- Aug 8, 2013
It certainly explains why insiders are hearing mid-to-late AugustBit of theorycraft on why the Direct is taking so long and this may help us not scream towards god in frustration if there's another delay in the future. Remember how I said there was an "ideal flow" to Smash announcements? Since 2013 it's basically been:
Yesterday I kind of realized, big picture wise, this is largely how Nintendo has handled big announcements in general. Nintendo tries to announce their big news during or close to these months. So, with this in mind, what happens when there are delays? Nintendo tries to get back on "schedule" and we've seen this three times with Smash in the past year alone.
-According to Imran Khan, Hero was supposed to be an E3 2019 shadowdrop but their release got delayed. They were delayed to literally the last day of July.
-According to Imran Khan, Byleth was supposed to be a December 2019 announcement but, once again, got delayed for unknown reasons. They were formally announced in mid January and released late January.
-There's lots of evidence that Min-Min was supposed to be an April release. She then got delayed to late June.
You'll notice that each time there's been delays, announcements are pushed close to the tail end of the next "step" in the ideal announcement flow. April announcements turn into late June announcements. December announcements turn into late January announcements. Basically Nintendo does this so that the rescheduling is close to the next step but doesn't outright replace it, making it easier to return to "normal" with their schedule.
This in mind, where does this leave us now? Min Min was delayed from April to late June. E3 was supposed to be in June. Based on past precedent, we'd assume that it would be rescheduled for late July like Hero was. If that's the case then why didn't this happen? It's because Min Min already filled the July "slot" by being in late June. I feel like this is why so many insiders were expecting a late July presentation. This would have potentially happened but we had two major delays in a row. With the "July" slot filled, this means the next available slot is September. What does this mean? This means to get back on schedule, Nintendo theoretically rescheduled "E3" for late August.
Where does that leave us now? Here are the takeaways:
-Min Min was supposed to be April, basically rescheduled to "July" ( late June).
-E3 was supposed to be June, theoretically rescheduled to "September" (late August).
-The Fall Direct has very consistently been in September the past couple of years, more than likely rescheduled to "November" (late October) to get back on schedule.
Min Min reschedule: April to late June
Probable "E3" reschedule: June to late August
Probable "Fall Direct" reschedule: September to late October
Bottom line: We're likely no more than two weeks away from finally, FINALLY getting the E3 Direct we were supposed to have in June but it's likely the 20th or later.