Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

[Fatmanonice]

「第5回 #スマブラSPオンラインチャレンジ」、12月5日(土)に開催決定！#スーパーマリオ35周年 にちなんで、ファイター、ステージ、アイテムをほぼスーパーマリオシリーズに限定し、大乱闘形式で開催します。#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/qlHXZ07QFI

— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) November 15, 2020

I think it's more then possible to get a reveal this month, this upcoming week or the next maybe...

I say this week or the first week of December. I don't think Nintendo has ever had a major announcement on the week of Thanksgiving. For December, VGAs have been a hard cutoff for most of the industry ever since it started to be a respectable award ceremony instead of "how many dudebro memes can we cram into two hours?" Week of Christmas is a hard no and New Years is one of those rare holidays that almost everyone around the world gives a **** about to some degree so the week leading up and the week after are usually bone dry too. Kind of like I argued during the summer, Oban and New Years are the two BIG holidays in Japan and why mid July, mid August, and early January are times of the year when video game news is abruptly absent. So, in summary...

If nothing happens this week or the first week of December, we're probably going to be left holding the bag until the week of January 11th at the earliest.

 

[StrangeKitten]

I heard there have been people speculating in this thread and first of all, how dare you

 

[Paraspikey]

Never mind that development.

 

[Mikegamer0608]

I say this week or the first week of December. I don't think Nintendo has ever had a major announcement on the week of Thanksgiving. For December, VGAs have been a hard cutoff for most of the industry ever since it started to be a respectable award ceremony instead of "how many dudebro memes can we cram into two hours?" Week of Christmas is a hard no and New Years is one of those rare holidays that almost everyone around the world gives a **** about to some degree so the week leading up and the week after are usually bone dry too. Kind of like I argued during the summer, Oban and New Years are the two BIG holidays in Japan and why mid July, mid August, and early January are times of the year when video game news is abruptly absent. So, in summary...

If nothing happens this week or the first week of December, we're probably going to be left holding the bag until the week of January 11th at the earliest.

I say more like Piranha Plant and Byleth reveal/release time in late January is my guess.

 

[Deleted member]

I heard there have been people speculating in this thread and first of all, how dare you
View attachment 291930

That is quite the most illogical thing I’ve heard. SmashBoards is literally a website where we can speculate. If we’re not suppose to speculate which is the main purpose of a newcomer thread in a website that has threads meant for speculation, I don’t know what.

 

[Paraspikey]

That is quite the most illogical thing I’ve heard. SmashBoards is literally a website where we can speculate. If we’re not suppose to speculate which is the main purpose of a newcomer thread in a website that has threads meant for speculation, I don’t know what.

Yeah.

 

[Deleted member]

View attachment 291932
Yeah.

No I am referring to the user from the previous page I get this is a joke.

 

[ctt4lfecw]

I’d say this week could be a reveal from Sakurai. Ideally before Thanksgiving week. And then Geno is released a couple days before Dec. 5.

 

[Musubi]

So if the next fighter is a Mario character and they plan on releasing them for this tournament, what timeline of revealing and releasing do you all expect to see? I'd imagine that Nintendo would want the character to be released early enough to have time for people to learn their moveset and the matchup. The only thing that makes sense to me is to reveal the character this week and then release them early in the following week, like on a Monday or Tuesday.

This timeline seems a little short to me, and it's making me doubt if the next fighter will actually show up before this Mario tournament. I was hoping for the tournament to be more around mid-December for this reason.

 

[TheCJBrine]

If you have no way of knowing if something says something then it says nothing.

Isn’t that what common theories are in general? Speculation based on potential evidence but can’t be fully proven until further evidence hopefully confirms it? So they kinda say nothing until they do besides whatever idea you have for the sake of speculation?

I don’t see the issue here. It’s not like conspiracy theories.

 

[Vector Victor]

After seeing both sides for some time, I prefer the baseless speculation from the hopeful/optimistic group over the pessimistic 'keep Geno thread in line' hype police group. The optimistic faction at least has some variety in their posts and avoid constant digs at the thread (ie, 'worshipping Fatman' comments).

 

[StarLight42]

After seeing both sides for some time, I prefer the baseless speculation from the hopeful/optimistic group over the pessimistic 'keep Geno thread in line' hype police group. The optimistic faction at least has some variety in their posts and avoid constant digs at the thread (ie, 'worshipping Fatman' comments).

Except that the “worshipping Fatman” comment was made by someone who rarely visits the thread (if you look at their post history) so meshing that with everyone else who thinks we should hype a little more responsibly is a questionable take. I’m a little tired of the whole “optimism good, pessimism bad” shtick. It’s not that black and white and varies from case to case.

 

[Deleted member]

“Worshipping Fatman” is an overstatement. If people actually pay attention, they would know that a ton of people disagreed with a theory of his or correct him if there is something he got wrong at some point.

 

[Trevenant]

Anyone heard this remix? How would people wish music rearrangements were handled with Geno? And no, not just 'muh, remastered'.

 

[Fatmanonice]

I say more like Piranha Plant and Byleth reveal/release time in late January is my guess.

Potentially but a couple of reasons I think sooner than later:

-The gap between character announcements and releases has been significantly smaller this year. Of the 2019 releases, they ranged from about a month and half (Hero) to roughly four months (Joker). The 2020 reveals? 7 to 12 days.

-A big reason for the above is delays for different reasons. Byleth was supposed to be a December 2019 reveal but was delayed for unknown reasons. Min Min was supposed to be an April but was delayed for balancing. Steve was very likely supposed to be an E3 reveal but was delayed because of COVID (but according to Sakurai, Steve still released on time and "wasn't delayed").

-The next scheduled Amiibo wave after the one next Friday is mid February. If Amiibo theory holds the line, this suggests a character reveal or release around this timeframe.

-The weekend after the Mario Direct in September is so far the only week this entire year that didn't have a Smash event of some kind. The fact that the Mario Smash tournament is scheduled exactly three months following this empty weekend is definitely suspicious. In a non-Covid world,we've long speculated that there was probably supposed to be a September release and this kind of adds more ammo to that argument.

-Not only was this tournament announced three months out, it also has a limited edition special prize, something Nintendo hosted Smash tournaments rarely have except literal in-person tournaments at E3. They're definitely making a big deal of it.

 

[MisterMike]

Alright, theory time: One thing I've noticed about the DLC for Ultimate is that, in between each new fighter release, we've typically gotten ~3 Spirit event waves that contain new Spirits.

• Between Joker and Hero, we had the Nintendo Labo Spirits, the Peachette Spirit, and the Link's Awakening Spirits.
• Between Hero and Banjo, we didn't have any new Spirits added between them, however this makes sense given that they were revealed at the same time and were released relatively close to one another.
• Between Banjo and Terry, we had the Tockles Spirit, the Daemon X Machina Spirits, and the Tetris Spirits.
• Between Terry and Byleth, we had the Pokemon Sword & Shield Spirits, the Resident Evil Spirits, and the Astral Chain Spirits.
• Between Byleth and Min Min, we had the River City Spirits, the Cuphead Spirits, the Warframe Spirits, the Ring Fit Adventure Spirits, the Animal Crossing: New Horizons Spirits, and the Trials of Mana Spirits.
• And between Min Min and Steve, we had the Octopath Traveler Spirits and the Paper Mario: The Origami King Spirits.

So far, we've yet to get any new DLC Spirits after Steve's release. If this general pattern of ~3 DLC spirits between fighters means anything, then this means we'll likely not see CP8 until then. In other words, it's very possible we're not going to be getting any new reveals or releases until next year.

Since I'm on the topic of these DLC Spirit waves, I'd like to do a bit of domestic terrorism speculation, specifically regarding the period between Byleth and Min Min and what this could potentially tell us about CP8.

As has been theorized by others in this thread, and supported by the fact that there was supposed to be an amiibo wave in April this year that never happened, before The Coof happened we likely were supposed to have had Min Min revealed by March for an April release. This would mean that we most likely would've gotten three new Spirit Events between Byleth and Min Min's release, which is in line with this apparent pattern. The Warframe Spirits dropped in late February, meaning that they would've been the last ones before Min Min's release. The next couple DLC Spirit waves would follow that, leading up to the reveal of Steve. Then we have three DLC Spirit waves that would've followed, which could've lead into the reveal/release of... someone, maybe.

Thoughts? Fatmanonice papagenos

Which leads to this question: Is Geno hot?

Ehh... maybe?

 

[PK Duststorm]

-A big reason for the above is delays for different reasons. Byleth was supposed to be a December 2019 reveal but was delayed for unknown reasons. Min Min was supposed to be an April but was delayed for balancing. Steve was very likely supposed to be an E3 reveal but was delayed because of COVID (but according to Sakurai, Steve still released on time and "wasn't delayed").

-The next scheduled Amiibo wave after the one next Friday is mid February. If Amiibo theory holds the line, this suggests a character reveal or release around this timeframe.

Longtime lurker here, but I made an account just to ask a few questions. I've seen Fatman here post several times regarding amiibo wave information that I cant seem to replicate via google searching. Where in the world are you coming up with this supposed amiibo information? I'm also extremely curious about the supposed byleth delays and supposed Min Min original release window information. Beyond pure speculation, which trust me I have lurked long enough to be aware of, where is any of this coming from?

 

[Noipoi]

View attachment 291936
Ehh... maybe?

I’d let her feel the force of my pulsating rod.

 

[Fatmanonice]

MisterMike It's hard to say because COVID has ****ed up so much scheduling wise that we don't know if certain events have been simply held off because certain games haven't been announced yet. The Trials of Bananas and Paper Mario spirit events were still pretty close to the releases of their respective games but, as we're now painfully aware, games have been delayed a whopping 4-5 months on average thanks to COVID so it's hard to map out when certain things were supposed to happen.

 

[MrJudd]

Hoping this week brings some good stuff. Nintendo's behaviour has been kinda weird recently and I don't know what to make of it.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Longtime lurker here, but I made an account just to ask a few questions. I've seen Fatman here post several times regarding amiibo wave information that I cant seem to replicate via google searching. Where in the world are you coming up with this supposed amiibo information? I'm also extremely curious about the supposed byleth delays and supposed Min Min original release window information. Beyond pure speculation, which trust me I have lurked long enough to be aware of, where is any of this coming from?

Citation on Byleth supposed to be a December 2019 reveal:

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Downloadable Contents Discussion Thread 9 | New Decade, Same Old Debates

Not realistic enough.

www.resetera.com

Citations on original Min Min release window:

Isabelle Amiibo Figure from Super Smash Bros. gets a re-release on April 17th, pre-orders open now - Animal Crossing World

The Isabelle figure from the Super Smash Bros. Ultimate line of amiibo is getting a re-release soon to celebrate the release of Animal Crossing: New

animalcrossingworld.com

Twitter

Citation on changed Min Min's Amiibo wave:

https://www.bestbuy.com/site/nintendo-amiibo-super-smash-bros-isabelle/6255155.p?skuId=6255155&irclickid=UF6SwG2HzxyLRe805-R4sULoUkEzHsyHPXOUyk0&irgwc=1&ref=198&loc=Nintendo%20WIre&acampID=0&mpid=1878490

Citation on upcoming November Amiibo wave rerelease (it's all the Breath of the Wild champions):

https://www.bestbuy.com/site/nintendo-amiibo-figure-the-legend-of-zelda-breath-of-the-wild-series-daruk-goron-champion/5929302.p?skuId=5929302

 

[Griselda]

View attachment 291936
Ehh... maybe?

I actually kinda want a girl Geno as an alt, honestly. I'm a fan of more in-depth alts in general. But I'd be fine with any decent alts - one of my fears is that they'll pull a Sonic/Pac-Man and Geno's alts will all just be slightly different shades of blue.

 

[pinshadow]

I don't even want to give the guy a reply, but if you are seriously put off by theorycrafting and speculation because "well that's too outlandish, that's silly, I don't agree with that because it's not concrete enough"... well those are perfectly valid opinions to have but if your getting angry at other people just for having said predictions and opinions you disagree with, is this really the forum for you?

I mean, it's in the name.

 

[Fatmanonice]

I think it's funny too that this thread gets accused of "Fatman worship" when literally yesterday StarLight42 , a regular of this thread since 2018 said, and I quote verbatim, "Fatman, you're cringey AF. Oh my God...I'm ACTUALLY dying from the sheer amount of cringe some of your posts put out. Delete your account and give me all your Reddit Gold™. You don't deserve it."

 

[Peepo T. Skeleton]

Can someone fill me in on something I've forgotten? Are we expecting something specifically to happen on the 16th because of maintenance, or is there a number of days after that in which something could happen?

 

[JarBear]

If you have no way of knowing if something says something then it says nothing.

Speculation:

noun

The forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.
"there has been widespread speculation that he plans to quit"

I think you are checking out the wrong thread on the website. By this standard, then no threads should exist in the NEWCOMER SPECULATION thread.

Also, side note about the argument of the "Geno Fans only talking about Geno's chances and dismissing other (Square) characters" ... ummm .... Yes, the Geno Support thread is fundamentally bias since ... it is that character's support thread. I would agree if that bias was being blasted in the Newcomer thread it would be annoying and rightly "conceded" or "blind" or whatever ... but that's not what happens. It's contained in a single thread on this website since if you breath Geno, even outside of the support thread, you are a target and hated.

That's like going to a Dragon Ball Z fan club and criticizing them for not talking about how great One Piece is since they are so Dragon Ball Z biased. At their club.

Goes back to Slumber

 

[MisterMike]

Longtime lurker here, but I made an account just to ask a few questions. I've seen Fatman here post several times regarding amiibo wave information that I cant seem to replicate via google searching. Where in the world are you coming up with this supposed amiibo information? I'm also extremely curious about the supposed byleth delays and supposed Min Min original release window information. Beyond pure speculation, which trust me I have lurked long enough to be aware of, where is any of this coming from?

I cannot offer any elaboration. What I can offer, however, is a Geno hat:

 

[pinshadow]

Can someone fill me in on something I've forgotten? Are we expecting something specifically to happen on the 16th because of maintenance, or is there a number of days after that in which something could happen?

Number of days, I guess. I don't really think anything is going to happen this week with Age of Calamity releasing, aside from maybe an Indie Showcase, but the maintenance is still suspicious so we'll see what happens.

 

[Peepo T. Skeleton]

Number of days, I guess. I don't really think anything is going to happen this week with Age of Calamity releasing, aside from maybe an Indie Showcase, but the maintenance is still suspicious so we'll see what happens.

Thank you Todd Howard.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Can someone fill me in on something I've forgotten? Are we expecting something specifically to happen on the 16th because of maintenance, or is there a number of days after that in which something could happen?

There's a lot that started happening on Thursday and this coming week is absolutely stuffed with, er, stuff:

-Champion x Mario sweepstakes launched Thursday (ends next Friday)

-Special Mario 35 event launched Thursday

-Super Mario Game and Watch released Friday

-Mario Tennis Aces tournament was this weekend

-Pokemon Sword and Shield tournament was this weekend

-Zarude Sword and Shield sign up opened on Friday (ends next Friday)

-Special Mario Kart Tour event starts Tuesday

-Special Mario Maker 2 event starts Tuesday

-Mother pop up shop opens Monday (closes December 6th)

-Mario Smash tournament was finally given a date earlier today (December 5th)

-Amiibo wave on Friday

-Age of Sean Hannity releases on Friday

-4 maintenances on Monday, most number of maintenances on a Monday since the Monday before the March indie Direct

-NSO updates have consistently been every two months all year and yet is strangely still MIA.

-Major announcements during the week of Thanksgiving are extremely rare so it's this week or bust for November.

I... Think (?) that's everything for right now.

 

[PK Duststorm]

Thanks for the clarification, Fatman. Although I am aware of Imran Khan's reputation and all, I do wish he had elaborated more on his comments about a delay for Byleth. I skimmed the page and saw a few ideas I could comprehend, such as the release being delayed so the wait between passes could be more manageable.

Tinfoil hat theory discussion of byleth being a last minute replacement of any sort aside, it leaves me unsatisfied. Most of smash development, marketing, and release window information would I'm sure be pure gold to us. Taking into account the circumstances, I'm led to believe Nintendo is banking on AoC making a bigger impact than I expected. The amiibo are having reprints, and the heavy amount of maintenance smells like optimism for Nintendo. Not that a warriors game cant sell, especially one that ties into zelda let alone Botw, but It still hasn't hit me that the traditional BIG holiday title concept has been forced into a different angle this year.

I wont argue that Pikmin 3 is necessarily the holiday title this year. Rather, I propose the marketing team is angling for a shotgun approach with a focus on releases from earlier this year. AoC of course is still being pushed the hardest currently and must be expected to sell gangbusters. Supposedly Pikmin 3 deluxe is a popular second game bought alongside ACNH in japan these last two weeks.


I was all aboard the Mario tourney theories before Steve, but the closer we get the less likely I believe it ties into anything like a character reveal. I'd love to be proven wrong, and have Geno release finally so the chapter can end and the page be turned. Being playable opens up the next chapter for any character legacy. But I firmly believe AoC is to blame for the heavy maintenance.

 

[StarLight42]

There's a lot that started happening on Thursday and this coming week is absolutely stuffed with, er, stuff:

-Champion x Mario sweepstakes launched Thursday (ends next Friday)

-Special Mario 35 event launched Thursday

-Super Mario Game and Watch released Friday

-Mario Tennis Aces tournament was this weekend

-Pokemon Sword and Shield tournament was this weekend

-Zarude Sword and Shield sign up opened on Friday (ends next Friday)

-Special Mario Kart Tour event starts Tuesday

-Special Mario Maker 2 event starts Tuesday

-Mother pop up shop opens Monday (closes December 6th)

-Mario Smash tournament was finally given a date earlier today (December 5th)

-Amiibo wave on Friday

-Age of Sean Hannity releases on Friday

-4 maintenances on Monday, most number of maintenances on a Monday since the Monday before the March indie Direct

-NSO updates have consistently been every two months all year and yet is strangely still MIA.

-Major announcements during the week of Thanksgiving are extremely rare so it's this week or bust for November.

I... Think (?) that's everything for right now.

Mario 3D All Stars Update Tomorrow i think. That adds inverted cameras

 

[GenoDoge]

Mario 3D All Stars Update Tomorrow i think. That adds inverted cameras

I thought it was the 17th?

 

[Paraspikey]

I thought it was the 17th?

Nope, tomorrow.

 

[GenoDoge]

Nope, tomorrow.

So probably at midnight tonight?

 

[StarLight42]

I thought it was the 17th?

Says 16th here

A free software update is coming to #SuperMario3DAllStars on 11/16 that adds a new inverted camera control setting for all three games. pic.twitter.com/06y4IAenCk

— Nintendo of America (@NintendoAmerica) October 27, 2020

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

hype police group.

PFFF FUN?! FUN!?

We mods are strictly responsible for making sure ALL conversations are completely deserving of such a serious subject as a puppet from a children’s role playing game appearing in a children’s party game. We don’t accept FUN HERE!

Any speculation will also not be tolerated. This is STRICTLY a thread for pessimism. QQS is banned for being too happy.

Anyways, how bout that Geno boi?

 

[Izanagi97]

View attachment 291903

It's weird but I'm thankful that the current spat we're having is this. Remember how only a year ago we were dealing with raids, the fallout of Grapevine's first Sabi exposee, and that god-awful mile long deconfirmation list of Sabi and Verge? Two years ago we were dealing with the fallout of the Grinch and most of our energy was being devoted to convince other Geno fans to not just completely give up. If the worst thing we're arguing about right now is whether people are too optimistic about Geno or a major presentation happening sooner than later, we've come a hell of a long way.

Sabi exposé? I forgot what that one was cus I'm mostly only aware of that Google Doc unless that's what you're referring to

 

[Fatmanonice]

Decided to look into it and the odds of all the maintenance being for Age of Calamity is very unlikely. Here are comparisons with the weeks of other major releases this year:

Animal Crossing: New Horizons: https://nintendoeverything.com/nintendo-maintenance-schedule-march-15-2020/

Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition: No maintenance

Paper Mario: the Origami King: No maintenance

Super Mario 3D All Stars: https://nintendoeverything.com/nintendo-maintenance-schedule-september-13-2020/

Pikmin 3 Deluxe: No maintenance

So, going back to a post I made last week, online maintenance is very weakly correlated with new game releases but very strongly correlated with new game announcements.

Add in: my post last week about the correlation between presentations and online maintenance as reference:

Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

and today's posts on NOA's Twitter account continues to have more than Zelda content. How long this will continue is uncertain, but the possibility of seeing something substantial still exists. Just keep your eyes peeled as FP8 could still drop

smashboards.com

 

[NintendoKnight]

PFFF FUN?! FUN!?

We mods are strictly responsible for making sure ALL conversations are completely deserving of such a serious subject as a puppet from a children’s role playing game appearing in a children’s party game. We don’t accept FUN HERE!

Any speculation will also not be tolerated. This is STRICTLY a thread for pessimism. QQS is banned for being too happy.

Anyways, how bout that Geno boi?

Geno's pretty cool. Would be neat if he got in Smash.