Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Neosonic97]

Relevant characters matter: Banjo-Kazooie, and Ice Climbers to name a few wasn't relevant and still made it
No western characters: King K Rool and Banjo-Kazooie
No indie: Commander Video as a Trophy in Smash 4 and now Shovel Knight as Assist Trophy. Wall is almost broken.
Characters with no ties to nintendo can't enter: Cloud and Snake would like to have a word
Too Big for Smash: Ridley was reduced to fit after waiting to Ultimate.

Just adding my own gripe with one particular argument...

Not popular in the west: Takamaru is virtually non-existent in the west and yet they're an Assist Trophy. Also, the DQ Hero (While Dragon Quest isn't a complete unknown in the west, it certainly isn't a household name there either) blows this argument out of the water. Also, the inverse (not popular in Japan) is also untrue due to people like Shovel Knight getting non-spirit representation.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Just adding my own gripe with one particular argument...

Not popular in the west: Takamaru is virtually non-existent in the west and yet they're an Assist Trophy. Also, the DQ Hero (While Dragon Quest isn't a complete unknown in the west, it certainly isn't a household name there either) blows this argument out of the water. Also, the inverse (not popular in Japan) is also untrue due to people like Shovel Knight getting non-spirit representation.

And yet we also have Sakurai on record saying that Takamaru would be playable if he wasn't so obscure in the West. I don't think you can easily knock this one.

Plus the standards for ATs are different from the ones for fighters, that much should be obvious.

 

[Dukefire]

I will put my chance score for the two on the topic.

Shantae

Chance and want 65%
I still do see her having a shot to becoming a fighter. To me, spirits don't deconfirm characters joining for two reasons:
1. Smash 4, Lucas and Mewtwo were trophies before coming back as DLC.
2. Characters like Mario for example has different types of spirits, so adding another to resemble the fighter is fine.

The only drawback would be of course other potential characters have a better shot, but I will say that she does have a chance, but I'm unsure.

Professor Layton

Want and chance: Can't Say

I honestly haven't played his series of detective mystery, so I can't say. Although, I'm always one to keep open if he should come next.

 

[Ridrool64]

Can you solve the mystery of the dancing genie?

Shantae Chance: Sorry lass, firstly you're a Spirit, which means you have an active gameplay role, presence in the game, and doesn't fit in with any of the other DLC characters up to this point. Second, you're a Spirit that has a role in World of Light. Third, (last I heard) your company is still campaigning for you (a heavy implication you didn't make it). Can't really give her a high score in good faith. Fan demand...? 5%.

Want-ae: She's, er... well, it's kinda hard for me to talk about her since I kept trying to play Risky's Revenge (DSi) and honestly kept getting bored and never ever finished it. If we had to go for an indie character, give me Frisk any day, and if it had to be an indie who is already in Smash, make it Shovel Knight. That being said, I want her more than Sans-ish (in the sense that when I rate Sans I acknowledge he still comes with Undertale content, but in a vacuum where all we get is a character and literally nothing else, I'd take Shantae over him) and pretty much any other indie, because she's a big name nowadays when it comes to Smash, and a lot of people would be happy to see her. 50%.

Layton Chance: If this were base game, Jibanyan would still be pretty steep competition, but when you're like me and disregard the idea of company reps being limited deliberately, Layton has straight-up no problems with his inclusion. But he also doesn't have any overwhelming strengths like Crash does, and while he has no problems NOW, Mii Costume theory could be what does him in.
For now, 50%.
Layton Want: Again, last hope of Puzzle games, if Jibanyan gets in then an entire genre got the middle finger 3 games in a row. Never touched his games, but he seems cool enough. Probably could make an interesting moveset for him. 50%.

Edelgard will get 10.29%, Byleth will get 11.10%, and Claude/Dimitri will be treated as complete no-goes. 1.29% for both.

Lastly, Two Characters from the Same Company... will be coming later, after the purge occurs. For now, Sunflower x 5.

 

[MrUndy]

Today I will rate only Shantae because I don't know anything about Layton.

Chances: 23.03%
Once again, I don't believe Spirits deconfirm. She have not a small history with Nintendo. Shantae also have a huge popularity and fan demand, and I don't understand why is she that huge tbh.

The "Smash window" is nothing than just another Smash reference, and no, it's not an animation error.
All 5 characters for Fighter Pass were chosen before Joker was announced, and WayForward probably started making animated short for Shantae 5 since May, so it's very unlikely that the window means anything.
And it's also worth to mention that it's not the first time we've seen WayForward making references in Shantae games.

Since her franchise is already referenced in the game it's very unlikely that she will join this Fighter Pass.


Want: 5%
I've played" Half-Genie Hero" and "The Pirate cursed", these games are just good, but I still don't understand why is she so popular while such huge platformer mascot as Rayman got at least some recognition in Smash community mostly thanks to the famous Artsy Omni's leak.
The combat is not that fun unlike in Shovel Knight and Rayman Origins/Legends, the character cast is not that memorable unlike in Undertale in her games. Maybe she got popularity mostly from fan service?
It's painful for me to imagine Sakurai and Nintendo picking her over others spirit and indie characters such as: Geno, Rayman, Bandana Dee, Shovel Knight, Sans/Frisk and Minecraft Steve.
Maybe I'm too rude with her? I would really like if someone can explain to me what makes her special.

Prediction: Can we have at least one character with an axe?

Noms:
Gordon Freeman x 3
Sans x 2

 

[Hollywoodrok12]

Shantae: Still a Half Genie Zero.

Chance: 1*10^-10% (not 0% because nothing's truly impossible, but can be rounded down to 0%)
Almost all of my points from the previous rerate remain standing, with the sole exception of Number 5, thanks to . And Number 7 still stands, but for different reasons than the previous rerate.

Spoiler: Previous Rerate

Shantae: From Half-Genie Hero to Half-Genie Zero:

Chance: 0.001%: Yeah, I think she's even less likely than Rex, and maybe even Shrek and Goku. Let's go over all of the evidence against her:

1: (The obvious) She's a spirit, which does deconfirm her.

2: WF talked about wanting her in as one of the DLC fighters, implying that she wasn't already chosen for DLC, since they'd need to be under an NDA, which was the only thing Shantae had going for her for the base game.

3: Considering how she keeps appearing as a spirit in the promotional content, it looks like she's the Waluigi of Spirits, so no promotion for her anytime soon.

4: There are many more likely indie reps. Sans, Travis, Steve (who's pretty much already confirmed) and even Shovel Knight are way more well-known, and more important to Nintendo (financially). With even one of these characters in the game, Nintendo would see no reason to add a second indie rep, not only for that game/DLC, but probably the next one, too.

5: Nintendo ignoring the fans moreso than usual: The only Fan-Favorites we've gotten were Inkling, Ridley and King K. Rool. All three of these fighters were either financial assets to Nintendo (Inkling) or the tip-top of the fighter ballot (Ridley and K. Rool). Everyone who wasn't those 3 was shafted for an Assist Trophy or a Sticker. Top contenders like Isaac, Waluigi, Skull Kid, Krystal, Lyn, Bomberman, Spring Man, Rex, and even Shovel Knight were written off as unworthy, and Shantae was so much of an afterthought that all they gave her was a sticker. So with so little for the fans, the DLC is not likely to get anyone for the fans. Even if there is one or two characters, they're probably not going to pick her.

6: She's unpopular. How many of you have heard of her before Smash? Not many. Enough said.

7: People Hate her. Steve's been beating her on fan polls left and right, and only one or two people here (including me) have given her anything higher than a 20% on want score.

In the end, Shantae's place in Smash looks like it is and always will be a PNG file that wasn't even made for this game.

Last time, I said she MIGHT be less likely than Shrek and Goku, but this time I actually do think Shrek and Goku are more likely than her. I think that calling her a "never ever ever" pick would be giving her a bit too much credit.

I have a new list of reasons why I believe that Shantae isn't getting into Smash Ultimate. A lot of this is going to be regurgitating the past rerate with new wording tho.

Spoiler: Long. VERY Long.

1: She's a Spirit. Spirits 100% deconfirm and I've believed that since day 1. For more info on that, please look at the last part of this thread's original post.

2: No NDAs. WF and Shantae's Voice Actress both talked about Shantae in Smash, which would break a Non Disclosure Agreement.

3: She's the Who of Spirits? Shantae appeared a lot in the promotional content for Spirits. Due to her being highly requested, it makes sense to do this to sell sprits mode as a whole. Sound familiar? It should, because Waluigi is treated the same way for Assist Trophies. Shantae's the Waluigi of Assist Trophies, and we're all well aware Waluigi will NEVER be in Smash.

4: On the spectrum of Nindies, there are many characters to choose from. So why Shantae when her competition has so much else going for them with Nintendo and gaming as a whole? Shovel Knight was important enough to be given a better role than Shantae (even though it deconfirms him, too). Suda51, who is behind No More Heroes, is friends with Sakurai, meaning Travis has a better shot than her. There's also Commander Video, who was a Trophy before Shantae was even talked about. Additionally, Reimu from Touhou is a Japanese icon, Frisk and sans are icons worldwide. What does Shantae have that can stand up to them? Cadence was able to get a crossover with an OFFICIAL NINTENDO PROPERTY. not just any IP, but Zelda! Last but certainly not least, Steve is from the best-selling game of all time. With so many of these characters with great merits in their corner, with some of them being way more popular than Shantae, how is she supposed to stand a chance against any one of them, let alone every one of them?

5: An actually new one. She's unknown in Japan. The only reason people are starting to har of Shantae over there is because of the collaboration with Trigger. Before then, when Smash DLC was actually decided,

6: She's extremely obscure in general. How many of you heard of Shantae before smash speculation, let alone actually played her games? Not many.

7: She has a huge hate base. Everywhere you look, you will find Shantae detractors. Whether they simply don't like the character, have another indie rep that they'd rather see over her, people who think that Shantae fans want her for reasons im not sure i can say without getting banned, and people who just hate her for the sake of hating her. Compare that to the amount of Shantae fans, and you've got an already anti-Shantae board looking even worse for the Half-Genie Zero.

8: Where is her spirit found? In World of Light. Do you know how much of a headache it would be for the Smash team to handle one of those spirits specifically? Let's assume she did beat the impossible odds. First, they have to make the actual fighter, which is already a huge toll on the team. Then they have to find what they have to do with that little png file on the bridge. Then they have to find a way to allow players to still be able to access her spirit battle while letting you play as her in WOL. Then they need to write a whole lore-wise explanation for how someone who was prominently killed in Galeem's attack, yet has a body and is able to help Kirby. It's either that or pick another fighter.

9: Other fighters would make more money. Nintendo's a business. They want money. Who would make Nintendo the least money? A triple A juggernaut? A breakout indie star who's become a big household name in so little time, or Shantae?

10: Why would Sakurai pick her? As far as we know, Sakurai only knows of her as "that one character in North America people keep annoying me about". This is basically my catch-all argument, because Sakurai and/or Nintendo could have reasons for not picking her to be a fighter that we wouldn't even guess unless we were told from reliable sources.

Counterarguments:

"Spirits don't deconfirm": please look at the last part of this thread's original post.

"But the window/other evidence!": How do we know if that's even intentional. Let's assume it was intentional. It is probably a fake teaser to stir up hype for her. They already did it before, with the last DLC for HGH having a Smash crossover (ie Smash x Castlevania) reference in the trailer, and an "Everyone is Here" reference in Jammies mode. That amounted to nothing. After breaking NDA, they can't turn around and tease her again with her actually being in.

It's pretty plain to see that Shantae doesn't stand a chance to get into Smash, and again, I actually unironically believe that she's one of the few characters to be less likely than Shrek and Goku. She has that much stacked against her.

Want: 100%. And I still hate it.

I feel that she and Shovel Knight started a kind of Nindies revolution during the ballot days. They were seen everywhere, and while I was against it at first, Shantae grew on me. I feel that with that, her history with Nintendo, being the only Nindie to go back to the Gameboy Color, her personality, which is better than half the roster, and her moveset potential that's one of few cases of "what should be in her moveset" instead of "what could be in her moveset" makes me personally feel that she would be a really fun addition while showing many an otherwise hidden piece of Nintendo history.

And now for the far more concise Professor Layton:

Chance: 1%. Layton isn't too relevant nowadays, and I'm not even sure he has anything going on. He has few disadvantages, but I dont see them picking him of all characters for a Puzzle game rep over someone more iconic in Japan (or US but I don't think anyone fits that bill) like Arle.

Want: Abstain. I'm pretty much neutral to Layton. I'd be cool with his inclusion, as long as he's not leaked.

Guesses:

Byleth: 10%
Edelgard: 5%
Dimitri/Claude: 1%

Nomination:

Dragalia Lost Rep x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Chance: 1%. Layton isn't too relevant

Dude's still getting games ported to the Switch. One was announced as recently as this week.

 

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

Abstaining on Shantae

Professor Layton Chance: 55%

Most people have talked about the normal stuff, such as series sales, iconicness and moveset potential, but I wanted to draw attention to somethings less talked about. Lets look at these two quotes about Smash Bros. Ultimate from Nintendo last two IR relation outlines.

Every fighter that has previously appeared in the Super Smash Bros. series is in this title, hence the tagline of “Everyone is here!” In fact, the tagline could also apply to every consumer who enjoys playing games. For many years, Nintendo has striven to build good relationships with consumers and maintain them. This latest Super Smash Bros. title is like a giant gathering of everyone who has ever had access to Nintendo games at any stage in their lives during the 35 years that Nintendo has been continuously producing video games. As a result, we’re seeing a change in consumer demographics as people across a wide variety of age groups are all playing Super Smash Bros. There are plenty of consumers all over the world, regardless of age or gender, who have experienced Nintendo games, so we hope this will have a positive impact on the expansion of the Nintendo Switch business going forward.

After the start of the calendar year, the title driving the most hardware sales is Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. This is a list of titles played by consumers on their first day after purchasing Nintendo Switch, between January and March 2019. As you can see, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate was the title most commonly played by users with new Nintendo Switch systems. When Super Smash Bros. Ultimate was first released, it was played by people within a wide age range, and particularly by men in their 20s to early 30s. As time has passed, however, the range of consumers playing this game has widened even further. Our data shows that the range of consumers showing interest in this game is also increasing, which means the title draws such a broad range of people.

The notion that Smash Bros. is appealing to a broader demographic is repeated, and I believe it is something that is important and was considered in the DLC process, in fact during the ballot besides asking what character you want and which game they came from, it also asked for your gender. With the 3DS ending it's lifespan, the Switch Lite, and a focus on game series that were predominately portable, it's clear that Nintendo's goal for this year is to attract the casual market of the 3DS to make the jump to the switch. Due to what has been said in investor relations and Nintendo's general marketing strategy for this year, I find it likely that we will receive a newcomer who is aimed towards the female and casual market of the DS/3DS.

I can think of no other character that could appeal to this market as Professor Layton can. The Professor Layton series is an interesting case since it is more popular with female gamers, and outside of Dragon Quest IX, all 3 of the the original trilogy games were the highest selling non-Nintendo games on the DS. The only other portable franchise that might seem to challenge Layton for this spot would be Level-5 other big seller, Yo-Kai watch, but it is mainly only successful in Japan, while the Layton games enjoy popularity in the East and West, particularly the often overlooked European portion of the western market.

Despite what I said, I do acknowledge the possibility that I may look to far into things and try to confirm my own biases, but I do believe that the prospect that Nintendo would want at least one DLC choice to appeal to broader demographics makes sense. I feel more optomistic for Layton than I ever had, but it is also very possible that he could be overlooked by other canidates as well.


Want: 100%
It's currently past midnight were I am right now, since I'm tired I will conclude by saying that Professor Layton is one of my favorite characters in all gaming and that his games hold a special place in my heart. I very much hope that he joins the rest of my favorite characters in Smash Bros Ultimate.

 

[Hollywoodrok12]

Dude's still getting games ported to the Switch. One was announced as recently as this week.

Stand corrected. Still dont think he's making it in tho.

 

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

Can you solve the mystery of the dancing genie?

Shantae Chance: Sorry lass, firstly you're a Spirit, which means you have an active gameplay role, presence in the game, and doesn't fit in with any of the other DLC characters up to this point. Second, you're a Spirit that has a role in World of Light. Third, (last I heard) your company is still campaigning for you (a heavy implication you didn't make it). Can't really give her a high score in good faith. Fan demand...? 5%.

Want-ae: She's, er... well, it's kinda hard for me to talk about her since I kept trying to play Risky's Revenge (DSi) and honestly kept getting bored and never ever finished it. If we had to go for an indie character, give me Frisk any day, and if it had to be an indie who is already in Smash, make it Shovel Knight. That being said, I want her more than Sans-ish (in the sense that when I rate Sans I acknowledge he still comes with Undertale content, but in a vacuum where all we get is a character and literally nothing else, I'd take Shantae over him) and pretty much any other indie, because she's a big name nowadays when it comes to Smash, and a lot of people would be happy to see her. 50%.

Layton Chance: If this were base game, Jibanyan would still be pretty steep competition, but when you're like me and disregard the idea of company reps being limited deliberately, Layton has straight-up no problems with his inclusion. But he also doesn't have any overwhelming strengths like Crash does, and while he has no problems NOW, Mii Costume theory could be what does him in.

Layton Want: Again, last hope of Puzzle games, if Jibanyan gets in then an entire genre got the middle finger 3 games in a row. Never touched his games, but he seems cool enough. Probably could make an interesting moveset for him. 50%.

Edelgard will get 10.29%, Byleth will get 11.10%, and Claude/Dimitri will be treated as complete no-goes. 1.29% for both.

Lastly, Two Characters from the Same Company... will be coming later, after the purge occurs. For now, Sunflower x 5.

You gave a explanation for Layton’s chances, but you never gave an actual percentage. Just checking in to see if you’re abstaining or not.

 

[Curious Villager]

The Layton series latest new game came out as recently as 2017 with a brand new Switch title being confirmed to be in development. We've been having HD remasters of the older games for IOS devices and a Deluxe port of LMJ for Switch to tide us over in the meantime, as well as an anime that came along too.

I'd hardly consider the series to be irrelevant just after two years. Plus I think I'd rather Level-5 just take their time with the series than pump out a new game annually for the sake of staying relevant anyway. Just have stuff like the anime keep fans busy in between releases sounds like the best option for the series anyway.

 

[Ridrool64]

You gave a explanation for Layton’s chances, but you never gave an actual percentage. Just checking in to see if you’re abstaining or not.

D’oh. Will be fixed by the time most people read. Just in case, 50%.

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

Shantae
Chance 15:%she has been heavy reqested and has been Nintendo consoles since it's inception but with her Being a sprit did hurt her chances of being a playable fighter but she's still has a chance(albeit small).
Want 55%: I would like to see Shantae in smash with moves like her hair whip, magic spells and transformation powers.

Prosser Layton
Chance 55%:Layton does have a chance since his franchise is pretty popular(17 million copies sold), well received, and has a game coming soon so he's likely to be picked up but he does have competition another Level-5 franchise Yo-kai Watch so rerate him higher because of that.
Want: abstain.

Nomination: Scorpion X5

 

[Shinuto]

If we got a spirit character reveal that wasnt Shantae, I wonder how that would upset SHantae's chances in this thread given so many seem to base their thoughts on the fact she is a spirit.

 

[zferolie]

If we got a spirit character reveal that wasnt Shantae, I wonder how that would upset SHantae's chances in this thread given so many seem to base their thoughts on the fact she is a spirit.

Geno becomes a spirit: Oh Yeah I knew spirits meant nothing.

Shantae gets voted upon a gain: Nah shes a Indie spirit that means 0% chance

 

[Nemuresu]

Dude's still getting games ported to the Switch. One was announced as recently as this week.

Oh really? Well then, I'll change some points on my ratings then.

 

[Dukefire]

For now, having the title Indie is harming more then good since some say they its better for more bigger characters to enter.

Also, the Indie poster boy Shovel Knight is an Assist Trophy and not a fighter, they assume that if he can't make it, then no other indie can.

 

[Shinuto]

For now, having the title Indie is harming more then good since some say they its better for more bigger characters to enter.

Also, the Indie poster boy Shovel Knight is an Assist Trophy and not a fighter, they assume that if he can't make it, then no other indie can.

this is why I kinda hate Shovel Knight by association with this assumption that he's some sort of indie god, that if HE cant get in, no one else has a chance.

 

[Dukefire]

this is why I kinda hate Shovel Knight by association with this assumption that he's some sort of indie god, that if HE cant get in, no one else has a chance.

Well, he has appeared in more game titles then any other Indies could. So, I dont blame them for that idea.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Geno becomes a spirit: Oh Yeah I knew spirits meant nothing.

Shantae gets voted upon a gain: Nah shes a Indie spirit that means 0% chance

I take it you weren't here on Geno's day.

this is why I kinda hate Shovel Knight by association with this assumption that he's some sort of indie god, that if HE cant get in, no one else has a chance.

Hate the community, not the character. Why you gonna blame a character for what people assume him to be?

 

[zferolie]

I take it you weren't here on Geno's day.

Hate the community, not the character. Why you gonna blame a character for what people assume him to be?

It was a dumb joke. just joking how Shantae has a bunch of loud haters.

 

[Sid-cada]

Shantae

Chance - 0% - A spirit from a third party is fairly damaging for her chances. Personally, I have big doubts about anyone in this position. With them beging to get in causing a NDA to be bad, that's not a good look.

Want - 75% - Hey, I like the idea of her getting in. I feel her transformations would probably make her the most interesting indie character out of the bunch.


Prof. Layton

Chance - 30% - He's got a decent shot, I guess? Level 5 has been very supportive of Nintendo, and Layton is considered their flagship franchise. While Youkai Watch has been hot somewhat recently, now it is on the downturn. One major point is that they are going to have to get very creative with him, and Sakurai tends to go for characters that are somewhat easier to make move sets for as DLC. Other than that, though, he doesn't have a notable reason to get in, which kinda hurts when spots are as competitive as they are and there are bigger names.

Want - 60% - Not particularly excited, but I feel like he would be better than a Youkai Watch character. I can take him due to how close he is to Nintendo, though.


Predictions

Byleth - 4.65%
Edelgard - 2.24%
Dimitri/Claude - 0.21%

More fire emblem, huh? Ugh...


Nominations

Cadence X5

 

[chocolatejr9]

It was a dumb joke. just joking how Shantae has a bunch of loud haters.

I wasn't trying to come off as a hater (I find hating things to be unhealthy). Sorry if I offended you.

 

[zferolie]

I dont remember seeing you and thinking you were hating. Its jusy some people, mostly off these boards like gamefaqd and 4chan

 

[Ridrool64]

If a character that's eligible for Smash exists, somebody on GameFAQs or 4Chan absolutely hopes they won't get in. I wouldn't put special attention to them under any circumstances.

 

[FancySmash]

There still time? I'm gonna assume so.

Dixie the genie

Chance: 10%
Personally, I'm (like a lot of others on here) of the opinion that the window means nothing. Even then, trying to use it as a hint this late into the Fighter Pass, with two characters left, doesn't seem all that optimal. I still think there's a chance for the future though. Not in the fighter pass, but later on, I believe it's possible for spirits to become playable. As for now though, I have severe doubts.

Want: 50%
Eh, I'm quite honestly split down the middle here. I'd be OK with her. But at the same time, I have no connection to her games. If I absolutely had to choose an Indie rep though, I suppose she'd be up there when weighing my choices.

Layton to the party

Chance: 35%
It's been said a bit here already, but there's nothing strongly pointing too or against his inclusion. The only issue he's facing is having two chances left for the fighter pass. Well, that and Yokai Watch. Other than that, he's totally fair game with nothing to really speculate on.

Want: 50%
Again, a character I have no real connection to. I'm a bit concerned on how he'd work though. I understand that his kind of puzzle elements isn't at all like Dr. Mario's, but just by virtue of being a puzzle character, I'm worried about his implementation. Dr. Mario has next to nothing puzzle related to him, heck, he doesn't even get the viruses, a staple of the Dr. Mario series. I wonder, would Layton be prone to a similar fate? Otherwise, I'm fine with him.

Predictions:
Byleth: 15.01% - No one's really clamoring for him, but he is the lord of the game, so he'd likely be the inevitable pick.
Edelgard: 31.6% - Maybe I'm overestimating here, but people seem to be more confident with her. However, she's still FE, and we know where that goes.
Dimitri/Claude: 1.2% - Far less likely, no one talks about them, and there's no reason to choose them.

Nominations:
Kamek x5
Captain Rainbow x5

 

[Shinuto]

There still time? I'm gonna assume so.

Dixie the genie

Chance: 10%
Personally, I'm (like a lot of others on here) of the opinion that the window means nothing. Even then, trying to use it as a hint this late into the Fighter Pass, with two characters left, doesn't seem all that optimal. I still think there's a chance for the future though. Not in the fighter pass, but later on, I believe it's possible for spirits to become playable. As for now though, I have severe doubts.

Want: 50%
Eh, I'm quite honestly split down the middle here. I'd be OK with her. But at the same time, I have no connection to her games. If I absolutely had to choose an Indie rep though, I suppose she'd be up there when weighing my choices.

Layton to the party

Chance: 35%
It's been said a bit here already, but there's nothing strongly pointing too or against his inclusion. The only issue he's facing is having two chances left for the fighter pass. Well, that and Yokai Watch. Other than that, he's totally fair game with nothing to really speculate on.

Want: 50%
Again, a character I have no real connection to. I'm a bit concerned on how he'd work though. I understand that his kind of puzzle elements isn't at all like Dr. Mario's, but just by virtue of being a puzzle character, I'm worried about his implementation. Dr. Mario has next to nothing puzzle related to him, heck, he doesn't even get the viruses, a staple of the Dr. Mario series. I wonder, would Layton be prone to a similar fate? Otherwise, I'm fine with him.

Predictions:
Byleth: 15.01% - No one's really clamoring for him, but he is the lord of the game, so he'd likely be the inevitable pick.
Edelgard: 31.6% - Maybe I'm overestimating here, but people seem to be more confident with her. However, she's still FE, and we know where that goes.
Dimitri/Claude: 1.2% - Far less likely, no one talks about them, and there's no reason to choose them.

Nominations:
Kamek x5
Captain Rainbow x5

Anyone who's doubts on how Layton would fight have clearly never seen his fights in the games.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Anyone who's doubts on how Layton would fight have clearly never seen his fights in the games.

Layton rarely fights in his games. The only stand out moments I can think of off of the top of my head are the sword fight in DB and coin machine gun in UF.

My ratings soon.

 

[GoodGrief741]

There still time? I'm gonna assume so.

Dixie the genie

Chance: 10%
Personally, I'm (like a lot of others on here) of the opinion that the window means nothing. Even then, trying to use it as a hint this late into the Fighter Pass, with two characters left, doesn't seem all that optimal. I still think there's a chance for the future though. Not in the fighter pass, but later on, I believe it's possible for spirits to become playable. As for now though, I have severe doubts.

Want: 50%
Eh, I'm quite honestly split down the middle here. I'd be OK with her. But at the same time, I have no connection to her games. If I absolutely had to choose an Indie rep though, I suppose she'd be up there when weighing my choices.

Layton to the party

Chance: 35%
It's been said a bit here already, but there's nothing strongly pointing too or against his inclusion. The only issue he's facing is having two chances left for the fighter pass. Well, that and Yokai Watch. Other than that, he's totally fair game with nothing to really speculate on.

Want: 50%
Again, a character I have no real connection to. I'm a bit concerned on how he'd work though. I understand that his kind of puzzle elements isn't at all like Dr. Mario's, but just by virtue of being a puzzle character, I'm worried about his implementation. Dr. Mario has next to nothing puzzle related to him, heck, he doesn't even get the viruses, a staple of the Dr. Mario series. I wonder, would Layton be prone to a similar fate? Otherwise, I'm fine with him.

Predictions:
Byleth: 15.01% - No one's really clamoring for him, but he is the lord of the game, so he'd likely be the inevitable pick.
Edelgard: 31.6% - Maybe I'm overestimating here, but people seem to be more confident with her. However, she's still FE, and we know where that goes.
Dimitri/Claude: 1.2% - Far less likely, no one talks about them, and there's no reason to choose them.

Nominations:
Kamek x5
Captain Rainbow x5

The good thing about Layton is that you have tons of different puzzles with different elements that you could pull for a moveset. So I think the puzzles would be guaranteed representation.

If you wanna come on over to the Layton thread, Curious Villager also made a really great moveset that makes Layton play like a 'thinking man' fighter, relying on misdirection and stuff like that, to further have the puzzle element present.

 

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

Layton rarely fights in his games. The only stand out moments I can think of off of the top of my head are the sword fight in DB and coin machine gun in UF.

My ratings soon.

I would say that Layton faces at least one life threatening situation per game that he must use combat, mechanical, or physical prowess to overcome. Most of these moments are associated with spoilers so it’s easy to see why they’re not as well known. The prequel trilogy and vs. Phoenix Wright really showed off his fencing skills a lot, and so have Katrielle’s anime and the canon movie.

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

Shantae

Chance- 1%
I really don't see it happening. While I think in the grand scheme of things, spirits are not disconfirmations, Shantae is a bit of a special case. She literally only got in the game by the skin of her teeth as a spirit, with no other content from her series at all. If I had to guess, the spirit got in because of the Smash ballot, but (like Shovel Knight) only had support from the USA and maybe Europe. I could definitely see her getting a mii costume, though.

Want- 20%
I have never played a Shantae game, but I like her design. More girls in smash is always good in my book. I just couldn't really be bothered to care much either way. I really should play a Shantae game at some point.

Professor Layton

Chance- 2%
Maybe? I highly doubt it. Phoenix Wright is much more likely to get in by a mile if you ask me, and he has the benefit of being owned by Capcom (mii costume theory) as well as generally being more popular as far as I can tell. Professor Layton has closer ties to Nintendo, of course, but Level-5 isn't actually owned by Nintendo. While technically Phoenix Wright doesn't really affect Layton's chances, it'd just seem odd to put in Layton and not Wright.

Want- 5%
Professor Layton is a really cool series, I like it a lot. I haven't played any of the games since the time travel one, but I did enjoy the games I played. That said, I just don't think he'd be an interesting fighter in Smash. Unlike Phoenix Wright, his series is much more lowkey and taken seriously. You can't give him an over the top silly moveset based on solving puzzles, can you? I'm just not a fan of the idea, I guess. A mii costume would be cool, though.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Shantae

Chance- 1%
I really don't see it happening. While I think in the grand scheme of things, spirits are not disconfirmations, Shantae is a bit of a special case. She literally only got in the game by the skin of her teeth as a spirit, with no other content from her series at all. If I had to guess, the spirit got in because of the Smash ballot, but (like Shovel Knight) only had support from the USA and maybe Europe. I could definitely see her getting a mii costume, though.

Want- 20%
I have never played a Shantae game, but I like her design. More girls in smash is always good in my book. I just couldn't really be bothered to care much either way. I really should play a Shantae game at some point.

Professor Layton

Chance- 2%
Maybe? I highly doubt it. Phoenix Wright is much more likely to get in by a mile if you ask me, and he has the benefit of being owned by Capcom (mii costume theory) as well as generally being more popular as far as I can tell. Professor Layton has closer ties to Nintendo, of course, but Level-5 isn't actually owned by Nintendo. While technically Phoenix Wright doesn't really affect Layton's chances, it'd just seem odd to put in Layton and not Wright.

Want- 5%
Professor Layton is a really cool series, I like it a lot. I haven't played any of the games since the time travel one, but I did enjoy the games I played. That said, I just don't think he'd be an interesting fighter in Smash. Unlike Phoenix Wright, his series is much more lowkey and taken seriously. You can't give him an over the top silly moveset based on solving puzzles, can you? I'm just not a fan of the idea, I guess. A mii costume would be cool, though.

Well... What about a serious moveset based on solving puzzles then?

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

Well... What about a serious moveset based on solving puzzles then?

I'm sold.

 

[BowserKing]

Trying not to be inpatient, but when will the next day be?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Sorry for the long day, a personal medical issue kept me from coming to post.

Professor Layton

20% Chance

I have never been big on Layton in terms of chance. The biggest thing I can give Layton is popularity, especially in Europe. But I generally did not think he is super likely. At least, at first. Upon thinking about it more I can say he has a better chance that I was originally gonna give him (around 10%). Most of my issues I have grown to accept. A puzzle based moveset actually would be cool, although I wouldn't mind if they take a few moves from the small handful of moments he has to fight. He is a cult classic that had decent ballot support. Overall, arguements for him swayed me.

Abstaining on Want, need to finish the prequel Trilogy. UF is good tho.

Shantae

0% Chance

The Spirit is what kills her in my eyes. In my eyes, a third party spirit is already a poor sign. But out of all of the third party spirits that are not also ATs, Shantae is in my opinion the least likely to get more representation or be playable. The fact she got recognized at all is an honor. The best she is doing is a Mii Costume. But even then that is a stretch.

Yes Shantae has a fanbase. Yes she is getting a new game. Yes her games have supported Nintendo. But I do not think that offsets the spirit. I personally think her Nintendo legacy is stretching it, but then again I personally think Smash stopped being about Nintendo history alone with Pac Man and arguably Snake.

I also want to say in terms of indie reps, she would not even be in my opinion the top choice, or even the top 3. I will say this again, Undertale, like it or not (I personally find the fanbase makes liking it a difficult process), is a massive success here and in Japan. It also is one Nintendo at least is promoting more openly with prime time spots in the directs. I would not be shocked if our first indie rep would be Sans, even if it is unpopular. I would also say Touhou is more likely to get a character than Shantae is, and tbh the only reason Reimu was not on the fixed schedule is because I forgot. In hindsight, she should have been on instead of Chosen Undead (Happy GoodGrief741 ?). I would even say Hollow Knight is more likely.

20% Want

You know this song and dance. I do not like the games. They are decent metroidvanias with decent characters, but I never have fun playing them. I own every Shantae game and I just do not enjoy them. I tried, and I will probably try next year too. But I do not like the games or the character. This 20% is a pity for her fans, since they are diehards and I wish they would be happy at least.

Protoman x 5

Now I am gonna do something intersting. Today and Tomorrow are gonna Swap. This is so we can get our hands on Three Houses. Since I made this choice last minute Everyone gets 5 noms today since they cant predict Melmetal and Gen 8. Carry over your predictions or adjust them for Edelgard, Dmitri, Claude, and Blyeth.

 

[Ridrool64]

Metal Slime and his motherland, the bizarro world where Fire Emblem fans are happy with the new release and Pokémon fans are not

Melmetal chance: I really don't think so, 10%. We've yet to get any Mythicals in Smash, and it's because I suspect not only does Sakurai simply not really care for them being in nor think they have that X-factor that nessates their inclusion, but also TPC is not exactly fond of the idea, generally for the same reason very few of the mons in Smash have their shinies: because they likely feel it'd make the mon less special if they did that. I don't get why, but that's what I currently believe.

Melmetal want: Nah, we're fine without it. 20%, not exactly hurting for this guy to show up but I don't think there'd be too much of a problem.

Gen 8 chance: If we didn't have Incineroar, I'd be going really high for this one, but now I really don't see it. 20%, and it's mostly because the fandom for Pokémon is probably split between "not enough disposable income" and "well, the audience for it is already enticed to buy the game". They don't really get anything out of including a Generation 8 Pokémon in the game, because the people who are not gonna buy it (at least not new) won't be enticed by a Smash rep, and the people that are really don't care. I could believe Sakurai might have less of a choice in adding a Pokémon than other characters and the choice is mostly "who" instead of "why" or "should there be a Pokémon", considering that's why we have DLC to begin with, which is why I'm not going for less than 20%.

Gen 8 want: Frankly, while I don't want to be that guy who brings it up, *sigh* I really can't see myself support this game with how people are at risk of losing their favorites. I wouldn't be happy that Nintendo blindly assumed a Pokémon would go over well regardless of context at a time like this, although there was no way for them to know people would be that unhappy about it. And the games... well, let's see if they can make a miraculous turnaround in 4 months with the presentation, even though more than likely it's probably about 70~80% complete and I wouldn't be surprised if it goes gold by the end of September, allowing them to dedicate all their time into tuneups and getting the marketing ready. But the point is, adding a Sword and Shield Pokémon at this point would be worse timed than Corrin was. ESPECIALLY if it happens before launch, counting chickens before they hatch. Not Arle competition, but only 10%, because they could bring something new but that's the only upside. And Incineroar is still left without an Alola stage for some bizarre reason.

Concept: Company Double Dipping for DLC x 15, finally using those 5 extra noms. I wanted to do this after the purge but I'm gonna do it now even though it's unlikely I'll be able to make the cutoff unless other people are interested. (Actually, assuming nobody else noms this and I get all predictions wrong or don't do them, will I even have enough days?) Predictions are the same as last time.

Actually, I won't have enough time for that. Sunflower and More Bosses x 5.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Less than an hour after the day end baybee!!

Shantae: 1% Chance
It's been said before and it's going to be said again; Shantae is a spirit. Nintendo more than likely intends to keep Shantae as a supporting character rather than a standalone, playable character. Still, I can't rule her out, as Nintendo still publishes games by Way-Forward, and the relationship between the two companies is there, as well as the requests for Shantae.

10% Want
Hey, I wouldn't mind it. I actually watched a Shantae@Switch playthrough, and I was a fan of the transformations and hair whipping moveset. I think that she would melt in quite nicely, and it'd still be cool to get an indie rep in the game. However, there certainly are characters that I personally want more, to say the least.

Professor Layton: 20% Chance
There currently is no Professor Layton representation in the game, which actually boosts his chances. The games have been ported to Nintendo consoles (DS), and Layton did make it onto the top ballot contenders, proving relevancy. But still, with 2 spots left, Professor Layton isn't exactly a "shocking" character that Nintendo would want to end on.

60% Want
Still, I REALLY do want Professor Layton. Originating from a puzzle game, Layton could have a HIGHLY unique moveset unlike anything currently represented. I'd imagine it would turn out similar to Phoenix Wright in MvC3. But still, Layton has been reasonably popular among Smash fans, and I'd love to see what happens with his potential inclusion.

Noms: 9-Volt x5

Sorry TCT~Phantom for waiting to the last minute once again :/

 

[Sari]

I'm gonna start doing my music posts separately from my ratings so that they hopefully get more attention.

Some music to get into the Gen VIII Pokemon mood:

♪ Pokemon Sword/Shield Music ♪

Spoiler

These were the only Sword/Shield songs I could find that weren't filled with a ton of distracting sound effects or were completely fanmade.

I'll post my ratings in a bit.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Melmetal:
Chance: 0.01%
Rex and ARMS characters were ruled out for being too new. This guy came afterwards. The fighters pass also focuses on 3rd parties. Not happening.

Want: 0%
Please no more Pokemon. There are at minimum 30 characters I could name off the top of my head before I’d want another Pokemon.

Gen 8 Pokemon
Chance: 5%
Same as before. Too new, and the DLC focuses on 3rd Parties. I’ll give it a higher chance than Melmetal due to it referring to an entire generation of Pokemon rather than a singular one.

Want: 0%
Again, please no more Pokemon. Let other franchises in on the action, there are so many other characters we could use before another Pokemon.
Also my interest in SWSH has considerably waned in the past few months, not that I was planning on getting it anyway, but I won’t delve into that time bomb.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Metal Gear

Chance: 0%
It made sense to consider this guy when we didn't know about Gen 8's release. Now that we do, if we were to get a rep from that, it would be... You guessed it! A starter! Or if we're lucky, one of the more popular Pokemon (Zacian pls). I haven't heard a lot about Melmetal except that people don't like its design, so that already puts it at the end of the pack (whatever the complaints, it's pretty unanimous that people love SwSh's new Pokes).

Want: 0%
Cut some Pokemon - preferably starting with Incineroar - and we'll talk. I like Melmetal's design so I wouldn't be against it joining with a reduced roster, but 10 Pokemon is too many.

Wooloo et al

Chance: 0.5%
Yeah, the old Rex clause: if Rex was too late, then Nov 2019 is hella too late. Then again, that half percent is because Pokemon has given the Sak attack concept art before and might have again. Still, not counting on it, especially after the reactions to Corrin and Incineroar. While Sword and Shield definitely needs the PR right now, DLC was chosen a long time ago, and I'm pretty sure that a Smash character would be negative PR rather than positive.

Want: 0%
Again, no more Pokemon pls.

Now hypothetically, if we were talking cuts, then sure. I really like a lot of SwSh's designs, I think many are bound to become fan favorites, and - spicy hot take alert - I think the backlash is incredibly dumb and ridiculously overblown. So I wouldn't be against Sword and Shield getting a character in the future. But alas, Incineroar is in this game, and until he gets erased from Smash I won't take any new Mons.

Noms: Kyle Hyde X5
Crono X5

Predictions same as yesterday