Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

[Musubi]

How Confident are you guys in Geno Right at this exact moment?

I'm about 80-90% confident that Geno will be a character. My reasons are:

• Geno's Mii costume is still missing.
• Sakurai has acknowledge how popular of a request he is.
• Ultimate has already added many fan requests.
• It seems almost guaranteed that at least 1 Square Enix character will be in this pass.

There's always the chance that the assumed Square Enix character in the pass is some other character that Square would rather promote and Geno's just a Mii costume, but I don't see that as very likely. And I'm even someone who believes we could get both Geno and Sora in this pass.

 

[GenoDoge]

View attachment 291793
Nintendo has yet to pin the Hyrule Warriors countdown tweet they did for Impa, they've been pinning every countdown tweet until now. I'm already thinking we're getting news this upcoming week, this just adds more to the pile.
View attachment 291794
And yes- they updated the profile picture, this was 99% done on purpose likely because they have something coming up.

Hmmm....interesting.

I'm not getting too excited, they might just finally announce new Switch Online games.

 

[Paraspikey]

Hmmm....interesting.

I'm not getting too excited, they might just finally announce new Switch Online games.

They dont pin those normally.

 

[StarLight42]

“The Game Awards and the Anniversary of the DOOM series are lining up! We still have no release date for DOOM Eternal for the Switch and Sakurai has been acknowledging lots of game anniversaries the past few months... Tinfoil hat Smash Speculation time!!!” (@papagenos

So maybe I think now, Doom in TGA reveal as #78 bringing Cacodemon costume; and Geno a March reveal as #79 bringing back Mallow costume, matching his reveal with his 25° birthday! It all makes sense!

CACOMALLOW IS REAL!

GENO AWAKENS!

View attachment 291788
Artist: DegoDraws on Twitter!

Fatmanonice

No.

This is another extremely silly PapaGenos theory made in order to generate revenue for his account. Man’s gotta pay his bills, I guess.

It means nothing. Geno is very likely to be 78. Doom isn’t likely to be in the pass at all, regardless if a Cacodemon suit shows up or not.

 

[zriL]

I'm about 80-90% confident that Geno will be a character. My reasons are:

• Geno's Mii costume is still missing.
• Sakurai has acknowledge how popular of a request he is.
• Ultimate has already added many fan requests.
• It seems almost guaranteed that at least 1 Square Enix character will be in this pass.

There's always the chance that the assumed Square Enix character in the pass is some other character that Square would rather promote and Geno's just a Mii costume, but I don't see that as very likely. And I'm even someone who believes we could get both Geno and Sora in this pass.

Your reasons don't seem convincing enough to me :

Geno's Mii costume is still missing. => Works better for him joining as mii costume
Sakurai has acknowledge how popular of a request he is. => Also works for him joining as mii costume (that's what happened in smash 4)
Ultimate has already added many fan requests. => 6 ou of 7 DLC characters had very little fan demand, I wouldn't bank on this argument right now (and look at what happened to Travis, whose fan demand was the strongest point)
It seems almost guaranteed that at least 1 Square Enix character will be in this pass. => Also works better for him joining as mii costume since there are a lot of other square enix candidates.

It's weird that you can be confident that Geno will be playable when all your reasons points to him being a mii costume.

 

[Spatulo]

Geno is in

 

[QQS]

Whether all your negativity or pessimism or Pros and Contras, I don’t really care. Whether some refute arguments or say that Geno will be a Costume again, I don’t really care, and I don’t have the time or the proper English to react to that. Though I respect all opinions

On the other hand, I’m not saying that it had to be as #77, or it has to be now as #78 or even #79. It can happen also as a Bonus or even in FP3.

What I conclude about my intuition and the LOT of evidence & coincidence towards Geno, is that somewhere, somehow, sometime, he indeed WILL BE PLAYABLE, whether sooner or later.

Thats all I can say and what I believe. No one would convince me the opposite, until I see, for example, a dead Geno in 3 hypothetical cases: old costume return, new deluxe costume or another Square rep. Until that don’t happen, GENO CHANCES ARE MORE ALIVE AND BRIGHTER THAN EVER.

Best wishes people have a great weekend!

Geno is here, don’t forget it. It’s more clear than water.

(Credit to Artist please!)

 

[Firox]

Your reasons don't seem convincing enough to me :

Geno's Mii costume is still missing. => Works better for him joining as mii costume
Sakurai has acknowledge how popular of a request he is. => Also works for him joining as mii costume (that's what happened in smash 4)
Ultimate has already added many fan requests. => 6 ou of 7 DLC characters had very little fan demand, I wouldn't bank on this argument right now (and look at what happened to Travis, whose fan demand was the strongest point)
It seems almost guaranteed that at least 1 Square Enix character will be in this pass. => Also works better for him joining as mii costume since there are a lot of other square enix candidates.

It's weird that you can be confident that Geno will be playable when all your reasons points to him being a mii costume.

So Geno's Mii costume missing = the mii costume is 100% coming?
Sakurai saying that Geno would fit nicely as a fighter = 0% chance Geno gets in as a fighter?
Laughs at supposedly baseless confidence while projecting your own brand of baseless confidence?

Yeah, your negative bias is showing...and so is your hypocrisy.

 

[Malo Mart]

cacomallow is real

 

[Deleted member]

Your reasons don't seem convincing enough to me :

Geno's Mii costume is still missing. => Works better for him joining as mii costume
Sakurai has acknowledge how popular of a request he is. => Also works for him joining as mii costume (that's what happened in smash 4)
Ultimate has already added many fan requests. => 6 ou of 7 DLC characters had very little fan demand, I wouldn't bank on this argument right now (and look at what happened to Travis, whose fan demand was the strongest point)
It seems almost guaranteed that at least 1 Square Enix character will be in this pass. => Also works better for him joining as mii costume since there are a lot of other square enix candidates.

It's weird that you can be confident that Geno will be playable when all your reasons points to him being a mii costume.

That’s nice dear. Sakurai literally said there is a future there’s even more of them in terms of fan requests. There is nothing stopping that for Ultimate. Travis never even had high levels of demands. There is always a possibility of either way of Geno playable. You don’t decide who is better as a Mii costume if it is still missing.

EDIT: How does all of this suggest that he WILL be costume?

 

[Snoop_nogg]

cacomallow is real

To this day, I still believe CacoMallow is real.

Though I think Mallow would make a better Mii Swordfighter with his Froggie Stick.

 

[Malo Mart]

To this day, I still believe CacoMallow is real.

Though I think Mallow would make a better Mii Swordfighter with his Froggie Stick.

yeah i agree

 

[TheCJBrine]

Your reasons don't seem convincing enough to me :

Geno's Mii costume is still missing. => Works better for him joining as mii costume
Sakurai has acknowledge how popular of a request he is. => Also works for him joining as mii costume (that's what happened in smash 4)
Ultimate has already added many fan requests. => 6 ou of 7 DLC characters had very little fan demand, I wouldn't bank on this argument right now (and look at what happened to Travis, whose fan demand was the strongest point)
It seems almost guaranteed that at least 1 Square Enix character will be in this pass. => Also works better for him joining as mii costume since there are a lot of other square enix candidates.

It's weird that you can be confident that Geno will be playable when all your reasons points to him being a mii costume.

I’m sorry but your points don’t really make any sense; while the evidence isn’t conclusive for him being a fighter, and he could be a mii costume again, none of these point to him being a mii costume moreso than a fighter :S

Your only point that’s reasonable for that is how we haven’t gotten more than 2 highly requested characters (Steve was highly requested outside of this site though I guess his inclusion was moreso for Minecraft being big, but I still wanted to point that out), but that doesn’t mean Geno can’t be another one; it doesn't really point to anything. And yeah, there are other Square Enix characters, but nothing truly points to any being more likely than another.

 

[MattOnwheels]

This is taking too long! I want the Geno NOW!

"PAT, NO!"

 

[Noipoi]

View attachment 291806

This is blatant Bowser erasure.

 

[Musubi]

Your reasons don't seem convincing enough to me :

Geno's Mii costume is still missing. => Works better for him joining as mii costume
Sakurai has acknowledge how popular of a request he is. => Also works for him joining as mii costume (that's what happened in smash 4)
Ultimate has already added many fan requests. => 6 ou of 7 DLC characters had very little fan demand, I wouldn't bank on this argument right now (and look at what happened to Travis, whose fan demand was the strongest point)
It seems almost guaranteed that at least 1 Square Enix character will be in this pass. => Also works better for him joining as mii costume since there are a lot of other square enix candidates.

It's weird that you can be confident that Geno will be playable when all your reasons points to him being a mii costume.

I'm not saying that the things I listed are hard evidence that he's in. Sure he could still become a Mii costume, but just for me, these things make me pretty confident he'll be a fighter in this pass.

As for the fan request point, I wasn't solely talking about DLC. Ridley, Simon, K. Rool, and even Dark Samus and Chrom had tons of fan request. While it's easy to say that Banjo was the only fan requested DLC character, that's basing fan requests only off of people who regularly speculate smash through online forums. There was probably plenty of fan demand for Dragon Quest, Terry, and Minecraft content in Smash, even though those requests were not very prevalent on sites like smashboards and gamefaqs.

 

[T2by4]

Nothing announced today... Is the 16th going to be a big nothingburger.

 

[MattX20]

Nothing announced today... Is the 16th going to be a big nothingburger.

Don't say so until the day has come and gone. We're still a few days away from that

 

[GenoDoge]

They dont pin those normally.

I thought they did...thanks for the info, this actually IS pretty interesing...

 

[Peepo T. Skeleton]

"Nothing's going to happen on the 16th"

Something on the 16th:

I'm personally not sure what, if anything, is going to happen but I'm always gonna be along for the ride.

 

[Mikegamer0608]

I think nothing is really happening in November and a strong possibility we may not get anything at the game awards Remembers last year. A good possibility that we may get something January to start off 2021 and I feel a 3 1/2 month gap between characters would be the best guess.

 

[Enigma735]

Good lord, I have a lot to say for this one.

Your reasons don't seem convincing enough to me :

Geno's Mii costume is still missing. => Works better for him joining as mii costume

We have already established NUMEROUS TIMES that if Geno's outfit was coming back, it would have to come with Hero. Since Cloud in Smash 4, Square Enix Mii Outfits have only ever released alongside Square Enix characters. Its a pattern that is most likely going to continue. Its not like porting the Mii Outfit from Smash 4 over to Ultimate is some impossible task, so how in the hell does it take seven waves of Mii Outfits just to bring back this one outfit? And before you bring up how Lloyd Irving and Monster Hunter's outfits aren't back yet, I for one also think these characters have decent chances as well, so I'm not even making Geno an exception to this or anything.

Sakurai has acknowledge how popular of a request he is. => Also works for him joining as mii costume (that's what happened in smash 4)

Riddle me this, why would Sakurai add Geno's Mii Outfit again when as you said, he's already aware of the fan demand for him? Geno already got his consolation prize in Smash 4 with his Mii Outfit, what's the sense in adding yet another consolation prize when again, Sakurai is aware of the demand? Sakurai has granted the wishes of many fans for Ultimate and whether your detractor-mind wants to believe it or not, Ultimate is the Smash game all about fan-service. It just makes no sense to me for Sakurai to acknowledge and listen to the supporters of Ridley, King K. Rool and Banjo but then be completely tone deaf for the demand for Geno. Sakurai knows we want playable Geno, and even HE wants playable Geno. If Sakurai is going to listen to the support and outcry for Ridley, King K. Rool and Banjo, then chances are he's gonna listen to the support for Geno as well.

Ultimate has already added many fan requests. => 6 ou of 7 DLC characters had very little fan demand, I wouldn't bank on this argument right now (and look at what happened to Travis, whose fan demand was the strongest point)

Maybe, and bear with me on this, fan service actually IS a factor going in to the DLC? You're right, 6 out of the 7 weren't requested, but whatever point you're trying to make completely falls flat when you remember that yeah, one DLC character WAS a fan pick, and one character is all you need to say for yourself that yeah, maybe fan service is a factor for the DLC. You're right, their are other factors that do go in to the DLC as well, for example, characters that heavily advertise something like Hero and Byleth, new characters like Joker, Min Min and Steve, and legacy characters like Terry. But as I said, Banjo is that one big fan request and given Nintendo's shock over Banjo's reception at E3 2019, Nintendo would be absolutely stupid to not capitalize off of yet another fan requested character. And whether you wanna believe it or not, Banjo is a character Nintendo is doing absolutely nothing with, and probably never will. As much as I love Banjo, I will admit myself that Banjo is kind of irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. His last game appearance was over a decade ago, and his last appearance on a Nintendo system was 15 years ago. Banjo was included because of the demand whether you wanna believe it or not and if Banjo can get in as DLC, you better believe Geno can most certainly be a contender for DLC as well.

It seems almost guaranteed that at least 1 Square Enix character will be in this pass. => Also works better for him joining as mii costume since there are a lot of other square enix candidates.

If you actually seen the thread on a daily basis, you would know that not a single person in this thread has EVER denied the fact that other Square characters have shots as well. For example, I think if not Geno, Lara Croft has a somewhat decent chance as well. But this is obviously the Geno thread, a thread where Geno supporters talk about their most wanted character joining the battle. Obviously everyone here is gonna have high hopes for their most wanted character to join the battle. Maybe its because we are actually optimistic about our character? Shocking, I know.

It's weird that you can be confident that Geno will be playable when all your reasons points to him being a mii costume.

Yeah, because god forbid we actually have high hopes for a character we all really wanna see join the battle. How dare we!

End of rant.

 

[StarLight42]

Jeezus christ guys, stop responding to bait posts with paragraphs or even multiple paragraph posts. You wonder why the thread gets raided by trolls and then do this crap.

 

[Enigma735]

Jeezus christ guys, stop responding to bait posts with paragraphs or even multiple paragraph posts. You wonder why the thread gets raided by trolls and then do this crap.

I would stop responding if these trolls didn't raid this thread to begin with.

 

[T2by4]

I would stop responding if these trolls didn't raid this thread to begin with.

Then dont feed the trolls? It's literally one of the first rules of the internet dude.

 

[Enigma735]

Then dont feed the trolls? It's literally one of the first rules of the internet dude.

I don't like feeding in to trolls, but I also posted that out of frustration because I'm tired of the trolls who keep coming here just to kill our hopes and dreams. I like coming to this thread to get away from that stuff and its not fun when we can't even get excited in our own character thread.

 

[Deleted member]

Hey outsiders I’m about to say something very controversial that will make you all hate this thread more than ever.

Spoiler: Warning absolutely horrible

Geno has a chance

 

[Peepo T. Skeleton]

Hey outsiders I’m about to say something very controversial that will make you all hate this thread more than ever.

Spoiler: Warning absolutely horrible

Geno has a chance

Hehehehehe gotem

 

[super88cloud]

Maybe you’re just young, then but for me (and super88cloud i’m assuming) it really does not feel like Ultimate should already be 2 years old. Time ****ing FLIES, but in a disaster of a year like 2020, that’s probably a good thing.
Geno just needs to be in this dang game already.

I swear, I turned 21, and suddenly, time just went from every day being: . . . to . . . . . . .. . . ..........................................
So I´m pretty sure Geno is coming but he´s still gonna be the last one.

 

[zriL]

I'm not saying that the things I listed are hard evidence that he's in. Sure he could still become a Mii costume, but just for me, these things make me pretty confident he'll be a fighter in this pass.

As for the fan request point, I wasn't solely talking about DLC. Ridley, Simon, K. Rool, and even Dark Samus and Chrom had tons of fan request. While it's easy to say that Banjo was the only fan requested DLC character, that's basing fan requests only off of people who regularly speculate smash through online forums. There was probably plenty of fan demand for Dragon Quest, Terry, and Minecraft content in Smash, even though those requests were not very prevalent on sites like smashboards and gamefaqs.

Just answering this one for clarification, but also works for the other answers . I was only pointing the flaws I noticed in your reasoning here. I never denied that Geno had a chance, everyone has a chance anyways. I was only discussing the actual chance here and I was pointing out than most of your reasons work at least as well for a mii costume or a fighter, so the chance can't be more than 50%. I'd say it should be less than 50% because there are 5 times more mii costumes than fighters and it's just easier to get a mii costume overall. In my opinion, you need much more than that to be confident that any character will get in. Right now, I don't think any character has something like that, it's not as obvious as before when Sonic or Pacman were not in the game. There are so many possible candidates that I don't think any character has more than 25% chance to get in. So I'm not hating on Geno here, I just don't think you can be 80% confident for anyone, especially with arguments that work for a mii costume.

As for you fan request point, if I'm understanding correctly, you mean that smashboards and gamefaqs shouldn't be considered as very representative of western fan demand. In that case, it would not be favorable for Geno since this is by far the place where he's most popular.

I also believe there will be one fan demand character in the pass, like for Banjo. But that's only one slot, and that slot usually goes for the most popular fan request. Banjo was the most requested character during that period so he got in, and I believe he had other reasons to get in. Right now, the most requested is Crash, so I don't think they would go for anything other than Crash for that slot, unless they can't get Crash for some reasons.

 

[Griselda]

What I think should be agreed on is that Geno is either coming as a full fighter, or his Mii costume is coming back, or both.. but not neither. It'd be almost deliberately mean-spirited to take him from a fully modeled playable form as a costume to a simple static image as a spirit and call it a day. Not to mention that they probably still have his costume assets, so selling it again would almost amount to free money.

And if it turns out that CacoMallow/Mii list is real but Geno still isn't a fighter, replacing his costume with a Mallow and/or Smithy hat would be a nonsense decision. Y'know, since Geno is the one with the most push behind him.

 

[7NATOR]

I Will just say that No Matter how confident or Unconfident you guys are in Geno, I will just say from an analysis Standpoint, Geno getting in would be a Miracle

There have been Characters added because of Fan Demand, but I think the difference is that every other character on the Roster at least had some other Merit to go along with them, or at least some type Other advantage in their favor

like even with Ridley, K.Rool, and Banjo, All 3 had other things in their favor

-Ridley's Main issue was him being "Too Big" for Smash, and honestly if he didn't have that Problem he would probably have been Playable earlier. Him having major roles in Both Brawl and Smash 4 showcases that he had the merit, he just had an Implementation issue. the Fan Demand was what made him reconsider, but there was other things backing him up

-Banjo Benefits Nintendo and Microsoft's Relationship. Along with that he does bring in a New Franchise that Old School Nintendo Fans, and Rare Replay Players remember. Fan Demand was a big factor here, but there was other stuff that helped Banjo get a DLC Slot

-King K.Rool is probably the Closet Thing to Geno's Case, in that I think He Benefited the most from Fan Demand. Even then He was the main villain of Most of the Donkey Kong Games, even if the Recent ones didn't have him as a Villain, and his last appearance before Ultimate was in 2008


Geno has 3 things

-Huge Smash Fan Requests
-Sakurai's Blessing
-Cool Design and Moveset

But has like everything else stacked against him

-Very Niche to the Casual Crowd, and even to alot Nintendo and Mario Fans as well. He Really only appeals to Smash Fans
-Does not bring a New Franchise, and the Franchise he belongs to Already has 9 Characters
-Has to get in through DLC, Unlike K.Rool and Ridley
-Is a 3rd party, So More Licensing costs Tied to Him
-Square and Nintendo are already very close. There really wouldn't be much Relationship building with Geno now


And His Pros aren't exclusive to him either. There's Been Characters Sakurai has wanted that never ended up in, and probably some he wants that he hasn't talked about. There are many Characters that have Cool design and Moveset, and There are many Requested characters. Even just Talking about Mario, there's Waluigi

And Yet I still think he's a Likely Character in spite of all of the Odds stacked against him, which honestly is Kind of Amazing all things considered. Geno is the character that put all of his Points in 1 Area of Expertise and left the rest alone.

And People also love an Underdog Story as well. People could probably legit make a Whole Documentary about the Story of Geno and Smash if he does make it in as a Character

If that SMRPG Remake is an actual thing then that's something heavily in favor of him though. Even if He's not Playable and the Remake is true, I do think that Remake will do wonders for his Chances next Smash game, Same deal with Isaac and Golden Sun Remake

 

[Deleted member]

I Will just say that No Matter how confident or Unconfident you guys are in Geno, I will just say from an analysis Standpoint, Geno getting in would be a Miracle

There have been Characters added because of Fan Demand, but I think the difference is that every other character on the Roster at least had some other Merit to go along with them, or at least some type Other advantage in their favor

like even with Ridley, K.Rool, and Banjo, All 3 had other things in their favor

-Ridley's Main issue was him being "Too Big" for Smash, and honestly if he didn't have that Problem he would probably have been Playable earlier. Him having major roles in Both Brawl and Smash 4 showcases that he had the merit, he just had an Implementation issue. the Fan Demand was what made him reconsider, but there was other things backing him up

-Banjo Benefits Nintendo and Microsoft's Relationship. Along with that he does bring in a New Franchise that Old School Nintendo Fans, and Rare Replay Players remember. Fan Demand was a big factor here, but there was other stuff that helped Banjo get a DLC Slot

-King K.Rool is probably the Closet Thing to Geno's Case, in that I think He Benefited the most from Fan Demand. Even then He was the main villain of Most of the Donkey Kong Games, even if the Recent ones didn't have him as a Villain, and his last appearance before Ultimate was in 2008


Geno has 3 things

-Huge Smash Fan Requests
-Sakurai's Blessing
-Cool Design and Moveset

But has like everything else stacked against him

-Very Niche to the Casual Crowd, and even to alot Nintendo and Mario Fans as well. He Really only appeals to Smash Fans
-Does not bring a New Franchise, and the Franchise he belongs to Already has 9 Characters
-Has to get in through DLC, Unlike K.Rool and Ridley
-Is a 3rd party, So More Licensing costs Tied to Him
-Square and Nintendo are already very close. There really wouldn't be much Relationship building with Geno now


And His Pros aren't exclusive to him either. There's Been Characters Sakurai has wanted that never ended up in, and probably some he wants that he hasn't talked about. There are many Characters that have Cool design and Moveset, and There are many Requested characters. Even just Talking about Mario, there's Waluigi

And Yet I still think he's a Likely Character in spite of all of the Odds stacked against him, which honestly is Kind of Amazing all things considered. Geno is the character that put all of his Points in 1 Area of Expertise and left the rest alone.

And People also love an Underdog Story as well. People could probably legit make a Whole Documentary about the Story of Geno and Smash if he does make it in as a Character

If that SMRPG Remake is an actual thing then that's something heavily in favor of him though. Even if He's not Playable and the Remake is true, I do think that Remake will do wonders for his Chances next Smash game, Same deal with Isaac and Golden Sun Remake

I think Banjo is the closest thing to Geno’s case. Banjo was a fairly popular character from the N64 era than fell off ever since. The series has sold like over 5 million copies in its like 22 year long history. The fanbase is extremely small compare to Minecraft and Halo to pull in new fans. You’re appealing a VERY small demographic. All the talk about Banjo on social media was ALL nothing but Smash. No Rare Replay Switch and no Banjo Threeie. That’s how much of a disadvantage Banjo had.

Minceraft crossplay was probably the closest Nintendo has ever been with Microsoft. If Nintendo and Square are very close, wouldn’t that be a good thing for Geno that’s it’s one sign that Square could play ball? That was how the Geno costume came along besides fan demand. SMRPG carries the legacy of starting the RPG genre in the Mario franchise and the game that made Square found its audience in North America. Wasn’t that significant? I mean Nintendo acknowledged SMRPG on virtual console and SNES Classic instead of Chrono Trigger.

Also, we got 8 Fire Emblem characters my dude. Nintendo clearly would not care especially with their #1 franchise. I suppose DLC would be a good thing for Geno especially if Nintendo and Square would make profit from all these downloads instead of him already in the base game.

 

[GenoDoge]

Kinda been inactive here lately, but I saw the current discussion and wanted to comment that I'm 99.99% sure that Geno is getting in as a full fighter in Fighter's Pass 2.

 

[ForsakenM]

Your reasons don't seem convincing enough to me :

Geno's Mii costume is still missing. => Works better for him joining as mii costume
Sakurai has acknowledge how popular of a request he is. => Also works for him joining as mii costume (that's what happened in smash 4)
Ultimate has already added many fan requests. => 6 ou of 7 DLC characters had very little fan demand, I wouldn't bank on this argument right now (and look at what happened to Travis, whose fan demand was the strongest point)
It seems almost guaranteed that at least 1 Square Enix character will be in this pass. => Also works better for him joining as mii costume since there are a lot of other square enix candidates.

It's weird that you can be confident that Geno will be playable when all your reasons points to him being a mii costume.

Seems like you may be an irregular to this support thread. While there is a big chance that when you want something, you can fall into confirmation bias, the same is also true when you don't want something to happen, which is literally just wanting something to not happen and thus confirmation bias comes into play. I won't say you are a 'Geno detractor' but since you are referring to needing to be convinced on Geno's chances, it seems you do fall into a group of wanting another character, and since every character is competition for another character due to an eventual end of content it tends to pit people against one another just because of how much they love a character.

Some people in this thread have outright called you a troll, but I think they are jumping the gun a bit here, as I see nothing but a discussion thus far. Unfortunately, there has been a lot of undeserved hate when it comes to the Geno For Smash fandom, and it begets and awful cycle, and right now you are catching the part of the cycle in which Geno fans lash out at people who merely suggest Geno isn't as likely as it appears. This is something that every character who gets a lot of traffic and support goes through, as the Smash community is one of the most toxic after all.

Everything Musubi said here is actually in Geno's favor, though some of these things are in the favor of more than one character. Since my specialty is being wordy and breaking things down in detail, perhaps I can make things a bit more clear as to why they are in his favor. So, if'n you would please...

• The lack of Geno's Mii Costume does nothing to enhance his chances of returning as a Mii Costume. Now, if it were just the fact that it hadn't returned yet was all we had to go on, then I could understand why you would suggest it could just come back later, as there would be no evidence to the contrary.
  
  However, we do have evidence to the contrary, and that evidence is split up into two parts: Prior Opportunity and Prior Negotiations.
  
  The Prior Opportunity portion is that Geno's Costume has already had multiple chances to return, although it realistically only had one due to Square's fickle nature of being the only one in the spotlight. See, when Mii Costume Wave 2 was revealed in Hero's presentation, not only did it have the least amount of costumes of any wave (which still holds true even now) but it had no returning costumes (something no other wave has done still) and it was the perfect opportunity for Geno's costume to return with another Square character...yet here we are. There have been various arguments as to why this is the case in an effort to suggest it doesn't benefit Geno, like how it was meant to focus on Dragon Quest and that Geno's costume would take away from that (despite the fact that Geno's popularity could never compete with Dragon Quest and that they had allowed this to happen before with Cloud's presentation in Smash 4).
  
  The other arguments I often see are that Geno's costume will come with another Square character, or that the only reason it didn't come with Hero was because it hadn't been negotiated for yet, both of which come to the same conclusion that his costume is coming back without him being playable. The Prior Negotiations portion is the fact that PNGs of Geno and Mallow are Spirits, with Geno also being a selectable icon for online modes, and Piranha Plant (which was clearly meant to be in the base roster but wasn't due to time constraints) having mentions to Chewie and Smilax/Megasmilax (who are enemies in SMRPG) all made it to the base game, minus Piranha Plant who came shortly after. This means that all of these things were negotiated with Square for the rights to have in Smash Ultimate in 2018 or earlier, and this is especially important for the Palutena's Guidance as all of the other DLC characters have a generic discussion for them that was recorded ahead of time while Piranha Plant has a unique one for it that mentions characters Square would own the rights to.
  
  The idea here is that if Sakurai & Nintendo had already negotiated for the rights for SMRPG characters for the base game, they obviously would have also gotten the rights for Geno's costume to return, because it would fall under Geno's likeness. Access to these rights don't last forever: they are contractually obligated to end at some point, requiring them to be renewed later on for further use if desired. So if the rights only last for so long, why would you negotiate for them and not have the costume return with another Square rep like Hero and instead wait for two or more years? This would also likely require renewing the rights once more without fully using them (which means more money paid out) while also negotiating for rights for another character. In other words, it make no business sense for Geno's costume to not have returned at this point.
  
  
• Sakurai acknowledging us Geno fans and Geno's popularity when it comes to Smash has nothing to do with him returning as a Mii Costume. What you have done here is suggested that because a certain event played out one way before that it will likely play out that way again, and you have done so without looking into the key factors of that event. Sakurai never added the costume to Smash 4 with the idea that 'This is all you will get.' but rather 'This is the best I can do right now, and I want to give them SOMETHING.' which suggests that Sakurai still desires to make Geno playable in the future and to provide that for us fans. As a friend and I have discussed many times, it comes down to timing and it just not working out. Brawl was an era in which Square couldn't be worked with as easily; Smash 4 was the opportunity to get Cloud; Vol 1 was the opportunity to get Hero.
  
  As long as there is more DLC,his chance remains high, and frankly he has no competition outside of Sora and things aren't really adding up for the accidental giant key wielding teeny-bopper. You may also wish to point out that Sakurai has acknowledged the popularity of other characters, and this is true, however there are very few that he's said he wanted to put in the game since Brawl.
  
  
• The facts are that Ultimate has in fact fulfilled a ton of fan requests, and while it's clear many of those were in the base game, more have come through DLC. Your statement about 6 out of 7 characters not being heavily requested is not only an opinion (not a fact) but it is a very flawed and incorrect one at that. If we are solely looking at characters where it was obvious people were asking for them before they got in, we have Joker, Hero, Banjo and Steve. This means that it's actually only 3 out of 7, and that isn't including characters that were overall well received or counting all the newcomers, so no matter how you slice it Ultimate has been doing insanely well at fulfilling fan requests.
  
  Yes, this favors other characters, but considering that Geno is the most requested Square rep and a huge fan favorite since Brawl (ups and downs duly noted) it favors him a bit more than it does other characters who aren't as popular or requested. Also, Travis really never seemed as popular as people pushed him. I'm not trying to be rude, but Travis always felt like a character people expected rather than wanted, so a bunch of people who didn't really care for him jumped on the bandwagon. There is nothing wrong with that, but I believe it gives a bit of a false perception on how heavily requested he truly was. Then again, he did place 14th on that Mega Smash Poll so perhaps there was much genuine request for him but it was more like Joker where they weren't as loud as others. By contrast though, Geno placed 2nd in that poll, and the gap between 2nd and 14th is rather large. Not that it means all that much overall, but you were making a comparison in your own post, so I figured I'd enlighten you a bit on just how requested Geno is.
  
  
• The high likelihood of Sakurai working with Square again in this pass doesn't say anything about Geno being likely to return as a costume. While I can understand why an outsider would think 'This favors all Square characters' because it technically does, it favors Geno more in the sense that so many other things already put him ahead of the crowd. Remember, Geno is the most-requested Square rep this side of the Keyblade Wars. This means that even if Sephiroth or Crono are favored by this, Geno is still at the front of the line. If a business states that they are working with the school you attend to hire students for a certain field and you happen to be getting a degree in that field, it would of course favor you...but if there is someone in the class with better grades, better attendance and more motivation than you, wouldn't you think they would be more likely to be chosen?
  
  
• You made another post, and in this post you said that 'everyone has a chance' and I just have to correct you: no, not everyone has a chance. There are characters who are not popular enough and therefore haven't been requested enough to be noticed by Sakurai and his team. There are characters that originated outside of video games that will not be considered. There are characters that Sakurai cannot make work into playable for whatever reason that may be. Not every single video game character has a chance to be into Smash, as Sakurai has shown to favor legacy and fan demand, so lacking those hurts a character's chances.
  
  Saying something like this to claim that a specific character's chances are lower is a weak argument, especially when that character fits the bill on every point of consideration. To bring back that business hiring from a school analogy, that would be like the Superintendent saying everyone has a chance to be employed by this company when the school has students in majors that are outside of the company's interest and that the company is looking for certain traits that not all the students in the proper major have. Unfortunately, not everything is equal, and in the case of Smash that means going for characters that will have the most appeal to make the most potential sales. Cookie and Cream from that PS2 game back then don't have the same chances as Crash Bandicoot, and Jazz Jackrabbit doesn't have the same chances that Geno does.
  
  
• In this other post, you also mention that Geno's popularity lies mostly here on Smashboards and maybe on GameFAQs (which actually resoundingly hates Geno btw) but that's actually incorrect. Just because a character isn't commonly talked about on the street when you ask your average person who they want in Smash doesn't mean Geno isn't popular.
  
  I encourage you to look up DLC speculation videos on YouTube just to see who people are talking about, maybe even some Twitch vods. See how many times Geno gets mentioned. Hell, just look up Geno on Youtube and see how many vids people have made about him alone! Now consider that people have written articles about Geno in Smash or topics related to that in which he is mentioned. Now figure that along with Smashboards and GameFAQs, other sites like 4chan and ResetEra talk about him frequently. Take a browse through Twitter to see how hated he is there. In fact, we've kinda gotten to the point where if you talk about Smash character speculation, you've heard of Geno. It's starting to get to the point where people in public have an idea of who you are talking about, though I believe most people will generally think you are speaking about One Punch Man for a little bit longer.
  
  
• I'm not sure why you personally believe there will only be one fan-demanded character in the pass...mostly because Steve was heavily requested and thus by your beliefs there will be no more fan-demanded characters in the pass. However, just looking at the base game having so many and how Vol 1 had multiple, add this in with what I just said and it kinda destroys this idea you have of getting only one. If anything, we are likely to get more than we have before due to having an additional character in the pass.
  
  As for Crash getting in, I believe he is essentially a lock, but I also believe the same for Geno. As a reminder, that Mega Smash Poll had Crash in 1st and Geno in 2nd, meaning that Geno is actually around Crash's level of being requested all things considered. In that same poll, Steve and Alex got 7th, and look who got in.

Hopefully this gives you a better idea on why your points didn't really stick like you thought they would and more of an insight into how big a deal Geno has really become over the course of a couple decades.

As for 7NATOR I haven't decided whether or not I'll respond to that list or not. I'll have to factor in what time I have today now that I'm back home in Texas, still got stuff to move and a job to find, but unless you kinda get barraged by a couple more claims on the level that @Armadillo5_42 provided I'm sure I can find a bit of time for a counter-post.

 

[Aerospherology]

View attachment 291793
Nintendo has yet to pin the Hyrule Warriors countdown tweet they did for Impa, they've been pinning every countdown tweet until now. I'm already thinking we're getting news this upcoming week, this just adds more to the pile.
View attachment 291794
And yes- they updated the profile picture, this was 99% done on purpose likely because they have something coming up.

Still has not been pinned and other tweets are drowning it out.

 

[SpiritOfRuin]

I Will just say that No Matter how confident or Unconfident you guys are in Geno, I will just say from an analysis Standpoint, Geno getting in would be a Miracle

There have been Characters added because of Fan Demand, but I think the difference is that every other character on the Roster at least had some other Merit to go along with them, or at least some type Other advantage in their favor

like even with Ridley, K.Rool, and Banjo, All 3 had other things in their favor

-Ridley's Main issue was him being "Too Big" for Smash, and honestly if he didn't have that Problem he would probably have been Playable earlier. Him having major roles in Both Brawl and Smash 4 showcases that he had the merit, he just had an Implementation issue. the Fan Demand was what made him reconsider, but there was other things backing him up

-Banjo Benefits Nintendo and Microsoft's Relationship. Along with that he does bring in a New Franchise that Old School Nintendo Fans, and Rare Replay Players remember. Fan Demand was a big factor here, but there was other stuff that helped Banjo get a DLC Slot

-King K.Rool is probably the Closet Thing to Geno's Case, in that I think He Benefited the most from Fan Demand. Even then He was the main villain of Most of the Donkey Kong Games, even if the Recent ones didn't have him as a Villain, and his last appearance before Ultimate was in 2008


Geno has 3 things

-Huge Smash Fan Requests
-Sakurai's Blessing
-Cool Design and Moveset

But has like everything else stacked against him

-Very Niche to the Casual Crowd, and even to alot Nintendo and Mario Fans as well. He Really only appeals to Smash Fans
-Does not bring a New Franchise, and the Franchise he belongs to Already has 9 Characters
-Has to get in through DLC, Unlike K.Rool and Ridley
-Is a 3rd party, So More Licensing costs Tied to Him
-Square and Nintendo are already very close. There really wouldn't be much Relationship building with Geno now


And His Pros aren't exclusive to him either. There's Been Characters Sakurai has wanted that never ended up in, and probably some he wants that he hasn't talked about. There are many Characters that have Cool design and Moveset, and There are many Requested characters. Even just Talking about Mario, there's Waluigi

And Yet I still think he's a Likely Character in spite of all of the Odds stacked against him, which honestly is Kind of Amazing all things considered. Geno is the character that put all of his Points in 1 Area of Expertise and left the rest alone.

And People also love an Underdog Story as well. People could probably legit make a Whole Documentary about the Story of Geno and Smash if he does make it in as a Character

If that SMRPG Remake is an actual thing then that's something heavily in favor of him though. Even if He's not Playable and the Remake is true, I do think that Remake will do wonders for his Chances next Smash game, Same deal with Isaac and Golden Sun Remake

This is kinda the same boat I'm in. A lot of the evidence pointing to Geno is so circumstantial that's it's hard for me to accept that it's cumulative force could really be enough to push Geno into playable territory. Prior to Heihachi returning as a mii costume, my confidence in Geno was 99% once I saw Heihachi though my confidence drastically shrunk because if they'd wait for him then surely they could do the same to Geno. Now my confidence is about 50.01% if I'm being honest. So many of the points in Geno's favor can easily be turned against him and the character choices Nintendo has made for DLC so far are...questionable. 50% may not seem high but my estimates for other characters are considerably lower generally speaking. Geno is truly a marvel in speculation. If he makes it in he will be in this unique bracket of fan demanded characters because his fan demand and circumstances are simply different than other characters. It really is incredible that he's still a contender for playable character despite all the odds stacked against him.

In a way Nintendo's tendency to pick characters who have had a lot odds stacked against them (Joker - little presence on Nintendo consoles, not much time to build fan demand within Smash; Banjo - competitor, irrelevant; Hero - rights issues, SE seemed difficult to work with based on difficulty getting Cloud; Terry - not much demand to speak of, competition with other big fighting game icons; Byleth - poor past precedent, timing; Min Min - not really a main character, programming difficulty, spirits; Steve - competition, biggest game, programming difficulty) almost make Geno seem like he will be just fine. At the end of the day, it's anyone's guess who Nintendo will pick unfortunately and there are signs that they could choose either playable or costume destiny for Geno but I chose to believe that he will make it because I'd rather be hopeful and be wrong than hopeless and be right.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

-Very Niche to the Casual Crowd, and even to alot Nintendo and Mario Fans as well. He Really only appeals to Smash Fans
-Does not bring a New Franchise, and the Franchise he belongs to Already has 9 Characters
-Has to get in through DLC, Unlike K.Rool and Ridley
-Is a 3rd party, So More Licensing costs Tied to Him
-Square and Nintendo are already very close. There really wouldn't be much Relationship building with Geno no

Don't forget other Square competition like another Final Fantasy character, Lara Croft, 2B, Neku, and Sora.

 

[7NATOR]

I think Banjo is the closest thing to Geno’s case. Banjo was a fairly popular character from the N64 era than fell off ever since. The series has sold like over 5 million copies in its like 22 year long history. The fanbase is extremely small compare to Minecraft and Halo to pull in new fans. You’re appealing a VERY small demographic. All the talk about Banjo on social media was ALL nothing but Smash. No Rare Replay Switch and no Banjo Threeie. That’s how much of a disadvantage Banjo had.

Minceraft crossplay was probably the closest Nintendo has ever been with Microsoft. If Nintendo and Square are very close, wouldn’t that be a good thing for Geno that’s it’s one sign that Square could play ball? That was how the Geno costume came along besides fan demand. SMRPG carries the legacy of starting the RPG genre in the Mario franchise and the game that made Square found its audience in North America. Wasn’t that significant? I mean Nintendo acknowledged SMRPG on virtual console and SNES Classic instead of Chrono Trigger.

Also, we got 8 Fire Emblem characters my dude. Nintendo clearly would not care especially with their #1 franchise. I suppose DLC would be a good thing for Geno especially if Nintendo and Square would make profit from all these downloads instead of him already in the base game.

Square and Nintendo's Good Relationship is good for Easier Access to Geno, especially since Geno is already in the game as a Spirit, and was in smash 4 as a Console

However There's no inherit Gain in relationship with 3rd parties like it would be with something like Banjo/Steve being in Smash and stuff. this also doesn't affect Geno, I would say the Same thing for Ryu Hayabusa

As for Banjo, In comparison to Minecraft and Halo, no way it compares in Audiences to those Two. However Banjo I would say is made to appeal to Nintendo fans of Old. It was a Big Game on N64 after all, the OG and the Sequel.

I guess Geno could appeal to Old School Nintendo Fans as well. SMRPG did do well in Sales after all. It also did start the Mario RPG Series and I believe was Good amount of People's First RPG

I guess my issue is that Geno is More Smash Specific in terms of Audience than Any other character. Like even with him being a Mario character, I don't think a Majority of the Mario Fanbase really knows who Geno is, unless they are heavy in Smash speculation and Asking for Characters. I'm not even sure how much of the Nintendo Fanbase know about Geno at all.

Geno isn't as Front and Center even compared to Banjo. Geno does have a major role in SMRPG, but Considering that is his Only appearance and he's not even on the Boxart or anything, It's something to Consider about his Appeal even to Mario and Nintendo Fans.

I do think That I Might not be giving Geno enough credit Though. Smash Speculation does have alot of Fans after all, and SMRPG has been released on Wii Virtual Console and SNES classic, So Perhaps Geno Appeal might Stretch further Than What I'm thinking.


Also One thing I was also thinking about is that Perhaps Geno, even as a 3rd Party, Might be easier to get than even we Realize. I Believe alot of the Trouble when it comes to 3rd party is Making the Character correctly to the Owners liking. That's why there are restrictions like Sonic only having Shade of Blue or such like that. These characters have Mandates

But Because Square really doesn't use Geno at all, and Honestly since he's really only had one Appearance, I think Geno as a Character might be more Freeform character to interpret in Smash than any other 3rd party character, or hell even Some First Party Characters

 

[Fatmanonice]

For absolutely nothing to happen next week, it would be only the second time this year that a multiple maintenance week resulted in nothing, technically the only month all year where something major wasn't announced, and the first time in 9 years that Nintendo hasn't had a major announcement in November. As I pointed out Thursday, there's a ton scheduled for this coming week too and it's very strange because Nintendo rarely crams a ton of events into a single week. Historically, they almost only ever do this for the week of E3 so that's yet another reason why I'm suspicious of this coming week.