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Well, my thoughts on Geno will be coming in a big ass essay later this month since the character has been my numero uno for Smash since 2002 but, given I'm not super big into Crash, I'll explain why I think he's likely:
-Only one of two Western characters heard by insiders with the other being Geralt, a very obvious red herring or false information.
-Crash rumors first came out around E3. Banjo was supposedly negotiated around E3 2018 so the timing may actually be significant.
-Been requested since even before Melee and even had votes in the official poll that Nintendo of Japan ran after Smash 64.
-Activision has had a good relationship with Nintendo for a long time and has even done exclusive projects like the DK and Bowser Skylanders.
-Definitely an icon in his own right. Was literally a rival with Mario on par with Sonic at his peak. Despite not being a Sony exclusive in nearly two decades, is still considered by many to be a "Sony" mascot in the same vein that Banjo is now a "Microsoft" mascot.
-Crash's story is practically the same as Sonic's and definitely noteworthy in it's own right (former rival turned "friend.")
-Crash revival has been an overwhelming success and, unlike Banjo, is actually back to being relevant with modern audiences with extremely successful remasters to boot.