Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[GoodGrief741]

Just realized that not a lot of people mentioned the Prince of Persia as a very real possibility yesterday. Something to consider.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Rayman/Ezio pre-Geno/Sora

Heavy (Team Fortress) x176
Crono x150
Kyle Hyde x145
Kamek x139
Cadence (Crypt of the Necrodancer) x125
Ellie (The Last of Us) x120
Saber (Fate) x117

150 - 101

Rundas x115
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105
Concept: Rockstar Games rep x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
Ninten x95
Terry Bogard x95
Gene (God Hand) x95
Frogger x85
Glover x85
Velvet Crowe x85
Specter Knight x83
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
9-Volt x80
Adeleine (Kirby) x78
[Rerate] Micaiah x75
Jin Kazama x70
X (Mega Man) x68
Blaze the Cat x67
Captain Rainbow x62
Concept: More Bosses x60
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x55
Papyrus x51
Decidueye x51

50 - 25

Brian (Quest 64) x47
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x40
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x45
Gooey (Kirby) x37
Concept: DLC challenges x35
Earthworm Jim x33
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x33
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Qbby x30
Concept: Another western character x30
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x28
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25
Amaterasu x25
Kyo Kusanagi x25

Under 25

Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x22
Reporter & Wrestler x20
Tora and Poppi x20
Johnny Silverhand x20
Kratos x20
Lara Croft x20
Proto Man x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
King Boo x16
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Black Shadow x13
Concept: Another joke character x13
Gex x12
Mike Jones x11
Marx (Kirby) x11
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x10
Concept: Grookey's final evolution x10
Concept: Medabots rep x10
Sir Arthur (Ghosts 'n Goblins) x10
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x10
Magolor x9
Toon Zelda x8
Blacephalon x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
Rash x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Concept: League of Legends rep x5
Serious Sam x5
Lizalfos x4
Urbosa x3
Concept: No More DLC x3
Boss: Sans x2
Sub-Zero x2
Concept: Street Fighter Mii costumes x2
Rad Spencer x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
Pappy Van Poodle x1
Dr. Eggman x1
Toon Zelda & Tetra x1
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x1

Cadence dances into the top seven, leaving Rundas in the dust and Saber and Ellie spinning. She ends the day in fifth place.

Amaterasu and Kyo Kusanagi reach 25 noms.

Today's new concept, debuting at 105 noms, is Rockstar Games rep.

 

[Sari]

Some music for today's characters:

Geno

Spoiler

Sora

Spoiler

----------

Gimme frog coins! Gimme Mario! Gimme frog coins! Gimme Mallow! Gimme see ya! Gimme Geno! Gimme cookies!

Chance: 3%
Like I said the other day, I’m convinced that we aren’t getting any spirits as playable characters for this wave. DQ Hero being another Square Enix rep does not help Geno at all as I also don't see us getting another SE rep for this season. I think they’ll just release the SSB4 Geno mii costume along with DQ Hero’s release and call it a day.

Want: 5%
Sorry but I just don't care about Geno at all. I beat Super Mario RPG many years back and I honestly never really got behind the hype around him. There are also a ton of other Mario characters I'd want to see make it into Smash first. Only reason this isn’t a 0% is because he has a giant fanbase and I think it'd be nice to see them get what they want after so many years of wanting him.

-----

Abstaining completely on Sora. I don't have any experience with his big franchise and I don't know anything about all the Disney stuff surrounding his chances.

----------

Ryu Hayabusa chance prediction: 17.31% (still has a lot going for him though the main leak he was in is officially dead)
Chosen Undead chance prediction: 10% (I know nothing about this character or his chances)

----------

Nominations:
Concept: Rockstar Games rep x5

 

[Calamitas]

Geno

Spoiler: Gonna put this in spoilers because this is not going to be nice

Chance: 0%
He's a Spirit, prominently featured in WoL and we are already getting Hero from Square Enix. And that's not all - he'd easily be the most obscure character on the entire roster, his game was never released in Europe until VC became a thing, he's not even the protagonist of his own game. . .the fact that he got a Mii costume in 4 and a Spirit in Ultimate is already plenty. I'm not going to say that it's impossible for him to make it into any Smash game, ever, but for Ultimate's DLC, he's definitely out.

Want: 0%
Now here's one that I'll never understand the demand for. And I'll be frank, if Geno were to become DLC - whether as part of the Fighter's Pass or otherwise - I'd never get him. People like accusing characters like, say, Waluigi of being a meme pick, but to me, Geno feels like the biggest meme pick. What I mean is that to me it seems like all his demand really stems from a single Sakurai interview back in the Brawl days. There's nothing about him that could ever put him above 0% for me.

Sora
Chance: 0%
He's in the same boat as any other Square Enix character, now that Hero's coming. I just seriously don't think that we're going to get another Square Enix character. And with Sora in particular, I think that the entire thing with Disney the rights to him is making things extremely difficult. I get that some Disney representatives (or someone like that) have given their endorsment or said that it's up to SE, but I think that things are still more difficult than just that.
Want: 40%
I've never played a single KH game in my life, but I've consumed enough Let's Plays, reviews and other videos on the series to be familiar enough with it. So I can see that Sora would be quite fun.

Nominating Amaterasu x5

 

[Nquoid]

Geno

Chance 5%
Want 75%

Gotta go with the spirits deconfirm. I don't think any Nintendo character is a 0% but he's also very much unlikely to be in the DLC, purely because of Hero and because even though his rights are definitely tied up with Square, he'd still be a first party character in terms of franchise. (love those grey areas)

I really want Geno fans to have their day, I've been slowly playing through Super Mario RPG since I got the SNES Classic (Paper Mario is the Mario RPG series after my heart) but I also think I would be just as happy with any number of Mario RPG reps. Give me Geno, or Paper Mario, or Fawful. All would scratch a fun niche that hasn't been fully exploited in Smash whilst still being very much tied to the Mario franchise. But it won't happen for the same reason Vaati would not be the next Zelda rep. Smash very much pulls from the main franchise rather than the side games. I am completely shocked that we don't have a Mario Kart move for any of the characters in the game.

So yeah would love to see Geno fans get him, and I want a Mario RPG rep regardless so our goals are aligned!

Sora
Chance 5%
Want 20%

We already have Hero in the fighters pass. And much like Geno, it takes more than one company to say yes for him to be in the game. And one of those companies is Disney (not saying they're not likely to play ball, but Disney are very much hands off when it comes to games now after being burned for so many years that they just off load everything). And man, Sora without the Disney fan service? That would feel very weird.

Geno, Crono, Terra, All these characters deserve to be in Smash before we get to Sora. I'm not saying that Sora isn't a good character. But when we're talking Square Enix and they're long history with Nintendo, Super Mario RPG, Chrono Trigger and the 8/16 Bit Final Fantasy all take precedence for me. Plus we still haven't seen a mainline Kingdom Hearts game on the Switch. How hard would it be to port over the HD remixes?! (*insert comment about Persona here*)

 

[Ornl]

Geno
Chance: 0% - Want: abstain
He's a Spirit. There are already :
- Daisy as new Mario rep,
- Piranha Plant as new Mario rep in DLC,
- Hero as new Squenix JRPG rep in DLC,
- Banjo as a new ballot choice from extinct series (Super Mario RPG).

Sora
Chance: 0% - Want: abstain
He's belongs to Disney.
I think the choice of Hero partly explains the absence of Isaac/Lloyd/Sora.
I think Shulk (whose authors are ex-Squenix) / Cloud / Hero defeated Sora.

Both
A new Squenix repwould be an unexpected surprise for the last two DLC. But I don't think it would still be a JRPG rep. Geno accompanies the real cultural icon Mario. Sora accompanies the real cultural icon Mickey. Hero accompanies the real Japanese cultural icon Slime. Squenix owns other characters that are directly true cultural icons: Bub & Bob, Space Invaders and Lara Croft.

Nominations : Lara Croft x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Ghee-no
Chance: 0%
Even before E3, the stars would've have to align for him to still have a shot. He's a third-party spirit, he'd be very obscure as a paid DLC character, Sakurai, the biggest thing he had going forward for him, didn't pick the DLC and we already have Plant as our DLC Mario rep. And now that the rumoured Square character didn't end up being him, his chances are as good as dead on the water. We're gonna have his Mii costume again when the Hero rolls around and then that will be it for him.

Want: 0%
It's no secret I never saw the hype for him. You know the drill. Obscure, not first-party, not the main character of the game he stars in, hasn't had a major role in more than two decades. Now I will play SMRPG one day but even then I don't think I'll hop on the Geno train. He's still just a party member, one whose influence seems to be grossly overestimated. There are many characters I want over him, including the other three highly supported Mario characters not yet in Smash. (Captain Toad, Waluigi, Paper)

Smash is light
Chance: 1%
He at the very least is the protag of a fairly popular franchise and seems like a character Square actually gives a damn about but just like Geno, he suffers from the Hero's inclusion. Maybe he'd be on the table for a second pass but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Wamt: 5%
I understand the support but still, not much of a fan of most third-parties and we literally just got another Square rep. Kingdom Hearts also doesn't seem like a series I'd want to dive into at the moment.

Ryu Hayabusa: 55.24%
Chosen Undead: 27.31%
Gene x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Geno:

Chance: 3% - Geno is not going to be part of the Fighter Pass, not only have we already gotten a Square rep, but he's a Spirit on top of that. His only miniscule chance comes from the possibility of further DLC, something I find very unlikely, but if it does happen he'll have a solid chance of being part of that due to his big and consistent support over the course of this game's speculation.

Want: 65% - I'm towards the end of my first playthrough of SMRPG, and you know what? I know he's not as involved as some expect, but I do see why people like him so much, he's a character who's appeal lies in his unique fighting style and design, and not necessarily in his characterization. That does not mean I'm a Geno supporter now mind you, I think he'd be cool, but I don't personally care that much for his inclusion, the best part of him getting in would still be how many people it'd make happy.

Sora:

Chance: 1% - Again, we already have our Square rep, and on top of that Sora has to wrestle with the big bad Disney overlords. Never say never and all that, but I don't see it happening, even if we get additional DLC on top of the Fighter Pass.

Want: 0% - Kingdom Hearts is just one of things things I'll never get, I love Disney, but it just doesn't mesh well with the Square RPG part at all, every time I see a trailer for KH at an event I keep wondering what it is that I'm not seeing. I dislike Sora's design as well, something about the way the faces look on the KH characters really puts me off, especially the mouth area. There are just a lot of characters I'd much rather see than him.

 

[Neosonic97]

Geno

Chance: OOF
Yeah... To put it bluntly, Geno's screwed. Not only is he already a spirit, but we already have a Square Enix rep in the form of the Hero. There's uh, really not anything else that needs saying.

Want: Abstain.
I don't really have any strong feelings towards Geno. Might be because I've never played Super Mario RPG (sue me), but that's just how it rolls.

Sora

Chance: also OOF
I don't see it happening. Even disregarding the whole debacle with Disney, Sora is ALSO a Square Enix rep. We already have The Hero. That alone is pretty much enough to demolish Sora's chances.

Want: Abstain.
Abstaining here for the same reasons as Geno. Not really played any Kingdom Hearts games aside from Chain of Memories.

Noms: Reimu rerate x5.

 

[HyruleHero]

Well its my first time posting on this board but got to support my boy Sora.

Geno

5% Chance
Geno has been a highly requested character for a long while in the smash community, Sakurai has heard these demands and made a Mii Costume. With the return of some old Mii costumes in the first DLC pack I believe Geno is likely to reappear with DQ Hero as a costume. Between the spirit and Geno being a Mii costume I think Geno is hard locked out of being a character, however there is always a chance so I didn't rate the character at 0%.


Want (Abstained)
I have no experience with Geno as a character as I've never played Mario RPG. I don't believe a character that appears in a side game only once particularly deserves a spot in smash filled with prominent characters such as Snake, DQ Hero and Ryu but thats just my opinion.

Sora

10% Chance
With DQ Hero in smash I find it unlikely for Sora to appear. Although Sora is owned completely by Disney and wouldn't appear as a Square Rep he would probably play similarly to Hero if he made it in smash thus removing uniqueness from the character. Disney has said that if Sora got support they would be happy with Sora being in smash so they aren't stopping him. Much like other companies who have characters they want in smash Disney is no exception. I've put Sora's chance above Geno just because if another character would be selected with money it wouldn't be Geno so Sora has a greater chance.


100% Want
Kingdom Hearts is one of my favourite franchises outside of Nintendo, I've put many hours into the game and it draws me back to play because of the solid combat. At this point in the DLC run their isn't many characters that I would jump out of my seat for like Banjo. Sora and Agumon would be the only 2 characters that would do that.

 

[Door Key Pig]

Geno

Chance 5%
Want 75%

Gotta go with the spirits deconfirm. I don't think any Nintendo character is a 0% but he's also very much unlikely to be in the DLC, purely because of Hero and because even though his rights are definitely tied up with Square, he'd still be a first party character in terms of franchise. (love those grey areas)

I really want Geno fans to have their day, I've been slowly playing through Super Mario RPG since I got the SNES Classic (Paper Mario is the Mario RPG series after my heart) but I also think I would be just as happy with any number of Mario RPG reps. Give me Geno, or Paper Mario, or Fawful. All would scratch a fun niche that hasn't been fully exploited in Smash whilst still being very much tied to the Mario franchise. But it won't happen for the same reason Vaati would not be the next Zelda rep. Smash very much pulls from the main franchise rather than the side games. I am completely shocked that we don't have a Mario Kart move for any of the characters in the game.

So yeah would love to see Geno fans get him, and I want a Mario RPG rep regardless so our goals are aligned!

Sora
Chance 5%
Want 20%

We already have Hero in the fighters pass. And much like Geno, it takes more than one company to say yes for him to be in the game. And one of those companies is Disney (not saying they're not likely to play ball, but Disney are very much hands off when it comes to games now after being burned for so many years that they just off load everything). And man, Sora without the Disney fan service? That would feel very weird.

Geno, Crono, Terra, All these characters deserve to be in Smash before we get to Sora. I'm not saying that Sora isn't a good character. But when we're talking Square Enix and they're long history with Nintendo, Super Mario RPG, Chrono Trigger and the 8/16 Bit Final Fantasy all take precedence for me. Plus we still haven't seen a mainline Kingdom Hearts game on the Switch. How hard would it be to port over the HD remixes?! (*insert comment about Persona here*)

Is Bowser Jr's side special kinda reminiscent of the clown car thing in Mario Kart? And Peach/Daisy has a golf club and racket to attack with

 

[BowserKing]

Geno

Chance: 5%

Already a spirit and we already got a Square Enix Rep that is in the fighter's pass. His popularity could be the life saving force, but it's unknown for now.

Want: 92% Not my most wanted Mario character (that goes to Fawful), but he would be fun to play. And since several fighters that where once thought impossible, became possible, Geno could have another chance next time.

Sora

Chance: ???. While Popular enough to make it in smash, there is a bump in the road. Sora is partly owned by Disney, and that is what is going to be the most costly part.

Want: 50 to 55%. He would be a fun character to play, but just like Cloud, there would not be much representation, but this being because Disney owns much of the characters Sora encounters. But where not going to let that distract us from maining him.

Noms: 2 for Concept: Lord Fredrick as a King K.Rool Echo and 3 for Marx

 

[Klimax]

You know the first one isn't even the most critically acclaimed of the titles?

It's still the only good game of the franchise. The 2 is the game that made the franchise so generic.


Geno:
Chances: 0% He's not getting in, he's going to be a MII Costume at best. I don't like Sakurai but truth is that he already did a lot for Geno, he made him a MII Costume and this time, he made him one of the best spirits. We have our Square Enix rep and as we see, they went with big third party characters, not obscure fan favorite picks. He's not getting in Ultimate, people should prepare the Smash 6 campaign (or give up about his inclusion).

Want: 80% I've been wanting him since 2008, I like his design and I think he's cool. Still, I completely understand the people who doesn't want him, truth needs to be told, he's not important and his character is less interesting than Mallow for example. His inclusion would make me really happy but I don't really care if he's not getting in. I made peace with the fact that he will never be a playable character.


Sora:
Chances: 0% He's a Disney character and we already have a Square Enix rep.

Want: 0% I don't get Kingdom Hearts and I'm done with generic anime swordsman without any personnality.

 

[-crump-]

Geno
Chance: 4%
They already got the rights to use him... as a spirit. Geno is also just a really, really obscure character to add as DLC; he’s someone only the hardest of hardcore fans will be over the moon for, which isn’t the best pick when you are trying to convince as many people as possible to shell out for specific character. Plus, the DQ boys are already in, and it’d be odd if SE got two characters in the same season pass.

If there was a Fighter Pass 2 I could see his chances increasing somewhat, but I don’t think there will be so, eh. Maybe the Mii Costume will come back.

Want: 60%
I don’t have any nostalgia for SMRPG or Geno himself, so for me personally he’s not a huge deal. However, the K. Rool supporter in me can’t help but cheer for characters carried entirely by fan support, so if Geno made it in, I’d be happy for his supporters, and it would feel like a win for obscure characters everywhere. Plus, I like his design and finally seeing an updated, official render would be sweet.

Sora
Chance: 2%
Hero took the wind out of his sails, and in my eyes, there was never much wind to begin with. Sora is ultimately a Disney character, and regardless of what somebody in the company said, I doubt they’d play nice. Now that SE has their DLC locked down, I think he’s even less possible... if SE isn’t pushing for it I doubt Nintendo would.

Want: 10%
Sorry, I’m really not a fan of Sora. I dislike his design (his weapon in particular), and I find his voice/personality grating, I don’t think he’d bring anything particularly interesting to Smash, either.

 

[JimboJaggi]

♪!?

Chance: like 5% probably less

He's a spirit and there's already a square character as dlc as literally everyone has already said and he's already a weird choice that relies so heavily on fan demand. He's always been in a weird position and now is one of the weirdest. I feel like he'll get in someday in some game just to make fans happy, but it certainly doesn't look like it'll be this fight pass.

Want: 90% or something

I've got a lot of personal history with Mario RPG, but the geno stuff in particulate is something that takes me back to that time when Brawl was still new and the internet was going through a growing phase. Back when let's plays were first starting out and talking about smash was getting larger and larger. It's such a weird series of really specific circumstances that make him a wanted pick, and probably more than anything I think it'd be cool if something so entirely driven by fans can make something like this happen. I guess its less about the character itself and more everything surrounding him that makes him interesting, despite the fact that I really like him as a character and the game itself. It's funny how there's so much to be said about a character like him that could have just as easily be forgotten, yet here we are.


Sora:

Chance: same as geno, really low

Similar as before, there's already a Square rep in the dlc, but add the fact that Disney is weeeeird about stuff. While if they really wanted to I'm sure they could get it done, but it doesn't look like its a priority. Beyond the fighter pass I suppose we'll see.

Want:... not really at all

I completely understand that people love his games and for a lot of people its the series they grew up with and hold near and dear to their heart (hehe). But for me personally I guess I just can't get over how dumb some of it is. Usually I can get over silly situations, but something about Kingdom Hearts rubs me the wrong way. Probably a lot of it is the fact that I really don't like Nomura at least in the rolls he's given now. I won't go into that, but most everything I don't like about how he does things is exemplified in KH. Lastly I do feel that getting Disney involved is a bad idea, while I'm sure they'd work something out, it'd be getting dangerously close to non video game characters getting in and that's something I'm not a fan of.

 

[AugustusB]

*walks in...looks at own avatar...* This will be interesting

GENO:
CHANCE - 46%
Sakurai has been breaking fan rules left and right and who's to say that one company cannot have more than one fighter on the pass? Or that a Spirit deconfirms a potential fighter? However, I feel we will see him as bonus DLC down the line

WANT - 100%
I only played the game recently last year, but I can tell why this character matters. A love letter from Nintendo AND Square was gifted to us before Square left. Also,with all these fan requests getting in...it seems possible ..no matter how slim the chances are.

SORA:
CHANCES- 1%
Love me some Kingdom Hearts, but no way Nintendo is going through Disney. Now my understanding states the possibility of one company getting multiple fighters, but Sora is a mix bag of loops to jump through.

WANT - 38%
It would be neat and would love the character being in. However, Disney may not want to play ball with this. Or wants to milk Nintendo dry for the money.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Geno:
Chance: 30%
Having Hero already be in the game lowers his chances. While we haven't seen his Mii Costume, it's bound to show up alongside Hero just like how we got all the Sega costumes like Tails and Knuckles alongside Joker.

Want: 90%
Was one of my earliest Smash Bros requests alongside Megaman (It seems I had quite the affinity for blue characters at the time), all the way back in the Brawl days when Mario was the series I was most familiar with and I had just started playing the Mario RPGs (Starting with Paper Mario and working my way down). While my fanboyism for him has waned over the years, due to more relevant characters taking his place at the top of my most requested, I still wouldn't mind seeing him, if only to fill that last "big-request" spot alongside Banjo.

Sora:
Chance: 35%
Putting him slightly above Geno due to representing a new series. While he still is also hampered down by the Hero, he's not completely impossible and would fit great in Smash compared to some other requests.

Want: 100%
Man, people in this thread really seem to hate KH for some reason. I get putting his chances at low, but KH is one of my favorite RPGs and would be the last major JRPG series alongside Tales to be represented. Of course I'd like him.

Spoiler

 

[SSGuy]

I don't have much to provide so I will keep it brief.

Geno
Want: 100%
Chance: 20%

Idk. Geno has been my most wanted literally since Brawl speculation days. I felt so optimistic after the August direct but I dont understand why it didn't work out. He has been the only character I have wanted and I feel like I have been watching everyone else get what they want for years while I have been teased and mocked by Sakurai/Square Enix. I believe I can finally walk from Smash Bros completely fulfilled if I could just get Geno in Smash Bros.

Sora:
Want: 0%
Chance: 0%

On the opposite side, Sora is my least wanted of all time. Disney getting their nasty hands into Smash Bros and becoming an influencer just stinks to hell. Disney is a modern day Nazi regime of the entertainment industry and it is sick how they groom others to only accept their lazy cash grabs as creative. I could explain more but I dont want to go off topic. It doesn't help that Sora fans have been the nastiest group to Geno fans so it helped cultivate my hatred toward him and his supporters. I have had nothing but bad experiences with the Sora's fanbase and it basically made me despise this group as a result.

The bottom line is, Geno vs Sora represents a true character backed by fan devotion and a dedicated community vs a character backed by a self Disney insert which is backed by a literal evil regime with nasty fans. You can suck on Disney's teet all you want just don't go around trying to diss Geno for the sake of him being well received in the Smash community

(My opinions do not reflect Geno's community as a whole. This is just me speaking. Majority of our community is pretty open and less stubborn than I am so please do not use this to throw out guy under the bus. I just hate Sora and his fanbase.)

Thanks

Edit: I nominate Heavy Weapons Guy next x5

 

[MrUndy]

Man, why do all my character picks are so unlikely or in "deconfirmed" status in opinion of most people of Smash community?

Geno the Star Spirit (also known as "Crazy Characters")

chances: 20-30%

Seeing SE choosing a character that people asked is showing that they give a damn about what do people think and want, and maybe we'll see Geno in a future. If Geno won't be referenced as a Mii costume that will mean that his owners are interested in him as a new potential fighter in a future. Sakurai himself want to make Geno a fighter. Geno is not just a doll, he's a Star Spirit, it's just a matter of time for him to find a new physical body to possess.
But what if all those rules with spirits and costumes won't matter in this time? Or they never was? How many times Sakurai need to show that nothing is impossible? How many times he broke the rules?
Maybe Geno won't be in this Fighter Pass, but he have more chances farther DLC packs.

Want: 95%
Geno is my second most wanted character after Rayman, and Super Mario RPG is my second favorite RPG game after Undertale. He's not a meme as people like to think for some reasons. His game is so great and memorable, and worth trying.

"The anime boi in cartoony world and it's not 100% odd to see him along with Mickey and Goofy"

Chances: 10-15% (or maybe more or less)

https://youtu.be/oNLcrqw6OPA
Producer don't have any plans for Sora in Smash and on top of that I feel like Sakurai won't work with Disney.
But I'm not saying it's impossible for him to join the roaster and he fit the category of all Fighter Pass characters.

Want: 0%
Never experienced KH games, but would like to try.

Prediction: Both 5.5%

noms:
edit:
Heavy (TF2) x2
Gordon Freeman (Half-Life franchise) x2
Sans the Skeleton x1 (IM DEAD SERIOUS)

 

[RealPokeFan11]

noms:
Heavy(TF2) x15
Gordon Freeman (Half-Life franchise) x15
Sans the Skeleton x15 (IM DEAD SERIOUS)
Waluigi x5 (Please, don't make fun of me for choosing him)
Teddie(SMT - Persona 4) x5

You can only use 5 nominations a day unless you earn more through correct prediction scores. Additionally, nominations for characters that have been disconfirmed via Assist Trophies and Pokeball summons will not be counted.

 

[SKX31]

Gen-*Gets also blasted by Galeem. Really, a theoretical "SMRPG 2: Electric Boogie Knights (Featuring Rayman from the Rayman series)*" should have Galeem as the final boss just so that Geno and Rayman can have their revenge. Because Galeem's just being disrespectful at this point.*

Chance: 3 %

Aside from what others have said - I do agree that he has a much bigger shot with a future base roster. I do believe also that his chances could rise if he sees a return in a Mario spinoff title, because that way both Ninty and S-E can gauge how far Geno's popularity actually extends.

There are still some things to be said about him. His character idea is IMHO decently solid if a bit Pinnochio-esque, so it's actually kinda easy to (re)introduce him to unfamiliar eyes. AFAIK (which isn't much, granted) he just needs something to flesh him out. Not that I would usually count on Ninty on this - IIRC they haven't had most of their Paper Mario / Mario & Luigi side characters return for another game (the only one out of the top of my head is Fawful). I do wonder how Geno fans would react if a theoretical SMRPG 2 took the same approaches as FF 15 and 7 Remake gameplay wise.

Want: 30 %

Never played SMRPG (never released here in Europe - until the VC - and I was 4 at the time), Of course, I'd be happy for others though, and I don't see Geno as a wasted slot as is. Okay with him really.

Mr. "Okay I believe you!"* (Sora)

Chance: 10 %

Sora's always been another weird case really. Not just because of "Straddling the line between 3rd and 4th party because of DARKNE- I mean, Disney", but also from a gameplay standpoint he's been pretty much "Floaty Combos Everywhere!" since Kingdom Hearts 2. It could complicate his possible transition into Smash - even with Bayo already in and functioning as a combo-heavy character.

That said, there's a whole plethora of moves to pull from, and he can survive being Disney-less. Kingdom Hearts was born as a really wonky series - I wasn't aware of the series until KH2, but AFAIK people were really uncertain if Disney and FF could even mix. Still, that reduces his Spirits to his closest friends and even closer enemies - characters that would look like "Too much Anime!" to those unfamiliar with / not interested in the series. Then again, I do feel that having Mickey / Donald / Goofy as AT or background elements would be really difficult to sell to people at best, even if they're kept as just NPCs. Keywords, at best.

I do believe that Sora's close enough to Disney that it would feel a bit empty without those elements - won't be end-of-the-world, but still. The alternative stirs a pot I don't think Sakurai (and those who agree with him) don't want shaken nor stirred. For understandable reasons.

If he's getting in he's most likely getting into a future DLC wave (Ultimate or future Smash game).

Want: 55 %

He places fairly high for me, partly because of the absolute cheese-fest-written-seriously setting and story** starring Christopher Lee, Mark Hamill, Leonard Nimoy and... Billy Zane? The Titanic movie's bad guy? Yelling about DARKNESS? Anyway, partly because Sora's generally really fun to play and flexible - he can be built in tons of ways, even if it's tricky. And partly because I personally find the character enjoyable still.

Noms: Jin Kazama x5

*(I regret nothing! )
**(That's a whole issue in itself. My main gripe with it is that we're expected to take the concepts of "Light" and "Darkness" for something granted and super-meaningful without delving into why they're important. But in the end, I consider the story So-Bad/Weird-it's-kinda-hilarious.)

 

[TheCJBrine]

Starman:

Chance: 15% - I was against the idea of Spirits disconfirming characters before, but now I'm not so sure. We may also get his mii costume again and, while that doesn't mean he's disconfirmed, it does seem to hurt his chances. Sakurai has said once that he thinks he'd be perfect for Smash, showing that he likes him, and Nintendo seems to have acknowledged SMRPG a bit (not just with the Spirits in Smash, but also having SMRPG Piranha Plant species mentioned in Palutena's Guidance for Plant, tweeting its anniversary last year, putting it on the SNES Classic, and including it in a quiz they sponsored in some "HQ" app during the VGAs - with Geno's name being given after the question was answered), so he does seem to have a little bit going for him.

Square seems complicated, though. They were willing to give Nintendo the rights for a mii costume of Geno along with a Chocobo, rights to "Beware the Forest's Mushrooms"'s use in the mii costume reveal for Geno, and of course Geno and Mallow have Spirits in Ultimate, but they still seem complicated to work with. Did Sakurai ever actually ask for Geno as a playable character, however, or no? I guess we won't know. I'll just give a 15% chance.

Want: 100% - I really like Geno. I only finished SMRPG last month after a long break, but I really liked it, and I find Geno to be a cool and interesting character. Even before I played the game, I was already sold by his abilities and...well, really even just his design alone. That's how cool I thought he was, and I still have the same opinion. I'd be very happy with his inclusion.

Abstain on Sora.

Nominations:

Ninten x5

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Want: 0% I don't get Kingdom Hearts and I'm done with generic anime swordsman without any personnality.

If you're seriously going to try to claim Sora, of all characters, has no personality, it probably means you should have abstained, because its clear you know absolutely nothing about the character.

SMH he has more personality than at the absolute WORST half the roster, if he got in he'd probably be in the Top 10 of most developed characters in the game.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Geno

Chance: 0%
Yeah, things are not looking good for our wood boy. Square has a character in the FP and Mario got a DLC newcomer alrady. Sure, there's no arbitrary rule saying these are absolute restrictions, but... I think these do count as a hit against Geno. Plus, he's a spirit, so that's a 0% in my book.

Some people have hope he will be a bonus DLC outside the pass, but frankly, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Want: 100%
He's one of the last few Mario characters I'd like to see and one of my Top 5 third parties. Plus, aside from his unique fighting style of magic and guns, he could incorporate something we're missing: a character with the mechanics of Mario's RPGs. Not to mention more SMRPG spirits and the really awesome music that game has. But alas, not today, it seems.

Sora

Chance: 1%
The only reasons he's not a 0% is because his rights technically belong to Disney, not Square, so Hero doesn't fully deconfirm him. Square's VP has deconfirmed him, but I'm giving a 1% just on the off chance that this is a Grant Kirkhope situation. But I'm not expecting Sora in any way.

Want: 100%
If not for his apparent deconfirmation, he'd be my most wanted right now. While I do have my reservations about KH, I've been invested in it since my teenage years and I think in terms of notoriety, the series has more than earned its place in the big leagues.

Sure, I have doubts about how faithful the character would be without any Disney references (since they are non-videogame characters), but now that Banjo got in, Sora is my ultimate dream pick. His combination of aerial movement and combat, magic and swordsmanship could make for a really interesting character.

Predictions:

Ryu Hayabusa: 50%
Chosen Undead: 20%

Nominations:

Kyo Kusanagi x5

 

[Nquoid]

Is Bowser Jr's side special kinda reminiscent of the clown car thing in Mario Kart? And Peach/Daisy has a golf club and racket to attack with

The clown car is from the New Super Mario Bros. series, although it's certainly the closest we've gotten. But Bowser Jr. only has the 3 Mario Kart titles under his belt regardless. And Peach having the golf club and racket is cool, but I'd definitely prefer to have Waluigi with a full side game moveset considering his complete dearth of appearances in mainline Mario games, but I also think that's why he hasn't been playable yet too.

 

[StormC]

Geno

Chance: 5%. The best things going for him are the long-standing fan demand, and Sakurai addressing it along with his own desire to put Geno in Smash. But he's a third-party Spirit and his costume is probably returning with Hero. While I could have seen him as a base game addition, I struggle to think of why they would sell him as DLC, outside of diehard nerds on internet message boards he has little cultural clout to speak of, and I don't think they're going to double up on companies on this Fighters Pass and the chance of future DLC past that is pretty slim.

Want: 60%. While he isn't an especially important character, I'm a huge, huge SMRPG fan, it was my first ever RPG and I have a lot of fond memories associated with that game. Seeing Geno fully realized in HD along with potentially a SMRPG stage and music would kick my nostalgia into overdrive and I have no doubt Sakurai could do something cool with his moveset. He would also be proof that fan demand can get basically any character in and open a lot of floodgates in that regard. I don't think he's "needed" but it'd certainly be a momentous occasion if he got in, if for nothing else because of everything holding him back.

Sora

Chance: 5%. He's probably one of the most requested "guest characters" left and Sakurai has a good relationship with Nomura, but I think he would be viewed as another Square-Enix character even if he technically isn't owned by them so they would probably look elsewhere. As someone who works in the entertainment industry, I think some people underestimate how difficult Disney might be to work with on this (not impossible, just difficult), and I feel Nintendo and Sakurai would rather just not bother. That said he will continue to be a popular character request that I could see something giving by Smash 6, but most likely not for this round of DLC.

Want: 70%. Only played the first Kingdom Hearts, but I liked it quite a bit and Sora would be a mindblowing reveal, on the level of the Snake/Cloud reveals of "holy crap they actually did that!" While I'd be more excited if I wasn't 99% sure the Disney content would be missing from his moveset and stage, he'd still be one of the last third party characters that could really break the internet in shock and hype, and I'd love to be there when it happened. I'd add another 5 percent if Donald and Goofy showed up in the Final Smash, though!

 

[Ovaltine]

Don't really post here ever, but I've gotta show some love for my boy, even though my opinion on his chances is very poor.

GENO

CHANCE: 0.01%
I will eat my hat if he makes it in, honestly. I personally think that he's dead in the water, no chance unless we get more DLC, which I'm not holding my breath for. That being said, that tiny, minuscule point I have given him is just in the event that Sakurai pulls a fast one on me. I didn't think B-K was going to happen at all, yet they did, so... I can't rule out my expectations, solid as they are, being broken. That said, he's a spirit, his Mii costume is probably coming back with Hero, and Nintendo and Square have shown that he is clearly not a priority. (It's understandable, given how huge DQ is, but it's no less heartbreaking as a fan of Geno who isn't all that into DQ.) SMRPG is the least beloved of Squaresoft's older games by Square themselves, and Nintendo owns the rights to Mario, while SE has SMRPG and Geno. If Nintendo owned them, it might have been a bit different, might have not, given how Nintendo treats the Mario RPGs as a whole. It's all such a precarious and tragic situation that knocks Geno down so many pegs. I'll always vocalize my support, but my hopes for him in Ultimate are next to nothing. I'm focusing my hopes on future Smash titles or something outside of Smash, because while unlikely, at least those chances aren't essentially zero.

WANT: 100%
He's my last most wanted in need of a revival (Shadow the Hedgehog has plenty of material elsewhere, so I'm fine with him not being in). The amount of potential I see in him as a character, especially in comparison to other Mario characters, is ridiculous. Not only is his arsenal cool, but what little tidbits of personality we get from him is also so, so 90's, it hurts. A sassy, confident star spouting 90's slang while turning into a cannon and taking down his foes? I can't NOT love him. I think that, if we learned more of his backstory and got more dialogue from him in a new game, he'd go pretty far in terms of his depth. Alas, he just hadn't been given that in SMRPG, and I want to see the day that he does. Smash, of course, is a step in the right direction.

That being said, I am of the unpopular opinion that I'd like to see Geno return to his home series before a Smash inclusion... but I realize how difficult that is. If he had been first party, Smash wouldn't feel like such a huge goal, but his situation is so darn sticky. It's really depressing. I'm using the sadness of his rejection for Ultimate to my advantage, though, and I'd love to give Geno that love and depth he deserves with my talents. If Nintendo and Square can't deliver what the fans want, then why can't one of those fans do so with a huge labor of love? That is my goal. That is my dream.

Abstaining from Sora. Never played KH and, honestly, lots of other people already chimed in with what I would have on his chances.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Geno:
Chance: 1%
Several issues stand in Geno's way. Being a Spirit. Hero being Square's new fighter to push. Two Mario characters have already made it into Smash Ultimate as Newcomers. There's also the chance he'll return as a Mii outfit but until that one comes to light I can't really rule that one as against the guy.

Want: 3%
I'll be honest; I still don't really get the love of Geno. I've had it explained to me repeatedly by patient SMRPG fans and I still just don't really get it?

Maybe because I'm from the UK and thus don't have nostalgia for the puppet or the game he appeared in as we didn't get it on SNES, or maybe because Geno's just a very perplexing character to an outsider looking in when it comes to Smash support.

Geno's a one off side party member in a spinoff Mario RPG game from 20+ years ago in which he turned up between a third to half way through the game that my side of the planet didn't get to see until Virtual Console finally rolled around.
On paper he should have barely any support and yet he's somehow one of the biggest characters in Smash speculation. It's rather weird when you think about it.

Unfortunately by the point Geno and his game launched on Virtual Console, us Europeans had at least three other Mario RPGs to my recollection including Superstar Saga(which was excellent) and Paper Mario The Thousand Year Door(which is by far my favourite RPG EVER) so when I got the chance to play SMRPG I've got to say I found it pretty underwhelming. Not really the fault of the game itself, as I imagine I'd feel the same if I played Pokemon Red after Pokemon Black for the first time but still unfortunate for all us Europeans.

I'm far less venomous towards Geno than I once was, even having Captain Toad grant his wish in a pretty cute Christmas Smash comic I did 8 months ago, but I'll be honest; there's Mario characters I want more in Captain Toad(or regular Toad) and Waluigi
There's Square characters I want more in Lara Croft
There's Mario RPG characters I want more in Paper Mario and Fawful
There's Mario RPG partners I honestly want more in Goombella and Vivian
There's even third party created Nintendo characters I want more in Vaati, who pretty much has the same issues as Geno with a few more appearances under his belt and Linkle.

What I would really like to see, however, is Geno and Mallow make it into a Mario Sports game:
A remake of Mario Double Dash having them as racing buddies or have them as doubles partners in the next Mario Tennis game or we get a Mario Sports Mix 2 and Square deems us all worthy enough to get those two Square created Mario characters as playable characters instead of three kind of generic Final Fantasy classes, two Final Fantasy monster mascots and Dragon Quest's Slime.

I mean come on Square, that was the perfect time to reintroduce them and you blew it. Surely you could have sacrificed two of the five Final Fantasy characters for these two?

As a last note; I also find it very bizarre that all the attention for Geno's return is just on Smash instead of the Mario sports games, Mario mainline games or...weirdly enough Mario RPGs.

Also weirdly Mallow doesn't get any love and that kind of sucks to me.

Sora
Chance: 4%
Sora faces similar issues as Geno in that he's owned by two companies and one of those companies has had Hero revealed as a character. Also the whole © Disney issue. On the flip side, unlike Geno, Sora does have a game franchise to push and it's one of most beloved series in modern days.

Want: A tentative 20%
I LOVED the first Kingdom Hearts game. It was ridiculously outlandish in it's concept. Final Fantasy X Disney. On paper sounds like an awful fan fiction and...well okay honestly it devolved over time into an awful fanfiction and is memed the hell out of for it's ridiculously convoluted plot and overuse of the words 'heart' and 'darkness' but the first game for me just worked.

That said, it worked for me mostly because I, like basically anybody who enjoys drawing or cartoons, enjoy Disney films and properties.
If you remove Sora from Donald and Goofy I'm not really sure I'd have as fun a time. Sora without the Disney summons or ability to call his two besties into fight alongside him honestly doesn't sound very exciting to me, I feel he'd just be an aerial heavy swordsman doing lots of spins and nonsense and that's a big pass from me. Include Donald and Goofy though and I'd shoot that 20% up to 65%. Include Disney summons and you can boost that up another 10%.

Speaking of; are Donald and Goofy even allowed to appear? One of the few things Sakurai has said and stuck to, is a firm no to characters that didn't originate in video games...hmmm....

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Speaking of; are Donald and Goofy even allowed to appear? One of the few things Sakurai has said and stuck to, is a firm no to characters that didn't originate in video games...hmmm....

This is obviously far more different from an actual physical appearance, but Mickey and Donald were mentioned in the "Chronicles" section all the way back in Brawl.

Sakurai has also put in Lightsabers (Beam Swords literally looked identical to them in Brawl) and Motion Sensor Bombs from James Bond's GoldenEye 007 (looked identical to them in 64 and Melee), so small references to non video game stuff (mostly item based) haven't been ruled out in the past. Whether he's willing to take the next step and make physical appearances of characters is up to him. As long as none of them actually become playable it probably shouldn't outright break the rule, but what do I know?

 

[Ovaltine]

As a last note; I also find it very bizarre that all the attention for Geno's return is just on Smash instead of the Mario sports games, Mario mainline games or...weirdly enough Mario RPGs.

Also weirdly Mallow doesn't get any love and that kind of sucks to me.

I agree on the Mario RPG front, for real, especially when it comes to AlphaDream. We have former Square devs who worked on SMRPG in AlphaDream, and in fact, the company is at least partly founded by them. I also agree that Mallow SERIOUSLY needs more love. I love both of my boys dearly.

That being said, I understand why Geno and Mallow aren't being as rallied for with the sports (sans the Nintendo/SE crossover ones) or mainline games. They're very first party games with no involvement from third parties, whereas Smash already has third party involvement from jump (especially Brawl, where the want for Geno really came to a head, given Snake was added). I can see why it'd seem easier to get Geno somewhere wherein third parties are already being negotiated with (let alone Square being on-board themselves since Sm4sh), as opposed to first party games where Nintendo would really have to go out of their way.

 

[Nicnac]

Geno:

Chances: 20% tops.
He's a spirit, online icon, and soon probably a Mii Costume. Almost everything apart from a fighter, and I doubt Sakurai slams in two Squenix fighters in the pass. However, he is one of the only long-running requests still not in, Sakurai likes him, there's the whole Vifam figure stuff... It's confusing.

Wants: 100%. I seriously dig his design, mannerisms, abilities, and his game needs some love in the modern era. He's also pretty much the only long-runner left, so it'd be nice to see some completion of fan wants.

Sora:

Chances: 10%, tops.
Not only does he have the Squenix problem that haunts Geno, but he also has the House of Mouse, which is infinitely more complex. Sakurai's all about adhering to source material, and it's not really Sora without his Disney pals.

Wants: 10%.
I don't like Kingdom Hearts, I don't like the abundance of swordies too much, and I don't like him. That said, I know his fans would lose it upon inclusion, and I'd be really happy for them.

 

[Ze Diglett]

Crawling out of my hole just this once to get my thoughts out on these two.

****ing Geno

Chance: 1%
Man, Geno really got screwed this time around. I remember during the base game when his chances were looking so bright and all the speculators were flocking to him like he was basically confirmed... good times. But here we are seven months later, the blue boi is in as a recycled render at best, and we're almost certainly getting the Mii Costume back unceremoniously in a matter of days when Hero drops. Geno's fans have gotten the "so close, maybe next time" treatment so many times it seems, and the way things are now, it seems likely that it'll stay that way.

Want: 100%
Just put him in already.

In all seriousness, it really feels like Geno should be in this game to me. We've gotten fan juggernauts like Ridley, K. Rool, and Banjo thus far making it seem like anything's possible given a persistent following... yet the longest requested character bar Ridley himself is relegated to the role of a glorified Sticker? I know I'll inevitably be hit with the "MUH ENTITLED" hammer for this, but it really doesn't feel like this game can be the definitive edition of Smash like it so clearly tries to be without Geno. I recognize that they've done so much for us already, but I really wish they'd just go all the way and complete the Brawl never-ever squad rather than dancing around Geno's popularity by throwing bootleg costumes and offhand references at us. If we absolutely can't get Geno as playable for whatever reason, I'd honestly be willing to settle for an AT at this point. At least then his fans would have a model to show for over 10 years of persistent support.

****** Supreme

Chance: 1%
I never considered Sora a likely contender to begin with, and now that we have our Square rep, I severely doubt his chances in Ultimate. For a later game, I think he's definitely on the table as the next "Square rep" (even if he's technically Disney), but for now, I think he's done for.

Want: 0%
Nothing personal against the character or his series since I haven't played it, but I just really do not want Disney getting involved with Smash, period. If it were any other company on Earth, I'd say have at it, but given how predatory and ****ty Disney consistently is, the idea of it getting anywhere near Smash fills me with a kind of dread I can't quite describe. Hardest of hard passes on this one.

Nominating Heavy Weapons Guy x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

The Square Enix bois who became Woody.

Geno

Chance: 0.01%

Geno is pretty much done at this point. He wasn't in the base game, he's a spirit and Hero is the 2nd Square Enix rep. Not to mention the fact that he's a side character from one Mario game so he's really not DLC material compared to the likes of Dragon Quest itself.

Want: 5%

It would be higher if it was base game simply because he works better there. But since this is DLC, I'd prefer much bigger guys for this time of round.

Sora

Chance: Disney/100(or 0.01% in this case)

Granted, Sora is not a SE rep, but a Disney rep, but that just makes him even more unlikely. He was on the 7 SE list but he's been dismissed. And of course he's owned by Disney which just makes licensing him a headache itself. Even with the some of the higher ups from SE and Disney, Disney is quite controlling on how their IPs appear in the crossover and the ridiculous fees they would charge as well.

Want: 30%

Ehh he's alright. Not my cup of tea in terms of discussed guest characters on Smash forums. Especially if the content gets gimped even worse than Final Fantasy for this game.

Predictions:

Ryu Hayabusa: 36.66%
Chosen Undead: 17.44%

Nominate Velvet Crowe x5

 

[3BitSaurus]

I will eat my hat if he makes it in, honestly.

Okay, girl, now I'm starting to get legitimately curious. What's with your promises to eat weird ****? This is like the fifth time I've seen you make these and I'm a relatively new user.

But to echo what other people have said: Square had several opportunities to revive Geno and Mallow, but refused every single one of them. At this point, selling the rights of the characters to Nintendo would legitimately be better for the fans, I think. It's even worse than what Banjo's situation was, and that means something.

 

[Ovaltine]

Okay, girl, now I'm starting to get legitimately curious. What's with your promises to eat weird ****? This is like the fifth time I've seen you make these and I'm a relatively new user.

But to echo what other people have said: Square had several opportunities to revive Geno and Mallow, but refused every single one of them. At this point, selling the rights of the characters to Nintendo would legitimately be better for the fans, I think. It's even worse than what Banjo's situation was, and that means something.

I guess you could say I'm a glutton for punishment.

Also, I'd love if they sold Geno's and Mallow's rights to Nintendo, but there's no way it'd go over well. They'll cost a pretty penny, and Nintendo won't see the cost being worth the long-term gain. There's also the fact that the Mario RPGs are being so ignored... but at least then, I'd have faith in a SMRPG remake. Peasley and Fawful are two fan favorites that got lots of love via remakes, after all. It's better than nothing.

 

[3BitSaurus]

I guess you could say I'm a glutton for punishment.

Also, I'd love if they sold Geno's and Mallow's rights to Nintendo, but there's no way it'd go over well. They'll cost a pretty penny, and Nintendo won't see the cost being worth the long-term gain. There's also the fact that the Mario RPGs are being so ignored... but at least then, I'd have faith in a SMRPG remake. Peasley and Fawful are two fan favorites that got lots of love via remakes, after all. It's better than nothing.

Worst part is: in the event Square sold them for cheap, with the way Nintendo is treating M&L and Paper Mario recently, there's no guarantee Geno and Mallow would get the love they deserve, either. Man, is this a weird time to be a Mario RPG fan...

 

[StormC]

Worst part is: in the event Square sold them for cheap, with the way Nintendo is treating M&L and Paper Mario recently, there's no guarantee Geno and Mallow would get the love they deserve, either. Man, is this a weird time to be a Mario RPG fan...

That’s my feeling too. Even if we woke up tomorrow and all the SMRPG rights went to Nintendo, they’d just collect dust like the other RPG characters. If it took this long to get K. Rool back, it really doesn’t bode well for others.

 

[SKX31]

That’s my feeling too. Even if we woke up tomorrow and all the SMRPG rights when to Nintendo, they’d just collect dust like the other RPG characters. If it took this long to get K. Rool back, it really doesn’t bode well for others.

I have a sneaking suspicion that it's Nintendo's org culture and Miyamoto (who's a massive influence there), and his design philosophy. Basically, to qoute Miyamoto:

"From my perspective," he said, "we approach it not from, ‘What is the next character?' But really, ‘What is there within this structure of video games or this sphere of video games, from which we can create new play structures?' and ‘How can we develop these new types of play structures and new types of games and deliver those to consumers in a way that will be satisfying for them?' In some cases it may be that those new structures will use existing franchises. So we're focused more on the play and the interaction rather than necessarily on a specific character as the IP."

The qoute's lifted from this Polygon article discussing Luigi's Mansion 2's release.

Not just K. Rool, Geno or Paper Mario / M&L side characters, it's everywhere with Miyamoto. Loads of Zelda characters who are not the Big 3*. Star Fox side characters. And so on. New ways to play, after all.

*(Aghanim's a special case - I'm pretty willing to bet big money on one thing: that more people recognize the ability-upgrading item "Aghanim's Sceptre" from Dota 2 than the Zelda character at this point. Yes, that's a reference from the Dota creator. It's pretty much clear when "Linken's Sphere", an item that auto-blocks one spell every X secs, is also in that MOBA.).

This is obviously far more different from an actual physical appearance, but Mickey and Donald were mentioned in the "Chronicles" section all the way back in Brawl.

Sakurai has also put in Lightsabers (Beam Swords literally looked identical to them in Brawl) and Motion Sensor Bombs from James Bond's GoldenEye 007 (looked identical to them in 64 and Melee), so small references to non video game stuff (mostly item based) haven't been ruled out in the past. Whether he's willing to take the next step and make physical appearances of characters is up to him. As long as none of them actually become playable it probably shouldn't outright break the rule, but what do I know?

There's a certain danger in physical appearances - if Mickey / Donald / Goofy appears in Sora's stage or something like an AT demand will skyrocket for them to become playable. The "No non-video game character" rule hasn't stopped actual icons like Goku or memetic picks like Shrek from being suggested a lot. And I'm not sure myself if the rule will hold forever: that's why additional rules and clarity would be needed to stop the floodgates. In case anything 4th party actually makes it through. Such as any non-video game characters being incredibly rare (1 in 100 new characters total, at least, or 1 in 150) and the non-video game character being very important to the video game industry / its inclusion being meant to celebrate Nintendo history.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Geno

Chance: 0%
Not only is he a spirit, but we already have an SE rep so it's as if his chances got double killed.

Want: 10%
I played SMRPG a long time ago and I loved it very much, yet I still don't get the craze over Geno or what makes him special. To me he's a boring and non-charismatic puppet that only served as a device for plot exposition and to be an extra party member. He didn't get any character arc like Mallow and he didn't make any major appearances ever since his debut which means his character remained primitive and did not evolve in any special way, so as a result he is remembered as that one party member from that one game over 20 years ago and nothing more than that. His design is cool I guess, but that's about it, he doesn't interest me in any way and he's not my favorite Mario RPG character. He just doesn't appeal to me as a Mario rep or an SE rep. For a general Mario rep I'd prefer Waluigi, and if we speak purely about a Mario RPG rep then I'd prefer we get Paper Mario or Fawful. For an SE rep I'd prefer a multitude of other characters like Sora or Adam Jenson. Geno just doesn't do it for me, the character is so obscure and unimportant in the grand scheme of things that I'm just left thinking "why do people actually care about this character?".


Sora

Chance: 0%
Already got a Square Enix rep, and I doubt Nintendo would double down on the same company.

Want: 65%
I Love the Kingdom Hearts games and I find Sora interesting as a character addition. The Kingdom Hearts series has a special place in my heart for getting me excited over Disney characters crossing with Final Fantasy characters in a video game. The plot is dumb and convoluted as expected from the setting but who cares about that? You play Kingdom Hearts for the gameplay and to explore the different Disney worlds. Sora would be a neat addition since his keyblade powers will lead him to have a fun and unique moveset in Smash. Not my most wanted, but definitely a character I'd be happy to see.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Geno

Chance: 1%

The only thing going for him is fan popularity and Sakurai considering him in the past. He is a spirit which most likely is a deconfirmation. Also, I am a strong believer that each company will only get one character at least for this fighters pass and I'm pretty dam sure his Mii costume will come back, burying him for good.

Want: 55%

I've never played Legend of the Seven Stars but Geno seems like a charming character with fun moveset potential and seeing him make it in would make me happy for his fans. Still, I would prefer so many other characters over him, including other Square Enix characters like Lara Croft and Sora, and speaking of Sora.....


Sora

Chance: 1%

As previously stated, I strongly believe each company will only get one rep, at least for this fighters pass. Also, the licensing fees would probably be a nightmare and it could be tricky incorporating Sora in without anything Disney related. They could have Donald and Goofy at least be in Sora's final smash, but even that would open a can of worms. It's a shame, because otherwise Sora would have a great shot at making it in and before Hero's announcement I was very confident Sora could get in. He is very popular and has some games on Nintendo's portable devices (Can't call them consoles or else people would get triggered).

Want: 65%

I'm not a big Kingdom Hearts fan, but I have played a bit of the first game and it's very charming. I don't have much to say here, I just think Sora deserves to be in Smash and I want to see him in the game alongside a cool moveset and some great music.

 

[Nemuresu]

Puppetmon:
Chance: 0%-As soon as I heard the whole "don't take him seriously" stuff that Vergeben mentioned, I knew it wasn't a good sign. But even if we don't take his word into account, we already have a Mario character as DLC, I stand where spirits are a death sentence for characters, and on top of that, I actually do expect the Geno Mii costume to pop up soon.
Want: 50%-Let's just say, my desire for him has worn out throughout this season. I'll take him, but I won't be as excited I for him was I would've been a few months ago.

Sora:
Chance: 0%-Now that Banjo is out of the picture, I can see Sora as the most requested character in Smash communities. Nintendo has shown that they can cater to fan demand, and it would be natural to bring him in. That said though, I'm just not optimistic about him. It's not even because he's a Disney character. Something just tells me he won't be in. Not to mention, Vergeben outright said he wouldn't be in, and last time people dismissed his word on Smash (basically the whole 7 Square characters stuff), it didn't really go well for them.
Want: 50%-I'm rather neutral. He's welcome in my eyes, but that's about it. Happy for his fans if he made it in though.

Predictions:
Ryu Hayabusa: 31.75%
Chosen Undead: 18.46%