I have given plenty of evidence.
And no, it is not ludicrous at all. Pass 2 was not supposed to exist. Steve, Sephiroth and Kazuya are timeless characters that could have been added to any future Smash game and Pyra and Min Min could have either been added to the base roster of the next Smash or left to be spirits forever and it would make no difference for Smash or Nintendo.
There is no reason for pass 2 to exist or to be the final pass unless there is a character in it that Nintendo desperately wants to reveal to finalize the dlc, and the only character that fits that is Nahobino.
While I can see the Argument for Nahobino being the Final character in FP2, I find it a little hard to believe that this scenario will be what is coming to FP2, and I find it especially unlikely for it to be the Inspiration for FP2 even happening, when we have evidence that contradicts that idea
Tekken and Minecraft in particular were said to have been requests by Nintendo from the Man Sakurai himself. I know Sakurai also said that Nintendo chose the DLC, but there are certain characters that Nintendo mainly focused on Nintendo when it came to the decision to include the characters
The Major reason Nintendo and Microsoft got to talking about Smash, and also a reason Banjo was able to get in, were through discussions about Minecraft and it's presence on the Wii U, and considering that Talks for Steve in Smash were said to have taken 5 years before he got in, there were Smash talks as far back as that. Probably a Same deal with Tekken also
Theoretically these characters are big enough to be saved for a Future Smash game, but Sakurai has made it known that all the effort is going into this game, and I think it would be unwise if Nintendo delayed talks with these 3rd party companies for a Future Smash game, when they could get them in now. You never know how relationships can end up years from now, where maybe getting them into a future game is unfeasible
In terms of the idea of Shin Megami Tensi being the final character, Shin Megami Tensi V is a Switch Exclusive yes, and Nintendo is doing a good job showcasing the game in the Directs, but when it comes to making Nahobino Smash DLC, it's kind of a hard sell
-Shin Megami Tensi is not a Franchise with Broad appeal, it's a Niche one. It's not a bad thing to be Niche, but it is a harder Sell to consider Niche things as DLC, and they need other factors to be seen as viable idea
-If you are seeing Nahobino from a similar stance to Corrin and Byleth, unlike those characters, Nahobino is a 3rd party character, which means having to work with a External Company not owned/Associated with Nintendo, as well as the Licensing fees and such. It also doesn't help that in this case, Nahobino at most will come out as Smash DLC only 1 month after the game comes out (if he was revealed in December) which doesn't give enough time for many people to become familiar with the character
To be fair, to U.S and European Audiences, we weren't familiar with Corrin either, so that's a factor, but still something to consider
Another Main thing is that while Nintendo seems to be helping with Publishing the game, I don't think Nintendo has been funding the game like they did with Bayonetta 2 as an example. If this was the case with Shin Megami Tensi, the idea would be stronger, but there's nothing to suggest that Nintendo has any stake in the game like that
And even with Bayonetta, Bayonetta didn't get in to help promote Bayonetta 2, as Bayonetta 2 came out a year before Bayonetta was revealed, and the reason given for her inclusion wasn't for helping to promote I.P or game, but because she was a Popular Character, and the Ballot winner. Even if the evidence shows that the Ballot couldn't have been taken into account into her inclusion for real, considering that Bayonetta did have requests to be in the game even before, and that Bayonetta 2 did really well with Critics and Fans, Nintendo probably had good reason she go well with Fans
It just makes it harder to see Nahobino as this forgone conclusion, when a 3rd Party franchise Nintendo actually had stake in didn't get in for promotional reasons. Nahobino's case seems similar to something like Daemon x Machina, which Nintendo also published, and show good amount in the directs, and all that game got was Spirit events
-In terms of the appeal, besides a promotional one, there's not really anything that would be going in Nahobino's Favor in terms of Appeal when he was chosen, as he'd have no Fan Reception or legacy when we didn't even know much about the character at all, and his game hasn't come out. Shin Megami as stated is a Niche franchise at that, being even more Niche than Persona. It's not like it's Pokemon in terms of appeal, and with Pokemon, not only does Nintendo own 33% of the franchise, but that also was with the Base roster, not as DLC where the character themselves are the main selling point. At least if you included someone like Jack Frost or Demi-fiend, those are characters that have shown to have Fanbase and legacy.
-And to compound all of that, he'd seemingly would need alot of work to actually be implemented in Smash. As his game wouldn't have come out, when chosen they would either have to use Assets given by Atlus team (like Artwork or Design documents) to visualize the moveset, or they would have to play a Build of the game that showcases all the moves, and remember that since this is a 3rd party character, Sakurai and the team has to make sure every idea is approved by Atlus
And Assuming they Nahobino's Main thing would be the Demon summoning, that is good amount of Model's to create, good amount of animations to animate, and having to fit all of this into cohesive moveset. Multi characters like Ice Climbers were already said to be trouble in implementing into Ultimate, and was also a reason Rex had to sit out. It could perhaps work with Nahobino, but that's still alot of work to do for a character which if you look at the actual merits, is kind of a hard sell anyway for Nintendo to take the initiative
With all of this being said, I can still see the possibility of Nahobino being the final character. It's just a little hard to see though, and I definitely don't think it's a forgone conclusion, or even likely conclusion.