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Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

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SharkLord

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Hmmm, i wonder if we can consider it a pattern that DLC characters shouldn't be followed by another character of the same type of genre or feel. Let's see if my theory works.

Piranha Plant- Platformer mook. Fairly unique position
Joker- JRPG protagonist set in a modern setting
Hero- Set of 4 different protagonists from a JRPG high fantasy setting
Banjo and Kazooie- Platformer protagonist of a collect-a-ton game
Terry- Fighting Game character who also doubles as the mascot for basically most of his parent company franchises.
Byleth- Protagonist avatar type character from a JRPG based on strategy in a high fantasy setting
Min Min- Fighting game "protagonist" from a rather unconventional fighting game series. She is mostly a fan favourite which is why she is here.
Steve/Alex: Avatar character of a Sandbox game where you can do and build whatever you want with a pixel artstyle.
Sephiroth: Main antagonist of the seventh entry of the Final Fantasy series, game being....High fantasy? Dark fantasy? steampunk? a bit stumped on this one

Does the pattern make sense? At least it leaves room for having a character of the same genre provided they are different enough (Just because they are from a JRPG doesn't mean Joker and Hero share anything in common)

Soooo, using this pattern i can determine that a Tales of character, if that is in the cards, is rather unlikely to be FP9 given how similar FF and Tales are in their genre though you could make the excuse that Sephiroth being a villain is different enough. It can later though.
I think it'd be more accurate to look at the positions the characters are in. Min Min's from a recent Nintendo game, Steve is from an extremely popular third-party, and Sephiroth is a villain from an already-represented game. Lloyd is a character from a fairly popular and influential third-party without playable representation, so I'd say he's pretty safe.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Hi! Just wanted to come back in and say I did some more math stuffs. However, this time, I used math to gauge Fighter 9's potential background colors. This is the results I got.


If you're wondering how I did it, here's an explanation.

  • I ratioed the RGB values of each DLC character background. The DLC character that releases after another has its value in the numerator, while the predecessor is in the denominator. So, essentially DLC2/DLC1.
  • I then document the current average, along with all the past averages.
  • This is important, because I take all the past averages, including the current one, and make it my Y-axis. The X-axis then represents the number of terms being divided in that specific average.
  • I then map a function to it that is the closest match to the data.
  • From there, my goal is to figure out how that average might evolve over time using the function.
  • I then plug that average into the average equation I want to use, and work backwards to find my values.

If you want some screenshots from my setup, here you go!

So... basically, what does this mean? Well, statistically speaking, it seems like Fighter 9 could be trending towards a Green or Blue background, based on past data.

In terms of character speculation though? I'd say... not much since this will most likely be wrong I imagine. But, hey, this was fun to do! Let me know what you guys think!
It's 10 pages back but holy **** I've never seen anybody put this much work into what the next color hex could be.


Green looks the most promising since Steve's background color is already blue, and I already pictured which 2 characters would match with green. Of course, this could absolutely not matter at all, but I sure would love to see if this ends up holding up well.
 

Firox

Smash Master
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Hmmm, i wonder if we can consider it a pattern that DLC characters shouldn't be followed by another character of the same type of genre or feel. Let's see if my theory works.

Piranha Plant- Platformer mook. Fairly unique position
Joker- JRPG protagonist set in a modern setting
Hero- Set of 4 different protagonists from a JRPG high fantasy setting
Banjo and Kazooie- Platformer protagonist of a collect-a-ton game
Terry- Fighting Game character who also doubles as the mascot for basically most of his parent company franchises.
Byleth- Protagonist avatar type character from a JRPG based on strategy in a high fantasy setting
Min Min- Fighting game "protagonist" from a rather unconventional fighting game series. She is mostly a fan favourite which is why she is here.
Steve/Alex: Avatar character of a Sandbox game where you can do and build whatever you want with a pixel artstyle.
Sephiroth: Main antagonist of the seventh entry of the Final Fantasy series, game being....High fantasy? Dark fantasy? steampunk? a bit stumped on this one

Does the pattern make sense? At least it leaves room for having a character of the same genre provided they are different enough (Just because they are from a JRPG doesn't mean Joker and Hero share anything in common)

Soooo, using this pattern i can determine that a Tales of character, if that is in the cards, is rather unlikely to be FP9 given how similar FF and Tales are in their genre though you could make the excuse that Sephiroth being a villain is different enough. It can later though.
I've been noticing the same pattern. Sakurai/Nintendo tends to avoid releasing a character too similar in moveset or genre right after another. That said, I predict that the next DLC character will NOT be a swordfighter or a character from a JRPG. While I know that the latter point is fairly broad, the former about not having another swordfighter I think is relevant because it favors brawler type characters (like Rayman, Crash, Ryu, etc) and gunner type characters (Doomguy, Master Chief, etc.). Interestingly, we haven't really gotten a single gunner-type DLC yet (I don't count Joker's Gun move since it isn't really integral to his playstyle). So far, I've analyzed the DLC by fighter type:

-PP=Zoning Brawler
-Joker=Brawler
-Hero=Swordie
-Banjo=Zoning Brawler (maybe technically a gunner-type hybrid?)
-Terry=Brawler
-Byleth=Swordie (for the most part)
-Min Min=Zoning Brawler
-Steve=Brawler
-Sephiroth=Swordie

So by this pattern, are we looking at another zoning brawler or a gunner? I've got a hunch it could be something like Rayman or Doomguy/MC.
 
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Powerman293

Smash Ace
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Does someone have a handy PNG of all the mii costumes missing from Smash 4 that are back in Ultimate now?
 

Pupp135

Smash Lord
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I'm assuming that there will be another Nintendo character for DLC, and I'm wondering if a promotional pick like Ring Fit Trainee, Cinderace, Rex, or to a smaller degree, Tom Nook, is more likely than a legacy pick like Toad or Dixie or a requested pick like Waluigi (He's not my favorite, but If anyone breaks the assist rule, it's him, and other "rules" were broken like "no spirits," "only one unique third party per series," "FP1 is only third party".
 

3BitSaurus

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fighters pass 2 has been revealed
View attachment 296832
(you wouldn't imagine how many times I had to reset to add a character who isn't already in the game. It was hellbent on making Wario FP11.)
I don't know which is scarier: Toad having a long tongue, Captain N working in the Krusty Krab or Bubble Bobble being a part of the Adventure Time universe.

Meh, who am I kidding, it's Toad with a long tongue.
 

RetrogamerMax

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I remember hearing a rumor that K. Rool was planned to be a bonus boss in the Switch version of Tropical Freeze but was cut, presumably because Nintendo wanted his grand return to be in Smash.

Absolutely no clue if this was true or not and I can't remember where I heard it so take it with a grain of salt.
The DK Vine co-founder Hyle Russell said that. BKupa666 BKupa666 posted a thread about it right here: https://smashboards.com/threads/news-how-fans-brought-back-k-rool.457451/ Retro wanted to bring back K. Rool as a boss in Tropical Freeze but was denied that request from Nintendo because Sakurai wanted to call dips on reviving and bringing K. Rool by putting him in Smash. That is what happened according to Hyle Russell's source Dave Throat.
 

Lionfranky

Smash Lord
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Honestly I believe that Doom Guy interview that everyone keeps bringing up has the potential to be all smoke and mirrors just to draw attention away from him. Anyone can make a dis-conformation sound convincing so I don't believe the interview really changes anything for Doom Guy.
NDA is a thing for good reason. Both parties should have signed that up to stop leaking crucial information like discussion. So why go through such detailed interviews to risk breaching contract? Why would Nintendo allow him to say that much?
 

RetrogamerMax

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As someone who only joined this site during Ultimate's lifecycle, I am a little out of the loop, do all the support threads and the newcomer thread just shut down as soon as Nintendo says the DLC is finished or something? Do people have to start "intergame" character support threads that aren't for Ultimate, but just for the hypothetical next game for each character, or we don't even have that and there's only just a social thread and competitive metagame discussion? This site did luck out in that the time period between Smash 4 and Ultimate was relatively short due to the Wii U and the Switch's timing in release cycles., I can't imagine a Melee/Brawl timeskip or Brawl/Smash 4 timeskip would do to this site in terms of dead speculation.

This question ain't directed at you specifically since you joined after me, rather anyone who was here long enough during the Smash 4/Ultimate interperiod or Brawl/Smash 4 interperiod.
I wasn't here on Smashboards during Smash 4 speculation, but I was on the Smash Sub-Reddit during that time. I would sometimes take a peek at what was going on here back then and the mods announced thetly were closing up shop for Smash 4 speculation with a week or two from Bayonetta's announcement since it was heavily hinted that the next newcomer her would be Smash 4's last newcomer. They did obviously so there wouldn't be major flame wars among the fanbases after the roster was finished. I think Ultimate speculation didn't start here until early 2017 way before Ultimate was announced. But yeah, speculation for Smash ends here around the time last newcomer is announced amd it sarts for the next game about a year or two before it's announced or released.
 

RetrogamerMax

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Yeah, in Smash 4. It was such a weird omission because it was such a generic costume that you would think it'd just be some base game unlockable but it's not. I came up with this dumb theory that it was going to be repurposed as a Lazy Shell Hat from Super Mario RPG to come along with Geno and well that didn't turn out like I thought. I'm not sure who's jumping at their seats to buy a Red Shell cap for their Miis (other than me.)
If the Red Shall Mii hat comes back, maybe it will come back with Waluigi if he's happening.
 

BKupa666

Barnacled Boss
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The DK Vine co-founder Hyle Russell said that. BKupa666 BKupa666 posted a thread about it right here: https://smashboards.com/threads/news-how-fans-brought-back-k-rool.457451/ Retro wanted to bring back K. Rool as a boss in Tropical Freeze but was denied that request from Nintendo because Sakurai wanted to call dips on reviving and bringing K. Rool by putting him in Smash. That is what happened according to Hyle Russell's source Dave Throat.
To clarify, “K. Rool as a bonus boss conceptualized for the Tropical Freeze port” did not come from DK Vine’s podcast, but rather was a tidbit I confirmed independently through multiple sources. As I have edited that thread a long time ago to say, I also do not like the phrase “called dibs,” because Sakurai does not have this unilateral authority over what other studios like Retro do, rather Nintendo made that call presumably because by that point Sakurai had chosen K. Rool for Ultimate, where his return was to take place.
 

epicmartin7

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It's 10 pages back but holy **** I've never seen anybody put this much work into what the next color hex could be.


Green looks the most promising since Steve's background color is already blue, and I already pictured which 2 characters would match with green. Of course, this could absolutely not matter at all, but I sure would love to see if this ends up holding up well.
Fun fact. The colors I posted here, I also posted on twitter and I got a response from a physics teacher bot for a completely irrelevant tweet lmao.

1608680986561.png

That was one way to make my day :p
 
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3BitSaurus

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Fun fact. The colors I posted here, I also posted on twitter and I got a response from a physics teacher bot for a completely irrelevant tweet lmao.

View attachment 296834
That was one way to make my day :p
"Now, kids, the Smash Ultimate Character Background equation will fall on the next test! Also, don't forget to study on your Amiibo release dates!"

Because they get closed and deleted almost as soon as they are made
Uuuuuh, why?

That just seems... unnecessary.
 

Professor Pumpkaboo

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Uuuuuh, why?

That just seems... unnecessary.
Well, if you are a kid and your mom takes your laptop away temporarily and said "you'll get this back when I give it to you" and you go into her room and take your laptop back, common sense says say thats a big no no, right?I

No I didnt do this as a kid...nope
 
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3BitSaurus

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It does.
Mods closed the threads, people create another one and complain that it get shut down.
???
Yeah, but like... why is the opption closed in the first place?

Maybe I'm out of the loop, really, but I hardly see a reason for that. Dunno, maybe someone can DM me so it doesn't derail discussion here, but as far as I can see, there's nothing that should prevent people from making a thread.
 
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TheCJBrine

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Yeah, but like... why?

Maybe I'm out of the loop, really, but I hardly see a reason for that. Dunno, maybe someone can DM me so it doesn't derail discussion here, but as far as I can see, there's nothing that should prevent people from making a thread.
The staff members haven't fully decided on what they're going to do with the current thread, and idk why new threads aren't allowed but I guess it's to prevent whatever behavior caused them to lock up the first thread, although a new Waluigi thread was allowed (but it was made after some months I think, so time is needed I believe).
 
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3BitSaurus

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The staff members haven't fully decided on what they're going to do with the current thread, and idk why new threads aren't allowed but I guess it's to prevent whatever behavior caused them to lock up the first thread.
Ah, I see. So it basically falls into the "no duplicate threads rule". I thought the old one was deleted, not just blocked, so I didn't really think there was anything wrong with them making new ones.

Thanks for explaining.
 
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Powerman293

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The worst thing about the mods shutting down the Geno thread is that it's still kind sus that ZERO DLC characters have had any overlap with Mii Costumes, meaning the dev team is avoiding stepping on the toes of 5 year old DLC Mii Costumes for no reason. Meaning there's TECHNICALLY still hope for Geno. Albeit extremely small.
 
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TCT~Phantom

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The worst thing about the mods shutting down the Geno thread is that it's still kind sus that ZERO DLC characters have had any overlap with Mii Costumes, meaning the dev team is avoiding stepping on the toes of 5 year old DLC Mii Costumes for no reason. Meaning there's TECHNICALLY still hope for Geno. Albeit extremely small.
...or the mods did not want to deal with a thread that was already getting trolled quite hard and had some toxic comments in it and was over 3000 pages long? Long threads, as the Newcomer Speculation thread has shown, can be a hassle for servers. Combine that with a thread that would only attract more trolls after the mii costume reveal and breed more toxicity, it makes sense to close it for a time. Not saying all geno fans are toxic, but I went in there and not naming names but there were some toxic posts as early as when Sephiroth was revealed.
 

PLATINUM7

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The new Smash update just went live for me.
 

TriggerX

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Meh, keeping that thread open did seem like a complicated matter. More often than not the Geno thread was off topic anyways. In my opinion it functioned more as a 2nd newcomers thread or another character thread at others. The regulars are passionate about Geno as a character, but it almost seems like that passion probably exhausted any relevant talking points surrounding the character. It also seemed to attract its fair share of trolls, which understandably isn't the thread regulars' fault, but the trolling would snowball into a "pity party" since some users were too focused on how others view their fan base. I believe the sum of all those issues resulted in that thread getting off topic quite a bit. It is what it is.

I'd love to see that fan base channel that passion into a fan game that could get Nintendo's/Square's attention. They are a creative bunch and they probably know the series better than Nintendo or Square at this point.

That being said, the only way I see Geno still having a chance is if a 3rd fighter pass is a thing. Seems like both FP1 and FP2 were decided on years ago. I've mentioned this in the geno thread, but In addition to his mii costume, both his and Mallow's spirits were in base game. I think this was done this way because there wasn't going to be another opportunity to bring smrpg spirits in later since ff spirits were going to accompany seph.

Which leads me to believe that SMRPG is unlikely to get any kind of event like the mana series did because I think if that had been the case, I feel like they would have avoided Mallow's spirit and saved him for a spirit event.

With that series out of the running in my mind, I think we'll get something from Namco-Bandai for sure, like 100%. I also think we will get some kind of animal based character 100%. I also can't imagine this pass closing out without at least one more Nintendo rep.

So I guess my list right now is

-Lloyd(Or some Tales of Rep)
-Okami
-Crash
-Sora
-Tails/Eggman
(Echoes or alternates of each other, may explain voice theory if they are represented similiary to their SA2 appearance) (May leave certain fan bases slightly salty, because technically it would mean Tails is the first character to get mii costumed yet still make it in as DLC. I think it works cuz in a round a bout way the costume offers something completely different than what the actual character does. )
-Paper Mario
-Ryu Hayabusa


As far as characters that don't seem likely to me despite multiple people mentioning, I'd have to say Master Chief and Doomslayer. Master Chief needs something on the Switch, and its possible that some kind of Halo port is brewing, but until that happens I don't see it coming. Doomslayer is just too violent, or at least the series he hails from promotes it too much. I'm aware of Bayonetta, but I think she is going to be that one exception that squeezed into smash because Nintendo has a vested interest in that series.
 

Ben Holt

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Final wishes before 10.1.0 goes live:
  • Replace Alucard's Spirit Battle with Sephiroth
  • Give Cloud's Fighter Spirit the actual artwork from FF7 (or remake)
Confirmed! Cloud's Spirit has been updated!
But Alucard's Spirit Battle is still Simon.
EDIT: :ultgreninja: 'd
 
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Guynamednelson

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I'm glad the Mii Fighters don't just have the default faces in the FFVII spirit battles. Guess they had to do that since the Mii costumes don't come with wigs.
 
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