Saw someone quote this from before and wanted to reflect a bit.
Speculation in general... I started back in Smash 4, and the situation is definitely a lot different now. Looking back between the two though, I gotta say, base roster has been
significantly easier to predict than DLC. For reference:
Base Game Newcomers I Predicted:
/
DLC Newcomers I Predicted:
(Although I expected them in FP2 instead)
Conditionally:
(Predicted her out of the ARMS characters, but I wasn't predicting an ARMS character), (Vergeben)
I can't speak for everyone, but I doubt I'm alone in this kind of ratio. DLC generally seems to work a lot differently and we're still figuring out exactly how to wrap our heads around it. But, in general, I think it's been getting easier.
As it stands, I'd say the big shocking DLC reveals (minus Plant) were these three right here:
I'm sure we can be surprised again, but this fact remains and I think most people can agree with it:
The surprise of Joker / Terry / Sephiroth (individually) can never happen again. At least not really in the same way.
Joker opened up the discussion to more modern icons and characters further separated from Nintendo. Terry opened it up to smaller series and companies that the community had been glossing over. Sephiroth reminded people that third-party series can actually get more characters. Are there more barriers to break? Yeah probably, but... the fact that we're discussing characters like Sora and Master Chief without a shred of irony speaks volumes. The fact that people in this community even know what the **** Falcom is means a lot. We've come a long way and it's getting harder and harder to really shock people.
The rest of our surprises were more situational. Byleth was expected to be FP2, Steve was highly discussed but just fell off for a while, Pyra / Mythra were heavily speculated but just didn't come with Rex. I wouldn't say the characters themselves were surprising, just the contexts of their inclusions. Hell, in general I think FP2 has been a lot more surface level. We have two characters from major Switch titles, and another two of the most popular video game characters of all time. FP1 was more of a wildcard pack.
I'd love to be proven wrong, but I think we've dried the well of feasible rules to break... outside of maybe like "never appeared on Nintendo" or like, the one per company "rule", but those don't feel so set in stone anymore to begin with and the possibilities have been discussed in depth already. I know that a lot of people hold this perspective that no matter what we can NEVER predict what comes next, but I disagree. In general I've grown kinda tired of hearing that, because it's a generalization and refusing to think about
why we were wrong before and get ahead of the game next time.
I just think that it took a while for the full picture to become clearer. We've never had Nintendo explicitly choose all the characters. We're pretty much playing by a whole different ruleset now, so it's natural for that to have been harder to grasp at first - but with time comes understanding, and I can't imagine it getting any crazier than Joker or Sephiroth nor can that same level of "what the **** how is this possible" ever happen again, because we KNOW it's possible now. But hey, I'll be the first to laugh and say they totally got me next time if they decide to drop some megaton groundbreaking reveal once again.