Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[MrUndy]

I'd say Joker is definitely iconic tho.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Ornl]

Rayman
Chance: 0% - Want: abstain
Rayman is the least popular western platformer in Japan among Crash>Banjo>Rayman. He already appears in another SmashBros-like game, Brawlhalla, and already appears as Spirit in Ultimate.

Ezio
Chance: 0% - Want: abstain
Like Metal Gear, Assassin's Creed is a M-Rated stealth series, but it's a western series less known and less sold in Japan than Metal Gear. Snake, Ryu, Ken, Cloud, Simon, Richter, Joker and Hero are already human male Fighters. Which already represents a majority among the third-party Fighters, unlike the Nintendo Fighters. So I think Ezio is competing with all the other human male characters, because I don't think the last 2 DLC Fighters will be human males. Marine and Ryu Hayabusa appear to be more serious "M-Rated" competitors IMO.

Nominations: Lara Croft x5

 

[MrMcNuts]

I'd say Joker is definitely iconic tho.

Persona as a whole series has only sold around 10 million units while Rayman as a series has sold about 26 million. If joker is iconic then you can 100% make the case for Rayman being iconic even if he isn't big in Japan

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

I'm glad he's frozen in there and we're out here
Chance: 7.5%
He's a third-party, one from an unrepresented company Nintendo can get along with quite well, but he's also a spirit and I'm of the opinion that third-party spirits are even harder deconfirmations than first-party spirits, as negotiations would've have to be done just to have the character's png in there with no consideration to make them a fighter down the line. Perhaps his unfortunate status in Japan really did settle his fate as nothing more than a spirit, despite his acknowledgeable western support. Perhaps Ubisoft is perfectly fine with having no representation besides spirits in this game.

Ignoring the spirit and looking at the bright side, I still think his popularity is enough to make him the likeliest choice for a Ubisoft rep. Also the DQ hero is as big of a Japanese crowd pleaser you can get, so maybe that character's inclusion can soften the potential negative feedback from Japan if Rayman made it.
Regardless, I'd say he'd have a bigger chance if DLC would continue beyond this Fighters pass.

Want: 85%
He's another one of the few third I actually want. I hold alot of nostalgia for his games, particularly Rayman 2 and I know I'm not the only one. And with his games consistantly showing up on Nintendo platforms since Rayman 2 I'd say he'd definitely fit in.

Itza me, Ezio
Chance: 1%
Sure, AC is way more mainstream and succesfull than the Rayman franchise. And it's also the franchise Ubisoft seems to give much more of a damn about.
However, Banjo has shown us that those things don't have to matter that much as long as you have a strong and longrunning supportbase. So yeah, I'd believe Rayman would definitely be chosen over Ezio. Not to mention his history with Nintendo and the fact he's still represented in Smash somewhat.

Want: 0%
Yeah, I am biased. Rayman is the only Ubisoft IP I give a damn about currently. The AC franchise just looks bland and uninteresting to me.

Geno: 2.13%
Sora: 1.76%
Gene x5

 

[Nquoid]

Rayman

Chance: 10%
Want: 50%

Despite thinking Spirits do deconfirm, I am giving Rayman slightly more than my standard "5% as lowest I'll go". Purely because *he has* been in the last two games. Ubisoft are pushing. And I can't imagine if Nintendo did agree to those appearances, that if Nintendo did want an Ubisoft rep in the game they would not let something as small as a spirit get in the way. But then, why is he in the game at all if they probably had an idea of what the DLC was like before the game launched. Why not just add a subtitle to his spirit since it's the Ubiart version and the DLC would presumably take from the 3D Rayman games. So I don't think he's likely, but of all the spirits in the game I'd wager that he is most likely.

As for want, I'm torn. I absolutely adored those two Ubiart games, but they don't translate particularly well to Smash. Like that art style is so wonderful, that I'd be vaguely disappointed if they went back to the old 3D model from Rayman 3 for the basis of his moveset (I'm sure Sakurai would do something to make it a hybrid but still!). So yeah, Rayman cool, happy to be in the game, but I know I'd have to play the version of the character I don't dig as much.

Ezio Auditore
Chance 5%
Want 20%

Probably one of Ubisoft's biggest franchises at this point, and Ezio is definitely the most iconic character. But outside of Assassin's Creed II: Discovery, Ezio hasn't been on a Nintendo system, and I can see them doing something dumb like putting Connor in instead. I know characters not on Nintendo consoles are fair game, but I also don't think they'd want to overload pass with those kinds of characters. Plus, why get Ezio when we could get Prince of Persia instead! (I know it won't happen, but man Sands of Time was amazing).

Assassin's Creed II and Brotherhood were two of my favourite games of that generation. I actually completed every game in the series 100% through Black Flag then fell off hard. It's a franchise I have a lot of affection for, especially as a kind of spiritual successor to Prince of Persia. But also one that functions so much better as a mechanical exercise rather than character one. I love the setting, and story and gameplay of Assassin's Creed, I couldn't give two ****s about any of the lead characters. It'd be cool to see a franchise I once loved in the game, but I've got so many more priorities I am happy to let this slide for now.

 

[Troykv]

I'll abstain this time, because I don't have anything in mind to see about them... They're too "outside of my knowledge", and I arrived a bit too late to trying to make a research right now.

____

Predictions:

Geno: 2.5%
Sora: 3.4%

(essencially RIP because DQ always was the underrated bigger fish)

Nominations:

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5

 

[BowserKing]

Ray-Man

Chance: 10%. He is a spirit, but he could have a chance next game. Competition would be fierce, but he could make it.

Want: 100%. I was rooting for him since 2017, and he has lots of potential for this franchise. If he made it in, his franchise would get a boost.

Ezio

Chance: 10%. So far Ubisoft reps are just spirits, but his franchise could show up. But once again, it's the competition that would be the judge.

Want: 50%. Ray-Man is more likely at this point. But his franchise would be fun to be represented.

Noms: 2 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion and 3 for Earthworm Jim

 

[GoodGrief741]

Persona as a whole series has only sold around 10 million units while Rayman as a series has sold about 26 million. If joker is iconic then you can 100% make the case for Rayman being iconic even if he isn't big in Japan

If we were talking about sales, sure.

But we're not talking about that, we're talking about being iconic. Joker got a huge push because of his game's success, with the media and critics pushing him hard and Atlus themselves making sure he's known. Rayman meanwhile fell into obscurity post-original trilogy and only really resurfaced with Legends and Origins, which while great didn't set the world on fire.

 

[MrMcNuts]

If we were talking about sales, sure.

But we're not talking about that, we're talking about being iconic. Joker got a huge push because of his game's success, with the media and critics pushing him hard and Atlus themselves making sure he's known. Rayman meanwhile fell into obscurity post-original trilogy and only really resurfaced with Legends and Origins, which while great didn't set the world on fire.

Ok? People still loved origins and legends and critics praised that too. And if Rayman is the face of his series and it reached 26 million then he's definitely iconic. This argument doesn't work lol

 

[GoodGrief741]

Ok? People still loved origins and legends and critics praised that too. And if Rayman is the face of his series and it reached 26 million then he's definitely iconic. This argument doesn't work lol

It's not an argument, it's an explanation. You ask people about Rayman, you're not bound to get a lot of recognition. I was simply explaining why.

 

[MrMcNuts]

It's not an argument, it's an explanation. You ask people about Rayman, you're not bound to get a lot of recognition. I was simply explaining why.

Saying that it's an explanation implies that your statement of him not being iconic is fact which it's not though.

 

[Sid-cada]

Rayman

Chance - 2.5% - In my mind, while spirits are not a hard discomfirmation, they are a very big negative. Were it not for that, he would have been a major contendor, but as it stands I don't see him getting in.

Want - 75% - I had fun with Legends on the Wii U. I would defenetly prefer him over Ezio.


Ezio

Chance - 10% - With Rayman out of the picture, Ezio is one of Ubisoft's most likely. However, he doesn't seem to stir the imagination quite as much as many of the other third party characters.

Want - 20% - Not interested in him. Doesn't seem that interesting from a gameplay perspective.


Predictions

Sora - 0.23% - Disney says Hi.

Geno - 1.56% - Another Spirit to add to the pile....


Nominations

Cadence X5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Rayman:

Chance: 10%
He's a spirit...but...the one thing going for Rayman opposed to say Dixie or Captain Toad is the focus on third parties in the DLC pass, hence a little higher. Ubisoft have been supportive of Nintendo for a long time and Rayman was one of the few third parties to get a trophy in the last game. Honestly shocked he didn't appear this time round, but the current set up we've been given with the DLC and spirits deconfirming fighters doesn't make it seem like Rayman's got a good chance.

Want: 70%
Alongside Crash Bandicoot and the impossible Spyro and Bomberman, Rayman's one of the few third party mascots I'd actually want to see break into Smash.
I'd still rather Nintendo characters, but we could do a lot worse than Rayman as a third party option.

Ezio

Chance: 22%
Assassin's Creed is a big deal, and Ezio is the poster boy for the series having also appeared in Soul Calibur. It's questionable if Assassin's Creed would be the first choice for an Ubisoft character over Rayman for Nintendo. However if they're trying to rope in brand new players and appeal to those who WOULDN'T usually pick up Smash, Ezio could be a better choice. Many Smash fans have some experience with Rayman, and many Rayman fans have experience with Smash...I'm not sure the more serious Assassin's Creed series has as much overlap as Rayman.

Want: 38%
I've had no experience with Assassin's Creed, but my girlfriend is a huge fan of that series so Ezio might just convince her to play Smash a bit more with me. Ezio's pretty iconic too and I can't deny the series popularity.

 

[Calamitas]

Man of the Rays

Chance: 10%
I still don't believe that Spirits deconfirm characters, but the circumstances of his are hurting him big time. He's rather prominently placed in WoL, and third-party Spirits are another story entirely than first-party Spirits.

Wants: 25%
Eh, I wouldn't mind him too terribly much. Still not a character I'd actively clamor for by any means.

Mr Creed

Chance: 25%
Current DLC trends certainly do point in his favour. But so far, Joker's more of an outlier with regards to having not really having strong ties with Nintendo as far as the Fighter's Pass is concerned. So I just really don't see him happening.

Want: 0%
Not interested. Not in the slightest.

Nominating Amaterasu x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

I'm afraid I'll have to abstain again. I know that Western third parties are on the table now, but I don't know enough about the relationship between Nintendo and Ubisoft to know if the latter would be considered (at least with Microsoft, they each made it clear that they were cooperative rather than competitive, if that makes any sense).

Nominations: Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[StormC]

Rayman

Chance: 1%. I've already said that Spirits deconfirm in my mind, at least for this Fighters Pass, but for third party ones it seems even more damning since they had to go and license them, when we know DLC was being licensed and planned during early 2018. His various issues like being a complete unknown in Japan and the fan support not being as big as characters like Banjo are going to hold him back going forward. His major benefit is having some fan support and Nintendo's close relationship with Ubisoft, but I don't think it's enough for Rayman as is.

Want: 50%. The only Rayman game I've really played is Rayman 2, which I liked quite a bit, but other than that he's an unknown to me. I know he has his fans though and I'm always up for more goofy platformer characters in Smash. Amiibo would look like crap though, heh.

Ezio

Chance: 0%. I think western third parties in Smash will be very rare unless they are popular in Japan, and Assassin's Creed has never really reached that status besides a few games selling decently. There's little to no demand for the character and I honestly doubt it would even cross Sakurai's mind to have Assassin's Creed content in Smash. I don't even think they would add a Ubisoft character that isn't Rayman. With only two spots left on the Fighters Pass, I really cannot see Ezio making it.

Want: 0%. Never played Assassin's Creed and zero interest in seeing it in Smash. It's certainly a popular series but I can't imagine it would be very exciting to see realized in a crossover like this. I don't play a ton of western games in general but even then I'd rather see characters like Doom Slayer first.

 

[Deleted member]

The Limbless Legend

Chance: 0.5%

Given that Rayman is in Smash as a spirit in WoL, it's very obvious to rule him out of the picture. Regardless of if Ubisoft and Nintendo worked on a crossover from a few years ago, I don't really think Nintendo finds much value in putting Rayman in the game as a DLC character since as mentioned earlier, he's not appealing in Japan when apparently Rayman Legends bombed pretty hard sales wise over there. I don't really have much to add on that.

Want: 15%

It's weird that I find Rayman better off as a Fighter in the base game rather than DLC since another Western character would be a huge deal for many, but he doesn't really do much for me. A character from a game I've never played but only know off of name value can be hit or miss for me, and Rayman is of the latter on that department.
---------------------------------------------
White Hooded Italian

Chance: 18%

Assassin's Creed is probably Ubisoft's biggest long running franchise currently, and it actually looks like it does sell decently well in Japan surprisingly. Interestingly enough, there is no AC game announced for this year, and the 1 year where an AC game didn't come out after the annual releases following had an Assassin's Creed movie, which to no one's surprise it was apparently a very bad video game movie. It could just be a coincidence, but maybe other than that orchestral tour the music team is doing, it could be a sign that an Assassin's Creed character would be in Smash, but at the same time, if that were the case, there wouldn't have been an AC game released on the same year as Soulcalibur V, back when AC was at its highest of highs. The lack of fan demand would probably make Ezio a riskier character to put in the Fighter Pass since he would have to sell by his surprise factor and how well his trailer presents him, so his chances are pretty low.

Want: 15%

He seems like an ok candidate to represent Assassin's Creed with decent moveset material. However like Rayman, he doesn't exactly resonate with me at all, and this is coming from someone who like seeing some more realistic fighters in Smash. Maybe it's because I slightly have a preference for Connor and Edward over Ezio, but even then, no one from Assassin's Creed would really make me all too excited to see be in Smash.
---------------------------------------------
Prediction:

Wooden Mega Man: 7%
Disney's Geno: 3%
---------------------------------------------
Nom: Cadence x5

 

[MrUndy]

It's not an argument, it's an explanation. You ask people about Rayman, you're not bound to get a lot of recognition. I was simply explaining why.

Yeah, about recognition...
I would like share my story with Persona series.
Way before I bought my PS4 and Joker joined the roaster I didn't know Persona series even existed. I was more interested in 2D and 3D platformers such as Knack(I'm not joking), Ratchet and Clank, Rayman, Crash and Oddworld. Even when P5 was released, the game didn't catch my attention, and I completely forgot about that game. I saw a few fan arts of Jack Frost, the most adorable and popular demon of Shin Megami Tensei series, but nothing more. Only when Joker was announced to be the first character in Fighter Pass I then started to be more interested in Persona series. I tried P4 Golden, and really liked it. And I started searching for more information about SMT and Persona games, and now you can call me a Persona fan.

Sure, Persona series is the most selling, but I feel like the most people from Smash community had a similar story like mine. The fact that Atlus is pushing Joker is obvious business decisions to make him more recognizable. If Persona 5 didn't exist Yu would be a new playable character instead of Joker because P4 is also a big game like the 5th game.

Sonic the Hedgehog and Tracer are so popular and recognizable to the point where people who never played their games know who they are. Joker is not in that category of characters, sadly. And that's why his reveal was so "unexpected".

Don't get me wrong, I like Persona games, but I feel like Joker isn't that huge as you may think.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Yeah, about recognition...
I would like share my story Persona series.
Way before I bought my PS4 and Joker joined the roaster I didn't know Persona series even existed. I was more interested in 2D and 3D platformers such as Knack(I'm not joking), Ratchet and Clank, Rayman, Crash and Oddworld. Even when P5 was released, the game didn't catch my attention, and I completely forgot about that game. I saw a few fan arts of Jack Frost, the most adorable and popular demon of Shin Megami Tensei series, but nothing more. Only when Joker was announced to be the first character in Fighter Pass I then started to be more interested in Persona series. I tried P4 Golden, and really liked it. And I started searching for more information about SMT and Persona games, and now you can call me a Persona fan.

Sure, Persona series is the most selling, but I feel like the most people from Smash community had a similar story like mine. The fact that Atlus is pushing Joker is obvious business decisions to make him more recognizable. If Persona 5 didn't exist Yu would be a new playable character instead of Joker because P4 is also a big game like the 5th game.

Sonic the Hedgehog and Tracer are so popular and recognizable to the point where people who never played their games know who they are. Joker is not in that category of characters, sadly. And that's why his reveal was so "unexpected".

Don't get me wrong, I like Persona games, but I feel like Joker isn't that huge as you may think.

I don't think Joker is in the Sonic category, or even Tracer category. It's hard to find characters who are nowadays. What I'm saying is Joker is much more recognizable to the gaming audience than Rayman, after all the exposure Persona 5 got.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Rayman

Chance: 5%

His spirit hurts him so badly. Ubisoft and Nintendo have a very good relationship, but when it comes to Smash, Rayman just has bad luck with him being a trophy in Smash 4 and now a spirit. I get the feeling that Sakurai respects Rayman enough to give him a spirit, but not enough to make him a playable fighter. I don't see him happening. Period. Especially with so much competition from other western characters.

Want: 70%

I'm not a big Rayman fan but I did play the original game on the PS1 and loved it. He would have a unique moveset with his arm acting like a boomerang and his aesthetic fits Smash so well. He would bring such a beautiful stage and some great music with him to the game.


Ezio

Chance: 30%

As stated, Ubisoft and Nintendo have a really good relationship and I could see Ubisoft getting a rep. In terms of Ezio, Assassin's Creed (AC) is probably Ubisoft's biggest franchise right now and with Assassin's Creed 3 recently being brought over to the Switch, I could see more AC games coming to the Switch. This could make Ezio become a promotional pick for an upcoming AC game and he is probably the best character to represent AC.

However, he has several hurdles to overcome. First, he mostly uses swords which is a meme in the Smash community and with Hero using a sword, that will hurt any sword users' chances. He does have other things in his arsenal like smoke grenades, dynamites, etc. But I kind of struggle to see how they can make him unique enough to give him a spot in the very limited DLC roster. Second, he has a lot of competition from other western characters, including but not limited to: Doom Slayer, Dragonborn, Crash Bandicoot, and Spyro. Overall, I am somewhat high on his chances compared to other people on here and maybe I'm sticking my head out, but Ezio does have merit with Assassin's Creed being very popular and him being Ubisoft's most likely character. Feel free to point out anybody else though.

Want: 50%

I"m not sure if I want him. I definitely would not dislike his inclusion and he might make for a fun moveset, but at the same time I only have played Black Flag and did not get far into it so I don't have much attachment to the series. Also, the stage might end up being a bit generic as well. I'm completely mixed.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I don't think Joker is in the Sonic category, or even Tracer category. It's hard to find characters who are nowadays. What I'm saying is Joker is much more recognizable to the gaming audience than Rayman, after all the exposure Persona 5 got.

Big disagree on my part for that, but I can see where ya come from.

 

[FancySmash]

Ah, I missed 4 characters. Shame, I would've liked to rate Captain Toad and Dixie Kong. Oh well, that's what happens I guess when I have exams to prepare for.

Now on to today's scheduled program.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I'm sure he's glad a majority of Rabbids now live in Mario's universe.

Chance: 5%
Frozen on battlefield or otherwise, I think Rayman has better chances than most third party characters. However, there are many, many other third party characters that are likely to get in over him. Even if Ubisoft were to get a character, I don't know if Nintendo would choose Rayman. I'll give Rayman this, he gives off the vibe of a Nintendo character better than a lot of Ubisoft's other properties.

Want: 95%
Rayman is actually the third party I'd like to see the most. Why? Is it because I grew up with the series? No, not really. Did I really enjoy Legends and Origins? Haven't played them actually. But I have some exposure to Rayman, and after seeing him get the trophy treatment in 4, and then degraded to spirit in Ultimate, I feel for him. I think he really deserves the shot, especially with the good relations Ubi and Nintendo have.

"That's the guy with the briefcase. gasp, The assassin!"

Chance: 10%
Maybe, I guess? As said, Ubisoft's rather chummy with Nintendo, so it could lead to a character in Smash. Assassin's Creed is also... modestly popular. I wouldn't see it as impossible. That said, I can't say I see any place overly clamoring for a character. Maybe that's because the series has multiple protagonists, but Hero has proven that this issue could actually be a non-issue. But do the Rabbids give them competition? While most wouldn't want them, they do have quite the presence with Ubisoft...

Want: 30%
Not really into the Assasin's Creed series myself. That said, I also don't know a lot about the franchise itself. So, I'd normally go 50-50, but... he is competition for Rayman. Sorry Ezio.

Predictions:
Sora: Two square characters coming up! But didn't Square just get the Hero? Hmm, and this one has Disney elements? Lookin' a little tough... 5.46%
Geno: You're a spirit? Oof, that's a tough nail, but maybe you're numerous game appearances will help you... Uh... no dice there? Uh oh... Well what about fan demand? Oh, you have that? Maybe this isn't a lost cause... 9.88%

Nominations:
Kamek x5
Captain Rainbow x10

 

[MrUndy]

I don't think Joker is in the Sonic category, or even Tracer category. It's hard to find characters who are nowadays. What I'm saying is Joker is much more recognizable to the gaming audience than Rayman, after all the exposure Persona 5 got.

Yeah, popularity around Rayman Legends died around 2016, and the most of Ray supporters gave up on hoping that Rayman can still be playable in Smash Ultimate after seeing him as a spirit. No one asked for him to be playable in Brawlhalla, and most of people in community of that game hate Rayman just because he uses axe(most badly balanced weapons in the game) in that game.
BUT Only if Rayman got a new recent game or Ubisoft managed rise up hype around him as a new potential fighter in Smash like Shantae owners like to do, he could be AGAIN be recognizable like Joker now.
But, sadly, after seeing all small cameos and references in other games I feel like Ubisoft don't know what to do with him anymore.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Yeah, popularity around Rayman Legends died around 2016, and the most of Ray supporters gave up on hoping that Rayman can still be playable in Smash Ultimate after seeing him as a spirit. No one asked for him to be playable in Brawlhalla, and most of people in community of that game hate Rayman just because he uses axe(most badly balanced weapons in the game) in that game.
BUT Only if Rayman got a new recent game or Ubisoft managed rise up hype around him as a new potential fighter in Smash like Shantae owners like to do, he could be AGAIN be recognizable like Joker now.
But, sadly, after seeing all small cameos and references in other games I feel like Ubisoft don't know what to do with him anymore.

I think Ubisoft really needed one more push to make Rayman a really big deal. Nowadays we have tons of 2D platformers from studios big and small, there's certainly been a resurgence, but when Origins came out there was basically only Nintendo carrying the genre.

I honestly think after the quality of Origins and Legends, a third one on the Switch could be huge. Alas, money talks, especially to a company like Ubisoft.

 

[SKX31]

Spoilering cause I go into AskHistorians-level detail here, and I understand that super long posts are not encouraged here.

Spoiler: Rayman

Rayman, or "I got struck by Galeem and turned into a Sonic. Wait, why is this other no limb dude here? And where are my friends?":

Chance: 5 %

Not thinking that Spirits are superhard dealbreakers, but most possibilities are not charitable to him really. Honestly, the real wild card here is that Globox (and the Teensies IIRC?) went completely MIA in Ultimate. Without any further info it can be used to support Rayman's inclusion (which I don't see as that likely) or further sink his chances (which wouldn't be out of the question - the other Ubi spirits focus on Kingdom Battle).

The circumstancial stuff is not helping him though, he's the kind of character I think we might see in a possible second wave or the base game of a future Smash game (which I think is more likely on the face of it). If anything, I don't think he's completely out of the picture post-Fighter Pass.

Want: 75 %

I'm saying this as someone who grew up with (and got stuck in, don't ever tell that to my 9 year old self back in ''99-2000) Rayman 2, and have further experience with Rayman 3 (that game took my 13 year old self for a loop). It's not easy, but really, not every video game character's going to have the same consistency as say Mario. That's tough to swallow, but I don't think Ubi's the kind of company to let a character lay in bed for too long. There's also the question if Banjo fills Rayman's niche essentially, but that question's kinda wonky when one gets into the details.

Still, he's high on my want list not just due to fond memories - he also has the flexibility to be a compelling and unique Smash character. Where to pull from though? Rayman 2, where he's your "Kinda weird but recognizably 3D platformer"? Or Rayman 3, where he gets the "Super weird powerups from souped up soup cans?" Or Origins / Legends, where he returns to "Kinda weird, but now I'm (New Super) Mario with a crazier edge to my style!"? Any way, there's loads to pull from.*

*(Not saying the derivation's bad, though.)

Spoiler: Ezio, also, discussion on historical characters in Smash

Ezio, or "Nothing is true, Everything is permitted. Including real-ish stuff, I suppose. Hey, why does that hedgehog sound familiar..."

Chance: 20 %

Honestly I think that people are underrating his chances. Might be my AC-fandom speaking, but I don't think his chances are truly bad. It's not a pick that the Smash fandom will go crazy over, granted, but he could fill a lot of different niches pretty well. Assassins are not exactly common, he has some unique weaponry (not just smoke bombs, but also a crossbow and the signature Hidden Blade) and he could bring some more flair to the Smash series. Yea, I know, the clothes are kinda bland, but I don't mind when he can also bring a different kind of a dancing fighting style.

One relatively undiscussed factor is if Sakurai feels that Joker fills Ezio's niche already or not. On a thematic level I could see it: both are practically Assassins with a speciality. Joker does his work in peoples' minds, in order to "brainwash the positive way!" - which is morally questionable on the face of it - while Ezio's an outright killer who only kills well intentioned extremists and psychopaths in the Templar ranks. Also morally questionable. Again, it's wonky when they would presumably play rather differently, and have different looks to them. Ezio in his home games dances when battling essentially, Joker's much more of a straight up sneakster / magic user. [Edit for cleanup]

Another interesting tidbit is that there's a spirit from Nintendo's Napoleon game (A Fire Emblem esque game, released only in Japan and, you guessed it, France.). This tidbit could hamper Ezio significantly since the spirit is that game's main character, a fictional general named Alessandro Inzaghi. To elaborate on when I took this up last time - and when osby pointed out that Dr. Kawashima - a real person - is already in the game:

I don't think Dr. Kawashima's and any big time historical characters are exactly in the same position. Dr. Kawashima agreed to and signed a contract with Nintendo to help produce the Brain Age games. Napoleon? Nobunaga (Pokemon Conquest)? Leonardo Da Vinci (AC 2)?

No, nuh uh. Nada. They are older than Nintendo itself by at least a lifetime. Same would go for any now-dead historical characters really.

When I said that Nintendo risked the mother of all firestorms if they put in Napoleon into Ultimate - even if fictionalized - I'm speaking from the point of view that any big historical characters in Smash are likely to draw scrunity from someone. Questions like "Does this Spirit Battle really rep Napoleon / Nobunaga / whoever?". Incredibly thorny question. Kawashima avoided that question since his battle is based around his AT and math. Not his real work as a neuroscientist. And in case one argues that Nobunaga could skirt around the question too since he's been fictionalized a ton - I'll retort that he's gotten the Historical Villain upgrade a lot. And that can easily lead into a whole forest's worth of really thorny questions.

Napoleon is still hotly debated within academic circles to this day, and Machiavelli - one of Ezio's friends in AC2? Same kind of boat. In other words, a potential minefield.

Historical characters also kinda fall into the "4th party" category, which is probably why historical Dynasty Warriors characters are not dominating the speculating scene any time soon.

So nope. Any AC spirits would have to be fictional most likely.

Want: 75 %

AC happens to be right in my alley, so I'd be really excited personally to see him in. Not just because I'm a history buff - I think he has the character flexibility and the flair to make for an actually unique Fighter. Also, he would fit in thematically as a counterpoint - for example the "realistic" Italian to Mario's / Luigi's "cartoony" Italian.

In other words, I know I'd be relatively alone, but I'd be hyped to see him in.

Noms: Cadence x5

 

[Door Key Pig]

Rayman

Chance: 1%. I've already said that Spirits deconfirm in my mind, at least for this Fighters Pass, but for third party ones it seems even more damning since they had to go and license them, when we know DLC was being licensed and planned during early 2018. His various issues like being a complete unknown in Japan and the fan support not being as big as characters like Banjo are going to hold him back going forward. His major benefit is having some fan support and Nintendo's close relationship with Ubisoft, but I don't think it's enough for Rayman as is.

That's confirmed? Where?

 

[StormC]

That's confirmed? Where?

Well, we don't "know" it, I suppose, but we knew about the "Square character" since mid-2018 via Verge and a few people here have expressed knowledge that Banjo was decided on in April 2018. I thought Sakurai mentioned in his book that DLC plans started after January, but this is the most he says:

https://smashboards.com/threads/newcomer-dlc-speculation-discussion.453424/page-195#post-23349070

"- Smash Ultimate's DLC wasn't a thing at the time around Famitsu column vol. 546 January 11th 2018, and it was planned without the developers will. (p165)"

 

[Door Key Pig]

Huh, I mean there was that one Sakurai thing saying like "we had requests for Banjo and Kazooie even after Ridley and K. Rool" but I guess that doesn't hurt that alleged info.

So, if they were doing a second (third party containing) pass, they would have to start negotiations now? Would they have waited to see how the E3 reveal reactions and sales or something went before greenlighting second pass considerations and negotiations, that they'd thus start legal stuff in like, August or later of 2019 or something meaning it'd be a little later in 2020 when it would actually start?

 

[StormC]

Huh, I mean there was that one Sakurai thing saying like "we had requests for Banjo and Kazooie even after Ridley and K. Rool" but I guess that doesn't hurt that alleged info.

That quote was taken out of context.

https://nintendoeverything.com/banjo-kazooie-hero-smash-bros-masahiro-sakurai/

This was another fighter that I received a lot of requests for – mostly from overseas. That being said, King K. Rool and Ridley were pretty fervently requested too.

He was merely saying Banjo was a popular request alongside K. Rool and Ridley.

So, if they were doing a second (third party containing) pass, they would have to start negotiations now? Would they have waited to see how the E3 reveal reactions and sales or something went before greenlighting second pass considerations and negotiations, that they'd thus start legal stuff in like, August or later of 2019 or something meaning it'd be a little later in 2020 when it would actually start?

Really no way of knowing to be honest.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Spoilering cause I go into AskHistorians-level detail here, and I understand that super long posts are not encouraged here.

Spoiler: Rayman

Rayman, or "I got struck by Galeem and turned into a Sonic. Wait, why is this other no limb dude here? And where are my friends?":

Chance: 5 %

Not thinking that Spirits are superhard dealbreakers, but most possibilities are not charitable to him really. Honestly, the real wild card here is that Globox (and the Teensies IIRC?) went completely MIA in Ultimate. Without any further info it can be used to support Rayman's inclusion (which I don't see as that likely) or further sink his chances (which wouldn't be out of the question - the other Ubi spirits focus on Kingdom Battle).

The circumstancial stuff is not helping him though, he's the kind of character I think we might see in a possible second wave or the base game of a future Smash game (which I think is more likely on the face of it). If anything, I don't think he's completely out of the picture post-Fighter Pass.

Want: 75 %

I'm saying this as someone who grew up with (and got stuck in, don't ever tell that to my 9 year old self back in ''99-2000) Rayman 2, and have further experience with Rayman 3 (that game took my 13 year old self for a loop). It's not easy, but really, not every video game character's going to have the same consistency as say Mario. That's tough to swallow, but I don't think Ubi's the kind of company to let a character lay in bed for too long. There's also the question if Banjo fills Rayman's niche essentially, but that question's kinda wonky when one gets into the details.

Still, he's high on my want list not just due to fond memories - he also has the flexibility to be a compelling and unique Smash character. Where to pull from though? Rayman 2, where he's your "Kinda weird but recognizably 3D platformer"? Or Rayman 3, where he gets the "Super weird powerups from souped up soup cans?" Or Origins / Legends, where he returns to "Kinda weird, but now I'm (New Super) Mario with a crazier edge to my style!"? Any way, there's loads to pull from.*

*(Not saying the derivation's bad, though.)

Spoiler: Ezio, also, discussion on historical characters in Smash

Ezio, or "Nothing is true, Everything is permitted. Including real-ish stuff, I suppose. Hey, why does that hedgehog sound familiar..."

Chance: 20 %

Honestly I think that people are underrating his chances. Might be my AC-fandom speaking, but I don't think his chances are truly bad. It's not a pick that the Smash fandom will go crazy over, granted, but he could fill a lot of different niches pretty well. Assassins are not exactly common, he has some unique weaponry (not just smoke bombs, but also a crossbow and the signature Hidden Blade) and he could bring some more flair to the Smash series. Yea, I know, the clothes are kinda bland, but I don't mind when he can also bring a different kind of a dancing fighting style.

One relatively undiscussed factor is if Sakurai feels that Joker fills Ezio's niche already or not. On a thematic level I could see it: both are practically Assassins with a speciality. Joker does his work in peoples' minds, in order to "brainwash the positive way!" - which is morally questionable on the face of it - while Ezio's an outright killer who only kills well intentioned extremists and psychopaths in the Templar ranks. Also morally questionable. Again, it's wonky when they would presumably play rather differently, and have different looks to them. Ezio in his home games dances when battling essentially, Joker's much more of a straight up sneakster / magic user. [Edit for cleanup]

Another interesting tidbit is that there's a spirit from Nintendo's Napoleon game (A Fire Emblem esque game, released only in Japan and, you guessed it, France.). This tidbit could hamper Ezio significantly since the spirit is that game's main character, a fictional general named Alessandro Inzaghi. To elaborate on when I took this up last time - and when osby pointed out that Dr. Kawashima - a real person - is already in the game:

I don't think Dr. Kawashima's and any big time historical characters are exactly in the same position. Dr. Kawashima agreed to and signed a contract with Nintendo to help produce the Brain Age games. Napoleon? Nobunaga (Pokemon Conquest)? Leonardo Da Vinci (AC 2)?

No, nuh uh. Nada. They are older than Nintendo itself by at least a lifetime. Same would go for any now-dead historical characters really.

When I said that Nintendo risked the mother of all firestorms if they put in Napoleon into Ultimate - even if fictionalized - I'm speaking from the point of view that any big historical characters in Smash are likely to draw scrunity from someone. Questions like "Does this Spirit Battle really rep Napoleon / Nobunaga / whoever?". Incredibly thorny question. Kawashima avoided that question since his battle is based around his AT and math. Not his real work as a neuroscientist. And in case one argues that Nobunaga could skirt around the question too since he's been fictionalized a ton - I'll retort that he's gotten the Historical Villain upgrade a lot. And that can easily lead into a whole forest's worth of really thorny questions.

Napoleon is still hotly debated within academic circles to this day, and Machiavelli - one of Ezio's friends in AC2? Same kind of boat. In other words, a potential minefield.

Historical characters also kinda fall into the "4th party" category, which is probably why historical Dynasty Warriors characters are not dominating the speculating scene any time soon.

So nope. Any AC spirits would have to be fictional most likely.

Want: 75 %

AC happens to be right in my alley, so I'd be really excited personally to see him in. Not just because I'm a history buff - I think he has the character flexibility and the flair to make for an actually unique Fighter. Also, he would fit in thematically as a counterpoint - for example the "realistic" Italian to Mario's / Luigi's "cartoony" Italian.

In other words, I know I'd be relatively alone, but I'd be hyped to see him in.

It actually is quite the contrary. I wholeheartedly encourage long detailed posts with a ton of analysis. What is discouraged is just dumping a score without much real thought behind it. These right here are model posts in my eyes, and I am glad to see them!

Don't forget to nominate any characters you want to discuss in the future (you get 5 a day), and be sure to stick around. I would love to see this analysis tomorrow for Sora and Geno.

Also a friendly reminder that the day will end tonight at 12 PM EST.

 

[JimboJaggi]

Alright, I'll give this a shot

Rayman:

Chance: 20%
I feel spirits are pretty much saying they won't get in, at least for this dlc pass, so flat out I don't think he's coming in this game. Though beyond that I think he has a solid chance if they were to do another pass or for smash 6 hypothetically. Ubisoft and Nintendo have a great relationship and Rayman has been on Nintendo a lot. According to Wikipedia the Rayman series has even outsold Spyro, though not Crash. If Ubi were to get a rep I feel it would be him, then again Mario and Rabbids happened, but just the fact that he's a spirit tells me that they know he's a prevalent choice for ubisoft.

Want: 80% or something I dunno, I don't like numbering stuff like this.
I like Rayman, though I've only really played one of his games being Origins. I need to get around to playing some of his 3d platformers as those seem really great. He just seems like a cool character in general and he'd fit right in.


Ezio: like 10%
As a wtf thing I could see it happening, but you could say that for a lot of stuff like this. Has he ever actually been on a Nintendo system? Even just a cameo in the background of one of the Assassin's games that are on Nintendo, or any sort of costume in anything? Assassin's creed has also moved pretty far from him recently, I know that much, but AC is a huge series that actually has a character design recognizable enough to do a crossover like this.

Want: Like not much, but mainly since I'd want Rayman a lot more so like 40%
I'd just prefer Rayman, but if he got in I'd be down for this guy honestly. There's a decent amount of Assassin's games on Nintendo and despite being kind of controversial the fact that the series is still going and still pretty big is really impressive. Like I said the design is iconic enough to work as shown by his appearance in Soul Caliber. Though what would his stage be? Just Rome? Just having real ancient people in the background? Would the pope be a spirit? WOULD HIS UNCLE MARIO BE A SPIRIT? You know what I'll bump up the want meter by like 30% if the pope and Mario are spirits

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Abstaining on Ezio.

Rayman
Chance: 0%
Want: 55%

So he's a spirit, not just any spirit, but a master spirit. This means the spirit plays a role in WoL to help you progress through the game. This is a chance killer imo. Also people claim to be seeing Rayman frozen in Battlefield, but I don't believe it's him after looking at it. He would be cool though, and I would be excited if he made it. Sadly, it's not gonna happen.

Squeenix rejects:
Sora 2.32%
Geno 0.91%

Heavy Weapons Guy x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Alright, I'll give this a shot

Rayman:

Chance: 20%
I feel spirits are pretty much saying they won't get in, at least for this dlc pass, so flat out I don't think he's coming in this game. Though beyond that I think he has a solid chance if they were to do another pass or for smash 6 hypothetically. Ubisoft and Nintendo have a great relationship and Rayman has been on Nintendo a lot. According to Wikipedia the Rayman series has even outsold Spyro, though not Crash. If Ubi were to get a rep I feel it would be him, then again Mario and Rabbids happened, but just the fact that he's a spirit tells me that they know he's a prevalent choice for ubisoft.

Want: 80% or something I dunno, I don't like numbering stuff like this.
I like Rayman, though I've only really played one of his games being Origins. I need to get around to playing some of his 3d platformers as those seem really great. He just seems like a cool character in general and he'd fit right in.


Ezio: like 10%
As a wtf thing I could see it happening, but you could say that for a lot of stuff like this. Has he ever actually been on a Nintendo system? Even just a cameo in the background of one of the Assassin's games that are on Nintendo, or any sort of costume in anything? Assassin's creed has also moved pretty far from him recently, I know that much, but AC is a huge series that actually has a character design recognizable enough to do a crossover like this.

Want: Like not much, but mainly since I'd want Rayman a lot more so like 40%
I'd just prefer Rayman, but if he got in I'd be down for this guy honestly. There's a decent amount of Assassin's games on Nintendo and despite being kind of controversial the fact that the series is still going and still pretty big is really impressive. Like I said the design is iconic enough to work as shown by his appearance in Soul Caliber. Though what would his stage be? Just Rome? Just having real ancient people in the background? Would the pope be a spirit? WOULD HIS UNCLE MARIO BE A SPIRIT? You know what I'll bump up the want meter by like 30% if the pope and Mario are spirits

Assassin's Creed II: Discovery is a DS game and you play as Ezio in it.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Abstaining on Ezio.

Rayman
Chance: 0%
Want: 55%

So he's a spirit, not just any spirit, but a master spirit. This means the spirit plays a role in WoL to help you progress through the game. This is a chance killer imo. Also people claim to be seeing Rayman frozen in Battlefield, but I don't believe it's him after looking at it. He would be cool though, and I would be excited if he made it. Sadly, it's not gonna happen.

Squeenix rejects:
Sora 2.32%
Geno 0.91%

Heavy Weapons Guy x5

While Rayman is a neutral spirit, he ain’t a master spirit like Doc Louis or Slowpoke.

 

[3BitSaurus]

While Rayman is a neutral spirit, he ain’t a master spirit like Doc Louis or Slowpoke.

I can already see it: "Dojo: Limbless Style". Sounds about right.

 

[Klimax]

Rayman
Chances: 0% he's a spirit, nothing else to say.
Want: 100% the first Rayman is the best 2D platformer of the fifth generation of the video games consoles. The second game is one of the best 2D/3D transition in the history. The third game is a really solid action platformer. He's iconic, funny and could be unique. That's a shame that he's not already in the game.

Ezio:
Chances: 0% because come on, he's a good fit for Soul Calibur but definitely not for Smash. Also, no one asked for him, the franchise is not as big as it was back in the days. The sales are still huge but it doesn't make everything.
Want: 0% Assassin's Creed has one good game and that's the first one (being more focused on platforming than the others), the rest is highly uninteresting. You can hardly get more generic than this franchise.

 

[JimboJaggi]

Assassin's Creed II: Discovery is a DS game and you play as Ezio in it.

Huh well I'll be, I had no idea that existed. Cool though

 

[GoodGrief741]

Assassin's Creed has one good game and that's the first one (being more focused on platforming than the others), the rest is highly uninteresting. You can hardly get more generic than this franchise.

You know the first one isn't even the most critically acclaimed of the titles?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over.

Rate Geno and Sora, predict Ryu Hayabusa and Chosen Undead.

 

[GoodGrief741]

YO SMITHY

Chance: 0.5%
A Spirit. And a Square Enix character when we already have Hero. And I fully expect to get that Mii Costume to bury him even more.

Want: 100%
Geno is kind of a miracle of Smash speculation. He's a character that basically fulfills none of my standards and all of them at the same time. As a third party, he's not iconic, he's not the main character of any franchise, and Square Enix has like 8 characters I can think of that have better credentials. However, he's also a Mario character from an absolute classic of a game that was a hit and maintains a cult following to this day, and might have been responsible for the introduction of a generation of Westerners to RPGs - after Dragon Quest but before FFVII and parallel to Square's amazing RPG entries on the SNES.

And you know what? Geno is a cool ************. And his fanbase is so big they're going nowhere until he gets in.

Simple and Clean

Chance: 1%
Hero is still a thing and Sora, while owned by Disney, would still be a Square Enix character, but he gets double Geno because of the technical Disney loophole, plus his absence from the game.

And no, negotiating with Disney wouldn't be a big deal and anyone who thinks so is wrong.

Want: 100%
Talk about iconic. Sora is one of those massive gaming icons that would break the internet and blow minds. Kingdom Hearts is a fantastic series that will forever be in the hearts of many. As far as ARPGs go you don't get any bigger than this. From the music, to the worlds, to Sora's goofy design, he'd fit right in with the Smash crew. I have yet to play III so I don't know what the future holds for this franchise, but getting in Smash would be the crowning it deserves.

Noms: Kyle Hyde X5

Predictions: Ryu Hayabusa 49.12%
Chosen Undead 03.70%