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Um.....the first game I ever played was Lego Star Wars so that is illegal, though I actually would not mind it honestly. Other than that, I believe I played one of the Crash games. Speaking of......
At this point, I would be satisfied if I just got Crash. I would be able to die happy at that point even if I don't get Phoenix. Crash is near and dear to my heart so he would make the roster feel as full as realistically possible in my books. Hayabusa would be a nice bonus. Ninja Gaiden is one of my favorite game series and NES series. I would be hyped for Unbreakable Determination alone and while Sheik and Greninja already kind of fill the ninja spot, Hayabusa would push past them as the definitive ninja with carefully timed attacks and combos as well as a variety of powerups and weapons.
Do you actually like games that aren't owned by Nintendo or are you physically allergic to third parties? The idea people like third parties solely because they're not owned by Nintendo instead of, y'know, liking those characters, is ridiculous and you know it yourself. I'm surprised you're still pulling this after we just got a 2 in 1 Nintendo character which means the pass is 50/50 on first and third parties.
My first game (at least as far as I remember) was Sonic the Hedgehog 2. Sonic's playable, but Tails was actually my first video game character I played ever. Maybe one day.
Call me crazy but I still think the final presentation will be a dual reveal like with smash 4. They’re both done, just show them in action side by side with their reveals. They just don’t have to release at the same time.
I am in fact calling the final presentation will be in May, CP10 launching later in May, CP11 launching in august
At this point, I feel like Crash is one of the last "blockbuster" reveals that would safely appeal to an enormous audience. I was always more of a Spyro guy myself and never really understood Crash's popularity, but I certainly wouldn't mind another 90s platforming mascot joining the roster whatsoever.
Hayabusa is where things get iffy for me. I'd be perfectly okay with him getting in, but we're all fooling ourselves if we think his reveal will be universally beloved by gamers across the globe or something haha. In the grand scheme of things, I personally think he would kind of end Ultimate's roster on a whimper.
At the same time, I have my biggest most-wanteds in the game already, so I'd be happy to see Ninja Gaiden fans happy.
This is where I'm at, too. The next two characters, no matter who they are, are going to feel so bittersweet...I just hope neither of them are gods edge-guarding. My poor boy Simon has already suffered too much during FP2 haha
I love this. Even though it's "just" a Mii costume, that's the representation that makes Smash work on such a powerful nostalgic/fan-servicey level to me. It's why I was so stupidly emotional when Sonic (S3&K was the first game I ever beat) and especially Duck Hunt (the first game I ever played) were announced.
Happy for you that Arthur got a bit of love, too, man.
Actually, yeah, let's play this game: Who is your "first game rep" and do they have playable representation in Ultimate yet?
(hey, if nothing else, it shakes up the conversation a tiny bit today haha)
At this point, how many of your most wanteds do you think have a solid chance?
My top 10 most wanted characters are:
Crash
Phoenix
Doomguy
Monokuma
Agumon
Master Chief
Kratos
Crypto
Nightmare
Bill Rizer
Out of all those, I think Crash and Phoenix have the most realistic shot. Yes, I still think Phoenix is likely because well let's say that he is CP10 or CP11, Nintendo and Capcom would have negotiated for multiple Capcom characters as Mii costumes, but Capcom asked that the MH costumes and Arthur be pushed earlier to CP9 to coincide with MH Rise and GnG Resurrection. I think that is a likely scenario. As for Crash, his merits have been stated many times so I won't go there.
The only other characters that have a decent shot are Agumon, Nightmare, and Bill Rizer. I could see any of these being the E3 or even the "underwhelming" last pick. Digimon, Soul Calibur, and Contra certainly have their merits and the first two have gone through a sort of surge in popularity in recent years. Bill Rizer I still say is likely because Konami has got nothing since base game and if Arthur's costume is anything to go by, Nintendo is still looking to represent more NES series. Yes Arthur only has a costume and spirit, but that is beside the point and people have been speculating Hayabusa, another NES icon, too.
I don't see the others having a realistic chance honestly. Danganronpa shockingly is still not on the Switch. I personally subscribe to the idea that third parties will not get multiple characters in the same pass, so I don't think Master Chief is happening, even if he is the type of character that would break this fan rule. I don't see Nintendo approaching Sony for a character, Crypto is too niche (Hopefully the teased sequel will be on the Switch so people can try out the games), and Doomguy got deconfirmed in an interview.
At this point, how many of your most wanteds do you think have a solid chance?
My top 10 most wanted characters are:
Crash
Phoenix
Doomguy
Monokuma
Agumon
Master Chief
Kratos
Crypto
Nightmare
Bill Rizer
Out of all those, I think Crash and Phoenix have the most realistic shot. Yes, I still think Phoenix is likely because well let's say that he is CP10 or CP11, Nintendo and Capcom would have negotiated for multiple Capcom characters as Mii costumes, but Capcom asked that the MH costumes and Arthur be pushed earlier to CP9 to coincide with MH Rise and GnG Resurrection. I think that is a likely scenario. As for Crash, his merits have been stated many times so I won't go there.
The only other characters that have a decent shot are Agumon, Nightmare, and Bill Rizer. I could see any of these being the E3 or even the "underwhelming" last pick. Digimon, Soul Calibur, and Contra certainly have their merits and the first two have gone through a sort of surge in popularity in recent years. Bill Rizer I still say is likely because Konami has got nothing since base game and if Arthur's costume is anything to go by, Nintendo is still looking to represent more NES series. Yes Arthur only has a costume and spirit, but that is beside the point and people have been speculating Hayabusa, another NES icon, too.
I don't see the others having a realistic chance honestly. Danganronpa shockingly is still not on the Switch. I personally subscribe to the idea that third parties will not get multiple characters in the same pass, so I don't think Master Chief is happening, even if he is the type of character that would break this fan rule. I don't see Nintendo approaching Sony for a character, Crypto is too niche (Hopefully the teased sequel will be on the Switch so people can try out the games), and Doomguy got deconfirmed in an interview.
With Monster Hunter dead in the water and my other most wanteds either in already or deconfirmed, I suppose my "most wanteds" for the last two fighters would be:
Demifiend/Flynn/SMTV protag
Spyro (though I wouldn't mind Crash)
KOS MOS
Ahri
and some that aren't yet deconfirmed but still super-unlikely:
I'm in the same boat. I love first-parties because...y'know, Smash is a Nintendo game and I grew up with Nintendo haha.
But the only first-party characters I'd be super hype for anymore would be the more niche, "nostalgic" characters, who are always a better fit for base game. Most of them are already ATs (Takamaru, Isaac, Lyn, Skull Kid, Midna) and others like Ring Fit Adventurer more than likely missed the boat for the FP2 timeframe. That only leaves characters like Dixie Kong and...yeah, I guess just Dixie Kong haha.
As much as I'd personally love to see any of those characters sneak in as DLC, I've completely come to terms with the fact that they're going to have to wait. And if we're speaking completely objectively and honestly, ending the Pass with someone like Dixie, Chorus KIds, or Bandana Dee would cause the fanbase as a whole to meltdown with unbridled rage.
And with Sakurai seemingly catching up on the first-party representation that he didn't originally have time for, I think the last two slots should give third-parties more to shine.
At this point, how many of your most wanteds do you think have a solid chance?
My top 10 most wanted characters are:
Crash
Phoenix
Doomguy
Monokuma
Agumon
Master Chief
Kratos
Crypto
Nightmare
Bill Rizer
Out of all those, I think Crash and Phoenix have the most realistic shot. Yes, I still think Phoenix is likely because well let's say that he is CP10 or CP11, Nintendo and Capcom would have negotiated for multiple Capcom characters as Mii costumes, but Capcom asked that the MH costumes and Arthur be pushed earlier to CP9 to coincide with MH Rise and GnG Resurrection. I think that is a likely scenario. As for Crash, his merits have been stated many times so I won't go there.
The only other characters that have a decent shot are Agumon, Nightmare, and Bill Rizer. I could see any of these being the E3 or even the "underwhelming" last pick. Digimon, Soul Calibur, and Contra certainly have their merits and the first two have gone through a sort of surge in popularity in recent years. Bill Rizer I still say is likely because Konami has got nothing since base game and if Arthur's costume is anything to go by, Nintendo is still looking to represent more NES series. Yes Arthur only has a costume and spirit, but that is beside the point and people have been speculating Hayabusa, another NES icon, too.
I don't see the others having a realistic chance honestly. Danganronpa shockingly is still not on the Switch. I personally subscribe to the idea that third parties will not get multiple characters in the same pass, so I don't think Master Chief is happening, even if he is the type of character that would break this fan rule. I don't see Nintendo approaching Sony for a character, Crypto is too niche (Hopefully the teased sequel will be on the Switch so people can try out the games), and Doomguy got deconfirmed in an interview.
I don’t remember if this is the exact first game I played, but it’s one of four that I remember being a big part of my childhood before I got any consoles. (The other three are Slyder Adventures, Toy Story 2, and the Emperor’s New Groove for the PC). So without further ado...
Hamster rolls in!
tbh this would be such a confusing choice and a slap in the face to Monkey Ball fans, but I’d be one of like five people who’d pop off if this happened
At this point, how many of your most wanteds do you think have a solid chance?
My top 10 most wanted characters are:
Crash
Phoenix
Doomguy
Monokuma
Agumon
Master Chief
Kratos
Crypto
Nightmare
Bill Rizer
Out of all those, I think Crash and Phoenix have the most realistic shot. Yes, I still think Phoenix is likely because well let's say that he is CP10 or CP11, Nintendo and Capcom would have negotiated for multiple Capcom characters as Mii costumes, but Capcom asked that the MH costumes and Arthur be pushed earlier to CP9 to coincide with MH Rise and GnG Resurrection. I think that is a likely scenario. As for Crash, his merits have been stated many times so I won't go there.
The only other characters that have a decent shot are Agumon, Nightmare, and Bill Rizer. I could see any of these being the E3 or even the "underwhelming" last pick. Digimon, Soul Calibur, and Contra certainly have their merits and the first two have gone through a sort of surge in popularity in recent years. Bill Rizer I still say is likely because Konami has got nothing since base game and if Arthur's costume is anything to go by, Nintendo is still looking to represent more NES series. Yes Arthur only has a costume and spirit, but that is beside the point and people have been speculating Hayabusa, another NES icon, too.
I don't see the others having a realistic chance honestly. Danganronpa shockingly is still not on the Switch. I personally subscribe to the idea that third parties will not get multiple characters in the same pass, so I don't think Master Chief is happening, even if he is the type of character that would break this fan rule. I don't see Nintendo approaching Sony for a character, Crypto is too niche (Hopefully the teased sequel will be on the Switch so people can try out the games), and Doomguy got deconfirmed in an interview.
Captain Toad/Toad (with Toadette alt regardless of which)
Dixie Kong
Impa
Meowth & Team Rocket
Tails
Bandana Waddle Dee
Chris Redfield
Heavy Weapons Guy
Bomberman
Officer Howard
Out the running:
Captain Toad is a background element. His chances might increase for next Smash if we get a Treasure Tracker 2. Toad is stuck in Peach and now Daisy's moveset but I can't see a 'Chrom' being pulled with him. Toadette isn't coming without one of the Toads. Impa was recently done in by a Spirit Event for her Age of Calamity form. Her Hyrule Warriors form has nothing, but, ya know...Zelda fighters. Meowth and Team Rocket aren't likely to happen, despite being evergreen choices because the Pokemon company only wants to promote the latest game. Tails was done in by a Mii outfit in FP1. Chris Redfield was done in by the Resident Evil spirit event which included him, Jill, Leon and Wesker...basically the front runners for a RE character. Heavy is an absolute pipe dream. Valve have barely a connection to Nintendo, First Person Shooters aren't big in Japan and it's a western company with Sakurai stating the language barrier can be a problem. Even then, Valve have other equally big IPs like Half Life and Portal to contend with. Bomberman is as close to playable as he can get without being an actual fighter with a pretty good Mii outfit and assist trophy role. Officer Howard was done in by the Astral Chain Spirit Event.
Leaving:
Dixie and Bandana Waddle Dee are the only ones who vaguely stand a shot in hell(as they don't have other roles in the game outside being base game spirits or are an impossible dream like Heavy)
But with Pyra and Mythra I think we're done with first parties...effectively killing any chances for anyone I kinda like. Now what do I do?
So, after playing P/M for a bit, I think I would definitely make Sakurai disappointed...
Because I can't choose. I like them both as characters.
The two have joined and as my "simple, dumb fun picks" in DLC and I love them for it. Though I have to say I'm worried it won't stay that way for long, as their skill ceiling might be one of the highest in all of Smash. I think we'll see some crazy **** being pulled at tournaments.
I have a question, though: what is Mythra's speed classification? I swear she legit feels almost as fast as Sonic, maybe even a bit faster in the air.
It's been a few months since I've last played Sonic tho, so I could be wrong.
At this point, how many of your most wanteds do you think have a solid chance?
My top 10 most wanted characters are:
Crash
Phoenix
Doomguy
Monokuma
Agumon
Master Chief
Kratos
Crypto
Nightmare
Bill Rizer
Out of all those, I think Crash and Phoenix have the most realistic shot. Yes, I still think Phoenix is likely because well let's say that he is CP10 or CP11, Nintendo and Capcom would have negotiated for multiple Capcom characters as Mii costumes, but Capcom asked that the MH costumes and Arthur be pushed earlier to CP9 to coincide with MH Rise and GnG Resurrection. I think that is a likely scenario. As for Crash, his merits have been stated many times so I won't go there.
The only other characters that have a decent shot are Agumon, Nightmare, and Bill Rizer. I could see any of these being the E3 or even the "underwhelming" last pick. Digimon, Soul Calibur, and Contra certainly have their merits and the first two have gone through a sort of surge in popularity in recent years. Bill Rizer I still say is likely because Konami has got nothing since base game and if Arthur's costume is anything to go by, Nintendo is still looking to represent more NES series. Yes Arthur only has a costume and spirit, but that is beside the point and people have been speculating Hayabusa, another NES icon, too.
I don't see the others having a realistic chance honestly. Danganronpa shockingly is still not on the Switch. I personally subscribe to the idea that third parties will not get multiple characters in the same pass, so I don't think Master Chief is happening, even if he is the type of character that would break this fan rule. I don't see Nintendo approaching Sony for a character, Crypto is too niche (Hopefully the teased sequel will be on the Switch so people can try out the games), and Doomguy got deconfirmed in an interview.
The safest person on my wishlist is Adol. Long legacy, consistent releases going strong to this day, and an easy-to-access developer. He's by far the most stable of my wants; No grey areas, no confusing "Well actually" footnotes in his bio, nothing. We just have to hope Nintendo goes for Falcom and goes for Ys over Trails... Though, honestly, I'm beginning to think Estelle has a better shot than he does.
Reimu is a complete wild card. She's practically built on "Well yes, but actually no" situations. The official games are available worldwide, but they're not translated, but ZUN lets the fans whip up their own translation within a couple days of release anyways. There's only one official Touhou game on the Switch, but there's a lot of fangames anyone can play. ZUN doesn't have many ties to Nintendo, but he's really easy to work with and Nintendo will supposedly support him if he ports EoSD to the Switch. I really have no idea where she stands and the only thing I can do is just sit back and pray.
Lloyd is in a similar boat, thanks to the Mii Costume. Tales is a big series and Bamco's working on the game, but all the returning Miis have come back and Bamco hasn't added a character since Pac-Man. I'm also just left hoping for this one.
Bandana Dee's a maybe, but I'm not betting on it. DLC just doesn't favor settings that already have a lot of presence in the game; Three Houses had nothing, ARMS and XC2 didn't have a stage or a fighter, and FF7 was just in a sorry state before Sephiroth. Modern Kirby just isn't too distinct from Kirby as a whole, and Nintendo doesn't have as much incentive to add Bandana Dee because of it.
I honestly only have two characters I truly desire in Smash Bros being Axel Stone and Sgt. Cortez. Crash Bandicoot is a close third pick.
I don't really expect Axel Stone to get in to the game at this point but Terry Bogard kind of scratches that itch.
Meanwhile Sgt. Cortez...
Alright I'm going to talk seriously about Cortez for a moment here, I do have a few interesting tid bits of information to share that correlate with Fighter Pass 2, Keep in mind that this is entirely speculative, it may all be coincidence and I'm not saying Cortez is incredibly likely because of this. Smash Bros is pretty much a last resort grasp at straws reach if nothing leads to a new TimeSplitters game.
Free Radical’s time-traveling shooter is coming back
www.polygon.com
In August of 2018, THQ Nordic acquires the TimeSplitters franchise. Too late for Fighter Pass 1 though, that much is obvious but not too late for Fighter Pass 2.
In exactly 1 year in August 2019, THQ Nordic hires TimeSplitters Co-Creator Steve Ellis to "help plot the future course for the franchise". Interesting choice of words as that doesn't directly point to a game being made. Sakurai normally gathers input from series creators for when he gets his team to design smash characters.
Then there is also the tweet that Steve Ellis made himself.
If you are reading this, you're probably looking for news about #TimeSplitters. I don't have any just yet. Watch this space. But not too frequently or you'll go mad. Also, I don't use Twitter much.
He explains what will happen if you read this tweet too frequently. However, he never said don't read way too deep into it so I will do just that. His choice of words are very strange. No news just yet? Watch this space? August 2020 has come and passed with nothing new to note during the prime of Fighter Pass 2. Complete and utter radio silence on the front. What could he be doing with TimeSplitters? Only time will tell.
Some minor things here to include is the Smash 2 poll.
While this does not mention Sgt. Cortez specifically mostly because Cortez wasn't even conceived at this point in time, it does mention James Bond from the Goldeneye 007 video game which was made by Rare. Some employees from Rare disbanded in 1999 to form the now defunct company, Free Radical design who made the TimeSplitters series. Keep in mind that James Bond is the last character on this list who is currently not represented in Smash Bros in any form. Yes the proximity mine exists but since Brawl, it has lost all of it's former identity as a Goldeneye weapon and is now considered a Smash original item. It is impossible for James Bond to be in Smash while Joanna Dark has been beaten by Banjo & Kazooie and Steve for a Microsoft rep. Even if another Microsoft rep is on the table, it will most likely be Master Chief. Since TimeSplitters is the spiritual successor to both Goldeneye and Perfect Dark, Cortez can take the reins as the undisputed Goldeneye 007 stand in and become the "heir apparent to Goldeneye", as was said by Electronic Gaming Monthly on the American cover art of TimeSplitters 2. However this is assuming that Nintendo even pays attention to this list as it's more than two decades old.
...but we have been getting lots of Fire Emblem and Pokemon characters since Smash 4 and we did get Banjo & Kazooie so who's to say they aren't paying attention to this list? /s
Lastly there is also the fact that TimeSplitters 2 was released in Japan on the PS2 under the name TimeSplitter: Invaders of history so Cortez has got Japan covered there. Just don't ask me about sales figures.
So that is pretty much where I stand with Sgt. Cortez in Smash. Again this is nothing to write home about but it explains why I'm driven to believe in Cortez for Fighter Pass 2. I don't just use him as my "funny haha meme dude says Time to Split". It's also got a bit of deluded insanity to it. Who knows? Maybe I do have Time Travelling capabilities and Cortez is on his way as we speak.
But really, all I am trying to say is that it's...
Worse, actually. After Lunatea, he's still being dragged to another dream world, trapped in eternal slumber...
At least Banjo and Kazooie have their house and friends to keep them company while Rare does whatever Rare does. Klonoa doesn't, because the universe won't let him.
Honestly kinda disappointed. Crash is "not my thing but I recognize they're a big deal," which most of Ultimate's roster has been for me, to the extreme; I know Crash is iconic and important but he's just not interesting to me in terms of design or moveset potential even after seeing at least two different concepts.
As for Hayabusa...he's not as big a name as Crash, and I'd like something a little more interesting than just "ninja with elemental attacks."
My first game was Super Mario Land, so both Mario and Daisy could count.
Star Fox: Assault and Super Mario Sunshine were also very early in my time playing games, so there's the SF characters and Bowser Jr.
Getting a Contra rep as our "shooter character" would actually be extremely apropos. It wouldn't be another Microsoft rep like Chief would be, Nintendo/Sakurai wouldn't have to consider the over-the-top violence and references to literal Hell that Doomslayer would bring, and it's as classic and influential a run-and-gun as you could get.
It would certainly be a...um...bold choice to add as DLC at this stage in the game, but I can actually see Nintendo considering it over the other shooter franchises we've talked about.
They cannot cause the same amount of salt as Byleth. These aren't characters from a series considered overrepresented by the time Smash 4's DLC was ending.
Is relevant and has the Contra Anniversary Collection on Switch to introduce modern audiences to the series.
Konami seems to be easy to work with if the enormous amount of Castlevania content is anything to go by and while they don't seem to be producing games themselves these days, rather they are starting to license them out to other companies, they are still around and have a good relationship with Nintendo. So their door is still open for Nintendo.
Contra has zero representation while Metal Gear and especially Castlevania have plentiful content so Bill Rizer is arguably next up in Konami's library to get a character.
Contra would actually fit in as an E3 reveal. It sounds unrealistic, but think about it. Contra is a shooter, which is a genre popular in the West, and it inspired future shooters. And while I don't see eye-to-eye with this idea, if you subscribe to the theory that the E3 pick will appeal to western audiences but still be smaller than Steve/Sephiroth, Contra would fit in then.
Contra would also fit in with being the last character. Contra is certainly recognizable and has a fanbase, but it's still more low-key than other third parties which would make it fit in with the "underwhelming" final choice.
And in general, DLC has been surprises and not many people are expecting Contra so yeah it would be surprising.
Is relevant and has the Contra Anniversary Collection on Switch to introduce modern audiences to the series.
Konami seems to be easy to work with if the enormous amount of Castlevania content is anything to go by and while they don't seem to be producing games themselves these days, rather they are starting to license them out to other companies, they are still around and have a good relationship with Nintendo. So their door is still open for Nintendo.
Contra has zero representation while Metal Gear and especially Castlevania have plentiful content so Bill Rizer is arguably next up in Konami's library to get a character.
Contra would actually fit in as an E3 reveal. It sounds unrealistic, but think about it. Contra is a shooter, which is a genre popular in the West, and it inspired future shooters. And while I don't see eye-to-eye with this idea, if you subscribe to the theory that the E3 pick will appeal to western audiences but still be smaller than Steve/Sephiroth, Contra would fit in then.
Contra would also fit in with being the last character. Contra is certainly recognizable and has a fanbase, but it's still more low-key than other third parties which would make it fit in with the "underwhelming" final choice.
And in general, DLC has been surprises and not many people are expecting Contra so yeah it would be surprising.
The main issue with Contra in regards to being the "shooter rep", is the fact that the game series isn't a first person shooter - which is the most popular variant of shooting games. Contra has its own merits, of course, but I don't think it checks many of the same boxes as Master Chief or Doomguy, the frontrunner legacy FPS choices.
I want a lot of obscure or impossible characters but if I were to narrow it down to those with a solid chance:
Phoenix Wright
Lloyd Irving
Chosen Undead
Adol or Rean
Sol Badguy
Crash Bandicoot
Arle
The main issue with Contra in regards to being the "shooter rep", is the fact that the game series isn't a first person shooter - which is the most popular variant of shooting games. Contra has its own merits, of course, but I don't think it checks many of the same boxes as Master Chief or Doomguy, the frontrunner legacy FPS choices.
Normally you would have a point. But the problem is that both Master Chief and Doomguy have major obstacles in their way.
Microsoft has a character in this pass and while it's possible they could get Chief as well, it's looking unlikely, especially since they intentionally put the Microsoft characters in different passes. For Doomguy, he got deconfirmed in an interview last year. Not to mention Contra has a legacy too, as I just stated (It paved the way for shooters like Metal Slug and Cuphead, both of which are in Smash).
And I say this as someone who really wants Master Chief and Doomguy too.
Normally you would have a point. But the problem is that both Master Chief and Doomguy have major obstacles in their way.
Microsoft has a character in this pass and while it's possible they could get Chief as well, it's looking unlikely, especially since they intentionally put the Microsoft characters in different passes. For Doomguy, he got deconfirmed in an interview last year. Not to mention Contra has a legacy too, as I just stated (It paved the way for shooters like Metal Slug and Cuphead, both of which are in Smash).
And I say this as someone who really wants Master Chief and Doomguy too.
Not disagreeing with any of that, but I was just stating that Contra wouldn't really be a "shooter rep" so much as he'd be a "retro rep". Even something like "random Call of Duty soldier" would be a better representative of modern shooters. Personally I think both Chief and Doomguy have a shot still, but that's not really relevant.
Not disagreeing with any of that, but I was just stating that Contra wouldn't really be a "shooter rep" so much as he'd be a "retro rep". Even something like "random Call of Duty soldier" would be a better representative of modern shooters. Personally I think both Chief and Doomguy have a shot still, but that's not really relevant.
I think SharkLord said it best. Contra would be more of a run-and-gun rep/retro rep, which is it's own niche. But yeah I do understand what you are saying.
At this point, how many of your most wanteds do you think have a solid chance?
My top 10 most wanted characters are:
Crash
Phoenix
Doomguy
Monokuma
Agumon
Master Chief
Kratos
Crypto
Nightmare
Bill Rizer
Out of all those, I think Crash and Phoenix have the most realistic shot. Yes, I still think Phoenix is likely because well let's say that he is CP10 or CP11, Nintendo and Capcom would have negotiated for multiple Capcom characters as Mii costumes, but Capcom asked that the MH costumes and Arthur be pushed earlier to CP9 to coincide with MH Rise and GnG Resurrection. I think that is a likely scenario. As for Crash, his merits have been stated many times so I won't go there.
The only other characters that have a decent shot are Agumon, Nightmare, and Bill Rizer. I could see any of these being the E3 or even the "underwhelming" last pick. Digimon, Soul Calibur, and Contra certainly have their merits and the first two have gone through a sort of surge in popularity in recent years. Bill Rizer I still say is likely because Konami has got nothing since base game and if Arthur's costume is anything to go by, Nintendo is still looking to represent more NES series. Yes Arthur only has a costume and spirit, but that is beside the point and people have been speculating Hayabusa, another NES icon, too.
I don't see the others having a realistic chance honestly. Danganronpa shockingly is still not on the Switch. I personally subscribe to the idea that third parties will not get multiple characters in the same pass, so I don't think Master Chief is happening, even if he is the type of character that would break this fan rule. I don't see Nintendo approaching Sony for a character, Crypto is too niche (Hopefully the teased sequel will be on the Switch so people can try out the games), and Doomguy got deconfirmed in an interview.