....As a character? He's got a generic personality that most of the west doesn't even know about, since they have nothing to go off of. Really now, there's no good explination other than being a red haired fire using version of Marth, because those are the only things that truly stand out for him.
Perceived genericness is irrelevant, only popularity and importance matter. Roy has both.
His exclusion was intended. Possibly not desired, but clearly intended in the very end, since he was cut. The only characters who could even pottentially have been cut despite intentions are Dixie for the technical problems she created, and maybe Mewtwo because of the Pokemon slot limit. Roy is simply a clone, and there's no technical thing holding him back, yet he wasn't important enough to make the later cuts. In addition because of the fact that he got cut in Brawl, his chances of coming on later have been shot in the foot, since the series will almost certainly keep moving forward.
An intended exclusion means the character was never planned to return. This only applies to Pichu, although Doc wasn't very seriously considered.
Roy (and Mewtwo) had victory themes planned along with the rest of the cast (including Ike and Lucario, minus Wolf). If an old character is involved in a new feature, even if said feature didn't come about, that character was obviously intended to be in the game.
Side note, I know you think the roster is determined by slots and clones and whatnot, but it isn't. And there's no precedence that says cut characters can't return because we've never had cut characters before (blame Shigesato Itoi for ruining your chance to find out).
Why shoould I? Roy was a glorified promotion for FE6, and in the end not many people liked him. And as I said, there's nothing special about him in Melee, since for the western audiance out here, few played his game, understood what he said, and he was just a clone. By this type of logic, Young Link should have stayed in instead of Toon Link, since more people played Melee than they did Wind Waker. Also given the Mario spinoffs, more people probably know Waluigi and Daisy than say Bowser Jr, so they should add him instead. The problem with this type of thinking is that disregards the series itself in favor of things from spinoffs and cameos.
Except Smash Bros. MADE Fire Emblem outside of Japan. No other series has benefitted as much as Fire Emblem from being in Smash. Let me emphasize this:
The most important game to the Fire Emblem series is Super Smash Bros. Melee.
Look up anything on the history of either Fire Emblem or Smash Bros. I guarantee you a paragraph (at the top of the page if it's Fire Emblem) that basically says "Marth and Roy's popularity in Melee resulted in the localization of future Fire Emblem games." For good reason too. And here's the kicker: people outside of Japan liked Roy better! Sakurai even said Marth almost got cut in the international release. You may not like the reason why he's popular, you may think he's a pretty shallow character and a sucky unit. Too bad none of those things matter because the fans totally dig him.
Don't assume what works for one series applies to any other. Fire Emblem's case is nothing like Mario or Zelda.
Maybe, but as of yet, it hasn't happened yet. For all I know, FE4 will be brought over and Sigurd will be so popular that he's added, despite being another blue haired swordsman. For all I know, in that proposed Punch Out 2 for Wii, Doc Louise will have a major role so that he can pottentially become playable. Heck, in Golden Sun DS, the first half of the game could just be this new character, and the second half has Felix return through some time travel mumbo jumbo, thus making him the best GS rep instead of Isaac or this new guy. And as I've said before, FE12 could show up with a unique lord that ends all of these debates. Really now, whatever the future has is unknown, and can greatly change what we speculate on now, so for the sake of any type of arguments, it should be disregarded until it actually happens.
I like how being a blue-haired swordsman is an issue to you. Don't worry though, Sigurd won't get in.
Next Level and Camelot haven't suggested a playable Doc or Isaac (and PO2 doesn't technically exist yet). Only a co-op mode for PO2 and the new GS3 hero being a descendant of Isaac and friends. Compare to what the top brass at IS have said:
"We don't want to make more remakes unless SD is a big hit."
"We want to make a game that opens up Fire Emblem to an expanded audience."
"We want to make a game with an all-star cast."
When developers say stuff like this, they usually follow through. If all signs point to X, is it wrong to expect X?
As for FE12, well, maybe. It could come out and people could like a new Lord, but they could also pan it. FE fans don't accept everything thrown at them like some Pokemon fans tend to.
Don't put all your money on Ephraim #2 just because he/she will be new. Newness by itself is meaningless. Only what people think of them counts.