Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Sari]

Here is some music to get into the Three Houses mood:

♪ Fire Emblem Three Houses Music ♪

[There are no actual spoilers in this spoiler post so don't worry]

Spoiler: Three Houses Music

I tried to get Fodlan Winds (the early battle theme) but Nintendo has been taking down a lot of the videos so this is all I could get without spoilering myself.

I'll post my ratings in another post.

EDIT: Wow, the Nintendo ninjas really do exist. Of the three songs I posted, only one of them hasn't been taken down yet.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Well, haven't played Three Houses yet, but I do plan on doing so. Since I'm the one counting nominations and such, I would like to ask everyone to try and fulfill the two sentence requirement outside of whatever spoilers are posted. Don't want the game spoiled!

Regardless, my ratings

Chance: 1% (for all of them)
I maintain that Three Houses came out too late for consideration. The latest we have do far is Luminary from DQXI, a July 2017 game. I did up the chances to 1% because if I recall, Three Houses was announced in March 2018 and looked pretty far into development. So it is possible that the Smash team got concept art before the DLC selection was finalized.

But as always, my boy Rex kills it. Rex is very, very popular. In Japan the dude is constantly top three most wanted in polls. Rex's game released in December 2017, way before Three Houses. And yet Rex is not DLC. I'm sorry, but the only explanations I can come up with is that the cutoff date for DLC was before Xenoblade 2 came out, or they're just not doing Nintendo DLC. I lean towards the latter.

Plus after Corrin, I don't think Nintendo would want to repeat that.

As for want, I'm abstaining. Obviously I think Byleth should be the one representing Three Houses, they're the protagonist and representing a game through someone that isn't the protagonist is dumb (looking at you Robin and Lucina). Three Houses is apparently a pretty great game so I'm all for it getting representation, but I'd like to wait and play it to see if Byleth themselves leave an impression (and how they're received by the fandom at large).

Nominations: Crono X5

Predictions: Tekken rep 15.4%
SNK rep 18.23%

 

[Sari]

Some general thoughts on whether or not this will happen:

If we're going to be getting a first-party character for this wave it will probably be someone from Three Houses. Love or hate Fire Emblem, it's one of Nintendo's biggest series as of now especially with Fire Emblem Heroes being a massive hit for them. The game was first publicly shown off during E3 of last year and Sakurai has sometimes went off of concept art alone to design a character. He did this in SSB4, creating a whole moveset for Greninja in May 2012 when X/Y was first publicly revealed in early 2013. If Nintendo intended to promote one of their big upcoming games then time wouldn't have been much of an issue in this case. Three Houses is also the third most digitally purchased Switch game as of this writing (the first two being Minecraft and Mario Maker 2) so a promotional rep could definitely happen if we get a season 2.

On the downside though, Fire Emblem fatigue in Smash is a thing that even Sakurai is aware of (hence why he was hesitant to add Corrin into SSB4). Yes we did get Chrom in Ultimate, but only as an echo and after immense fan demand (not to mention that he was originally planned for SSB4 anyway). Also Sakurai has said that he usually doesn't add characters unless their game is out, which is why he didn't decide on Incineroar until he got his hands on Ultra Sun/Moon. Granted this shouldn't be too much of an issue since Three Houses is already out, but Sakurai may have wanted to try it out personally before deciding on whether to add someone. As for personal beliefs, I'm still a believer that most - if not all - of the characters for this wave will be third-party.

So in short while I don't think this is impossible I also don't think we are likely to get a Three Houses character for this wave. Ok now for the individual chance/wants...

----------

Edelgard

Chance: 10%
Edelgard was definitely the most popular character when the game was first shown off and seems to be the most significant of the house leaders. The worldwide ingame statistics also show that she is the most popular house leader as well as the most popular unit in the game overall. Claude and Dimitri are the 2nd and 3rd most popular house leaders respectively. Because of this I think Edelgard is easily the most likely of the individual house leaders especially if we get a season 2 wave of DLC. That said though, there is a chance that she could get Azura'd and be ignored over the actual main character of her game.

Want: 80%
Edelgard is without a doubt my favorite of the three leaders and I chose Black Eagles as soon as I got the game. Her design is cool and the fact that she can use axes would make her stand out from all of the current FE characters who use swords. Only reason this isn't higher is because there are still a few other FE characters I'd want over her, specifically Celica and Lyn.

Byleth

Chance: 10%
I think it could go either way with Byleth or Edelgard. Whereas Edelgard seems to be more popular, Byleth benefits from being the actual main character of the game.

Want: 70%
I initially didn't care about Byleth at all, but over time I've grown to them (well except the female design of them which I'm still not a fan of). Having a character with a whip sword in Smash would be awesome.

Dimitri

Chance: 1%
I don't see us getting a Three Houses character that isn't Edelgard or Byleth. They have a lot more going for them that it'd feel odd for Dimitri to make it in over the two.

Want: 5%
Dimitri is my least favorite of the house leaders and I'm not a fan of the people in his house. While I wouldn't mind a lance fighter, I definitely would not want him to make it in over Edelgard.

Claude

Chance: 1%
Like I said with Dimitri, I think it's Edelgard/Byleth or bust. I just don't see Claude making it in as the sole Three Houses rep.

Want: 15%
I'm more interested in Claude/Golden Deer than Dimitri. A character whose moveset revolves around their bow would be pretty cool.

----------

SNK rep chance prediction: 18.68% (with only 2 slots left and no new writeup from me, this will definitely be lower than last time)
Tekken rep chance prediction: 21.72% (if my ramblings in the newcomer discussion thread are anything to go by this rating will be higher than Heihachi's last chance score)

----------

Nominations:
Concept: Rockstar Games rep x5

 

[3BitSaurus]

Haven't played the game yet, but I'll be pairing the characters together based on what little I know.

Byleth and Edelgard
Chance: 10%
The main character for TH and one of the more pushed House leaders (though Claude seems to have hogged the spotlight after release proper). I think that if Nintendo were to put one advertisement character in the FP, it would be one of these two. Even so, I don't really see them making it, if only because I feel they wouldn't bring as much new content. On the other hand, maybe Nintendo considers this an easy way out? Who knows...

Want: 0%
I know, I know, I'm probably being too harsh, but... even if I do end up liking the game and these characters... I'd rather Nintendo just waited for them to become actually popular before putting them in Smash. The Awakening crew has that to their names, at least.

Plus, I'm really not hopeful that they will implement any interesting FE mechanic in Byleth or Edelgard like they did with Robin. I think that if this happens, they'll probably just take the easy way out and implement them as regular sword characters instead of using their whip sword/axe. Swordies are easier to make, can't argue too much against that...

Dmitri and Claude
Chance: 5%
They haven't received too much push from Nintendo as far as I'm aware, but they still got their screen time in the trailers. Claude in particular seems to have received a big popularity boost. Even so, I don't think this is enough to bring them to the Great Fray, even if compared to Byleth and Edelgard.

Want: Abstain
Similar to Byleth and Edelgard. Although they wouldn't be swordfighters... I just think I know too little about them at the moment to make a proper judgement. So I'm not giving a number on this one.

Note: in the event that we get post Fighter Pass content, the chance for all four characters would become much higher. I think it's important to make this distinction here.

Predictions:
Tekken Rep: 70%
SNK Rep: 25% (I'd rank them way higher, but I know the boards sleep on SNK, so...)

Nominations:
Kyo Kusanagi x5

 

[Mushroomguy12]

As for want, I'm abstaining. Obviously I think Byleth should be the one representing Three Houses, they're the protagonist and representing a game through someone that isn't the protagonist is dumb (looking at you Robin and Lucina). Three Houses is apparently a pretty great game so I'm all for it getting representation, but I'd like to wait and play it to see if Byleth themselves leave an impression (and how they're received by the fandom at large).

Robin and Lucina are both co-protagonists with Chrom. It's like how Fire Emblem 7 had Lyn, Eliwood, and Hector.

 

[Perkilator]

Byleth

Chance: 0% (depending on conditions)
Needless to say, probably too late for a Three Hosues rep. And that's assuming this fighter pass is the only one, you never know.

Want: 90%
Yes, he's another sword character (and the Belmonts are the whip masters) but Byleth has more than enough to distinguish them from even Corrin; heck, I'm even working on such a moveset on Google Docs, it was really easy to come up with it.


Any other House leader

Chance and Want: Abstain

The only House leader I could care for regarding newcomer potential is Edelgard. And I say that as a Golden Deer.

Noms: Idolm@ster rep concept x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Melmetal/Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon pre-Byleth/Edelgard/Dmitri/Claude

Heavy (Team Fortress) x198
Crono x160
Kyle Hyde x160
Cadence (Crypt of the Necrodancer) x160
Kamek x149
Saber (Fate) x132
Concept: Rockstar Games rep x130

150 - 101

Ellie (The Last of Us) x120
Rundas x115
Gene (God Hand) x115
Velvet Crowe x115
Ninten x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105
Specter Knight x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
Terry Bogard x95
[Rerate] Micaiah x95
Adeleine (Kirby) x95
Frogger x85
Glover x85
9-Volt x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Captain Rainbow x77
Jin Kazama x75
Blaze the Cat x70
Concept: More Bosses x70
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x70
X (Mega Man) x68
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x60
Brian (Quest 64) x60
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x60
Papyrus x51
Decidueye x51

50 - 25

Kyo Kusanagi x50
Lara Croft x50
Concept: Another western character x50
Kratos x40
Proto Man x40
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x40
Amaterasu x40
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x38
Gooey (Kirby) x37
Concept: DLC challenges x35
Earthworm Jim x33
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Qbby x30
Cooking Mama x30
Gex x27
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x25

Under 25

Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x22
Reporter & Wrestler x20
Tora and Poppi x20
Johnny Silverhand x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x20
Concept: Grookey's final evolution x18
Marx (Kirby) x17
King Boo x16
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Black Shadow x15
Concept: Another joke character x13
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x12
Mike Jones x11
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Medabots rep x10
Sir Arthur (Ghosts 'n Goblins) x10
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x10
[Rerate] Tetromino x10
Magolor x9
Toon Zelda x8
Gordon Freeman x8
Concept: At least one fighter in the Pass is not third-party x8
Blacephalon x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
Rash x5
Concept: League of Legends rep x5
Serious Sam x5
Concept: A character outside the Fighter Pass x5
Goemon (Mystical Ninja) x5
Urbosa x5
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x5
[Rerate] Sans x5
Lizalfos x4
Concept: No More DLC x3
Concept: More Fighter Passes x3
Boss: Sans x2
Sub-Zero x2
Concept: Street Fighter Mii costumes x2
Rad Spencer x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
Pappy Van Poodle x1
Dr. Eggman x1
Toon Zelda & Tetra x1
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x1

Saber rejoins the top seven, passing Rockstar Games rep and kicking Ellie off. Saber is now sixth and Rockstar Games rep seventh.

Ninten and Specter Knight slip past 100 noms.

Brian and Reimu Hakurei soar past 50 noms, while Kyo Kusanagi, Lara Croft, and Another western character reach the mark. They are all now safe from the purge.

Gex and Zhao Yun vacate the under 25 club.

Today we have two new concepts: Devolver Digital rep, with 5 noms, and More Fighter Passes, with 3.

Robin and Lucina are both co-protagonists with Chrom. It's like how Fire Emblem 7 had Lyn, Eliwood, and Hector.

Eh, I don't feel like it's the same as FE7. There every protagonist had kind of like their own story. With Awakening it's clearly Chrom's from beginning to end, with Robin and Lucina being more deuteragonists.

 

[BowserKing]

Three Houses Rep

Chance: 50%. Given that Corrin was added as DLC in Super Smash Bros 4 to promote Fire Emblem Fates, a new rep would be inevitable. Edelgard is the most likely rep that would make it in however, due to being an Axe user, amoung others.

Want: 65%. I honestly think a new Fire Emblem Rep would be a good choice, and Edelgard would bring more variety to the table. She would also be fun to play, as with the other fighters.

Noms: 3 for Concept: At least one fighter in the Pass is not third-party and 2 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion

 

[EarlTamm]

Byleth
Chance: 10%
Main protag of the game, so that is kinda their advantage. If there is ever another pass where first parties get the spotlight, this rating will be much higher. Same can go to the rest.
Want: 80%
I like Byleth well enough, and the weapon they wield is pretty cool. It may be sword, but it's ability to extend into a chain whip does have some potential.

Edelgard
Chance: 15%
Is the most popular character and route in the game, was pushed by Nintendo very much, and is quite important no matter what route you choose. Heck, the main theme of the game is a song sung from the perspective of Edelgard.
Want: 90%
I feel like they could do some rather cool things with Edelgard moveset wise. I also really liked her story in Three Houses and her character.

Dimitri and Claude
Chance: 5%
Rather overshadowed by Edelgard in attention and popularity. Claude has gotten a spike in attention recently, but it wasn't enough to beat Edelgard popularity wise.
Want: 50%
I don't find much wrong with them, as they could both bring some rather cool movesets. It would nice to finally get some lances in the game, as well as a bow centric moveset, but I am just not as interested in these ideas as what Byleth and Edelgard can offer.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Byleth:

Chance: 5% - I don't think we'll get any Nintendo characters as DLC, and if we do I don't think it'll be Byleth, who overlaps with what we already have in the Fire Emblem cast. He's the main character of all of the game's routes though, and he has a fairly unique weapon, so he's at least got that going for him, but I don't think it's enough.

Want: 0% - I don't hate Byleth as an avatar character, he's completely inoffensive, but I don't really care about the prospect of him in Smash either. I personally don't think he brings enough new things to the table, we already have two other FE avatar characters, his design feels like more of the same, and while it wouldn't be exactly the same, Simon already fulfills my needs for a whip character.

Edelgard:

Chance: 10% - Probably the most likely first party character, although that's not saying a whole lot. Still, she stands out from the rest of the FE crowd both visually and in that she uses an axe, she's one of the few strong female candidates at present, and she's been pushed pretty hard in Three Houses' promotional material. Again, I don't think we'll get a Nintendo character though, and maybe her only being the leader of one of the game's routes is a bit of a put off, although I don't think it means much since they've been perfectly comfortable in choosing between three Pokémon starters in the past two games now.

Want: 50% - I'd be sort of indifferent to her, Black Eagles is my house of choice, and I've come to really like her as a character after getting further into the game, but that doesn't always translate to me wanting someone in Smash. Would I play her often? I'm not really sure, it'd really depend on what they did with her moveset, and since the gameplay of Three Houses opens up so many possibilities with her I really can't say whether she'd potentially be someone I'd have fun playing.

Dimitri and Claude:

Chance: 0% - I struggle to see why either of these two would be picked above either Byleth or Edelgard, I suppose there's a microscopic chance that we as a community have latched onto the wrong house leader, like we mistakingly put our chips on Decidueye over Incineroar, but I'm comfortable in saying neither of these two will happen. I suppose Claude would at least be our first archer character, but to me that just makes him seem really difficult to implement, the idea of Decidueye was at least that of an unorthodox archer.

Want: 0% - Like with Byleth, I don't hate either of these two, but I haven't really had the chance to get to know them that well since I picked the Black Eagles, so I've only gotten the surface level impressions of them. Even then I don't really find either of their designs or prospective gameplay appealing.

 

[Ornl]

Any FE rep
Chance: 0% - Want: abstain
- (any character from series already represented) I expect a newcomer to come from a new series ("new to the series" can be interpreted as each character will require new rights-of-use permissions.). Also, Rex and ARMS rep have been rejected as too recent characters. The reason for Rex's exclusion is that the game in which he first appears was announced after the planning. So a character appearing after Xenoblade Chronicle 2 can't join Ultimate.
- (any medieval fantastic JRPG rep) Hero is the most 'ultimate' hero from med-fan JRPG IMO. I think Hero closes the way for other heroes of the same genre.
- (any FE rep) Fire Emblem has already 7 rep. There has already been Corrin, new first-party Fighter, as the last/second-to-last Sm4sh DLC. I think it was an commercial experiment and that it won't happen again. Fire Emblem can't steal a DLC slot again. Because I think there would be an anti-hype worse than for Sm4sh.

Nominations - Concept: Another western character x5.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Eh, I don't feel like it's the same as FE7. There every protagonist had kind of like their own story. With Awakening it's clearly Chrom's from beginning to end, with Robin and Lucina being more deuteragonists.

I'd make a case for Robin at least. After all you're technically playing through Robin's eyes in Awakening making him very much a central character and the main plot revolves around Chrom and Robin's friendship trying to prevent the future where Robin is over taken by Grima, killing Chrom and ending the world.

Also you get an instant game over if either character dies in battle which I don't think is the case for Lucina?

I'm going to withold my ratings on the Three Houses cast until probably Monday. I don't have the game yet, but my girlfriend is bringing it around to play this weekend so I'll wait until I'm familiar with them all first.

I will say this though; after Three Houses has turned out to be a mega success that has nearly doubled even Awakening's opening sales, if it doesn't get a character in as DLC for Ultimate; Byleth is most likely getting in the next Smash. If Three Houses turns out to be the most successful Fire Emblem game to date, I'd say s/he has earnt it too.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I'd make a case for Robin at least. After all you're technically playing through Robin's eyes in Awakening making him very much a central character and the main plot revolves around Chrom and Robin's friendship trying to prevent the future where Robin is over taken by Grima, killing Chrom and ending the world.

I think there's a distinction to be made between a protagonist and a point of view character. In the Sherlock Holmes stories, Watson is the point of view character and narrator, but the main character is undisputably Holmes. While Robin is the viewpoint, and audience surrogate, and has a very important role in the story, I maintain that he doesn't fulfill the protagonist role.

(It's very untraditional for an RPG to have the avatar character not be the main protagonist, which is something I applaud Awakening for doing, it certainly makes the story more interesting)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Imma post a write up tomorrow most likely. If ya want my personal thoughts, I personally think only 4 characters are likely that are first party at this point (without echos): Waluigi (Yes, really), Rex, Bandana Dee, and Edelgard. I will explain why tomorrow.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Imma post a write up tomorrow most likely. If ya want my personal thoughts, I personally think only 4 characters are likely that are first party at this point (without echos): Waluigi (Yes, really), Rex, Bandana Dee, and Edelgard. I will explain why tomorrow.

Which 1st Parties do you think are likely with echos?

It's OK if you want to save that for your post tomorrow, btw.

 

[Vrbtm]

Three Houses reps (collectively):

0% Chance
Not only did this game come out too late, I think the Fighter Pass is going to be 100% guest fighters.

0% Want
The last thing Smash needs is more Fire Emblem.

 

[Troykv]

Hmm... Fire Emblem Three Houses... If there are characters after the Fighter Pass, the possiblitiy of a fighter from this is game it's likely and should at least be take in mind... Of course this depends in a hyphotetic case, so the chances of First Party Characters still suffer.

Anyway let's rate them.

Byleth:

Chance: 20%

Byleth benefits of two things, recency and protagonist status; the potential with Byleth as a fighter it's more hit or miss having elements that are uncommon to Smash related to the Sword of the Creator and the unique properties their class has. But he also has several elements that aren't exactly unique, specially considering the fact their weapon works like a whip too; which it's one of the Belmont's niches. I can't personally think an interesting moveset for him right now; but hey, that it's me being lazy I guess.

Want: 30%

The character looks quite cool in each gender; but I don't have attachment to them, and I'm a bit cynical about the possibility of them being a playable character because of the not-so-unique aspects of it's character design and moveset potential.

Edelgard:

Chance: 20%

Like Byleth she benefits from recency, unlike Byleth she isn't the main character of the overall narrative, but pretty important regardless (it's alongside Byleth the character that is always relevant for the game as far as I know), being pretty much the poster girl of the game, being shared her importance in pretty much every piece of advertising related to the game, she is a character that has became popular even before the game's release.

Edelgard in gameplay offers some curious elements depending how far you want to be with spoiler stuff; like Byleth she has a weapon that while not 100% unique has its appeal as a uncommon pick (with the only character that fight with a weapon similar to hers being Dedede and Ike, and it's kind of a stretch).

She is a similar position to Byleth overall, but in my opinion she looks more appealing.

Want: 70%

Yeah why not?! While I haven't actually played the game in my own, and had became attached to the character of Edelgard and her motivations through all the spoilers I have seen because of my desperation of knowing about the game. Damn, she is incredible and I'm okay with her appearing in Smash (this would be a 90% want if she arrives with a Micaiah Mii costume).

Dimitri and Claude

Chance: 10%

These characters I'll rate them at the same time because they're in pretty much the same situation compared with Edelgard and Byleth... Overall less used in promotional material, but also have the appeal of using weapon that aren't common in Smash Bros. Spear and Bow... So hey, they would work.

Want: 40%

I'm feeling similar in this aspect compared with Byleth. They would work wonders but I'm a bit cynical about it.

_____

Predictions:

Tekken Rep: 59.5%
SNK Rep: 25.5%

Nominations:

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5

 

[ze9]

Three Houses guys.

Chance: 3%
The rating I usually give to every 1st party character. I just think they're not happening. If there's a second pass, their chances would skyrocket pretty high I guess, just like other 1st party characters like the Astral Chain cops, Rex or Dixie.

Want: 0%
Enough is enough, no more Fire Emblem please. They don't even look like they could be kinda unique like Robin and Corrin. And even if they could, almost everyone could and those development resources would be better spent on literally anything else, like give the Plant a friend and make a playable Boo or something.

 

[Artix]

Edelgard

Chance: 10%
Out of all the 4 Three Houses characters, Edelgard seem to be the most likely candidate for a Three Houses rep because of her popularity and the fact that she uses an axe instead of a sword. However, the fun ends there as her chances of getting in the Fighter's Pass are very low. Not only the timing was little off, but the fact that the Fighter's Pass will most likely be all 3rd parties still remains. Still, they might have a chance if Nintendo pushes for a second wave of Fighter's Pass, but right now? It seems not likely.

Want: 50%
I like Edelgard when she was first revealed and I'm not going to deny that. I haven't played the game yet, but once I got my hands on it,
I will definitely pick her. As for Smash, she would definitely be a breath of fresh air from all these swordfighters we're getting in FE alone and that's a huge plus for me.

Byleth

Chance: 10%
It's pretty much a 50-50 situation between Byleth and Edelgard for Three Houses rep. Byleth is the main character of Three Houses, so there's a slight chance that Nintendo might go after him, but Edelgard has popularity and a unique weapon on her back, so this kinda hinders his chances a bit. But like I said, the probability of first-party characters in the Fighter's Pass are quite low, so I don't expect them to show up anytime now.

Want: 25%
I'm indifferent towards Byleth. While I like both the male and female designs, I have no real attachment to the character. I would not want Byleth in Smash not because of him being a swordfighter, but because he might not bring something unique into it's moveset.

Dimitri & Claude

Chance: 5%
Dimitri & Claude are the least likely candidates for a Three Houses rep. While their weapons are quite unique in Smash (Lance for Dimitri and Bow for Claude), they're not as popular as Edelgard so their chances are really low compared to Edelgard and Byleth.

Want: 5%
As much as I like them in Smash, Edelgard stood out more when it comes to being a Three Houses rep. Though, they had a huge plus for me for bringing a weapon that no one in Smash really uses and they might bring some unique movesets on their own.

Predictions:
Tekken Rep: 55.29%
SNK Rep: 21.38%

Nomination:
Saber (Fate) x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Melmetal
3.62% Chance, 10.78% Want
Last time we rated it it got 11.48% Chance and 23.15% Want. It was literally the first character rated for DLC, and everything since, from timing, to the third-party-ness of the Pass, to other, better received Pokemon being announced, hurt its scores.

Gen 8 Pokémon
12.73% Chance, 17.89% Want
Last time we rated this it got 10.49% Chance and 16.16% Want. I'm surprised the scores actually improved. Maybe it was the reveal of Sword and Shield, with its great new Pokémon and its close release date, that helped. I'm surprised the Dexit thing didn't tank the scores, but I guess it didn't really matter to Smash fans or the people it did matter to were already burnt out with Pokémon beforehand.

Despite the want increase, Gen 8 Pokémon is still the least wanted concept.

The following have extra nominations

Artix 5
Awakining 5
DaUsername 50
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 40
Nemuresu 10
Neosonic97 5
RealPokeFan11 5
Ridrool64 5
shocktarts17 5
Ramen Tengoku 5
Ultomato 5
@Velveeta Dream 5

Byleth

Chance: 10%
It's pretty much a 50-50 situation between Byleth and Edelgard for Three Houses rep. Byleth is the main character of Three Houses, so there's a slight chance that Nintendo might go after him, but Edelgard has popularity and a unique weapon on her back, so this kinda hinders his chances a bit. But like I said, the probability of first-party characters in the Fighter's Pass are quite low, so I don't expect them to show up anytime now.

Want: 25%
I'm indifferent towards Byleth. While I like both the male and female designs, I have no real attachment to the character. I would not want Byleth in Smash not because of him being a swordfighter, but because he might not bring something unique into it's moveset.

Byleth isn't a swordfighter, he wields a sword/whip hybrid.

 

[Ridrool64]

Okay is it just me, or does anybody else get Sonic Heroes vibes from the trio? Dimitri for Speed, Claude for Flight, and Edelgard for Power. Don't ask how Byleth fits into this.

As an aside, for uniqueness sake, I believe that any of them would have Combat Arts and Abilities (or Crests) reflected in their moveset.

Edelgard Chance: I think Edie is the likeliest of any of these four, but only barely. Let's just say that she's not only the most prominent of her quartet as far as I can tell, what with the Black Eagles campaign getting the most attention, but she also provides something that would make her not too difficult to work with while still being far more different than any of the lords before: an Axe, not a Sword.

Byleth Chance: Byleth has protag power, but marketing seems to be pushing Edie over them. Still, they are very prominent figures and I wouldn't be too surprised to see them. However I feel Sakurai might actually straight-up go "すみません" to them since they're technically not all that different from Corrin, albeit neither is Edelgard.

Both of them have the same issue that is that many are experiencing Fire Emblem fatigue, and it's harder to justify when once again, this is us paying extra for them and their stage, songs, and spirits. Especially considering how controversial Corrin was.

So, Edie gets a 25%, and Byleth gets a 20%.

Dimitri & Claude same chance: 0%. Sorry, not Byleth and not Edie. They'd be neat, but... they aren't quite as promotional as either of the other two since the Blue Lions and Golden Deer don't get as much attention.

All four want: Even though I pledge allegiance to the Black Eagles, this game is super ****ing phenomenal. If ANYBODY here has ANY INTEREST in playing this game, go for it! It's the bees' knees! Oh my god I love this game to bits and pieces!

...unlike Arle, however, none of the ruling territories of Fódlan, nor the protag, are characters I want this time around. Byleth, Edelgard, Dimitri and Claude at least all bring something new aesthetically and even mechanically, but there is one issue they cannot change. It is that... they aren't, well... that necessary. I'd be fine with a stage based on the monastery and like 15 3H songs but I wouldn't give two if these guys only got in as four Ace class spirits. Three Houses should take the time to prove it's got what it takes to push Fire Emblem into the mainstream for good. I'd think they could all have evolutions, too, but as to what range from minor (the lords) to major spoilers (Byleth), though Smash is wont to spoil people.

But their game is ****ing awesome. **** Fire Emblem fatigue, I'd be more than welcoming of any of these four, even if I think the game is fine without them. 50%.

P.S. Bernie spirit pls and thank you. P.P.S. Sunflower x 5. Tekken character won't break 10.20%, and SNK character will probably see 15.52%.

 

[FancySmash]

Despite the fact that the game is out, I'm still looking at this from the view of the planning period of DLC. It'd be impossible to arbitrarily decide on adding one now, when programming would've needed to start earlier for coding to be done by February 2020.

Goodbyleth my friend

Chance: 5%
If any FE3H character were to be chosen, it'd most likely be the protagonist character. I still don't think it'd be super likely, but in the grand scheme of things versus the other 3, Byleth has the easier time getting in. Of course, I'm still iffy on the development time of the DLC, as well as only being third party characters. Here's the thing, if they knew they'd be doing DLC, but at the same time decided to make Rex, a character too late for Ultimate's base roster, a Mii Costume instead of saving him for DLC, I can only infer that 1st Party Characters were never even considered a possibility for DLC, much less one that releases after Xenoblade 2. Add to that, Sakurai came out and said FE is a bit fatigued in Smash, things don't look so good. That said, he does really like FE, so I guess maybe bias could force his hand? I'm not sure, still just doesn't feel like a thing that could happen.

Fly like an eagle, Edelgard

Chance: 3%
Edelgard has the popularity vote of the four, and that looks appealing considering what characters we've gotten so far, but at the same time, I wouldn't say Edelgard is a gaming giant like the others we've seen. Persona has had massive popularity, even outshining the series it spun off of. Dragon Quest is a huge name in Japan, and it's following isn't to shabby here either. Banjo has had fan support for years, and is almost an honorary Nintendo character. Not to say Fire Emblem isn't popular, but Edelgard herself isn't well known, at least not yet. This will come in to play soon...

Those other two

Chance: 1%
Yeah, I hate to group Claude and Dimitri together, but these two really have nothing going for them. They aren't the protagonist character, they don't have Edelgard's popularity, and they have the cons that Byleth/Edelgard had to boot. There's nothing I can say about Dimitri that I can't say about Claude and vice versa. Here are the 1%s that I promised with the Pokemon day.

Want for all 4: 0%
Yes yes, I know that all four have been released, and that we have a chance to know these characters now before they would be shown off for Smash Ultimate's fighter pass, but there's still one problem. They would've had to have been chosen before Three Houses even released. That still would've left a bad taste in my mouth, especially when other Fire Emblem characters from past games are still wanted. It'd be a matter of choosing "relevance recency" before honoring history and attachment by fans. Black Knight for one, which a lot were hoping would be an Ike echo before becoming an Assist Trophy, or Hector, or Micaiah. I don't really like when the Pokemon series does this, I really don't want to see every series do this as well.

Predictions:
Tekken: Well, Namco is once again here to help, but considering the issues with Heihachi... I'm not sure how well this'll go. 19.7%
SNK: Not as well known as say Street Fighter or Tekken, but respectable in it's own right I suppose. 18.99%

Nominations:
Captain Rainbow x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Edelgard

Chance 20 - I like her chances best out of all the 3 Houses reps. Even though the 3 house leaders are supposed to be equal Edelgard always stood out to me more than the other two. There's a variety of reasons as to why that could be, but none of them really matter in the long run. Standing out from a pool of potential candidates is always good when it comes to Smash. She's been the one the buzz has been mostly about as well.

Want 80 - Yeah, I'd like this. Edelgard has been one of my favorite characters in 3 Houses so far(which is saying something since I really like everyone in the Black Eagles right now other than one person.) She wouldn't be just another generic swordsman that people throw their arms up at, and since the purpose of 3 houses is to mold students as you see fit she could either pull from many different classes or stick to axes and magic.


Byleth

Chance 15 - I think he/she is right behind Edelgard in most likely for a 3H rep. We do already have 2 user characters in the game in Corrin and Robin, which could help or hurt based on how you see it, but I feel like it's probably a good thing here. Byleth could fight off the lolanimeswordsman sterotype in the same way I mentioned Edelgard could above. I have Byleth below Edelgard for the moment due to her being far more popular and being speculated on a lot more.

Want 60 - Wouldn't hate it. There's stuff to work with here. I'd like Edelgard more because she has more of a personality


Claude
Chance 1 - Really don't see this happening. He's less popular than Edelgard, and can't see a reason we'd get two characters from this game. I don't think he has no chance because he's got a fun personality and a moveset that would be different to the FE characters who already made it in the game but I can't see it happening.

Want 30 - I haven't played any of Claude's path yet so I can't comment on him much, but he seems like a fun dude and his moveset would be different. Wouldn't want him over Byleth or Edelgard though.

Dimitri
Chance 1 - Same issues as Claude has apply here. Being less popular of the house leaders does him no favors. To my knowledge he doesn't have as much personality as the other two(I could be wrong, haven't done his path either), and there isn't a lot to do with a spear/lance user, which is his base form.

Want 20 - Havent touched Dimitri's path yet so I haven't really had any attachment to him yet. He feels kinda bland compared to the other house leaders, doesn't have the same moveset potential as the others do, and pulling from all the different classes feels like something that would go to Byleth over him

Noms
Kratos x5

 

[Nemuresu]

Three Houses Quartet:

Chance: 0% (to all four): To sum this up, let's think about it for a moment:
*Nintendo so far has only delivered third-party characters, not only that, while people keep discussing whether Reggie's statements mean something other than being new, I firmly believe everyone comes from brand-new franchises.
*These characters don't even work in a promotional point of view because by the time they come to Smash, Three Houses will be already five to seven months old, so what's the point of promoting such game then? And it's not like Nintendo doesn't know how to promote games with Smash, since Hero's presentation had quite the publicity for DQXIS, a game that releases in September.
*Rex got omitted, both as a base roster character and as a DLC. Some claim that doesn't mean much because DLC is a different ball game, but here's the thing: he was requested, Xenoblade 2 was a success, and we should not forget that the game received content all the way 'till the end of 2018; so by no means was his game "irrelevant" when Smash's DLC was decided.
*Some people like to claim that Nintendo knows better and won't listen to complaints about FE characters, but now I have to ask: if they so do not care about what fans or people say, then why are Joker and Banjo in this game? They definitely looked at trends and requests just to include them.
*And also, there's that nice little argument where people say we don't know what characters Nintendo gave to Sakurai, to try to explain why would they ever include a FE character. And I apologize if I sound rude (not my intention), but that's just playing with nigh-baseless speculation that could be used in favour of almost any character.
Am I afraid of the irony? Yes. But let's be honest, who isn't? Who isn't actually afraid of a character they don't want appearing in this DLC? If they happen, then let it be, I'm ready to go down with my ship.

Want: 0% (to all four)-I sound like a broken record about these guys, but I don't care about what they offer. I'm sick of them. They're not fun to play for me. You know who else uses a whip sword and would be more preferred than them? Soma Cruz and Ivy Valentine. A spear? Bandana Waddle Dee can cover that. A bow? We already have Link and Pit, so what can this one offer? An axe? I'm gonna sound like a hypocrite right now, but I'm pretty sure Hector would do that job way better.

Predictions:
Tekken character: 22.49 (I fear that people will still use the VA argument to discount Heihachi even if supporters bring up that he's still gonna be a mobile KOF game)
SNK character: 16.72 (Nothing much to say about this other than people getting a bit skeptical for only 2 spots being left in this DLC)

 

[Neosonic97]

Three Houses, Four MCs

Chance: oof.
There are multiple factors that scream 'NO' to any of the four MCs of Three Houses, and they're as follows:

1. The Fighter's Pass is looking to focus on Third-Parties, if the fact that all three of the currently known characters are third party characters is any indication.

2. Bad timing. It's too late to pull another Roy (as the game's already out), but FE Three Houses is very recent- almost certainly too recent to be considered otherwise, if Rex is any indication (Bare in mind, as previously stated by another, Rex is stupid popular in Japan, consistently placing Top 3 in polls- and yet he's not DLC).

3. FE has better reps already for each weapon-type the 4 MCs cover, save for MAYBE Byleth's Creator Sword. Hector beats out Edelgard any day, and I'd much rather have Ephraim over Dimitri, and Bows alone aren't really enough to base a full moveset around, so for a multi-weapon wielder, I'd much rather have series staple Anna, over Claude.

Want: double oof

Pretty much everything I said in my Chance rating also applies very much to my want rating. And while I feel Byleth's creator sword MAY have something to set him apart from other FE Swordlords, I'd much rather have somebody who isn't an FE Swordlord. We already have 6 of those in Smash (Marth, Lucina, Roy, Chrom, Ike, Corrin. Robin's the only FE character who ISN'T a Lord archetype), and Fire Emblem Fatigue is a thing.

Predictions:

Tekken character: 20%

SNK Character: 15%

Noms: Reimu Hakurei rerate x10

 

[osby]

(Marth, Lucina, Roy, Chrom, Ike, Corrin. Robin's the only FE character who ISN'T a Lord archetype)

Ike and Corrin aren't Lords, you know. There's no reason to single Robin out.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Three Houses Rep

Chance: 15%

If we are getting a first party character it will be either from Pokemon or Three Houses. I think ti's a toss up. However, even with Three Houses on its own merit it might have been announced too late and while Sakurai has went off on concept art in the past like with Greninja, I'm not sure if he is willing to do it again, depending on how much info Nintendo would have been able to give him about the game and the characters abilities and weapons. The characters having unique weapons like an axe and lance would make them stand out from the crowd.

With that said, even back in Smash 4, Sakurai said that he felt there were already too many Fire Emblem characters (https://twinfinite.net/2015/12/super-smash-bros-roster-sakurai-fire-emblem/ ). And Chrom was popular and easy to make into an echo fighter. Plus, I am a firm believer that all the remaining dlc characters will be third party, especially when 3 out of 5 of the fighter pass characters are third party. A Three Houses rep could very well happen, but I don't think its very likely.

Want: 10%

Sorry, I'm not a Fire Emblem fan and I think there are too many of those characters in the game already. Having an axe or lance user would be cool, but other than that I'm not interested.

 

[Ridrool64]

Ike and Corrin aren't Lords, you know. There's no reason to single Robin out.

Sure, their class name isn't Lord (except Ike in PoR promotes to Lord, why isn't that an alt in Smash), but from a story perspective (Main Character, Protagonist) and a gameplay perspective (Game Over when they lose, unique class that others, at best, have extremely limited access to, if they can access it at all) Ike and Corrin are the Lords of their games.

As an aside, I consider Robin a Lord since they have a unique class nobody else can access and if they die it's Game Over, and they're a major fixture in the story. So in a sense, Fire Emblem has only been represented with Lords.

 

[osby]

Sure, their class name isn't Lord (except Ike in PoR promotes to Lord, why isn't that an alt in Smash), but from a story perspective (Main Character, Protagonist) and a gameplay perspective (Game Over when they lose, unique class that others, at best, have extremely limited access to, if they can access it at all) Ike and Corrin are the Lords of their games.

As an aside, I consider Robin a Lord since they have a unique class nobody else can access and if they die it's Game Over, and they're a major fixture in the story. So in a sense, Fire Emblem has only been represented with Lords.

If you change the definit of Lord to be whatever you want, you can prove anyone is a Lord. This doesn't support your argument in any way.

Plus, why would adding main characters into Smash is a bad thing? It only makes sense.

 

[Ridrool64]

I don't mind that FE only has main characters/Lords whatever. It's mostly a semantics argument anyway, so. I'm gonna drop this before it gets out of hand.

 

[ze9]

Fire Emblem is pretty well represented all things considered, it's just that at this point literally anything else would be more interesting.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Byleth

Chance: 20%
I'll admit, I'm being a bit generous. This is mostly because there is a precedent for a character from the newest FE getting in as DLC. It certainly helps that Byleth is the main character of the game. Still, it looks like the DLC in this wave will be mostly (if not only) third-party, so that hurts a bit.
Want: 95%
I don't care if it's another sword-user, Byleth has proven to be the most unique one yet. His sword is a whipsword, so it has to have unique properties (and there is no way we're getting Ivy Valentine, just look at her). Also, he can alter the flow of time, or at least rewind it, which can give some unique counters, a la Bayonetta. I think he would be a lot of fun to play.

Edelgard
Chance: 15%
Again, I'm being generous. That being said, she is the one with the most promotion. However, I don't think she's as likely as Byleth, if only because she's not the main character.
Want: 90%
Edelgard is quickly becoming one of my favorite characters in the game. There's just something about her that I really enjoy, especially as I get to know her more. Plus, having an axe could make her at least a little different, though I'm not sure by how much.

Abstaining on Dimitri and Claude. I haven't gotten a chance to know them yet.

Nominations: Concept: Another western character x5

 

[Deleted member]

A Three Houses rep can't be a promotional pick if the game came out months before the reveal
-----------------------
Hoes Mad: Three Houses Edition

Chance: 30%

Is there a lot of Fire Emblem characters in Smash? Yeah. They have at least 7 characters in Smash alongside Super Mario Bros and Pokemon. Not even Legend of Zelda has that much surprisingly. However, it still wouldn't stop the possibility of adding Byleth to Smash as DLC. While Rex and Spring Man were unfortunate victims of bad timing with their games still being in development sometime after Sakurai finalized the roster, Three Houses has the advantage of being in development and released long after Smash Ultimate was released. It's basically perfect timing for another Fire Emblem character to be added to Smash now since this isn't the same situation with Corrin where his game was only released in Japan by the time his reveal came around.

I've heard about Sakurai being hesitant about adding Corrin to Smash 4 as if it's supposed to be the final nail in the coffin for anymore Fire Emblem characters for the Fighter Pass. I don't really see it that way if Nintendo also had a steak in the DLC. For all we know, they could've put Byleth in Smash because of Three Houses. Despite me only seeing glimpses of Three Houses, my biggest takeaways of Byleth is that he's a teacher with a sword whip. People are probably thinking that he can't get in because Simon and Richter are in, but I don't really think that would be the case. The Belmonts may have whips but they aren't able to slash people with them. Because of Byleth's sword whip, he can still offer a unique moveset that neither the Belmonts and Swordfighters can do. There's also potential in Edlegard, Dimitri, and Claude being in Byleth's moveset as specials since they each have different weapons behind them, making him more of a commander type of character. Three Houses also has enough music, environments, and characters that can be used for spirits to possibly warrant a Fighter Pack, so it's not off the realm of possibility.

The biggest issue with another Fire Emblem character in the Fighter Pass however is the same thing that applies with Sword and Shield, and that's appealing to newer demographics. I'm not so sure if Three Houses got a completely new set of fans now, so I might not be counting on them getting a character by that. I still rank it fairly high because unlike Sword and Shield, Three Houses would have garnered a good amount of opinions around the game by the time the next Smash reveal trailers roll around, and with most of the current reception to the game being highly positive, we might not be too far off from seeing Byleth being included.

Want: 49%

I actually think Byleth would be an okay candidate moreso than many other popular swordfighters. I know there's a huge bias against more Fire Emblem characters after Corrin, but after hearing about how positively received Three Houses is currently by reviewers, fans, and even people that haven't played a Fire Emblem game before, I think I'd be okay with seeing Byleth in Smash since I have more interest in playing Three Houses than I do with a game like Astral Chain. Also, it would technically mean Koei-Tecmo got a rep in Smash, so I guess that's a positive for someone that likes K-T.
-----------------------
Edgeguard

Chance: 1%

Popularity seems to be her strongest reasoning for being in the Fighter Pass before anyone else, and I get it. She looks like a great and well written character, and we've never really had an axe user in Smash before. However, I don't think she'll be in the Fighter Pass since she's not the main protagonist. I know a lot of people will point at Chrom & Smash 4 as a counterargument because of his role in Awakening but from what I recall the game is played in Robin's perspective. Edelgard may be incredibly popular but since the game isn't in her perspective, I'm not counting on her being in the Fighter Pass.

Want: 20%

Well, I probably wouldn't be too ecstatic to see any of the House leaders in Smash as a fighter before Byleth. Edelgard may be incredibly popular within the Fire Emblem fandom but popularity isn't always going to convince me to want a character in the Fighter Pass. It'd be like if Camilla got in Smash 4 before Corrin, so I'm not high on seeing Edelgard in the Fighter Pass.
-----------------------
SD Mii Tree

Chance: 0.5%

Unlike Edelgard, Dimitri doesn't really have any sort of popularity for Smash. Because of this, he's incredibly overshadowed by Byleth and her, so Dimitri's rated by half of what Edelgard's rating is for me.

Want: 20%

It's the same reasoning I have with Edelgard, and I'm rating it equally as her because of it. I kinda like Dimitri, but I wouldn't really want to see him before Byleth much like how I feel about Edelgard.
-----------------------
Claude

Chance: 0.5%

God it suck not being as popular as Edelgard. Like Dimitri, no one really talks about Claude for Smash. I can't really find anything else to say that I haven't said yet.

Want: 20%

Well I don't really have any sort of explanation for Claude that isn't the same as Dimitri's and Edelgard's. I will say that I'd like to see him alongside the other 2 in Byleth's moveset and Final Smash though.
-----------------------
Predictions:
Tekken rep: 41%
SNK rep: 19%
-----------------------
Noms:
Nightmare (Soulcalibur) x5
Zhao Yun x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Three Houses Rep

Chance: 0.01%

1.) The reason Corrin was added was because Fates hasn't been released in the West yet so it was the right time to advertise him. Three Houses has already been released.
2.) Sakurai was hesitant on another Fire Emblem rep before the devs encouraged him to put Corrin in.
3.) The pass is likely to be all 3rd party. All of the new 1st party spirits have been through weekly events while the 3rd party ones so far are in the DLC Spirit Board.

Want: 0%

1. Please just no more Fire Emblem Characters right now.
2. And besides there's still plenty of 3rd party series to include that would be far more interesting IMO.

Tekken Prediction: 34.44%
SNK: 27.77%

Nominate Velvet Crowe x5

 

[Kitty-chan]

Three houses characters

Chance: 5%
Isn't the dlc gonya be focused on series nyot yet represented in smash? In that case nyanother FE character seems slim, very slim. Maybe one or two of them will be included in nyanother fighters pass if that seems realistic or just be thrown at us as a bonus gift or the likes nya.

Want: 70% - 75 for Edelgard
I like fire emblem, and would be fine seeing reps from the newest title of the series being added in smash. Of the 4 characters I'd like to see Edelgard most nya.

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

Three House Rep
Chance 10%:I do think a three house rep have chance to be in the pass however it is a small one since the game just came out and I'm not sure if sakurai can start work on the charatecter and finish it by the time fighters pass reach it's deadline(Late July/August 2019 to February 2020,6/7 months to be exact).

Want abstain:I don't know enough about the characters to so say if I want or not, so abstain.

Nominations: Terry Bogard x5.

 

[Calamitas]

Alright, let's see. . .

Bi-leth
Chance: 25%
I'll admit, this is operating under the base assumption that there will be more DLC than just the Fighter's Pass. If there isn't, then the chance plummets right down to zero percent.
Want: 80%
I could go into great lengths about how Byleth has far more than enough to set them apart from other Fire Emblem characters - the Sword of the Creator being a whip sword, magic that operates entirely differently from Robin's, access to any weapon type in the game, punching people - but let's be real here. Trying to convince someone who's not already a FE fan of the merits of a potential FE newcomer for Smash is essentially a moot point. Plus, I wouldn't put it past Sakurai to just ignore a whole bunch of things that could be added to make them unique in favour of just sticking to one weapon type. After all, Ike isn't using axes, and Chrom and Lucina aren't given lances, even though both of these things could've happened.
At any rate, from what I've played so far - up to chapter 15 in Edelgard's route - I really like Three Houses, and would love to see representation from it. Just as long as the music they pick for it isn't just four or so versions of the same song, as it happened ith Fates.

A character whose name sounds to me like she's a 75+ year-old granny living somewhere in the depths of Bavaria, Germany
Chance: 15%
Byleth is more likely, in my eyes. And as much as people just love to go on about how Fire Emblem needs a primary axe user in Smash, I don't think that axes offer fundamentally enough that's different enough to make Sakurai go for her. She of course has the popularity, but that alone doesn't really mean much.
Want: 60%
Wouldn't hate her, but I prefer Byleth. And again, I fear that Sakurai would make her more boring than she could be. After all, she does have a talent for black magic in Three Houses.

Solid Dimitri
Chance: 5%
Not as popular as Edelgard, not as central to the plot as Byleth, and not as heavily featured in the marketing as Edelgard. I don't see him happening before or without Byleth and Edelgard.

What do you mean this guy isn't bisexual
Chance: 5%
Basically the same reasoning as for Dimitri. It doesn't really help that he barely plays a role on the Black Eagles route.

Want: 20% for both Dimitri and Claude
I haven't played their routes yet, so I can't really say. Still, having a primary lance or bow user would be interesting.

Nomating:
Amaterasu x3 and Concept: at least one fighter in the Fighter's Pass is not third-party x2

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Byleth

Chance: 20%
Byleth is the most likely of the bunch because of him being the main protagonist and the Sword of the Creator seems to be a sword-whip hybrid, so I guess he does bring something unique from other swordfighters in the game. However, I really don't think we're getting anyone from Three Houses or any first-party characters in general since the Fighter's Pass seems to be leaning towards third-party characters.

Want: 25%
I've played Three Houses a bit and I'm already liking the character, both the male and female designs are great and the Sword of the Creator looks cool since it's a sword-whip hybrid. But as much as I want him in Smash, there are a lot of third-party characters that I want in first before him. Also, there's way too many Fire Emblem characters at the moment, so maybe next time.

Edelgard

Chance: 15%
In a one-off situation where Byleth is not chosen to represent Three Houses, then I guess Edelgard is the alternative choice. She is very popular of the bunch and she wields an axe, which is something this game completely lacks, so I can definitely see why many people want her over Byleth. However, Byleth is still more likely to represent the franchise than Edelgard simply because he's the main protagonist.

Want: 35%
Out of the three factions, I chose Black Eagles mostly because of Edelgard. I kinda like her design and the fact that she wields an axe is already okay in my book. I prefer her more than Byleth when it comes to Smash simply because she wields an axe, a weapon that this game really needs. But I feel like Nintendo would choose Byleth over her but I wouldn't mind if they chose Edelgard instead.

Dimitri & Claude

Chance: 5%
Dimitri & Claude are the least likely of the bunch. While they do have unique weapons on their back (lance and bow, respectively) like Edelgard, the only reason her chances are a bit higher than these two is because she's the most popular of the three and that really put a dent on both Dimitri and Claude.

Want: 5%
I kinda like both of them, but not as much as Edelgard and Byleth (although I like Claude more than Dimitri). Like I said, they wield weapons that were never seen in Smash and they could bring some unique moveset, especially Claude. However, they're less likely to get in than both Edelgard and Byleth and that's the truth.

Predictions:
Tekken Rep: 28.46%
SNK Rep: 15.81%

Nominaton:
Saber (Fate) x5

 

[Opossum]

Byleth

Chance: 20%

For DLC this is actually pretty high for me. Whip sword with the Sword of the Creator, plus other weapon types. Divine Pulse could also be cool.

Want: 1%
While they'd be cool gameplay-wise, being a mostly silent protagonist makes me far less into them.


Edelgard

Chance: 35%
If I had to bet on one Nintendo owned character getting in as DLC, it'd be Edelgard. Incredibly integral to the story, arguably the face of the game, the theme song (Edge of Dawn) is literally her theme, and

Spoiler

she has the Crest of Flames, just like Byleth, making her one of the two bearers of Fódlan's Fire Emblem.

Add in her popularity and Sakurai saying he wished more main characters would use axes, and I think she's the most likely Three Houses pick.

Want: 100%
Hell yeah. She's a fantastic character, and a moveset built around axes and Battalions would be awesome. And considering Hero kinda took Celica's sword and sorcery niche (RIP), she and Crash are easily my most wanted.

Claude

Chance: 5%
He's a really popular character and we don't have a bow focused character yet. The question is whether his popularity came too late.

Want: 80%
Claude is a wonderful character. Plus I'd love a bow user after Decidueye didn't make it. Plus Joe Zieja.


Dimitri

Chance: 2%
Probably the least popular of the three despite his importance. And even with that importance, he's arguably less important than Byleth and Edelgard. I just don't see them going for him over the others.

Want: 30%

Honestly my least favorite of the house leaders by a good margin. Not a bad character, mind you, but when you're comparing him to Edelgard and Claude he just feels so much less interesting. To me, at least.

 

[Perkilator]

Oh, btw, I finished my Byleth moveset not too long ago. What does everyone think?
https://www.deviantart.com/herotrainer7/art/Smash-Moveset-Byleth-808124293