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Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

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Þe 1 → Way

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Seeing this thread talk about probability sure does mess with my head.

The standard x/10 rating most of us use on Smash Boards doesn’t operate like it does in traditional mathematics. In traditional mathematics, It all must equal 100% (or 10/10 or 1)
It is essentially impossible to apply this to our speculation. As all of our numbers would be in decimals or we would only be able have 10 fighter predictions.

Its just a way of saying how likely you think something is.
Impossible, Improbable, Possible, Likely, Lock.
That is another way of saying it. However, assigning it 1/10 (or 1/5 in this case) makes the process easier to read and type. So instead of saying a character is impossible, I’d give the character a 1/5.

No, its not how math works. But it works well if you don’t think about it too hard and is easy to write.

Now then, I can officially pivot this post into why Pyramid Head is an objective 5/5 in terms of likelihood. In this essay I will-
 
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StrangeKitten

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At this point, how many of your most wanteds do you think have a solid chance?
Let's see, my top 10 would be:
Eggman
Gruntilda
Geno
Crash
Ryu Hayabusa
Spyro
Sora
Dante
Gen 8 Pokemon
The Hunter (Monster Hunter)

Gruntilda, Geno, Gen 8 mon, and Monster Hunter all have pretty big things going against their chances. I'd also be surprised to see Eggman this pass, though thankfully he's been picking up popularity as of late, so I have hopes for him for the next game. The rest all have a decent shot.
 

SpecterFlower

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Seeing this thread talk about probability sure does mess with my head.

The standard x/10 rating most of us use on Smash Boards doesn’t operate like it does in traditional mathematics. In traditional mathematics, It all must equal 100% (or 10/10 or 1)
It is essentially impossible to apply this to our speculation. As all of our numbers would be in decimals or we would only be able have 10 fighter predictions.

Its just a way of saying how likely you think something is.
Impossible, Improbable, Possible, Likely, Lock.
That is another way of saying it. However, assigning it 1/10 (or 1/5 in this case) makes the process easier to read and type. So instead of saying a character is impossible, I’d give the character a 1/5.

No, its not how math works. But it works well if you don’t think about it too hard and is easy to write.

Now then, I can officially pivot this post into why Pyramid Head is an objective 5/5 in terms of likelihood. In this essay I will-
i see no problem with working with decimals, the only problem is if we drop set's of ten we have to start rating them out of 0.17 or something.

i mean imo 2b has a (going by x/y) 10x+3y=45 (1) 2x+3=9 (2) chance of getting in.
 

CapitaineCrash

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At this point, how many of your most wanteds do you think have a solid chance?
Rhythm heaven and Porky at this point are just pipe dream and I never thought they had any chances to show as dlc in the first place. I still think they have 0 chance. Doom slayer was pretty much disconfirmed by Bethesda so I also have no hope for him (maybe he can still get a mii costume).

Phoenix Wright I'm unsure. I think it could happen, but the big wave of Capcom mii we just got might be the last Capcom content from Ultimate. It would be a bit sad if Ace Attorney end up with nothing at all, but I'm not that surprised considering that's it's not a huge franchise and it was dormant for some time.

Finally there's Layton, which I don't have many hopes for, considering that his franchise also got nothing recently (Aside from Katrielle game which wasn't very succesful). It's still weird that Level 5 got nothing at all in Ultimate, maybe Layton will end up being a Mii.

So really, I'm not expecting any of my most wanted at this point (Wright probably have the best chance of all of them). To be fair Steve was one of my most wanted, so I this point I don't really care that much.
 

RoboFist

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The only thing from Figure Theory I'd like is if someone put together a comprehensive video on which Smash frontrunners have figures or not. It'd still be a useful video once FP2 is over.
I much prefer Plush Theory. It narrows down the pool a lot more than I thought and makes for a strange yet weirdly captivating video.

(dear lord no please this is not meant to be an actual theory do not take seriously)
 
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ZelDan

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to make things easier and quicker I'll just stick to my top 3 MW characters:

Isaac
Shovel Knight
Master Chief

I don't really think ATs are disconfirmations for FP2, so I do think Isaac and Shovel Knight have some extent of a chance. Seeing Steve make it into FP2 made me become more doubtful over Master Chief (Both being owned by Microsoft and all), but I supposed there's technically nothing saying a company cannot have more than 2 characters in a DLC wave or that Chief has no chance, so sure I'll still hold on to some hope for the Chief.

Now, do I think any of these characters are "likely?" Nope. Not at all. Granted, I don't think ANY character is likely at this point (seriously, there are dozens of characters with things going for them and only a measly 2 spots left, so...), but yeah, my MWs are not an exception.
 
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RoboFist

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Ayy I love this channel. Shame it seems like he hasn't uploaded in awhile.
I hope he does, man. The guy's the only "I talk about plush toys" person on youtube who doesn't come across as an absolute creep and actually puts in the research work.

On the other hand, I do only half-sarcastically blame him for my more irresponsible collecting habits lately...
 

cothero

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If i had to risk a bet, i'd probably go with Crash or another hype western character for an E3 reveal and Lloyd as the last fighter (which is very likely to happen as a second Bamco rep and a HUGELY popular character in japan).

A gen 8 Pokémon rep is also possible.

Unfortunately.
 
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Shroob

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If i had to risk a bet, i'd probably go with Crash or a hype western character for an E3 reveal and Lloyd as the last fighter (which is very likely to happen, as a second Bamco rep and a HUGELY popular character in japan).

A gen 8 Pokémon rep is also possible.

Unfortunately.
Lloyd isn't that popular in Japan, it's only recently that he came in 4th place in a Tales of Popularity poll, which is, afaik, the highest he's ever placed.

If you want a POPULAR Tales Of character, you go for the Tales of Vesperia MC, Yuri Lowenthall, who was soo popular that he was banned from popularity polls for always taking 1st place.
 

JustPlainDan

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At this point, how many of your most wanteds do you think have a solid chance?
Banjo-Kazooie already made it, so that leaves the following 9 characters:

Crash: Like a lot of other people, I feel like we get one more character from a platformer. Has been discussed to death, so I feel like I can’t say much else.

Dante: With MH getting Mii’d and RE being in a post launch spirit event, the door is open for him if Capcom isn’t out of the question.

Doomguy: Has sadly been deconfirmed.

Leon Kennedy: With him being my most wanted overall, I wanna believe that Min Min being added was a sign that more than one character would be upgraded from spirit to playable character. But if a 3rd pass doesn’t happen, he doesn’t happen, though Capcom has 2 other characters that I’d be excited for if nothing else.

Mortal Kombat rep: Yeah, we’ve seen some crazy reveals, but this an admitted longshot.

Paper Mario: Like Leon, was in a spirit event, so if there’s no FP3, no dice.

Phoenix Wright: Has about the same chance as Dante IMO, but if he gets Mii’d, I’d be OK with it, especially if Miles does as well and the Steel Samurai theme is included.

Rayman: Same chances as Crash. Because I have a bit more nostalgia with him, I’m kinda leaning towards Rayman being the platformer character I hope gets added, but I would also be very happy with Crash.

Sora: LOL
 

SharkLord

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Lloyd isn't that popular in Japan, it's only recently that he came in 4th place in a Tales of Popularity poll, which is, afaik, the highest he's ever placed.

If you want a POPULAR Tales Of character, you go for the Tales of Vesperia MC, Yuri Lowenthall, who was soo popular that he was banned from popularity polls for always taking 1st place.
That's for the Tales fanbase, though. What I'm curious about is how the Japanese Smash fandom feels about the Tales candidates. It's Nintendo's game, so I'd imagine they'd be looking at the fans of their own game, not Bandai-Namco's. So, do we have any polls from over there?
 

cothero

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Lloyd isn't that popular in Japan, it's only recently that he came in 4th place in a Tales of Popularity poll, which is, afaik, the highest he's ever placed.

If you want a POPULAR Tales Of character, you go for the Tales of Vesperia MC, Yuri Lowenthall, who was soo popular that he was banned from popularity polls for always taking 1st place.
Personally, i rather don't have any of those two, thanks.

Jokes aside, i'm very aware that Yuri is the most popular Tales character, but Lloyd is Sakurai's favourite pick for a Tales rep as he mentioned himself back in smash 4 (also the overall favourite Tales character of the majority smash players).

But i wouldn't be surprised if Yuri end up being the chosen one.
 
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Shroob

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That's for the Tales fanbase, though. What I'm curious about is how the Japanese Smash fandom feels about the Tales candidates. It's Nintendo's game, so I'd imagine they'd be looking at the fans of their own game, not Bandai-Namco's. So, do we have any polls from over there?


I think I saw Lloyd's head in that Japanese meme video I posted last week, so I assume that Lloyd's at least talked about somewhat over there.
 

SWSU

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For my Most Wanteds...

Tails: 5% Chance: I know he's a Mii Outfit, but considering he came out first with Joker, and it might have been decided on BEFORE they locked in the Concept of a Second Fighters Pass. I know its highly unlikely, but there's a chance.
Krystal: 0% Chance: I believe Assist Trophies Deconfirm 100%
Jill Valentine/Leon S Kennedy: 2% Chance: Similar to Tails, they were Early enough that I COULD see them escaping being Cut From FP2. However, unlike Tails who was just a reused Asset from Smash 4. The Spirits were a Brand New Addition, and I feel that hurts their chances more.
Shantae: 20% Chance: I don't think her spirit is a big killer for her chances. Since unlike others (Like Bandana Dee/Tails) Her Series is Relatively untouched Spiritwise, and COULD fill a Spirit Board. However, we just had a Female Fighter, and I don't think we're going to get another full one. Plus since she's more Indie, She'd likely have a better chance of being a Base Roster Character for the next game.
Crash Bandicoot: 75% Chance: As others have said. Schrodinger's Bandicoot. He's simultaneously the most likely person to make it in, but also just might not due to other reasons. Even if I doubt Activision being stingey is a killer (Since we got Hero AND Sephiroth from Square. Anything is possible) It could equally be just as possible they want another Anime Swordsman.
Tracer: 50% Chance: I feel she's being slept on and could very well be a Surprise Final Character ala Bayonetta. Even though I hear talk of Doom Slayer and Master Chief, Tracer and Overwatch just feel like they'd fit into Smash easier.
Sly Cooper: 5% Chance: Sony Character Nobody was asking for.
Ratchet: 5% Chance: Sony Character Nobody was asking for.
Cinderace: 60% Chance: I'm less sure of a Pokemon Rep now, but I thought Fire Emblem wasn't happening either. Could Happen
Meowth: 30% Chance: Sleeper Pick for Pokemon. Same Cons as Cinderace, but its likely they'd go for a Pure Gen 8 Mon.
 

SharkLord

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At the very least, we have a big Western Smash poll from recent years to go off of
So I checked back on the big SourceGaming poll, which, while not 100% accurate, is the most credible thing we really have, and out of the Tales characters...
  • Lloyd placed 23rd, with 263 votes
  • Yuri was 66th, with 56 votes
  • Velvet was 134th, with 25 votes
  • Colette and Ludger were tied for 543rd, with 2 votes
  • Alphen, Asbel, Luke, Rondoline, and Jude were one of the many in 727th place, with only a single vote each
So yeah. Not 100% accurate, but it's arguably the best we've got and it seems that Lloyd's far and away the most heavily-requested.

Some random extra trivia:
  • Lloyd got more votes than Heavy, Monster Hunter, Scorpion, and any Sonic rep
  • Yuri somehow got less votes than Klonoa, despite the latter being dead for a long while. I'm actually surprised that the little guy surpassed Yuri, or that he got into the top 50.
  • Velvet got less votes than G O K U, who is currently on his way to break into the houses of all you non-believers in full drip attire
  • Ludger was listed in 727th place twice because one guy typed in his full name and another guy left out the middle name.
So at the very least, Lloyd would appeal to the Western Smash fanbase. Again, not 100% accurate, but it at least shows a decently large chunk of the fanbase. I think it's worth keeping in mind. Again, though, we'll have to see how the Japanese fans feel. Tagging A Ayumi Tachibana , since they seem to be pretty knowledgeable on the interests of the Japanese Smash fanbase.
 

Shroob

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At the very least, we have a big Western Smash poll from recent years to go off of

So at the very least, Lloyd would appeal to the Western Smash fanbase. Again, not 100% accurate, but it at least shows a decently large chunk of the fanbase. I think it's worth keeping in mind. Again, though, we'll have to see how the Japanese fans feel. Tagging A Ayumi Tachibana , since they seem to be pretty knowledgeable on the interests of the Japanese Smash fanbase.
That's the thing though. Are the DLC characters meant to appeal to US, or to people who are already into those franchises as an incentive to check out Smash? Sometimes sure you get overlap, but from a business standpoint, doesn't it make more sense to advertise to a group that "could" be roped in rather than the group already invested?
 

DevaAshera

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That's for the Tales fanbase, though. What I'm curious about is how the Japanese Smash fandom feels about the Tales candidates. It's Nintendo's game, so I'd imagine they'd be looking at the fans of their own game, not Bandai-Namco's. So, do we have any polls from over there?
Actually, it makes more sense for Nintendo to pick the most popular Tales character, like they did with Cloud for Final Fantasy. You see, DLC helps bring in fans that wouldn't normally consider playing Super Smash Bros by bringing in a character they like, like with Cloud, Joker, Snake, Sonic, Ryu..pretty much any non-Nintendo character..They know Smash Fans would likely already have bought Smash and the Fighters Passes, they want to bring in more sales from outside their own fanbase.
There is also a lot of crossover and Tales of Vesperia is on Nintendo Switch now too.

Think of it similarly to how many people got into Soul Calibur thanks to Link appearing in Soul Calibur II that would otherwise not have likely got interested in the game.
 
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SpecterFlower

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If i had to risk a bet, i'd probably go with Crash or another hype western character for an E3 reveal and Lloyd as the last fighter (which is very likely to happen as a second Bamco rep and a HUGELY popular character in japan).

A gen 8 Pokémon rep is also possible.

Unfortunately.
I think Yuri is more likely but than again i prefer him over Llyod. but going by Japanese popularity Yuri wins easily, Symphonia is the biggest tales in the west but in japan it's Vesperia.
 

SharkLord

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That's the thing though. Are the DLC characters meant to appeal to US, or to people who are already into those franchises as an incentive to check out Smash? Sometimes sure you get overlap, but from a business standpoint, doesn't it make more sense to advertise to a group that "could" be roped in rather than the group already invested?
Well... It varies.
  • :ultjoker: was a hot new release, with little Nintendo connections. His main demographic is the PlayStation's playerbase.
  • :ulthero: heavily pushed DQ11S, especially in the West, but they also have massive Japanese appeal by virtue of being Dragon Quest
  • :ultbanjokazooie: was added because of the Western fanbase's extreme demand for him
  • :ult_terry: has appeal in places with strong arcade scenes like Japan and Latin America, but he's a smaller character than everyone else. He's likely added because SNK would be easy to get in touch with, both for Smash and for various ports
  • :ultbylethf::ultminmin:ultpyra: are all from Switch games owned by Nintendo, and appeal to the Switch playerbase
  • :ultsteve: appeals to everyone, thanks to the sheer size of Minecraft
  • :ultsephiroth: filled in the gaps with FF7's representation. While it has a Switch port, FF7 is still mostly associated with the PlayStation
To simplify it, :ultjoker::ultsephiroth: for PlayStation, :ultbanjokazooie: for hardcore Smash, :ultbylethf::ultminmin:ultpyra: for general Switch, :ultsteve: for everyone, :ulthero: for Japan (With some push on the Switch's library as a bonus), and:ult_terry: for a low-cost deal with legacy.

The thing about Smash is that there's no end-all be-all criteria for being added. Different characters have different appeals, and the selection's pretty diverse as a result. Though, the way I see it, there's a decent amount of characters who appeal to Nintendo's audiences; Depending on how you look at it, the ratio's somewhere between 4/9 and 6/9. I feel that Nintendo would be inclined to go for their own fanbase regarding Tales rather than an outside fanbase, especially considering that Lloyd's had a decent flow of requests for a while (Including around the ballot days, which Nintendo would've seen).
Actually, it makes more sense for Nintendo to pick the most popular Tales character, like they did with Cloud for Final Fantasy. You see, DLC helps bring in fans that wouldn't normally consider playing Super Smash Bros by bringing in a character they like, like with Cloud, Joker, Snake, Sonic, Ryu..pretty much any non-Nintendo character..They know Smash Fans would likely already have bought Smash and the Fighters Passes, they want to bring in more sales from outside their own fanbase.
There is also a lot of crossover and Tales of Vesperia is on Nintendo Switch now too.

Think of it similarly to how many people got into Soul Calibur thanks to Link appearing in Soul Calibur II that would otherwise not have likely got interested in the game.
The thing about Cloud is that he was unambiguously the most popular by a large margin. FF7 was a massive part of the Final Fantasy brand, while for Tales, it's more mixed. Symphonia really put the series on the map and is still the best-selling installment, Yuri is the most popular protagonist and Vesperia is on the Switch, Berseria is the most recent true release, etc. Cloud was also cited as being the most highly-requested Tales character for Smash; For Tales, that honor goes to Lloyd, even if Yuri's more popular in the context of Tales itself.
 
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Ben Holt

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I may be late to the party, but Sakurai implied that the final two fighters have figures, so this implies Rayman isn't in.
 

toonito

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At this point, how many of your most wanteds do you think have a solid chance?
Sol Badguy: don't think will get in Ultimate, could see him make it in the future
Chun-Li: don't think will get in Ultimate, I'd be surprised if she never got in
Dante: don't think will get in Ultimate, could see him make it in the future
Crash Bandicoot: could get in Ultimate or a future Smash game
Zero: don't think will get in Ultimate, could see him make it in the future
Toad: don't think will ever get in Smash
Doom Slayer: don't think will get in Ultimate, could see him make it in the future
Ryu Hayabusa: could get in Ultimate or a future Smash game

so out of my most wanted IMO Crash and Ryu have the best shot of making Ultimate
 

Ben Holt

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:ult_terry: for a low-cost deal with legacy.
I had neighbors who were Mexican immigrants, and they told me that Terry was EVERYWHERE in Mexico (and supposedly the rest of Latin America) because most people were too poor to own video games at home.
They said every little grocery store would have a NeoGeo MVS.
So Terry was likely picked for his extreme popularity in Latin America as well as decent popularity in Japan rather than just being an inexpensive pick.
 
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I had neighbors who were Mexican immigrants, and they told me that Terry was EVERYWHERE in Mexico (and supposedly the rest of Latin America) because most people were too poor to own video games at home.
They said every little grocery store would have a NeoGeo MVS.
So Terry was likely picked for his extreme popularity in Latin America as well as decent popularity in Japan rather than just being an inexpensive pick.
I'm still on the train that Terry was partially because of how much SNK contributed to the Switch in the early days. It's probably all of the above, if we want to be super accurate.
 

SpecterFlower

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Well... It varies.
  • :ultjoker: was a hot new release, with little Nintendo connections. His main demographic is the PlayStation's playerbase.
  • :ulthero: heavily pushed DQ11S, especially in the West, but they also have massive Japanese appeal by virtue of being Dragon Quest
  • :ultbanjokazooie: was added because of the Western fanbase's extreme demand for him
  • :ult_terry: has appeal in places with strong arcade scenes like Japan and Latin America, but he's a smaller character than everyone else. He's likely added because SNK would be easy to get in touch with, both for Smash and for various ports
  • :ultbylethf::ultminmin:ultpyra: are all from Switch games owned by Nintendo, and appeal to the Switch playerbase
  • :ultsteve: appeals to everyone, thanks to the sheer size of Minecraft
  • :ultsephiroth: filled in the gaps with FF7's representation. While it has a Switch port, FF7 is still mostly associated with the PlayStation
To simplify it, :ultjoker::ultsephiroth: for PlayStation, :ultbanjokazooie: for hardcore Smash, :ultbylethf::ultminmin:ultpyra: for general Switch, :ultsteve: for everyone, :ulthero: for Japan (With some push on the Switch's library as a bonus), and:ult_terry: for a low-cost deal with legacy.

The thing about Smash is that there's no end-all be-all criteria for being added. Different characters have different appeals, and the selection's pretty diverse as a result. Though, the way I see it, there's a decent amount of characters who appeal to Nintendo's audiences; Depending on how you look at it, the ratio's somewhere between 4/9 and 6/9. I feel that Nintendo would be inclined to go for their own fanbase regarding Tales rather than an outside fanbase, especially considering that Lloyd's had a decent flow of requests for a while (Including around the ballot days, which Nintendo would've seen).

The thing about Cloud is that he was unambiguously the most popular by a large margin. FF7 was a massive part of the Final Fantasy brand, while for Tales, it's more mixed. Symphonia really put the series on the map and is still the best-selling installment, Yuri is the most popular protagonist and Vesperia is on the Switch, Berseria is the most recent true release, etc. Cloud was also cited as being the most highly-requested Tales character for Smash; For Tales, that honor goes to Lloyd, even if Yuri's more popular in the context of Tales itself.
So Lloyd would appeal more to the smash fanbase while Yuri would appeal more to the Tales of fanbase.
 

SWSU

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So Lloyd would appeal more to the smash fanbase while Yuri would appeal more to the Tales of fanbase.
Yeah. It's just kind of whether they reach Banjo or Geno levels of appeal that will Determine if Tales gets a Fighter.
 

SharkLord

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So Lloyd would appeal more to the smash fanbase while Yuri would appeal more to the Tales of fanbase.
Yep, pretty much. Symphonia was a big game for the GameCube, and Lloyd stuck in the minds of Nintendo players. People saw Lloyd being pushed as the Tales rep, and contributed to that, thinking he was the main Tales guy. Meanwhile, the Tales fanbase did their own thing, and Yuri just became really popular with them.
 
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