Eeeyah911
Smash Cadet
Sounds like a weird name for a new console.
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Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II
- Thread starter Cyn
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RoboFist
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Aug 10, 2018
- Messages
- 374
- Amaterasu: 10%. I know it's going to be up for debate right up until the last character is announced, but I really don't think we're getting a Capcom rep after that costume wave. And even if we did, Clover's long gone and our very good sun goddess doggo doesn't have anything on the horizon that would push Nintendo (or Capcom for that matter) to include her.
- Shantae: 10%. Nintendo clearly saw the love Shantae fans poured out during the ballot, and I obviously don't believe that Spirits deconfirm, but...come on. Let's be honest with ourselves here, guys. An indie rep who is technically represented in base game isn't going to be one of the final two Fighters in Ultimate. She has no 3D model to even reference and I'm sure Nintendo Japan would have a hell of a time translating her outfit into the game. Maybe next time, but I'm just hoping for a Spirit Event or Mii costume at best now.
- Neku Sakuraba: 15%. After NEO was announced, his odds never looked better. Then Sephiroth impaled those chances and threw them into an imploding star. Still, I have very high hopes that we'll get something when the new game comes out. I'll settle for a Spirit Event, Sakurai!
- Chell: 20%. I still really think that we'll get a PC-centric character, and while it'll more than likely be someone from an MMO or esport title, it still puts a character from Valve in the running. The biggest thing holding her back is her moveset, but let me dream this 20% of a dream!
- Ring Fit Adventurer: 40%. It's entirely possible that Nintendo foresaw the success of Ring Fit while they were compiling FP2, so she has a chance. That being said, they'd be the third first-party characters in this Pass alone and I can't imagine she'd be a thrilling reveal with only two spots left...
- Eggman: 65%. He's got the highest odds, but he's far from a shoe-in. Would Nintendo want to double-dip with Sonic? Would they pick Eggman over Tails or Shadow? Would they want to add another villain in the same pass as Sephiroth? On the other hand, it is a big anniversary year for Sonic, and Sega would probably love that kind of push...just wishful thinking over here...
- Lyn, Skull Kid, Takamaru, Midna: Deconfirmed via Assist Trophies.
- Leon Kennedy, Tetromino, Paper Mario: Deconfirmed via Spirit Events.
So...if I were a betting man, I'd have to either go all in on Eggman and prepare for the worst or fold, take my many winnings, and just go home. I'm leaning towards the latter haha.
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Gengar84
Smash Hero
- Joined
- Dec 9, 2009
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- 7,150
There are so many characters I would love to see that it’s really hard to narrow down to just 10 characters. I’ll try to keep my list at least somewhat realistic even though none are really likely:
1) Rash/Pimple/Zitz (Battletoads)
2) Illidan Stormrage (Warcraft)
3) Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors)
4) Velvet Crowe (Tales of Vesperia)
5) Gengar (Pokémon)
6) Sarah Kerrigan (Starcraft)
7) Sub-Zero (Mortal Kombat)
8) Bill Rizer/Lance Bean (Contra)
9) Akira Howard (Astral Chain)
10) Dixie Kong (Donkey Kong Country)
Pretty much all my other most wanted characters have almost no chance to get in. I would love Magus, Fulgore, Xemnas, Goomba, Medusa, Vincent Valentine, Cofagrigus, Pharaoh Man, Nia, Raziel, Death, and tons of others but I don’t see those happening.
1) Rash/Pimple/Zitz (Battletoads)
2) Illidan Stormrage (Warcraft)
3) Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors)
4) Velvet Crowe (Tales of Vesperia)
5) Gengar (Pokémon)
6) Sarah Kerrigan (Starcraft)
7) Sub-Zero (Mortal Kombat)
8) Bill Rizer/Lance Bean (Contra)
9) Akira Howard (Astral Chain)
10) Dixie Kong (Donkey Kong Country)
Pretty much all my other most wanted characters have almost no chance to get in. I would love Magus, Fulgore, Xemnas, Goomba, Medusa, Vincent Valentine, Cofagrigus, Pharaoh Man, Nia, Raziel, Death, and tons of others but I don’t see those happening.
PeridotGX
Smash Hero
Let's see...
- Grovyle (PMD). I wouldn't say he's impossible, the lack of a PMD spirit event a year after release is still suspect to me. I wouldn't give him any more than 5% though, too many things going against him.
- Maxwell (Scribblenauts). Pretty unlikely, Scribblenauts is dead and Maxwell has no real reason for inclusion. Basically 0%
- Bandana Dee (Kirby). He doesn't fit the pattern the DLC is following, i'd say he's close to a 0%.
- Frisk (Undertale). This is an odd one. I'm almost 100% sure we're getting an Undertale rep, but I'm also almost 100% sure it won't be Frisk. Min Min and Pythra prove that if they want a more intresting side character over the main character, they do it. I'm pretty sure the Undertale rep would be Papyrus or Toriel (who I would like, but I think Frisk has infinitely more potential).
- X (Mega Man X). Mii'd, 0%.
3BitSaurus
Smash Master
...Seeing how much Shared Content already alludes to that, I don't see why it requires more functions.
(Why you gotta choose words that make these jokes easier Rie, goddamn)
Gengar84
Smash Hero
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I would love Grovyle and X. Grovyle is my favorite grass starter overall and X is my favorite version of Mega Man. Very good choices.
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Since they're fighters, adding their Spirits onto the Spirit Board would only serve as artificial filler.
BlondeLombax
Smash Master
As I said before, I've given up hope on chances, but I guess I'll contribute anyway...
7NATOR
Smash Master
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Before I post my thoughts, I will just say that there was that Time Sony (the gaming branch) did go to that Smash Spa tournament. It's possible there may have been some discussions started there, though yeah I heavily doubt a Sony character, especially in this pass
Anyway of My Most wanted characters, I would say
Shadow
Goku (Or other DBZ Characters)
Vergil
Noob Saibot
Akuma (with Shin and Oni Transformations)
The Latter 4 characters are definitely not happening in any Capacity, especially Goku since his Deconfirmation is Official. Also While I did speculate Mortal Kombat for a long time, I don't think they'd be in FP2, but maybe discussions for Future Smash, and even then they would put in Scorpion and/or Sub-Zero, not Noob. They could give Sub Noob like moves like in Injustice 2
Now Shadow is my Most wanted character, and also the Most likely too. To be honest, I think Shadow is one of the most undermined characters in Smash Speculated history, and there's no bias when I say this
The reason I say this is because Shadow never really hasn't been speculated on his own merits. the only time people actually payed attention to him (Base Game Ultimate Speculation) was as an Echo Fighter, not his own Fighter. When I did try to speculate him on his own accord, A lot of the time People wouldn't find him likely anymore (which is their opinion, that's fine) and some would even call me delusional for even thinking he can get in as his own Fighter, and his only chance is Echo Fighter
I was Younger than, So I didn't know how to accurate counter their arguments for why he can only be an Echo Fighter with the most logical reasons, and give my reasons for why he actually makes sense as his own Fighter
I'm older now, So I think I can logically say why I think Shadow is a likely character, and why some of the main arguments against him aren't as much of an obstacle as people make it seem. The Main arguments I've seen have been
-Shadow is an Assist Trophy, and therefore can't be in
-Shadow would only be an Echo Fighter, and the fact he couldn't even be one kills his chances for FP2
-Shadow wouldn't be able to get in over Eggman and Tails
-The Assist Trophy point does have Precedent going for it, because we haven't seen an Assist Promoted within the same game. The thing is that FP2 has been really good at killing Precedent, whether it be Spirit rule or 3rd party franchises can't have Multiple unique reps. Precedent would not be the reason the Assist Trophy point as any merit
The Most Logical thing I think is in favor of the Assist Trophy thing is that since these characters already have some sort of presence within the gameplay, that other characters might be prioritized in favor of Assist Promotions, that or that they added their Assist knowning they wouldnn't be chosen long term.
The Latter point I could see being a thing for Spring Man, since he was newly intoduced into Ultimate, and it's also possible Sakurai already was thinking about who to Rep ARMS between Min Min and Ninjara
Every Assist Trophy is different, and Shadow is a veteran Assist Trophy at that, so that does change the situation. If they left his assist trophy out, not only would that be a downgrade in Role, and he'd be seen on the same level as characters like Tingle and Magnus who couldn't even have their Assists return, but if FP2 was not a thing he'd just be left without Assist
Obviously they couldn't fit him into the Base roster, but that applies to pretty much every character that's been DLC, whether that includes Sephiroth, Terry, Steve, etc.
In any case, Stuff like the Bomberman costume does show that NPC characters are having their roles reconsidered, and I don't see Bomberman being the only character this applies to, especially since I imagine characters like Shadow and Waluigi might have more priority for reasons
We also know that Sakurai has NOT Officially deconfirmed the idea of Assists deconfirming, when he went out of his way to also state the "No Manga/Anime character rule
-Now Shadow as an Echo Fighter was one of the most common predictions Base game, and I would say for man was probably the most surprising Snub from the Base roster, because it should have been a very easy and logical addition, and that something had to have happened between Sega for this to not happen, or Perhaps Nintendo does not care for Shadow. either way it doesn't paint a good picture for Shadow
However, a lot of people also don't acknowledge the possibility that perhaps Shadow was never meant to be an Echo Fighter, that he was seen more on his Own merits
The whole thing with Echo Fighters is that it adds characters that normally wouldn't be able to get in on their own accord, for any particular reasons, whether it be because of lack of Moveset potential, Lack of relevancy, or etc. They can get in as an Echo due to Extra Dev time, and/or heavy ability to re-use assets and being able to only be balanced against their Parent Fighter
If you notice, while All of the Echo Fighters do have their own merit, whether they are popular characters, they all lacked something that prevented them as Unique Fighters
-Chrom was confirmed by Sakurai to be passed over because he couldn't think of anything that wasn't a mix of Marth and Ike. Lucina might be an extension of this since she does share the fighting style of her Father, though because she tried to copy Marth, she might be in Worse situation, which is why she was planned as costume, than turn into Echo later
-Dark Pit, to my knowledge, does not have anything that separates him from Pit in regards to Ability and Fighting style. He is Heavily associated with the Staff (and I do think he should have had this as a Special, not just Final Smash), but otherwise not much. Along with the fact that he was only in one game and Palutena was prioritized for reasons, does show why he be echo
-Daisy should NOT have been a Carbon copy of Peach, but with that being said she doesn't really have much to her name in terms of abilities. I know there was the popular idea she could use Sports equipment, but that is something that could apply to Any Mario character (Peach even uses some in her Forward Smash). this is also something that people give Waluigi mess for. Beyond that Daisy hadn't shown that much deviation in terms of potential abilities
-Dark Samus was heavily irrelevant by the time she was included in Ultimate, as she hadn't appeared in a game in pretty much a Decade, and it was assumed she would stay dead for the forseeable future. along with the fact that Ridley was the major Priority, and that's why She's an echo I would assume
-Richter Shares his moveset with Simon
-Ken has his differences as an echo, to the point that people say he is a Semi-Clone
The main point is that All the Echo Fighters all had reasons for why they were Echoes instead of Full fledged fighters. they probably would not have gotten in otherwise when other characters were being prioritized, and you can see that with every character baring Ken (who also is the Most unique Echo anyways), they all came with a Full Fledged Newcomer either in Base roster or later on.
The thing is that characters like Shadow, and Dixie Kong do have all the merits to actually be considered as their own Fighters. They are Popular, Relevant to both their franchise and gaming, Iconic Very requested fighters, and have shown Moveset abilities or ideas that can allow them to be different from the Rest of the cast.
I would say that the main reason that characters like Shadow and Dixie were seen really as Echo Fighters is that they had Similar Body types, they have shown somewhat in their games Similar abilities or Playstyles to their potential parent character (especially Shadow), and were seen as being out-prioritized by other Potential additions, which is something that they share with the Echo Fighters, but the difference is that IN SPITE of all of that, they do have enough in their corner to be considered on their own
King K.Rool did get in over Dixie, so she was out-prioritized by him, but that doesn't mean she couldn't be saved for later, whether in this pass or Next Game. She will always have a presence in her Franchise and in Smash Speculation. Some characters have had to wait for their turn, even if they had the merit to join, whether it's characters like Wario, King Dedede, Bowser Jr, and others, Especially since Ultimate had such low number of Base game newcomers anyway
There was no Sonic character in Base roster, so there's no case of overshadowing, and as for Another Sonic character in FP2
-I do see alot of the time that Shadow wouldn't be able to get in over characters like Eggman or Tails, that there's no reason that would happen, when that is not the case. Shadow does have some merit over these characters
The Main important thing is that he is the 2nd Most Popular character within the fandom, and Sega has officially acknowledged this. I think this is even more impressive considering that Shadow is a more recent character in comparison to Eggman, Tails, & Knuckles.
Are Eggman, Tails, & Knuckles more Iconic than Shadow, I would say yes, but I would also say that Shadow is also a very Iconic character too, whether it be for better or for worse. I don't think Eggman, Tails, & Knuckles are that above Shadow in terms of Iconic factor that it would cut Shadow from the conversation for Another Sonic character all together. Even if someone were not to know who Shadow was, if they did see him they could recongnize that he is from Sonic
In terms of Smash requests, I would say on the more Casual Sites Shadow was probably the most popular character request for Another Sonic character, and keep in mind for alot of the time he's been requested, he's also been an Assist Trophy, and he's going against Iconic characters like Tails & Knuckles as well
Tails & Knuckles I would say were more popular with the hardcore speculation sites, since I find more Shadow hate around the hardcore spots, but Shadow as had a presence, even if it was to meme and make fun of him
In regards to Eggman, This massive amount of Support is very recent. Tails, Shadow, & Knuckles had always been the choices people gravitated towards in regards to potential second Sonic characters. This also adds up with how usually, the Popularity scale within the fanbase goes Sonic, then Shadow, then Tails, then Knuckles, then Eggman
This is not to say Eggman has no Merit either. It's Eggman for goodness sake, and I will say Eggman has gotten more popular over the years also, but that I don't think as a choice he has all the cards in his favor.
Another thing is in regards to the Potential moveset. This is not to say none of the Main 4 (Eggman, Tails, Shadow, & Knuckles) don't have moveset potential, but just that they all have different ideas from each other, and their own potential implementation woes and such
In regards to Shadow, the Idea of a character that controls Space and Time is one I would find to be very interesting. The Main problems I could see with it is balancing, but I think that is something that could be overcome. Shadow also has the advantage of already having a Model ingame, and a Potential rig (Sonic's) to re-use for animating and such, which can cut down time on that front and perhaps have more time in Implementation the abilities in Balanced way
and Like I said, this is not to say the other 3 don't have their own moveset ideas, is just that they all differ from each other and that they have their own pros and Cons. with Eggman in Particular, there is the discussion on how to actually implement him, and how that could be a major problem. There have been ideas to make him like Bowser Jr., or have him use Smaller Mechs, but Sakurai did say that he Implements Boss Characters as Boss characters, and typically Eggman likes to use his VERY Big Machines, as they best show of his capabilities. Pretty much there is alot of figuring out and potential sacrifices that perhaps need to be made in regards to Eggman. These are factors I'm sure the development team does take into consideration
And other Miscellaneous stuff, the Head of Sonic team, Iizuka, Favorite character is Shadow the Hedgehog, and Aaron Webber, who has worked with Sega on Sonic stuff, did say that in his opinion, Shadow and Knuckles would make the most sense
Aaron Webber clip
There are also sources for other info in my Shadow document, which is located in my Sig
As for the idea of Another Sonic character even getting into FP2, It's a likely idea, considering how there have been alot of requests for More Sonic content, the fact the franchise has been staying relevant and popular despite a lot of misshaps over the years, And that we see that other Companies represented in FP1 were talked about for multiple characters
Considering it is Sonic's 30th anniversary, and Sega also does rely on Sonic as a brand, There was definitly discussion for another Sonic character in my Opinion
Also Any of the Main 4, I would say would be comparable to a character like Sephiroth. You could argue that maybe Sephiroth was more impactful of a character on his own than Eggman, Tails, Shadow, & Knuckles, but It's very likely that Sonic characters are more recognizable than Sephiroth is (Except for maybe Japan) considering that as a Brand, Sonic has been in more mediums and is also more consistent since unlike Final Fantasy, the characters stay appearing consistently in the other games and media
with that being Said, that is just reasons why I think my Most wanted Character, Shadow the Hedgehog, does have good chances and that the arguments against him have nuance to it, and are not the Obstacles people make it out to be
ALongWistfulSquiggle
Smash Lord
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Wait. Do Waddle Dees with other hats exist? Or are you thinking a Pikachu situation where it's kinda made up?Take from Hell; I think a regular old Waddle Dee would be more likely, maybe with B.W. Dee as an alt alongside other hat-wearing Dees. That being said, the little guy could still rock the spear and parasol, so I doubt there'd be much of a difference.
Guynamednelson
Smash Legend
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Sailor Waddle Dee.
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Hmm, let's see...
- Shantae (still a pretty obscure series all things considered and bigger indie stars like Shovel Knight couldn't make the cut either)
- Dante (kinda looking like Capcom's out of the running entirely)
- Monster Hunter (MH Mii costumes killed it)
- KOS-MOS (I know it's a different series but I doubt Nintendo would double up on the "Xeno" reps in one pass)
- Lyn (Assist Trophy Hell and she can't be used to plug the next FE game)
- Miriam (Bloodstained is a little too niche for anything more than maybe some spirits or a costume)
- Doom Slayer (supposedly disconfirmed in an interview)
- Bravely Default character (killed by Sephiroth and BD2 spirit event)
- Ryu Hayabusa (...maaaaaaybe? lol)
- Arle Nadja (see above)
So yeah, it ain't looking too good for a lot of them. Pyra/Mythra were my #1 most wanted though so I'm not sweatin' it anymore if the rest don't make it in. Really satisfied with the roster now.
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Idon
Smash Legend
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My most wanteds?
Faso115
Smash Lord
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Notice how most of the first parties we got from the DLC debuted in the Switch. So i guess that's another pattern to keep in mind.
And the only first party that it this point makes a lot of sense and fits the pattern is a Gen 8 pokemon. So yeah, patterns blow.
I'm honestly 75% certain Pokemon is getting something.
And the only first party that it this point makes a lot of sense and fits the pattern is a Gen 8 pokemon. So yeah, patterns blow.
I'm honestly 75% certain Pokemon is getting something.
BlondeLombax
Smash Master
Plus the royal guard Waddle Dees in KBR, not to mention all the hats that they could wear in that game. You could even throw on the café hat, if you'd like!
BoopsDoopsYT
Smash Rookie
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Double post
man i just want arle or phoenix, either of those would be nice. arle's a cute character from an underrated series, pheonix is a cool dude that has potential, especially since he was already in a fighting game
arle nadja/phoenix wright for smash
Rie Sonomura
fly octo fly
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ARandomZoomer
Smash Apprentice
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At this point I can't help but wonder if there will be any Tales of content that isn't the Lloyd costume, which would bite since every other returning mii costume has something even if it's small as the Pac-man taunt cameo
2006ToyotaTacoma
Smash Journeyman
I won't lie when I say I fully expect Lloyd's costume to return, and if we do get a new Tales rep it'll almost certainly be Yuri.
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They said they want BWD but would get more excited about a third party and are more interested in crossovers. What exactly is the strawman here?
What do these numbers mean? If they are probabilities, do you understand that an event with probability greater than 1/2 is more likely than not to occur?
I don't have to imagine. They're in Project M.
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SpecterFlower
Smash Ace
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Mythra was also released.
Pillow
Smash Lord
I figured it was obvious, but they're ratings based a scale from 1-10 with 1 being least likely and 10 being most likely...
Rie Sonomura
fly octo fly
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Uhhhh... Pythra is a portmanteau of Pyra and Mythra together lmao
Shroob
Sup?
So this was a fun patch ngl.
Now we just gotta wait until probably June.
I'll be 30 then.
....oh my god I'll be 30 years old in June.
Now we just gotta wait until probably June.
I'll be 30 then.
....oh my god I'll be 30 years old in June.
3BitSaurus
Smash Master
Mario is only 5 years older than you.So this was a fun patch ngl.
Now we just gotta wait until probably June.
I'll be 30 then.
....oh my god I'll be 30 years old in June.
Let that sink in.
Shroob
Sup?
Mario is only 5 years older than you.
Let that sink in.
I dunno, I don't really trust random sinks.
Mushroomguy12
Smash Hero
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Paraster
Smash Lord
I did some counting for a project I'm working on, and found that if Echo Fighters were given their own numbers (instead of sharing the number of their originals), the final DLC character would be number...89.
I kinda hope we get another multi-fighter or bonus so we can hit a clean 90 total fighters.
I kinda hope we get another multi-fighter or bonus so we can hit a clean 90 total fighters.
BlondeLombax
Smash Master
Can I just say one thing?
If the Heavy gets added by some miracle, can we pray that one of his taunts is the Conga? A game where you play as the Heavy and not be given the option to go full Hoovy isn't a game at all.
If the Heavy gets added by some miracle, can we pray that one of his taunts is the Conga? A game where you play as the Heavy and not be given the option to go full Hoovy isn't a game at all.
Shroob
Sup?
It's not full Hoovy without crouchwalking with the Sandvich out spamming the E key.
cashregister9
Smash Hero
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A TF2 character probably wouldn't be able to use anything made in the Steam workshop.
Luckily the Conga was created by valve so If Heavy ever gets in it can and possibly will be Conga Time!
Luckily the Conga was created by valve so If Heavy ever gets in it can and possibly will be Conga Time!
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SpecterFlower
Smash Ace
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I was tired.
3BitSaurus
Smash Master
...
...I was... literally... JUST watching a fanmade victory screen with that.
...Where in my room did you put the camera, Lombax!?
(It looked cool tho, ngl)
EDIT: the video in question
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Your numbers add up to more than 20/10, and there are only two spots left in the pass. That means you ****ed up, or they aren't representative of the probabilities they would normally denote.
BlondeLombax
Smash Master
I've been a fan of TF2 for a long time, despite having only played since 2017 (and even then, I'm absolutely horrendous at the game; its magical ability to keep you from being mad at your own deaths is amazing), so I know a lot of community stuff.
Shroob
Sup?
....uh, no?
Think of the numbers as percentages. So, for example, if someone says "3/10", they're basically saying "30% chance". Their numbers check out.
3BitSaurus
Smash Master
I can imagine. Valve games seem to have this uncanny ability to have strong fanbases that can endure long periods of "sorry nothing".
...Since we're on the topic, I wanna ask something: people always put one of the mercs at the front, but how would one go about representing all classes (a staple of the game) into one moveset?
Sounds like a massive headache imo, but I'm curious to see what fans think.
chocolatejr9
Smash Hero
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Question, how would Niko even work in Smash?
3BitSaurus
Smash Master
...Honest answer? No ******* clue.
It's not just "Niko doesn't fight", it's that the biggest draw of OneShot is being insanely meta. I presume that aspect would be translated somehow, but I have no idea how they'd even begin to approach that concept.
Guynamednelson
Smash Legend
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You'd be in the middle of a combo, only to accidentally answer your phone and be greeted with COUSIN, LET'S GO BOWLING.
Oh, that other Niko. Not sure.
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