Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Mushroomguy12]

Ryu Hayabusa:
Chance: 20%
He seems to fit all the elements of the Fighter's Pass, being an unrepresented 3rd Party and all. The main reason everyone saw him as a "given" was that leak, that has since then proven to be bogus. As a result, he really doesn't have any greater chance than all the other 3rd party candidates tbh.

Want: 1%
I mean, I have a little experience with him in Dead or Alive, but he doesn't really stand out to me as someone at the top of my list. There are still so many other characters that I would want over him so he really doesn't do anything for me.


Chosen Undead:
Chance: 1%
This guy doesn't really have the iconicness of some of the other characters, he doesn't really have anything standing out for him, not even a bogus leak. I really don't know why this guy of all the 3rd party choices would be picked.

Want: 0%
Sorry, I have no interest in this character. I can't even justify him compared to Ryu, which was at least an NES icon. Again, does absolutely nothing for me.

 

[StormC]

Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 40%. At this stage in Smash speculation with only two slots I have a hard time going over 50% for any character... but Hayabusa I think is a dark horse pick. Koei-Tecmo is already in the game and has a healthy relationship with Nintendo, Ninja Gaiden got its start with an iconic NES trilogy, the character is at least as recognizable as Joker, and he offers a lot of gameplay potential, especially as the ninja archtype is relatively untapped, with only two characters fitting that description in a roster of 70+. His main issues are he isn't a popular request or especially relevant nowadays (though he still shows up in Dead Or Alive) and his series is pretty obscure in Japan. I would feel stronger about him as a base game addition than DLC. But I think he's being slept on a bit and feels like he fits the theme of this Fighters Pass of characters/series that are pretty well known but not like, omega superstars. If there's any Japanese third party company to get a character in Smash that hasn't yet, it's almost definitely Tecmo, and Hayabusa is the obvious pick.

Want: 70%. I always thought Hayabusa was an obvious pick; after Mega Man and Castlevania, Ninja Gaiden is the last iconic action-platformer that got its start on the NES, and after Dragon Quest, basically the last notable third party in general that started on the NES. I recently played the first Ninja Gaiden and enjoyed it quite a bit, Hayabusa would definitely bring something fresh to the table. Of the more "likely" choices for this pass, he's definitely one of my favorite candidates. And don't forget that inevitable Unbreakable Determination remix, that's worth at least 5%!

Chosen Undead

Chance: 10%. Dark Souls is one of the biggest video game series to come out of the 2010s, and it definitely feels "big enough" for Smash if series like Persona are. But I'm not sure they would go for it with a playable fighter since the Chosen Undead isn't really... a character. It doesn't have an iconic, distinctive design like Villager or the Heroes; if they went with the default knight outfit, they would just look like... some random knight in Smash. Solaire is definitely more recognizable and the de facto mascot, but if they didn't pick Slime over the Hero, they aren't gonna pick Solaire. I feel like Sakurai is going to prioritize a worthwhile character over a worthwhile series, and if Chosen Undead doesn't stand out enough, he won't choose to represent Dark Souls.

Want: 10%. Dark Souls is a big enough series, but it's hard to get excited over a generic playable character. Dark Souls is all about the cool monsters and mythology and Chosen Undead wouldn't really represent that meaningfully. There are definitely other Namco characters I would prefer seeing.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I gotta say, for two of the most demanded characters in Smash history... There was a lot of hatred for Geno and Sora. Didn't expect that at all.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Geno/Sora pre-Ryu Hayabusa/Chosen Undead

Heavy (Team Fortress) x183
Crono x150
Kyle Hyde x150
Kamek x139
Cadence (Crypt of the Necrodancer) x135
Ellie (The Last of Us) x120
Saber (Fate) x117

150 - 101

Rundas x115
Concept: Rockstar Games rep x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Ninten x100
Gene (God Hand) x100
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
Terry Bogard x95
Velvet Crowe x90
Frogger x85
Glover x85
Specter Knight x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
9-Volt x80
[Rerate] Micaiah x80
Adeleine (Kirby) x78
Jin Kazama x75
Blaze the Cat x70
X (Mega Man) x68
Captain Rainbow x67
Concept: More Bosses x60
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x60
Papyrus x51
Decidueye x51

50 - 25

Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x50
Brian (Quest 64) x47
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x40
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x38
Gooey (Kirby) x37
Concept: DLC challenges x35
Earthworm Jim x33
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Qbby x30
Concept: Another western character x30
Cooking Mama x30
Amaterasu x30
Kyo Kusanagi x30
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x28
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25
Kratos x25
Lara Croft x25
Proto Man x25

Under 25

Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x22
Reporter & Wrestler x20
Tora and Poppi x20
Johnny Silverhand x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
King Boo x16
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Marx (Kirby) x14
Black Shadow x13
Concept: Another joke character x13
Gex x12
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x12
Mike Jones x11
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Grookey's final evolution x10
Concept: Medabots rep x10
Sir Arthur (Ghosts 'n Goblins) x10
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x10
Magolor x9
Toon Zelda x8
Blacephalon x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
Rash x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Concept: League of Legends rep x5
Serious Sam x5
Concept: A character outside the Fighter Pass x5
Goemon (Mystical Ninja) x5
Lizalfos x4
Urbosa x3
Concept: No More DLC x3
Boss: Sans x2
Sub-Zero x2
Concept: Street Fighter Mii costumes x2
Rad Spencer x2
Gordon Freeman x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
Pappy Van Poodle x1
Dr. Eggman x1
Toon Zelda & Tetra x1
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x1
[Rerate] Sans x1

Kratos, Lara Croft and Proto Man shoot through the under 25 club.

Your new nominees for the day are Gordon Freeman (2 noms), a rerate of Sans (1 nom), Concept: A character outside the Fighter Pass (5 noms) and Goemon (5 noms).

Spoiler: Calcs

Geno
8.09% Chance, 54.39% Want
Winner of predictions was @Velveeta Dream with exactly 7.00%
Last time we rated him he got 18.10% Chance and 43.03% Want. This was pre-release and might have been when there was a debate over whether his online icon implied a Spirit. And, obviously, pre-Hero. As for the uptick in want, the Geno fanbase is one of the few that still thinks they have a shot, so they keep growing; but it appears that Geno is still a controversial choice for many.

Sora
7.32% Chance, 47.47% Want
Winner of predictions was FancySmash with 5.46%
Last time we rated him he got 15.87% Chance and 38.64% Want. To be honest I would have expected him to have been much higher (the lowest prediction for him back then was 20%), what with KHIII upcoming and Joker still unrevealed. Regardless, he's obviously lower because of Hero. As for want, who knows? Maybe more people got around to playing KH with the release of III.

It's worth noting that both of them got a 100% in chance so the scores are inflated by that.

Not going to list everyone with extra noms because this post is already pretty loaded.

Nobody was ever really asking for him

Neither was Simon and yet here we are.

Tecmo doesn't really have a connection to Smash

Fatal Frame is in Smash. That's a Tecmo franchise.

 

[Nemuresu]

Ryu Hayabusa:
Chance: 40%-Due to his pedigree as a classic NES character, I can see him as a strong contender to be DLC. After all, Nintendo still seems to care about him to feature Ninja Gaiden in stuff like the NES classic or the Virtual Console. I wouldn't sleep on him for the lack of new entries, since Banjo hasn't had a game in nearly a decade, yet he's in.
Want: 70%-I like the character. While his game is one of the most painful to finish (though not as bad as Ghosts 'N Goblins), I do have to admit I had a blast playing it.

Despite my hesitance to abstain, I'm gonna do so for Chosen Undead. My interest in Dark Souls has always been microscopic.

Predictions:
Shantae: 11.28% (I would've given her a far lower score, but after seeing some posts from last day, I'm sure some will probably throw more optimistic chance rates around)
Professor Layton: 20.47%

 

[jamesster445]

Raiyu Heyaboosa
Chance: 50%
Want: 100%

Literally nothing has changed since the last time we rated him.

Dank Souls guy
Chance: 50%
Want: 50%

Dark Souls was one of the few third parties that are NOT smash related to get an Amiibo. It has a cultural impact for better or worse. I have never played a Soulsborne game so I have no real weight or merit to the guy. I just hope he looks cool like Artorias

Nominations Euden

 

[3DSNinja]

Nintendo Hard
Chance:99%: I honestly think that Hayubusa is very likely. He just had DOA6, and he is the ultimate NES icon to the point of the NES quartet being Mario, Mega Man, Simon, and Ryu. Plus he would fit in.
Want:100%: I love Ninjas. Plus, I love the Ninja Gaiden trilogy. ALso, he inspired the Messenger, the second best game.of 2018. I need him.
I literally had no idea who Chosen Undead was until now, so. no.
Specter Knight x5

 

[Deleted member]

I'm going to rate Chosen Undead first and Ryu Hayabusa second, but I just gotta add this is quite the RTC topic since both of these games were known for being hard.
-------------------------------
The protagonist from a game with more confusing lore than Kingdom Hearts

Chance: 5%

Spoiler: Chance Reasoning

Dark Souls is certainly 1 of Bandai Namco's most notable IPs. Not only is it very popular but I believe it's actually under a decade old, which if Dark Souls actually does become a part of Smash it'll be the 2nd youngest franchise with a fighter in Smash right behind Splatoon (unless Demon's Souls is actually a part of the franchise). Even without looking at the sales numbers, it's hard to find someone that has never heard about Dark Souls before with how much of a presence the games and FromSoftware has in the gaming industry, so Nintendo could potentially pick that franchise for the Fighter Pass.

With that being said, this is going to be very hypothetical since I'm mainly basing this off of the first game given we're talking about the Chosen Undead, but putting an actual fighter from Dark Souls in Smash just might be too complicated for Sakurai to consider and may just reject the idea entirely. Dark Souls is known for its hard as nails gameplay, but unlike a lot of hard games before it, the combat is slow paced and heavily focused on preserving stamina and attacking at the right moment and spots. Ultimate is faster paced than Dark Souls, so already it sounds tough to translate Dark Souls' style into Smash. As for the combat itself, Dark Souls' stamina meter does not sound like a fun gimmick/mechanic for the Chosen Undead in Smash. Even if they designed it to where it's only tied to attacks and no stamina will do significantly less damage than with it, a reverse Joker is a very risky design choice to make because then you'd be selling the Chosen Undead by how hard they play rather than how fun they look to play, which should be the most important aspect of DLC in general. Dark Souls fans would probably enjoy the challenge of playing a character with that kind of gimmick, but I find it hard to believe non-Dark Souls fans would have as much fun.

Want: 5%

Spoiler: Want Reasoning

While I've rated most characters fairly low on RTC, they've stayed over 10% because at least their playstyles from their respective games looked like they'd fit Smash decently on paper. I honestly can't say the same for the Chosen Undead or any of the Dark Souls protagonists for that matter. From pacing to the combat, the prospect of putting the Chosen Undead in Smash is too much of a clash of styles for me to want it. I also prefer playing more offensively than defensively, which I think Chosen Undead will be a very defensive character for that matter, so he's probably my least wanted 3rd Party Fighter currently. The reason why the want rating isn't lower than 5 is because the reactions will at least be enjoyable to watch. If anything, the Chosen Undead would be best represented as a Mii Costume if Dark Souls content were to make it into Smash. I don't believe Chosen Undead has a defined look like the Dragonborn has, and considering Miis are very customizable, it'd be a very fitting choice to make a Mii costume out of him.

-------------------------------
The Dark Souls of Platformers and Hack n Slashers

Chance: 51%

Spoiler: Chance Reasoning pt 1

Originally, I rated Ryu Hayabusa somewhere over 70% with a lot of optimism because of Ninja Gaiden's NES ties and the business relationship between Koei-Tecmo, Team Ninja, and Nintendo. While I still think Hayabusa has a pretty high chance of being in Smash as DLC, Ninja Gaiden isn't the only potential IP from K-T that could potentially make it into Smash, and it isn't Dead or Alive or Nioh. The IP(s) I'm referring to are Omega-Force's Dynasty Warriors and Samurai Warriors. I probably shouldn't bring up other franchises when doing an RTC for specific characters, but I do feel it's worth mentioning how Ninja Gaiden isn't the only franchise Koei-Tecmo would consider for Smash. Ninja Gaiden and the Musou games are 2 of their biggest franchises, though they're big for different reasons. Ninja Gaiden has a lot of name value and can be looked upon as Tecmo's most influential and iconic series while Musou games has done financially better than the former with a ****load of popular spinoffs, and with how successful Hyrule Warriors was, I don't think it'll be all too surprising if Ryu Hayabusa gets overlooked by a Musou character due to the sheer amount of content packed in those games compared to Ninja Gaiden.

Spoiler: Chance Reasoning pt 2

Another thing I want to bring up is that the only Fighter Packs not yet to be revealed are 4 & 5, and I strongly believe if Ryu Hayabusa is in the Fighter Pass, his Fighter Pack will have to be the 4th pack. Since the latest Ninja Gaiden game that came out was from 2014, I find it unlikely that Nintendo and Sakurai would place him in the 5th spot since I believe the last character will be from a franchise where their recent game(s) were released after 2016. He may not top Banjo-Kazooie in terms of the kind of reactions he'll get, but placing Ryu Hayabusa at the 4th Fighter Pack is the most fitting spot for him on the Fighter Pass. If it's revealed to not be him and we were to re-rerate him afterwards, the chance rating I have on him currently will drastically change.

With that being said, Ryu Hayabusa still has a lot to offer as DLC. When I see people bring up that he would seem to be the kind of character that would be in the base game, I would agree with them if we're talking about the NES version of Ryu Hayabusa. The reason I think he will become DLC is because he'll be based off of Team Ninja's version of the Ninja Gaiden games as they lean towards a more mature audience while also looking easier to tone down to the E10+ rating than other rated M games, and they offer a lot more moveset material than the NES games do (though that isn't to say they won't mix a few NES stuff in his moveset). He has a good amount of signature moves in those games that can translate well in Smash with how solid the pacing and animations are in those games. While the modern Ninja Gaiden games may not be looked upon as a Nintendo Classic, they were certainly present in the Xbox scene even more than Banjo-Kazooie ever were. Ryu Hayabusa would not only please and appeal to the crowd that want more NES franchises in Smash but also potentially a good chunk of Xbox fans since the modern games were mainly on Xbox consoles, and recently, they became backwards compatible on the Xbox One (you could even say he's probably more of a Microsoft rep than BK is lol).

Want: 100%

Spoiler: Want Reasoning

Nothing has changed for me to not want Ryu Hayabusa. He's still my most wanted Newcomer for Smash and for good reason. While I actually haven't played any of the Ninja Gaiden games with the exception of the 1st NES game, I've always been very fond of Koei-Tecmo despite their rather confusing business practices with their games, and Ryu Hayabusa is the ideal character for me: looks cool (especially the Legendary Black Falcon outfit), has some badass signature moves (Flying Swallow and the Izuna Drop), and has an amazing theme (Unbreakable Determination). In fact, it was Warriors Orochi 3 that made me really like Ryu Hayabusa since I didn't expect to see him in the game at the time and never stopped playing has him. While he doesn't have that sort of cheeky charismatic personality that a lot of characters in the same sort of "character action games" genre do like Dante does, I find Hayabusa to be a way better pick for a 2nd Hack n Slash rep in Smash because unlike Dante his personality contrasts a lot more to Bayonetta, who happens to be a very cheeky and self aware character from a hack n Slasher. He's a super serious and hardened ninja determined to stop all forces of evil in a setting where the world is wacky and ridiculous, and I find the idea of him in Smash to be a lot more charming than a lot of other characters in the same sort of action games genre. While he's been in a few Warriors crossovers, I don't think he's ever been in a crossover that wasn't from any of Koei-Tecmo's games, and it would be a dream come true for me to see him in Smash. He'll complete Smash's NES Saga and would definitely be my main no matter how hard of a character he'd be to play.

-------------------------------
Predictions:
Shantae and the 45 degree Xbox window: 10%

Layton: 13%
-------------------------------
Noms: Zhao Yun x5

 

[Troykv]

I'll abstain of voting for Chosen Undead because I don't have idea of what I would say about them xD

Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 35%

This is an interesting case; I don't have a lot of knowledge about the Ryu H. fan demand, but I can see several reasons to consider it's inclussion in Smash, being from a franchise with serionity that had inspired other games along with the rest of popular NES Games. He stil appears recently in the form of a fighting game, and well, it's essencially the most well known character of Tecmo; which is one of the few big companies that hasn't been represented in Smash... So it's completely possible.

Want: 55%

I like the old Ninja Gaiden games, and I can see some fun tools being part of his moveset.

____

Predictions;

Shantae: 11.1%
Profesor Layton: 21.4%

Nominations:

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5

 

[Neosonic97]

Ryu Hayabusa... again

Chance: 45%

Want: 50%

All I can say on both my chance and my want is that my feelings on Mr. Hayabusa haven't changed one bit. My want and chance ratings are still the exact same as they were back in April, when we last rated Hayabusa.

YOU DIED

Chance: 10%
While Dark Souls is fairly popular and it's one of few non first-party franchises to get an Amiibo, that's about it. Even then, it was Solaire who got an Amiibo. I mean, it's better than nothing, but still...

Want: Abstain.
Again, another of those games who I just don't have my feelings straight on. Expect to see this rating a lot for game series I'm unfamiliar with (and even some I am).

Noms: Reimu rerate x5.

 

[ze9]

Ryu 2
Chance: 40%
His chances don't look too bad to me. DLC characters so far have been picked from Nintendo's 3rd party partners on the Switch (Atlus/Sega, Square and Microsoft) and Koei/Tecmo is certainly one of the biggest contributors, since they developed Hyrule Warriors and they're even helping with Three Houses. Also, they're not necessarily picking the "right now hot on the Switch" characters for each of these companies, if Banjo and Joker are any indication (the DQ heroes fit the bill, but I think they would have gotten in regardless).
And Ninja Gaiden is easily Tecmo's biggest franchise. So, if we get one character from them, it's going to be Ryu.
Though I'm not sure if Ninja Gaiden has the same clout as something like Megaman or Castlevania. I think it's defintely one tier below those two franchises... So I'll put his chances down from 50% to 40%. Still pretty good, though.

Want: 30%
Meh. I find him to be pretty boring and he doesn't strike me as being particularly unique. Also, I usually dislike ninja-like playstyles in Smash so he wouldn't really be my cup of tea. Still, he's not too bad and he has some requests. So he would be ok. And I played a bit of the first NG and I found it to be a fine enough game. Whatever. I got Banjo, everyone's fine.

Chosen Undead
Chance: 30%
Not sure on this. Namco may get another character, but I think Heihachi is way more likely. Though, after him, I think someone from Dark Souls would be the most likely. I'm not really sure, though.

Want: 75%
Hell yes. Dark Souls is awesome, and it would fit in Smash in just that weird-but-actually-perfect way. Chosen Undead is also the best possible new Namco character, by far. And just think of the stage. I'd be down for him.

Sora has more of a presence on Nintendo than Cloud or Joker.

Yeah I know, those were two separate statements. He's no Banjo, and even no Megaman. He's not classic like Cloud and Snake and not kinda underground like Joker. He's mainstream in a way I don't like.

 

[MrUndy]

Prediction: Both 5.5%

Now I regret giving them percentage that low.

Ryu the Second

chances: 50%

Ninja Gaiden series wasn't referenced in Smash games before, he fits the category of Fighter Pass characters. His history with Nintendo started since NES, he can join the list of classic characters such as Simon.
He's most likely newcomer.
Sorry, can't say that much.

Want: 0%
I haven't played any Ninja Gaiden games. Maybe I will try when I'll be able to.

-"Is he a zombie?"
-"Yes and no."

Chances: 35%

He's not that unlikely IMO. He would be a new to Smash Ultimate like Ryu. He doesn't have high fan demand, but I feel a Dark Souls character is quite possible.
And again, can't say more.

Want: 30%

I would really like to see a DS character. With so much items and weapons he would good character with decent moveset. But I would prefer Solaire more tbh.

Prediction:
Shantae 23.05% (The next day will be so exciting!)
Layton ???% I have literary zero knowledge of that character.

Noms:
Gordon Freeman x3
Sans rerate x2

 

[Ornl]

Ryu Hayabusa
Chance: 2,5% - Want: abstain
I know the good points. But Ryu Hayabusa has some disadvantages: sales (for a series of published in the West), series related to blood and big (•)(•), Bayonetta is already a hack and slash m-rated character with leather and "demons", Belmont and Hero are already 2 new third party characters from the NES. I doubt that the gameplay has better to offer than typical ninja attacks and swordsman, it should be more original than Sheik and Greninja, and as original as the other new "demon" hunters Belmont and Joker.

Chosen Undead
Chance: 5% - Want: abstain
The series is very well sold with few episodes, and so in my opinion the best refreshing choice from Bamco. There is potential for a different gameplay. There is potential for fun through self-mockery (like Snake's cardboard) with dead and Solaire. Chosen Undead doesn't have to be iconic (Joker isn't the icon of the Persona series, Hero isn't Slime, Banjo is less famous than Steve/Master Chief). But Belmont has just been chosen to represent dark fantasy. In my opinion, this is the most major obstacle.

Nominations: Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) 5

 

[3DSNinja]

Okay, honestly Ornl your points don't make sense. They aren't going to not pick Hayubusa because "Oh s*** we already have two 3rd party NES characters. "Your point just make no sense because honestly that just say that x character is unlikely due to y character being similar in some way. I just disagree immensly. Also, there is absolutely no way Chosen Undead is more likely then Hayubusa. Iconicity is a factor which heavily favors Ryu.

 

[BowserKing]

Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 20 to 25%

Fits the classic character role, but there is a lot of competition. Besides that point, the franchise would be a surprising one.

Want: 50%. While he has the same first name as Ryu, and is a ninja like Sheik and Greninja, he would be a fun character to play. That is all I have to say about this.

Chosen Undead

Chance: 20 to 21%. Fits the unexpected character role. And of course, competition would still be fierce.

Want: 50%. Don't know too much about this franchise. However, the character would be fun to play.

Noms: 2 for Urbosa and 3 for Concept: Grookey's Final Evolution

 

[Ornl]

Okay, honestly Ornl your points don't make sense. They aren't going to not pick Hayubusa because "Oh s*** we already have two 3rd party NES characters."

Sakurai said : "Smash tend to have characters from older series. But just old characters wouldn’t make Smash worthy. If there is no new series, then the selection of the characters will be from the old series." Despite the many inconsistencies in Sakurai's statements, I take them into consideration to cast doubt.

Also, there is absolutely no way Chosen Undead is more likely then Hayubusa. Iconicity is a factor which heavily favors Ryu.

Why evaluate Chosen Undead, if he has "absolutely" less chances than Ryu Hayubusa?

 

[3BitSaurus]

Ryu Hayabusa
Chance: 50%
With Tecmo having content in Ultimate's base game, Ninja Gaiden being one of the last big NES-era icons not in Smash yet and his biggest competition coming from either Warriors or DoA, both of which have more cons than him, his chances are better than ever. If Koei Tecmo gets a character, Hayabusa is the uncontested number one contender in my opinion.

The problem comes from him being mostly seen as a retro character. I don't know what his chances will be with Banjo already in the FP. And Banjo got in because of his massive support base, which is not something Hayabusa has. Even so, he's one of the most likely candidates aside from the already-discussed Resident Evil, Ace Attorney, Tekken and Tales characters.

Want: 40%
I've only played the original Ninja Gaiden, but I feel Ryu could become really interesting if they mixed his old moves with his hack-and-slash era ones, maybe even pull some moves from DoA. Overall, I guess he could be pretty interesting as a character, though there is a number of third-parties I'd like before him.

Chosen Undead
Chance: 20%
Dark Souls is one of the gaming icons of this decade, so the series has certainly earned its spot in terms of notoriety. In regards to playstyle. a defensive character that waits for the right opportunity to strike could certainly be made interesting. I do question how recognizable the Chosen Undead is in relation to other player avatars, but I don't think that's ever stopped a character.

The issue with this one is that I can't personally see anything that would make Sakurai go for him specifically. Like... the character doesn't have many cons, but in my opinion they don't have much pros either.

Want: 15%
As I have already mentioned, the playstyle could certainly be interesting, but I'd say I have bigger priorities in terms of 3rd parties. Even when it comes to sword characters. I think a boss for the next Smash game would be really good, though.

Predictions
Shantae: 25%
Professor Layton: 45%

Nominations
Kyo Kusanagi x5

 

[Nquoid]

Ryu Hayabusa
Chance: 75%
Want: 35%

I genuinely think Ryu Hayabusa is the most likely character we have at this point. Considering Koei Tecmo is the only notable third party company to have an assist trophy in the game and no playable fighter, I wouldn't be surprised if they might make more money having Ryu on the DLC. Along with that; Team Ninja have made Metroid: Other M, Hyrule Warriors, Fire Emblem Warriors and Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3 for Nintendo. Double Dragon and Ninja Gaiden are probably the two biggest NES franchises that haven't appeared in Smash yet, and Arc System Works don't have a deal in place like KT yet to make it a little easier.

Both characters today are from franchises I wish I could have more interest in, but I suck at those high difficulty methodical games. But Ninja Gaiden was on of the games that made me vaguely want an xbox back in the day, and it'd be fun to have a proper ninja in the game. I don't have a lot of love for the character beyond him looking cool and ticking a lot of my criteria box for being in Smash, but there's definitely characters I'd prefer

Chosen Undead
Chance: 20%
Want: 10%

The two big things standing in the way of any Souls rep is the fact that Namco has at least two franchises that are better fits for Smash and that the gameplay style of Dark Souls is the antithesis of Smash gameplay. Souls is tactical and methodical. Smash at a high level can be that, but Smash is a party fighter first and foremost. Sure they could make them slow and heavy but that's not really replicated the gameplay. Or they could introduce the souls mechanic and have the player be weaker after being knocked off the stage and stronger once they've reclaimed their souls. But yeah, Namco have a lot of competition for the slot and Dark Souls would be harder to translate than Heihachi I imagine.

God I wish I could get into Dark Souls. The lore stuff sounds right up my alley. And I keep almost getting them (I was *this* close to picking up Sekiro) but something about them feels so daunting. So this score is partly me not playing them and partly me not wanting them to be good in Smash so that I don't feel obligated to pick up a game that will kick my arse for several months.

Sakurai said : "Smash tend to have characters from older series. But just old characters wouldn’t make Smash worthy. If there is no new series, then the selection of the characters will be from the old series." Despite the many inconsistencies in Sakurai's statements, I take them into consideration to cast doubt.

Why evaluate Chosen Undead, if he has "absolutely" less chances than Ryu Hayubusa?

But the DLC so far has been Persona 5, Dragon Quest XI and Banjo Kazooie. Clearly there's a balance being attempted and regardless, Ninja Gaiden and Dark Souls wouldn't be in direct competition for the same slot. "I can't put in Ryu because Chosen Undead exists" makes no sense.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Ryu 2
Chance: 10%
Still makes sense but it's getting a bit down to the wire now honestly and I don't know if Ninja Gaiden is big enough to be held to the standards of the fighter pass characters we have so far. I can think of numerous other characters that would give bigger reactions.

Want: 5%
No offense but with just two spots left Hayabusa wouldn't be that hype imo. I wouldn't be mad but he'd just feel a little bit bland at this point.

The dark souls of character inclusions
Chance: 15%
Dark Souls can be considered pretty mainstream (in the west anyway, I don't know about its status in Japan) and a character from that series could align with the 'Joker being emblematic' statement. I consider it Tales of's biggest competitor when it comes to Namco, tho I have to stress again they could very well not get anything at all.
A part of me does think Dark Souls' more atmospheric nature doesn't really combine that well with Smash Bros but hey, I'm not Sakurai.
I'm also aware there are other potential candidates able to rep this series but the Hero kinda proofs the player controlled character will almost always get in first.

Want: 5%
Again, not a third-party I personally want. Kind of iffy about Dark Souls in Smash in general.

Shantae: 14.70%
Layton: 30.86%
Gene x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

series related to blood and big (•)(•)

I love how you somehow invented the 'series related to blood and big ****' as if that's somehow a real category that anyone would take into consideration.

I doubt that the gameplay has better to offer than typical ninja attacks and swordsman

You'd be wrong, but then again nobody's ever expected you to actually play the games you talk about with these arguments.

Okay, honestly Ornl your points don't make sense. They aren't going to not pick Hayubusa because "Oh s*** we already have two 3rd party NES characters. "Your point just make no sense because honestly that just say that x character is unlikely due to y character being similar in some way. I just disagree immensly. Also, there is absolutely no way Chosen Undead is more likely then Hayubusa. Iconicity is a factor which heavily favors Ryu.

Welcome to my world.

Sakurai said : "Smash tend to have characters from older series. But just old characters wouldn’t make Smash worthy. If there is no new series, then the selection of the characters will be from the old series." Despite the many inconsistencies in Sakurai's statements, I take them into consideration to cast doubt.

And there's already a healthy mix of characters from different eras. Joker debuted in 2017 on the PS4. Banjo in the 90s on N64. And the Heroes vary, you got two from the NES, one from the PS2, and one from the PS4/3DS. So acting like there's such a saturation of NES characters that there won't be another is just wrong, and would appear to stem from a desire to be contrarian more than any actual argument.

 

[Ornl]

And there's already a healthy mix of characters from different eras. Joker debuted in 2017 on the PS4. Banjo in the 90s on N64. And the Heroes vary, you got two from the NES, one from the PS2, and one from the PS4/3DS. So acting like there's such a saturation of NES characters that there won't be another is just wrong, and would appear to stem from a desire to be contrarian more than any actual argument.

My basic sentence was: "Belmont and Hero are already 2 new third party characters from the NES". I politely responded to an aggressive judgment regarding this statement. I don't think it's useful to make ad-personam accusations (another aggressive judgment).

 

[GoodGrief741]

My basic sentence was: "Belmont and Hero are already 2 new third party characters from the NES". I politely responded to an aggressive judgment regarding this statement. I don't think it's useful to make ad-personam accusations (another aggressive judgment).

So what you're saying is, your original sentence meant nothing?

Well that's one thing we agree on then.

 

[Ornl]

So what you're saying is, your original sentence meant nothing?

Well that's one thing we agree on then.

This is the second time in a row that you have given me a false intention. I don't think it's useful to do it.

 

[GoodGrief741]

This is the second time in a row that you have given me a false intention. I don't think it's useful to do it.

I can only guess as to what your intentions might be, given that you're not good at conveying them.

 

[Ornl]

I can only guess as to what your intentions might be, given that you're not good at conveying them.

This is another ad-personam judgment to justify your previous ad-personam judgments.

 

[Nquoid]

This is another ad-personam judgment to justify your previous ad-personam judgments.

I wouldn't call you not conveying your ideas properly as an ad-personam judgment.

Quite often your scores come with incredibly arbitrary reasoning and things that have no basis in actual evidence. Like saying that genres are already represented when we already have 2 JPRG characters from modern games (the default Hero skin is from XI not from III). You can disagree with the characters put forward as favourites. But your reasoning often comes across as if you've made up what the criteria is yourself, which is more akin to a want score than chance score.

Like who are the characters you think are likely? Because you seem to disagree with all the speculation favourites.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

This is another ad-personam judgment to justify your previous ad-personam judgments.

The issue is he can't understand your point. He's aware you aren't good at making it clear, and is noting that. It could be said a bit better, admittedly, but he does want to understand what you actually mean. In the end, if he can't understand your point, then it's up to you to explain it more clearly. Whether he agrees or disagrees is irrelevant to that factor.

Also, if your reasoning is flawed to others, there is nothing wrong with them calling out the flaws as long as it's done in a respectable manner. As well as not dogpiling as is. We don't appreciate that, as it just makes users want to leave threads instead of participate in good faith. Bad arguments are not equal to arguing in bad faith, after all. You don't argue in bad faith, people just don't agree with the method you use. That's all it is.

 

[Calamitas]

Okay, let's see. . .

Insert a Funny Joke™ at the expense of Mr Ninjagaiden here
Chance: 45%
With how the DLC thus far is currently going, things are certainly going in his favour. Third-party, his company doesn't have a playable fighter yet, star of an NES game. But again, that's just with how the DLC is currently going. That alone isn't nowhere near enough for me to consider him all too likely.
Aside from that, where is the demand for him? Mega Man, Simon and Hero all had great followings asking for their inclusion before they came, while the vast majority of all support for Ninjagaidenguy only started when it began to look like the Fighter's Pass would be third-party only.
Want: 0%
Another third-party, another game series I have zero connection with, another character that to me doesn't look that interesting at first glance. Hard pass.

Every Soul has it's dark. It's always darkest before the soul!
Chance: 20%
Again, current DLC trends are favouring a Dark Souls character. But on the other hand. . . well, I'm not saying that there's no moveset potential, because there obviously is. But Sakurai and his team would have to get really creative to properly translate such an overall sluggish and methodical character into Smash and still have them be satisfying to use.
Want: 35%
I played the Switch version of Dark Souls Remastered, and I enjoyed it well enough. Unlike the vast majority of all other third-parties, I could live with a Dark Souls rep, though my feelings towards them are overall more of an indecisive shrug.

 

[Jomosensual]

Neither was Simon and yet here we are.

I remember there being demand for Simon, or at least way more than I've seen for Ryu. He wasn't top tier with the likes of Ridley, Banjo, K Rool, and Geno but I remember seeing a lot of people putting him in their most wanted lists after the first trailer dropped. I didnt' see anything close to that for Ryu until after Ultimate was released.

Fatal Frame is in Smash. That's a Tecmo franchise.

Ah, that's right. I stand corrected on that point then[/QUOTE]

 

[-crump-]

Hayubasa
Chance: 35%
He makes a lot of sense, but I’m still a bit iffy on his chances. Both he and his company have strong ties to Nintendo, and he would fit right in with Mega Man and Simon. However, I don’t recall ever seeing a huge amount of support for Ryu H. in past years, and his franchise (Ninja Gaiden) has been out of the spotlight for a while. I wouldn’t be suprised if he got in, but I’m not sure he fits with the kind of characters Nintendo seems to be going for with the Fighter Pass.

Want: 70%
Like I said, he’d fit right in with the other NES icons; he’s one of those characters that people subconsciously associate with Nintendo despite not being owned by them. I wouldn’t be jumping for joy if he got in, but as far as 3rd party characters go he’d definitely be a cool pick.

Chosen Undead
Chance: 30%
Dark Souls is a globally popular series, but the player character isn’t really much of a character at all. They also aren’t really an iconic face in gaming; when you think of Dark Souls, you think of the enemies and the setting, not the dude you’re controlling.
For that reason, I don’t think a Dark Souls character would be Nintendo or Namco’s first pick for a character addition.

Want: 5%
Boring, boring, boring. I’m not huge on blank-slate avatar characters in general, and Chosen Undead is the epitome of that trope. Even if they pulled out a ton of unique weapons and maneuvers from the DS series, I’d prefer Soliare just for the fact he has some semblance of personality.

 

[Ornl]

Quite often your scores come with incredibly arbitrary reasoning and things that have no basis in actual evidence.

My reasoning has no evidence like the majority of answers in this thread, since the ratings are based on intuitions. This doesn't justify judging the feelings of someone, especially against several people against him.

Like who are the characters you think are likely? Because you seem to disagree with all the speculation favourites.

This re-rate series follows a recent reflexion on most overrated characters. Ryu Hayabusa was seen by some viewers as an overrated character. This also concerns several characters re-rated previously. I agreed with many reviews. For the rest, I think I shouldn't have to justify myself.

The issue is he can't understand your point. He's aware you aren't good at making it clear, and is noting that. It could be said a bit better, admittedly, but he does want to understand what you actually mean. In the end, if he can't understand your point, then it's up to you to explain it more clearly. Whether he agrees or disagrees is irrelevant to that factor.

I don't encourage anyone to fulfill a request that has been expressed by violent communication. Degrading judgment shouldn't be encouraged.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I don't encourage anyone to fulfill a request that has been expressed by violent communication. Degrading judgment shouldn't be encouraged.

...I don't remember any kind of violent thing. People just are asking you to clarify.

If a post is being unreasonable about it, including threats, it should be reported. It's possible one of us missed a post. We've been working pretty hard at keeping this thread far more civil, after all. It doesn't mean we notice everything. We rely heavily on reports to take care of issues.

 

[SKX31]

First, a couple digressions (Spoilered):

Spoiler: Digression 1

Abstaining on Sora. While Disney has apparently stated that they'd be willing to cooperate, keep in mind they're trying to take over the world at the moment, so it may not be easy to negotiate with.

It's already happened, don't you know? I mean, Mickey Mau-Mouse's already in Paris!

Spoiler: Digression 2

And there's already a healthy mix of characters from different eras. Joker debuted in 2017 on the PS4. Banjo in the 90s on N64. And the Heroes vary, you got two from the NES, one from the PS2, and one from the PS4/3DS. So acting like there's such a saturation of NES characters that there won't be another is just wrong, and would appear to stem from a desire to be contrarian more than any actual argument.

It's just a matter of time until there are more PlayStation icons in Smash than in All Stars.

As if All Stars needed more unfortunate nails in its coffin.

Spoiler: Digression 3, also a comment I've been keeping in my head for a while

Though what would his stage be? Just Rome? Just having real ancient people in the background? Would the pope be a spirit? WOULD HIS UNCLE MARIO BE A SPIRIT? You know what I'll bump up the want meter by like 30% if the pope and Mario are spirits

Mario I would absolutely adore as a spirit. Not too sure if real ancient people could be background NPCs really.

The Pope as a Spirit? Umm... to expand on my "Why historical people are pretty much impossible as spirits" comment, I'll use that pope as an example:

That specific pope, Alexander VI (birth name Rodrigo Borja / Borgia when he moved to Italy) happens to be an incredibly infamous pope. He even has a TV Tropes page! Which is probably why he's Assassin Creed 2's bad guy. Now, professional historians have reevaluated him in recent years quite a bit. But there are a few points I think are neccessary (as those contribute to his infamy):

*As a massive oversimplification: one of the defining questions in Europe during the Middle Ages and Renessaince (up to 1650) was if the Pope or the Kings / other worldly rulers should have more power than the other - that question spawned loads of conflicts. Dante Alighieri (the Divine Comedy / Inferno guy) was involved in one of those conflicts, and condemned his political enemies to Hell - especially the Pope (Boniface VIII) who exiled him. Alexander VI's stuff didn't exactly help with that really when he involved himself heavily in Italian and European politics.

*He also had one infamous kid: Cesare. His family and the rumors surrounded them didn't help his image, really.

*1500s Italy was dominated by big powerful families. Not just the Borgias, but also the Medicis and the Sforzas. All three families, and others, engaged in some rather backstabby stuff.

In conclusion, he wasn't the nicest person. And although I don't think he was the perfect choice for AC2's villain, it makes sense.

But those reasons are enough to disqualify him as a Spirit: That question of "Repping an infamous Pope" is enough fodder to cause severe headaches, both for fans, professional historians and for Nintendo. Same goes for Napoleon, Nobunaga etc. who are in Nintendo-published games. Again, let them be.

Sure, that's one spirit less, but Ezio's potential Spirit list can easily consist of his family / fictional comrades and be perfectly fine. See Joker's Spirits, who are of his Phantom Thieves allies as well as Igor and his retinue. No bad guy there (as an aside, having Kamoshida, Madorama or any other as a spirit would be weird at best, creepy at worst).

Now onto the main course:

This ninja might bring his sword into this fight. Not PlayStation AllStars' though.* (Ryu Hayabusa):

Chance: 40 %

Aside from what everyone else has said:

I don't think it's just the NES legacy that helps him - the Xbox (and post-Xbox) games could help a lot when it comes to his moveset. While I've never played the Xbox games myself, they can easily serve as the basis for his attacks and recovery. For example, no other ninja has an insta-dash or grapple maneuvers - and while Greninja uses a water sword, it's for (rather inflexible) Smash attacks. Ryu though? His sword is his main weapon in both the NES games and the post-Xbox ones.

This could help create a very unique character and aid in his appeal. While Sheik and Greninja thrives off their speed and pressure game, Ryu could very easily stand out from those two not just because he's a swordie and has a grapple, but also because of his special weaponry can borrow from both eras. Fire shield? A vertical Ice storm? You've got it. You'd have to fight him differently than how you fight Sheik / Greninja.

That's not even considering his DoA moves. In short, this should not be ignored: Ryu could be built using moves from his NES, Xbox and DoA arsenals. That's a major boon since it gives much-needed flexibility; the Belmonts were built using attacks from both Simon's and Richter's games.

Want: 50 %

Perfectly happy if he gets in - his series needs a shot in the arm as it stands currently. Also, a nod to one of the first games with an actual story (the original NES Ninja Gaiden) would be really nice.

Spooky Scary Skeleton, getting up again (Chosen Undead):

Chance: 20 %

This goes with how I feel about a Dark Souls rep's chances, whether it's CU or Artorias. Or someone else like Solaire. Of course, I haven't played Dark Souls at all - but there are some elements that could work in their favor.

At first glance a more methodical, slow paced combat style doesn't seem to fit Smash at all. But there's new ground to break here. Defensive, grind-you-down styles have so far come mainly from zoners or characters like Puff / ICs who rely heavily on a strong, evasive air game or fishing for grabs respectively. While one could argue that characters like Ike already fill a defensive swordie niche, CU could take a step further. Stat-boosting via bottle drinking. Homing, but slow projectiles (Soul Arrows). Blocking and dodging as neede. And so on.

Is he going to be fun to fight? Depends on his execution really. It's really tricky to balance a defensive character - Dissidia's Exdeath is broken beyond belief in pro hands exactly because he can block all kinds of attacks and counter them; thing is, you need to time those blocks. CU's blocking should not be based around this IMHO - he can have a Shield Bash as a tripping tool, but most of his moveset shouldn't be based around this. Instead, his moveset should be balanced around weaving in-and-out of battle. Choosing when to play defense and offense.

Want: 35 %

Based purely on the fact that my big brother's a Dark Souls fan and a DS rep might actually rekindle his interest in Smash some. Hopes, after all.

Nominations: Lara Croft x5

*(One old PSASBR teaser screenshot apparently had him in the background. I can see the resemblance)

 

[GoodGrief741]

This is another ad-personam judgment to justify your previous ad-personam judgments.

Criticism isn't an ad hominem. Learn the difference, and learn to take criticism. I'm not attacking you as an individual, I'm attacking your actions: more specifically, your arguments, and the way you express them. If you think that's an ad hominem, you have no clue about debating or fallacies.

I remember there being demand for Simon, or at least way more than I've seen for Ryu. He wasn't top tier with the likes of Ridley, Banjo, K Rool, and Geno but I remember seeing a lot of people putting him in their most wanted lists after the first trailer dropped. I didnt' see anything close to that for Ryu until after Ultimate was released.

Simon's demand was there but it was really low-key, at least before Vergeben's leak. I'd say Ryu's support was more active pre-his own leak, if only because of Simon's inclusion.

This re-rate series follows a recent reflexion on most overrated characters.

No it doesn't. The characters rerated because of overrated/underrated were Bandana Dee, Phoenix Wright, Doomguy, Steve, the RE characters, Sans, and Celica.

 

[Ornl]

Criticism isn't an ad hominem. Learn the difference, and learn to take criticism. I'm not attacking you as an individual, I'm attacking your actions: more specifically, your arguments, and the way you express them. If you think that's an ad hominem, you have no clue about debating or fallacies.

"It would appear to stem from a desire to be contrarian more than any actual argument" ≠ criticism = ad personam judgment.
"you're saying is your original sentence meant nothing" ≠ criticism = ad personam judgment.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Guys, let's please take it to PM's or drop it. This is something that should be taken care of in private as there's some clear issues here that the Moderation may be needed to handle. I will gladly help both of you out to prevent further issues.

 

[Klimax]

Ryu Hayabusa:
Chances: 0% Ryu is probably the last NES icon (maybe also Mike Jones but his games are not well known) but people never really asked for him. Sure he could work and is iconic but I don't think he's likely. I don't feel I need to justify, it's like asking me why I think Mike Jones is not going to be playable. People don't care outside of an absolute minority.

Want: 100% Ninja Gaiden is an awesome franchise and has a huge legacy. Ryu is also great and could be great to play.


Chosen Undead
Chances: 0% People care about the games, not the "character". I don't see what this character could bring to the table.

Want: 0% I played Souls games and Sekiro because it's the kind of games you have to play (no one can deny the impact the franchise had over the past decade). Still, I never liked the games, don't like the gameplay and I don't want to waste time having to learn everything an enemy can do to defeat him.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 60%

He is the biggest mascot of the NES era not included in Smash yet and his games are famous (and infamous). He has moveset potential with shurikens, powerups and other abilities from the newer games. He has left a legacy and with Tecmo having a long history with Nintendo, even having an assist trophy from one of their other series, Fatal Frame, Ryu is a prime candidate for DLC and is probably Tecmo's most likely rep. The only concern I have is that Ninja Gaiden's popularity has dropped a bit in recent years, and also has only two appearances on Nintendo systems after the trilogy and the Gameboy game in the 90s. He is still relevant with the latest game only being 5 years old and a Wii U game a few years earlier. Still, I'm just concerned that he is not as relevant or popular as other japanese franchises like Resident Evil and Ace Attorney, which might take priority. And with only two slots left, he has heavy competition.

Want: 85%

The Ninja Gaiden trilogy is tied with the Castlevania trilogy as my favorite NES series. Ninja Gaiden is just so awesome and I would love to see how they implement Ryu into the game. Plus a remix of Unbreakable Determination would be dope.


Chosen Undead

Chance: 60%

I feel like people don't bring up Dark Souls enough, or take it seriously enough. It is a massively popular franchise these days (Dark Souls of "insert genre here" anybody?). It is owned by Bandai Namco who is notorious for not having a second character despite helping make the Smash games themselves. Chosen Undead has a variety of weapons and costumes at his disposal and if they want to dig deep, bring in elements from Bloodborne, a spiritual installment in the Dark Souls series which has additional weapons and costumes to take from. Undead's only threats are Heihachi and Lloyd Irving and while I don't want to go off-topic, I will say I don't see either of them happening. But what's interesting is that Sakurai once brought up Heihachi and said he was considered, but ultimately dropped him because of his slow movement. Who else has slow movement? Chosen Undead. He focuses on defensive strategies and moves generally slowly with only a roll to help him. Of course that statement from Sakurai is several years old now and he could very well have dropped that mindset. Still, the Street Fighter characters have taken up the fighting game spot, which is why I still think Chosen Undead is more likely than a Tekken character, and might even be the most likely Bandai Namco rep.

Speaking of defensive style, that could very well be what makes him unique and could potentially give him a spot on the roster. We already have characters that benefit from a defensive style, but not one that entirely focuses on blocking, dodging, and needs to look for weak spots in opponents patterns to succeed. I honestly don't know what that moveset would look like, but there is definitely potential there. As for other Dark Souls characters, I could see Artorias or another boss take the spot instead, though people mostly brought him up because of Google Theory which I don't trust anymore after Hero's reveal. Now for Solaire, all I'm gonna say is, he is generic, lacks good moveset potential, and I don't know why he is in contention or why people bring him up at all.

Want: 60%

Admittedly I'm not a fan of From Software's games (because I suck at them). However, I do like the universe of Dark Souls and I am intrigued on how Chosen Undead and Dark Souls would be handled in Smash Bros.

EDIT: Bloodborne is owned by Sony. I should have remembered that since I own the game. Also Sakurai never said Heihachi is too slow. I'll do better next time to fact check my posts before spreading information.

 

[GoodGrief741]

In related news, I just beat Ninja Gaiden again. I am happy.

Chosen Undead has a variety of weapons and costumes at his disposal and if they want to dig deep, bring in elements from Bloodborne, a spiritual installment in the Dark Souls series which has additional weapons and costumes to take from.

Bloodborne is owned by Sony, so it's unlikely that content will be included.

But what's interesting is that Sakurai once brought up Heihachi and said he was considered, but ultimately dropped him because of his slow

As far as I know, Sakurai dropped Heihachi because he couldn't get his moveset to work. This is the first I've heard of the slow movement part. You got a source for that?

 

[DanganZilla5]

My bad. Sakurai didn't say anything about the slow moving part. I got that idea because Heihachi is known to be slow in his games compared to the other characters, at least from what I heard. I'll do better next time by fact checking my posts before spreading information.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Ryu Hayabusa
Chance: 16%
Koei Tecmo/Team Ninja's mascot of sorts and one of the last true NES classic third parties.
I'm not as confident in his chances as everyone else is though as I personally think he has a bit of competition even within his company in the form of Kasumi and that KT may even get ignored despite the support they've given Nintendo...it didn't help Ubisoft get Rayman in as anything but a Spirit after all.

Want: 5%
I like Koei Tecmo, but Ninja Gaiden is only my third or fourth favourite series from them.
I'm a far bigger fan of the numerous Musou/Warriors games they put out and quite frankly at this point I'd prefer some of their Nintendo OCs to him such as Linkle or Lana/Cia since Zelda's desperate for new characters(that aren't another damn Link) and both would offer something fresh and exciting to the Zelda franchise with their crossbows/kicks and sorcery respectively.

In an ideal world we'd get their version of Impa as playable because honestly it's the best fusion of two character designs we've ever seen and really highlighted the characters importance in the franchise as Impa tends to be overlooked in most games outside Skyward Sword, Ocarina of Time and arguably Breath of the Wild. Ideally with the fire naginatas rather than the watery giant blade as it'd be a little more unique.
We'd also get their Ganondorf design in an ideal world as at least an alt because goddamn is that both an intimidating and awesome look.

After that...well I'd also prefer Kasumi from Dead or Alive as I see her as much of Koei Tecmo and Team Ninja's mascot as Ryu;
Apart from being the protagonist of the first two Dead or Alive games and the overall mascot of the series, she's also cameo'd in Ninja Gaiden, the Warriors games and been an obtainable monster in Monster Rancher all of which tends to make me personally think of her before Hayabusa when Koei is brought up.

Chosen Undead
Chance: 12%
Not as associated with Nintendo as say the Tales series is, but Dark Souls is one of the hottest games to have come out in the past decade to the point 'Nintendo Hard' has been rebranded as 'the Dark Souls of (insert genre)'.
Dark Souls recieved an Amiibo, something which very few third parties did, Shovel Knight being the only other non playable Smash character I can think of, but that was of the mascot rather than the Chosen Undead...who I feel might be slightly more likely.

Want: 45%
No real strong opinion on the Chosen Undead as a character other than I'd expect him to have the best damn roll dodge of any playable fighter if he got in.

I've played Dark Souls and whilst it's not really for me, it is masterfully crafted and I can understand why people love it.
Dark Souls as a series has done more than enough to warrant celebration and it only gets knocked down a few percentages because there are Namco franchises I'd personally prefer to see in Digimon and Klonoa but both are a little more niche than the absolute juggernaut that is Dark Souls.

Although bonus points for Sif, the giant wolf with a sword in her mouth which was both adorable, terrifying and hilarious in equal measures.
(I still can't believe Game Freak pinched the concept for Pokemon Sword)

Nominations: Lara Croft X 5