can argue some of the same points against him, but his widespread and very high popularity, as well as being able to represent Mario spinoffs at large, does make his life a lot easier. For me Dixie Kong is the very epitome of a base game addition, with DLC it's not so easy to just expand on what's already in the game as the character and the contents of its pack needs to be able to shine even when put alone in the spotlight.

Want: 50% - I'm perfectly fine with the DKC content we have in the game for now, for me K. Rool was the more immediate need. However, I do acknowledge that Dixie is a big Nintendo character, I'm actually fairly surprised she's not in the game yet, if only because she fit in really well with Smash 4's approach to newcomer additions, so in a sense it does feel like she's one of very few missing pieces of the larger puzzle. Ultimately I would be fairly neutral towards her.

Bandana Dee:

Chance: 5% - Pretty much for all the same reasons as with Dixie Kong, except she was at least the main character in a mainline game of her series, and Bandana Dee is as far down as being 4th in the pecking order of his franchise. However, I'm pretty confident he had a fairly decent showing in the ballot, contrary to Dixie who was very much underprioritized by most DKC fans in favor of K. Rool at the time, and the lack of modern Kirby content in the game would make it easier to build a pack around him, so in the end it kinda evens out.

Want: 70% - I'll admit that my desire to see the little guy get in has waned slightly over the years, and it seems I'm not the only one as his fanbase is fairly subdued in comparison to the Smash 4 days. I am still a Kirby fan though, so I would always be pretty happy to see him. I don't consider him a big priority or anything, but he would be a pretty satisfying addition as he's stuck around for quite a while in the speculation scene at this point.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 50%
We don't really know the nature of the 2nd Fighter's Pass, so things could go either way. After Byleth, I'm not doubting any 1st Party characters getting in anymore. We'll just have to wait and see.


Want: 100%
Truly the biggest missing 1st Party character for me. Ultimate's roster will never be complete without her. What a shame that after this long, she still isn't in. I just can't comprehend it. With the resume she has and being one of the first female Nintendo characters to headline her own game alongside Samus, I believe she's more than overdue.

Bandanna Dee

Chance: 50%
Same as what I wrote for Dixie. We'll just have to wait and see.

Want: 60%
He's OK. I never really got to play Return to Dreamland in Multiplayer much and on the few occasions I did, I usually was forced into playing Kirby as Player 1 due to the fact that only younger cousins and family friends and such would agree to play Kirby with me, which meant I would have to carry the less skilled players through the parts of Return to Dreamland that required Kirby. Therefore my exposure to him was relatively limited back in the day because of RtDL forcing player 1 to always play as Kirby. The other modern Kirby games I played usually just had him as a background character (Triple Deluxe and Planet Robobot), so it really wasn't until Star Allies that I got to play as him for an extended period of time in a mode other than the Boss Endurance one.

But I do like the spear ability a lot, and he's cute. I think him and Dixie are what we need to balance out Ridley and K. Rool in that regard. I'd probably put him on the same level as Waluigi and Toad in terms of my wants. Though there are plenty of other Kirby candidates I'd like to see.

Nominate:
Chun-Li x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Both of today's characters have a major thing in common, their best shots were in the base roster.

Dixie Kong
Chance: 0%
I'm pretty sure this can't happen anymore. What content can she even bring? She would need a spirit board, we already have a ton of DK spirits. She would need a new stage, which may or may not be a problem, idk if there is an option for one or not. What I'm thinking is the biggest blow against her is that she would need a completely unique moveset. Dixie Kong has always been speculated as being a semi clone/echo of Diddy Kong. I would be shocked if Sakurai made us pay for a semi clone. Oh we also have the fact that she's a spirit, so she's been deconfirmed for a while imo. Even if we were doing spirit upgrades, we have better options there too! We have Rex who was planned for the base roster with about the same fan support as Dixie and Geno who I would say is the most requested character that hasn't happened. The only thing she has going for her is fan demand, but as Geno clearly demonstrates, fan demand alone doesn't hand you a slot. She missed her chance in the base roster. If this was base roster speculation, a lot of this stuff wouldn't matter or at least wouldn't mean as much.

Want: 0%
Diddy Kong is one of my least favorite characters to play as in the game. I absolutely do not want another one. 98% of the time Dixie gets brought up it's as an echo/semi Clone of Diddy. I don't think you can justify her taking a slot in the fighters pass as either of those. She's nowhere close to the top of my wanted character list in any capacity.

Bandana Waddle Dee
Chance: 0%
I want to start off by saying that I don't think Sakurai hates BWD because he didn't create him. I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that theory being anything than a circlejerk. It actually resembles the way some LoL players make **** up about Riot because they don't like a balance decision that was made. If someone has evidence for it I would like to see it, this rumor's been around for a while and I feel out of the loop on it.

Any lets get back on topic. Bandana Waddle Dee has some similar issues to Dixie. A lot of it could just be copy-pasted down. His series already has so many spirits and I don't know what you would do for a stage. He's not Geno or Rex, so I severely doubt an upgrade is in his future. Atleast he's not almost exclusively talked about in the context of being a semi clone/echo fighter. A spear would be unique but I don't think that alone is a good enough reason for him to be made playable. I don't like the "Player 4" argument either because it just sounds like people are admitting the character is irrelevant.

Want: 0%
I don't think Kirby needs anymore reps. The 3 we have now are fine.


Predictions:
Rex 22%
Elma 7%

Noms: Gnar x5

 

[jamesster445]

BanDee
Chance: 30%
Want:75%

Even if he is a "hat goomba", does that even matter at this point? I say add him, why not? Throw a bone to Kirby fans. I just dont know where I stand with Spirit upgrades.

Dixie Kong
Chance: 20%
Want: 100%

One of my most wanted 1st party characters. Sadly I dont see her getting in. A, whether or not spirit upgrades are a thing. B, given Sakurai's rate of adding DK characters, we won't see her until the next 2 Smash games.

Nominations: Ring Fit Adventure

 

[GoodGrief741]

Harley Quinn stole her bubblegum gun

Chance: 21%
Hard to say. Dixie, honestly, is to me one of the most likely Spirit/Mii Costume promotions. She has the demand, she certainly has the legacy, she has the moveset potential, she was even in contention back in Brawl. She absolutely has stage potential, for one, she could come with a non-jungle stage, which is something that DK fans have been asking for for a while (maybe like a Tropical Freeze stage), plus there's many DK games without stages. Music-wise there's tons of room to grow, as while Ultimate finally stepped up and gave us a couple of DKC2 songs, we could use more of them, and more of TF (not to mention that I don't think we have a single DKC3 song). Spirits might be an issue but I'm sure it can be worked out.

However, while these are all pros, and I think Dixie finally getting in Smash after so many years of snubs is a big deal, yeah, maybe they want a bigger headline. There are more popular Spirits and more popular first party characters to promote if they wanted to, so I can sadly see Dixie getting passed over. But if the pass is aiming for first parties only or for fan favorites only, I think she has a great shot.

Want: 100%
Dixie Kong deserves to finally get her recognition as one of Nintendo's first and foremost heroines. She's a huge character for her series and for Nintendo. C'mon Sakurai, if you're going to overexplain on your Directs, you can at least educate people on this. Dixie is one of Smash's glaring omissions and the quickest it's fixed the better.

"It's a Hind Dee..."

Chance: 24%
Bandana Dee is a really popular character in the West, but he's also overwhelmingly popular in Japan. I'm willing to bet that either he or Sora won the Ballot over there. Dude has moveset potential galore, considering how the first character to wield a spear does so for only a few moves, and Dee, with his special body shape, cartoon sensibilities, and maybe even Star Allies' elemental powers, can do much more. Like Dixie, his franchise is poorly represented enough that finding stage and music candidates is sadly super easy. Just get anything that Sakurai didn't make and boom, tons of new stuff. Even Spirits are super easy as Kirby has lots of glaring absences. Dee has grown to be one of Nintendo's modern rising stars like Ashley and Isabelle, and he's gained the prominence to match - he's now firmly a Kirby playable mainstay, and lore-wise he's basically Kirby's sidekick. Say what you will about Player 4, but Dee's the only other character unlocked from the get-go in Star Allies.

But the things that make him likely are also the things that make him unlikely, I'd say. All of the stage and music and Spirit potential exists because, well, they haven't been included, and their conspicuous exclusion has led many to believe that Sakurai either has something against or at least doesn't care about the part of Kirby he hasn't made. And Bandana Dee as a character is very much a part of Kirby he hasn't made. So it's possible that he sees the main cast as complete (which is true, but only for the games he made). I do think Dee has better chances to be included than Dixie because at least Kirby as a series is treated somewhat decently by Nintendo and his Japanese popularity, like Rex's, might reach their ears more.

Want: 100%
Dee's a good boy. He's brave and strong and cute and I'll protect him with my life. Let him shine as the star he is.

Noms: Kiryu x5
Rex: now Rex is an anime swordfighter from a relevant game so people will rally for him. 36.75%
Elma: Elma is not relevant and as we all know only relevant characters can get in so she will get around 14.86%

 

[Garteam]

I don't have the time to do a full write-up and rating on either character because I have to get going to class. However, I think people are really, really sleeping on Bandana Waddle Dee. Dude did very well on the ballot, especially in Japan, where he pulled number comparable to King K. Rool and the vets.

Likewise, Sakurai's hatred of modern Kirby is really overblown. The biggest thing people cite when discussing this is modern Kirby's lack of a stage but Wooly World in Wii U was going to be an Epic Yarn stage until the eleventh hour, so I really don't see that as evidence.

That's not to say Bandana Waddle Dee is guaranteed (the fact we still haven't seen a legacy character from a Nintendo series in Smash DLC isn't great), but I think his popularity alone gives him at least a fighting chance.