I saw the thread had another Cacamallow debate, and this inspired this sort of writeup.
I think someone was mentioning this a few pages ago, but basically most of the companies in the game already in terms of third parties seem to some degree unlikely to get a new character. Capcom dropped the load with Pythra, Konami had Bomberman show up as a deluxe mii...without a Konami rep, Namco speculation is dire for so many reasons (being a Lloyd fan is suffering), SNK basically did everything with Terry, and Square and Microsoft already got characters and I doubt we would get a double dip. That leaves Sega (and by extension Atlus) as the last real refuge for a third party that is already in the game.
I also personally think that outside of the bonus spot, first parties imo are a bit of a tough sell. Min Min and Pythra do show spirits do not deconfirm. Yes, that's true. But it also shows a real desire from Nintendo to represent what is new-ish and hot on the switch. Same for Byleth. Now, this would not be an issue...if there spirit events were not such a death knell. Why would you put out content for big releases like Sword and Shield, Astral Chain, or Ring Fit that could be used for their spirit board? Yes, in theory you could just re use the content, but was we saw with Byleth Nintendo is more than willing to delay a spirit event in order to push content with its Character. Also Astral Chain (rip Officer Howard
) and Ring Fit had their events right after the pass was finalized, while Pokemon's was right before, giving it very little wiggle room. IMO, I think first parties for the most part are done.
So we basically have a situation where our candidates, at least in my eyes, are either from Sega or from new third parties. I personally have two new third party companies repped in my final predictions, but even then new companies are not safe from deconfirmations. Remember Hayabusa? Hayabusa was one of the trademark safe picks on here, and he got shot down in interviews multiple times.I have said this before and I will say it again. One "big" third party at E3, one "small" third party revealed last. If the bonus exists it would be likely shown at the end too.
I don't feel like digging to find who was the person who voiced that speculation was exhausting because of how many people seemed unlikely, but with this information it is clear why they would be like that. First parties and the third parties in the game seem like they won't get anything else save Sega. I think it is no secret that Smashboards is a place where these older requests and first parties are seen in a better light. There is a reason that the Ridley, K Rool, Banjo, Geno, Isaac, and Dixie threads were/are so massive. I can see why that to some people, speculation is not in a "fun" phase. The other reason I think speculation has entered such a circular phase is that there is not much to talk about. FP3 seems dead, the bonus spot speculation is already exhausted, and there does not seem to be any news coming until June. There is not much specifically to talk about or speculate on, there's a reason that Cacamallow debate number 473 happened the other day.
I'll make some write ups on my FP predictions later, but overall I just wanted to basically give my thoughts on DLC going forward and why some people might be going in circles on here.