Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[chocolatejr9]

I'm going to abstain here, as I don't exactly know what Bandai Namco's place in this Smash game is. I'd go into more detail, but that would be off-topic.

Nominations: Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Captain Toad
4.62% Chance, 56.74% Want
Winner of predictions was FancySmash with 4.56%
Last time we rated him he got 16.14% Chance and 56.14% Want. The fall in chance can be easily attributed to this being a pre-Joker rating. Want staying nearly the same is interesting, I guess the Captain's fans will not be swayed by poor odds.

Dixie Kong
14.17% Chance, 81.92% Want
Winner of predictions was Sari by virtue of being the highest prediction, with 13.06%
Last time we rated her she got 22.57% Chance and 67.42% Want. We rated her before the game was even released, but her Spirit was already known by then (not sure about her Mii Costume). I think people were and are betting on an Echo pass, which would explain her low drop in chance. Want grew a lot. Banjo fans rallying to her side? A craving for any first party character? She virtually swapped Want scores with Bandana Dee.
Dixie is now the character with the highest Want.

Those with the most noms

Artix 10 noms
Awakining 5 noms
DaUsername 50 noms
Delzethin 5 noms
FancySmash 10 noms
GoodGrief741 40 noms
Nemuresu 5 noms
Ridrool64 5 noms
Sari 100 noms (Congrats!)
shocktarts17 5 noms
Ramen Tengoku 5 noms
Ultomato 5 noms

 

[Deleted member]

Villager's Side Special.

Chance:30%

Im surprised that people are giving Lloyd such high scores in Chances. Not to say that he is a bad candidate at all though.

Benefits:
-He hails from the Tales series, a highly popular JRPG franchise and one of the most famous examples of Action RPGs (agruably the most well known series of this genre not counting KH and the FF ARPGs)
-Symphonia is considered one of the most important games in the franchise, beign the turning point from the series in the west and Lloyd is a symbol of this breaktrhrough.
-The Tales's series gameplay is as close to Smash as it can be. It's absurd how easy to translate the gameplay of Symphonia in Smash, which is a HUGE advantage over Tekken's Heihachi who Sakurai saw as a much harder to implement.
-Lloyd is seen as many as the de-facto choice for Smash by many, and that likely means he was the most requested character by the ballot. This seems to be the case in the eyes Sakurai as well, since Sakurai said that out of all the Mii Costume choices for Tales, it was Lloyd and no one else came close.
-If K.Rool and Chrom are any indication, Lloyd's mii costume may be a hint of Lloyd beign a popular choice that Sakurai and his team are aware of.


If im honest, a Tales rep is the most likely choice for a second Bandai character. Klonoa is dead, Kos-Mos is simply too obscure, etc. The only true competitor in my opinion is Heihachi due to Tekken beign Namco's Cash Cow, but Sakurai turned him down due to having a hard time figuring out his moveset and seeing how Ryu was implement in Smash, this is something that may hurt Heihachi more than people realize (now i know, Pac-Man, Ridley and Miis could be seen this way too, but i digress) also he appears in Pac-Man's taunt, take that as you will.

Want:35%

Eh, is cool. I actually have Vesperia, and i can see myself playing more Titles of Tales. What really sold me on accepting him is that Tales is literally a Smash RPG in controls. You have a normal attack button and then a special button that does different attacks if you hold a direction+the special button.

Also i know Lloyd has been a requested character since the Smash 4 days, and Pac-Man's inclusion hurt his chances in the eyes of many. But with the Belmonts and Ryu beign in Smash this is a non-issue. I mean i played as him in SSF2, he may be fun in Smash.

I think his Name is Yaoi or something.

Chance:10%

I think people are severly oversestimating Yuri's chances based on his fan popularity alone. Fan Popularity in your home series does not equeal fan demand in Smash. Also, remember what happened with Castlevania.

Alcuard is generally agreed to be the fan favorite of the community, yet you would be hard pressed to find anyone who thought that a Castlevania character was going to be anyone BUT Simon (and by lesser extent, other members of the Belmont Clan) this sentiment was echoed via Sakurai, who chose Simon and Richter instead. I see Yuri in that same position.

I know Vesperia is on Switch, but seeing how Joker is in Smash and P5 is nowhere to be found (SPIN OFFS DON'T COUNT) i dobut this means anything (this is also the reason as to why i don't see Tales or Arise affecting Lloyd in Smash)

I do think he's a poissibility though.

Want:40%
With Vesperia beign my first forray into the series, i do have an attachtment to Yuri more than Lloyd. With that said, im not interesed in him enough to see him as a better choice than Lloyd.

I do have to say, these 2 are the only Namco newcomers im okay with seeing next. Kos-Mos, Tekken characters, hell any other Tales characters like Cress or Velvet are just lame in my eyes.

There's Klonoa but.............he's dead Jim.

Noms:
Sir Arthur X3
Rad Spencer (Bionic Commando) X2

 

[Jomosensual]

Lloyd

Chance 30 - If we get a Namco rep I think it will be him. However, Im really not sure we're getting one anymore. The fan demand is there though and Namco could get a new rep so I like his chances better than most other characters, but yeah. Still not sold on Namco getting another rep.

Want 50 - Very neutral on him getting in. Wouldn't love it or hate it.

Yuri
Chance 10 - Pretty much the same deal as Lloyd, but Lloyd has the fan demand behind him. Haven't really heard much buzz about him getting into Smash as Lloyd had, which makes me think that Lloyd would be the Tales of pick if someone from that game was getting in

Want 50 - Same as above. Very neutral on it.

Noms:
Kratos x5

 

[Nemuresu]

Tales folks:
Lloyd chance: 50%
Yuri chance: 50%
I'm going to give these two the same chance rate. Why? Easy enough, it all depends on what Sakurai prefers to add. If he wants to cater to a wider public, he'd include Yuri, but if he prefers to appeal to Nintendo fans' preferences, he's gonna go with Lloyd. After all, this Pass has had characters that cater to a general audience (Joker), promotional characters (Hero through Luminary) and fan-favourites (Banjo).

Lloyd want: 50%
Yuri want: 40%
I haven't played any Tales games, for my unfortune. My knowledge on what they can do is based on Super Smash Flash 1 and 2 and both Project X Zone games. Lloyd has a nice moveset with his two blades representing different elements, while Yuri is not as flashy with his techniques. That said though, if another Namco character joins, I'd rather see someone from Tekken or SoulCalibur instead.

Predictions:
Rayman: 4.24%
Ezio: 23.37%
Ezio's got the advantage due to the simple fact that he's not already in the game.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

24 hour notice for this day. Get in, make sure your posts are ok.

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

LIoyd
Chance 60%:He's the most likely tales of rep since there's a lot of fan demand, the gameplay of his game is easiest to translate into smash, and Sakurai even said if there was a tales of rep to join in the game it would be LIoyd.
Want abstain: I Haven't played his game to experience it .

Yuri Lowell
Chance 35%:Yuri is also likely but not as much as LIoyd due to having less fan demand and the tales rep would be LIoyd statement did hurt his chances.
Want Abstain: Like with LIoyd I also Haven't played his game.

Nominations: Glover X5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Abstaining on Yuri

Lloyd
Chance: 40%
Want: 50%

-Sakurai has mentioned adding Lloyd when thinking about a Tales representative
-Semi popular request
-Not a spirit

I'm indifferent towards Lloyd TBH. He's got both a flaming and freezing sword, which is cool I guess? I wouldn't be mad if he made it, but I just don't care.

Rayman: 3.94%
Ezio: 2.42%

Heavy x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Hey TCT~Phantom?

Yes me?

Why not give a whole 24 hours plus an extra twelve for people to post?

Good idea. Maybe the Lloyd thread will come buy.

They did not QQ.

Day over, rate Ezio and Rayman and predict Geno and Sora.

Imma do these real quick

Ezio
5% Chance

One hurdle Ezio faces is the fact that the AC franchise moved past him. While AC does have a market in Japan, Ezio has been left behind since Revelations in 2011. Another he faces as well is the lack of demand for an AC rep. Banjo gives us good evidence that fan demand matters, otherwise we would have gotten Steve at E3. As such, a certain limbless wonder outclasses him and AC in general.

Despite this I feel Ezio is the most likely AC rep. The AC hood and hidden blade is the iconic AC design. AC might have moved past Ezio, but he is the most recurring protagonist by a lot. As such, I would give an AC rep ~10% but Ezio half of that. I feel that while it is a big franchise with a market in Japan, I am doubtful on him.


30% Want

While moveset wise he interests me, I do not like AC much. I find the franchise fatigued me with mediocre storytelling and too many releases. That being said, a stealth based assassination moveset would be cool, built around setting up the perfect kill.

Rayman

15% Chance

Spirits are a bad sign, we know that. Despite that, Rayman has a few good things going for him. He is relatively popular in the West as a fan request. He has a solid legacy in the West. Rayman Legends was a big Wii U title in the west.

Noticing a trend here? The Japanese do not care at all about Rayman. At least far less than the west. While previous fan requests like K Rool and Banjo were far more demanded in the west, they still had plenty of popularity in the East. Ridley is the closest analogy but the Ridley fandom dwarfed Raymans significantly, with him being the most hotly debated newcomer back in the day, with resounding western demand. Rayman is less popular in this fandom than Ridley was, so while a fan favorite I do not think it will get him over Japanese obscurity, especially when there is nothing for Nintendo and Ubisoft to advertise.

100% Want

I like the character. Rayman Legends is a goddamn masterpiece. It is one of the greatest 2D platformers of all time. If you have not experienced it please do next time it goes on sale. Origins is not far behind in that regard. I also love Rayman 1 and 3 (2 has aged poorly imo) a lot too. A good franchise I would love to see in the game.

Nominating Proto Man x 5

 

[Blackwolf666]

Ezio

Chance: 10%
Assassins Creed has made a big impact on gaming and Ezio is arguably the most popular protagonist out of the bunch.

Want: 15%

Rayman: chance 20%
I can easily see him making it into smash one day but part of me Believes it won’t be as a playable character.

Want: 20%

Nominating
LEGO Batman x 5

 

[Sari]

Some music for today's characters:

Rayman

Spoiler

Ezio

Spoiler

----------

"RaYmAn Is FrOzEn On BaTtLeFiElD"

Chance: 10%
I believe more than ever that spirits are a death sentence for a character's chances, at least for this wave of DLC. It's a shame though because if it wasn't for that I honestly think Rayman would be the first pick for a Ubisoft character, considering his presence in past Smash games, more vocal Smash support (which can help a lot as we've seen with characters like Banjo), and Mario even having a crossover with the Rabbids (a spin-off of the Rayman games). Even if he wasn't a spirit though there's a chance he'd have some internal series competition with Rabbids.

Want: 70%
I've played a few Rayman games in the past and think that he'd be a great fit for Smash. Like with Banjo he's just one of those characters that'd fit into Smash so well that you'd forget he was third party. Also thanks TCT~Phantom you just reminded me that I have to pick up Legends someday.

-----

Ezio

Chance: 20%
With Rayman supposedly out of the picture Ezio is probably the most likely Ubisoft rep. His series is bigger than Rayman's and he's very recognizable in the gaming community.

Want: 25%
I never really got into Assassin's Creed so I'd be lying if I said I wanted Ezio more than Rayman. If he did make it in I wouldn't mind it much and he'd probably have a really cool moveset.

----------

Geno chance prediction: 6.86%
Sora chance prediction: 3.41%

With being confirmed I don't think either is likely.

----------

Nominations:
Using my 100 extra noms + the daily 5, I will throw them towards something completely new...

Concept: Rockstar Games rep x105

Nominating
LEGO Batman x 5

I'm pretty sure we're not allowed to vote for non-videogame characters.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Nominating
LEGO Batman x 5

Uhhh... this is 4th party territory here in both departments. Batman is a DC superhero character (comics), and Lego is a toy franchise that has its own spinoff series of games...

 

[MrMcNuts]

Rayman
Chance: 20%
He's a spirit so that's going against him but he's also the most requested Ubisoft rep and Banjo shows that fan demand matters, and Ubisoft and Nintendo are close so if we get a ubisoft rep eventually it'll be him. I know he ain't popular in Japan but his games are still available there so players there could learn about him (can't say the same for Marth or Lucas at the time they debuted over here)

Want: 100%
My most wanted character he's so overdue

Ezio
Chance: 1%
Sure it's Ubisoft's biggest franchise and it sells in Japan but it's still not that big over there. There's also no fan demand going for Ezio or Assassins Creed like at all. Also doubt that the Nintendo market really plays assasins Creed much.

Want: 0%
Any Ubisoft rep before Rayman is just a middle finger considering Rayman is the only one who has a big fan demand

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ezio

Chance: 10%
Assassins Creed has made a big impact on gaming and Ezio is arguably the most popular protagonist out of the bunch.

Want: 15%

Rayman: chance 20%
I can easily see him making it into smash one day but part of me Believes it won’t be as a playable character.

Want: 20%

Nominating
LEGO Batman x 5

This aint it chief.

1. No 4th party characters. They must originate from a video game.

2. Two sentences per score. Needs more reasoning.

 

[Blackwolf666]

I'm pretty sure we're not allowed to vote for non-videogame characters.

Uhhh... this is 4th party territory here.

True that Batman, the character that he's based off of, originated from a different form of media, but Lego Batman originated from video games... I know I'm "stretching the rubberband on this" but find it to be an interesting subject

 

[TCT~Phantom]

True that Batman, the character that he's based off of, originated from a different form of media, but Lego Batman originated from video games... I know I'm "stretching the rubberband on this" but find it to be an interesting subject

No. We are not rating Lego Batman. Further discussion on this will be considered off topic.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Rayman

Chance: 0%
As much as it hurts me, I have to give Rayman the same treatment I gave to the other Spirit characters. There's a battle against him in WoL and he's not even in a place you can skip. Considering his games tend to bomb in Japan compared to the west, I don't know if I would see him as FP material even if he wasn't a Spirit, sadly. And without him, I don't see Ubisoft pushing any other character, so you might already know how I feel about Ezio...

Want: 100%
Rayman has been one of my most wanted third parties for a long time. However, I have to concede he's about as C-Tier as it gets compared to the characters in the Pass so far. Even Ubisoft seems to really want him in, and he's arguably the closest thing they have to a mascot. But the stars haven't aligned for our limbless hero yet...

Ezio

Chance: 5%
Without Rayman, he's one of Ubi's most likely candidates... but even saying that is stretching it. Frankly, I really don't see any reason why he or any other AC rep would be considered right now. I think one day Ubisoft might get their games recognized in the form of a playable character, but that day is still a long way ahead...

Is he impossible? No, not by any means. But... there are a lot more characters that would be easier for Sakurai to make arrangements for and that could bring entirely new mechanics to the game. I don't see Ezio fulfilling either of those conditions. Meanwhile, we have some characters from Capcom, Namco, SNK, Tecmo, Level-5 and even Bethesda that are more likely than an Assassin or a Rabbid.

Want: 1%
I only played a little bit of Brotherhood and have no attachment to the series at all. I guess I'd be alright with it, but there are at least a few 3rd parties I'd want to see before that. Not to mention, Ubi's first character in Smash not being Rayman would just be wrong in my opinion. It's like if we had Morrigan and Joe, iconic as they are, before Ryu and Mega Man.

Nominations:
Kyo Kusanagi x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Not a Robot Master

Chance: 1%
A Spirit. Plus he's not the kind of character that sells as DLC, I don't think. Japan also doesn't care about the guy, and this is a platformer we're talking about. I honestly don't think Nintendo cares about him either. I wouldn't expect him to ever get in Smash.

Want: 25%
I don't hate him, but I don't have a very positive opinion. Rayman isn't iconic, he isn't from a big influential game, so he feels like a really random choice. The only thing that saves him is his fandom, and he has some great games, so I wouldn't mind him. But I'll never get why he amassed such a fandom.

The Hearing Man

Chance: 15%
Unlike Rayman Ezio is an iconic character from an iconic franchise. Assassin's Creed is one of the best selling franchises of all time, selling over 100 million copies. That's over Zelda. Unlike, say, stuff like Minecraft, Call of Duty or other popular series, Assassin's Creed is actually character based and has a moveset not based on guns. I think if we were to ever get a Ubisoft rep it would absolutely be him, and that's already a big if.

Want: 65%
Not someone I'm rooting for, and AC has gone down the drain after Syndicate in my eyes. Still, AC2 is an absolute classic and Ezio would bring charm and freshness into the roster.

Predictions (for both): 1%

Noms: Crono X5

 

[Ed-boy]

Well, guess I'm doing this again.

I'm gonna have to abstain on Ezio. I'm aware of the cultural impact of AC, but I've yet to play a single title in my years on this earth. That's always subject to change in the future, though.

Rayman:

Chance - 30%.
Nowhere near as high as I once thought at the first round of Ultimate speculation. While I myself am still not fully convinced that it deconfirms, the spirit likely does count for something. Couple that with his nonexistence in Japan compared to the likes of Banjo or especially Crash, Ubisoft's current neglection of the series, and his Smash support, in general, dying down, it's sadly not looking that good for limbless man in purple.

Want - 100%
Nothing's changed here. I still really, really want to see Rayman earn his spot in what is, at this point, the video game hall of fame. He'd gel flawlessly with the more "toony" members of the Smash cast. His games, though they fly under the radar, are seemingly praised by the majority of people who have played them. The material from Rayman 1-3 and the Ubiart duology can bring something new (or atleast fun) to the table as far as movesets go.

I get that he's not as iconic or influential as Ezio or other candidates, but I feel the same could be said for others already in the roster, so he's fair game as far as I'm concerned (though I guess I'm biased in that regard). And I know I just talked about his low chances, but a part of me still thinks it could happen. It wouldn't be the first time a character who was seemingly dead in the water made it big, after all.

 

[GoodGrief741]

The time has come. Sari's dropped over 100 noms at once. 'Tis truly a historical event what we've witnessed.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Lloyd Irving/Yuri Lowell pre-Rayman/Ezio

Heavy (Team Fortress) x171
Crono x145
Kyle Hyde x145
Kamek x134
Ellie (The Last of Us) x120
Saber (Fate) x117
Rundas x115

150 - 101

Cadence (Crypt of the Necrodancer) x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
Ninten x95
Terry Bogard x95
Gene (God Hand) x90
Frogger x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Glover x85
9-Volt x80
Velvet Crowe x80
Specter Knight x80
Adeleine (Kirby) x78
Jin Kazama x70
[Rerate] Micaiah x70
X (Mega Man) x68
Blaze the Cat x65
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x55
Concept: More Bosses x55
Captain Rainbow x52
Papyrus x51
Decidueye x51

50 - 25

Brian (Quest 64) x47
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x40
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x40
Gooey (Kirby) x37
Concept: DLC challenges x35
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Qbby x30
Earthworm Jim x30
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x28
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x28
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25
Concept: Another western character x25

Under 25

Reporter & Wrestler x20
Tora and Poppi x20
Johnny Silverhand x20
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x20
Amaterasu x20
Kyo Kusanagi x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
King Boo x16
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Kratos x15
Lara Croft x15
Proto Man x15
Black Shadow x13
Concept: Another joke character x13
Gex x12
Mike Jones x11
Marx (Kirby) x11
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x10
Concept: Grookey's final evolution x10
Concept: Medabots rep x10
Sir Arthur (Ghosts 'n Goblins) x10
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x10
Magolor x9
Toon Zelda x8
Blacephalon x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
Rash x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Concept: League of Legends rep x5
Serious Sam x5
Lizalfos x4
Urbosa x3
Concept: No More DLC x3
Boss: Sans x2
Sub-Zero x2
Concept: Street Fighter Mii costumes x2
Rad Spencer x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
Pappy Van Poodle x1
Dr. Eggman x1
Toon Zelda & Tetra x1
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x1

Concept: More Bosses and Decidueye cross 50 noms and are therefore safe from the purge.

Reimu Hakurei flies over 25 noms.

Your new challengers for the day are Serious Sam (5 noms) and Rad Spencer (2 noms). The serious and the rad, what a duo.

 

[MrMcNuts]

Also wanted to add that I feel Rayman would bring a much more unique moveset vs whatever Ezio would bring, which would give Rayman some points in his favor

 

[Opossum]

Ezio

Chance: 1%
The Piranha Plant Percent. Ubisoft is close with Nintendo, western games are on the table, Ezio is undoubtedly iconic, and Assassin's Creed has a cult following in Japan iirc, while Rayman is pretty much a Literal Who there. Plus Rayman is a spirit, so Ezio's main competition is out of the running.

Want: 100%
Ezio would be infinitely more interesting than Rayman, who could... punch from really far away? Like an ARMS character? When I played the first game nothing stood out about him at all.

Ezio, though, is all kinds of cool. Plus having Metal Gear and Assassin's Creed, the two Kings of Stealth Games, would be undeniably cool.

 

[Neosonic97]

Hero of the Glade of Dreams

Chance: OOOOOOOOF
Spirits are basically a death sentence in the age of DLC and that means bad news for Rayman fans. Though we can look on the bright side...
At least he's not taking the sidelines in favour of the Rabbids. At least, I hope he isn't!

Want: 60%
Rayman definitely deserves a spot. There's no doubt about that. He'd also be my first choice for a rep from Ubisoft, too. If, y'know, his chances weren't brutally murdered in THIS game too. First Smash 4 and now this? C'mon, Nintendo! Give the poor limbless guy a break!

Gonna have to abstain on Ezio, though.

Geno Prediction: oof (0%)

Sora Prediction: 20%

Noms: Reimu rerate x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Hero of the Glade of Dreams

Chance: OOOOOOOOF
Spirits are basically a death sentence in the age of DLC and that means bad news for Rayman fans. Though we can look on the bright side...
At least he's not taking the sidelines in favour of the Rabbids. At least, I hope he isn't!

Want: 60%
Rayman definitely deserves a spot. There's no doubt about that. He'd also be my first choice for a rep from Ubisoft, too. If, y'know, his chances weren't brutally murdered in THIS game too. First Smash 4 and now this? C'mon, Nintendo! Give the poor limbless guy a break!

Gonna have to abstain on Ezio, though.

Geno Prediction: oof (0%)

Sora Prediction: 20%

Wait, do you always mean 0% when you say oof? I've been counting them as abstentions.

Also I have doubts that Rayman deserves to be in pls explain

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Ezio

Chance: 1%
I guess he's not completely impossible, he has been on a Nintendo console and all. But, I dunno, I don't really think he's that iconic among Nintendo fans nor is he really a fan favorite.

Want: 0%
Yeah, I really don't care that much about him, especially when there are so many other characters I'd rather have. Doesn't really stand out to me among all the other reps in his genre.

Rayman

Chance: 25%
His odds are low, but he could conceivably make an appearance. Unlike most on this thread, I don't think Spirits are an automatic death knell, but I don't think he's very likely either.

Want: 50%
He's not someone I'm obsessed about, but I've had plenty of fun with his games and he'd fit great in Smash. I certainly wouldn't mind his inclusion.

 

[AndreaAC]

Its has been years since I have done one of those ratings, and funny that one of them was Ezio.

Rayman -

Chance: 50%

Despite me feeling that Brawlhalla and the whole Spirit deal might affect him, maybe there's still chance that Nintendo takes him into consideration. He might not be much of a hit in JP, but, having him in Smash considering the demand outside of it, like Ridley's despite Metroid not being popular there, could make it happen.

Want: 10%

I used to be a supporter, but the fandom made me take that back. I would only want him because friends of mine do and because I still adore him as a character.

Ezio

Chance: 1%

Considering Smash has been adding a lot of protagonists from M rated games lately...he's a possibility.

Want: 0%

I am personally more drawn to other protagonists of the franchise (Shay Cormac specifically). I think he has gotten way too much attention from Ubi and most of the fandom while the others get shoved to the side. He's in Soul Calibur V, Soul Hunters with Rayman, just to name a few examples. Besides, I think the only AC games that have been on Nintendo consoles are AC Black Flag and AC III, not the Ezio trilogy.

Ps: I don't know if I did this right...

 

[GoodGrief741]

Its has been years since I have done one of those ratings, and funny that one of them was Ezio.

Rayman -

Chance: 50%

Despite me feeling that Brawlhalla and the whole Spirit deal might affect him, maybe there's still chance that Nintendo takes him into consideration. He might not be much of a hit in JP, but, having him in Smash considering the demand outside of it, like Ridley's despite Metroid not being popular there, could make it happen.

Want: 10%

I used to be a supporter, but the fandom made me take that back. I would only want him because friends of mine do and because I still adore him as a character.

Ezio

Chance: 1%

Considering Smash has been adding a lot of protagonists from M rated games lately...he's a possibility.

Want: 0%

I am personally more drawn to other protagonists of the franchise (Shay Cormac specifically). I think he has gotten way too much attention from Ubi and most of the fandom while the others get shoved to the side. He's in Soul Calibur V, Soul Hunters with Rayman, just to name a few examples. Besides, I think the only AC games that have been on Nintendo consoles are AC Black and AC III, not the Ezio trilogy.

Ps: I don't know if I did this right...

You did about right. You can also give nominations to any character or concept you want rated (5 per day), and attempt to predict the overall chance score for tomorrow's character (Sora and Geno in this case) to win extra nominations.

 

[Nemuresu]

Most awkward shape for an amiibo:
Chance: 0%-To me, a character being a spirit is a death sentence. I really do think all DLC characters will come from franchise with no presence in Smash at all, as we've seen with Joker, Hero and Banjo.
Want: 50%-I get he's a well-known mascot, so no complains if he's included. That said, I'm not too intrigued by what he can do.

Ezio:
Chance: 30%-I feel like people here are sleeping a lot on him. His franchise is successful, but not only that, it has presence on Nintendo consoles. Heck, Odyssey got released on Switch under the same circumstances RE7 (Cloud service). Sure, it's been millennia since we last saw him, but he's still the most famous of their protagonist. And again, while fan demand does have influence on this DLC, it's not a complete determiner to whether or not a character will join the roster, otherwise, Hero would not be in this game at all (he got in because of pedigree and historical influence).
Want: 70%-More interesting than Ray Man. Even if his moveset could clash with other characters, I still think it's more interesting to have a character that mixes hidden blades, swords and shotguns.

Predictions:
Geno: 1.79%
Sora: 0.88%
I can already see all the negativity from a distance.

 

[Icedragonadam]

You Be Soft Day

Rayman

Chance: 0.01%

-While he has a been a speculated character, I'm afraid he's out because he's one of the few 3rd party series that's in Smash without being playable, mainly being a spirit which pretty much disconfirms him with what we know of the Fighter's Pass.
-Even then he would have to contend with Ubisoft's current mascot series who is also being rated which IMO they would push more.

Want: 10%

-Never really not that fond of him.
-And I really don't want to imagine how his amiibo figure would even work.

Ezio

Chance: 10%

-He definitely fits the bill of characters you would never expect and drawing in new smash players and has some chance to be added. Also helps that AC has some popularity in Japan unlike other Western series.
-But to be honest Banjo's probably the only Western character for Smash right now. Even though Microsoft was willing to use Banjo, Sakurai wanted to personally meet with the people involved with the Banjo series which was more difficult then fellow Japanese Devs because of the language barrier.

Square Rejects Predictiosn:

Geno: 0.27%
Sora: 0.14%

Nominate Velvet Crowe x5

 

[-crump-]

Rayman
Chance: 3%
Already a spirit, little to no following in Japan, niche even in the West, out of the spotlight, no special ties to Nintendo... He seems as “out of the running” as he could possibly be.

Want: 40%
I can’t see him being incredibly interesting, but I’m not totally opposed. He at least brings some unique character design to Smash, and I liked Origins/Legends well enough.

Ezio
Abstain
I have 0% knowledge of Assassin’s Creed; no clue who Ezio is or which entry he’s from. Don’t feel confident attaching a rating to him.

 

[Jomosensual]

Rayman

Chance 0 - He's a 3rd party spirit. I really don't see how that would be a good thing for him at all. 1st party spirits are deconfirmations, so this is like super ultra deconfirmation. They already shelled out for him and decided to use him as a spirit. It's over

Want 20 - I wouldn't hate it I guess. Rayman isn't in my top 20 most wanted though so I'd prefer someone I'm more in to

Ezio
Chance 30 - Feel like he's a bit of a underrated pick since Assassins Creed is pretty big and he's one of the more well known characters from the series. Since relevance isn't an issue anymore we can throw out the fact that he hasn't been around in AC lately. Only big issue I have is that an Ubisoft character doesn't feel super likely for some reason. I do think if we're getting a Ubisoft rep then it'll be Ezio though, because Rayman is a spirit already and the only other possibilities would be the Rabbids I guess, and they aren't getting in the game

Want 60 - Ezio is tipping the scales towards yes for me. Getting a character from a franchise like AC would be cool and he'd be far more interesting than Rayman, who would do..... stuff?


Predictions
Geno 1.1
Sora .53


Noms:
Kratos x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Mermaid Man and Barnacle Boy's 2nd Greatest Arch-Nemesis... if you put his name backwards

Chance: 5%. He got the Spirit treatment. He's also got a problem with Japanese popularity, it seems, which would probably hold somebody back more than western popularity, and he's starting to dip in relevance for what that's worth. I'm not going to count on him, but never say never. I should also note that while Mii Theory kills his chances, Color Theory also does since we have a purple, but these are just theories so I won't hold them against him much at all. I see it, but I promise you he is not in the Battlefield ice.

Want: 55%. Rayman, given he isn't purely UbiArts (though those games are great, 1/2/3 and maybe even Raving Rabbids should have at least a tad bit of content) I think would be a very great addition to the game. Spots are limited, however, and I've got other priorities as of late.

His name reminds me of Espio.

Chance: 10%. He's not a spirit but aside from that, he's got a different problem from Rayman: he doesn't seem to have very much western support, let alone Japanese support, which is not good for him at all. With Rayman as intra-competition as well as the Rabbids, things are kind of hard for Ezio even if I think he stands out above both, as a Ubisoft character in general doesn't seem to be in the cards yet. A prime example of a Fighter's Pass 2 character (assuming there's third parties in it). Assassin's Creed being more popular in general tips things in his favor a tad, at least.

I'm going to abstain on want given I no longer feel qualified enough to give him a solid rating on that. My only experience with AC was a game without him and I couldn't get very far.

Geno and Sora are to Tails and Arle as Hero is to Joker. I think the fact that Geno has a Spirit and Piranha Plant happened will be held against him more than Disney for Sora, so respectively 0.29% and 0.95%.

So since More Bosses and Sunflower made it to the safe zone I dunno who or what to nominate. I don't want to nominate anything new for now since I don't think there's enough time for me (even if I do the x10) to get them in before they get purged. For now, I'll go back to alternating. More Bosses x 5.

 

[3DSNinja]

SSF2, BOIS!
Chance:5%: Yeah, not happening. Ezio exists and he is a spirit, and since IMO only 3 spirits have a chance of getting promoted (Waluigi, Geno, Bandana Dee) I don't see this one happening. RIP.
Want:90%: He would be pretty cool IMO. His SSF2 moveset and his Crusade one show that he can work, so hey, maybe.
Mr. Assassin Himself
Chance:30%: He has a good chance of happening. Sadly tho Wright is inevitable and so is either Crash or Dee. Definitely likely tho.
Want:100%: this would be awesome. We don't have any assassins in the game so he would be a nice addition. Plus I love Assassins Creed.
Nominations
Blaze x2, Specter Knight x3

 

[Neosonic97]

Wait, do you always mean 0% when you say oof? I've been counting them as abstentions.

Also I have doubts that Rayman deserves to be in pls explain

Oofs mean 0%, yes. It's me going 'oof' at the fact that their chances are basically kaput (RIP Rayman).

As for Rayman deserving it? It's the same reason Banjo deserves it- popular demand.

 

[OrpheusTelos]

I haven't participated in one of these yet. I enjoy reading these but I never got around to making my own posts, so I might as well start now.

Rayman, Fighter of the Nightman

Chance: 1%

I'm of the position that Spirits 100% deconfirm a character, so right now Rayman's chances are practically nonexistent. It doesn't help that he's kinda being neglected by Ubisoft again, so he doesn't have the luxury of being in the public consciousness that he did during Smash 4's initial hype cycle. I feel like a majority of people stopped caring after Smash 4 due to the Rayman Legends hype dying down and Ubisoft not doing anything to keep it going, so he was kind of dead on arrival for Ultimate. Maybe if Ubisoft actually commits to keeping the Rayman series alive in the next couple of years he might have a shot in the next game, but right now it's not looking good for our limbless boi

Want: 60%

I really like Rayman's games and I was an advid supporter of him during the Smash 4 days, but at this point the hype's kinda died down and I don't feel as strongly towards him as I used to. My tastes have expanded since 2014 and the scope of potential characters has greatly increased since Smash 4, so other characters ended up taking priority over Rayman in my personal most wanted list. I'd still be incredibly happy if he made it in, but right now I'd rather see the Smash team tackle something a bit more ambitious

Sonic but, like, an assassin

Chance: 20%

I can't believe I'm saying this, but right now Ezio is looking like the most likely Ubisoft rep just on the basis that Assassin's Creed isn't represented in the game in any capacity. Assassin's Creed is Ubisoft's most recognizable franchise and it seems like the kind of thing Ubisoft would want to push the most. However, Assassin's Creed is only really popular in the west and there isn't a huge crowd of western fans clamoring for his inclusion like Rayman has. And while he doesn't have much competition within his own company, he does have to compete with the likes of Doomguy and Dovahkiin as a western M-rated character, both of which have more support and, at least in the latter's case, more Japanese popularity

Want: 10%

As someone who dislikes Assassin's Creed, I can't say I'd be all too happy with Ezio's inclusion. I'm sure he could bring a lot of cool stuff to the table, but he'd have to be a really good character for me to get over my apathy towards the series

Geno Prediction: 1.5%
Sora Prediction: 1%
Nomination: Another western character x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Oofs mean 0%, yes. It's me going 'oof' at the fact that their chances are basically kaput (RIP Rayman).

As for Rayman deserving it? It's the same reason Banjo deserves it- popular demand.

Alright, I'll be sure to count those oofs as zeroes from now on.

Also Banjo has much more than popular demand going for him.

 

[MrUndy]

Don't mind if I join?

Rayman

Chance: 60-70%

"What!111 70?!177 B-b-b-but hE's AlReAdY a SpIrIt" I hear you saying.

Yes, he have been referenced as a Jpeg/Png picture, but that fact doesn't automatically kills his chances to be playable in my opinion.
Spirit deconfirmation never was confirmed by Nintendo and director of the game. The spirits are just in-game collectibles like trophies despite the difference between how player can collect them. I mean you can collect like hundreds of the same spirit, and there's two Pikachu spirits in the game (https://mobile.twitter.com/tenkai_gamer/status/1139993702347280384?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1139993702347280384&ref_url=https://smashboards.com/threads/rayman-revolution-spirit-of-dreams.446447/page-56 ) .
The devs can rename the Rayman spirit to "Rayman (Rayman Legends)" or delete him. If there's two Pikachus why won't we have two Raymans?

"But he's not a gaming icon!"

The same can be said about Bayonetta and Joker, but they are in, lol. Was Smash series always about gaming icons?

"How about Amiibo?"

Have anyone who doubt that Rayman will have Amiibo tried to search "Rayman amiibo"? Rayman fans have made a good examples of how Rayman can work.

"He already in Brawlhalla!1111"

This is the most dumb argument against Rayman. Characters such as Ryu, Megaman and Sonic appeared in different fighting games before, but they managed to join the roaster with no problems.

"He has no moveset potential!1111 He only does punches and kicks! That would be boring."

..........i... Rayman Origins and Legends are not the only games in the series, you idiots.
Here's a good examples of how Rayman's moveset would look like:
https://youtu.be/0jkT_pVK1a0
https://youtu.be/CzdZWyROGuI

"He's not that popular like AC and the Rabbids!"

*bear and bird laughing noises in
background*
Huge sale numbers and high popularity don't make a character automatically playable. Support of fans matters more.
His inclusion in Smash Ultimate would make his popularity higher, and Ubisoft understand that.

"He won't be in this Fighter Pass and there will be no more Fightter Passes!"

Are you living under a rock or something like that?
https://youtu.be/77YJMXjLLCk


In conclusion: you can still believing whatever you like to believe. Rayman still have chances to be in the game in my opinion.

Want: 100%

Rayman is my most wanted character for Smash Ultimate. He's a perfect fit for Ubisoft rep. I won't give up until the end.
I recommend you to try Rayman games( not only Rayman Origins/Legends ), and who know, maybe you will like him as much as fans do.
If Ezio or the Rabbids will be fist, that will be a huge slap to the faces for fans. Fans were asking for him for a quite long time, and we didn't get any new mainline game since 2013.

Ezio

chance: 15%(probably, or more or less, idk)

I can't say that much. From what I've seen demand for Ezio started since more people started talking more about Rayman, but most of these people who started talking about Ezio hate Rayman or just emm... hate Rayman, and hate Rayman for no reason, and started coming up with stupid reasons why Rayman won't be in the game, and hate Rayman, think his more popular, and you get the picture. Yes, hes popular and iconic, but demand for him isn't that huge
I'm not trying to say that Ezio is a terrible pick or something like that, but the situation with Banjo-Kazooie and Steve already proving that fan demand matters more than popularity.

Want: 0%
I've never played any AC games, but would love to try the 3th game.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Don't mind if I join?

Rayman

Chance: 60-70%

"What!111 70?!177 B-b-b-but hE's AlReAdY a SpIrIt" I hear you saying.

Yes, he have been referenced as a Jpeg/Png picture, but that fact doesn't automatically kills his chances to be playable in my opinion.
Spirit deconfirmation never was confirmed by Nintendo and director of the game. The spirits are just in-game collectibles like trophies despite the difference between how player can collect them. I mean you can collect like hundreds of the same spirit, and there's two Pikachu spirits in the game (https://mobile.twitter.com/tenkai_gamer/status/1139993702347280384?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1139993702347280384&ref_url=https://smashboards.com/threads/rayman-revolution-spirit-of-dreams.446447/page-56 ) .
The devs can rename the Rayman spirit to "Rayman (Rayman Legends)" or delete him. If there's two Pikachus why won't we have two Raymans?

"But he's not a gaming icon!"

The same can be said about Bayonetta and Joker, but they are in, lol. Was Smash series always about gaming icons?

"How about Amiibo?"

Have anyone who doubt that Rayman will have Amiibo tried to search "Rayman amiibo"? Rayman fan have made a good examples of how Rayman can work.

"He already in Brawlhalla!1111"

This is the most dumb argument against Rayman. Characters such as Ryu, Megaman and Sonic appeared in different fighting games before, but they managed to join the roaster with no problems.

"He has no moveset potential!1111 He only does punches and kicks! That would be boring."

..........i... Rayman Origins and Legends are not the only games in the series, you idiots.
Here's a good examples of how Rayman's moveset would look like:
https://youtu.be/0jkT_pVK1a0
https://youtu.be/CzdZWyROGuI

"He's not that popular like AC and the Rabbids!"

*bear and bird laughing noises in
background*
Huge sale numbers and high popularity don't make a character automatically playable. Support of fans matters more.
His inclusion in Smash Ultimate would make his popularity higher, and Ubisoft understand that.

"He won't be in this Fighter Pass and there will be no more Fightter Passes!"

Are you living under a rock or something like that?
https://youtu.be/77YJMXjLLCk


In conclusion: you can still believing whatever you like to believe. Rayman still have chances to be in the game in my opinion.

Want: 100%

Rayman is my most wanted character for Smash Ultimate. He's a perfect fit for Ubisoft rep. I won't give up until the end.
I recommend you to try Rayman game( not only Rayman Origins/Legends ), and who know, maybe you like him as much as fans do.
If Ezio or the Rabbids will be fist, that will be a huge slap the the faces of fans. Fans were asking for him for a quite long time, and we didn't get any new mainline game since 2013.

Ezio

chance: 15%(probably, or more or less, idk)

I can't say that much. From what I've seen demand for Ezio started since more people started talking more about Rayman, but most of these people who started talking about Ezio hate Rayman or just emm... hate Rayman, and hate Rayman for no reason, and started coming up with stupid reasons why Rayman won't be in the game, and hate Rayman, think his more popular, and you get the picture. Yes, hes popular and iconic, but demand for him isn't that huge
I'm not trying to say that Ezio is a terrible pick or something like that, but the situation with Banjo-Kazooie and Steve already proving that fan demand matters more than popularity.

Want: 0%
I've never played any AC games, but would love to try the 3th game.

It is always great to see a new face! Couple of things. (Keep in Mind I want Rayman)

1. I discourage ranges of scores in the game. I prefer hard numbers for score calcs.

2. I feel that while he certainly is demanded in the West, the character does not have much of a legacy in Japan. While we have gotten characters with huge amounts of support over here, I feel that not only do those examples dwarf Rayman's demand (Smash 4 Little Mac, K Rool, Banjo, and Ridley were far more popular than Rayman), but they all also had better exposure in the East. Rayman struggles to get a foothold in Japan. Which hurts his chances a bit.

3. While Spirits have never explicitly been said to deconfirm, the circumstantial evidence we have ain't good for it. Plant not having a spirit is the biggest tell. If the characters were planned for Wave 1, why would they have their spirits in? Granted if we get a Wave 2 that goes out the window, but that is a big if.

4. As for that datamine details, I know people talk about the dummy slots in the code (like 30 characters?). Complex costumes like Joker's student uniform, the hero alts, or like Cloud AC are counted weirdly for that. Granted I am not familiar as much with WoL dummy slots, but it is something. Good reasoning on that though.

5. You are permitted to nominate a character to be rated in the future as well, so if you see someone on the noms list you want to support or have a cool concept, nominate away.

I hope you enjoy participating in this thread! Tomorrow Geno and Sora are being rated, and given your avatar I think you might be interested in that.

 

[MrUndy]

It is always great to see a new face! Couple of things. (Keep in Mind I want Rayman)

1. I discourage ranges of scores in the game. I prefer hard numbers for score calcs.

2. I feel that while he certainly is demanded in the West, the character does not have much of a legacy in Japan. While we have gotten characters with huge amounts of support over here, I feel that not only do those examples dwarf Rayman's demand (Smash 4 Little Mac, K Rool, Banjo, and Ridley were far more popular than Rayman), but they all also had better exposure in the East. Rayman struggles to get a foothold in Japan. Which hurts his chances a bit.

3. While Spirits have never explicitly been said to deconfirm, the circumstantial evidence we have ain't good for it. Plant not having a spirit is the biggest tell. If the characters were planned for Wave 1, why would they have their spirits in? Granted if we get a Wave 2 that goes out the window, but that is a big if.

4. As for that datamine details, I know people talk about the dummy slots in the code (like 30 characters?). Complex costumes like Joker's student uniform, the hero alts, or like Cloud AC are counted weirdly for that. Granted I am not familiar as much with WoL dummy slots, but it is something. Good reasoning on that though.

5. You are permitted to nominate a character to be rated in the future as well, so if you see someone on the noms list you want to support or have a cool concept, nominate away.

I hope you enjoy participating in this thread! Tomorrow Geno and Sora are being rated, and given your avatar I think you might be interested in that.

Many thanks! I'll keep in mind all of that.
Even if Rayman isn't that likely as I want, I hope he'll playable anytime soon, and who knows maybe he will be.
As Shia LaBeouf said "Nothing is impossible".

Tomorrow I'll definitely rate Geno and Sora.

 

[GoodGrief741]

"But he's not a gaming icon!"

The same can be said about Bayonetta and Joker, but they are in, lol.

I'd say Joker is definitely iconic tho.