Enigma735
Smash Lord
CannonStreak
pm'd me and he wanted me to tell you all he's leaving the thread. He told me that he is tired of everyone overhyping themselves and he doesn't wanna be apart of that anymore.
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I don't really get this concept because nothing bad has happened as a result. Some people have wound up disappointed, I guess, but it's weird to me that there's been multiple cases of people announcing their departure with the dire seriousness of a job resignation. This isn't the Manhattan Project and I've noticed that any complaining of things not panning out has overwhelmingly stuck to this thread so it's not like the Smash speculation equivalent of Chernobyl either.CannonStreak pm'd me and he wanted me to tell you all he's leaving the thread. He told me that he is tired of everyone overhyping themselves and he doesn't wanna be apart of that anymore.
People take getting disappointed to a unneeded extreme, like they'll die if they get disappointed.I don't really get this concept because nothing bad has happened as a result. Some people have wound up disappointed, I guess, but it's weird to me that there's been multiple cases of people announcing their departure with the dire seriousness of a job resignation. This isn't the Manhattan Project and I've noticed that any complaining of things not panning out has overwhelmingly stuck to this thread so it's not like the Smash speculation equivalent of Chernobyl either.
idk about another FF character when not even Sonic has one. Idk about Neku either since there isn't much going for them aside from a couple fake 4chan posts. And TWEWY is kind of niche unfortunately so it certainly wouldn't be high on Nintendo's list to add and since Square are probably gonna be able to pick a more profitable character in the long run. Yes the same could be said for Geno, but since he is in a very similar situation to BK whom were added. And obviously I do note there are differences. And 2B was thrown into a lot of question when apparently some convention in December was the first time Sakurai met Yoko Taro which was obviously after the DLC was chosen. It isn't really an NDA thing either since it wasn't due to a question being asked since it's something one of them brought up. Sora is Disney so that's a different beast and the only one I can agree with is Lara Croft but I'm kind of surprised she has lacks as much discussionDon't forget other Square competition like another Final Fantasy character, Lara Croft, 2B, Neku, and Sora.
Not to mention I'm not a fan of the "hand grenade" approach. The number of times I've seen the equivalent of "the optimism in this thread is causing me mental distress" this year is really something else. If people need a break then take a break. Lashing out at people who are optimistic as if it's genuinely ethically or morally wrong is a big reason why we get into these dumb spats every couple of months. There's nothing "sinister" going on here. It's not like there's going to be an assassination attempt on Sakurai if Geno doesn't happen and yet, for the last two years, there's been this unironic belief that Geno fans are going to snap and cause real world problems if they don't get their way. With all the real world **** going on right now, can we please be spared this?People take getting disappointed to a unneeded extreme, like they'll die if they get disappointed.
I always think something like "Who cares if nothing happens? That's why we speculate anyways, to see if something happens or not"
If people want to avoid disappointment why speculate in the first place? Disappointment is going to be one result out of many for speculation, it's really not that big of a deal to me and is something we should honestly always have in our minds as a possibility.
Good lord this. There's nothing wrong with some occasional optimism.Not to mention I'm not a fan of the "hand grenade" approach. The number of times I've seen the equivalent of "the optimism in this thread is causing me mental distress" this year is really something else. If people need a break then take a break. Lashing out at people who are optimistic as if it's genuinely ethically or morally wrong is a big reason why we get into these dumb spats every couple of months. There's nothing "sinister" going on here. It's not like there's going to be an assassination attempt on Sakurai if Geno doesn't happen and yet, for the last two years, there's been this unironic belief that Geno fans are going to snap and cause real world problems if they don't get their way. With all the real world **** going on right now, can we please be spared this?
Nothing wrong with optimism in the video game industry, period.Good lord this. There's nothing wrong with some occasional optimism.
Nobody is blindly being optimistic, and even if people are, why would that be a bad thing?Just so you all know, as this is all I have to say...
It is not the optimism I am disliking, it is what it will potentially lead to. I am not fearing anything, I just expect the outcome I am predicting to happen. There is no way around it with people likely setting themselves up for disappointment.
And it is okay to be optimistic, but being too optimistic, blindly, is not okay.
That is all I have to say.
I don't think anyone cares, just please leave if you're going to start a whole scene over your beliefs on Nintendo Speculation Optimism like you already said you would do.I might be on this for a bit longer now, but...
This has nothing to do with doing criminal stuff or protests, or crusades of anyone. Still, I have seen many predict Geno many times, and have been wrong. Sure, not much bad has happened, but what about when Geno really gets disconfirmed, or is not a fighter as any DLC? Just because something big did not happen, doesn't mean it won't.
Do what you want to do, guys. I know disappointment and rage is inevitable. I just don't wish to be part of it,
Could it be?! Could we be fast approaching the equivalent to what would have been the E3 2020 Nintendo Direct's last fifteen (15) minutes?!For absolutely nothing to happen next week, it would be only the second time this year that a multiple maintenance week resulted in nothing, technically the only month all year where something major wasn't announced, and the first time in 9 years that Nintendo hasn't had a major announcement in November. As I pointed out Thursday, there's a ton scheduled for this coming week too and it's very strange because Nintendo rarely crams a ton of events into a single week. Historically, they almost only ever do this for the week of E3 so that's yet another reason why I'm suspicious of this coming week.
You're legit yelling at people in profiles about them and saying it's not about mass suicides or something.First, I don't believe you know much about my beliefs. Second, I was not trying to start a scene, This started by being brought up by someone else. I just wanted to make a few corrections. That is all.
And I wasn't trying to help anyone, or yelling. I was calm all the way.You're legit yelling at people in profiles about them and saying it's not about mass suicides or something.
Just leave man, you aren't helping anyone here.
QQS is a good dude and he clearly means well. I always appreciate the optimism he brings even if others don't.Also, I'm just going to say it... I'm reeeeeeeally tired of people dragging QQS . He's a happy and optimistic guy yet I have had like half a dozen people tell me that he unironically scares them. I don't even think the dude has gotten angry once or said a single mean thing to anyone and yet I keep having people pull my shirt sleeves about him as if he's secretly an enormous liability to the whole fanbase. Maybe part of the reason he comes off as super happy is that English isn't his first language (he's from Chile) and this is simply how he expresses himself so he can be understood here? I mean, ****... Pretty sure some people would be reduced to a squirming mess if I totally unpacked the reasons for him getting singled out but I'm not sure some of you are ready to have that conversation yet.
And I wasn't trying to help anyone, or yelling. I was calm all the way.
Just wanted to say that the list I made has more to it it than what's said at face value. Thankfully, ForsakenM took the time to explain how each point has more to it on the previous page. Also, each point individually may not specifically give Geno the best chances to get in, but it's those points as a collective which make me confident in his chances. If I'm being honest, my confidence in Geno is probably a little higher due to my bias of him being my most wanted character in Smash.Just answering this one for clarification, but also works for the other answers . I was only pointing the flaws I noticed in your reasoning here. I never denied that Geno had a chance, everyone has a chance anyways. I was only discussing the actual chance here and I was pointing out than most of your reasons work at least as well for a mii costume or a fighter, so the chance can't be more than 50%. I'd say it should be less than 50% because there are 5 times more mii costumes than fighters and it's just easier to get a mii costume overall. In my opinion, you need much more than that to be confident that any character will get in. Right now, I don't think any character has something like that, it's not as obvious as before when Sonic or Pacman were not in the game. There are so many possible candidates that I don't think any character has more than 25% chance to get in. So I'm not hating on Geno here, I just don't think you can be 80% confident for anyone, especially with arguments that work for a mii costume.
As for you fan request point, if I'm understanding correctly, you mean that smashboards and gamefaqs shouldn't be considered as very representative of western fan demand. In that case, it would not be favorable for Geno since this is by far the place where he's most popular.
I also believe there will be one fan demand character in the pass, like for Banjo. But that's only one slot, and that slot usually goes for the most popular fan request. Banjo was the most requested character during that period so he got in, and I believe he had other reasons to get in. Right now, the most requested is Crash, so I don't think they would go for anything other than Crash for that slot, unless they can't get Crash for some reasons.
Seems like you may be an irregular to this support thread. While there is a big chance that when you want something, you can fall into confirmation bias, the same is also true when you don't want something to happen, which is literally just wanting something to not happen and thus confirmation bias comes into play. I won't say you are a 'Geno detractor' but since you are referring to needing to be convinced on Geno's chances, it seems you do fall into a group of wanting another character, and since every character is competition for another character due to an eventual end of content it tends to pit people against one another just because of how much they love a character.
Some people in this thread have outright called you a troll, but I think they are jumping the gun a bit here, as I see nothing but a discussion thus far. Unfortunately, there has been a lot of undeserved hate when it comes to the Geno For Smash fandom, and it begets and awful cycle, and right now you are catching the part of the cycle in which Geno fans lash out at people who merely suggest Geno isn't as likely as it appears. This is something that every character who gets a lot of traffic and support goes through, as the Smash community is one of the most toxic after all.
Everything Musubi said here is actually in Geno's favor, though some of these things are in the favor of more than one character. Since my specialty is being wordy and breaking things down in detail, perhaps I can make things a bit more clear as to why they are in his favor. So, if'n you would please...
The lack of Geno's Mii Costume does nothing to enhance his chances of returning as a Mii Costume. Now, if it were just the fact that it hadn't returned yet was all we had to go on, then I could understand why you would suggest it could just come back later, as there would be no evidence to the contrary.
However, we do have evidence to the contrary, and that evidence is split up into two parts: Prior Opportunity and Prior Negotiations.
The Prior Opportunity portion is that Geno's Costume has already had multiple chances to return, although it realistically only had one due to Square's fickle nature of being the only one in the spotlight. See, when Mii Costume Wave 2 was revealed in Hero's presentation, not only did it have the least amount of costumes of any wave (which still holds true even now) but it had no returning costumes (something no other wave has done still) and it was the perfect opportunity for Geno's costume to return with another Square character...yet here we are. There have been various arguments as to why this is the case in an effort to suggest it doesn't benefit Geno, like how it was meant to focus on Dragon Quest and that Geno's costume would take away from that (despite the fact that Geno's popularity could never compete with Dragon Quest and that they had allowed this to happen before with Cloud's presentation in Smash 4).
The other arguments I often see are that Geno's costume will come with another Square character, or that the only reason it didn't come with Hero was because it hadn't been negotiated for yet, both of which come to the same conclusion that his costume is coming back without him being playable. The Prior Negotiations portion is the fact that PNGs of Geno and Mallow are Spirits, with Geno also being a selectable icon for online modes, and Piranha Plant (which was clearly meant to be in the base roster but wasn't due to time constraints) having mentions to Chewie and Smilax/Megasmilax (who are enemies in SMRPG) all made it to the base game, minus Piranha Plant who came shortly after. This means that all of these things were negotiated with Square for the rights to have in Smash Ultimate in 2018 or earlier, and this is especially important for the Palutena's Guidance as all of the other DLC characters have a generic discussion for them that was recorded ahead of time while Piranha Plant has a unique one for it that mentions characters Square would own the rights to.
The idea here is that if Sakurai & Nintendo had already negotiated for the rights for SMRPG characters for the base game, they obviously would have also gotten the rights for Geno's costume to return, because it would fall under Geno's likeness. Access to these rights don't last forever: they are contractually obligated to end at some point, requiring them to be renewed later on for further use if desired. So if the rights only last for so long, why would you negotiate for them and not have the costume return with another Square rep like Hero and instead wait for two or more years? This would also likely require renewing the rights once more without fully using them (which means more money paid out) while also negotiating for rights for another character. In other words, it make no business sense for Geno's costume to not have returned at this point.
Sakurai acknowledging us Geno fans and Geno's popularity when it comes to Smash has nothing to do with him returning as a Mii Costume. What you have done here is suggested that because a certain event played out one way before that it will likely play out that way again, and you have done so without looking into the key factors of that event. Sakurai never added the costume to Smash 4 with the idea that 'This is all you will get.' but rather 'This is the best I can do right now, and I want to give them SOMETHING.' which suggests that Sakurai still desires to make Geno playable in the future and to provide that for us fans. As a friend and I have discussed many times, it comes down to timing and it just not working out. Brawl was an era in which Square couldn't be worked with as easily; Smash 4 was the opportunity to get Cloud; Vol 1 was the opportunity to get Hero.
As long as there is more DLC,his chance remains high, and frankly he has no competition outside of Sora and things aren't really adding up for the accidental giant key wielding teeny-bopper. You may also wish to point out that Sakurai has acknowledged the popularity of other characters, and this is true, however there are very few that he's said he wanted to put in the game since Brawl.
The facts are that Ultimate has in fact fulfilled a ton of fan requests, and while it's clear many of those were in the base game, more have come through DLC. Your statement about 6 out of 7 characters not being heavily requested is not only an opinion (not a fact) but it is a very flawed and incorrect one at that. If we are solely looking at characters where it was obvious people were asking for them before they got in, we have Joker, Hero, Banjo and Steve. This means that it's actually only 3 out of 7, and that isn't including characters that were overall well received or counting all the newcomers, so no matter how you slice it Ultimate has been doing insanely well at fulfilling fan requests.
Yes, this favors other characters, but considering that Geno is the most requested Square rep and a huge fan favorite since Brawl (ups and downs duly noted) it favors him a bit more than it does other characters who aren't as popular or requested. Also, Travis really never seemed as popular as people pushed him. I'm not trying to be rude, but Travis always felt like a character people expected rather than wanted, so a bunch of people who didn't really care for him jumped on the bandwagon. There is nothing wrong with that, but I believe it gives a bit of a false perception on how heavily requested he truly was. Then again, he did place 14th on that Mega Smash Poll so perhaps there was much genuine request for him but it was more like Joker where they weren't as loud as others. By contrast though, Geno placed 2nd in that poll, and the gap between 2nd and 14th is rather large. Not that it means all that much overall, but you were making a comparison in your own post, so I figured I'd enlighten you a bit on just how requested Geno is.
The high likelihood of Sakurai working with Square again in this pass doesn't say anything about Geno being likely to return as a costume. While I can understand why an outsider would think 'This favors all Square characters' because it technically does, it favors Geno more in the sense that so many other things already put him ahead of the crowd. Remember, Geno is the most-requested Square rep this side of the Keyblade Wars. This means that even if Sephiroth or Crono are favored by this, Geno is still at the front of the line. If a business states that they are working with the school you attend to hire students for a certain field and you happen to be getting a degree in that field, it would of course favor you...but if there is someone in the class with better grades, better attendance and more motivation than you, wouldn't you think they would be more likely to be chosen?
You made another post, and in this post you said that 'everyone has a chance' and I just have to correct you: no, not everyone has a chance. There are characters who are not popular enough and therefore haven't been requested enough to be noticed by Sakurai and his team. There are characters that originated outside of video games that will not be considered. There are characters that Sakurai cannot make work into playable for whatever reason that may be. Not every single video game character has a chance to be into Smash, as Sakurai has shown to favor legacy and fan demand, so lacking those hurts a character's chances.
Saying something like this to claim that a specific character's chances are lower is a weak argument, especially when that character fits the bill on every point of consideration. To bring back that business hiring from a school analogy, that would be like the Superintendent saying everyone has a chance to be employed by this company when the school has students in majors that are outside of the company's interest and that the company is looking for certain traits that not all the students in the proper major have. Unfortunately, not everything is equal, and in the case of Smash that means going for characters that will have the most appeal to make the most potential sales. Cookie and Cream from that PS2 game back then don't have the same chances as Crash Bandicoot, and Jazz Jackrabbit doesn't have the same chances that Geno does.
In this other post, you also mention that Geno's popularity lies mostly here on Smashboards and maybe on GameFAQs (which actually resoundingly hates Geno btw) but that's actually incorrect. Just because a character isn't commonly talked about on the street when you ask your average person who they want in Smash doesn't mean Geno isn't popular.
I encourage you to look up DLC speculation videos on YouTube just to see who people are talking about, maybe even some Twitch vods. See how many times Geno gets mentioned. Hell, just look up Geno on Youtube and see how many vids people have made about him alone! Now consider that people have written articles about Geno in Smash or topics related to that in which he is mentioned. Now figure that along with Smashboards and GameFAQs, other sites like 4chan and ResetEra talk about him frequently. Take a browse through Twitter to see how hated he is there. In fact, we've kinda gotten to the point where if you talk about Smash character speculation, you've heard of Geno. It's starting to get to the point where people in public have an idea of who you are talking about, though I believe most people will generally think you are speaking about One Punch Man for a little bit longer.
I'm not sure why you personally believe there will only be one fan-demanded character in the pass...mostly because Steve was heavily requested and thus by your beliefs there will be no more fan-demanded characters in the pass. However, just looking at the base game having so many and how Vol 1 had multiple, add this in with what I just said and it kinda destroys this idea you have of getting only one. If anything, we are likely to get more than we have before due to having an additional character in the pass.
As for Crash getting in, I believe he is essentially a lock, but I also believe the same for Geno. As a reminder, that Mega Smash Poll had Crash in 1st and Geno in 2nd, meaning that Geno is actually around Crash's level of being requested all things considered. In that same poll, Steve and Alex got 7th, and look who got in.
Hopefully this gives you a better idea on why your points didn't really stick like you thought they would and more of an insight into how big a deal Geno has really become over the course of a couple decades.
As for @7NATOR I haven't decided whether or not I'll respond to that list or not. I'll have to factor in what time I have today now that I'm back home in Texas, still got stuff to move and a job to find, but unless you kinda get barraged by a couple more claims on the level that @Armadillo5_42 provided I'm sure I can find a bit of time for a counter-post.
The fact people are scared of QQS makes me sad, it's really scary that people really think like this.Also, **** it, I'm ready to make some people deeply uncomfortable. Me, KCChief, and Forsaken, three American midwestern white guys, have all been temp banned at some point in the last year for angry outbursts but QQS, the dude from Chile (who outright says that he's from Chile in a good number of his posts) that regularly expresses good will to everyone is the one that people have openly expressed being afraid of. Anyone else see the glaring problem with that? Anyone else see the problem with unironically calling the most docile poster here the potentially most dangerous? Isn't really something else that of all the angry outbursts that have happened in the past year, there was no overarching consequences and that the most "angry" among us eventually worked through their emotions, that the most "threatening" didn't amount to any real threat? So, if the most angry worked things out themselves and people are afraid of the most placid members of the thread, where does the real problem lie?
Beyond this, it just repeatedly suggests that we don't have the emotional regulation or intelligence to deal with disappointment. People get upset. People get sad. Whatever. Aside from Wynn who got so out of hand that he was banned from the site, I don't think there's been anyone in these last two and a half years that wound up being a real problem because of their emotions. Star has had his moments. Serenade has had his moments. Optimistic Strifer has had his moments. All eventually processed everything and have been welcomed back. ****, it's actually common practice here for people to take a mental health break including among "angry" users like KCChief and Forsaken. Some people like Ovaltine have excused themselves from this site because they didn't want to be constantly fighting. Hell, remember when there was like 800 people watching this thread after Steve was 77 and wringing their hands waiting for a total freakout that never happened outside of a handful of angry posts? It kind of reminds me how there was so much insistence for MONTHS that the Joker movie was going to cause a huge uptick in theater shootings but then nothing happened (aside from winning some Academy Awards). Still, the myth of the totally unhinged Geno mob was old back in 2018 and it's still old now.The fact people are scared of QQS makes me just sad how some people can think so stupidly. What is scary is the fact people think like that
I know I flipped over a few desks and set them on fire, but then again, that's a normal Thursday.Oh no, disappointment... As if this WHOLE year hasn't been a rolling case of that. Remember how I predicted Geno was going to be 76 or 77 starting the fall of 2019 and how that didn't pan out? Where are the casualties that people warned us would happen? Where is the widespread chaos? You had like... 3 people who were grumpy for a few weeks and a couple of people who took a break but later came back. Where were the hostage situations after 7 Theory didn't work out? Where were the mass protests when nothing SMRPG happened in the Mario Direct? We keep being told over and over again that the Geno fanbase is going to snap and blood will literally jettison from our eyes and ears if Geno doesn't pan out and yet each disappointing event hasn't resulted in the apocalyptic meltdown that we keep being told will happen. We keep getting indignant about being told we have the mental fortitude of preteens and the whole fanbase is a ticking time-bonb and yet we have yet to see these entrail splattered fits of rage we keep being told will absolutely happen because...?