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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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SpectreJordan

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I mean... yeah? I don't see how that invalidates any of what I said.

It's still a thing because it was shared in a very specific place - a bubble of its own, if you will. Which ironically enough is what people often say is a good reason to not trust fan polls. So I don't think this should be considered a "Smash bubble vs. silent majority" thing whatsoever.
I have to agree. Heavy is definitely a popular pick, but he wouldn’t be #1 if the TF2 guys weren’t flooding that site. The other TF2 Mercs definitely wouldn’t be that high.

I feel Crash & Waluigi being that high is pretty indicative of what your average Smash fan & even gamer would pick for Smash. Push Master Chief, Sora, Kratos & Lara Croft higher for what the average gamer would probably want too. Maybe Dovahkiin, Ezio & Monster Hunter too.
 
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Cutie Gwen

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I mean... yeah? I don't see how that invalidates any of what I said.

It's still a thing because it was shared in a very specific place - a bubble of its own, if you will. Which ironically enough is what people often say is a good reason to not trust fan polls. So I don't think this should be considered a "Smash bubble vs. silent majority" thing whatsoever
Then either you've missed my point or I explained myself poorly, my point is how fan polls only ever get trusted when they stay in their respective bubbles, add a bigger bubble on it, then it doesn't count. There was overlap as the people who put Heavy on there are Smash fans, but it simply reflects that the people outside of the Smash bubble have such vastly different voices in general.

TLDR Fan polls are ****
 

SKX31

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I mean, you'd think we'd hear about them more often in that case.

Having a poll receive votes from a very specific fandom because it was shared in a very specific subreddit to begin with hardly proves anything about how people outside the "SmAsH BuBble" think.

Doesn't make the votes any less valid, but saying that this is somehow the "silent majority" makes no sense.
It'd be really interesting (even if nigh-on-impossible) to see if those polls could start incorporating the more casual / non-Smash Bubble people. It'd require something akin to the Ballot to reach them, and the poll would no doubt wind up including characters like Goku because Sakurai's words do not reach all 20 million+ people who have a Smash copy. Those 20 million+ are spread through out the globe and speak at least 11 languages (including some Nintendo haven't traditionally catered to, like Russian).

Croteam = Serious Sam and The Talos Principle. Based in Zagreb, Croatia.
Devolver Digital = The publisher of Fall Guys, Hotline Miami and the Hatoful Boyfriend remake. Also got the rights to publish Metal Wolf Chaos XD.
 
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JOJONumber691

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I think people are grossly overstating how old XC2 but that aside I still don't see why Dragalia Lost is a better option.

It's not available in all regions and it doesn't have any notable fan support compared to how demanded Rex is.
Like Nintendo even cares about that Fan Demand when ARMS gets in and nobody liked ARMS.
 

Cutie Gwen

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Ok so Nintendo's doing something crazy

They're officially translating a Japan only Fire Emblem game for NSO. It's only been leaked for Korea but this may end up being a worldwide thing if we're lucky. Do you think we might get Marth to coincide this? He has magical rapiers and ****, could be fun
 

Peeton

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What are games that you don't want to see in Smash, but you do like? For me, there's Grim Fandango and Super Meat Boy. (Some music from the latter would be pretty cool though.)
For me it’s Killer7. It’s a perfect game and I absolutely love it, but there’s no way they could do it justice in smash. I’d love spirits or a trophy, but anything else wouldn’t really work
 

Dinoman96

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Like I (and some others) have said: Dragalia Lost doesn't have a proper worldwide release. I don't see Nintendo completely alienating their European fanbase like that, so I don't see why it should be considered a contender.

Throw together a Switch port with an actual global release, then maybe we can talk.
 
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3BitSaurus

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Then either you've missed my point or I explained myself poorly, my point is how fan polls only ever get trusted when they stay in their respective bubbles, add a bigger bubble on it, then it doesn't count. There was overlap as the people who put Heavy on there are Smash fans, but it simply reflects that the people outside of the Smash bubble have such vastly different voices in general.

TLDR Fan polls are ****
No, I think you (and some others here) are missing the point behind fan polls.

Oh, only the characters popular in the Smash fandom rank high? Good! That's what they're supposed to measure.

If you "add a bigger bubble to it", of course you're gonna get different voices, because these are people that normally may not care about Smash. Which is the reason why they don't normally vote in polls in the first place.

And even when they do, they might not have the same understanding of Smash as we do - I don't think Goku, Spongebob and Iron Man got votes on the Ballot simply because of trolling, but also because a lot of casuals might genuinely want these characters, who are very popular in the mainstream, despite the fact that one of the very few hard rules we have (perhaps the only one) is "video game characters only".

There is some level of overlap, sure, but it's hard to tell how big or accurate it is. I don't think this means TF2 is more popular than Halo or anything, just that, because it was shared in the TF2 subreddit, more people came to see it and decided to show their support for the game, regardless of whether they care about Smash or not. Like, if people did the same thing in a gathering place for fans of GTA, or League, or whatever other popular game, you'd likely see something similar happening.

TLDR: Fan polls are only **** if you dislike the core fanbase's picks, really. It's practically impossible to understand the taste of people outside the core fandom, which is why "silent majority" is pretty much a buzzword at this point and lumps other bubbles together for no reason.
 

Cutie Gwen

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No, I think you (and some others here) are missing the point behind fan polls.

Oh, only the characters popular in the Smash fandom rank high? Good! That's what they're supposed to measure.

If you "add a bigger bubble to it", of course you're gonna get different voices, because these are people that normally may not care about Smash. Which is the reason why they don't normally vote in polls in the first place.

And even when they do, they might not have the same understanding of Smash as we do - I don't think Goku, Spongebob and Iron Man got votes on the Ballot simply because of trolling, but also because a lot of casuals might genuinely want these characters, who are very popular in the mainstream, despite the fact that one of the very few hard rules we have (perhaps the only one) is "video game characters only".

There is some level of overlap, sure, but it's hard to tell how big or accurate it is. I don't think this means TF2 is more popular than Halo or anything, just that, because it was shared in the TF2 subreddit, more people came to see it and decided to show their support for the game, regardless of whether they care about Smash or not. Like, if people did the same thing in a gathering place for fans of GTA, or League, or whatever other popular game, you'd likely see something similar happening.

TLDR: Fan polls are only **** if you dislike the core fanbase's picks, really. It's practically impossible to understand the taste of people outside the core fandom, which is why "silent majority" is pretty much a buzzword at this point and lumps other bubbles together for no reason.
I cannot agree, because it implies that people who don't get involved with the hardcore Smash fanbase don't count or don't matter, a friend of mine only ever plays video games with me and other friends but he doesn't give two ****s about who gets in, he'd go "Literally who" at the most often suggested charscters in these bubbles, but that wouldn't mean his desires don't matter. The point of these fan polls is to gauge interest among Smash fans, not gauge interest in a specific group of Smash fans. Let's say the next newcomer is from a wildly beloved series that we rarely talk about, does it mean it's not actually popular because said character didn't get votes on the polls shared amongst the same group of people over and over again? Smash fan polls always had rather different results depending on where you ask, NeoGAF and Tumblr were circles where Bayonetta was an especially popular pick, but us? We all got blindsided by her inclusion.


TLDR: Fan polls are super easy to manipulate and results very rarely take all kinds of variables into account
 

LiveStudioAudience

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You pretty much have to look at polls in aggregate; one that has Heavy in such a high position is not without its merit, but that one in and of itself is no more endemic of broad Smash support than individual ones done via Source Gaming. You can find trends and draw some conclusions if you have a decent pool of different voting events, and even that's still guess work.
 
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SMAASH! Puppy

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They're officially translating a Japan only Fire Emblem game for NSO. It's only been leaked for Korea but this may end up being a worldwide thing if we're lucky. Do you think we might get Marth to coincide this? He has magical rapiers and ****, could be fun
:rolleyes:

This does bring some interesting implications though. Hopefully translations of previously region exclusive games becomes a pattern rather than just special treatment for Fire Emblem. Though I wouldn't be surprised if this is only a thing because it's already translated thanks to Fire Emblem: Shadow Dragon. I guess we'll just have to see if Fire Emblem: Mystery of the Emblem gets the same treatment.
 

DanganZilla5

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I think Dante has a solid chance. It is a bit suspicious that the first game was announced months after the "Dante needs games on Switch first" comment and he does have mainstream popularity. But I think he is overrated. His fan demand only exploded in 2019, which I think is too late to be a factor.
 

cashregister9

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3BitSaurus

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I cannot agree, because it implies that people who don't get involved with the hardcore Smash fanbase don't count or don't matter, a friend of mine only ever plays video games with me and other friends but he doesn't give two ****s about who gets in, he'd go "Literally who" at the most often suggested charscters in these bubbles, but that wouldn't mean his desires don't matter. The point of these fan polls is to gauge interest among Smash fans, not gauge interest in a specific group of Smash fans. Let's say the next newcomer is from a wildly beloved series that we rarely talk about, does it mean it's not actually popular because said character didn't get votes on the polls shared amongst the same group of people over and over again? Smash fan polls always had rather different results depending on where you ask, NeoGAF and Tumblr were circles where Bayonetta was an especially popular pick, but us? We all got blindsided by her inclusion.


TLDR: Fan polls are super easy to manipulate and results very rarely take all kinds of variables into account
...Which is exactly what they do. The fact that Steve wasn't topping fan polls until Vergeben talked about him doesn't mean Minecraft wasn't popular before, just that people in the Smash fandom didn't really consider/care about it much and that there wasn't a lot of overlap between the core Minecraft fanbase and the core Smash fanbase.

Because, as it turns out, there's a lot of games bigger than Smash out there and a lot of games with little overlap between these fanbases and Smash. That's okay - it doesn't mean these characters should never get in or that these fans are less valid. And I say this as the owner of two threads for things that rarely get discussed here outside of half a dozen people. I couldn't care less that Ahri barely shows up in fan polls, really.

Can they be easily manipulated? Yes! Are they heavily influenced by current events? Absolutely! But I feel like people just want an excuse to say "see, these picks are only popular among Smash fans, the rest of the world doesn't care" - which is basically the exact opposite of the situation you described with your friend.

TLDR - sometimes you'll support something that isn't popular with the Smash fandom. Hell, not every fandom is crazy about their characters appearing in Smash - and that's perfectly fine and normal.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Devolver Digital are also the publishers (at least in the US) of this game...
... what, you thought the Chosen Undead would be our FromSoftware character?
I'm joining Smash...

And the reason is...

I'm the president of the United States of America!
 

SKX31

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Ok so Nintendo's doing something crazy

They're officially translating a Japan only Fire Emblem game for NSO. It's only been leaked for Korea but this may end up being a worldwide thing if we're lucky. Do you think we might get Marth to coincide this? He has magical rapiers and ****, could be fun

GUYS I THINK MARTH MIGHT BE IN
Hey, I'll take it. Marth's moveset should not only be based around tippers and grabs, that'd be annoying. :p



Yes, Yoshi shifts himself slightly forward in the GIF. Still, it's a classic.

Also, that Roy in the trailer is obviously Zain DontTestMe. :4pacman:
 
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Cutie Gwen

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...Which is exactly what they do. The fact that Steve wasn't topping fan polls until Vergeben talked about him doesn't mean Minecraft wasn't popular before, just that people in the Smash fandom didn't really consider/care about it much and that there wasn't a lot of overlap between the core Minecraft fanbase and the core Smash fanbase.

Because, as it turns out, there's a lot of games bigger than Smash out there and a lot of games with little overlap between these fanbases and Smash. That's okay - it doesn't mean these characters should never get in or that these fans are less valid. And I say this as the owner of two threads for things that rarely get discussed here outside of half a dozen people. I couldn't care less that Ahri barely shows up in fan polls, really.

Can they be easily manipulated? Yes! Are they heavily influenced by current events? Absolutely! But I feel like people just want an excuse to say "see, these picks are only popular among Smash fans, the rest of the world doesn't care" - which is basically the exact opposite of the situation you described with your friend.

TLDR - sometimes you'll support something that isn't popular with the Smash fandom. Hell, not every fandom is crazy about their characters appearing in Smash - and that's perfectly fine and normal.
Again, I can't agree because there's far more to it than raw results



GUYS I THINK MARTH MIGHT BE IN
MINA MITEITE ****IN KURE
 

SNEKeater

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****, didn't expect something like this. Very cool.
Now it would be great if they localized FE3, 4, 5 and 6, you know, the ones we never got officially. FE1 at least arrived here when they remaked it for the DS.

Edit: just saw it's for a limited time... seriously Nintendo? This is just stupid.
 
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JOJONumber691

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Honestly though, Euden is a really safe pick that brings in the Gacha Market. If Nintendo really is concerned about Dragalia Lost not getting released in Europe, which I doubt, then they could also allow in GranBlue Content into Euden's Pack considering how GranBlue VS came to Europe. I mean, CyGames already partially owns Dragalia so I don't see this being problematic at all. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Granblue_Fantasy_Versus
 

Rie Sonomura

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****, didn't expect something like this. Very cool.
Now it would be great if they localized FE3, 4, 5 and 6, you know, the ones we never got officially. FE1 at least arrived here when they remaked it for the DS.

Edit: just saw it's for a limited time... seriously Nintendo? This is just stupid.
You’d think they’d have learned from Mario 3D All Stars...
 

3BitSaurus

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Huh. Interesting. Just wish they had done the same for Panel de Pon, tbh.

EDIT: Limited time!? Man, **** off with that.

What are games that you don't want to see in Smash, but you do like? For me, there's Grim Fandango and Super Meat Boy. (Some music from the latter would be pretty cool though.)
Undertale, GTA and Silent Hill come to mind. I just don't see any plausible way of these characters being both fun to play and true to form. Imo they feel like AT/Mii material at best.

But hey, Sakurai has proven me wrong on that before :ultbayonetta:, so I wouldn't be mad if it happened.
 
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JOJONumber691

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Garteam

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Controversial opinion time: The "Smash Bubble" as a term has evolved into little more than shorthand for "This character I don't like is popular amongst the core fanbase, but their popularity is overblown by a vocal minority. Now this character I like, on the other hand, they've got real popularity. It's just from a silent majority that's drown out by all these nasty Smash fans that don't want a different opinion".

Not only do these takes usually have little in objective evidence or argumentation to back it up, but in what world is being popular amongst the core fanbase a knock against a character? They are the people who actually, y'know, buy and play the game, so throwing them a bone isn't necessarily a bad thing. The core fanbase's requests got Ridley, K. Rool, and Banjo in and it's unlikely that "Everyone is here!" would've happen if not for fans demanding their long lost mains return.

That's not to say there aren't outsiders with valuable input, or that we've never gotten any interesting characters or ideas from listening to more casual requests, but it seems just as backwards to suggest that certain characters don't have legitimate popularity because they're only popular amongst a certain demographic.
 
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SMAASH! Puppy

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Honestly though, Euden is a really safe pick that brings in the Gacha Market. If Nintendo really is concerned about Dragalia Lost not getting released in Europe, which I doubt, then they could also allow in GranBlue Content into Euden's Pack considering how GranBlue VS came to Europe. I mean, CyGames already partially owns Dragalia so I don't see this being problematic at all. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Granblue_Fantasy_Versus
The only reason Nintendo would have for adding Euden is if they want to expand Dragalia Lost beyond its gacha game. Its future is otherwise too uncertain, and looks pretty bleak.

Just Pirate the Games and Nintendo will learn.
No.

Do not promote piracy.
 
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Schnee117

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I wouldn't be surprised if this was also intended to be released months ago before Nintendo hit the panic button with Covid.
The game first released on April 20th and people found official English text back in March.
 

JOJONumber691

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Also, they're definitely doing the Limited Release thing with BotW2 now that I think about it. Again, just pirate the games and Nintendo will learn.
 
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