What a beatiful post.
I do feel that he's arguably the most likely candidate from fighting games:
- Heihachi and Tekken are deconfirmed as a whole for Pass 2, which for a lot of people, including me, seemed like the most logical and likely option for the genre.
- Mortal Kombat. Not gonna say it's banned on Japan, because that isn't true, but certainly the series is barely popular over there. I do think they could tone down Scorpion, but maybe it wouldn't be easy.
- Killer Instict character. Similar case to MK, plus honestly, I strongly doubt we would get a KI rep despite of being a cool option, as our second Microsoft rep. I feel other Rare properties, besides Chief and Steve, are in a better position than KI.
- Soul Calibur. I feel SC has better chances that the 2 previous options, but if we couldn't get a Tekken rep, I don't think SC is in a better position, because I don't see us getting Soul Calibur before Tekken.
- Blazblue. The series is, as far as I know, a bit more popular than Guilty Gear in Japan, which could play a role, but GG has more fans outside there. ArcSys getting a character would be already surprising to an extent, so Blazblue doesn't sound impossible. But with Guilty Gear being an older series with more legacy,, that could hurt Ragna's chances. Probably it's because I'm biased but I have a hard time seeing Blazblue getting in instead of Guilty Gear, assuming we get an ArcSys rep.
Then there's Amingo from MvC which is arguably the greatest pick we could get. But besides him, I think Guilty Gear is in a nice position. Of course, being in a good position won't determine if a character gets it or not, I mean, I'd be still super surprised if somehow GG manages to get a character,, but with the information and the things we have and we know so far, this is more or less what I think about the series in relation to Smash.