Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[chocolatejr9]

...Honest answer? No ******* clue.

It's not just "Niko doesn't fight", it's that the biggest draw of OneShot is being insanely meta. I presume that aspect would be translated somehow, but I have no idea how they'd even begin to approach that concept.

I mean, I GUESS they could make a moveset where the player is LITERALLY GOD, but I don't know how that would work...

Anyway, Kirby!

The weekend is here...DEPLOY KIRBY!!! pic.twitter.com/9bqUlXe7cg

— Nintendo of America (@NintendoAmerica) March 6, 2021

 

[Paraster]

...Since we're on the topic, I wanna ask something: people always put one of the mercs at the front, but how would one go about representing all classes (a staple of the game) into one moveset?

Sounds like a massive headache imo, but I'm curious to see what fans think.

Frankly, I don't think that sort of thing is feasible unless you wanted to literally add every class as their own fighters.

You could maybe give Miss Pauling a bunch of their weapons, but...that wouldn't really reflect TF2's gameplay outside of the randomizer mod (same issue if you wanted to make a summoning playstyle) and Miss Pauling is a pure NPC.

Even packing them into a multi-fighter would be nigh-impossible; can you imagine if Pokemon Trainer had NINE Pokemon with different attacks?

The most plausible way to represent all the classes at ALL would be to give them cameos (perhaps as hazards) on a TF2 stage and put all of them on a DLC Spirit Board.

 

[BlondeLombax]

...Since we're on the topic, I wanna ask something: people always put one of the mercs at the front, but how would one go about representing all classes (a staple of the game) into one moveset?

This doesn't apply to all of them, but a while back, I sort of envisioned a team dynamic similar to the mercs' appearance in Sonic & All Stars Racing Transformed, where you'd control one merc at a time in a tag team of 3. Keeping in line with the offense/defense/support triangle, I always envisioned the team being Scout/Demoman/Medic. I'm no good at making movesets, though, so you'd have to make your own for each one.

The most plausible way to represent all the classes at ALL would be to give them cameos (perhaps as hazards) on a TF2 stage and put all of them on a DLC Spirit Board.

That just raises further questions; which map would make the best fit for a TF2 stage? 2Fort? Upward? Heck, maybe even Hydro?! There's plenty of spots on the official maps that SORA can pull from, it's just hard to pick out which one.

 

[Dinoman96]

Gravel Pit is pretty much asking to be a Smash Bros. stage tbh

 

[Paraster]

That just raises further questions; which map would make the best fit for a TF2 stage? 2Fort? Upward? Heck, maybe even Hydro?! There's plenty of spots on the official maps that SORA can pull from, it's just hard to pick out which one.

There are a lot of options, but I'm partial towards Gravelpit, specifically the huge satellite dish tower where the final point is. (Lol got 'd)

 

[Mamboo07]

Gravel Pit is pretty much asking to be a Smash Bros. stage tbh

I feel like 2Fort would be more better.

 

[Paraster]

I feel like 2Fort would be more better.

I agree that 2Fort is more iconic, but I can't wrap my head around how it'd be designed. Would it use just one of the forts? The bridge? Would all parts be crammed into a smaller space, viewed from the side? If so, would the blast zones past the balconies be blocked by the walls?

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

....uh, no?

Think of the numbers as percentages. So, for example, if someone says "3/10", they're basically saying "30% chance". Their numbers check out.

There are two slots available. One possible set of probabilities is two characters with probabily 1 (10/10) each, i.e., they are certain. Whatever the possible characters, their combined probabilities cannot exceed 2. (Probability technically can't exceed 1, but I'm doing it this way to keep this shorter.)

Here are Pillow's numbers:

• Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney) [5/10]
• Kiryu Kazuma (Yakuza) [7/10]
• Master Chief (Halo) [7/10]
• Doomslayer (Doom) [6/10]
• Reimu (Touhou) [3/10]
• Haruka Amami (Idolmaster) [3/10]
• Hatsune Miku (Vocaloid) [1/10]
• 2B (Nier: Automata)[7/10]
• Zero (Drakengard) [1/10]
• Alisa (God Eater) [1/10]

They sum to 42/10, which is greater than 2.

 

[Shroob]

There are two slots available. One possible set of probabilities is two characters with probabily 1 (10/10) each, i.e., they are certain. Whatever the possible characters, their combined probabilities cannot exceed 2. (Probability technically can't exceed 1, but I'm doing it this way to keep this shorter.)

Here are Pillow's numbers:

• Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney) [5/10]
• Kiryu Kazuma (Yakuza) [7/10]
• Master Chief (Halo) [7/10]
• Doomslayer (Doom) [6/10]
• Reimu (Touhou) [3/10]
• Haruka Amami (Idolmaster) [3/10]
• Hatsune Miku (Vocaloid) [1/10]
• 2B (Nier: Automata)[7/10]
• Zero (Drakengard) [1/10]
• Alisa (God Eater) [1/10]

They sum to 42/10, which is greater than 2.

.....you're doing them by a case by case base, not a lump some.


Let me explain it a bit easier.


"I give Reimu(Touhou) a 30% chance of likelihood." ~ In this scenario, they think Reimu has a 30% shot, meaning they don't think she's likely.

"I give 2B(Nier) a 70% chance of likelihood." ~ In this scenario, they think 2B has a 70% shot, so slightly above average.


The fact that there's 2 slots left does not factor into this, it's more or less saying "This character I want is likely" "I want this character but they seem unlikely" "This character I want isn't happening", and so on and so forth. The numbers in the front of the 10 are not to be added together, they're stand ins for what that person feels to be their likelihood out of 100.


Understand now or no?

 

[Pillow]

Your numbers add up to more than 20/10, and there are only two spots left in the pass. That means you ****ed up, or they aren't representative of the probabilities they would normally denote.

I am very interested in seeing what kind of calculations you did before coming to this conclusion

edit: oh there it is

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

.....you're doing them by a case by case base, not a lump some.


Let me explain it a bit easier.


"I give Reimu(Touhou) a 30% chance of likelihood." ~ In this scenario, they think Reimu has a 30% shot, meaning they don't think she's likely.

"I give 2B(Nier) a 70% chance of likelihood." ~ In this scenario, they think 2B has a 70% shot, so slightly above average.


The fact that there's 2 slots left does not factor into this, it's more or less saying "This character I want is likely" "I want this character but they seem unlikely" "This character I want isn't happening", and so on and so forth. The numbers in the front of the 10 are not to be added together, they're stand ins for what that person feels to be their likelihood out of 100.


Understand now or no?

Probability doesn't work like that. The probability of the sum of all possible outcomes must be 1.

 

[Shroob]

Probability doesn't work like that. If there are x possible outcomes, the probability of the sum of all possible outcomes must be 1.

You're trying to tie extremely deep probability logic to teens and young adults speculating on what they feel like the chances are of characters getting into a children's party game.


All our numbers are made up and without actual logic behind it, it's just what every person feels/wants to happen, you don't need to apply extremely complex logic to it.

 

[Pillow]

Probability doesn't work like that. The probability of the sum of all possible outcomes must be 1.

I know you’re trying to flex the knowledge you learned from your undergraduate Stats class, but you’re missing the point entirely. I was never trying to actually calculate their chances, because it’s actually impossible to do so. The numbers were individual subjective ratings I gave for what I believed to be each of their separate chances of becoming playable in Smash.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

You're trying to tie extremely deep probability logic to teens and young adults speculating on what they feel like the chances are of characters getting into a children's party game.


All our numbers are made up and without actual logic behind it, it's just what every person feels/wants to happen, you don't need to apply extremely complex logic to it.

All you have to understand is that probabilities for all possible outcomes of an event sum to 1.

 

[Shroob]

All you have to understand is that probabilities for all possible outcomes of an event sum to 1.

If I ever took any further school past high school, I'd probably understand what that meant.


Instead, I'll say I give Master Chief a 10/10 chance of happening, with my only logic behind it being because I want it to happen.


You're trying to be super big brain here, when the majority of people aren't using math, they're using their gut and own desires.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

I know you’re trying to flex the knowledge you learned from your undergraduate Stats class, but you’re missing the point entirely. I was never trying to actually calculate their chances, because it’s actually impossible to do so. The numbers were individual subjective ratings I gave for what I believed to be each of their separate chances of becoming playable in Smash.

I'm not flexing anything. I gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed that you meant to be taken seriously. I charitably asked you what the numbers meant. Playing fast and loose with ratings like this is one reason RTC is a ****show.

 

[Shroob]

I'm not flexing anything. I gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed that you meant to be taken seriously. I charitably asked you what the numbers meant. Playing fast and loose with ratings like this is one reason RTC is a ****show.

You're on a board filled with kids.

Why are you expecting deep, scientific analysis on a Super Smash Brothers forum where the average age range is between 13-30?

 

[MBRedboy31]

Probability doesn't work like that. The probability of the sum of all possible outcomes must be 1.

Realistically, yes. However, you’d then need to factor in every character that has any chance at all of getting in, which is too impractical for a casual conversation like this.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

You're on a board filled with kids.

Why are you expecting deep, scientific analysis on a Super Smash Brothers forum where the average age range is between 13-30?

I've tried not to be rude, but a 13yo should be able to understand this basic math.

 

[PLATINUM7]

You're trying to tie extremely deep probability logic to teens and young adults speculating on what they feel like the chances are of characters getting into a children's party game.


All our numbers are made up and without actual logic behind it, it's just what every person feels/wants to happen, you don't need to apply extremely complex logic to it.

It's primary school maths dude, it's not extremely deep.

Trying to exaggerate with greater than 100% chances or negative chances is about as sensible as saying literally in place of figuratively.

I'm probably just pointing this out since I'll be teaching maths soon but hey, maths laws are laws.

 

[Pillow]

I'm not flexing anything. I gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed that you meant to be taken seriously. I charitably asked you what the numbers meant. Playing fast and loose with ratings like this is one reason RTC is a ****show.

Oh, don't worry. You seem like a popular guy with lots of friends, so in my heart I knew you were being charitable. But sadly my brain is too smooth to comprehend your big words.

 

[SKX31]

Actually, yeah, let's play this game: Who is your "first game rep" and do they have playable representation in Ultimate yet?

(hey, if nothing else, it shakes up the conversation a tiny bit today haha)

Beyond education games and DOS games on the old 3.1 computers my grandpa managed to scrounge up (which are never getting in, lets be real) - the first game I sank my teeth into for real was StarCraft I.

And no, they're not in. But I'd really like that.

So, after playing P/M for a bit, I think I would definitely make Sakurai disappointed...

Because I can't choose. I like them both as characters.

The two have joined and as my "simple, dumb fun picks" in DLC and I love them for it. Though I have to say I'm worried it won't stay that way for long, as their skill ceiling might be one of the highest in all of Smash. I think we'll see some crazy **** being pulled at tournaments.

I have a question, though: what is Mythra's speed classification? I swear she legit feels almost as fast as Sonic, maybe even a bit faster in the air.

It's been a few months since I've last played Sonic tho, so I could be wrong.

shes sanic.



Nah seriously, Mythra is apparently the 5th fastest on the ground with a 2.41 run speed (between and ), and she apparently possesses the fastest initial dash at 2.45 (edging out the previous fastest initial dash - , with 0,03).

is seemingly the 6th slowest, between and in both initial dash (1.69) and run speed (1.38).

(Saying "apparently" etc. in case ssbwiki's off the mark, but wouldn't surprise me if ssbwiki is right. See here for a bit more info + video comparision.)

And as for ridicolous stuff, well, Leffen did discover a nasty Foresight setup off stage that can counter Up Bs with a hitbox. While I don't think Pyra / Mythra will wind up anywhere near broken (their recoveries are not the greatest in the world and their disadvantage state is not the best either), it's evident that the two have some major sauce to them. Mythra seems to be unable to KO anything outside of her setups or a F-Smash read, but OTOH she can juggle and pressure really bloody well. Pyra might have trouble with getting whiff punished, but she has an projectile / Chakram that can force peoples' hands and can follow up on Myhtra's pressure.

I'm not flexing anything. I gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed that you meant to be taken seriously. I charitably asked you what the numbers meant. Playing fast and loose with ratings like this is one reason RTC is a ****show.

Smash Speculation's been a ****show since at least the Brawl days precisely because most people here are going with their gut feelings and what their most wanteds are. You shouldn't expect much logic in these cases, or rather, you should expect "logic" grounded in hopes, dreams and fears. Illogical stuff.

It's coming off as if you're inserting a square into a round hole.

 

[Shroob]

I've tried not to be rude, but a 13yo should be able to understand this basic math.

Because it doesn't matter.

No one here's trying to be super correct and precise in their guesses, we're all just shooting the **** to pass the time.

It's primary school maths dude, it's not extremely deep.

Trying to exaggerate with greater than 100% chances or negative chances is about as sensible as saying literally in place of figuratively.

I'm probably just pointing this out since I'll be teaching maths soon but hey, maths laws are laws.

I never learned probability in my school.

My school was a literal dive tho thanks to living in the countryside and having to merge grades into a single class.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Realistically, yes. However, you’d then need to factor in every character that has any chance at all of getting in, which is too impractical for a casual conversation like this.

The vast majority of characters have miniscule chances. Perhaps a few dozen have chances ≥1%. I don't see what's so impractical about this. I think people just don't like the reality that no character has a very high chance (I wouldn't give any more than 30%, certainly.).

 

[Sigran101]

Kinda disheartened that I never got anyone I wanted as DLC, whether going in or that I gained support for over the years

I just want ONE okay

I wish I could swap a character with you. I felt this way a lot during smash 4, and it sucks. I got so spoiled with 7 out of my top 10 getting in that now I just feel bad that others didn't get so lucky. I'd gladly give up one of my most wanted that got in for Elma or Octoling if I could (just not Joker, Ridley or K Rool okay)

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I wish I could swap a character with you. I felt this way a lot during smash 4, and it sucks. I got so spoiled with 7 out of my top 10 getting in that now I just feel bad that others didn't get so lucky. I'd gladly give up one of my most wanted that got in for Elma or Octoling if I could (just not Joker, Ridley or K Rool okay)

I only got one character I truly wanted in Smash 4, and that was Shulk. Then again the only other characters I wanted at the time were Fiora and Neku (and Snake to return). Snake returned the next game... the other two still aren’t playable.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Beyond education games and DOS games on the old 3.1 computers my grandpa managed to scrounge up (which are never getting in, lets be real) - the first game I sank my teeth into for real was StarCraft I.

And no, they're not in. But I'd really like that.



shes sanic.



Nah seriously, Mythra is apparently the 5th fastest on the ground with a 2.41 run speed (between and ), and she apparently possesses the fastest initial dash at 2.45 (edging out previously fastest initial dash - , with 0,03).

is seemingly the 6th slowest, between and in both initial dash (1.69) and run speed (1.38).

(Saying "apparently" etc. in case ssbwiki's off the mark, but wouldn't surprise me if ssbwiki is right. See here for a bit more info + video comparision.)

And as for ridicolous stuff, well, Leffen did discover a nasty Foresight setup off stage that can counter Up Bs with a hitbox. While I don't think Pyra / Mythra will wind up anywhere near broken (their recoveries are not the greatest in the world and their disadvantage state is not the best either), it's evident that the two have some major sauce to them. Mythra seems to be unable to KO anything outside of her setups or a F-Smash read, but OTOH she can juggle and pressure really bloody well. Pyra might have trouble with getting whiff punished, but she has an projectile / Chakram that can force peoples' hands and can follow up on Myhtra's pressure.



Smash Speculation's been a ****show since at least the Brawl days precisely because most people here are going with their gut feelings and what their most wanteds are. You shouldn't expect much logic in these cases, or rather, you should expect "logic" grounded in hopes, dreams and fears. Illogical stuff.

It's coming off as if you're inserting a square into a round hole.

Why do you spend so much time talking about business trends and shareholder percentages if you don't have higher hopes for this thread?

 

[MooMew64]

Y'all were talkin' Niko OneShot without me? The site's certified OneShot guy?

I see how it is.

...Real talk, I'll have to share with y'all later how this cat would work.

 

[Pillow]

It's primary school maths dude, it's not extremely deep.

Trying to exaggerate with greater than 100% chances or negative chances is about as sensible as saying literally in place of figuratively.

I'm probably just pointing this out since I'll be teaching maths soon but hey, maths laws are laws.

Hey man, I'll have you know that no one has ever arrested me for my inability to find derivatives OR do basic arithmetic. Here in America, nobody can force me to do math. That's downright unconstitutional.

The vast majority of characters have miniscule chances. Perhaps a few dozen have chances ≥1%. I don't see what's so impractical about this. I think people just don't like the reality that no character has a very high chance (I wouldn't give any more than 30%, certainly.).

Yeah, and where are you getting your data from my guy? Because I'm a certified math Wizard and I can tell you with 152% certainty that Sephiroth and Steve are probably playable in Smash.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Y'all were talkin' Niko OneShot without me? The site's certified OneShot guy?


View attachment 306103

I see how it is.

...Real talk, I'll have to share with y'all later how this cat would work.

We had a certified OneShot guy? Huh, the more you know...

Anyway, now that I think about it, I AM curious how exactly Niko would work. Care to share?

 

[Idon]

Yeah? Well I am 100% done with this conversation

 

[Shroob]

Yeah? Well I am 100% done with this conversation

Now this is a percentage I can get behind.

 

[DarthEnderX]

At this point, how many of your most wanteds do you think have a solid chance?

My top 10 most wanted characters are:

My current top 10 are:

1. Ryu Hayabusa [Ninja Gaiden]
2. Bill Rizer/Lance Bean [Contra]
3. Arthur [Ghosts ‘n Goblins]
4. Kunio/Riki [River City]
5. SV-001 Metal Slug [Metal Slug]
6. Bub/Bob [Bubble Bobble]
7. Jill Valentine [Resident Evil]
8. Morrigan [Darkstalkers]
9. Nightmare [Soul Calibur]
10. Kazuma Kiryu [Yakuza]

Of those, I think only Hayabusa, Nightmare and...MAYBE Kiryu have a "solid" chance.

 

[Powerman293]

The only thing from Figure Theory I'd like is if someone put together a comprehensive video on which Smash frontrunners have figures or not. It'd still be a useful video once FP2 is over.

 

[Idon]

The only thing from Figure Theory I'd like is if someone put together a comprehensive video on which Smash frontrunners have figures or not. It'd still be a useful video once FP2 is over.

The answer is all of them. Practically every piece of even semi-popular media has merchandising of some kind.

Even SMT.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Gravel Pit is pretty much asking to be a Smash Bros. stage tbh

If they did anything it would be 2fort for better and for worse. Who knows, might be less stale mate inducing than in TF2.

 

[Golden Icarus]

Ignore this.

 

[MooMew64]

We had a certified OneShot guy? Huh, the more you know...

Anyway, now that I think about it, I AM curious how exactly Niko would work. Care to share?

Honestly, writing up a Smash concept for Niko sounds like so much fun to me that I wanna spend some time on it and really flesh it out. Like, make some doodles of moves and stuff.

Rough initial ideas, though: You could capitalize on the concept of the "player" having influence over the game in some way. Niko's moves could involve summoning various NPCs similar to Duck Hunt's Down-B, or placing different distortion blocks that appear in the game for...spoiler reasons. He could also incorporate the "sun" (the lightbulb Niko carries) to maybe blind opponents and stun them similar to Mewtwo's Down-B.

The Final Smash could involve Niko plus the endgame trio of Prototype, Rue, and Cedric gathering around the sun and casting a bright shining light in a cool cinematic that blasts away opponents and heals allies in team matches. It could be called "Blessings of the Sun", or something like that.

Yeah, now that I'm thinking about it, I honestly really wanna take the time to do a full write-up on Niko now: He has like, absolutely no chance as their game will forever be PC locked because of the way OneShot works (it just flat out wouldn't work on consoles), but it's a fun discussion piece and good fuel for a potential Rivals of Aether moveset, lol.

 

[TwiceEXE]

I mean, if you want to talk the actual probabilities, you should probably say each character you list has a 0% chance. Because currently there are 2 characters with a 100% chance and every other character in the universe has a fat zero. Just because you can't observe the probability yet doesn't change the cold, hard truth of the universe. And the odds of guessing the characters is low enough that it doesn't matter.

So basically, my most wanteds have a 0% chance, your most wanteds have a 0% chance, and Fire Emblem has a 100% chance.

 

[Shroob]

I mean, if you want to talk the actual probabilities, you should probably say each character you list has a 0% chance. Because currently there are 2 characters with a 100% chance and every other character in the universe has a fat zero. Just because you can't observe the probability yet doesn't change the cold, hard truth of the universe. And the odds of guessing the characters is low enough that it doesn't matter.

So basically, my most wanteds have a 0% chance, your most wanteds have a 0% chance, and Fire Emblem has a 100% chance.

This is how Lyn wins.