My last post seemed to bring up some decent discussion, so let me elaborate further on my thoughts.
Min Min is our Byleth because, obviously, this is our 1st party character used to bring more attention to a Nintendo series/a promotional pick.
Comparing Steve to Joker might seem weird, but I think the comparison is somewhat fitting because both are pretty unexpected third parties who seemed largely unlikely for one reason or another. Yes I know Persona is in no way comparable to Minecraft, but despite Steve/another Microsoft character making a lot of sense when sitting down to hash it out, Steve wasn't leaked basically at all. Similar to Joker, Steve came out of left field and there no smoke or paper trail leading us to any of them. As such, both characters got a very visceral reaction (I'd argue both characters had mostly good reactions in the grand scheme of things).
I'd say if Lloyd got in he'd be comparable to Terry because while he isn't the two aren't the most popular in the west, they are popular in other regions of the world and their franchises are quite popular in other places of the world. Both Lloyd and Terry both are kind of legacy characters that are pretty big franchise wise in actuality. Although... since Lloyd has actually been a long-time request in the hardcore Smash fanbase... maybe Ryu Hayabusa would fit the Terry description better since both have a legacy but both weren't requested by the hard-core Smash fanbase too much? Hmm...
Hero is tricker to pin down, though I suppose Lloyd would make sense here since the Tales of series is most popular in Japan. I suppose the only difference between the two characters (aside from Dragon Quest being bigger than Tales of), is that Lloyd has been a request worldwide in the hardcore Smash fanbase, whereas Hero was mainly requested in Japan.
Geno would obviously be comparable to Banjo & Kazooie. I don't think I have to explain why, but obviously Geno would be the more "irrelevant" character pick that is chosen because the Smash community wanted them so badly (and/or maybe because there are upcoming projects for both of the aforementioned characters
). Regardless, Geno is the pick that directly appeals to the Smash fanbase.
As for the final character, for me personally, I'm not gonna expect the moon. Smash has historically never ended on blow your pants off reveals, so it beats me. I have no clue what the order of announcements will be, but I would be shocked if we didn't get another first party Nintendo character at some point. As an aside, I'm honestly glad Steve was Fighter #7 because after the long drought I wanted a huge character that everyone in the gaming community knew so then Smash would be buzzing again. Like let's be honest, Geno wouldn't have done that. Hell, I want characters like Bandana Dee, Rex & Pyra, Dixie Kong, and Travis Touchdown, but those characters sure as well wouldn't have done that either. They're big to the hardcore Smash fanbase, but they're not as wide reaching. I was hoping there would be a huge, WTF left hook like Joker, and I was certainly happy to see Nintendo come through. Even if Steve wasn't my first choice, I still grew up with Minecraft so I suppose I have a soft spot for it. Plus, Minecraft's impact and legacy is undeniable so I think Steve fits well. Sure he looks pretty weird, but I sort of view him as a 3D Mr. Game & Watch. I wouldn't want a bunch of characters who looked weird like them, but I'm happy having a few weirdos like them!