Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[RealPokeFan11]

Shantae - Chance: 0% - Want: abstain.
She has a profile similar to Banjo: ballot character, Western origin, no significant popularity in Japan, modest series, platform genre. But Banjo is already the ballot choice, and Shantae is already a Spirit.

Professor Layton - Chance: 7,5% - Want: 100% as an Assist Trophee.

Spoiler

View attachment 231755

Competition: forgotten minor characters
Professor Layton is one of those forgotten minor characters who form a sub-competition between them. He hasn’t always been a minor character, he has become so with declining sales. That's why he already has some advantage, he's one of the most important minor characters. He's also particularly recognizable by non-gamers, unlike many others! The other minor characters are the ones that don’t have many games in the series, or that don’t have a lot of sales on average IMO :
- 1st/2sd party series without Fighter (Rythm, Momotaro Dentetsu…),
- other Sega rep (Bayonetta and Joker are already Sega minor characters),
- other Konami rep (Simon is already Konami minor characters) ; Bomberman ≈ Professor Layton,
- other Capcom rep except Resident Evil, Monster Hunter and Dante ; Amaterasu ≈ Professor Layton,
- other Bamco rep except Mametchi and Tekken, including Tales and Dark Souls,
- other Squenix rep except Sora, Lara Croft and Hitman,
- Koei Tecmo rep,
- Marvelous rep,
- SNK rep,
- Indie rep,
- other Level 5 rep (sub-compétition),
- …

Competition: Level 5
Hershel Layton is one of Level 5 characters who form a sub-competition between them :
- Eight (Hero) is already a DLC Fighter created by Level 5,
- Inazuma Eleven is the most promoted by the Nintendo DREAM magazine,
- Yo-Kai Watch is becoming more popular with excellent sales, and Jibanyan competes with Pikachu gradually,
- Katrielle Layton succeeds her father in the latest Layton game.

Succes & Decline
The It’s true that the commercial and popular success of the first Layton game on NDS had been explosive in Europe. Satoru Iwata, former president of Nintendo, said the success of the game in Europe was probably due to the difference in packaging (:O ?). In Japan, Professor Layton and the Curious Village is also the second favorite game on NDS according to Famitsu readers, but half as much as Dragon Quest IX.
Even in decline, the series remained very prominent, and the average games sold is 1.9M per episode. But every game that has followed has always been less sold than the previous one. In the end, the first game sold 5.2M units, and the last game sold 0.6M units. Unfortunately, the move to the 3DS didn’t succeed the enthusiasm of the players.
Layton's future looks difficult and the series would needs Smash Bros. Nintendo could have tried to preserve his notoriety in Sm4sh, but he didn’t even give him a trophy. Now I think it’s possibly too late. While waiting for a new game, the series become adapted on Switch. This is a first step.

The real disadvantage
Layton has no definite inspiration to offer unique and different gameplay. According to Sakurai, any new character must display personality in their game. It’s important to have something only that character can do. Every character needs to have a reason to be in. The character’s individuality must be traited as its own game itself. Mii Fighters, Pac-Man and the Villager are three examples of characters that Sakurai initially decided were "unsuitable" for fighting. About, I don’t know how to give thanks to the genre puzzle/adventure in Smash Bros. To see Layton with a sword or an improvised weapon (like Peach/Dr. Mario) would be a non-creative facility. So I think he's in a bind, and that Hershel should be a good idea for a new Assist Trophee, like Bomberman.

View attachment 231756
The clue that matters to me
Professor Layton's logo is a top hat. The top hat is already used by Arsene and the representative pictogram of the Persona license. It appears that the thief was faster than the detective.

Nominations: Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) 5

There were a few other characters that made it thanks to the ballot, such as King K. Rool, Ridley, Simon, and more. Also, I don't think the top hat logos really matter.

Onto my ratings:

HOLY FISHPASTE, IT'S A WINDOW!

Chance: 5% (This is me being generous)
Want: 75%

I doubt this will happen mostly due to her being a spirit. I don't think spirits are immediate disconfirmation, (except for master spirits) but it severely hurts their chances in my opinion. Also the window theory is a load of BS. Matt Bozon loves to reference Smash quite a lot, and this is no exception. He was happy enough to have a spirit in the game, so I doubt she's making it over a stupid window. But who knows? We live in a world where air conditioning is "sexist", so really, ANYTHING can happen. I still don't think she's happening though.

It's a shame though, since I would love to have her included in the game, and she brings a lot to the table with her transformations. She also has a lot of good music and stage potential. Maybe next game.

Abstaining on Layton

Edelgard: 15.84%
Byleth: 14.57%
Claude: 1.32%
Dmitri: 1.02%

Heavy Weapons Guy x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Shantae

Chance: 10%

She is one of the most heavily requested indie characters and has a history with Nintendo. Judging from fan polls she probably did very well on the Smash Ballot, which is what Sakurai looked at for some of the newcomers. She has a lot going for her. However, her spirit hurts her chances so badly. The team would have already went to Shantae's developers to put her spirit in. They already have the rights to her (not 100% sure since I'm not entirely sure on how copyrights work in this situation), but they still didn't make her playable. My big issue with spirits is that they feel like Sakurai throwing a bone to the characters' fans, he thinks they are worthy to be in Smash, but not to the point of taking up a spot on the roster. Other than that, she is an indie character, which has no precedence in Smash yet, and she has competition from other indie characters like Hollow Knight and especially Sans. Overall, I think she is very unlikely.

Want: 55%

I've only played a couple minutes of one of her games and while I would prefer many, many characters over her, I would still like to see her get in because she is a cool character and her fans deserve it.


Professor Layton

Chance: 65%

He is a very interesting character to speculate. He has a lot going for him, and some things going against him. He is owned by Level 5, one of the ten biggest video game companies in Japan and Layton is currently Level 5's best selling franchise. The games are quite popular and have been published by Nintendo themselves for a long time, signaling a strong relationship between Level 5 and Nintendo. As for Layton himself, he has been shown to be able to put up a good fight and his moveset could revolve around objects from the puzzles, though they might have to be careful to avoid possible spoilers. I honestly have a hard time thinking of what specific attacks he could have, but Sakurai makes magic happen and we have characters like Wii Fit who turns exercise poses into attacks.

However, Layton has several obstacles. Most notably his main competitors from fellow Level 5 candidate Jibanyan and Capcom's very own Phoenix Wright, who takes up the same kind of niche as Layton. It's hard to say who Nintendo would take. Capcom already has plenty of content so they probably are easy to negotiate with, but they might want to branch out for more variety and choose Layton. Or choose Jibanyan with how successful and popular Yo-Kai Watch is. If you are wondering what my thoughts are about Mii Costume Theory, I don't trust it since Microsoft now has a character and for all we know the last 2 characters could be from brand new companies, so I won't take it into account. But I'm going off topic so in conclusion, Layton is a toss up. I personally see Phoenix as more likely because he has precedence for a moveset with MvC3, but I won't deny Layton has a good shot.

Want: 55%

Similar to Shantae. I only played one of the Layton games for a little bit and got most of my knowledge from my best friend who is a big Layton fan. I would like to see him get in for his style and personality, and to see my friend be happy. But again, there are many characters, including Phoenix, that I would prefer over Layton.

 

[GoodGrief741]

In fact, as far as I know, her and Risky Boots' Spirits are the only third-party Spirits that don't have any other form of content in Ultimate (aside from the indie games exclusive to Nintendo).

Don't forget Rayman!

Shantae - Chance: 0% - Want: abstain.
She has a profile similar to Banjo: ballot character, Western origin, no significant popularity in Japan, modest series, platform genre. But Banjo is already the ballot choice, and Shantae is already a Spirit.

Professor Layton - Chance: 7,5% - Want: 100% as an Assist Trophee.

Spoiler

View attachment 231755

Competition: forgotten minor characters
Professor Layton is one of those forgotten minor characters who form a sub-competition between them. He hasn’t always been a minor character, he has become so with declining sales. That's why he already has some advantage, he's one of the most important minor characters. He's also particularly recognizable by non-gamers, unlike many others! The other minor characters are the ones that don’t have many games in the series, or that don’t have a lot of sales on average IMO :
- 1st/2sd party series without Fighter (Rythm, Momotaro Dentetsu…),
- other Sega rep (Bayonetta and Joker are already Sega minor characters),
- other Konami rep (Simon is already Konami minor characters) ; Bomberman ≈ Professor Layton,
- other Capcom rep except Resident Evil, Monster Hunter and Dante ; Amaterasu ≈ Professor Layton,
- other Bamco rep except Mametchi and Tekken, including Tales and Dark Souls,
- other Squenix rep except Sora, Lara Croft and Hitman,
- Koei Tecmo rep,
- Marvelous rep,
- SNK rep,
- Indie rep,
- other Level 5 rep (sub-compétition),
- …

Competition: Level 5
Hershel Layton is one of Level 5 characters who form a sub-competition between them :
- Eight (Hero) is already a DLC Fighter created by Level 5,
- Inazuma Eleven is the most promoted by the Nintendo DREAM magazine,
- Yo-Kai Watch is becoming more popular with excellent sales, and Jibanyan competes with Pikachu gradually,
- Katrielle Layton succeeds her father in the latest Layton game.

Succes & Decline
The It’s true that the commercial and popular success of the first Layton game on NDS had been explosive in Europe. Satoru Iwata, former president of Nintendo, said the success of the game in Europe was probably due to the difference in packaging (:O ?). In Japan, Professor Layton and the Curious Village is also the second favorite game on NDS according to Famitsu readers, but half as much as Dragon Quest IX.
Even in decline, the series remained very prominent, and the average games sold is 1.9M per episode. But every game that has followed has always been less sold than the previous one. In the end, the first game sold 5.2M units, and the last game sold 0.6M units. Unfortunately, the move to the 3DS didn’t succeed the enthusiasm of the players.
Layton's future looks difficult and the series would needs Smash Bros. Nintendo could have tried to preserve his notoriety in Sm4sh, but he didn’t even give him a trophy. Now I think it’s possibly too late. While waiting for a new game, the series become adapted on Switch. This is a first step.

The real disadvantage
Layton has no definite inspiration to offer unique and different gameplay. According to Sakurai, any new character must display personality in their game. It’s important to have something only that character can do. Every character needs to have a reason to be in. The character’s individuality must be traited as its own game itself. Mii Fighters, Pac-Man and the Villager are three examples of characters that Sakurai initially decided were "unsuitable" for fighting. About, I don’t know how to give thanks to the genre puzzle/adventure in Smash Bros. To see Layton with a sword or an improvised weapon (like Peach/Dr. Mario) would be a non-creative facility. So I think he's in a bind, and that Hershel should be a good idea for a new Assist Trophee, like Bomberman.

View attachment 231756
The clue that matters to me
Professor Layton's logo is a top hat. The top hat is already used by Arsene and the representative pictogram of the Persona license. It appears that the thief was faster than the detective.

Nominations: Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) 5

-Layton is a forgotten minor character.
-Yo-Kai Watch is becoming more popular.
-Provides sales numbers without a source. (Remember kids, VGChartz is bogus!)
-Layton has nothing only he can do.
-Layton series logo is too similar to the Phantom Thieves' and that matters somehow.

I am now convinced that you come from a parallel dimension where this is all true.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Don't forget Rayman!

True... though, to be fair, he's a bit of a gray area, because of the Rabbids Spirits, which are in WoL because of their crossover with Mario, but that also originated in his franchise...

Man, I don't think there's an easy way to explain that one. But yeah, for all intents and purposes, you're right.

-Layton is a forgotten minor character.
-Yo-Kai Watch is becoming more popular.
-Provides sales numbers without a source. (Remember kids, VGChartz is bogus!)
-Layton has nothing only he can do.
-Layton series logo is too similar to the Phantom Thieves' and that matters somehow.

I am now convinced that you come from a parallel dimension where this is all true.

Though you could have worded it better, I found this strange about Ornl 's post too.

Layton is literally L5's top dog as of now, YKW is slowly losing popularity and if logo similarity mattered, we wouldn't have Snake, because his original logo in Brawl was also a fox like the Star Fox characters (the FOXHOUND logo, I believe).

 

[Door Key Pig]

Have only played Shantae games sooooo

Just because you try hard Wayforward, doesn't mean Shantae will make it into battle!

Chance: 1.5%

Well, Matt had that tweet for "#MakeShantaeFouroftheFiveSmashDLC" or whatever openly after Smash DLC was revealed to be a thing and she's already a bunch of 3rd-party negotiated spirits Wayforward seems pleased with, so unless there was some trickery and further negotiation after the spirits going on it's not looking good. Add to that her... existent..? popularity in Japan and yikes. Even as a hypothetical second wave fellow, doesn't seem to be a big front runner in demand even as far as Westies go? An indie character would be pretty cool as representation, and Shantae is way more Nintendo-related and historically present w/ multiple games unlike Shovel Knight and Oh-God-why-are-people-legitimately-entertaining-the-idea-of-this-series-getting-into-Smash. And I'll give you that Shovel Knight was somehow the first totally Western character to appear on the battlefield (but he was also Nintendo-distributed in Japan, right?) But hell man, we're barely getting any Western icons in here as it is, and Steve (as iffy as that indie-ness is) and Travis Touchdown are already out, so that's a lot of money to dedicate to some characters some guys own that there's some support for.

Want: 60% or so

I like Shantae's MetroidVania games, and it'd be totally neat to make that part of Super Smash Bros Crusade official. And I'd rather she (or Travis or Quote or Steve I guess) be the hypothetical Indie rep than one game wonder flash in the pans and Oh-God-why-are-people-legitimately-entertaining-the-idea-of-this-series-getting-into-Smash.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

I am now convinced that you come from a parallel dimension where this is all true.

Don't forget he said that PIKACHU, a character that's been in the game since Smash 64, serves as competition for Jibanyan.

And Eight was made by Level 5, not Square Enix...

I think he lives in an undiscovered pocket dimension in Ultra Space.

 

[Ornl]

-Layton is a forgotten minor character.
-Yo-Kai Watch is becoming more popular.
-Provides sales numbers without a source. (Remember kids, VGChartz is bogus!)
-Layton has nothing only he can do.
-Layton series logo is too similar to the Phantom Thieves' and that matters somehow.
I am now convinced that you come from a parallel dimension where this is all true.

You still react to my personal opinion in a degrading way (with distorted ideas again) that can harm the person. It's a dangerous method that can call for public linting, such as this reaction:

Don't forget he said that PIKACHU, a character that's been in the game since Smash 64, serves as competition for Jibanyan.
And Eight was made by Level 5, not Square Enix...
I think he lives in an undiscovered pocket dimension in Ultra Space.

we wouldn't have Snake, because his original logo in Brawl was also a fox like the Star Fox characters (the FOXHOUND logo, I believe).

Fox and Snake didn't appear in the same "Fighter Pass", and the Snake logo was changed. This is what proves that logos can overlap. Joker didn't need a hat in his logo because the mask would have been enough. But he took it.

 

[Curious Villager]

Fox and Snake didn't appear in the same "Fighter Pass", and the Snake logo was changed. This is what proves that logos can overlap. Joker didn't need a hat in his logo because the mask would have been enough. But he took it.

Are we really using logo's now to discredit potential characters? Persona's logo isn't even anywhere near similar to Layton's logo aside from the use of a top hat.

Snake's icon was changed because the original was tied into Kojima productions, who is no longer a part of Konami, not because it was too similar to Starfox.
Also, both Street Fighter and Final Fantasy just used the first initials of their series for their series icons, and both those characters appeared as DLC in the last game.

So no, I highly doubt Persona's series icon disconfirms Layton from Smash Ultimate just because he would highly likely also use the series top hat symbol for his icon.

 

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

Edit: nevermind Curious Villager already said exactly what I was going to say, don’t want to clog up the thread.

 

[zferolie]

The guy does know the snake icon was changed most likely due to the association to kojima right?

 

[Ornl]

Are we really using logo's now to discredit potential characters? Persona's logo isn't even anywhere near similar to Layton's logo aside from the use of a top hat.

Snake's icon was changed because the original was tied into Kojima productions, who is no longer a part of Konami, not because it was too similar to Starfox.
Also, both Street Fighter and Final Fantasy just used the first initials of their series for their series icons, and both those characters appeared as DLC in the last game.

So no, I highly doubt Persona's series icon disconfirms Layton from Smash Ultimate just because he would highly likely also use the series top hat symbol for his icon.

The comparison with Snake or FF/SF doesn't take into account the appearance of the characters.
Arsene is recognizable in part because of he has disproportionate hat.
Hershel is recognizable in part because of he has disproportionate hat.
So much the better if no one feels that this characteristic and identity point doesn't represent an obstacle. My personal opinion remains a personal opinion.

 

[Curious Villager]

The comparison with Snake or FF/SF doesn't take into account the appearance of the characters.
Arsene is recognizable in part because of he has disproportionate hat.
Hershel is recognizable in part because of he has disproportionate hat.
So much the better if no one feels that this characteristic and identity point doesn't represent an obstacle. My personal opinion remains a personal opinion.

I mean, one is a hat at an angle with a flame underneath. The other is a straight hat within a circle and a giant L slapped in the middle.
But alright, lets agree to disagree then.

 

[Shinuto]

"Don't worry guys, here's how Shantae can still win"
Chance: 0%
They have already acknowledged her existence through a Spirit. Why would she be anything more? I've already gone over how being a Spirit is a death sentence if you're a third-party. And atleast the likes of Geno and Rayman have been requested for way longer and are owned by bigger studios. Why would Shantae get in as a supposed indie rep when Shovel Knight (whose single game made much more of a splash than any of Shantae's) only got to be an Assist at most? Her games don't sell that well and lacks Japanese popularity. (I've heard it's growing but it's likely too late for that now and I doubt it would be enough anyway) Not to mention all the competition for the last two spots, including a certain indie rpg the Shantae series wishes it would ever be as popular as. Also, no Shantae 5 won't help her out that much and the "Smash window" likely means jack. No amount of wishes could have Shantae be in the fighter pass still.

Want: 0%
I have never played a Shantae game and there are other potential Indie characters I'd much rather have, such as the Hollow Knight or an Undertale rep. Heck, if I had the choice to upgrade either her or Shovel Knight, I'd go for shovelry anyday.

And again, I don't usually mention character's supportbases but why do Shantae fans always seem like the fanbase least accepting of their character's deconfirmation? Sounds hypocritical being a Dee supporter but atleast we acknowledge our character's pretty unlikely at the moment, even if some of us haven't totally lost hope, besides we also don't point at very minor stuff such as a window vaguely resembling the Smash logo and see it as a confirmation.

I have nothing to say on Layton atm, abstaining

Byleth: 6.43%
Edelgard: 5.12%
Dimitri: 0.74%
Claude: 0.57%
Adeline x5

Because WF has yet to come out and deconfirm her like many other characters with their companies and no ones really pointing at the window as serious hint, some are but they are a minority. Most people I see bring it up purely due to it being a current point of interest that can lea into further discussion.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Similarity between icons mean absolutely NOTHING when there are two characters with the name Roy on the roster. Even on the Sound's Music Section, there are two sections with the exact same Mario Icon adjacent to each other, one for Main Mario and one for Mario Kart, and that's one of the most conspicuous uses of icons in the game.

I highly doubt Sakurai would reject a character for a reason as insignificant as that.

 

[RoboFist]

I literally have never posted on these boards before, but I just discovered this thread a few weeks ago and I have some thoughts on the characters on the chopping block today:

Miss Indie Rep 2020

Chance: 9%

In my personal, individual, incredibly humble opinion, Shantae is in the higher tier of indie characters who could squeeze their way into this franchise eventually. Her moveset is there, her playstyle would be unique, her cartoony design would add a lot of fun flair to a roster that was dangerously close to becoming overcrowded with realistic characters in Smash 4, and her fanbase is loyal and loud. As a lot of people have stated, she's called Nintendo her home right up until Half-Genie Hero, which far too few indie characters can claim. Aside from Shovel Knight, who got his time to shine in 3D as an AT, she's the only indie rep who was given the honor of being represented by two separate Spirits (one of which was prominently displayed in the World of Light trailer during one of the most anticipated Smash Directs of all time). And again, while I know this doesn't mean much, a whopping EIGHT of the top custom stages are inspired by her franchise (granted, they're all mostly pin-ups...). Many of those stages were built by Japanese players, and with the Studio TRIGGER collaboration leading up to Shantae 5, there's little doubt that Shantae has a much bigger following in the West than at least I originally thought.

So there's no doubt that Nintendo is very aware of Shantae and how popular she is as an independent request. Again, I think she's an absolute shoe-in for either the base roster or DLC...

...of the next game. Unfortunately, with two slots left in this Fighter's Pack, her appearance as a Spirit, and the fact that there are still many AAA third-parties that seem like a much more likely fit, my favorite hair-whipping, animal-transforming, belly-dancing magical girl is more than likely not making it into Smash Ultimate. I gave her 9% because I know how consistently high she scored on fan polls, and while the DLC was decided before the game was even released, it's possible-but-not-probable that Nintendo decided to choose her as Smash's first indie fighter regardless.

Want: 95%

The second I discovered Shantae and how downright charming her entire franchise was, I've wanted her in Smash. I can visualize her playstyle so easily. I know that Sakurai is always looking for characters who play in a unique way, and I really think that Shantae would fit that bill. In terms of indie reps, she's firmly planted herself at the very tip-top of my list, and I know I'm in the minority here, but I think she deserves it.

That being said, I've wanted Banjo and Kazooie to join the roster since the Smash 64 days, and now that I've got them, I really can't ask for anyone else 100% anymore. Still, out of all the potential newcomers post-Banjo, she's the only one I could see going absolutely nuts over again.

"PROFESSAH!!"

Chance: 14%

He's not an impossible choice, I guess. To my knowledge, all of his games have been on the DS/3DS, and I know he's got a pretty big cult following. He's obviously far from Level-5's biggest property, but he's got the slight advantage of being familiar in both the East and the West. I know a lot of people immediately dismiss him because of his lack of potential moveset, but you guys forget that Sakurai and his team was able to turn the Ice Climbers, Villager, Wii Fit Trainer, Duck Hunt, and Piranha Plant into viable fighters. Sakurai is a madman and nobody is safe from his grasp.

Unfortunately, while he does have a cult following, I can't imagine Layton being enormous enough to draw in anyone who wasn't already a fan of his games. He's simply not big enough to be considered an icon, hasn't left a large enough impact to be considered a legacy pick, and isn't relevant enough to appease younger or more modern gamers. On top of all that, he's not goofy enough to be a "joke character" with a wacky moveset like Phoenix Wright potentially could be. If he's ever going to get into Smash, I'm guessing he'd have to be a base roster pick.

Want: 2%

I've played the Professor Layton games and enjoyed them enough, but that doesn't automatically mean I think he'd be an appropriate fit for Smash. I'm giving him 2% just because I'd be morbidly curious to see what Sakurai could make of him, but I don't think I'd ever see him as anything more than a boring face on the select screen.

Tetromino x5

 

[Deleted member]

Shantae

Chance: 0%
I don’t see her in this pass but if there were a spirit upgrade pass then I can at least see her in

Want: 100%
She would be a perfect indie rep with her moveset potential and history with Nintendo.

 

[Vrbtm]

Why is Shantae considered an indie character?

Her first game was on the Game Boy Color, and it was published by Capcom. That doesn't seem very indie to me.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Why is Shantae considered an indie character?

Her first game was on the Game Boy Color, and it was published by Capcom. That doesn't seem very indie to me.

The rest of her games are just from Way Forward.

 

[Vrbtm]

The rest of her games are just from Way Forward.

Yeah, after getting that initial leg up.

Is Nintendo an indie just because they publish their own games too sometimes?

 

[TheCJBrine]

Yeah, after getting that initial leg up.

Is Nintendo an indie just because they publish their own games too sometimes?

I don’t know, Shantae’s company is small like Shovel Knight’s, and her first game didn’t do all that well. It’s not like Capcom’s own devs created it or they own it.

 

[StormC]

Pretty sure WayForward consider themselves an indie company and Shantae an indie series. Shovel Knight was published by Nintendo in Japan, doesn't make it not an indie game.

 

[Vrbtm]

Pretty sure WayForward consider themselves an indie company and Shantae an indie series. Shovel Knight was published by Nintendo in Japan, doesn't make it not an indie game.

Was that already after Shovel Knight had been out? Because I wouldn't count that anyway.

And again, I'm not sure why WayForward would consider themselves indie. What other indies can say that they have a successful Game Boy Color game?

 

[Icedragonadam]

Shantae looking out the Window

Chance: 0.01%

She's pretty much out since launch. It's pretty clear that Spirits and Spirit battles are consolation prizes, considering the information about when the DLC fighters were planned. So Shantae needs that miracle to even be considered.

Want: 1%

Yeah, I'm not a fan of her. In terms of Indie characters, my personal pick is Reimu or Marisa.

Professor Layton

Chance: 10%

He's a cult classic favorite and fits the bill of a darkhorse pick. However with 2 spots remaining and tough competition from the likes of Resident Evil, Tales, Crash etc, he's not that probable to be honest.

Want: 60%

It would be nice to have a puzzle rep. Either Layton or Puyo Puyo's Arle Nadja would be fine.

Three Houses Prediction, no Make it four Houses instead.

Edelgard: 12.44%
Byleth: 10.33%
Dmitri: 1.55%
Claude: 1.33%

Nominate Velvet Crowe x5

 

[StormC]

Was that already after Shovel Knight had been out? Because I wouldn't count that anyway.

And again, I'm not sure why WayForward would consider themselves indie. What other indies can say that they have a successful Game Boy Color game?

Shantae wasn't successful, it bombed. If you check the 3DS "indie" section, Shantae is listed.

 

[Vrbtm]

Shantae wasn't successful, it bombed.

Bombed so hard that people want her as a character in Smash.

If you check the 3DS "indie" section, Shantae is listed.

Well that's dumb.

 

[Kotor]

And again, I'm not sure why WayForward would consider themselves indie. What other indies can say that they have a successful Game Boy Color game?

Coming out on the Game Boy Color one year after the release of the Game Boy Advance, and bombing so hard, the series falls to obscurity for eight years isn't something I'd call a success.

 

[GoodGrief741]

You still react to my personal opinion in a degrading way (with distorted ideas again) that can harm the person.

I didn't react to your opinion, I reacted to you spouting blatantly and verifiably untrue facts. I could have just said that you need to fact check, but then again you would have probably taken that as a personal attack as well.

Bombed so hard that people want her as a character in Smash.

People want her as a character in Smash because of the newer games, the first one bombed.

 

[Sari]

Bombed so hard that people want her as a character in Smash.

Only after WayForward revitalized the series with Risky's Revenge and Pirate's Curse about a decade later.

 

[StormC]

Bombed so hard that people want her as a character in Smash.

She's obviously had more successful games since then. The original game had 25k prints. It was a big fat bomb.

Well that's dumb.

Because it proves your argument wrong?

 

[Vrbtm]

Coming out on the Game Boy Color one year after the release of the Game Boy Advance, and bombing so hard, the series falls to obscurity for eight years isn't something I'd call an accomplishment.

I would.

Again, how many small-time indie developers even manage to land their game on a Nintendo platform? It's too easy to get your game on Steam these days. That's not an accomplishment.

Because it proves your argument wrong?

Nope, because it means it should be relabeled. They made a mistake. Sometimes people do that.

Only after WayForward revitalized the series with Risky's Revenge and Pirate's Curse about a decade later.

I was hearing about Shantae before these games even existed.

 

[StormC]

Nope, because it means it should be relabeled. They made a mistake. Sometimes people do that.

Is this where we're at now?

Here's a person from WayForward in a "Nindies" video. If you're still arguing otherwise then you are simply choosing to ignore the facts.

I was hearing about Shantae before these games even existed.

So? I did too. Doesn't change the facts that it bombed and the series was untouched for a decade.

 

[Vrbtm]

So? I did too. Doesn't change the facts that it bombed and the series was untouched for a decade.

So the definition of an indie game, to you, is a game that bombs.

Why?

 

[zferolie]

The first shantae only bombed sales wise. Critically it is priased as one of the best GBC games ever made. It only didnt do well.sales wise because it came out 1 year after the GBA, and capcom very poorly marketed it and released very few copies.

While the next shantae game didnt come out till the DSi, they were working on a GBA game, and Wayforward made a bunch of other games in the meantime. Wayforward is an independent game company that are hired by many companies to make smaller games or licensed games. Batman, the mummy, ducktales remake, and more were all made by wayforward.

So why dont you guys actually do some research before attacking a character. Jesus some of you are big ***holes it seems.

 

[StormC]

So the definition of an indie game, to you, is a game that bombs.

Why?

That's not what I'm saying at all. I was contesting your claim that Shantae wasn't indie because it had a successful Game Boy Color game... which it didn't.

 

[Vrbtm]

The first shantae only bombed sales wise. Critically it is priased as one of the best GBC games ever made. It only didnt do well.sales wise because it came out 1 year after the GBA, and capcom very poorly marketed it and released very few copies.

While the next shantae game didnt come out till the DSi, they were working on a GBA game, and Wayforward made a bunch of other games in the meantime. Wayforward is an independent game company that are hired by many companies to make smaller games or licensed games. Batman, the mummy, ducktales remake, and more were all made by wayforward.

So why dont you guys actually do some research before attacking a character. Jesus some of you are big ***holes it seems.

Who's "attacking" a character? I only asked why she's considered an indie, because having your game on a major system is the opposite of what indie means to me.

That's not what I'm saying at all. I was contesting your claim that Shantae wasn't indie because it had a successful Game Boy Color game... which it didn't.

Did you know that there's other ways of gauging success than sales?

 

[Nquoid]

Oh cool this guy is here too...

SHANTAE!
Chance: 5%
Want: 5%

She's a spirit in the base game. If she was on the DLC shortlist they could have just patched her out of the base game since DLC discussions were definitely happening before the game was finished. Also, Shovel Knight definitely got the better treatment in the game from the indie representatives. I think people put too much weight on the support she's received from her developers. They got her into the base game which is more than enough respect for the series.

Man, do we have to rally around this metroidvania series? Hollow Knight is literally right there! But yeah, Shantae games are fun, but definitely not the best of their genre. We already have Samus and Alucard (as an assist) if we get any other characters from this genre, I'd much rather them be someone who was doing something interesting with the formula than Shantae if we're going to get in the world of fighters representing genres.

Professor Layton:
Chance 15%
Want 15%

This and Ace Attorney were two of the third party franchises that really hit with the DS, they both definitely have the pedigree and represent consoles that are massively under represented in Smash. BUT, Level-5 don't feel like a lock to me. There are bigger fish in the pond of developers (Capcom, Bamco, Koei, Bethesda) and Level-5 already have a rep if we count Dragon Quest VIII. I don't think they're unworthy at all, but two final precious spots, there are more obvious candidates and one of them is from a studio with 3 fighters in Smash already.

Much like Ace Attorney this is a series I didn't get round to playing, but I've watched full plays of the first two games and they're so charming and wonderful that I think they'd be a great fit for Smash...just not when we have two rosters slots left. Layton is a great series, and one that would represent something very much missing in Smash. But if we're down to the two last picks and the previous picks have been critical darlings, massive sellers and long term wants. He really does have to full by the wayside in my long list of wants.

 

[StormC]

Did you know that there's other ways of gauging success than sales?

Not in any meaningful way when distinguishing what makes a game indie or not.

 

[Nquoid]

Who's "attacking" a character? I only asked why she's considered an indie, because having your game on a major system is the opposite of what indie means to me.

Did you know that there's other ways of gauging success than sales?

Indie game = from an independent studio. One that doesn't have backing from a big publisher.

WayForward retained the rights to Shantae, not Capcom, and then self published all other titles. Therefore indie.

Nothing at all to do with what system they're on. Minecraft was an independent game until Mojang was bought by Microsoft. It's also one of the best selling games of all time.

 

[zferolie]

Who's "attacking" a character? I only asked why she's considered an indie, because having your game on a major system is the opposite of what indie means to me.

Did you know that there's other ways of gauging success than sales?

You are coming off very passive aggressive. Not just you but some of the others here.

So by your definition Shovel knight isnt a indie character. Nquoid stole what i was going to say, that indie means independent developer. Wayforward has been in the busniess since 1990's, and still are just 1 studio doing their own games and being hired by other companies to make games. Wayforward is the biggest and longest running independent game companies in the qestern game industry. I feel that fact alone puts them way above every other indie company in terms of deserving the recognition and honor of getting into smash.

A spirit is great and dont get me wrong, its very honorable and great they got that. But saying thats all they deserve is downroght disrespectful to everyone working at that company.

 

[Deleted member]

Capcom Rep Purple Haired Dancing Belmont but with a Hair Whip

Chance: 0.5%

Much like Rayman and Geno, she's a spirit that appears in WoL. I don't really have anything else to add to that.

Want: 65%

I'm very picky with who I want to see in Smash, but she looks fine and would definitely fit Smash pretty well. I'd be okay with the idea of her in Smash since she does look the part for it and isn't obscure nor a 1 hit wonder. Not to mention the music is very good and would also fit for Smash.

I will say the louder a fanbase gets, it's probably going to make me want them less. Shantae may be 1 of the few exceptions to this since that window everyone was gushing about didn't really bother me, but only time will tell.
----------------------------------------
Layton

Chance: 37%

Level-5 is among the list of notable Japanese developers without an actual fighter in Smash, and the Professor Layton series sure is 1 of their biggest sellers, if not the biggest. Some would probably argue Professor Layton is obscure/niche, but I imagine the only reason they would say that is because the games never had a real presence on consoles with all the games being on handheld devices. The only other franchise in Smash that had a bigger presence on handheld devices is Pokemon, but even then, it's 1 of the biggest Nintendo franchises ever and had a few spinoffs on consoles. If anyone tries to hold any franchises that were exclusive to the DS/3DS on the same or higher level as Pokemon is, they would just get trampled incredibly hard. The popularity of Layton's games are probably way more comparable to the popularity of the Persona games before Joker was announced for Smash, so I do think Layton has a fairly good chance of being in.

However, the problem with putting Layton in the Fighter Pass (or any Level-5 character for that matter) would have to be where he'd be placed because I don't find him to be the kind of character that would be saved for last. Sure, you could bring up how Sakurai doesn't do the "saving the best for last" thing, but this isn't the base roster we're talking about. Smash 4's last DLC character was Bayonetta because she was the overall ballot winner, so it's easy to see why she was the last character revealed and not Cloud. Don't get me wrong, the Professor Layton games are definitely popular and sold very well, but I don't really find him to be the kind of character Nintendo would place at the 5th Fighter Pack. The best spot for Layton as it stands currently is the 4th Fighter Pack, but even then, I sorta believe if he was going to be in the Fighter Pass, he'd be in 1 of the earlier Fighter Packs (most specifically the 2nd Fighter Pack). There isn't really any sort of explanation for it but moreso just a gut feeling.

Want: 70%

He'd be pretty neat. Unlike Phoenix Wright, I haven't seen him in a fighting game crossover before, so he has the edge over a lot of characters within the sort of genre the Professor Layton games are in. I may have never played any of the games before nor seen any LPs of them, but from the few things I have seen of him, I can get behind the idea of him in Smash. There isn't a character that looks like him with his big cylinder head nor do we have an actual detective character in Smash. He probably won't fit the kind of playstyle I like, but I would be happy for those wanting him in Smash.

If I ever do get to look into more of the games sometime, my opinion might change depending on the games themselves, but for now, Layton's cool on my book.
----------------------------------------
Predictions:
Sword Belmont: 11%
Axe Waifu: 20%
Lowkey Tragic Blue Edgelord: 4.1%
Smug Deer Dude: 4.1%
----------------------------------------
Noms:
Nightmare x5