Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[TheCJBrine]

Honeycomb Head:

Chance: 5% - I guess it could happen, but I feel they’d rather add a new starter Pokémon or whatever other Pokémon from the new generation. Maybe one that’s very popular, too. I guess Sakurai could have some ideas for it, though, like how he chose Incineroar.

Want: 5% - I’m only even giving more than 0% because it’s a Pokémon, but still very low because I have very little experience with how it is, so I really don’t know how to feel about it currently. I’d really like to have Gengar, too...

New Gen Pokemanz:

Chance: 20% - If we’re gonna get any first-party characters, Pokémon definitely has a good chance; however, it feels like we’re just gonna get third-parties imo, so I’m not sure it’s gonna happen. I feel people might have misinfo regarding Rex, though; Sakurai was probably talking about the base game when saying he came out too late, with him just being a bonus costume in the DLC because of that. This also feels like it’s more-likely what he meant since Nintendo started DLC negotiations last year, while Rex’s game came out in 2016. The costume was likely compensation since he wasn’t chosen for DLC.

edit: woops, XC2 was a late 2017 release, but oh well I don’t know.

Want: 90% - I’m already liking the new Pokémon so okay, but I’d still really like Gengar to join the battle. Maybe Raichu or some other ‘mons too if not Gengar...

Nominations:

Ninten x10

 

[Sari]

A random new Pokemon appeared! Quick, force it into Smash ASAP!!!!!

Chance: 0.1%
Melmetal was the most recent Pokemon at the end of last year when Pokemon Let’s Go released. If I’m going to be brutally honest, that is seriously the only major thing it has going for it. If we’re going to get a new Pokemon down the line it’ll probably be someone from Sword/Shield to promote the latest game in the series. I don’t see any reason why they’d go back to add a Pokemon from that weird period between Gen VII and VIII. Also from what I understand, Melmetal is technically a Gen VII Pokemon which gives even less of a reason to add it since we already have Incineroar.

Want: 0%
I hate adding characters just because they’re the most recent in their series and Melmetal is a prime example of this. I don't like its design and there are so many other Pokemon that I would want to see in Smash first (not that I'm really clamoring for another Pokemon rep to begin with).

----------

Concept: Gen with less features that’ll cost you $20 more than the previous games rep

For the record I'm not hating on anyone who wants Sword/Shield

Chance: 5%
When talking about Incineroar's inclusion, Sakurai said that he generally can't add characters until their game is released. He even said that he didn't decide on Incineroar until he played a bit of Ultra Sun/Moon. Yes we do have Roy in Melee but IIRC Binding Blade had been publicly revealed before Melee started development, not to mention Roy was a Marth clone anyway so he took less time to make. Considering that Ultimate's DLC lineup was finished by November 2018 (at the latest) and Gen VIII was first shown off in February 2019, they most likely missed the cut-off period. It is true that Sakurai went off of concept art alone to design a moveset for Greninja, but I just don't see that happening here especially since I think this DLC wave will most likely be all third parties.

Want: 0%
I wasn't all that hyped for Sword/Shield to begin with when compared to the previous games in the series, but most of my remaining interest in it went away with the whole National dex thing (specifically where Game Freak pretty much said "lol nope" in regards to adding the cut Pokemon throughout post-release). I don't want to open a can of worms into this thread so I'll just leave my thoughts on the game with that.

As for the Pokemon themselves, none of the currently revealed Gen VIII Pokemon would interest me that much as a fighter (even with Wooloo and Yamper being the cutest things ever). I also think Pokemon has more than enough reps at the moment unless we get cuts in the future or a heavily significant/demanded character in the series.

----------

My Fire Emblem predictions from last time:

Edelgard: 12.72%
Dimitri: 3.42%
Claude: 2.89%
Byleth: 9.83%

I don't see any of them happening tbh though I'll be interested to see all their want scores. Also there is no way Dimitri or Claude are getting in before Edelgard or Byleth.

----------

Nominations:
Concept: Rockstar Games rep (whatever the max noms is for today)

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Shantae/Professor Layton pre-Melmetal/Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon

Heavy (Team Fortress) x188
Crono x155
Kyle Hyde x155
Cadence (Crypt of the Necrodancer) x150
Kamek x144
Ellie (The Last of Us) x120
Concept: Rockstar Games rep x120

150 - 101

Saber (Fate) x117
Rundas x115
Gene (God Hand) x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105
Velvet Crowe x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Ninten x100
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
Terry Bogard x95
Specter Knight x95
[Rerate] Micaiah x90
Frogger x85
Glover x85
9-Volt x85
Adeleine (Kirby) x83
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Jin Kazama x75
Captain Rainbow x72
Blaze the Cat x70
X (Mega Man) x68
Concept: More Bosses x65
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x65
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x60
Papyrus x51
Decidueye x51

50 - 25

Brian (Quest 64) x50
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x50
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x40
Kyo Kusanagi x40
Lara Croft x40
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x38
Gooey (Kirby) x37
Concept: DLC challenges x35
Concept: Another western character x35
Kratos x35
Proto Man x35
Earthworm Jim x33
Amaterasu x32
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Qbby x30
Cooking Mama x30
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25

Under 25

Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x22
Reporter & Wrestler x20
Tora and Poppi x20
Johnny Silverhand x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
Marx (Kirby) x17
Gex x17
King Boo x16
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x15
Black Shadow x15
Concept: Another joke character x13
Concept: Grookey's final evolution x13
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x12
Mike Jones x11
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Medabots rep x10
Sir Arthur (Ghosts 'n Goblins) x10
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x10
Magolor x9
Toon Zelda x8
Gordon Freeman x8
Blacephalon x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
Rash x5
Concept: League of Legends rep x5
Serious Sam x5
Concept: A character outside the Fighter Pass x5
Goemon (Mystical Ninja) x5
Urbosa x5
[Rerate] Tetromino x5
[Rerate] Sans x5
Lizalfos x4
Concept: No More DLC x3
Concept: At least one fighter in the Pass is not third-party x3
Boss: Sans x2
Sub-Zero x2
Concept: Street Fighter Mii costumes x2
Rad Spencer x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
Pappy Van Poodle x1
Dr. Eggman x1
Toon Zelda & Tetra x1
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x1

Concept: Rockstar Games rep shoots into the top 7, tying with Ellie and kicking Saber off.

Velvet Crowe claws past 100 noms.

Today's new nominees are a rerate of Tetromino (5 noms), and Concept: At least one fighter in the Pass is not third-party (3 noms).

 

[Neosonic97]

I'm rating both of these in one, because my rating and reasoning for them is exactly the same.

Chance: nope.avi

Yeah... not happening. There are more popular Gen 8 Pokemon, and Melmetal itself is a freaking Mythical. Those things don't become playable. As for the Gen 8 Pokemon, it's the Rex Clause. They're simply too new (Remember, we only learned about these new Pokemon at the same time as Fighters Pass 2 and 3 came out, with the exception of the Starters). I don't see Nintendo doing the same thing as they did with Greninja again, ESPECIALLY for DLC.

Want: 0% right now
At bare minimum, I'd want a proper Gen 2 (i.e. NOT Pichu), Gen 3, and Gen 5 rep before even thinking about any of the Gen 8 Pokemon, let alone a Mythical Pokemon like Melmetal.

Noms: Reimu Hakurei rerate x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Melmetal

Chance: 0.5%

Melmetal was announced in October of 2018, and at that point Sakurai probably already knew who he wanted as DLC, especially since the direct on November 1st confirmed the fighters pass. Plus he is considered a Generation VII pokemon and we already have Incineroar. Not to mention they would continue the tradition of adding a starter from the newest generation (VIII). Combined with heavy competition from other Pokemon in Generation VII alone and you have a recipe for a character that is not happening.

Want: 35%

I don't know much about him, but he looks cool and having a Pokemon that is not a starter for once would be neat. Still, I prefer other Pokemon like Gengar, Sceptile, etc.


Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance: 15%

If they were going to add just one first party character, I think it will most likely be a Gen 8 Pokemon (I gave Fire Emblem Three Houses rep a 25% chance score which looking back on was a bit too generous). However, I have already stated that I don't think first party characters are happening. 3 out of 5 of the dlc characters are third party, that is not a good sign for first parties.

Want: 55%

I love Pokemon, but so far none of the new Pokemon really pique my interest and there are so many third party characters that would be so much cooler to have and would bring more to the table rather than another Pokemon on top of 10 Pokemon (if you separate Pokemon Trainer into 3 characters).

 

[3BitSaurus]

Melmetal
Chance: 1%
I don't think Melmetal is "too late" for DLC, but I also don't think TPC is pushing him. I mean, they were in PGO, but they did the same with Bonsly and Munchlax back in Gen IV and that didn't make them viable for Smash. Otherwise, other more iconic mythical Pokémon have been passed over before and I can't see Melmetal being the one to break the trend. TPC is weird when it comes to the mythicals...

Want: 0%
I don't find it interesting. At all. And adding another Pokémon just to add one from the new game would be an awful decision when we have the possibility of adding other characters from third-party companies who could add a lot more interesting mechanics, stages, songs and Spirits to the game.

Gen VIII Pokémon
Chance: 5%
I find a Fire Emblem character more likely than a SWSH Pokémon, and that's saying a lot. I really don't see why they would do it - we haven't even seen much of the new Pokémon - not even from the starters. At least from our perspective, there isn't much to pull from as of now.

Want: 0%
I find the idea of putting a character in Smash just because they're from a new game to be really nonsensical. Can we please wait for a character or concept to become more iconic before giving them a slot? As a long-time Pokémon fan, I've grown increasingly frustrated with the way the franchise's newcomers have been treated as almost purely an advertisement since Brawl.

People whine about "too much from Gen I". Okay, fair - but there's still so much to pull from without having to resort to marketing picks.

Plus, we already have eight Pokémon characters in Smash. Let other series shine. Pokémon may be the biggest media franchise in the world, but I'd rather have the last two spots go to third-party games I don't care about, but that would bring new stuff, instead of another character I never asked for from a series I love.

Predictions
Are the characters the same from yesterday? If so, then my prediction is also the same.
Dmitri and Claude: 5%
Edelgard and Byleth: 10%

Nominations
Kyo Kusanagi x10

 

[zeonie888]

Melmetal
Chance 0%
I feel that melmetal is too late for the slot. I feel that there are other pokemon that could represent gen 8 better than it.

Want 50%
I would be more surprised to see it get in

SWSH Pokemon
Chance 0%
I feel that they are on the same boat as Melmetal.

Want 50%
I'm not against the idea however I feel that gens 3 and 5 need reps before gen 8

 

[Artix]

Oh man, it's been a long time since I last rated in this thread. Might as well come back here since I really missed doing these ratings. That, and I have nothing else to do.

Melmetal & Gen 8 Pokemon (I decided to roll them into one since they all had the same rating to me):

Chance: 0%
I honestly believe we're not getting a Gen 8 Pokemon in this wave of DLC. Not only because we only have 2 slots left, but those 2 slots will most likely be filled by third-party characters. Even if we somehow put a first-party character in there, he'll face competition from other first-party characters like Fire Emblem or Xenoblade.

Want: 5%
I'm normally fine about having a Gen 8 Pokemon in Smash, but since we only had 2 slots left in the Fighter's Pass, I highly don't think about them since I know that those 2 slots will be filled by third-parties. Also, I'm not really a fan of Melmetal's design. I mean I like it, but there's just something about it that I personally don't like.

Prediction:
Byleth & Edelgard: 13.25%
Dmitri & Claude: 4.17%

Nomination:
Saber (Fate) x10
GoodGrief741 I do have 10 extra noms, right?

 

[BowserKing]

Melmetal

Chance: 20% a new steel Rep would make things interesting for the Pokémon Roster. The one issue is the competition, from not just a lot of Pokémon, but also a lot of other fighters, that could be difficult for Melmetal.

Want: 65%. Melmetal's steel type abilities would make it unique amoung the cast, and it would be fun to use. If not playable, then it could be a Pokeball Pokémon (or it's earlier form, Meltan can)

Sword/Shield Rep

Chance: 30%. Would make a surprising late addition to promote Sword and Shield. The Question is who (rooting for Corviknight, but Yamper and an Evolved starter would be fun)

Want: 75%, at least for now. Corviknight would be a fun addition, Yamper would most likely be a Pikachu Semi Echo (with bits of Duck Hunt) and the evolved starter, we will have to play the waiting game. More would be fun spirits and Pokeball Pokémon for your choosing.

Noms: Concept: at least one fighter in the fighter's pass is not third-party for 3 Noms and Adeleine for 2

 

[Jomosensual]

Melmetal

Chance 0 - I don't think they're going to pick Melmetal with all the new Pokemon coming up. If we're getting a new Pokemon for Smash I feel like the most likely one would be a final evolution of a starter, likely Grooky's right now.

Want 35 - I wouldn't be super disappointed or anything, but there's characters I'd be way more interested in than Melmetal, who would get a "Oh, well that's not my least favorite pick but well, I guess that's fine". There's some stuff that could make it a fun character but, I don't know, not sure i want it that bad

Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance 20 - Not going to completely count this one out, but I don't think this is going to happen. Based on the Pokemon that we know right now I don't think any are contenders to make the game. Like I said above, right now I'd guess that one of the starters final forms would make the game right now, but since we don't even know what those are it's tough to make a case for them. My guess personally is that this will not happen, but since we don't really have a good idea as to when plans for gen 8 started and when Pokemon were being made I think it's still possible considering that a gen 7 pokemon was saved a slot pretty early on in the development for Ultimate

Noms
Kratos x5

 

[Calamitas]

Hrrrrngh. . . Melmetal Gear, huh?

Chance: 0%
Nah, I just really don't see it happening. Out of all the playable Pokémon fighters already in Smash, exactly one of them is a legendary, and none of them is a mythical Pokémon. That aside, I feel it already kinda had its chance, seeing as the Let's Go games came out before Smash. If they had wanted to pick Melmetal as a promotional character, the chance for that would've been the base roster, not the DLC. And doesn't it technically still count as a Generation 7 Pokémon?

Want: 10%
I guess it could be interesting, as a slow, super-heavyweight Pokémon. But really, I'm not exactly a fan of its design, and what I know of its abilities isn't that interesting either. Plus, as far as playable mythical Pokémon in Smash go, I'd just really prefer Deoxys, Darkrai, Victini, Meloetta or Genesect.

A concept that would've probably gone over better before a certain announcement in a Treehouse video

Chance: 25%
This. . . it depends, really. I can't see a Gen 8 Pokémon being part of the Fighter's Pass, even when considering how Greninja was added to Smash 4. But a potential standalone DLC fighter - without a stage - beyond that? Yeah, that doesn't seem too unrealistic.

Want: Abstain
First time I'm abstaining on a want score, lol. Well, at any rate, my reason here is simple: We just don't know all the Generation 8 Pokémon yet. It's perfectly possible that my new favourite Pokémon of all time is in these games, which would also be absolutely perfect for Smash - but I have no way of knowing that yet. From this standpoint, I think it's best if I don't give a rating for my want score.

Nominations:
Amaterasu x8
Concept: at least one fighter in the Fighter's Pass is not third-party x2

(Or do I have any more noms left? I don't really get it)

 

[OrpheusTelos]

Melmetal Alchemist: Brotherhood

Chance: 1%

Even if I didn't firmly believe that the fighters pass is going to be exclusively third party, I think the flavor of the month Pokemon used to push a Pokemon Go tie-in game would be among the least of Nintendo's priorities for DLC.

Want: 10%

As someone who found Let's Go super boring and forgettable, I'd rather its representation be limited to the Pikachu/Eevee spirits. I think Meltan's design is cute, but I cannot for the life of me think of a compelling moveset for Melmetal or a reason for it to be included over another character or even other flavor of the month Pokemon

Be My Mirror, My (Pokemon) Sword and Shield, My Missionaries in a Foreign Field

Chance: 1%

Aside from being first party, we barely know anything about these games' Pokemon yet. We don't even know what the starters are going to evolve into yet, which doesn't particularly bode well since Sakurai waited until Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon released to add Incineroar. At least we knew enough about what Corrin was like when Sakurai chose them for DLC, but we're all in the dark about a majority of the new Galar Pokes. If Rex and Spring Man were too recent for the roster, then a Galar Pokemon would definitely be too new. Plus we already got an obligatory new Pokemon with Incineroar, do we really need another one?

Abstaining on want, if only because a lot of the new Pokemon haven't been revealed yet and I wanna wait before making a judgement

Predictions are the same as last time for FE characters

Noms: Gex x5

 

[RoboFist]

My 80s Melmetal Cover Band

Chance: 10%

Ugh. In my opinion, if we are getting a first-party rep in this Fighter's Pass, it will most likely be a new Pokemon rep. We all know it's the biggest franchise Nintendo's got and would definitely draw in more casual players who would recognize this guy from Pokemon Go. Considering how many millions of people still play that game, that would be a huge get for Smash Ultimate. Still, I don't think we are getting first-party characters in this pass, but this dopey-looking legendary still gets a 10% from me because I could see The Pokemon Company making this sort of threat.

Want: 0%

Man, I just never understood this thing, especially as a mythical 'mon. Hexagonal nuts made of metal weren't even utilized until the 19th century. So are we supposed to believe that some rando accidentally built a legendary Pokemon in the middle of the Pokemon world's equivalent of the industrial revolution? If legendaries are so easy to just create, why doesn't every 10-year-old have one? Why are we so impressed with Mewtwo and Genesect when apparently you can just grab the nearest square nut, toss it onto a Ditto spray-painted silver, and call it a day?

...Sorry. Yeah, Melmetal gets a 0% from me. Moving on.

"You Have My Sword." "And My Shield." "But Not My Axe (Yet?)"

Chance: 25%

So we've got two more slots to fill in this Fighter's Pass, right? After Joker, Hero, and Burger King, these remaining slots have become very precious real estate. So far, each character revealed has been met with enormous fanfare from either the east or the west (and sometimes even both). So to just throw in a random Pokemon we've never even encountered before would feel cheap.

Unless they saved said Pokemon for last and released it in February, a good couple of months after the world has had the chance to play Sword and Shield. I still think that's too risky a move, but Nintendo did pick the DLC, and they really want Pokemon to be a Switch seller even more than Smash Ultimate...

Again, I don't think we're getting first-parties this time around, but a SwSh rep is more plausible than I think a lot of people want to believe.

Want: 3%

Look, I love Pokemon. Some of my favorite gaming memories center around Pokemon. And if The Pokemon Company really wanted to douse the roaring "Dexit" fire before Gen 8 hits shelves, slapping a Galar 'mon might seem like a business saavy move. But even then, just throwing in another starter (it would probably be Grookey's final evolution to have a Grass starter to go with Greninja and Incineroar) would be a huge gamble (what if the world unanimously hated Grookey's final evolution?). And who else would they throw in? The legendary wolf with a shield for a face? Or the legendary wolf with the sword permanently fused to its mouth?

The only way I see a Gen 8 rep being exciting in any way would be if they went the Pokemon Trainer route and gave us three new Pokemon to play as, but I really don't see them going that route. Again, I'm always down for more Pokemon representation, but now doesn't seem like the right time.


Nominate: Tetromino x5

 

[Nemuresu]

Melmetal and Gen 8 pokémon concept:

Chance (for both): 0%-Applying Rex clause here, in other words, if he wasn't in time for the base or the DLC, then why should these guys stand a chance? Not to mention, as I mentioned a couple of months ago, I really doubt we're getting any first-party characters since Sakurai has shown with Corrin and Piranha Plant that he's not that interested in making them a full pack.

Want (for both): 0%-For Melmetal, I find it to be a really lame design. It's just a giant golem with a bunch nuts sticked on to it.

As for the concept in general, since it's likely Sakurai would choose another starter, I'm gonna leave most of my thoughts in spoilers, because I'm going to talk about a certain 4chan leak that pokémon fans may recognize:

Spoiler

Alright, the leak suggested that Grookey's final evo looks like a giant gorilla with a drum. You know what that reminds me of? Donkey Kong's atrocious Final Smash from Brawl and 4. Otherwise, I can't help but find this idea redundant to DK.
Then there's Scorbunny, which is only described to be some sort of fighter. Can't assume much with that, but it likely has similar vibes to guys like Blaziken and Incineroar.
And finally, Sobble, which is said to be a spy. All I can think of is something like f*****g Randall from Monster's Inc.
None of them are anything I'm interested in.

Predictions:
Byleth: 22.39%
Edelgard: 18.78%
Claude: 1.13%
Dmitri: 1.13%

 

[GoodGrief741]

GoodGrief741 I do have 10 extra noms, right?

You do.

(Or do I have any more noms left? I don't really get it)

Yes, you have 5 noms per day.

Though today is a special day, so everyone gets 10.

 

[3BitSaurus]

You do.

Yes, you have 5 noms per day.

Though today is a special day, so everyone gets 10.

Oh, really? Going to edit my original post, but just in case:

Kyo Kusanagi x 10, instead of x5

 

[Calamitas]

Yes, you have 5 noms per day.

Though today is a special day, so everyone gets 10.

Ah, got it. I edited my post accordingly.

 

[Deleted member]

Melmetal

Chance: 0.5%

Melmetal not having a spirit in the game doesn't really mean anything if Incineroar's a playable fighter in Smash. I doubt that we're getting another gen 7 Pokemon in the Fighter Pass for that matter.

Want: 1%

There's only very few 1st Party characters left that I'd want to see in Smash, and like most Pokemon, Melmetal isn't 1 of them (especially as DLC). Honestly, Melmetal would be better off as a Pokemon in the Poke Ball than an actual fighter in Smash.
-------------------------------
Pokemon Brexit

Chance: 11%

With all the 3rd Parties being involved in the Fighter Pass, It would be interesting if Game Freak and Pokemon Company got Nintendo to put 1 of their newer Pokemons in Smash VIA concept art. No matter how big the controversies surround Sword and Shield, they're still dead set on releasing this game in November with no delays, which does make it a perfect candidate to actually promote the games VIA Smash since it'll be extremely relevant by the time we reach the release date of the 4th and 5th Fighter Packs. The only thing that makes me not expect to see a gen 8 Pokemon is that neither the Pokemon Company nor Game Freak are considered 3rd Parties, and with the whole "appealing to new demographics" thing, a gen 8 Pokemon would just be appealing to the same crowd that the other Pokemon bring (or maybe with the National Pokedex being cut it'll actually appeal to a whole new demographic of Pokemon fans).

Want: 7%

Only the legendaries so far look like they'd fit in Smash design wise even though 1 of them is actually an anime swordfighter, but I'm not really fond of the idea of a Sword and Shield Pokemon in Smash this late into the stage since they have yet to set an impression on me to want them in Smash. I do really like how the non-Pokemon characters look, but considering Pokemon Trainer is the only human Pokemon character in Smash, it's highly unlikely we'd see someone like Nessa or Allister in Smash if Cynthia isn't even a spirit in the game.
-------------------------------

Predictions:
Sword Belmont: 11%
Axe Waifu: 20%
Lowkey Tragic Blue Edgelord: 4.1%
Smug Deer Dude: 4.1%

-------------------------------
Noms:
Zhao Yun x10
Concept: Devolver Digital Rep x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance: 10%
Maybe I'm being generous, but I don't think this is impossible. Pokemon has gotten the special treatment before in the base game, so DLC could work as well, depending on when the designs were finalized. Though if we take Rex and Arms into account, it's not that likely.
Want: 100%
I couldn't care less for the stupid Dexit thing. Pokemon is one of my favorite video game franchises period, and having a game on the Switch is going to be great. Plus, while we haven't seen all of them yet, the new Pokemon lineup includes some of the best ones yet, like Sobble, Wooloo, and Alcremie. This could be a good way to show off the improvements to the series.

Abstaining on Melmetal

Nominations: Brian (Quest 64) x10

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

I'm going abstian on Melmetal.

8th Gen Pokémon.
Chance 5%:Considering Pokémon Sword/Shield is coming to fall 2019, I doubt the smash team would have time to implement one the main Pokémon to be playable for the fighters pass considering the deadline being February 2020.
Want 5%: I rather wait for them until sword/shield is released just to see how the new Pokémon fight in a battle.

Nominations: Gex X6

 

[Icedragonadam]

Melmetal

Chance: 0.01%

The last base newcomer was a Pokemon. The Fighter's Pass is incredibly likely to be all 3rd party characters, Melmetal's spotlight in terms of promotions is also over right now.

Want: 0%

Please just no more Pokemon newcomers right now. We already have enough already.


8th Gen Pokemon

Chance: 1%

Yeah I don't think any promotional 1st party characters will be in the pass. They're more likely to be stand alone DLC characters since I doubt they would come with a stage if Corrin is anything to go by.

Want: 0%

Just like Melmetal. Just no more Pokemon newcomers right now please.

My prediction for 3(or 4?) Houses is the same.

Edelgard: 12.44%
Byleth: 10.33%
Dmitri: 1.55%
Claude: 1.33%


Nominate Velvet Crowe x10

 

[KingofPhantoms]

GoodGrief741 from what I can tell, you're to the one who's currently handling this thread's nominations, so maybe you could help me out and answer a question of mine?

I stopped posting here several months ago due to the fact that most characters I wanted to rate have been rated already, and also because many of the other characters I saw in the queue afterward were either characters I knew very little about, or were just repeats of previous ratings. With all that considered, I just lost interest.

That being said, I would like to start participating in this thread a little more often again. I don't think I've posted here since April 1st earlier this year. I did make a post for that event, which granted many extra nominations for those who followed the post guidelines of that day's ratings, and I did indeed followed the guidelines myself. Would the extra nominations I earned from making that full post that day still count? Would I still be able to use those extra noms, now?

 

[Cosmic77]

Abstaining on Melmetal.

Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance: 40%

I don't think it's as unlikely as people are assuming. We already have Luigi's Poltergust, Joker's grappling hook, and data that suggests Kasumi may have been planned at one point, so clearly Sakurai and his team are looking ahead to a certain extent. Game Freak announced plans for Gen 8 at E3 2017, so if Nintendo/Sakurai wanted to pull a Greninja, I'd say they could've done it.

Want: 90%

I'm legitimately surprised by the number of scores below 5% here. I know it might be too early for us to be doing this, seeing how we only know 15 Gen VII Pokemon, but why is everyone so against another Pokemon? Unlike FE, Pokemon have a pretty good track record with being unique. Most of the Pokemon characters feel completely different from the rest of the cast, so I have faith in the next rep being unique as well, whoever that might be.

Feels like most people are either...

1. Against the idea because they're focusing on the number of Pokemon already in Smash, as if that makes the character any less unique.
2. Against the idea because they have no interest in SwSh and would rather assume spot #4 and #5 are something "more exciting".

Anyways, I'd love to see Zacian or Zamazenta get in Smash (if you want to know why, you can check out their support thread). I won't give my want score a perfect 100% because there's nothing that guarantees the Legendaries being chosen over other Pokemon, but I'm certain I'd be intersted in whichever Pokemon Sakurai chose.

 

[Neosonic97]

I don't think Melmetal is "too late" for DLC

If Rex was too late, then Melmetal (or ANY Gen 8 Pokemon, for that matter) almost certainly is. Let's not forget that Meltan was announced nearly a full year after Rex's game was released, let alone confirmed to be in development.

Feels like most people are either...
1. Against the idea because they're focusing on the number of Pokemon already in Smash, as if that makes the character any less unique.
2. Against the idea because they have no interest in SwSh and would rather assume spot #4 and #5 are something "more exciting".

For me, it's more the point that there isn't really adequate representation for generations 2, 3 and 5, so I think we should give THOSE proper representation first (No, I do not count Pichu as adequate representation for Gen 2, given how it's a Pikachu semi-clone).

 

[TheCJBrine]

Oof, I thought Xenoblade Chronicles 2 was a 2016 release, but it came out December 2017.

Maybe he was too late...though, that didn’t stop Corrin in 2015.

I don’t really care, though, either way; that part of the November Direct seems confusing however.

 

[Neosonic97]

Oof, I thought Xenoblade Chronicles 2 was a 2016 release, but it came out December 2017.
Maybe he was too late...though, that didn’t stop Corrin in 2015.
I don’t really care, though, either way; that part of the November Direct seems confusing however.

Fire Emblem Fates had already been out in Japan for nearly six months when Corrin was announced for Smash.

 

[3BitSaurus]

If Rex was too late, then Melmetal (or ANY Gen 8 Pokemon, for that matter) almost certainly is. Let's not forget that Meltan was announced nearly a full year after Rex's game was released, let alone confirmed to be in development.

Yeah, but base game has one deadline, DLC has another. Remember, the DLC was already decided near the time of the final Direct. Melmetal was officially revealed before that.

Rex was too late because when his game entered production, Ultimate was already past the character selection process in the pre-production, which was right after Smash 4's DLC ended, if Sakurai's old tweets are anything to go by.

I don't think a Gen 8 Pokémon will happen, but I also don't think it would be "too late" for specifically the DLC selection. It's a bit short on time, but it's there. Any other Pokémon, though, seems really improbable. Even with Corrin, we got a few months of Fates advertisement before he was revealed, so any Pokémon revealed after the launch of Ultimate is not in a good spot.

 

[Cosmic77]

If Rex was too late, then Melmetal (or ANY Gen 8 Pokemon, for that matter) almost certainly is. Let's not forget that Meltan was announced nearly a full year after Rex's game was released, let alone confirmed to be in development.

I think you're confusing "too late" with "bad timing".

Sakurai was choosing and negotiating the DLC characters back in 2018, so Rex could've easily been picked. However, even if we assume he would've been the first character revealed, we're looking at roughly a year and a half since his game was released - a game from an admittingly small series that would appeal to far fewer people than the likes of Hero or Banjo.

If there was ever a point when Sakurai felt obligated to include at least one first-party character in this pack, I highly doubt Rex would've been the one he'd end up choosing. Adding him for promotional reasons is almost pointless now, and I'm sure Sakurai could've predicted that the demand for him would drop significantly once Ultimate came out and he wasn't considered a shoe-in.

 

[GoodGrief741]

GoodGrief741 from what I can tell, you're to the one who's currently handling this thread's nominations, so maybe you could help me out and answer a question of mine?

I stopped posting here several months ago due to the fact that most characters I wanted to rate have been rated already, and also because many of the other characters I saw in the queue afterward were either characters I knew very little about, or were just repeats of previous ratings. With all that considered, I just lost interest.

That being said, I would like to start participating in this thread a little more often again. I don't think I've posted here since April 1st earlier this year. I did make a post for that event, which granted many extra nominations for those who followed the post guidelines of that day's ratings, and I did indeed followed the guidelines myself. Would the extra nominations I earned from making that full post that day still count? Would I still be able to use those extra noms, now?

That's strange, I've kept a list of those with extra nominations and you don't seem to be on it. I still have the results of that April 1st thing, so I'll check that to see if I've missed anything.

But, to answer your questions, yes! Nominations don't expire, so if you have some from back then that you haven't used then you can still use them.

I'm legitimately surprised by the number of scores below 5% here. I know it might be too early for us to be doing this, seeing how we only know 15 Gen VII Pokemon, but why is everyone so against another Pokemon? Unlike FE, Pokemon have a pretty good track record with being unique. Most of the Pokemon characters feel completely different from the rest of the cast, so I have faith in the next rep being unique as well, whoever that might be.

Feels like most people are either...

1. Against the idea because they're focusing on the number of Pokemon already in Smash, as if that makes the character any less unique.

People don't like being advertised to. That's just a fact of life. With us getting a Pokémon every single game, seemingly by mandate, always from the latest title, people are going to start feeling angry that Pokémon don't have to play by the same rules as other characters.

Also the 'well they're unique' argument holds no water. There's hundreds of characters not from Pokémon that could be unique, so you need something apart from that to stand out.

Remember, the DLC was already decided near the time of the final Direct.

The DLC was decided at some point before the final Direct. We don't have confirmation that is was anywhere close to that date.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Melmetal:
Chance: 1% As in, anything's possible.
Melmetal is the early release Pokemon of Gen 8, and like Togepi, Marril, Bonsly and Munchlax I fully expect it to make an appearance next game as a Pokeball Pokemon. As a playable though? I just can't see it happening.

Melmetal is impressively somehow already old news despite being the newest Pokemon we have access to, having released a year prior to Sword and Shield's upcoming release. The Pokemon company has stopped using it to advertise anything, which goes to show how disposable the Pokemon of the week system Game Freak insist on using for Smash each time really is.

At this point in time I imagine Gamefreak are more likely to push the Galar starters if anything as unlike most the generation releases they'll at least be pushed as the faces of the generation like they have been for every other generation.

Want: 0%
Pokemon representation in Smash Bros is...honestly awful and probably the series I think handles newcomers the worse.
No Pokemon really gets the chance to prove themselves as being able to maintain any kind of popularity before being thrust into the limelight and whilst Sakurai's struck gold a few times with Lucario, who stuck around as a face of the series for longer than just his gen, I wonder if Inciniroar will end up like him or whether he'll be like Jigglypuff or Pichu and just sort of be there in future games because he once showed up to promote the latest game.

Oh, right, Melmetal.

Melmetal is frankly one of the most forgettable Pokemon designs I've ever seen to the point I genuinely forgot about it until the title of the thread mentioned it. It seems my attention has shifted to Scorbunny, Sobble and Grookey. Not even exaggerating, the only notable thing about Melmetal was appearing in Pokemon Go years after it's huge global success had died down.

Say what you will about Fire Emblem inclusions being as bad, but I'm at the point where I at least remember the existence of the four main cast members of Three Houses whilst I just find the dozens of Pokemon designs we're introduced to, as different as they are, utterly forgettable and throwaway of recent.

Gen 8 Mon:
Chance: 10%
I can see it happening. Pokemon is one of the very few Nintendo IPs that give a whole new selection of characters that could be easily whipped up into a whole new Spirits Board without having to get creative.

That said, I do still think we're going to be third party exclusive for the Fighters Pass. Whilst Pokemon have a higher chance than most other first parties they're far from likely.

Want: 1%
Damn...what happened between me and Pokemon? I used to be the biggest fanboy of the franchise between Gen 1 and Gen 5 and now Pokemon's below Mario, Zelda, Kirby and even Fire Emblem in my favourite Nintendo franchises.

Thus far only Scorbunny has appealed to me from Gen 8, and even if he ended up being Sakurai's choice instead of Grookey as everyone predicts, there's a heap of Pokemon that deserve the Smash invite more in my humble opinion.

Including, but not limited to: the ever reoccurring antagonist Meowth of Team Rocket fame, the ever popular Eevee who even got a titular game to themselves and fellow fire starter Blaziken who has managed to retain his popularity five generations after his initial release, which many other Non Gen 1 starters simply haven't managed to do.

This is the sort of thing I want from my Pokemon Smasher; someone with lasting popularity and fame. Unfortunately we're inevitably going to get a shill pick for the latest game whenever the next Super Smash Bros. arrives.
Even Fire Emblem didn't do that this time round with Chrom having proved his popularity and staying power amongst the fanbase before getting his chance another day.

Sword and Shield is probably going to be a relative flop compared to what Game Freak were predicting for it due to the whole National Dex PA backlash.
I'm really not sure I want to be reminded of the time Pokemon forgot it's entire franchise's appeal was in 'catching them all'.

Nominations:
Lara Croft X 10

 

[3BitSaurus]

The DLC was decided at some point before the final Direct. We don't have confirmation that is was anywhere close to that date.

Yeah, no, that's what I meant. My bad.

 

[Sid-cada]

Melmetal

Chance - 0% - Not only is it on a game moving past, it's also competing with a full set of third party characters hinting at no first parties. They do not seem likely.

Want - 0% - Kinda boring, honestly. Not that interesting to me.


Sword/Shield Pokemon

Chance - 5% - I can't count it out yet, but it's super unlikely. After last time, I think Sakurai would be more hesitant towards the idea of making a slot for a game that isn't released yet. While pressure may come in, I think he will be more likely say "no."

Want - 0% - Can we wait to see who will be popular first? I'd at least like to know what we are getting beforehand...


Nominations

Cadence X10

 

[Cosmic77]

People don't like being advertised to. That's just a fact of life. With us getting a Pokémon every single game, seemingly by mandate, always from the latest title, people are going to start feeling angry that Pokémon don't have to play by the same rules as other characters.

For starters, people pick and choose which "advertisements" they have a problem with. No one seemed to have any issues supporting Inkling, Rex/Pyra, and Decidueye, but Corrin, Isabelle, and Incineroar got a mediocre response at best and are still disliked by a number of fans.

Second, you make it sound like Pokemon are only getting in because of promotional reason. Popularity aside, we're talking about the franchise that's the undisputed king of character options. If Sakurai's goal is to flesh out the roster with unique and iconic characters, why on earth would he pass up one of the dozens of new Pokemon that come with each new Gen?

Also the 'well they're unique' argument holds no water. There's hundreds of characters not from Pokémon that could be unique, so you need something apart from that to stand out.

Unique on top of Pokemon being an extremely iconic franchise that pretty much everyone would know.

One of the reasons a Gen 8 Pokemon would get in is for the same reason Sakurai chose PP. There were hundreds of other options, but Sakurai wanted a character most people would know. A Mario character was one of his best bets, and he saw potential in PP.

 

[3DSNinja]

Mythical
Chance:0%: Too recent. Plus sounds better as a pokeball.
Want:75%: He sounds cool. Plus a fighter focused on metal would be pretty lit.
Bad Game
Chance:0%: See above. Also no real stand outs.
Want:0%: Sword & Shield are games that legitimately make me mad. Please don't include it in smash.
Nominations: Specter Knight x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

No one seemed to have any issues supporting Inkling, Rex/Pyra, and Decidueye, but Corrin, Isabelle, and Incineroar got a mediocre response at best and are still disliked by a number of fans.

First off, Isabelle doesn't really belong in that latter group. She had a huge fanbase going in.

Second, Inkling wasn't an advertising pick, Splatoon came out three years before Ultimate.

Third, well, yeah, obviously if people like the character they won't mind the reason they get in. That... Goes without saying.

Second, you make it sound like Pokemon are only getting in because of promotional reason.

The Pokemon that are getting in are doing so because of promotional reasons. There is zero benefit to picking a Pokemon from the latest Gen when there are Pokemon from previous Gens with tons of support.

Why make a gamble on an unproven Pokemon when you have characters like Meowth or Eevee who are super iconic and are guaranteed a positive reception? The answer is they're gambling on new Pokemon because they want to promote them.

If Sakurai's goal is to flesh out the roster with unique and iconic characters, why on earth would he pass up one of the dozens of new Pokemon that come with each new Gen?

For variety's sake. We already have 10, after all.

One of the reasons a Gen 8 Pokemon would get in is for the same reason Sakurai chose PP. There were hundreds of other options, but Sakurai wanted a character most people would know. A Mario character was one of his best bets, and he saw potential in PP.

Comparing a Gen 8 Pokemon with what is probably the most widely hated newcomer in Smash history doesn't really help the idea seem sound.

 

[3DSNinja]

Just for the record, Corrin is definitely the most hated newcomer, not Plant.

 

[Cosmic77]

The Pokemon that are getting in are doing so because of promotional reasons. There is zero benefit to picking a Pokemon from the latest Gen when there are Pokemon from previous Gens with tons of support.

Why make a gamble on an unproven Pokemon when you have characters like Meowth or Eevee who are super iconic and are guaranteed a positive reception? The answer is they're gambling on new Pokemon because they want to promote them.

Just about any Pokemon Sakurai could choose would be subject to criticism from the fans. We could get Meowth or Eevee like you said and there'd still be a ton of people who would be upset. Some would complain that we're getting more Gen 1 representation, and others would complain because they want modern Pokemon Gens to get represented on the roster.

Not everyone interprets Pokemon newcomers the same way as you. I'm actually rooting for newer, unexpected, and unorthodox choices over "classic Pokemon who got in because they've been plastered in ads for the past 15 years".

For variety's sake. We already have 10, after all.

Because the number of reps in a franchise determines how unique another character from said franchise could be.

If variety is your main concern, then maybe we should ignore oversaturated franchises like Mario, Pokemon, and Zelda and just focus on smaller ones like Pikmin, KI, and XC. Obviously we shouldn't do something as silly as considering the popularity of a franchise.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Geez, it looks like it's not just the Dexit thing that's wrong with the Pokemon fanbase. Can't any of us agree on SOMETHING!?!?

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Just for the record, Corrin is definitely the most hated newcomer, not Plant.

Nope, Corrin is at least the star of his/her own game and is an actual character (maybe a poorly written one in some people's eyes, but a character nonetheless). While he was seen as a marketing pick, he at least had that as a reason (again, a poor reason in some people's eyes but a reason nonetheless) rather than being added purely for the random LULZ like Plant. If I had to cut one of them, I'd cut Plant in a heartbeat.

If variety is your main concern, then maybe we should ignore oversaturated franchises like Mario, Pokemon, and Zelda and just focus on smaller ones like Pikmin, KI, and XC. Obviously we shouldn't do something as silly as considering the popularity of a franchise.

Well, Mario and Pokemon are certainly oversaturated at this point, they're more than well fed in terms of newcomers for the past couple games.
Zelda is the one that could use a newcomer that isn't just another version of Link, and its the franchise that hasn't had a non Link newcomer since Melee, so I certainly wouldn't lump it together with Mario and Pokemon in terms of oversaturation, which have each gotten net gains of 4-5 characters since Brawl in terms of number of fighters, whilst Zelda had gotten pretty much none if it wasn't for separating Zelda and Sheik and adding back Young Link, neither of which I would consider meaningful gains compared to the wealth of original movesets and characters the other two got.

Thing about Pikmin is that the Captains really don't have any discernible differences. All I could see is Alph as an echo and the rest of the captains as alternate costumes a la the Koopalings. For KI, I could see Medusa or Viridi as another echo, but again, that's pretty much it.
And Elma and Rex are the obvious picks for a 2nd Xenoblade rep.


But that's the thing, we really don't need another Pokemon character for this game when there are so many franchises like Zelda, Kirby, and DK that are missing someone essential. Pokemon is already blessed enough to be guaranteed a new character in every game, it doesn't need even more beyond that. We're pretty much guaranteed to get another one in Smash 6, and we'll probably get Waluigi and/or Toad in for Mario as well, and I'll be fine with that in future games. (Less certain are the aforementioned series getting newcomers). But for Ultimate, there are so many 3rd Parties and underrepresented 1st Parties that need the spotlight far more.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Geez, it looks like it's not just the Dexit thing that's wrong with the Pokemon fanbase. Can't any of us agree on SOMETHING!?!?

Dexit is whats wrong with Gamefreak, not the fanbase. People have a right to be mad about SwSh looking terrible. The fact the presentation has more frame drops than XY had is already bad. It is sad that in terms of animations, Pokemon Stadium 1 and 2 are more technically advanced and proficient. But then they gut the dex. Now, pokemon has been gutting features for a while, and personally I have always been reasonably frustrated about that 99% of the time (Examples: Cutting Contests, No Battle Frontiers anymore, cutting the PSS in Gen 7 and replacing it with Festival Plaza which is terrible, Cutting the Pokeathalon which imo was a ton of fun, not having pokemon follow you until LGPE again, etc). But the dex was something that unified all the games, it was a franchise still about wanting to catch them all.

Removing a good chunk of the dex (and megas but thats another can of worms) is something that there is no real excuse for. Making quality animations? The animations in SwSh are lazy, especially compared to the past two gens. Balance? Gamefreak does not give a damn about balance. If they did, Mega Kangaskhan would not have existed. The models were futureproofed, so there is no excuse for them being too hard. The only excuse is laziness on GF and TPC part.

Now onto my ratings.

Melmetal 0% Chance

Honestly as time goes by, Melmetal just seems likely to be forgotten. His presence in Pokemon Go is noteworthy, but in all honesty in retrospect I find Meltan more likely. That doesnt make either of them likely.

Gen 8 Pokemon 5% Chance

If we get an advertizing rep, Pokemon and FE are the best choices. But the pass looks mainly to be third party.

Melmetal 0% Want

I am mad since this thing is hard to get. I like the idea of a Pokemon GO rep, but one where it is super annoying to get without LGPE is honestly a big turn off. Petty but true.

Gen 8 Pokemon 0% Want

I have soured so much on SwSh I would actually be upset if we got one. My history with pokemon has gotten more bitter since Gen 6, and this feels like the nail in the coffin. I am so done with Pokemon right now, the choices the franchise is making has made me honestly sour on getting a newcomer. I would rather us get something like Meowth and Eevee that celebrates the better years of pokemon than a shill pick (No i am not a genwunner. Gen 4 for life)

Protoman x 5