swift i think of punishing as exploiting the weakness in anything the other player does in order to inflict damage on them. it could be offensive or defensive, you can punish spot dodges with timed attacks or you can punish frequent fsmashing by shielding a lot. so yeah a variation in a mixup can punish someone, so long as it works.
umbreon, maybe i'm just having trouble imagining the type of scenario youre talking about, but i still dont see what you are getting at. you seem to claim that once you gain the advantage of a read on someone, you can outplay them from then on without having to risk much in your choices. i still maintain that even when you notice a pattern, it still wont be 100% certain that your opponent will do it the next time as well. if you notice a falco doing slow shffl'd dairs on your shield, leaving himself open in the time before the dair comes out, you don't gain anything from this knowledge unless you punish it. if you dont, then everything goes back to even. if you take advantage of this pattern, you risk getting hit/combo'd in the event he does an early dair, but you might be able to start a combo of your own. its about weighing risk vs reward and the likelihood that the pattern will continue and all that.
umbreon, maybe i'm just having trouble imagining the type of scenario youre talking about, but i still dont see what you are getting at. you seem to claim that once you gain the advantage of a read on someone, you can outplay them from then on without having to risk much in your choices. i still maintain that even when you notice a pattern, it still wont be 100% certain that your opponent will do it the next time as well. if you notice a falco doing slow shffl'd dairs on your shield, leaving himself open in the time before the dair comes out, you don't gain anything from this knowledge unless you punish it. if you dont, then everything goes back to even. if you take advantage of this pattern, you risk getting hit/combo'd in the event he does an early dair, but you might be able to start a combo of your own. its about weighing risk vs reward and the likelihood that the pattern will continue and all that.