Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Cosmic77]

Personally, I don't understand why people act like the "fan rule" issue is so one-sided.

I see plenty of people call out those who are quick to dismiss a pattern as a fan rule, but very few people will point out users who get aggressive or hostile whenever their observations are questioned. I could go back to 2019 and find several pages worth of posts dismissing or belittling people who were gullible enough to believe the first pass could get either a first-party or a character from an existing franchise. Just last month there were people who believed you had to be extremely arrogant or dull to believe there wouldn't be a reveal soon after the "New" tab on Min Min was removed.

There's people on both sides, yet I see the same users act like one side is the victim and one is the aggressor. It's not that black and white, and while everyone has their own personal experiences that influence their opinions, I wish more people would be willing to acknowledge both sides instead of acting like only one of the two is an issue.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Scoliosis Jones I get what you're saying and I agree, but you aren't exactly practicing what you're preaching. You yourself, preemptively I might add, said that if an Assist Trophy got promoted, it doesn't mean anything for any other. Yet now you criticize people for pulling the same card? Like you said, at the very least, it certainly can't hurt.

At the end of the day, it kinda just boils down to the characters people want. A new game will be good for a character's chances if you want them, and mean nothing if you don't.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Scoliosis Jones I get what you're saying and I agree, but you aren't exactly practicing what you're preaching. You yourself, preemptively I might add, said that if an Assist Trophy got promoted, it doesn't mean anything for any other. Yet now you criticize people for pulling the same card? Like you said, at the very least, it certainly can't hurt.

At the end of the day, it kinda just boils down to the characters people want. A new game will be good for a character's chances if you want them, and mean nothing if you don't.

That's not exactly what I said. It was more that, while spirits are "on the table" it still comes down to the individual pick. For example, with Min Min getting an upgrade, does that mean every single spirit has a new lease on life, or only particular ones? What makes some stand out among others?

That's mainly what I was getting at. There were reasons outside of being a spirit that Min Min was picked, so what other reasons outside of being an assist upgrade would assist trophies need/already have to look good as a potential upgrade?

Isaac is a popular pick, but with Golden Sun essentially nowhere to be seen he doesn't seem to be in the same situation, for example.

This is still relevant to what I'm saying today. We have characters like Travis or Dante who have releases on Switch. But how are those different than others? What can be communicated about those that makes them stand out? Otherwise it's a generalization that doesn't quite as effectively communicate the idea imho.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Scoliosis Jones I get what you're saying and I agree, but you aren't exactly practicing what you're preaching. You yourself, preemptively I might add, said that if an Assist Trophy got promoted, it doesn't mean anything for any other. Yet now you criticize people for pulling the same card? Like you said, at the very least, it certainly can't hurt.

At the end of the day, it kinda just boils down to the characters people want. A new game will be good for a character's chances if you want them, and mean nothing if you don't.

I'm pretty sure Scol's point is how people dismiss characters because they get recent news and are assumed to just be in the spotlight because of bandwagoning, the AT thing is cautious pessimism because if we get a promotion, not every AT will end up playable as there's possibly only 5 characters left

 

[7NATOR]

That's not exactly what I said. It was more that, while spirits are "on the table" it still comes down to the individual pick. For example, with Min Min getting an upgrade, does that mean every single spirit has a new lease on life, or only particular ones? What makes some stand out among others?

That's mainly what I was getting at. There were reasons outside of being a spirit that Min Min was picked, so what other reasons outside of being an assist upgrade would assist trophies need/already have to look good as a potential upgrade?

Isaac is a popular pick, but with Golden Sun essentially nowhere to be seen he doesn't seem to be in the same situation, for example.

This is still relevant to what I'm saying today. We have characters like Travis or Dante who have releases on Switch. But how are those different than others? What can be communicated about those that makes them standout? Otherwise it's a generalization that doesn't quite as effectively communicate the idea imho.

This actually would be an interesting Discussion, when it comes to Assists

I was thinking of this recently, but when it comes to Certain Characters being promoted from Assists, do they have more Merit now then they did back when the Base roster was decided in 2015, and When DLC was decided around 2017-2018, that could be a postive influence in them getting in, for example

Waluigi has been Playable in Tennis Aces and MK8 Deluxe

Shadow has been Playable in Sonic Forces and Team Sonic Racing.

Bomberman has Super Bomberman R

Shovel Knight has had Added Expansions to his game

Isaac hasn't gotten anything yet, but around 2018 he did have new trademarks With certain info that could point to something New Golden Sun related

And even others, along with the fact AT Characters Popularity shot up to their biggest Hype and popularity (Waluigi, Skull Kid, Shadow, Isaac come to mind)

 

[SuperSonicFlyer]

At the end of the day, what's stopping people from saying, "Yeah, I think this might mean X is in!"?

In my humble opinion, it's because people don't want to be "wrong", which is largely structured by the way society views success and failure. There's an inherent fear in failure, and that seems to get worse when put into what is essentially a public place that involves the hype beast that is Smash Bros.

Sure, I'm Old Man Jones. But this isn't how it always was. Usually people would take stances and defend what they thought with coherent arguments, but it seems that largely has been traded for "f-FAN RULE" and "EVERYTHING IS INCONSEQUENTIAL! REPENT TO YOUR NIHILIST OGRELORDS" whereas that makes for conversations of little interest, no progress, and no depth.

I'd kinda argue that that's part of why the fanbase quickly devolves into waiting for the next character, because there isn't much to talk about because...nobody is actually making an argument that isn't met with, "FaN RuLe" or a “It could happen, but *gasp* it also might not” type of response. There’s nothing necessarily wrong with that either, it just doesn’t make for conversation that’s all that exciting.

Eh, but what do I know. I'm just the 27 year old boomer of the thread/community.
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That's not exactly what I said. It was more that, while spirits are "on the table" it still comes down to the individual pick. For example, with Min Min getting an upgrade, does that mean every single spirit has a new lease on life, or only particular ones? What makes some stand out among others?

That's mainly what I was getting at. There were reasons outside of being a spirit that Min Min was picked, so what other reasons outside of being an assist upgrade would assist trophies need/already have to look good as a potential upgrade?

Isaac is a popular pick, but with Golden Sun essentially nowhere to be seen he doesn't seem to be in the same situation, for example.

This is still relevant to what I'm saying today. We have characters like Travis or Dante who have releases on Switch. But how are those different than others? What can be communicated about those that makes them stand out? Otherwise it's a generalization that doesn't quite as effectively communicate the idea imho.

Really? Please tell e more about this. I do agree.

While I would hate to bring this certain character up again, about spirits, Geno should fit in with what you said about spirits. I mean, in terms of standing out, I am not sure how Geno would do so. Even with a timed hits mechanic as people bring up in the Geno thread, that mechanic is possibly nothing new, and may have been used by another character like Incineroar. Plus, as a character, his obscurity and his lack of appearances in newer games make it harder for him to stand out compare to others, right? Plus, I think there is a bigger reason why he is a spirit in the first place that we don't know of.

In terms of Assist Trophies, there are those like Waluigi, despite being in many spinoffs; and Issac too, who is from a series that, as said, has not had a game for some time. I also want Dillon from that Rolling Western series, but I can't see how much he can stand out, and I don't think he is that likely, either.

 

[MooMew64]

To me, speculation and theories have nuance. Theorizing AT's aren't likely isn't saying "No, they'll never happen" it's just sharing an opinion that by looking at both past and recent trends, that there isn't really anything that indicates upgrades are more likely than they are before. Even Min Min can be a weird case, because there were clearly special conditions and factors that lead to her getting in, and there is no guarantee those same conditions apply to every single other Spirit. One instance of something does not make it a trend.

Trends can be broken, but the very basis of speculation is using these trends and past events to theorize what could happen. To write everything off as a fan rule stifles discussion and doesn't encourage different thoughts on the chances of characters. Just gotta respect each others opinions and not get so hung up on who's right and wrong in the end, cause at the end of the day, we're talking about things that could happen in a video game. Being right or wrong about that isn't really a big deal IMO.

 

[SuperSonicFlyer]

Scoliosis Jones I forgot to say, about wanting a character, while there could be cases where many want a particular character in Smash, I do think the hardcore or biggest fans are the ones who want him the most, or more than anyone else, like the Geno fans. I am a Geno fan myself, but I realize that wanting Geno does not make him stand out. He still has his negatives and drawbacks in terms of getting into Smash. People still want him, but that can only do so much. Plus, if he was not decided for the second DLC pass, wanting Geno, or any character for that matter will not change anything and get him in.

If you are 27, by the way, I happen to be older, so you are not that old.

 

[BernkastelWitch]

Fan Rules kind of lead to people on both ends of the spectrum lash out and be upset. Some people treat them as gospel and don't open their eyes and some people think Fan Rules are worse than death. It's something that is worth discussing but when it comes to character discussions it's best to at least try to be open minded. We can think "Which character would likely be the exception to this AT rule and whatnot?" for an example.

Some people just take the Fan Rule discussions a bit too much and causes issues down the road. At least that is what I see.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I'm pretty sure Scol's point is how people dismiss characters because they get recent news and are assumed to just be in the spotlight because of bandwagoning

I mean, that's absolutely a thing.

Nobody but Idon was talking about Demifiend before that last Direct. Afterwards...

 

[GoodGrief741]

That's not exactly what I said. It was more that, while spirits are "on the table" it still comes down to the individual pick. For example, with Min Min getting an upgrade, does that mean every single spirit has a new lease on life, or only particular ones? What makes some stand out among others?

That's mainly what I was getting at. There were reasons outside of being a spirit that Min Min was picked, so what other reasons outside of being an assist upgrade would assist trophies need/already have to look good as a potential upgrade?

Isaac is a popular pick, but with Golden Sun essentially nowhere to be seen he doesn't seem to be in the same situation, for example.

This is still relevant to what I'm saying today. We have characters like Travis or Dante who have releases on Switch. But how are those different than others? What can be communicated about those that makes them stand out? Otherwise it's a generalization that doesn't quite as effectively communicate the idea imho.

Every semi-realistic character's fans can probably give you a laundry list of things pointing to their inclusion. I agree that we need to look at characters on a case-by-case basis but in the end people will simply lend more weight to the points they want or the characters they want.

In the specific case of Travis, I don't see how a possible NMH1 port helps his case when he's already basically an honorary Nintendo character and NMH3 being a Switch exclusive is already a huge boon to his chances.

I'm pretty sure Scol's point is how people dismiss characters because they get recent news and are assumed to just be in the spotlight because of bandwagoning, the AT thing is cautious pessimism because if we get a promotion, not every AT will end up playable as there's possibly only 5 characters left

Both things are cautious pessimism. People are just more willing to be cautiously pessimistic about characters they don't actively want.

 

[SuperSonicFlyer]

I personally do not care for fan rules. They are fan made, meaning they are not official. Plus, they seem like an excuse, rather, to make it seem that a particular character will not get in. Either way, no one Nintendo ever said anything about fan rules. Sakurai never said anything either, and the fact that people can agree on them is ridiculous. I do not think fan rules are to be trusted, whether they were to be right or wrong. Even if they seemed right, that doesn't mean they are so because the higher ups at Nintendo or Sakurai can still confirm them not be why some characters did not get in Smash.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Just want to clarify something about the Smash site glitching. Apparently, the last time that happened (or at least, it happened that badly) was before Hero and Banjo were revealed. Can anybody confirm that?

 

[Arcane Jill]

Feel like fan rules should be considered, but they are not ironclad. They are mostly based on precedence and patterns, so while something going against a fanrule(s) doesn't make it impossible, I feel it should take a hit against its likeliness.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Scoliosis Jones I forgot to say, about wanting a character, while there could be cases where many want a particular character in Smash, I do think the hardcore or biggest fans are the ones who want him the most, or more than anyone else, like the Geno fans. I am a Geno fan myself, but I realize that wanting Geno does not make him stand out. He still has his negatives and drawbacks in terms of getting into Smash. People still want him, but that can only do so much. Plus, if he was not decided for the second DLC pass, wanting Geno, or any character for that matter will not change anything and get him in.

If you are 27, by the way, I happen to be older, so you are not that old.

See that's what you think but legit one of my nicknames from back in the Wii U/3DS days was Old Man Jones. I don't entirely remember why that was, but I think I just feel/felt like "the old man".

I think with Geno it's best to look at it for what it is. He's got the positive of being a character with long-running support, and recognition from Sakurai himself. I'd also argue that connection to Mario is a boon for him. That said, he's still a party member from a decades old spin off RPG. Compared to many other 3rd party candidates, he has stiff competition.

Every semi-realistic character's fans can probably give you a laundry list of things pointing to their inclusion. I agree that we need to look at characters on a case-by-case basis but in the end people will simply lend more weight to the points they want or the characters they want.

In the specific case of Travis, I don't see how a possible NMH1 port helps his case when he's already basically an honorary Nintendo character and NMH3 being a Switch exclusive is already a huge boon to his chances.

Both things are cautious pessimism. People are just more willing to be cautiously pessimistic about characters they don't actively want.

That's fair, however with the "case by case basis" turning into lending more weight onto things, is that a problem with the concept or the way people argue?

I don't even mean to be like "bias bad". It can be quite difficult to make a 100% unbiased argument, especially when we're talking about a game with speculation that involves multiple levels of personal preference. I think the larger issue is that folks present those personal preferences (nothing wrong with that) but then when put the test of "what makes that likely" it gets messy, because those personal preferences aren't always based in what appears to be likely. Then it can take a turn for, "here's information that I think leads to this conclusion", that sort of thing.

 

[SuperSonicFlyer]

See that's what you think but legit one of my nicknames from back in the Wii U/3DS days was Old Man Jones. I don't entirely remember why that was, but I think I just feel/felt like "the old man".

I think with Geno it's best to look at it for what it is. He's got the positive of being a character with long-running support, and recognition from Sakurai himself. I'd also argue that connection to Mario is a boon for him. That said, he's still a party member from a decades old spin off RPG. Compared to many other 3rd party candidates, he has stiff competition.


That's fair, however with the "case by case basis" turning into lending more weight onto things, is that a problem with the concept or the way people argue?

I don't even mean to be like "bias bad". It can be quite difficult to make a 100% unbiased argument, especially when we're talking about a game with speculation that involves multiple levels of personal preference. I think the larger issue is that folks present those personal preferences (nothing wrong with that) but then when put the test of "what makes that likely" it gets messy, because those personal preferences aren't always based in what appears to be likely. Then it can take a turn for, "here's information that I think leads to this conclusion", that sort of thing.

I can say some older characters as old as him may have bigger chances, too. I mean, his support and Sakurai wanting him in can only do so much. Fan support does not always get characters in, and I can say that there may be more as to what has to be fulfilled that may not have even been done yet, that does involve Square-Enix, that Geno may have to meet to get in.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

The Geno thread is saying specific series pages on the Smash site had difficulty loading, including Paper Mario, Zelda, Donkey Kong and possibly some others. Take that with a grain of salt

i hope Xenoblade and Splatoon were among them

 

[chocolatejr9]

The Geno thread is saying specific series pages on the Smash site had difficulty loading, including Paper Mario, Zelda, Donkey Kong and possibly some others. Take that with a grain of salt

i hope Xenoblade and Splatoon were among them

Can confirm, I was browsing there just a minute ago. They seem convinced an August reveal is iminent.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I can say some older characters as old as him may have bigger chances, too. I mean, his support and Sakurai wanting him in can only do so much. Fan support does not always get characters in, and I can say that there may be more as to what has to be fulfilled that may not have even been done yet, that does involve Square-Enix, that Geno may have to meet to get in.

Honestly the one thing that I think speculation relies too much on is fan demand.

Fan demand came through for Banjo and arguably Dragon Quest with Japan...but other than that I don't think fan demand was ultimately the deciding factor.

That doesn't mean it's meaningless, but every pick seems to need some sort of combination of factors to be realized.

 

[SKX31]

I do gotta ask something

Back when Both Doom-Slayer and Master Chief were both heavily discussed, there was always the sentiment that it could only be 1 or the other because while they are Different from each other in Specialties and Specifics (Doom-Slayer is more Aggressive compared to Chief and both have different weaponry), they both are Ultimately cut from the same cloth and would have alot of Mechanical Similarity and perhaps Audience Similarity for them to be in the Same Pass

Is there any other Duo or Group of Characters you feel that way for?

There are a couple:

* LoL / Dota 2. One could also include Hi-Rez's SMITE into this group. Although the three games have gotten more different from each other as time has passed, LoL and Dota 2 are siblings and rivals to each other essentially. They also tend to have somewhat similar concepts: LoL's Flash is a summoner spell available from the start of the match, Dota 2's Blink Dagger is a purchaseable mid game item. Both do the same things: Short instant teleports with a cooldown. Both of them are also seen in almost every match - Flash is useful on almost every character, Blink Dagger + a strong stun - especially AoE stuns - can possibly wipe out entire enemy teams. Less familiar with SMITE obviously, but point still stands.

* Fortnite / PUBG: Mostly with Tencent being connected to both Fortnite and PUBG, but they are also strong rivals to each other. Fortnite might put much more emphasis on arcade-y construction and reaction-based gameplay while PUBG strives for a more realistic take with resources being more time-consuming to procure and thus forcing the players' hands, but they also share from a lot of the same design space.

I'm struggling with others, but those are the primary two examples I have in mind.

(Edited out a paragraph since I didn't think it fit entirely.)

The Geno thread is saying specific series pages on the Smash site had difficulty loading, including Paper Mario, Zelda, Donkey Kong and possibly some others. Take that with a grain of salt

i hope Xenoblade and Splatoon were among them

Yeah, the Rayman thread (page 1 specifically) had trouble loading for a while. So again, take it with a grain of salt and tread cautiously.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Dammit

I meant to write SUPER Mario why did I type PAPER Mario

 

[SuperSonicFlyer]

Honestly the one thing that I think speculation relies too much on is fan demand.

Fan demand came through for Banjo and arguably Dragon Quest with Japan...but other than that I don't think fan demand was ultimately the deciding factor.

That doesn't mean it's meaningless, but every pick seems to need some sort of combination of factors to be realized.

Agreed. I would hardly say fan demand is the deciding factor in anything. In some cases, even for Geno if they have to work hard to get him in, it is not the most important factor. I say there is always more to what is done to determine who gets in Smash. More than any fanbase of any character can see with the naked eye, if you know what I mean.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Both things are cautious pessimism. People are just more willing to be cautiously pessimistic about characters they don't actively want.

That'd be cautiously optimistic if it's a character you don't want because I can assure you, if for example, saying Rex isn't happening isn't because I secretly want him but me not thinking AT promotions will happen doesn't mean I'm against the idea

I mean, that's absolutely a thing.

Nobody but Idon was talking about Demifiend before that last Direct. Afterwards...

Oh recent news can cause bandwagons, that's absplutely true, but there's also cases of people who hadn't thought about it only consider it then, people who didn't think the character was likely and stayed silent until something changed their opinion on liklihood and people getting introduced to the character by the recent news and thinking "Oh I really vibe with this, wish I knew it earlier".

TLDR: Bandwagons exist but they're not the only reason nor are they bad to begin with

 

[GoodGrief741]

That's fair, however with the "case by case basis" turning into lending more weight onto things, is that a problem with the concept or the way people argue?

I don't even mean to be like "bias bad". It can be quite difficult to make a 100% unbiased argument, especially when we're talking about a game with speculation that involves multiple levels of personal preference. I think the larger issue is that folks present those personal preferences (nothing wrong with that) but then when put the test of "what makes that likely" it gets messy, because those personal preferences aren't always based in what appears to be likely. Then it can take a turn for, "here's information that I think leads to this conclusion", that sort of thing.

Yeah, I agree, but I don't think anyone can claim to actually speculate that way, not you, not I. Everyone probably falls into those pitfalls at some point.

That'd be cautiously optimistic if it's a character you don't want because I can assure you, if for example, saying Rex isn't happening isn't because I secretly want him but me not thinking AT promotions will happen doesn't mean I'm against the idea

Not actively wanting a character isn't the same as actively disliking them. What I meant is, unless you want and support a character, you're probably going to look at stuff in their favor as minor or meaningless. Be that precedent, new games, rumors, trademarks, or the color of chairs. It's just not going to be on your radar.

 

[cosmicB]

For anybody wondering, this is what I meant by the "too much smoke" thing. Again, this is from the Geno thread, so take that however you please.

My eyes just glaze over whenever people bring up specific insiders/leakers for these theories. People are REALLY overestimating what kind of information people like King Zell or Imran have and it's 100% fair to disregard anything someone says if they truly believe these people have any idea of what's going on in Smash or Nintendo in general.

 

[ROBnWatch]

: because its the easiest character to make and they already successeded on making him a pokeball

If Ditto ever gets in, they should just have it use moves from all the other characters in the game, but randomly. Your side smash could be DK’s on one try, but the next time you use it you get Toon Link’s. You might get Villager recovery this time, but next time you use it you get Yoshi’s.

Immediately banned from tournaments.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I mentioned that I had gotten back to Bravely Default recently and I'm rather far into the game at this point. I have to say that I think it's an underrated pick for Smash. It's a series that Nintendo seems to be pushing, and it COULD be a pick that is picked based on the Nintendo exclusivity.

It's a smaller series from Square Enix, and despite the fact that I would really like to see 2B, Bravely would be a pretty good pick.

I mean, listen to these BANGERS:

 

[SuperSonicFlyer]

Scoliosis Jones I also want to say about Geno, that he is a likeable character from Super Mario RPG, but being likeable or popular does not always mean one is an all star or very important. Geno fans seem to fail to realize that, and Geno has only done so much to attain a good level of "star power" for a lack of a better word. Smash is for all star characters, and even though that does not mean no one who is not an all star can't get in, rather being from one, obscure game, Geno would have different reasons from being an all star compared to like Ice Climbers, R.O.B., Duck Hunt and Mr. Game and Watch, who, despite being old and not appearing in games for a long time, probably have more star power than Geno, maybe in a different way, but still...

 

[Wunderwaft]

I think Sol Badguy has a good chance to appear in the second pass. Strive is a new game releasing next year and it already attracted a ton of hype and interest, it's one of the biggest fighting games people are looking forward to. At this point it's hard to argue against GG being the flagship IP of ArcSys, if a character comes from that company it will most likely be from GG. Not to mention we already have ArcSys involved in Smash thanks to the Kunio-kun spirits but they don't have a playable character. It's similair to Koei Tecmo which is involved in Smash but has no playable fighter.

I've said before that fighting game characters are the most unique in Smash with how they play around Smash's controls and introduce fighting game mechanics to Smash. Sol would be no stranger to this since he can implement even more fighting game mechanics like air dashes, dragon install, or even a bloody meter.

With Heihachi dead (RIP ), I see Sol as the most likely fighting game character to be included to Smash Bros and since ArcSys is already involved with Smash there's literally nothing holding them back. Guilty Gear is the definitive face of anime fighting games and has a long ass legacy to their resume. Due to the hype garnered for Strive, ArcSys being involved in Smash, and GG's legacy, I see Sol having a really good chance as one of the next DLC fighters.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Not actively wanting a character isn't the same as actively disliking them. What I meant is, unless you want and support a character, you're probably going to look at stuff in their favor as minor or meaningless. Be that precedent, new games, rumors, trademarks, or the color of chairs. It's just not going to be on your radar.

Not wanting a character and then not thinking they're likely is more so apathy and disinterest rather than pessimism isn't it?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Not wanting a character and then not thinking they're likely is more so apathy and disinterest rather than pessimism isn't it?

Semantics really, I think your comment about cautious pessimism describes it well.

 

[SharkLord]

Scoliosis Jones I also want to say about Geno, that he is a likeable character from Super Mario RPG, but being likeable or popular does not always mean one is an all star or very important. Geno fans seem to fail to realize that, and Geno has only done so much to attain a good level of "star power" for a lack of a better word. Smash is for all star characters, and even though that does not mean no one who is not an all star can't get in, rather being from one, obscure game, Geno would have different reasons from being an all star compared to like Ice Climbers, R.O.B., Duck Hunt and Mr. Game and Watch, who, despite being old and not appearing in games for a long time, probably have more star power than Geno, maybe in a different way, but still...

I think it's also partially because the DLC has higher standards than the base game. With the base game, half of everyone's already sold because it's got Mario, Link, and Pikachu, so there's no harm done in slipping in a minor character for the sake of fun. Same with Piranha Plant; It's a harmless little bonus, and the character is easily recognizable. It's meant to be fun.
DLC, on the other hand, is content being sold separate from the game, so you'll need people to buy it. The DLC isn't just a fighter, either, but the game itself, sometimes even the company if you're lucky. Aside from the fighter, there's also Spirits, songs, and a stage tied to the game being represented, and popularity for a character can only get them so far.

 

[Opossum]

That'd be cautiously optimistic if it's a character you don't want because I can assure you, if for example, saying Rex isn't happening isn't because I secretly want him but me not thinking AT promotions will happen doesn't mean I'm against the idea

Oh recent news can cause bandwagons, that's absplutely true, but there's also cases of people who hadn't thought about it only consider it then, people who didn't think the character was likely and stayed silent until something changed their opinion on liklihood and people getting introduced to the character by the recent news and thinking "Oh I really vibe with this, wish I knew it earlier".

TLDR: Bandwagons exist but they're not the only reason nor are they bad to begin with

I definitely agree bandwagons aren't inherently bad, as they're often coming from some of the reasons you described.

The thing that I think muddies the water for a lot of people are the fairweather fans: the ones who only hop on because the character seems likely and they want to be right. Sadly the Smash community has a not-insignificant amount of those. These are generally the people that folks mean when they say they find bandwagoners annoying.

To give an example, back before E3 2019 there was this guy in the Banjo thread (not gonna name names) who claimed to be a Banjo fan, and then once evidence seemed to point toward Steve being in, he started talking bad about Banjo and saying how big of a Minecraft fan he was in Steve circles. Then when Shinobi said what they did and Banjo was all but confirmed they shifted gears again and returned to the Banjo thread like nothing happened, saying how excited they were for Banjo, and badmouthing Steve saying he made no sense in Smash. It was...eye-opening, to say the least.

It goes back to what Jones was saying about a good portion of this community only caring about being right in speculation, and little else, as if it's a competition or that getting something wrong will put you on a disparaging 4chan image collage or random cringe compilation video montage or something. I can assure you being right or wrong literally doesn't matter lmao. Nobody cares if you're wrong and especially not if you were right.

It all basically boils down to Fairweather Fans only being one type of bandwagoning, but due to them being the most "harmful" type of bandwagoner, the term becomes associated with them.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I wonder

does ANYONE expect or even want Gil? Out of pure curiosity

 

[SuperSonicFlyer]

I think it's also partially because the DLC has higher standards than the base game. With the base game, half of everyone's already sold because it's got Mario, Link, and Pikachu, so there's no harm done in slipping in a minor character for the sake of fun. Same with Piranha Plant; It's a harmless little bonus, and the character is easily recognizable. It's meant to be fun.
DLC, on the other hand, is content being sold separate from the game, so you'll need people to buy it. The DLC isn't just a fighter, either, but the game itself, sometimes even the company if you're lucky. Aside from the fighter, there's also Spirits, songs, and a stage tied to the game being represented, and popularity for a character can only get them so far.

That said, if a character like Geno were to get in, his best chance would be base game; especially if DLC has higher standards. And there is a lot to work on, and popularity does only so much, as you said. Popularity alone is not the deciding factor for characters getting in Smash. There are sadly those who do not realize that. Either way, any character can be hoped for too much, which isn't necessarily a good thing in itself.

 

[Calamitas]

I mentioned that I had gotten back to Bravely Default recently and I'm rather far into the game at this point. I have to say that I think it's an underrated pick for Smash. It's a series that Nintendo seems to be pushing, and it COULD be a pick that is picked based on the Nintendo exclusivity.

It's a smaller series from Square Enix, and despite the fact that I would really like to see 2B, Bravely would be a pretty good pick.

I mean, listen to these BANGERS:

You're talking about Bravely Default music, and don't even mention That Person's Name Is? You absolute mad lad.

 

[Arcane Jill]

Can confirm, I was browsing there just a minute ago. They seem convinced an August reveal is iminent.

Seems like they think that every week though.

I'm adopted a mindset of "it happens when it happens". Have plenty of games to play and shows and books to get caught up on until the fated day. Much less stressful than eying the calendar for each day a direct may happen.

 

[SharkLord]

I wonder

does ANYONE expect or even want Gil? Out of pure curiosity

You mean the Tower of Druaga guy? He's probably getting his Mii Costume back if anything, be it with Lloyd/Solaire/Whoever is the Bamco rep or with someone completely unrelated.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I wonder

does ANYONE expect or even want Gil? Out of pure curiosity

I don't want him per se but after learning the significance of Druaga and how Japan absolutely adores it, I would say he's a bit of a darkhorse pick in speculation, though his chances are as high as Geno and Lloyd imo, which isn't very likely at all

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Personally I think if Heihachi’s costume returned, Lloyd’s and Gil’s will too and we’d get a different Bandai Namco rep. If any.