Not to get too deep into the Monster Hunter stuff but Imran Khan brought up a good point the other day... Monster Hunter has the biggest presence of any third party franchise that didn't have a playable character by a considerable margin. It technically has a stage, it has two music tracks, an assist trophy that doubles as a boss, and literally an entire section of the overworld Adventure map dedicated to it. Monster Hunter has more representation in Smash than Final Fantasy (which is kind of hilarious). Keep in mind that Capcom was involved in the base game in a huge way. Street Fighter and Megaman have an absurd amount of content including three characters and three assist trophies. Obviously a lot of thought went into all this and I don't think Capcom was sitting around on December 5th, 2018 and thinking "OH ****, WE FORGOT A MONSTER HUNTER REP, YOU GUYS"; I think the amount of content that MH got in the base game was very intentional and I don't think a rep was ever in the cards because Nintendo was obviously balls deep when it came to Capcom stuff in base and I don't think it "slipped their mind."
Again, the entire argument is that MH has enough push in Japan to justify a rep. It's not like MH in Smash requests died right after Rathalos was shown off, because it didn't. Ask anyone that is seriously deep into the Japanese side of speculation, and they'll say that a Monster Hunter character has been very requested since then (probably in the top 5/top 3) consistently, and undoubtedly number 1 or number 2 since Fighters Pass 2 started in terms of how much discussion gets (Pre-Rise even).
Even then, if we consider MH represented, it still has very low representation compared to most series that got added as full blown fighters. It rivals Cloud honestly. All it has is a AT that also serves as a boss, an MH-like stage; but not a true Monster Hunter stage, and 2 tracks, which is tied with Cloud for the worst amount of tracks for a 3rd party (if we consider Rathalos to be a full blown rep, on the level of Cloud).
Again if we are arguing that base game content is enough for them to reconsider adding a fighter into Smash; why wouldn't it be different from the likes of Geno? Nintendo clearly negotiated for both Geno and Mallow as spirits, and they also had to negotiate for a Geno profile icon in Arena as well. They didn't negotiate for Mallow's icon, just Geno's in particular. They added Rathalos as an icon, but not a generic Hunter. And unlike those two characters/series, there is no Lloyd icon.
If we use the idea that certain base game content will not get promoted to full blown character, just because "they negotiated for more than the bare minimum, of them in base"; then Lloyd has a VERY good shot and Geno/Monster Hunter are practically deconfirmed; unlike Geno/Monster Hunter they didn't give Lloyd any "compensation" he has 0 content in the base game. Rathalos/Geno both have spirits and icons; icons in particular are something lacked by ALL DLC so far, even Min Min didn't have her own in base.
The argument I just made is stupid on purpose. Suggesting they lock out characters, because they "got more than bare minimum" in base game is pretty stupid. For all we know, this pass will contain Waluigi and Isaac as fighters; because we are past the point of "what was originally planned" for Ultimate now.
This, though I think it's more likely that a rep was originally intended, but ultimately scrapped during development.
I can buy this. I'm not suggesting MH is in this pass, **** if you think that just look at what I've posted in the newcomer thread recently. Do I think MH is possible? Sure.
I'm just saying that more than minimum content in base game is one of the stupid arguments out there, for ignoring potential characters. We can still get AT promotes, Mii costume promotes, spirit promotes and everything; there are no hard rules other than fan-rules.