Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[BowserKing]

I'll change mine a bit

Edit: Fixed

 

[Predictabo]

Never posted in this thread so I hope I'm doing it right

Tekken rep

Chance: 30%
+ Iconic franchise, pretty much the face of 3D fighters
+ Bamco doesn't have a second rep despite being a huge JP company
+ Already considered for a previous game of the series
- Is already referenced in one of the Pac-Man moves
- Has competition in the form of other Bamco IPs
- Proved hard to adapt in the previous try according with Sakurai

Want: 50%. Heihachi and Kazuya are really fun characters

SNK rep

Chance: 35%
+ Former platform holder
+ Out of all fighting game companies, the one that influenced Smash Bros the most, concept and gameplay-wise
+ Even if most of their games are from the same genre they have all different gameplay mechanics that can be used in Smash Bros to make the characters unique
+ Good relations with the other JP companies, including Nintendo and Namco Bandai
+ Easy to work with
- Has competition on the form of other JP devs like KT
- Not that popular on America

Want 100%. Wanting Terry since the Snake Brawl reveal

Terry Bogard x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Never posted in this thread so I hope I'm doing it right

Tekken rep

Chance: 30%
+ Iconic franchise, pretty much the face of 3D fighters
+ Bamco doesn't have a second rep despite being a huge JP company
+ Already considered for a previous game of the series
- Is already referenced in one of the Pac-Man moves
- Has competition in the form of other Bamco IPs
- Proved hard to adapt in the previous try according with Sakurai

Want: 50%. Heihachi and Kazuya are really fun characters

SNK rep

Chance: 35%
+ Former platform holder
+ Out of all fighting game companies, the one that influenced Smash Bros the most, concept and gameplay-wise
+ Even if most of their games are from the same genre they have all different gameplay mechanics that can be used in Smash Bros to make the characters unique
+ Good relations with the other JP companies, including Nintendo and Namco Bandai
+ Easy to work with
- Has competition on the form of other JP devs like KT
- Not that popular on America

Want 100%. Wanting Terry since the Snake Brawl reveal

Terry Bogard x5

You doin it right. Generally want more for want but you have a lot for chance so it’s cool.

 

[Nemuresu]

SNK rep:
Chance: 40%-Maybe I'm a bit too enthusiastic, but considering NISA's statements regarding a collaboration between Nintendo and SNK, the fact that many of their games have been released on Switch and even the new ones like SamSho and KOF XIV are on the way too, and that SNK's including as many guests on other fighters; all leads me to believe that having one of their characters in Smash is very likely.
Want: 80%-I'm a big fan, mostly for KOF and Fatal Fury, but I'd love to see one of their characters nonetheless. And even if we limit the choices to characters that aren't already in other fighters, the choices aren't bad (Kyo, Athena, Nakoruru and Marco come to mind).

Tekken rep:
Chance: 50%-It's one of the best-selling fighting game franchises out there. Sakurai has acknowledged that by mentioning Heihachi as considered character. Sure, it has a problem regarding moveset, but Sakurai can always change views on it and try, just like he's done so many times already.
Want: 90%-Heihachi's one of my most wanted characters, so I'd love to see him in the game. Jin and Kazuya would be okay too, more if they can use their Devil transformations.

Predictions:
Jibanyan: 5.30
Agumon: 3.62
To be frank with these two, I don't see them as likely as other third-party characters.

 

[SKX31]

SNK rep:

Chance: 45 % (up from before, mind)

The chance score's for this fighter's pass, by the way - it could rise higher in the future. I'll also focus on King of Fighters.

One of the reasons why I've been bringing up the Switch's upcoming Chinese recently a lot is SNK's very strong position there. Getting a SNK rep in this pass makes a lot of sense for both companies, and would generate a lot of hype in the Middle Kingdom with Smash's release there. SNK's also, luckily enough, not seen as a "greed" pick anywhere AFAIK - SNK has the history and the "niche" status elsewhere (niche outside of China and Latin America) to help it bring both hype and curious eyes. It also helps that SNK has a good relationship with Tencent (The megacorp who's going to distribute the Switch in China): Apparently Tencent has helped SNK develop games like King of Fighters with a MOBA mode. No, really, King of Fighters with a MOBA mode. Alongside an anime that got renewed for two more seasons. Huh, TIL. I'm gonna tag you again Sari , this might be helping things further.

Of course, there's no confirmed timetable for the Switch's Chinese release. I'd wager that it'll release around early-mid 2020 because the Chinese gov has not approved the hardware yet. But Nintendo and Tencent are already working on it, and although Smash has not been named I'm pretty certain it will be one of the first games released there. The four games submitted for approval so far - Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8, Super Mario Odyssey and Pokémon: Let’s Go - could build further hype for Smash easily. Smash is not outright submitted yet, but I find it very likely,

Want: 35 %

Never played a SNK / KoF game myself, but it's much easier to see and pick them up nowadays. Honestly, I'm getting pretty curious, and can see the appeal in a KoF character. I'd actually welcome it, but not be super hyped.

Tekken rep:

Chance: 30 %

This can go either way really - and although most eyes are on Heihachi (for very understandable reasons) I kinda think his son (Kazuya) or grandson (Jin Kazama) are easier to work into Smash because they have the Devil Gene and moves that can come from that - flight, lasers etc. Heihachi, unluckily, lacks it. That said, there's also the "too difficult to work in" aspect, but as others have stated, Sakurai can change his mind on this. Tekken has been worked into 2D before, but I don't blame Sakurai on that - only Project X Zone has been on a Nintendo platform, and those two games are kinda niche. The other 2D appearances are somewhat forgotten now: (IIRC) PlayStation AllStars and SFxT.

Otherwise Tekken has what it takes to become Bandai Namco's second franchise, and I wouldn't be surprised if it makes it.

Want: 40 %

Likewise never played Tekken - but I really like loads of its aspects. The style? Check. Intense fighting action? Check. Dumb but hilarious fighter ideas? Triple check.

Also, I just want to see Heihachi do to Mario what he's already done to his relatives and Kratos: Strap them on a goddamn rocket and launch it. And laugh out loud.

Noms:

Rockstar Games rep x5

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

Tekken Rep
Chance 60%: A Tekken Rep Is probably the most likely Namco rep since it has sold 47 million copies, Namco's relationship with Nintendo and the franchise has been on a Nintendo system at least once(Tekken Tag Tournament 2 for example),however Sakurai has said that Heihachi was difficult to adapt during smash 4's development so I can't rate it higher that 60% because of that.
want 65%:I haven't play tekken but has heard of it/seen gameplay of it, and I did enjoy Heihachi in psasbr so I would like to see what Sakurai does with one of the Tekken characters in a platform fighter.
SNK Rep
Chance 55%: an SNK rep is has good chance of getting in they have made games on Nintendo consoles, their games received positive to very positive reviews and they sold pretty well and they even made a crossover game with other company(SNK vs. Capcom),The only downside is that SNK is not as well know in the west unlike in japan.
Want 60%:I only game I played from the company Is metal slug but I don't mind any protagonist/Darkhorse from any SNK franchise since SNK does deserves a rep in smash.

Nominations:Lara Croft X5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Tekken rep
Chance: 5%
With the costume theory basically dead it's no longer guaranteed Namco's getting another character. Not to mention some stiff competition from the Dark Souls and Tales series. Heihachi may have been considered back in Smash 4 but his Pacman taunt cameo makes me think Sakurai still couldn't find a way to make him work. The likes of Kazuya and Jin could potentially work better as fighters but if they weren't on the drawing board back them I have doubts they are now.

Want: 1%
Would be an understandable inclusion. Still, not personally interested.

Abstaining on SNK

Jinbanyan: 6.79%
Agumon: 7.53%
Adeline x5

 

[Ornl]

Tekken Rep
Chance: 0% - Want: abstain

Spoiler

Sakurai has already considered Heihachi (so and Tekken). He certainly has already considered a lot of characters, whether it's interview or not. The fact that he has already accepted characters he had previously refused doesn't increase the chances of the characters considered.
About Heihachi/Tekken, there have already been missed 3 opportunities.

- The first missed opportunity was in Sm4sh base game, to represent Bamco. Pac-Man had been turned down in Brawl, but Heihachi also was problematic because of his gameplay. They were confronted, and it was Pac-Man who was chosen to represent Bamco.

- The second missed opportunity was in the Sm4sh DLC, because Capcom had a 2nd Fighter, which is just from a fighting game, but not Bamco. Yet I remind that Sakurai had considered Heihachi. Now, the appearance of Tekken rep can be compromised because of Ryu. Sakurai wants to offer unique characters with different levels of fun and enjoyment in DLC.
First, the first character DLC from a traditional fighting game has created originality. It was special because the original Smash Bros concept was to be able to circumvent the characters from traditional fighting games. Having many characters from JRPG, even if it isn't original, isn't the same thing as having several characters from fighting games.
Then, Famitsu is a very popular magazine in Japan, for which Sakurai participates in a column every 2 months. It appears in the Top 20 favorite fighting games (2017) by Famitsu readers that the games where Ryu appears total 1358 votes. The games where Tekken appears total 136 votes, 10x less. Although a poll can't be representative of an entire community, it does indicate that there is a preference gap.
Finally, regarding the movesets, Ryu and Heihachi each have different moves. But in the Smash-Bros-like PlayStation Battle Royale All-Stars, Ryu and Heihachi have merging attacks, and that Heihachi has fewer personal characteristics, fewer specificities.
Ryu trailer / Heihachi trailer

- The third missed opportunity was that several Mii Costumes had upgrades in the Utimate basic game (Inkling, Daisy, Chrom, Isabelle and K. Rool). No third party character has had this upgrade. Why would one of them be privileged as the last or before-last DLC and not in the basic game? Now I think it's too late for upgrades. Because the direction of the DLC is to propose characters "new to the series", like Joker, Hero and Banjo. A presence - or past presence - of a second/third-party series as any Trophy, Sticker, Spirit, Assist Trophee, Item, Mii Costume, Music, Stage or Taunt requires permissions, a right to use. A first right to use for any series is "new to the series". I think a renewed right to use for this series is no longer "new to the series". And...

There is already a "Tekken rep" in Ultimate.

SNK Rep
Chance: 0 - Want: abstain.
SNK wants a new console with 2 new games developed by SNK each year. I don't think Nintendo wants to promote its reborn competitor. The choices of the DLC were made well before this announcement. If Nintendo had wanted SNK content, I think the compagny would have negotiated exclusives content to compensate for the lack of general hype. Nintendo wanted to recover SNK excusivity, starting with SNK Heroines: Tag Team Frenzy, but now this story is now a thing in the past, because the console war continues.

Nominations: Concept: Another western character x5.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Tekken rep
Chance: 5%
With the costume theory basically dead it's no longer guaranteed Namco's getting another character. Not to mention some stiff competition from the Dark Souls and Tales series. Heihachi may have been considered back in Smash 4 but his Pacman taunt cameo makes me think Sakurai still couldn't find a way to make him work. The likes of Kazuya and Jin could potentially work better as fighters but if they weren't on the drawing board back them I have doubts they are now.

Want: 1%
Would be an understandable inclusion. Still, not personally interested.

Jinbanyan: 6.79%
Agumon: 7.53%
Adeline x5

While RTC is personal opinion and everyone is entitled to theirs... I have to question why people think Namco's chances (and Capcom's, for that matter) are this much lower just because of Costume Theory not being correct. I mean, both companies still have an entire arsenal of iconic IPs to pick from. Do people really think it reduced their chances that much?

... by this point, I know it's futile to argue, but regarding SNK's return to making consoles... . That's all I'm saying. Besides, at the last investors meeting, SNK basically confirmed that most of their current high-profile titles are coming to the Switch in the future, including KOF XIV and SamSho.

So no, I don't think any of this matters.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Tekken Rep
Chance: 0% - Want: abstain

Spoiler

Sakurai has already considered Heihachi (so and Tekken). He certainly has already considered a lot of characters, whether it's interview or not. The fact that he has already accepted characters he had previously refused doesn't increase the chances of the characters considered.
About Heihachi/Tekken, there have already been missed 3 opportunities.

- The first missed opportunity was in Sm4sh base game, to represent Bamco. Pac-Man had been turned down in Brawl, but Heihachi also was problematic because of his gameplay. They were confronted, and it was Pac-Man who was chosen to represent Bamco.

- The second missed opportunity was in the Sm4sh DLC, because Capcom had a 2nd Fighter, which is just from a fighting game, but not Bamco. Yet I remind that Sakurai had considered Heihachi. Now, the appearance of Tekken rep can be compromised because of Ryu. Sakurai wants to offer unique characters with different levels of fun and enjoyment in DLC.
First, the first character DLC from a traditional fighting game has created originality. It was special because the original Smash Bros concept was to be able to circumvent the characters from traditional fighting games. Having many characters from JRPG, even if it isn't original, isn't the same thing as having several characters from fighting games.
Then, Famitsu is a very popular magazine in Japan, for which Sakurai participates in a column every 2 months. It appears in the Top 20 favorite fighting games (2017) by Famitsu readers that the games where Ryu appears total 1358 votes. The games where Tekken appears total 136 votes, 10x less. Although a poll can't be representative of an entire community, it does indicate that there is a preference gap.
Finally, regarding the movesets, Ryu and Heihachi each have different moves. But in the Smash-Bros-like PlayStation Battle Royale All-Stars, Ryu and Heihachi have merging attacks, and that Heihachi has fewer personal characteristics, fewer specificities.
Ryu trailer / Heihachi trailer

- The third missed opportunity was that several Mii Costumes had upgrades in the Utimate basic game (Inkling, Daisy, Chrom, Isabelle and K. Rool). No third party character has had this upgrade. Why would one of them be privileged as the last or before-last DLC and not in the basic game? Now I think it's too late for upgrades. Because the direction of the DLC is to propose characters "new to the series", like Joker, Hero and Banjo. A presence - or past presence - of a second/third-party series as any Trophy, Sticker, Spirit, Assist Trophee, Item, Mii Costume, Music, Stage or Taunt requires permissions, a right to use. A first right to use for any series is "new to the series". I think a renewed right to use for this series is no longer "new to the series". And...

There is already a "Tekken rep" in Ultimate.

SNK Rep
Chance: 0 - Want: abstain.
SNK wants a new console with 2 new games developed by SNK each year. I don't think Nintendo wants to promote its reborn competitor. The choices of the DLC were made well before this announcement. If Nintendo had wanted SNK content, I think the compagny would have negotiated exclusives content to compensate for the lack of general hype. Nintendo wanted to recover SNK excusivity, starting with SNK Heroines: Tag Team Frenzy, but now this story is now a thing in the past, because the console war continues.
View attachment 234271

Nominations: Concept: Another western character x5.

"Tekken can't get a character because Sakurai could have added Heihachi many times and didn't"

Well pack up guys it looks like we aren't getting any more characters for Smash. If "they weren't added before so they won't be added ever" is where we're at, dear Lord.

 

[3BitSaurus]

"Tekken can't get a character because Sakurai could have added Heihachi many times and didn't"

Well pack up guys it looks like we aren't getting any more characters for Smash. If "they weren't added before so they won't be added ever" is where we're at, dear Lord.

Not just that, but if that were the case, Banjo and Kazooie would never have got in, because Sakurai briefly considered them in Melee, but quickly turned them down because of the Rare buyout.

Plus, both BK and BT are directly named in Brawl, so by that logic they wouldn't be "new to the series" either.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

SNK Fighter

Chance: 50%
As far as new companies getting fighters in go, SNK isn't in too bad of a position. They've had some good relationships with Nintendo over the years and have been pretty faithfully adding their games on the Switch for quite some time now. As far as what they have to offer, they have some pretty well-known and beloved titles such as King of Fighters/Fatal Fury, Samurai Showdown and Metal Slug that they could make a fighter from. It simply boils down to if Nintendo wants a character of theirs or not, so I give it a nice 50/50 odds.

Want: 100% (though varies depending on who they'd pick)
I'm giving this a 100 want score since I'd adore having Marco, and possibly his crew, from Metal Slug making it in as a fighter(s). KoF and SS characters would be ok too, but not quite as high on my personal scale. Terry would make a good rival to Ryu (though I prefer Scorpion for that role) and Showdown has some cool characters also even if sword fighters are rather over saturated in this series.

-----


Tekken Fighter

Chance: 50%
Namco is back at the helm of this game, so they might have a bit of leverage to get another character in if they really want. Though it seems they are pretty content with Pac-Man remaining alone given how they didn't go for a DLC fighter in Smash 4 or newcomer in Ultimate. With that said, it's Ultimately Nintendo's call, and with Tekken being another stongly established series, the odds aren't too bad really.

Want: 10%
As far as fighting game characters go, those from Tekken don't quite have my interest for this game. Most of the frontrunners have fairly generic abilities that wouldn't stand out enough if you ask me. Yoshimitsu seems like the only one that really could bring something fun to the table, so he'd be ok.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

The reason I don't have much believe in a second Bamco rep is simply because there are just two spots on the fighters pass left and the competition is fierce. Good chance we could have another new company represented over Bamco like Tecmo, Bethesda, Activision, SNK or even Ubisoft if we're pulling the Spirits not deconfirming card. I also recall Sakurai saying there were no viable candidates from Bandai Namco after Pacman in the same interview he talked about Heihachi. That was during Sm4sh sure, but it isn't a good sign regardless.
I do think Capcom's getting represented tho. A RE rep is one of the likeliest characters I can think of.

 

[3BitSaurus]

The reason I don't have much believe in a second Bamco rep is simply because there are just two spots on the fighters pass left and the competition is fierce. Good chance we could have another new company represented over Bamco like Tecmo, Bethesda, Activision, SNK or even Ubisoft if we're pulling the Spirits not deconfirming card. I also recall Sakurai saying there were no viable candidates from Bandai Namco after Pacman in the same interview he talked about Heihachi. That was during Sm4sh sure, but it isn't a good sign regardless.
I do think Capcom's getting represented tho. A RE rep is one of the likeliest characters I can think of.

I mean... yeah, I agree with you, but I'm curious because some people seem to be treating Capcom and Namco as if they were no longer in the run because of the Mii Costume theory being disproven. The question wasn't particularly aimed at you, I guess you just happened to be the one that made a comment closest to the time I was browsing the thread, I guess. It was more of a general question to anyone who thinks that about the Costume theory.

 

[Ornl]

"Tekken can't get a character because Sakurai could have added Heihachi many times and didn't"

Here, the demonstration is that there were opportunities, possible choices, unlike about Banjo for example (he wasn't possible before). This choice about Heihachi has been rejected 3 times, voluntarily, for certain reasons, even if these reasons haven't yet been officialy communicated.

Well pack up guys it looks like we aren't getting any more characters for Smash. If "they weren't added before so they won't be added ever" is where we're at, dear Lord.

This is a misrepresentation. This process consists in presenting the my position in a deliberately erroneous way. This informal fallacy giving the impression of refuting my personal opinion, while actually refuting an idea that wan't presented by that me. One who engages in this fallacy is said to be "attacking a straw man". I don't think it's useful to react with a straw man unless it's an uncontrollable need to provoke, as with this introduction :

Inb4 Orln comes in talking about how Heihachi is a sub-Ryu and everyone laughs at that notion.

 

[Sari]

SNK Rep
Chance: 0 - Want: abstain.
SNK wants a new console with 2 new games developed by SNK each year. I don't think Nintendo wants to promote its reborn competitor. The choices of the DLC were made well before this announcement. If Nintendo had wanted SNK content, I think the compagny would have negotiated exclusives content to compensate for the lack of general hype. Nintendo wanted to recover SNK excusivity, starting with SNK Heroines: Tag Team Frenzy, but now this story is now a thing in the past, because the console war continues.
View attachment 234271

Nominations: Concept: Another western character x5.

I'm like 99% sure this new NEOGEO system isn't actually meant to compete with Nintendo. For starters the "next-gen" part wasn't in the original Japanese tweet, which just said "following NEOGEO mini, new NEOGEO hardware will appear." At best it'll just be a NEOGEO collection type of thing with maybe one or two new sprite-based games. You're not going to go to Gamestop or Walmart and see this new console lining up the shelves next to the Switch/PS4/XOne, I can guarantee that.

And SNK was never a Nintendo competitor anyway. The original home console NEOGEO was never meant to compete with the SNES since it was more of a niche console due to it's high price. SNK (and to an extent other companies like Nintendo and Sega) were aware of this and that is why SNK is a more known for their impact in the arcade scene. Heck, the original home console NEOGEO is literally just the same machine used for the arcades. To further show that they were never competitors, there are even SNK games on the SNES such as Fatal Fury.

Also we have whose main game is one of the most critically acclaimed PS4 exclusives, so if anything him being in Smash gives people a reason to get a PS4 - Nintendo's actual direct competitor.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Here, the demonstration is that there were opportunities, possible choices, unlike about Banjo for example (he wasn't possible before). This choice about Heihachi has been rejected 3 times, voluntarily, for certain reasons, even if these reasons haven't yet been officialy communicated.

Banjo was also possible at the same time period as Heihachi. Phil Spencer first said he was ok with it during Smash 4's DLC period. It's the exact same situation. They both were possible, but were denied for whatever reason in favor of other characters. Same wih Ridley, K. Rool, Villager and others who were denied at first, then revisited. This has never fully stopped characters from being possible and it never will.

Frankly, if you just said "I don't think they will be in", it would be better than the fanrules and unofficial sources you keep pulling up. I know this is speculation and opinions are a thing, but every single time all you do is try to present a bunch of fanrules as fact. Like, just add a small "in my opinion" to your paragraphs. Seriously, I doubt half the people who get into arguments with you would do so if you did just that.

This is not an attack and is not meant to be taken personally, but at this point I'm legitimately growing tired of this, even as a fellow non-native English speaker. This is why I asked you before: who do you think is possible? Because you rate every single character extremely low. That can't be good for discussion, especially if you just deny every single point made against you despite not having proof.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Here, the demonstration is that there were opportunities, possible choices, unlike about Banjo for example (he wasn't possible before). This choice about Heihachi has been rejected 3 times, voluntarily, for certain reasons, even if these reasons haven't yet been officialy communicated.

With that logic I guess there's not going to be anymore first party characters ever. For example, Dixie Kong was rejected 6 times, so I guess that's as good as a disconfirmation.

It's not like there's limited slots or anything. It's not like characters can be rejected for reasons that no longer apply later. Clearly rejections are final and that's it.

I won't even address the straw man defense since it's clear that you're hiding behind that to avoid defending and/or explaining your reasoning.

 

[Ornl]

- And SNK was never a Nintendo competitor anyway.
- Also we have whose main game is one of the most critically acclaimed PS4 exclusives, so if anything him being in Smash gives people a reason to get a PS4 - Nintendo's actual direct competitor.

- NeoGeo Pocket has been more successful than any other Game Boy concurrent console.
- Joker doesn't promote the PS4, because Persona 5 had already had a big success before and isn't directly developed as a PS4 first-party, unlike a SNK game on an upcoming NeoGeo console. The comparison isn't right.

- Banjo was also possible at the same time period as Heihachi. Phil Spencer first said he was ok with it during Smash 4's DLC period. It's the exact same situation.
- every single time all you do is try to present a bunch of fanrules as fact ; - you just deny every single point made against you despite not having proof.
This is not an attack and is not meant to be taken personally,
- just add a small "in my opinion" to your paragraphs.

- For the second time, this example with Banjo isn't good, because bad timing = impossible. It's very simple.
- Sorry, a generalization by subjective judgment that stigmatizes is ad personam.
- I said "I think" x3 -__-'

- With that logic I guess there's not going to be anymore first party characters ever. For example, Dixie Kong was rejected 6 times, so I guess that's as good as a disconfirmation.
-I won't even address the straw man defense since it's clear that you're hiding behind that to avoid defending and/or explaining your reasoning.

- Dixie Kong was rejected, after being mentioned, the first time in Brawl. If she is still absent, I think it's probably because her great potential was in duet with Diddy Kong, not only to use her hair alone.
- You talk about "straw man defense" now, this process is called an apophasis. It can be employed to raise an ad hominem or otherwise controversial attack while disclaiming responsibility (as a provocation) for it, as in, "I refuse to discuss the straw man which is an excuse behind which you hide". None of these methods are honest, nor denying the existence of my developments and my responses, like this following reductive minimization of my development, which there were 2 days of argumentation:

Inb4 Orln comes in talking about how Heihachi is a sub-Ryu and everyone laughs at that notion.

 

[GoodGrief741]

NeoGeo Pocket has been more successful than any other Game Boy concurrent console.

The Neo Geo Pocket was extremely unsuccessful, was discontinued due to low sales, and it's successor, the Pocket Color, was also discontinued after two years in its most successful region. The Game Boy competition is literally the third best selling console of all time.

- Dixie Kong was rejected, after being mentioned, the first time in Brawl. If she is still absent, I think it's probably because her great potential was in duet with Diddy Kong, not only to use her hair alone.
- You talk about "straw man defense" now, this process is called an apophasis. It can be employed to raise an ad hominem or otherwise controversial attack while disclaiming responsibility (as a provocation) for it, as in, "I refuse to discuss the straw man which is an excuse behind which you hide". None of these methods are honest, nor denying the existence of my developments and my responses, like this following reductive minimization of my development, which there were 2 days of argumentation:

Let's start over, as it appears that you're eluding the main argument.

You say Heihachi can't be in Smash, because he has already (allegedly) been rejected several times. Is that a correct interpretation of your argument?

 

[3BitSaurus]

- For the second time, this example with Banjo isn't good, because bad timing = impossible. It's very simple.
- Sorry, a generalization by subjective judgment that stigmatizes is ad personam.
- I said "I think" x3 -__-'

It's a perfect example. The reason why a character is cut doesn't matter. What matters is that they can be cut and then reconsidered.

Sorry, misquoting and avoiding the issue are signs of bad argumentation.

Again: which characters do you think are likely to be the last two on the Fighter Pass? No dodging.

 

[Ornl]

Again: which characters do you think are likely to be the last two on the Fighter Pass? No dodging.

Nothing obliges me to reply at this demanding question, even less when it's demanded for a judgment of intentions. When this demand won't be like a trial, the conditions will be better for me to answer.

You say Heihachi can't be in Smash, because he has already (allegedly) been rejected several times. Is that a correct interpretation of your argument?

Reductive minimization again -__- I said Heihachi can't be in Smash, because :
- he was considered a first time, and there were 2 opportunities to make he appear later,
- the first opportunity expresses that Ryu was preferred as a 2nd rep from a company already represented as a fighting game character, whereas Heihachi had been considered before,
- this is consistent with the preferences of the reader community of Japan's most influential video game magazine, which prefers Street Fighter / Capcom VS games (1358 votes) to Tekken (136 votes)*,
- the second opportunity expresses that there has already been 5 upgrade from Sm4sh Mii Costumes to Ultimate newcomers, but there is no reason for there to be another upgrade in DLC because the DLC must be "new to the series ",
- Heihachi's version in the Smash-Bros-like PlayStation Battle Royale All-Stars isn't convincing (no unique and different ability),
- Heihachi is already represented in Ultimate.
Each point can be disputed one by one, but it wouldn't be right to do it. Because it's the set / the whole of disadvantages that is important; it's an accumulation that makes sense for me.
Anyway, no point requires provoking, deforming then attacking straw men, making accusations, blaming ignoring the answers by ignoring oneself answers. I find that these reactions to a share of feelings are stinking.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Nothing obliges me to reply at this demanding question, even less when it's demanded for a judgment of intentions. When this demand won't be like a trial, the conditions will be better for me to answer.

Then I guess nothing obliges me to take your points seriously. Shame, because it would help everyone here understand your position. I mean... by this point, one would assume you're either trying to find completely arbitrary reasons to deny characters you don't like or just plain trolling.

You've also been asked this question by other people several times in different contexts and still refused to answer. You were wrong about not making it, so if anything, this means I should be glad you're so adamant against other picks, because that means they have a high chance.

I won't clog this thread anymore. Every point of yours has already been proven wrong anyway, so there's nothing to add. I'll just drop the issue and ignore your posts. I urge others to do the same. Have a good day, sir or madam!

This has been (non)Discourse with 3BitSaurus, GoodGrief and Ornl! See you all next time!

There will be no next time, hopefully.

PS: False causal relations, which are used to death by you, are a fallacy. Thought you'd like that one, so there you go.

 

[Ornl]

This is not an attack and is not meant to be taken personally

+

Then I guess nothing obliges me to take your points seriously. Shame, because it would help everyone here understand your position. I mean... by this point, one would assume you're either trying to finding completely arbitrary reasons to deny characters you don't like or just plain trolling.
You've also been asked this question by other people several times in different contexts and still refused to answer. You were wrong about not making it, so if anything, this means I should be glad you're so adamant against other picks, because that means they have a high chance.

I won't clog this thread anymore. Every point of yours has already been proven wrong anyway, so there's nothing to add. I'll just drop the issue and ignore your posts. I urge others to do the same. Have a good day, sir or madam!

This has been (non)Discourse with 3BitSaurus, GoodGrief and Ornl! See you all next time!

There will be no next time, hopefully.

PS: False causal relations, which are used to death by you, are a fallacy. Thought you'd like that one, so there you go.

Finally you reveal your true face. That of someone whose will is intentionally wanting to belittle me.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Anyway, how long until the next top 7 is defined? Two days, right?

 

[GoodGrief741]

- he was considered a first time, and there were 2 opportunities to make he appear later

So have many characters that have appeared later anyways. Plus this line of reasoning would mean that most characters are disconfirmed to the point of absurdity.

1 point down

- the first opportunity expresses that Ryu was preferred as a 2nd rep from a company already represented as a fighting game character, whereas Heihachi had been considered before

Ryu's appearance in Smash has no bearing on Heihachi's chances, nor does what number of characters a company has or the order.

2 points down

- this is consistent with the preferences of the reader community of Japan's most influential video game magazine, which prefers Street Fighter / Capcom VS games (1358 votes) to Tekken (136 votes)

The opinions of Famitsu have no bearing on the selection of Smash characters, and can't be proven to have any.

3 points down

- the second opportunity expresses that there has already been 5 upgrade from Sm4sh Mii Costumes to Ultimate newcomers, but there is no reason for there to be another upgrade in DLC because the DLC must be "new to the series "

Just a combination of points 1 and 6.

4 points down

- Heihachi's version in the Smash-Bros-like PlayStation Battle Royale All-Stars isn't convincing (no unique and different ability)

Completely subjective and from what I've seen the general consensus is the opposite. Heihachi's representation in another game is also irrelevant to his Smash potential.

5 points down

- Heihachi is already represented in Ultimate.

Now here you have a point! It's debatable, but it's based on facts (Heihachi in Pac-Man's taunt) + facts (Reggie's quote) -> conclusion (Heihachi isn't new to Smash and thus ineligible).

That's 20% of the argument standing.

Each point can be disputed one by one, but it wouldn't be right to do it.

Too bad, I've done it.

Because it's the set / the whole of disadvantages that is important; it's an accumulation that makes sense for me.

Yeah, but it turns out, by analyzing them one by one, only one stood. And since the points don't really connect to each other, then you didn't have much of an argument to begin with.

Anyway, how long until the next top 7 is defined? Two days, right?

Not counting this one, yes.

 

[Ornl]

1 So have many characters that have appeared later anyways. Plus this line of reasoning would mean that most characters are disconfirmed to the point of absurdity.
2 Ryu's appearance in Smash has no bearing on Heihachi's chances, nor does what number of characters a company has or the order.
3 The opinions of Famitsu have no bearing on the selection of Smash characters, and can't be proven to have any.
4 Just a combination of points 1 and 6.
5 Completely subjective and from what I've seen the general consensus is the opposite. Heihachi's representation in another game is also irrelevant to his Smash potential.
6 That's 20% of the argument standing.
7 (Each point can be disputed one by one, but it wouldn't be right to do it) Too bad, I've done it.
8 by analyzing them one by one, only one stood. And since the points don't really connect to each other, then you didn't have much of an argument to begin with.

1 It's only you who associates this idea with all the other characters. Except about all other Mii Costumes.
2 You can't affirm it objectively.
3 No need to prove anything if I didn't say otherwise. However, you can't affirm it objectively (x2). Then, Famitsu is a representation of a community that can, proportionally, give an idea of the representation of fighting games in Japan.
5 Argumentum ad populum*.
6 You can't affirm it objectively (x3).
7 This constitutes, again, a new provocation.
8 You can't affirm it objectively (x4). It's only your personal interpretation, your subjective judgement.
Anyway, no point requires provoking, building then attacking straw men, making accusations, blaming ignoring the answers by ignoring oneself answers, blaming not to be objective without being objective, publicly judging my personal opinions... This thread as created to rate characters and not to rate people's ratings. I find that these reactions to a share of feelings are stinking.

 

[Megadoomer]

1 It's only you who associates this idea with all the other characters. Except about all other Mii Costumes.
2 You can't affirm it objectively.
3 No need to prove anything if I didn't say otherwise. However, you can't affirm it objectively (x2). Then, Famitsu is a representation of a community that can, proportionally, give an idea of the representation of fighting games in Japan.
5 Argumentum ad populum*.
6 You can't affirm it objectively (x3).
7 This constitutes, again, a new provocation.
8 You can't affirm it objectively (x4). It's only your personal interpretation, your subjective judgement.
Anyway, no point requires provoking, building then attacking straw men, making accusations, blaming ignoring the answers by ignoring oneself answers, blaming not to be objective without being objective, publicly judging my personal opinions... This thread as created to rate characters and not to rate people's ratings. I find that these reactions to a share of feelings are stinking.

Saying that a poll from a single magazine represents an entire country is like saying that a single poll on Smash Boards represents the entire Smash community - it doesn't make sense to extrapolate the data that much.

Also, your feelings on which characters should make it in aren't objective fact. Just because you don't think that characters like an SNK character or Heihachi are going to make it into Smash, that doesn't suddenly make it so they will never appear in Smash. That's like saying that Ridley will never make it into Smash Bros. before Ultimate came out because he had been rejected several times before. There's no reason to act as though, because of a few subjective points of data (such as vague similarities between Ryu and Heihachi's moves, or SNK making their equivalent of the NES Mini or Super NES Mini), these characters will never make it into Smash, and anyone who thinks that they will is a fool for doing so.

However, I feel like dissecting someone's points like what people have been doing on this page is a little excessive for this thread in general. At the end of the day, all of these ratings are our opinions, and as long as they're treated like opinions, they shouldn't be picked apart for that.

 

[Ornl]

- Saying that a poll from a single magazine represents an entire country is like saying that a single poll on Smash Boards represents the entire Smash community - it doesn't make sense to extrapolate the data that much.
- Also, your feelings on which characters should make it in aren't objective fact.
- Just because you don't think that characters like an SNK character or Heihachi aren't going to make it into Smash, that doesn't suddenly make it so they will never appear in Smash. That's like saying that Ridley will never make it into Smash Bros. before Ultimate came out because he had been rejected several times before.
- SNK making their equivalent of the NES Mini or Super NES Mini

- Famitsu remains Japan's most influential magazine, for which Sakurai participates in a column every two months. I consider it has a better representation than other sources.
- This isn't a thread that only requires objective fact.
- With Isabelle, Inkling, Chrom and K. Rool, Ridley is part of the upgrades from Sm4sh Mii Costumes to Ultimate newcomers. Heihachi missed this opportunity, yet he was considered for Sm4sh. I interpret this absence as a cancellation.
- "Next-Gen NEOGEO" ≠ "equivalent of the NES Mini or Super NES Mini".

 

[PapillonXtreme]

SNK Rep

Chance: 40%
I have a good feeling that SNK might have a shot in getting in as DLC in Smash. Not only do they have a good relation with Nintendo and the fact that they released a Switch port of some of their games, they also had a good reputation of putting their characters into other series. The only thing that might hold them back aside from fierce competition from other third-party companies is the fact that SNK isn't well known in the West, but with Hero from Dragon Quest, I guess it really doesn't matter if you don't have any exposures in the West.

Want: 90%
I love SNK games, from Fatal Fury to Metal Slug, I have played them since childhood. An SNK Rep in Smash is plausible since it has good relations with Nintendo. And I really don't care which character they're going to pick to represent the company, as long as they're in Smash, it's more than enough for me to make me happy.

Tekken Rep

Chance: 45%
Even though Sakurai stated that they had some difficulty regarding Heihachi's movesets in Smash, I still believe that a Tekken Rep isn't out of the question just yet. It's one of Bandai Namco's biggest franchise and they really deserve a second fighter in Smash. However, there is one more game from Bamco that they have to face: the Tales series. Not only that, the difficulty of implementing their movesets into Smash might still be in effect and as such, my chance rating for a Tekken rep is a bit lower than usual. Really, it all depends on Bandai Namco's decision whether to add either Tales or Tekken into Smash or they might just sit this one out.

Want: 80%
Tekken is one of my favorite fighting game franchise, just right next to Street Fighter and I kinda want a Tekken rep in Smash for the sake of nostalgia. Like I said, a Tekken rep isn't out of question despite the difficulty in translating their movesets into Smash. Whether it be Heihachi, Jin or Kazuya, I don't care which one they'll chose as long as Tekken is represented in Smash.

Predictions:
Agumon - 3.16%
Jibanyan - 10.24%

Nomination:
Saber (Fate) x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

1 It's only you who associates this idea with all the other characters. Except about all other Mii Costumes.
2 You can't affirm it objectively.
3 No need to prove anything if I didn't say otherwise. However, you can't affirm it objectively (x2). Then, Famitsu is a representation of a community that can, proportionally, give an idea of the representation of fighting games in Japan.
5 Argumentum ad populum*.
6 You can't affirm it objectively (x3).
7 This constitutes, again, a new provocation.
8 You can't affirm it objectively (x4). It's only your personal interpretation, your subjective judgement.
Anyway, no point requires provoking, building then attacking straw men, making accusations, blaming ignoring the answers by ignoring oneself answers, blaming not to be objective without being objective, publicly judging my personal opinions... This thread as created to rate characters and not to rate people's ratings. I find that these reactions to a share of feelings are stinking.

If you make claims, it's on you to prove them true. The burden of proof is on you, it's not up to me to prove the falsehood of your statements. I'm content with the fact that everyone else knows they aren't true, but it would be nice if you could accept that as well.

 

[Ornl]

If you make claims, it's on you to prove them true. The burden of proof is on you, it's not up to me to prove the falsehood of your statements. I'm content with the fact that everyone else knows they aren't true, but it would be nice if you could accept that as well.

No need to prove anything if I didn't say otherwise (x2). Burden of proof is your invention. The falsehood of my statements is your invention. What should be accepted is your invention*. You already used the argumentum ad populum* by invoking the opinion of "everyone" while I hadn't yet posted my personnal prediction:

Inb4 Orln comes in talking about how Heihachi is a sub-Ryu and everyone laughs at that notion.

I find that these reactions before and after to my share of feelings are stinking.

 

[YoshiandToad]

SNK? SNK??? SNNNNKKKK!!!!!

Chance: 20%
Not impossible by any means. SNK is a big enough company that they could feasibly get a character into the game, but there's only a small handful that have reached a recognisability on par with even Bayonetta and Joker.

Mai, Terry Bogard, Kyo and Iori are the only four I've heard of, but that I, someone who doesn't take an interest in more traditional video games know of them does speak of them being pretty dang famous.

Want: 30%
Dependent on who, but of the four I'm more interested in Terry and Mai, followed by Iori and then Kyo. But this could be a way to introduce me to SNK's cast of colourful characters in much the same way Smash has introduced me to other franchises I've enjoyed like Fire Emblem and Bayonetta.

---------------------

Tekken-Crete

Chance: 20%
If Namco's getting another character it's either Tekken, Soul Calibur or Tales (RIP Digimon and Klonoa) due their popularity. Of the three Tekken is the more popular series and it's likely to be either Heihachi or Jin or Kazuya. My money would be on Heihachi as he's the face of the series.

Want: 20%
I'm not the biggest fan of Tekken. As previously stated I'm not huge on traditional fighting games, but even of the ones I have played I personally find Tekken a little overrated.

I'd prefer characters like King, Marshall Law or Kuma/Panda if we had to get a Tekken character but we're unlikely to get anyone outside the Mishima family. I guess Heihachi would be the better of the group for me as he at least has the chance of having a bear fight by his side for a Final Smash or the victory pose. Yep, that's the only reason I'd rank one above the others. Go figure.

---------------------

Predictions:
Agumon: 7.2%
Jibanyan: 11.3%

Nominations:
Lara Croft X 5

 

[Troykv]

I don't have anything interesting to say this day; I'm a bit lacking of time; so I'll just abstain.

___________

Predictions:

Agumon: 8.1%
Jibanyan: 12.1%

Nominations

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day will end around 12 pm est.

 

[Sid-cada]

SNK Representative

Chance - 15% - SNK does reasonably well, and while they're not a juggernaut they have some respect. Some of them have some respect, but none quite to the level as that of some of the more obscure 3rd parties like Bayo or Joker, though that just might be me talking. Sakurai may show some liking to them, but overall they have a somewhat notable, but not highly likely chance.

Want - 45% - I have no real attachement to any of the characters. That said, the majority of them are fighting game characters, who I have a dislike towards due to Ryu's inputs messing with the simplicity of how I feel a Smash Bros. character should be adapted. A Metal Slug characer might be more up my alley, and I'll guess I can take him.


Tekken Character

Chance - 2.5% - I would put more chance here if we were more certain that we would get a Namco character. As of now, though, it's hard to see why other than obligation for Namco, which doesn't hold much weight these days. Sakurai has admitted difficulty in getting the one real representative in before, so I think unless Sakurai really wants to revisit the idea he would look elsewhere as some other character is more likely to catch his eye.

Want - 35% - As I mentioned prior, I have a distaste for fighting game characters. I would rather a character not have things like QCF to be played optimally, as I feel that goes against the spirit of Smash characters being easy to play. I'd rather not risk a repeat of that.


Predictions

Agumon - 4.34% - I guess it's possible?

Jibanyan - 7.34% - level 5 competition.

Nominations

Cadence X5

 

[Nquoid]

SNK Rep
Chance: 15%
Want: 10%

As one of the last prominent companies from Japan with multiple viable IP that could come to Smash, I don't think you can discount them. However the most obvious franchises they have for a fighter are all fighting games and if we are going to get another character from a fighting game, my money is on something from Namco's fighting games.

When it comes to want, the franchise I'm most interested in would be Metal Slug, which has been largely dormant since Metal Slug 7 on the DS. And whilst it's not a complete ruling out, it does feel like they'd prioritise their arcade fighters and I'm just generally less interested in that. Especially with other companies and franchises that have closer ties to Nintendo that haven't made it into the game yet.

Tekken Rep
Chance 51%
Want: 50%

One of the biggest franchises from Japan with no proper representation in Smash Ultimate. Obviously Heihachi could show up as a costume any day now and that would rule him out, but until that day I think Tekken has a very strong chance of making an appearance. Everyone knows the reasons, Namco already have a rep in the game (and the only company to not have a new character in Smash Ultimate), Sakurai has name checked Heihachi, Tekken is a big deal in general and we can go on and on. The biggest check marks against it are other franchises from Namco themselves, the (incredibly minor) fact that Tekken is historically a Playstation franchise and that Sakurai said that Heihachi was hard to implement in Smash 4. So I'm not willing to go all in, but it certainly has more chance than a lot of other characters.

My experience with Tekken are mostly limited to playing with school friends and playing around other people's houses. But it exists as a perfect counterpoint to Street Fighter. It has the legacy and the pedigree and the characters are iconic. Plus I just really want to see the hard work that Namco Bandai have put into Smash Ultimate. And whilst some people think it's too obvious or that it would have been in the base game if it were going to happen, it be a nice hat tip to have one of the last two fighters be from one of the other great fighting franchises in gaming.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Gonna just say two more hours since I have to run a huge errand.

 

[FancySmash]

I gotta be honest, aside from Smash, I'm not much of a fighting game fan. Don't usually abstain, but since I've got very, very little to say on both parties today, I'll abstain on both.

SNK Rep
Abstain

Tekken Rep
Abstain

Predictions:
Agumon - I've noticed quite a bit of talk about this creature as of late. I'll be bold, 10.51%
Jibanyan - Probably the most likely of the Level 5 characters IMO, 23.66%

Noms:
Kamek x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over

Today we got Agumon and jibanyan. Tomorrow Crash and Spyro

Also Abstaining x5 for protoman